The power of pedigrees

[turninforhome10]

Not to redboard cause I am sweatin out a photo
In the 5th race today at IND Look at the 5 Hotrod Hannah
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/SpendThrift/DON'T+GET+MAD/2002/summary.html

On form she was tough sell No turf form and cheap price
But look at the pedigree for the weeds and ask how this horse paid 31.40
http://www.pedigreequery.com/hotrod+hannah

I got the photo.
This is a classic example of using a pedigree to handicap a race.

[Light]

Pedigreequery does not give any percentages of win form on the Turf for sires or dams, do they?

According to Bris the sire of your winner only gets 2% Turf wins. The Dam's sire (Dynaformer) is well known to be a good turf sire (14% according to Bris). The Grand sire (Stephen got Even) I really don't know about as far as his turf win % and unfortunately Bris doesn't supply that stat.The Dam's stats says "unplaced" in 4 starts according to Bris.

So can you elaborate on what you want us to look at as far as the turf/pedigree play.

[turninforhome10]

I understand your concern regarding numbers. I tend to look more at the aptitude of the progeny of the first 4 dams ( using Tesio). 2nd dam was 1/2 to Northern Sanction who produced Regal Sanction 485k Kent S GIII and a good producer. 3rd Dam herself was very nice producer.
This is the point where most people call me nuts but I tend to look at the 3rd genreration names. So you get AP Indy moderate turf influence Jolie's Halo classic type winner- Stamina on top
on the bottom you get Roberto- very good turf sire then I looked at the best progeny of Rare Performer which was Rare Reason http://www.pedigreequery.com/rare+reason
who carries similar blood lines to Jolie's Halo-Spy song
and the last is the Northern Dancer direct female link in the blood of the aformentioned Gay Northerner.
This may sound like a stretch I know, but alot of the time for me it not so much by and out of as much as the synergy of the whole package.
Hotrod Hannah has a full brother named Highroller Dave that looks to have not yet started would keep an eye on him for the same.

Most of it for me is just looking at a pedigree and how its put together. I get this little twinge in my neck when I see something I like. It is very strange and I guess it was a gift. Kooky huh.
Looking at just the numbers vs the whole package can be misleading.

[lamboguy]

any type of handicapping is ok as long as you are consistent with your analysis and betting.

my uncle taught me that a pattern player will always do better than an instinct player.

[FiveWide]

any type of handicapping is ok as long as you are consistent with your analysis and betting.

my uncle taught me that a pattern player will always do better than an instinct player.

Great advice Lambo! Find your niche and stick with it, unless it's a losing niche. Then as they say, 'change is good'!


-Five

[turninforhome10]

any type of handicapping is ok as long as you are consistent with your analysis and betting.

my uncle taught me that a pattern player will always do better than an instinct player.

Yes but when instinct and pattern combine, synergy is a beautiful thing.
As an instinct player, I loved the idea of a consitent type of cheap horse getting a chance to run on surface of pedigree preference that she has been screaming for as wll as a distance that should hit her dead between the eyes.

The pattern player in me sees.
1) 2nd off layoff
2) Has shown in back form at both a 6 fur and a mile (albeit cheap) last year and consitent LP figures showing competetiveness.
3) How many riders have riden this horse? (albeit a low percentage jock looking for a paycheck who sees a big opportunity). Looks for payday on horse that is one his best money horses.
4)Horse has not missed a paycheck in career.

So you can see how the pedigree was merely the feather that broke the scale in my decision process. This is an angle that I use with a very high ROI and a good strike rate when I execute properly especially this time of year.

[Light]

What about the other horses in the race? Did you do their pedigree profiles? I'm sure you can find good Turf bloodlines in most horses when you go back 3 generations as you say. So I don't understand how you pinpointed the horse,but I believe you hit/picked it. I'm not so uptight about red boarding as others here.


The way I would have looked at the race (post race handicapping) is that most of the horses did not have much Turf experience and were pretty cheap. I rated the winner the 3rd best on numbers. The 2nd and 4th place finishers had better numbers to me. With those 3 contenders and 2 of them in double digits, a win bet on the 2 double digit odds horses would have been my play in this wide open race. Also a cover bet with the 9/2 shot on top of the 2 bombs in the exactas. The favorite who finished last had pretty obvious major issues physically as his form said.

I would not have been able to find the winner using your method because I believe others had better Turf breeding. I only responded to see how your your method worked which seems more of an intuitive method to your personal breeding knowledge so It does me no good. Sorry, but thanks for sharing. Nice hit anyway.

[turninforhome10]

If PA does not care. I will just set up shop here and try and share some of my thoughts regarding pedigrees.

