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horses4courses
05-07-2012, 02:06 PM
I get the impression that, yet again, we will have to wait even longer to see another TC winner.
IHA strikes me as a horse who needs time between starts.

The ace up his sleeve?
He might not face much opposition in the next two legs.
The odds are still against it, though.

What say you?

CincyHorseplayer
05-07-2012, 02:21 PM
It all depends on the Belmont IMO.Bodemeister did too much,too soon,and was stretched to the limits.He's probably KO'd for the Preakness,run or not.He can win the Preakness.I think his biggest threat will be Union Rags and Creative Cause.Dullahan going shorter and slower will be lost.

Robert Goren
05-07-2012, 02:38 PM
I think he has a shot. He looked to me like a horse on the improve. That said, there is reason on why there are so few triple crown winners. 3 tough route races in 5 week is asking an awful lot. A lot good horses only won 1 let alone 3.

redshift1
05-07-2012, 02:38 PM
I'll Have Another has the best chance since Big Brown but to be fair he had a dream trip in the KD. He may not even be the favorite for the Preakness when the chances of others are less compromised by the field size.


.

lamboguy
05-07-2012, 02:47 PM
i said before the start of the tripple crown that the field was so good and the horses would give big efforts. most of them are now out of gas. therefore i have to give this one a good shot to win the preakness., with or without bodiemyster in the race

Bullet Plane
05-07-2012, 03:08 PM
I'd be shocked if he won the triple crown.

He sat a dream trip with a Beyer of 101...I just can't imagine this horse winning a triple crown...

I'd be somewhat surprised if he wins another leg of the triple crown...

ArlJim78
05-07-2012, 03:10 PM
If Bode runs in either of those races he'll be tough to beat.

Greyfox
05-07-2012, 03:16 PM
If I'll Have Another wins the Triple Crown it will be the best Cinderella story since Sea Biscuit.
This colt was originally sold for $11,000 bucks.
He was then resold at an Ocala sale for $35,000.
To date, he has earned over $2 million.
All of that was accomplished running against colts who had been purchased for much higher prices.
That's "Fantastic."
On the plus side, I'll Have Another is the only 3 year old in the world who has a chance to win the Triple Crown.
But my crystal ball doesn't see a Triple Crown winner here.
I've been wrong before. But it looks to me like we'll have to wait at least another year.

Robert Fischer
05-07-2012, 03:18 PM
going to be a good preakness and probably a good belmont.

If one of the legs will be weaker it will probably be belmont, although a couple strong horses from the derby may elect to leap-frog Baltimore.

Great crop this year and there were more good efforts in the derby than I can count on one hand.

I'll have Another should come out of the derby very strong.
While logic will suggest looking heavily at trips from May 5, he wasn't pushed to the point of exhaustion or exposing a weakness.

Much will depend on who goes to the Preakness and how well Bodemeister comes out of the Derby.

turninforhome10
05-07-2012, 03:22 PM
Here is the question. HFC says he needs time between starts. Ok
If you were the trainer and you think as a 2yo you have got a classic horse who as a first time 3yo wins a graded stakes and looks to get in the Derby. How hard do you pound on him. O' Neill has done a superb job and is not "peeling the onion" to fast to coin Jerkens. Has O'Neill reached a bottom with this guy?
Everything in his pedigree says the best is yet to come IMHO.
And to Greyfox, sounds a bit like Seattle Slew huh.

Greyfox
05-07-2012, 03:30 PM
And to Greyfox, sounds a bit like Seattle Slew huh.

Nope. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. He didn't need to wait for horses to shorten stride and then run them down.

CincyHorseplayer
05-07-2012, 03:32 PM
Nope. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. He didn't need to wait for horses to shorten stride and then run them down.

Does it matter how it's done?

turninforhome10
05-07-2012, 03:42 PM
Nope. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. He didn't need to wait for horses to shorten stride and then run them down.

Sorry Grey meant more about the sale price than performance. How much did Slew change the Taylors life? The trainer I worked for, it was his brother Cecil who was holding Slew in the gate in the Derby. He thought if Slew gets beat after the poor start he was going in cement shoes. Thankfully it all worked out.

raybo
05-07-2012, 04:15 PM
I won't see the fractions we saw in the Derby, which advantaged the winner. I don't give him any chance of winning the Preakness.

So, no!

olddaddy
05-07-2012, 04:48 PM
It is a tough feat to accomplish. I think its possible, not probable but I would love to see it happen. It would be great for horse racing.

cj
05-07-2012, 04:51 PM
I won't see the fractions we saw in the Derby, which advantaged the winner. I don't give him any chance of winning the Preakness.

