Easiest Triple Crown Race to Handicap

[Smarty Cide]

What do you guys think is the easiest triple crown race to handicap?

I think its the Preakness, you get to use info from the derby and the belmont is too much of a crap shoot for the distance.

I already plan on betting the preakness either a WIN bet on BODE if I can get 3-1 or better or if he is less then 3-1 then going BODE W/ ALL


Thoughts?

[Smarty Cide]

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-preakness-bodemeister-looks-sharp-mile-jog

[ten2oneormore]

I don't think there is any chance of getting 3-1 on Bode.Everyone will bet him as a sure thing without Trinni in there.I think you almost have to go against him or pass.I agree with the Preakness being the easiest.

[Smarty Cide]

I don't think there is any chance of getting 3-1 on Bode.Everyone will bet him as a sure thing without Trinni in there.I think you almost have to go against him or pass.I agree with the Preakness being the easiest.

hard to go against him because he is as much of a lock as you can have when it comes to animals running in a circle

[David-LV]

hard to go against him because he is as much of a lock as you can have when it comes to animals running in a circle

The only locks (lox) I ever had was on a bagel.:lol:

_______
David-LV

[sovereign]

What do you guys think is the easiest triple crown race to handicap?

I think its the Preakness, you get to use info from the derby and the belmont is too much of a crap shoot for the distance.

I already plan on betting the preakness either a WIN bet on BODE if I can get 3-1 or better or if he is less then 3-1 then going BODE W/ ALL


Thoughts?
Actually, I look at it as a chance for my Derby pick that lost to reedeem himself.
Shackleford. Afleet Alex. Curlin. Stuff like that.

If I can get 8/1 on Went the Day Well, I will pound him with both hands.

[lamboguy]

for me its always been the kentucky derby, not that i have made to many bets through the years, but i have always found big value in the place and show pools. i remember getting over $4.00 pm Empire Maker to show, and the same with Afleet Alex. you can basically bet whatever your heart desires and you won't budge the show pool more than .20.

[bigbobsports]

I am actually looking ahead to the Belmont as I really think Creative Cause will just make that one sweep to go the distance and just pass everybody like they are standing still.I thought Creative Cause ran a monster race being extremely wide in the Derby to the final turn and in stretch. The layoff/pass on the Preakness and back home in sunny California before the trip east should have this horse right on his toes to get the money

[Robert Goren]

I have feeling the odds on "Bode" will be so low that he will be a strong play against. One of most profitable angles is betting on horses who beat the same front runner in his last race but for some reason the front runner is favored today. I am not much on the bounce theory, but there was ever a horse that was going to bounce, it is "Bode" He will have had 2 all out efforts in the last 5 weeks. To ask for a third in a distance race is bit much.

[098poi]

Even if Bode went off at 7/2 would that really be your best "value" 7/2 that you could find in the next week out of all the races being run? If it is important to you to have a bet in the Preakness which I understand ( I made a bunch of bets in the Derby really just to participate not because I saw some incredible opportunity, I lost) then go for it. Otherwise pounce on something more solid. And Bode won't be 7/2 but you get my point.

[1st time lasix]

Even if Bode went off at 7/2 would that really be your best "value" 7/2 that you could find in the next week out of all the races being run? If it is important to you to have a bet in the Preakness which I understand ( I made a bunch of bets in the Derby really just to participate not because I saw some incredible opportunity, I lost) then go for it. Otherwise pounce on something more solid. And Bode won't be 7/2 but you get my point.
"I'll have Another" at 15 to 1 when he had been running very competetively with Bode and Creative? A $300 exacta result.....I would call that a pretty good three horse box "opportunity" Just sayin'

[RXB]

I have feeling the odds on "Bode" will be so low that he will be a strong play against. One of most profitable angles is betting on horses who beat the same front runner in his last race but for some reason the front runner is favored today. I am not much on the bounce theory, but there was ever a horse that was going to bounce, it is "Bode" He will have had 2 all out efforts in the last 5 weeks. To ask for a third in a distance race is bit much.

I was going to note that the bounce theory doesn't really hold up for the Derby-Preakness move because I had checked earlier and found that of the past 50 Preakness runnings, the Derby winner had won 18 or 19 (depending on whether or not you include the controversial Derby "win" by Forward Pass).

Out of curiosity, I checked to see how the second-place Derby finishers had done in the Preakness. 34 of the 50 most recent Derby runners-up ran in the Preakness. Interesting results: 22 of the 34 finished in the money-- but only 2 wins compared to 12 seconds and 8 thirds.

[Valuist]

I think we will see Bodemeister 3-2, I'll Have Another 5-2 and Creative Cause about 9-2.

[cj]

I think we will see Bodemeister 3-2, I'll Have Another 5-2 and Creative Cause about 9-2.

I say no more than even money on Bodemeister.

[098poi]

"I'll have Another" at 15 to 1 when he had been running very competetively with Bode and Creative? A $300 exacta result.....I would call that a pretty good three horse box "opportunity" Just sayin'

Yes but IHA won and Smarty Cide was talking about a win bet or a Bode W/All, may be a winner, but no lock, and I doubt much return as that will be a common bet. Just saying there is probably another place to look for that kind of value.

[RXB]

I was going to note that the bounce theory doesn't really hold up for the Derby-Preakness move because I had checked earlier and found that of the past 50 Preakness runnings, the Derby winner had won 18 or 19 (depending on whether or not you include the controversial Derby "win" by Forward Pass).

Out of curiosity, I checked to see how the second-place Derby finishers had done in the Preakness. 34 of the 50 most recent Derby runners-up ran in the Preakness. Interesting results: 22 of the 34 finished in the money-- but only 2 wins compared to 12 seconds and 8 thirds.

Slight change to the runners-up numbers as I missed one Preakness returner and accidentally placed one Preakness show horse as a place horse. Anyway, here are the stats of Derby in-the-money horses returning in the Preakness over the past 50 years:

Derby winners: 47/19-10-6 (40% wins, 74% ITM)
Runners-up: 35/ 2-11-9 (6% wins, 63% ITM)
3rd finishers: 37/ 8-5-8 (22% wins, 57% ITM)
2nd/3rd combined: 72/10-16-17 (14% wins, 60% ITM)

Derby form holds up pretty well overall, and there's a definite tendency for these horses to repeat their Derby finish position in the Preakness. It even holds for the Derby fourth finishers (only 18 of the last 50 ran in the Preakness; 5 of them finished fourth).

[sammy the sage]

I say no more than even money on Bodemeister.
I'm really hoping you're right...cause he AIN'T winning...

My greatest fear is that he'll scratch :bang:

[burnsy]

I think we will see Bodemeister 3-2, I'll Have Another 5-2 and Creative Cause about 9-2.
the preakness is the easiest to handicap and in recent history it produces the most logical results.....if the track comes up fast with no rain....theres your exacta box. if it pays close to 25 to 35 bucks its money in the bank. if creative cause wins, it could pay even better. from the probables i've seen the only other one i would consider is went the day well. if he can get in there you might make a few more bucks.