First and formost I just want to reiterate I am really sharp when it comes to pedigrees (IMHO) as it applies to the handicapper, but I am really lousy about putting tickets together so this is not a selections thread by any stretch. I do not profess to have some sort of system or other nonsense, just years of reserarch in a more academic sense. I had the opportunity to move from stall mucker to breeding consultant for 5 stallions in 4 months. It was a once in lifetime shot for a guy who just shitcannned a 50k a year job to pursue the dream of breeding and training a stakes winner. I know, right. PFS huh. Well it had a very sharp learning curve. I had already been studying for about five years and working in and out of horse jobs while working full time and going to school. I knew the only way it could happen was to commit balls out while I had the youth vigor and bakroll. It did not hurt that I married a Doctor along the way and she gave me the chance to pursue it.
I worked with a very cool spectrum of bloodlines
Connecticut- Ogygian-From an own daughter of Ta Wee I have a strong fondness for Tartan Farm bloodlines
Shotiche- Northern Dancer-From the Juddmont mares. I have a stron g fondness for Juddmont
Mr Goldust-Mr Prospector-From classic European bloodlines This is where I got introduced to the Euro races
De Guerin- Storm Cat out of Secretariat mare from direct Windfields lines. I have a stron fondness for Windfields.

So being exposed to so much so soon was a bit overwhelming, but with many 20 hr days including 5 hrs a day of research at least. I learned. I believe I can recit Great Breeders and their methods from cover to cover.
The key for me was to follow the breeders whose main objective was to win the classics. Aga Khan, Swigert, Boussac and my favorite Tesio. The people with the money and flesh are in the enviable position to be able provide the very best of the best for the animals. Tesio made his lick with inexpensive weedy mares from the UK and move them to the sunny coast of Italy and watch them blossom like flowers. Sometimes it is not the bloodlines but the people in charge of their care that make the difference.
First thing I did was build family trees for all the mares from their entry into the stud book. This took about 8 hrs a mares to pursue all the succcesful patterns with the lines. What I started to notice is how the lines fall in an out af favor based on their ractrack performance. So the pattern started to emerge. The best bloodlnes were those that were held in favor the longest by the either the same breeder or relative, or sold at auction for a decent price, Tesio being the exception. Breeders also wax and wayne as maintaining a stallion or access to the proper mares is not an easy task. The Belmonts fell apart because their stallion fertility problems back in the 20's.
The other pattern that emerged was how certain sire line stayed sire lines and some became strictly broodmare lines. My theory on this is that this is determine by the market more than natural selection. The market says that when the son of a stallion hits big early there will be rush to use the sons of that stallion at stud. Take Secretariat, never really produced himself as a male on any reliable measure, deviation from standard of breed. His sons never hit early with any big runners to produce the rush for his sons at stud.
His line gets pushed to the bottom as Grand sons of Bold Ruler and Raise a Native became the hot line with Seattle Slew and Mr Prospector being the next sons to be tried on top. All the while Northern Dancer is the catalyst for the whole market.
So just by market conditions certain sire lines get squeezed to the bottom. I don't discount certain sire lines with having a propensity to produce mares that produce runners rather than to be runners themselves but that is more academic than economic. I would forsee the same fate for Broad Brush and possibly Dynaformer as sire lines in the future unless something drastic happens. It is not an opinion just statistics and forecasting.
So my theory was to follow the patterns that worked for Tartan, Juddmont and Windfields. No small task. This is where most people get lost in looking at pedigrees. The key for me was to go back to a point in the mare lines were held in favor(at one or another the line was good or it would be extinct by now) and to look at how the line was put together or rather who put it together. If the mare line fell apart it was culled, and a breeder of lesser financial means would take the line. If they had the means or luck to get the big horse, they either had to have the means to keep or the horse or more often than not sold for a nice profit. If they did not have the means or the luck then the line would fall further down the ladder. This was easily followed by stallion price and ownership. I took the line that was held in favor the longest went to the first dam the was the big producer and built a family tree. From there I could follow the money trail and also see how the line worked in the big picture with certain sire lines. Would you rather see a nick with 6 crosses or a family tree with 2400 members. I chose the path less taken.

I will beak down a pedigree in the next thread as this one has already got unruly.
In response to light how many other in the race had already won the weeds not many if any as I did not look at that. I strictly saw the grass breeding (more by knowledge than numbers), a consistent horse and a surface that
had never been tried and rolled the dice. The idea that the horse would do well was, I admit instinct and I really don't know how to explain that in any form that will derive an easy answer. I did see a fit horse in the paddock and a longer cannon bone and stride that would lend itself well for the grass. The instinct came in assuming that the horse had a good grass foot through genetics.

[Light]

Back in the day, I used to win a lot of Turf races with my knowledge of turf sires. That was in the day of the "classic" Turf sires. I used to love when there were no stats in the form (Bris or DRF) regarding the win percentage of sires on Turf. So if you had some more obscure but very high percentage sires,they would get a price and pay boxcars.

Now not only can't I get a price using sires like I used to, but I also think their effectiveness is not what it used to be. In other words, I think the breeding is so diluted today that you can have a horse like your horse with a 2% sire,(the lowest in the field),winning, because there is so much turf blood from ancestors mixed in. Not only that but some of the Turf courses are a joke to be called turf courses. They cut the grass so shallow that it doesn't even cover their hoofs. Or the Turf courses develop tremendous biases towards speed or closers that it trumps breeding.