So, no!

Don't you think if the fractions are slower I'll Have Another will be up much closer? He seems very versatile and has won as a frontrunner, a presser, and now even mid pack to closer.

CincyHorseplayer
05-07-2012, 05:07 PM
This guy reminds me of Real Quiet in a lot of ways.Watch him win the Preakness then lose to Dullahan by a nose in the Belmont.Oooh.I'm rootin for him.

pandy
05-07-2012, 05:15 PM
One thing that kind of threw me off with I'll Have Another were the fairly tepid fractions in this two Santa Anita wins. But it's the track that threw me off because Santa Anita is one of the fastest tracks in North America, perhaps second fastest outside of Turf Paradise. I'll Have Another basically sat the perfect "pocket" trip right behind the leader in both wins and the fractions were modest for that track, or so I thought, then he rallied to win. He looked like one of many contenders in the Derby but I couldn't get too excited because he had dream trips.

I guess the lesson to be learned is that horses that can stalk and finish strongly are a force to be reckoned with even if the fractions seem modest. On the Bris race shapes his second call in the Lewis was -11 and in the S.A. Derby -12 and I find the race shapes to be an excellent indicator of how fast the pace was.

It seems that people are more excited about Bodemeister than the winner but we know that I'll Have Another can stalk a hot pace and finish, which is a sign of a classy horse. With Bodemeister, in both of his wins he was loose on the lead, so we don't know how versatile he is.

Marshall Bennett
05-07-2012, 07:13 PM
I see him as another Giaciamo. Chances are slim to none.

CincyHorseplayer
05-07-2012, 07:25 PM
I see him as another Giaciamo. Chances are slim to none.

I don't think he is a world beater either but that he isn't a stone cold closer as some have pointed out,that his versatilty in running style does make him talented.If he's peaking right now,you never know.

pandy
05-07-2012, 08:01 PM
I see him as another Giaciamo. Chances are slim to none.

Giacomo only won 3 races in 16 starts in his entire career, two stakes races, one Gr1. I'll Have Another already has 4 wins in 6 starts including three Graded stakes wins in a row, two of which were Grade 1 wins. He is a much better horse than Giacomo by a mile.

Steve 'StatMan'
05-07-2012, 08:28 PM
Oh, I'll have another probably has what it takes, but as usual, another horse will come up in the next 2 races and also have what it takes. What many of the KY Derby winners really needed was the others to not have what it takes, or at least not for the next 2 Triple Crown at least.

nijinski
05-07-2012, 10:59 PM
I think you really have to watch closely how he works coming into to the next race. Alot of talent , fine breeding.
His connections have said they wanted to keep him him fresh for the Derby.
I don't always believe what they say and there were shin problems earlier in his career . Were they likely the reason for his earlier absence ?
They also have said they didn't want to run him back too soon because of the potential to bounce.. ( his only race in the slop , a bounce or disliked the going ) ? .
So things have worked out well so far . Now we have a shorter spacing .
Would be nice to have a TC winner . Personally , I'm not counting on it .
He did a fine job in the Derby though. Big hopes for IHA to stay sound and
and run big and hopefully prove us doubters wrong.

Hajck Hillstrom
05-08-2012, 12:34 AM
.... was the next Triple Crown winner...... :bang:





...and so it goes...

turninforhome10
05-08-2012, 03:04 AM
Look at the picture of I'll Have Another coming off the van at Pimlco
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2012/05/07/ill-have-another-travel-pimlico.aspx

He's a gorilla right now. The height of those withers and that shoulder and the ripple of the gaskin. He just could not look any better.

Marshall Bennett
05-08-2012, 06:02 AM
I knew after posting I'd get the correct spelling of Giacomo. :cool:

boogaloobboy
05-08-2012, 08:24 AM
He ran a nice Derby but no way he's our TC horse. Of course that begs the much more interesting question, will the TC winner be that monster of a horse or will the crop that yields it be that weak? I know the two are not mutually exclusive but I really feel that it will be a product more of the crop when it finally happens rather than the rebirth of Big Red.

maddog42
05-08-2012, 08:43 AM
Just so you know, I voted yes on the TC vote. More wishful thinking than anything. I actually think the odds are about 10/1 against.

maddog42
05-08-2012, 11:28 AM
One thing that kind of threw me off with I'll Have Another were the fairly tepid fractions in this two Santa Anita wins. But it's the track that threw me off because Santa Anita is one of the fastest tracks in North America, perhaps second fastest outside of Turf Paradise. I'll Have Another basically sat the perfect "pocket" trip right behind the leader in both wins and the fractions were modest for that track, or so I thought, then he rallied to win. He looked like one of many contenders in the Derby but I couldn't get too excited because he had dream trips.

