Real-life example of good handicapping and bad results

[dav4463]

I played 18 races today, had 6 winners on top and lost $150 !!!

IF and it is a BIG IF .....!

If I would have played $20 win on each of my top choices, I would have made a profit of $82

If I would have played my top choice on top with next five picks underneath in the exacta, I would have had a profit of $170

If I would have played a 1x5x5 $1 trifecta wheel, I would have made a profit of $818.60

If I would have played a $36 superfecta wheel of 1x4x4x5, I would have hit two for a profit of $692.70


Woulda, coulda, shoulda......I searched for value, played too many second and third and fourth choice longshots and managed to lose $150..

Anybody else ever have this problem. What is the answer? Should I trust my own top choice in almost every instance or keep searching for the elusive "value" play ?

[JustRalph]

when I first started playing.......my Dad would catch me spreading on a bunch of horses trying to catch the exotics. he would only say one thing

"Son, you can't play them all, you gotta take a stand somewhere. Find your horse and right or wrong, play him"

He has been gone almost two years now and I still hear that sometimes.........usually when I am playing a race I should be passing.........think about whether or not you should have passed some of those races you posted.

[cato]

Is this a one day aberration or is it a trend? Obviously if this is happening often, you have a profitable method that you are ignoring for the sake of chasing theoretical "Value"

It gets us nto the discussion of what is value?

Certainly a top choice at 6-5, in my book, is not worth a bet no matter what...even if you have him at 3-5.

But a top choice at 5-2 starts looking pretty good even if you have a 2d, 3rd or 4th choice at much higher odds. I've chased those rabbit trails and they come up empty more often than not.

So I've started re-thinking this same issue and PASSING the races where my top choice is REALLY low odds, betting a top choice with moderate odds and betting a high odds choice only if it has some pace advantage or angle going for it.

The best thing I've done for my handicaping is listening to Miles Davis while I'm working on the races.:cool:

Stay tuned

Cato

[BillW]

Dave,

One thing that will guarantee continual losses is daily knee jerk changes to your approach based on yesterday's results. I remember a thread on here where someone recommended playing for 6 months to build up some wagering data to examine. Using that data would allow sorting out winning from losing. Search for it, any maybe consider an approach similar to what is discussed there.

Bill

[dav4463]

I am going over all my past results right now, sorting out my top choice based on the type of race, odds, and whether or not I really liked a longshot in the race as well. Maybe I will try that Miles Davis thing too !! I am though, definitely noticing a trend when I pass up a solid top choice trying to catch too many longshots instead of waiting for those races where the longshot is one of my top two picks.

[GameTheory]

You must realize when you play "for value" that you are always going to be sacrificing win % for greater payoffs. So they'll be plenty of days when your top picks are underlays and win anyways. Of course, some times your top picks are overlays and that is the best scenario. I recommend you read Steve Fierro's book.

One simple rule is to never bet against a legitmate favorite -- if your top horse is also the public favorite, but the odds are too low on it to bet on it, pass the race, or figure out how to play that horse in the exotics. That will save you lots of losses...

[alysheba88]

I too recommend Fierro's book. Would also recommend you deciding IN ADVANCE, what % of your bankroll goes towards win, what goes to exactas, tri's and so on.

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by dav4463
Should I trust my own top choice in almost every instance or keep searching for the elusive "value" play ?

What percentage of your bets does your top choice win? What is the average payout? This will determine whether it's profitable to play on a steady basis.

-LCII

[kenwoodallpromos]

All other advice as to how much to bet except yours and mine is BS! If you are a good handicapper you will bet the same amount on each type of bet (and win) and only increase when your bankroll is built up sufficiently! Anything else loses! Your answer is in your question! / If you bet the exact amount each time and lose, email me because you would be handicapping wrong!

[dav4463]

Thanks for all the great replies. I just used the $20 base bet as a hypothetical situation to compare the profit playing the same amount on exactas, trifectas, and win. A $4 exacta wheel with 5 horses underneath cost $20....a $1 trifecta wheel with 5 horses underneath costs $20 and then I can compare the profits to a $20 win bet. It is just a way to see which bet is showing a better profit....

[Niko]

I think Game Theory summed it up beautifully. One of my resolutions this year is to stop wheeling and back-wheeling in the exotics. I had second-itis for a while and fell into a bad trap of back-wheeling which caused me to lose all "value" on my bets. If the horse is good enough bet it on top, if not back-wheeling won't help. Also the people I've seen make a good profit on exotics have done so with small combinations, the large ones seem to erode any advantage you may have.
At least that's what I learned last year.

[Larry Hamilton]

It is not enough, in your record keeping, to say I won 14 of 280 Allowance races that ran at 6 furlongs on the dirt. That just answers the question "what." The answer that will make record keeping profitable is "why." Why did you bet on this or that horse. Until that question is answered, all other questions about profitability are moot.

It would probably be instructive for anyone to write down why you played a horse.

[Tom]

Good suggestion, Larry. Doc Sartin once prescribed something similar for people having troubles getting contenders.
Write down not only you included a horse as a contender, but why you did not include a horse. When you see horse winning that were not within your contender list, go back to your pre-race thoughts and see if you are following false beliefs.

[JustRalph]

this turned into a very nice thread. You guys made a bunch of great points....... I am finding that I make some of the same mistakes........well done gents......

[alysheba88]

I am a big believer in the Barry Meadow win chart approach. Works better for me then flat win betting

[howardjim]

I'm not a big fan of rules.They tend to be born in one timeframe
and die in another.Guidelines with myriad exceptions in various
situations offer the benefit of adaption.
Many days or weeks of bets yield to second-guessing and the lure
of more profits or less losses.If "value"is elusive or defined as a
rabbit trail perhaps,individually,it has not been defined at all.I chase rabbits all the time,catching enough to continue but that is
only because that's my avenue to profit.Perpetual regressions over several years support my realization that identifying contenders is my strength,betting them under 5/1 a weakness.
Keeping records of betting options and results and the willingness
to alter betting strategies via historical reviews seems a prerequisite for success.
My approach clamors for an 8/5 favorite in a full field,chances are
I'll get 10/1+ on a 2nd-3rd-4th personal choice that offers me long
term "value".At the same time,there are many who will profit from
betting,as identifiable "value" for them,that 8/5 shot.
Forgive me for running on,these thoughts are theraputic at the end of a flu-ridden,betless week.