Because of that, I shy away from Turf races today when I used to love them. There is no rhyme or reason as far as Turf breeding anymore. Yeah you have the obvious ones,all chalk,but there are way more horses winning Turf races with inferior turf breeding over superior turf breeding (on the surface) than before.

That is because of the breeding dilution. So you are probably correct to go back 3 generations because that is probably what you have to do today. But for me,that's just too much work and when you make comparisons between Turf blood lines 3 generations back,you are not going to get much separation in the field.

[parlay]

Thanks, very interesting. Please keep writing.

[parlay]

Back in the day, I used to win a lot of Turf races with my knowledge of turf sires. That was in the day of the "classic" Turf sires. I used to love when there were no stats in the form (Bris or DRF) regarding the win percentage of sires on Turf. So if you had some more obscure but very high percentage sires,they would get a price and pay boxcars.

Now not only can't I get a price using sires like I used to, but I also think their effectiveness is not what it used to be. In other words, I think the breeding is so diluted today that you can have a horse like your horse with a 2% sire,(the lowest in the field),winning, because there is so much turf blood from ancestors mixed in. Not only that but some of the Turf courses are a joke to be called turf courses. They cut the grass so shallow that it doesn't even cover their hoofs. Or the Turf courses develop tremendous biases towards speed or closers that it trumps breeding.

Because of that, I shy away from Turf races today when I used to love them. There is no rhyme or reason as far as Turf breeding anymore. Yeah you have the obvious ones,all chalk,but there are way more horses winning Turf races with inferior turf breeding over superior turf breeding (on the surface) than before.

That is because of the breeding dilution. So you are probably correct to go back 3 generations because that is probably what you have to do today. But for me,that's just too much work and when you make comparisons between Turf blood lines 3 generations back,you are not going to get much separation in the field.

I still love the sod. I find the overlay still in plentiful numbers. I think my very basic knowledge of breeding is still a huge advantage.

[senortout]

All things being equal,formwise, then and only then would I let pedigree determine my selection. This, of course, would involve checking the pedigrees and at some depth too I might add...of all the entrants. Quite a chore. senortout

[turninforhome10]

All things being equal,formwise, then and only then would I let pedigree determine my selection. This, of course, would involve checking the pedigrees and at some depth too I might add...of all the entrants. Quite a chore. senortout
I guess my trick is to know the breeders in some detail looking for ceratin lines.
I built a Rassmussen table some years back of foundation mares that I follow. This is how I found Ill Have Another. I follow the family of Mahari, Ill Have Another's 7th dam. I have all the quality Mahmoud mares in the DB and update as the new ones run. By sticking to certain lines and ceratin breeders, I feel I find better horses to follow.

But as far as Hot Rod Hannah here is how I looked at the Pedigree.
GO back to the 3rd dam by Northern Dancer. She was foaled in 69, Nijinsky II was a 2yo and Northern Dancer was pretty exclusive for Windfields. That would have been a tough book to get into or needed some big cash. The breeder is Dean Alfrange who I am not familiar with so I go to find out how we got to ND. 2 dams back we get Leslie Coombs and a nice stakes winner with top pedigree by Heliopokis top sire. So this line was held infavor by both Coombs and Nelson Bunker Hunt. THe Rare Performer comes in because of picking up mare late in career from the Hunt dispersal. The we get back to Dynafomer another expensive sire. Then I look at the produce record of the immediate dam and find Denise Purvis(Waller) has bred all the offspring and has not done all that bad It looks like she either sells privately or does decent at the sales. 4 starters 3 winners not bad. So I liked the lines because of who was involved with the big name sires. Pure Economics plus Coombs and Hunt were excellent judges of Flesh. You have heard of Mr Prospector bred by Coombs.
I know this sounds convuluted by any stretch of the imagination and very tedious. But after refining this process for 15 years I can get a horse done in about 2-3 minutes.

[parlay]

i love your mind :) truly unique thinking. i hope your profiting from all the time invested. are you selling analysis?

[maclr11]

I present to you Man on the Moon. He is a specific example of pedigrees being overvalued, the current owners payed a lot of money for this horse before his first start and he ran well once, but he has not run three jumps since and his pedigree suggests he should especially love a stretch out in distance compared to some of the dogs he was running against.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8089174&registry=T
Just food for thought, I do look at pedigrees but take them with a grain of salt.
The stretch out occurs on the July 20th race.

[turninforhome10]

i love your mind :) truly unique thinking. i hope your profiting from all the time invested. are you selling analysis?
Yes, I am a Bloodstock Consultant part time. It got started as way for me to find the mares for the stallions I was booking and took off from there.

