Late Odds Change on Derby Card

[redshift1]

I tracked the odds on all the Derby day races using an Excel worksheet and was surprised by the changes in the last 1-2 minutes. Shackleford , Bodiemiester and Groupie Doll all dropped significantly.

I don't recall so much late movement on previous large handle day's like the Breeders Cup or last years Derby.

Anybody else surprised?

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[lamboguy]

years ago there was a guy betting the break on derby day in a dog track in S.Dakota for big money. he had Monarchos. that dog track had a lot of time to call the horse.

it must be the same guy that bet the break last saturday. i have no idea if he bet those races in the same dog track though.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I made a bet on groupie Doll at 1 minute to post and she was 9/2.3-1 at the wire.That's pretty extreme.I had this vision that when she was coming down the stretch drawing off,of a bunch of guys punching tickets laughing their azzes off!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

years ago there was a guy betting the break on derby day in a dog track in S.Dakota for big money. he had Monarchos. that dog track had a lot of time to call the horse. ...

A real long time I guess. Wasn't Monarchos about 13th and a dozen back behind Songandaprayer and Balto Star, never made a move until about the 3/8, and still had to get past Congaree at the 1/8th?

[turninforhome10]

At what point does the host track co-mingle all the funds from off track? Always wondered.

[lamboguy]

i said Monarchos in the derby, but now that i remember, it was in the Florida Derby. the horse went down from 9-2 to 7-2 after the race finished and they knew the guy nailed the pools.

[cj]

years ago there was a guy betting the break on derby day in a dog track in S.Dakota for big money. he had Monarchos. that dog track had a lot of time to call the horse.

it must be the same guy that bet the break last saturday. i have no idea if he bet those races in the same dog track though.

Pretty sure the big drop on Monarchos came in the Florida Derby, not Kentucky.

[cj]

Oops, didn't read far enough ahead.

[Mr. Nobody]

Saw these big late odds moves all day long on Oaks and Derby days. Crazy considering how much money must have been bet early on-track. What is the point of even trying to "value bet" when the final odds bear no relationship to odds with 5 minutes to post?

[horses4courses]

Conditional wagering hasn't been around for too many years, either.
If a lot of big players put in a minimum odds requirement set for zero minutes to post, that could cause a drop, too.

Seems strange that it only seems to be on winners, though.

[redshift1]

Conditional wagering hasn't been around for too many years, either.
If a lot of big players put in a minimum odds requirement set for zero minutes to post, that could cause a drop, too.

Seems strange that it only seems to be on winners, though.


Macho Macho was 5/1 when I bet and payed 7.50/1 so It looks like Thermal Cat took the late money in a losing effort.

Makes me think betting funds (ADW's) were co-mingled late but to be honest I know nothing about how that works.

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[PiquetBT52]

A friend of mine and I were discussing the Bodemeister move yesterday. Seemed fishey, but last night while watching the simulcasting replay, the odds did come up as 4/1 when they passed under the wire for the first time. Must have been conditional.

[horses4courses]

A friend of mine and I were discussing the Bodemeister move yesterday. Seemed fishey, but last night while watching the simulcasting replay, the odds did come up as 4/1 when they passed under the wire for the first time. Must have been conditional.

I heard a guy at a racebook I go to say that someone bet $1 million on Bodemeister close to post time. I have no idea what his source was.
Will ask him tomorrow when I see him again.

Anyone else hear about a wager like that?
It had to take that kind of money to reduce the odds that much in such a major pool.

[1GCFAN]

Saw the changes mentioned and I explained to someone that it was probably one of those computer bets. It takes a lot of money to move the odds that much on Derby Day.