I guess the lesson to be learned is that horses that can stalk and finish strongly are a force to be reckoned with even if the fractions seem modest. On the Bris race shapes his second call in the Lewis was -11 and in the S.A. Derby -12 and I find the race shapes to be an excellent indicator of how fast the pace was.

It seems that people are more excited about Bodemeister than the winner but we know that I'll Have Another can stalk a hot pace and finish, which is a sign of a classy horse. With Bodemeister, in both of his wins he was loose on the lead, so we don't know how versatile he is.

Modest fractions? I have a very slight difference of opinion on the fractions
for the Lewis. The 6f pace call was 70.52 and the other Stakes race that day for older horses was 70.03. The alwoc 40k race that day had a 70.08 6f pace call. The most I would penalize IHA for that slow Pace call would be .4 seconds or 2/5 ths. That brings his 6f Pace call to 70.92 with a Bris speed rating of 101. As I pointed out in another thread, the horses that competed against a sub 71 second pace call and still had 100 Bris ratings on a fast track were Bode and IHA. In reality the most I penalized IHA was 1/5 second.

Marshall Bennett
05-08-2012, 12:03 PM
I'm not even sure Bodemeister would have been a serious threat to win TC had he won Derby. The Belmont mile & half would have been too much I believe.
It takes a superstar far above the rest, or at least with nearly all TC winners that's been the case. I thought Big Brown was that horse and I still believe had Kent D. let the horse run as Mike Smith did Bodemeister in the Derby, he would have won.
I would be shocked if I'll Have Another wins the triple crown. It's so tough, and he's not that much better than what he'll be facing. I'd love nothing more however, to see him achieve. 10 to 1 is generous, I'd say more like 25-1.

maddog42
05-08-2012, 12:56 PM
I'm not even sure Bodemeister would have been a serious threat to win TC had he won Derby. The Belmont mile & half would have been too much I believe.
It takes a superstar far above the rest, or at least with nearly all TC winners that's been the case. I thought Big Brown was that horse and I still believe had Kent D. let the horse run as Mike Smith did Bodemeister in the Derby, he would have won.
I would be shocked if I'll Have Another wins the triple crown. It's so tough, and he's not that much better than what he'll be facing. I'd love nothing more however, to see him achieve. 10 to 1 is generous, I'd say more like 25-1.

You very well may be right. He may very well be no better than 4-1 in the preakness times 6-1 in the Belmont. No problem with those numbers. I suspect Bode will be the favorite in the Preakness IF he runs. I kinda doubt if he well.

Vinnie
05-08-2012, 12:59 PM
If Bodemeister runs and IHA can stay close enough to him, with the way that he is improving, I can see IHA winning the Preakness. As CJ pointed out he has won on the front, from Mid-pack and as a Presser. He is indeed showing some excellent versatility. If he gets it done at the Preakness and he stays sound he will be very dangerous in the Belmont because he has shown that he can get the distance. The Belmont is where horses like Dullahan and Went The Day Well could prove to be very dangerous at thwarting IHA's chances. I really hope that he can win the Preakness because it would make things very interesting for that final leg of the TC... :)

Striker
05-08-2012, 02:05 PM
I'm not even sure Bodemeister would have been a serious threat to win TC had he won Derby. The Belmont mile & half would have been too much I believe.
It takes a superstar far above the rest, or at least with nearly all TC winners that's been the case.
Why would the Belmont have been too tough for Bode?

Figaro
05-08-2012, 02:57 PM
Voted "Yes" because I want to be optimistic that IHA can pull it off, even though I understand it hasn't been done since 1978. If that can be done than there is hope for our Toronto Maple Leaf hockey team next season in breaking our curse of not winning a Stanley Cup since 1967. :D

thaskalos
05-08-2012, 03:09 PM
I say the odds are 40-1 against.

horses4courses
05-08-2012, 03:31 PM
I say the odds are 40-1 against.

I'd love to get down on some of that :)

Ballpark odds say he will go off 3-1 at Pimlico and, should he win, even money (or less) in the Belmont.
That's around 7-1 odds on the parlay......

Of course, history dictates that the odds should be higher.
It's a high mountain to climb.

Marshall Bennett
05-08-2012, 04:09 PM
Why would the Belmont have been too tough for Bode?
Simply don't believe he'd like the distance. He certainly couldn't fair well with fractions like he set at the Derby. He's no Secretariat.