[turninforhome10]

I present to you Man on the Moon. He is a specific example of pedigrees being overvalued, the current owners payed a lot of money for this horse before his first start and he ran well once, but he has not run three jumps since and his pedigree suggests he should especially love a stretch out in distance compared to some of the dogs he was running against.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8089174&registry=T
Just food for thought, I do look at pedigrees but take them with a grain of salt.
The stretch out occurs on the July 20th race.
Look at the big picture. You have a got an imported mare in the 2nd dam who was a monster in Arg. Brought here and bred to the best. Produced the dam of Gio Ponti. When Man on the Moon RNA'd for 190k that would have been my red flag. That was an 1989 mare that he came from way past her prime IMHO. I could not touch this horse with a 10-foot pole. Just the way I see things. I like the first 4 or 5 foals as they get the best from mom. I am not saying that older mares don't make good producers and their are exceptions to every rule but this would be a horse where the pedigree is a bet against. You should continue to take pedigrees with a grain of salt if that is working for you.

[turninforhome10]

In all apologies Chipeta Springs produced Gio Ponti much later, but I still see Man on the Moon as a cull.

[sammy the sage]

Look at the big picture. You have a got an imported mare in the 2nd dam who was a monster in Arg. Brought here and bred to the best. Produced the dam of Gio Ponti. When Man on the Moon RNA'd for 190k that would have been my red flag. That was an 1989 mare that he came from way past her prime IMHO. I could not touch this horse with a 10-foot pole. Just the way I see things. I like the first 4 or 5 foals as they get the best from mom. I am not saying that older mares don't make good producers and their are exceptions to every rule but this would be a horse where the pedigree is a bet against. You should continue to take pedigrees with a grain of salt if that is working for you.

Big RED ring a bell.........

[sammy the sage]

at least you;re getting some discussion...props FOR that...always liked this topic.

[turninforhome10]

Big RED ring a bell.........

I was hoping someone would nail me with that. There are exceptions to this rule in spades just not at the frequency of the best horse being from the first 5 foals from my research.

[parlay]

Fact is, some horses can not run!
Pedigree cant help that. For whatever reason
these horses are damaged.
BUT, some horses have just not been given the opportunity
to do what they were bred for. THESE ARE THE GOLD.
If you have the insight to discern when this is the case you can find
some juicy plays. But they are a leap of faith, you will be betting long
price horses AND YOU WILL BE WRONG SOMETIMES.

[turninforhome10]

Fact is, some horses can not run!
Pedigree cant help that. For whatever reason
these horses are damaged.
BUT, some horses have just not been given the opportunity
to do what they were bred for. THESE ARE THE GOLD.
If you have the insight to discern when this is the case you can find
some juicy plays. But they are a leap of faith, you will be betting long
price horses AND YOU WILL BE WRONG SOMETIMES.
Truer words not spoken. There is no magic bullet and sitting through a lot of races looking for this angle is key. Ever heard of Red Ryder?

[turninforhome10]

Wed 9th at Bel Sloppy track. One turn mile Which is more important to you the horse that is bred for the distance or the horse that is bred for the mud. All things being equal. Looking at Elsaroarin and trying to figure the stretch out. His pedigree looks acceptable for mile http://www.pedigreequery.com/elsaroarin
but the Jig Time says mud.

[turninforhome10]

There is a comment about "not being bred for the surface"
You make the call
http://www.pedigreequery.com/silent+joy
I am willing to look at the Caveat and Round Table
7-2 is worth a gamble and the outside in not bad for this one making a one turn mile

[turninforhome10]

And make my two donations today to the thoroughbred pedigree research foundation. The trainer switch and surface switch was way more than any silly pedigree could overcome. Good call Mr Serling.

[sammy the sage]

Keep it up....if you HAVE the time T.F.H....I didn't or don't... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=92602

[nijinski]

I try to follow the mares that I remembered from when I was very young.
One was Jameela. A Md bred that I had high hopes for . Hard knocking runner.
Can't help but think she would have been a very successful broodmare.

Only two surviving foals , then she's struck by lightning :( .
There's a Gal that had grit and stamina , goes back to Sir Gallahad I believe on her female side . Sire was Rambuntious.
Nice thing was she gave us Gulch .

I thought she might have some intersting lines for you to peak at TFH. Some
nice Euro influence .

[turninforhome10]

I try to follow the mares that I remembered from when I was very young.
One was Jameela. A Md bred that I had high hopes for . Hard knocking runner.
Can't help but think she would have been a very successful broodmare.

Only two surviving foals , then she's struck by lightning :( .
There's a Gal that had grit and stamina , goes back to Sir Gallahad I believe on her female side . Sire was Rambuntious.
Nice thing was she gave us Gulch .

I thought she might have some intersting lines for you to peak at TFH. Some
nice Euro influence .
Ironically it was a line developed in America, http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/AmFoundationMares.html
From just doing a little research the line seems plagued with fertility problems, as to say very few offspring to look at. Very few mares left going back in this line there is a horse Prince Tony that might be running somewhere. Gulch should carry her blood forward through Thunder Gulch, The Cliff's Edge and maybe Court Vision.

