Odds of a horse winning the TC in any year

[maddog42]

I have a question for you. What would the odds be of IHA winning the TC if he wins the Preakness? What would the odds drop to? 6-1? 10-1?
3-1?
I usually think of myself as an odds-maker, so I decided to "get serious" about making an odds line for this event (Triple Crown). I noticed that the TC winners usually come in clusters: 4 tc winners in the forties, 3 in the 70"s. None since.
I decided to not use the horses in the 40's for a baseline, but you have to start somehwere. I decided 1960 was reasonable. Sort of the beginning of the Modern Era. Long drought before Secretariat Won, and then Whammo! 3 in 5 years.
From a statistical point of view this is not that strange. A 25 year drought followed by a 34 year drought.
There were 8 winners between 1919 and 1960, for a 1 every five year average. There have been 3 winners since 1960, (all in the 70's). It definitely is harder to win nowadays. There have been so many close calls in the last 23
years though, that I know it is not as hard as many would tell us. Bad Luck,
it would seem.
18 horses have won 2 out of 3 since 1979. That is over 50%!!! As a betting man if you had suggested that would happen in the next 33 years without
a triple crown winner, I would have said you were crazy. Don't let that long dry spell fool you .It will happen. Apparently winning 2 of 3 isn't that hard. This is also not counting a few times a horse was unable to compete in that 3rd leg. I am serious. I know it is grueling and hard on horses, but it just flies in the face of normalcy that that many won 2 of 3 with no TC winners. Weird!!!
I am sure the breeding for speed has caused some of this long dry spell. Mordin makes this very good point in one of his books. But that doesn't explain it all. 7 of those 18 have won the Belmont and lost one of the other 2.
All that said I don't think the odds of winning the TC is over 20-1.
Tell me your opinion.

[depalma113]

His odds would be the same as his odds of winning the Belmont.

[tucker6]

I have a question for you. What would the odds be of IHA winning the TC if he wins the Preakness? What would the odds drop to? 6-1? 10-1?
3-1?
I usually think of myself as an odds-maker, so I decided to "get serious" about making an odds line for this event (Triple Crown). I noticed that the TC winners usually come in clusters: 4 tc winners in the forties, 3 in the 70"s. None since.
I decided to not use the horses in the 40's for a baseline, but you have to start somehwere. I decided 1960 was reasonable. Sort of the beginning of the Modern Era. Long drought before Secretariat Won, and then Whammo! 3 in 5 years.
From a statistical point of view this is not that strange. A 25 year drought followed by a 34 year drought.
There were 8 winners between 1919 and 1960, for a 1 every five year average. There have been 3 winners since 1960, (all in the 70's). It definitely is harder to win nowadays. There have been so many close calls in the last 23
years though, that I know it is not as hard as many would tell us. Bad Luck,
it would seem.
18 horses have won 2 out of 3 since 1979. That is over 50%!!! As a betting man if you had suggested that would happen in the next 33 years without
a triple crown winner, I would have said you were crazy. Don't let that long dry spell fool you .It will happen. Apparently winning 2 of 3 isn't that hard. This is also not counting a few times a horse was unable to compete in that 3rd leg. I am serious. I know it is grueling and hard on horses, but it just flies in the face of normalcy that that many won 2 of 3 with no TC winners. Weird!!!
I am sure the breeding for speed has caused some of this long dry spell. Mordin makes this very good point in one of his books. But that doesn't explain it all. 7 of those 18 have won the Belmont and lost one of the other 2.
All that said I don't think the odds of winning the TC is over 20-1.
Tell me your opinion.
I would venture that top flight jockeys that can keep their heads during three straight TC races are more rare now than in the 70's. Thus you have the brain freezes we've seen over the last 25 or so years in the Belmont especially.

[horses4courses]

Figuring the odds of a TC winner?
Simple math.
True odds? Not so simple.......

The only horse who can win the TC each year is, obviously, the one which wins the first leg at CD. His/her odds of winning the next two legs amount to a straight parlay.
Are those the true odds of winning the TC? Not even close.

Theories as to why it's been so long since a TC winner abound.
The most compelling of these seems to be modern day breeding.
The need for speed, as opposed to stamina.
"They're just not as tough as they used to be", etc.
Whatever you deem to be the reason, it's hard to believe the drought will end any time soon.

Every year before the Derby, a local racebook (Lake Tahoe, NV) posts proposition odds on there being a TC winner this year. 11-1 odds were posted a couple of months back. Did I bet it? No. Was I tempted to? Yes.
I know full well that an 11-1 Preakness/Belmont parlay is decent value.
Heck, if Bodemeister (or any of the leading lights) had won the Derby impressively, 11-1 would be a bargain compared to a let-it-ride parlay on the next 2 races. Value, or not, history tells you not to pull the trigger.

Simple math becomes more complicated when you factor in TC history.
Truth is, you should get paid more than you would by cashing a couple of win tickets over the next five weeks. Hard to beat the thrill, though.

Good luck!

[maddog42]

Figuring the odds of a TC winner?
Simple math.
True odds? Not so simple.......

The only horse who can win the TC each year is, obviously, the one which wins the first leg at CD. His/her odds of winning the next two legs amount to a straight parlay.
Are those the true odds of winning the TC? Not even close.

Theories as to why it's been so long since a TC winner abound.
The most compelling of these seems to be modern day breeding.
The need for speed, as opposed to stamina.
"They're just not as tough as they used to be", etc.
Whatever you deem to be the reason, it's hard to believe the drought will end any time soon.

Every year before the Derby, a local racebook (Lake Tahoe, NV) posts proposition odds on there being a TC winner this year. 11-1 odds were posted a couple of months back. Did I bet it? No. Was I tempted to? Yes.
I know full well that an 11-1 Preakness/Belmont parlay is decent value.
Heck, if Bodemeister (or any of the leading lights) had won the Derby impressively, 11-1 would be a bargain compared to a let-it-ride parlay on the next 2 races. Value, or not, history tells you not to pull the trigger.

Simple math becomes more complicated when you factor in TC history.
Truth is, you should get paid more than you would by cashing a couple of win tickets over the next five weeks. Hard to beat the thrill, though.

Good luck! I am glad you made the distinction between the TC and a straight parlay. Vast Difference. Usually parlays are placed on different horses
winning different races usually on the same day. The TC is of course a parlay on the same horse running 3 races in five weeks. I think 11-1 is probably light. This being also grade 1 3 yo's makes for additional problems. It also allows for a hefty profit margin for the house, of probably 30%. Personally, I think 11-1 is a sucker bet. My initial odds line(10-1) that I posted in another thread was very naive. As usual the race books have it about right. If pressed for actual odds on a tc winner in any given year it would be 16-1.

[Striker]

IHA is 7-1 to win the TC right now at the WYNN.

[horses4courses]

IHA is 7-1 to win the TC right now at the WYNN.

Those odds are based strictly on a Preakness/Belmont parlay.
John Avello figures IHA @ 3-1 for Pimlico, even money in NY.
Textbook stuff.

[maddog42]

IHA is 7-1 to win the TC right now at the WYNN.
I would take that action all day long too. Super sucker bet!! That means they think the real odd are 9-1,10-1 maybe higher. Their job is to make money, so I
can't fault them too much. I love IHA and I can't make him less than 12-1 with
Bode in the Preakness. I hope I am wrong. I am wrong all the time. I would give my left testicle to see IHA win the TC, but it probably won't happen.