Striker
05-08-2012, 04:55 PM
Simply don't believe he'd like the distance. He certainly couldn't fair well with fractions like he set at the Derby. He's no Secretariat.
He would certainly not be able to reproduce the fractions that he has run so far and go 1 1/2, but his pedigree is built for stamina and distance on both sides.

Grits
05-08-2012, 06:48 PM
IMO, unless there's a jockey change. It'll never happen. I don't see Ramon, out of the kindness of his heart, working with this young jock, teaching him how to time his move at the 1 1/2 distance.

Just as there's no race like the Derby. There's no race where timing is more important than the Belmont.

Too, last year after the Hopeful, IHA was off 5 months with, what, shin problems. He's also had shockwave therapy, recently. Sure, they can say its a good thing, its expensive, but we can afford it. Still, why?

Three tough races, five tough weeks. Gonna be there watching, it would be nice. I'd be dialing up Ramon's agent.

JPinMaryland
05-09-2012, 05:26 AM
IMO, unless there's a jockey change. It'll never happen. I don't see Ramon, out of the kindness of his heart, working with this young jock, teaching him how to time his move at the 1 1/2 distance.

Just as there's no race like the Derby. There's no race where timing is more important than the Belmont.
.


If you're talking about the internal clock that a jockey must keep throughout the race, then may be I would agree. But if you're talking about the timing of his move up; then I would be tempted to say the Preakness because the race is shorter and it seems you have to make that move on the turn. Or the derby since the field is larger and the perception that the turn if not tighter, is trickier due to some perception.

Grits
05-09-2012, 08:52 AM
If you're talking about the internal clock that a jockey must keep throughout the race

Yes. This is what I am speaking of.

Viruss
05-09-2012, 09:20 AM
I voted no...But i'm pulling for him to pull it off!!!

Valuist
05-09-2012, 09:44 AM
Lets hope he stays in one piece. We saw what happened with the likes of very lightly campaigned runners like Barbaro and Big Brown. He had run twice in 9 months before Saturday. Hopefully he has the foundation. One thing is for certain; the time to bet him was last Saturday. Not a week from this Saturday.

turninforhome10
05-09-2012, 09:51 AM
IMO, unless there's a jockey change. It'll never happen. I don't see Ramon, out of the kindness of his heart, working with this young jock, teaching him how to time his move at the 1 1/2 distance.

Just as there's no race like the Derby. There's no race where timing is more important than the Belmont.

Too, last year after the Hopeful, IHA was off 5 months with, what, shin problems. He's also had shockwave therapy, recently. Sure, they can say its a good thing, its expensive, but we can afford it. Still, why?

Three tough races, five tough weeks. Gonna be there watching, it would be nice. I'd be dialing up Ramon's agent.
So you discount the relationship this leading rider from Hastings and holder of multiple Hastings meet titles has with a horse that he just won 3 in a row on and has been getting on all year? The kid had ice in his veins on Saturday and rode a premier race. Why would Ramon need to teach this kid anything. How many Derbies has Ramon won? I believe Mario is 1 for 1. How many Triple Crown races has Ramon won?

raybo
05-09-2012, 11:08 AM
As I said before the Derby draw, it's much too early to predict a Triple Crown. It's much too early to predict the winner of the Preakness, we don't even know who will be running. We have no idea what the probable pace will be, so we have no idea who will be advantaged or disadvantaged.

I will say this, if Bodemeister does run the Preakness, you probably will not see him setting fractions comparable to what he did in the Derby, which directly advantaged I'll Have Another. He may not set the pace at all, but run off the pace a bit.

I still think Bodemeister is much the better horse of the two, and had he not set such blazing fractions, he would be the possible Triple Crown horse in this thread.

By the way, Bodemeister can rate off the pace, so IMO, if he skips the Preakness and runs the Belmont, he can make the mile and a half distance quite well. If he was my horse, he would not run the Preakness after such a grueling pace in the Derby, 2 weeks is not enough time for him to recover from that.

Grits
05-09-2012, 12:11 PM
So you discount the relationship this leading rider from Hastings and holder of multiple Hastings meet titles has with a horse that he just won 3 in a row on and has been getting on all year? The kid had ice in his veins on Saturday and rode a premier race. Why would Ramon need to teach this kid anything. How many Derbies has Ramon won? I believe Mario is 1 for 1. How many Triple Crown races has Ramon won?

One doesn't have to defend Ramon's riding skill at Belmont Park, or anywhere else. Stats tell the story.

http://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=jockey

Gutierrez has 660 wins, lifetime, with two riding titles 2007, 2008 at Hastings. Its likely he's never ridden a 1 1/2 race.