[nijinski]

Ironically it was a line developed in America, http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/AmFoundationMares.html
From just doing a little research the line seems plagued with fertility problems, as to say very few offspring to look at. Very few mares left going back in this line there is a horse Prince Tony that might be running somewhere. Gulch should carry her blood forward through Thunder Gulch, The Cliff's Edge and maybe Court Vision.


Point Given ! lol
I have my own theory about these things .. Sometimes it's fertility , many it's the loss of the broodmare . Usually no fault of the owner . So many
are lost in or after foaling . I know it's better now with precise ultrasound improvements etc but years ago it might have been more frequent .

She may have had much more success if not for that awful fate.
Thanks .

[bigbobsports]

@Turningforhome. You had the right horse. I would have bet that horse all the way. I don't know who ran 2nd.But i would have boxed the winner with the #7 and #9. I will always bet anything that has Dynaformer in the bloodline especially on the dames side 1st time running on the weeds.That is the side you have to always put 1st.And to get a bloodline with Dynaformer 1st time on the turf is like getting two numbers in a lottery pick three.Now there are 10,00o ways the the 3rd number won't pop up. I am all in 7 days a week on a angle like this. And yes I will bet a Dynaformer bloodline on the sires side also.But I really like it on dames side. Also the winner has been two turns and broke its maiden going the two turns.

[nijinski]

Ironically it was a line developed in America, http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/AmFoundationMares.html
From just doing a little research the line seems plagued with fertility problems, as to say very few offspring to look at. Very few mares left going back in this line there is a horse Prince Tony that might be running somewhere. Gulch should carry her blood forward through Thunder Gulch, The Cliff's Edge and maybe Court Vision.

Her sire Rambunctious certainly has the Euro influence.

[turninforhome10]

@Turningforhome. You had the right horse. I would have bet that horse all the way. I don't know who ran 2nd.But i would have boxed the winner with the #7 and #9. I will always bet anything that has Dynaformer in the bloodline especially on the dames side 1st time running on the weeds.That is the side you have to always put 1st.And to get a bloodline with Dynaformer 1st time on the turf is like getting two numbers in a lottery pick three.Now there are 10,00o ways the the 3rd number won't pop up. I am all in 7 days a week on a angle like this. And yes I will bet a Dynaformer bloodline on the sires side also.But I really like it on dames side. Also the winner has been two turns and broke its maiden going the two turns.


I am hoping that Purim hits, lets have a Dynaformer male line keep going.

[turninforhome10]

Her sire Rambunctious certainly has the Euro influence.

Yes he is from family 19, very stout and durable line that also gets jumpers.
Surprised to see he is bred in Jersey, learn something every day.

[turninforhome10]

The :3: Krazy for Kaya . Hails for the family Banquet Bell (Matriarch) -Dam of Chateaugay and Primonetta- Immediate family of Cum Laude Laurie
Carries nice doubles of Fappiano and Secretariat. Working bullets for top Juv connections.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/krazy+for+kaya

[turninforhome10]

The :3: Krazy for Kaya . Hails for the family Banquet Bell (Matriarch) -Dam of Chateaugay and Primonetta- Immediate family of Cum Laude Laurie
Carries nice doubles of Fappiano and Secretariat. Working bullets for top Juv connections.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/krazy+for+kaya
Ran well, Floral Sky is no slouch in the breeding dept either
http://www.pedigreequery.com/floral+sky
Both fillies should make some noise in the Juv filly ranks.

[turninforhome10]

In a day and age where claimers and sale horses dominate entries look at the 7th. Very Nice race for older fillies. 6 of the 7 horses are owned by their breeder.
Ask yourself who has to run in allowance conditions for fear of loosing a nice broodmare?

[turninforhome10]

This thread title is a bit misleading. Pedigrees are but another tool is the handicappers bag, not a magic wand by any means. I use pedigrees when I
A) Look at MSW FTS- Looking for dams that are well bred producers and the resulting foal is both valued correctly and has the right connections.
B) Surface or distance switch. If an only if horse has either displayed a running style suitable for switch. Pulled and closed for sprint to route and gets return at same track with same jock in next. Speed and fade in grass sprints. The reason I use pedigree is more for confirmation probability. Flat big feet for grass and mud. Longer canon bones and higher action for turf. When switching to route, depth of chest, higher withers, bigger shoulder angle and efficient stride.
C) Finding false favorites- Looking at just the sire and dam can be misleading. Checking the production and sales history can be an edge. High dollar pedigree and poor production and connection can equal false favorite.
D) 2 and 3yo- I have a big list of foundation mares that have the breeding I like and follow the families. Breeders include,Pin Oak, Juddmont, Tartan, Windfields, and the broodmares considered high on the Rassmussen scale.

It is not a magic bullet. It is just another tool.

[iceknight]

This thread title is a bit misleading. Pedigrees are but another tool is the handicappers bag, not a magic wand by any means. I use pedigrees when I
A) Look at MSW FTS- Looking for dams that are well bred producers and the resulting foal is both valued correctly and has the right connections.
B) Surface or distance switch. If an only if horse has either displayed a running style suitable for switch. Pulled and closed for sprint to route and gets return at same track with same jock in next. Speed and fade in grass sprints. The reason I use pedigree is more for confirmation probability. Flat big feet for grass and mud. Longer canon bones and higher action for turf. When switching to route, depth of chest, higher withers, bigger shoulder angle and efficient stride.
C) Finding false favorites- Looking at just the sire and dam can be misleading. Checking the production and sales history can be an edge. High dollar pedigree and poor production and connection can equal false favorite.
D) 2 and 3yo- I have a big list of foundation mares that have the breeding I like and follow the families. Breeders include,Pin Oak, Juddmont, Tartan, Windfields, and the broodmares considered high on the Rassmussen scale.

It is not a magic bullet. It is just another tool.

Thanks. This is a good list for beginners like me to look at!

[bobhope]

turf is easy races to handicapping by my opinion

[turninforhome10]

turf is easy races to handicapping by my opinion
OK

[bobhope]

OK

turningforhome keep what u doing for maidens race i use to play the races in

uk i use to look up 3rdto 5th generation turf breading its a lot off work it paid off, but here u have to deal with the drugs etc its different in the uk

NO DRUGS TO DEAL WITH THATS BACK IN THE 80'S

[turninforhome10]

turningforhome keep what u doing for maidens race i use to play the races in

uk i use to look up 3rdto 5th generation turf breading its a lot off work it paid off, but here u have to deal with the drugs etc its different in the uk

NO DRUGS TO DEAL WITH THATS BACK IN THE 80'S

I like AUS and South Africa

[turninforhome10]

For those wondering if Flower Alley gets the 1 1/2 distance for IHA, Flower Alley's 1/2 brother is running today in the Japan Derby. 10th race at Tokyo. Post time at 2:40 am est. He is the 1 horse Spielberg 25-1 ML/

[turninforhome10]

For those wondering if Flower Alley gets the 1 1/2 distance for IHA, Flower Alley's 1/2 brother is running today in the Japan Derby. 10th race at Tokyo. Post time at 2:40 am est. He is the 1 horse Spielberg 25-1 ML/

It is turf though.

[iceknight]

It is turf though.

Thanks for the tip! Now I will stay up even late watching JPN racing.. haha. I think I will do paper betting on these though till I learn how to 'cap large fields!

[iceknight]

Thanks for the tip! Now I will stay up even late watching JPN racing.. haha. I think I will do paper betting on these though till I learn how to 'cap large fields!
Spielberg finished well in the back 14th in a field of 18. The winner Deep Brilliante and Spielberg are both Deep Impact colts (dams differ).
More details and video at this blog post (http://stockgage.blogspot.com/2012/05/japan-racing-g1-japanese-derby-2012.html) (will also try to embed video below).

One thing I noticed about JPN racing charts are that they provide individual L3F (last 3 furlong) times for each horse- A very useful feature and it is readily available!

[YT="<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/IfBHHQOz78w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>"] ok I suck at embedding youtube videos here!

[turninforhome10]

STAKES
Great Lady M S.

Purse $70,000. (Plus $21,000 – CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. By subscription of $50 each on or before Thursday, May 17. Closed with 16. $250 additional to start with $70,000 added, of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth and 2% to fifth. Weights: Three-Year-Olds 119 Lbs. Older 124 Lbs. Non-winners of $90,000 at any time or $60,000 twice in 2011-12 allowed 2 Lbs.; a race of $60,000 in 2011-12 allowed 4 Lbs.; non-winners of two races other than maiden, claiming or starter in 2012 allowed6 Lbs. Such a race in 2012 allowed 8 Lbs. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Six Furlongs. (Turf)
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Teroda (KY) 4/F L J Rosario 120 J W Sadler 4/1
2 2 Equitana (BRZ) 5/M L J Valdivia, Jr. 116 A C Avila 15/1
3 3 Mega Dream (KY) 5/M L R Bejarano 118 J Bonde 12/1
4 4 Mizdirection (KY) 4/F L G K Gomez 124 M Puype 7/5
5 5 Bloemer Girl (CA) 4/F L V Espinoza 122 D L Hendricks 15/1
6 6 Broken Dreams (FL) 6/M L D R Flores 122 T F Proctor 4/1

8 8 Holding Her Ground (FL) 6/M L A Delgadillo 116 B W Grayson 30/1

Owners: 1 - Gary or Cecil Barber; 2 - Clovis Salioni; 3 - Arnason or Durant or Metanovic; 4 - Jungle Racing, LLC, Grohs, Strauss, Et Al; 5 - Andrew & Christa Arthur; 6 - Glen Hill Farm; 8 - Bobby Grayson

I really like filly stakes. The owners are forced to put the nicer mares that they do not want loose to claim in races like this. The conditions of this race really lend itself well to weeding out contenders based on conditions and pedigree. Not pedigree in the sense of bloodlines, but in market value. You can't run a nice mare cheaper than the market will allow or she will not be yours. Look close at those in this race that only eligible for N3x, all of them but the :4: correct. Which horse most easily moved through N2x? Then which mare has a stakes or 2 stakes wins. Now is that stakes win forcing them to be in the stakes today, or was that stakes win a classy win, indicative of the motive today.
Now for pedigree, sire value is important but a proven dam can be the reason for a forcing of the owners hand away from claiming races. I don't want to get into bloodlines other than to say they are important when a horse is : 1)Doing something for the first time 2) Taking a class hike 3) Causing an owner to be cautious.

In summary, find the horse that is running for the win, not the protection.
This is a way to use pedigree to separate contenders from pretenders. Fillies in classy races especially. I really like owner breeders in this spot.

[turninforhome10]

Results
:3: :4: :5: :1:
Since I made not selections I would reason the lesson like this.
THe :3:
If you handicapped based on turf pedigree. You lost, Nothing here to give you that. Dam is 0-4 for turf sprints and Sire is negative ROI for same. But looking at the big pedigree (I hear the grumbling) you get this http://www.pedigreequery.com/mega+dream
Added a speeder strain of EL Prado on a slower strain of ST Jovite. A horse with a Sires AWD 7.5 fur over a dam sire that is 8.6 AWD and a horse that has shown much versatility in distance with good speed. Has a 3/4 brother by El Prado that was a dud for Fox Hill Far Farm but only 1 start and the other foals were more dirt types so the stats would look bad. Here is the production
http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/dream+away.
Stout breeding that shows speed always gets my attention.
THe :4: pretty much had to go here and got the 124 lb penalty for it. Ran big but 6lbs made a differnce in the stretch
The :1: well the Barbers took a shot. Looked to be a 6 1/2 specialist who is gonna be kind of lost in conditions.

The :6:, I have gut feeling will do well at Del Mar.

[turninforhome10]

Results
:3: :4: :5: :1:
Since I made not selections I would reason the lesson like this.
THe :3:
If you handicapped based on turf pedigree. You lost, Nothing here to give you that. Dam is 0-4 for turf sprints and Sire is negative ROI for same. But looking at the big pedigree (I hear the grumbling) you get this http://www.pedigreequery.com/mega+dream
Added a speeder strain of EL Prado on a slower strain of ST Jovite. A horse with a Sires AWD 7.5 fur over a dam sire that is 8.6 AWD and a horse that has shown much versatility in distance with good speed. Has a 3/4 brother by El Prado that was a dud for Fox Hill Far Farm but only 1 start and the other foals were more dirt types so the stats would look bad. Here is the production
http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/dream+away.
Stout breeding that shows speed always gets my attention.
THe :4: pretty much had to go here and got the 124 lb penalty for it. Ran big but 6lbs made a differnce in the stretch
The :1: well the Barbers took a shot. Looked to be a 6 1/2 specialist who is gonna be kind of lost in conditions.

The :6:, I have gut feeling will do well at Del Mar.
Sorry meant 1 win for the 3/4 brother. My editor is a poor proofer. I might look back at the winners races at OP for stable mail candidates.

[andicap]

the only comment I would make about this redboard is that well, maybe you could find something to like in a lot of these horses. If the 1 had won, maybe you could have rationalized something in her breeding that you liked.

If I handicap a decent field of stakes horses I can pretty much find a reason to like several of them based on the way I handicap. I presume the same is true for pedigree handicapping.

[turninforhome10]

the only comment I would make about this redboard is that well, maybe you could find something to like in a lot of these horses. If the 1 had won, maybe you could have rationalized something in her breeding that you liked.

If I handicap a decent field of stakes horses I can pretty much find a reason to like several of them based on the way I handicap. I presume the same is true for pedigree handicapping.
The difference between a redboard and a learning experience is that I did not play the race nor did I attempt to make a selection in my look at the race.
I simply tried to explain a different way to look at pedigrees by using their value rather than their aptitude. By analyzing the race afterwords, I make note of the winner and look for a reason that satisfies a solution of sorts. Sometimes that is not possible. In this case, you had horse that had been showing good speed at OP and Michael Stidham is no slouch at taking care of his animals. Owners took a shot.
I gather my info and take the notes
Sire likes to cross on mares carrying Lyphard.
No redboard. Just insight to a process.
Peace.

[andicap]

Oh, I usually enjoy these types of posts because I feel I can learn from them, Yours included.

This was more like a question than a criticism. Isn't it true that you can often find SOMETHING to like about several of the horses in a race -- according to whatever criteria, factor you use, be in pedigree, pace, astrology -- and that explaining it after the race DOES NOT necessarily mean you (the editorial "you" not you personally) would have had the winner?

This is a common practice in books and articles and kind of my pet peeve about this sort of thing. I guess by saying "pet peeve," I'm implying criticism of your post, but actually I'm enjoying them because you're going so far against the grain here -- and I especially love any concepts that challenge the existing dogma.

[turninforhome10]

Oh, I usually enjoy these types of posts because I feel I can learn from them, Yours included.

This was more like a question than a criticism. Isn't it true that you can often find SOMETHING to like about several of the horses in a race -- according to whatever criteria, factor you use, be in pedigree, pace, astrology -- and that explaining it after the race DOES NOT necessarily mean you (the editorial "you" not you personally) would have had the winner?

This is a common practice in books and articles and kind of my pet peeve about this sort of thing. I guess by saying "pet peeve," I'm implying criticism of your post, but actually I'm enjoying them because you're going so far against the grain here -- and I especially love any concepts that challenge the existing dogma.
I agree. I am a little bit of everything when it comes to handicapping. Pace, pedigree, and condition eligibility are my big three. I was referencing "Beyer on Speed" the other day and he was explaining how Horse A was better than Horse B based on his second split in his last race in a for instance type scenario. Looking at the class of the animals, Horse A broke maiden in special weights and ran 2nd in a N1x, while horse B broke maiden for 15k tag and has not run back. Well, to say speed and fractional analysis gets you to Horse A as the winner suits the author to make his point. After being a condition handicapper for awhile, my take is that a MSW that runs back in N1x and runs well, will almost smoke a MCL with no starts after breaking maiden. For the author to take that angle would destroy his thesis of speed.

In my case, I have seen pedigree handicapping abused for years, IMHO. Lets use this example. An author is analyzing a MSW for 3 yo's going long for the first. He makes the case for Horse A that "his sterling pedigree says he will go long and that is why I am backing him today". Upon further review by yourself, you find the dam has produced 4 winners and in 23 starts in routes for offspring shows 1 route win. So taken on face value as a lot handicappers would they bet the horse will go long. You also find out the horse was sold as yearling for 1/2 the amount of the stud fee.
Who do you believe here the author, or nature and the market?

[sammy the sage]

Well...excellent week-end to discuss a pedigree or two

[turninforhome10]

Well...excellent week-end to discuss a pedigree or two
Have to work today. Who are you looking at? Also see the TCB Blood files for Belmont runners. Somebody needs to answer my question first.
Are the only two turn races at Belmont 9 furs or greater?

[BIG49010]

Have to work today. Who are you looking at? Also see the TCB Blood files for Belmont runners. Somebody needs to answer my question first.
Are the only two turn races at Belmont 9 furs or greater?

I think the only 2 turn dirt race at Belmont is the 1 1/2 mile Belmont.

I think when they ran the Breeder Cup 1 1/4 there it started on the turn.

[turninforhome10]

From another thread a guide
Here is my quick guide to looking at pedigrees(on a budget)
First pull up the horses at pedigree query
http://www.pedigreequery.com/ill+have+another2
First I look at sire and answer the questions
1) Is this stallion established, new or what I call "sale" stallion.
Established stallions are those which a breeder would use with a mare that
A) has value because of race record
B) has value because of family
C) has an owner with more money than brains if A and B are not applicable.

An established stallion is one who has already produced high class winners and stands for more than 5k. Exclusivity of the book would be already in place and the syndicate has the right owners with the right mares. Look at Danzig in I'll Have Another. Sweetest Chant and Althea both very high class mares. You did not get a free pass to Danzig.
The sire of I'll Have Another would be a new stallion. Flower Alley was very high class race horse and shows a nice Average Winning Distance (AWD) from 2 crops to race already showing his potential to be a nice sire of stayers. With Flower Alley you get Three Chimneys, Pletcher factor (connection to breeders and probably a comp season), and an outstanding individual. 11k for I'll Have Another seems paltry now.
The sale stallion is one that would be used to sell a mare in foal. Stallion stands for under 7500$ and mare has a couple of foals on the ground. Modest produce record and race record are probable and the breeder will be what I call a sale breeder. Only way to get this knowledge is to read sales results or take good notes. These stallions are usually managed to have numbers with slightly lesser quality mares.

Next I would look at the race record and family of the mare and put a value on her and see if the mating matches on price. Is the mating between stallion and mares of the same ownership? I always pay extra attention when I see Phipps, or Claiborne or the like. Call me old fashioned but when a breeder of note holds on to home bred, I consider the flesh to have been judged. Plus these babies would be out running around with babies of similar class teaching each other to run. These types of horse rank high on my list. The Dam production Index or DPI is listed on the Brisnet Ultimate and the higher the number the better.
Will put so more thought into this and post later.

[iceknight]

From another thread a guide
Call me old fashioned but when a breeder of note holds on to home bred, I consider the flesh to have been judged. Plus these babies would be out running around with babies of similar class teaching each other to run. These types of horse rank high on my list. Thanks for the explanation and this standout quote!