He rode well, yes. Louisville is a long way from Hastings. Belmont Park is about a thousand miles further. The Triple Crown, about 34 years and holding.

turninforhome10
05-09-2012, 12:14 PM
One doesn't have to defend Ramon's riding skill at Belmont Park, or anywhere else. Stats tell the story.

http://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=jockey

Gutierrez has 660 wins, lifetime, with two riding titles 2007, 2008 at Hastings. Its likely he's never ridden a 1 1/2 race.

He rode well, yes. Louisville is a long way from Hastings. Belmont Park is about a thousand miles further. The Triple Crown, about 34 years and holding.
How many triple crown races?

Grits
05-09-2012, 12:21 PM
Dude, read the stats or ignore 'em. I don't care what you do.

turninforhome10
05-09-2012, 12:24 PM
I am not knocking Ramon at all, he is one of my favorite riders who has never won a triple crown race. I think it is a shame. It seems like he always gets caught in trick bag as he is being pulled from this horse to that horse and never really gets a chance to bring one horse full circle. This year being tied up with the Hansen mess was a disaster.I would really love to see him get as many as possible. I would love to see how he would do on Bodiemeister at Pimlico. That would be the deal. Ramon on the engine puts em to sleep and draws off. IMHO Ramon is the king of pace. He is just to much of a rider to be out of the club much longer. Was not trying to bust ya Grits. Just with IHA that seems like a tandem that has a real unique chemistry with a Steve Cauthen type byline that I would like to see continue. Peace.

Scrambler
05-09-2012, 01:07 PM
Take Nothing Away From IHA, Very Very Nice Horse, BUT "Bodiemeister" Will do nothing but improve off that Race...:ThmbUp:


As Always Good Luck And Good Cappin........:ThmbUp:

Grits
05-09-2012, 01:18 PM
Peace, indeed. We desire good things for each of the riders. I believe Ramon to be one of the very best.

I hope he tells Dr.Hansen, "sorry, I'm going with _______." Dr Hansen had women giving out Hansen dolls, an airplane flyover with banner trailing. Its time for a cutback ..... for Dr.Hansen. :lol: Most likely, his horse, too. I wish both well, but the three ring circus does nothing for me.

I am not knocking Ramon at all, he is one of my favorite riders who has never won a triple crown race. I think it is a shame. It seems like he always gets caught in trick bag as he is being pulled from this horse to that horse and never really gets a chance to bring one horse full circle. This year being tied up with the Hansen mess was a disaster.I would really love to see him get as many as possible. I would love to see how he would do on Bodiemeister at Pimlico. That would be the deal. Ramon on the engine puts em to sleep and draws off. IMHO Ramon is the king of pace. He is just to much of a rider to be out of the club much longer. Was not trying to bust ya Grits. Just with IHA that seems like a tandem that has a real unique chemistry with a Steve Cauthen type byline that I would like to see continue. Peace.

Steve R
05-09-2012, 01:19 PM
He would certainly not be able to reproduce the fractions that he has run so far and go 1 1/2, but his pedigree is built for stamina and distance on both sides.
No it isn't. No daughter of Storm Cat has ever produced a major SW on dirt beyond 9f, and that's from over 2,500 foals.

turninforhome10
05-09-2012, 01:30 PM
Peace, indeed. We desire good things for each of the riders. I believe Ramon to be one of the very best.

I hope he tells Dr.Hansen, "sorry, I'm going with _______." Dr Hansen had women giving out Hansen dolls, an airplane flyover with banner trailing. Its time for a cutback ..... for Dr.Hansen. :lol: Most likely, his horse, too. I wish both well, but the three ring circus does nothing for me.
Could Ramon do for Hansen on the weeds what he did for Gio Ponti. Let's take up a collection to buy Hansen and watch him sweep the 3yo grass series. :lol:

Greyfox
05-09-2012, 01:37 PM
No it isn't. No daughter of Storm Cat has ever produced a major SW on dirt beyond 9f, and that's from over 2,500 foals.

That's an impressive stat - but how many races a year are carded over 9 furlongs?
How many of Storm Cat's daughter's have sent horses in them?

That could be a very untrustworthy statistic.
I wouldn't hold much stock in it until I saw what some of the data base boys can come up with.

Striker
05-09-2012, 02:50 PM
That's an impressive stat - but how many races a year are carded over 9 furlongs?
How many of Storm Cat's daughter's have sent horses in them?

That could be a very untrustworthy statistic.
I wouldn't hold much stock in it until I saw what some of the data base boys can come up with.
I would like to see these numbers also.

nijinski
05-10-2012, 12:32 AM
Could Ramon do for Hansen on the weeds what he did for Gio Ponti. Let's take up a collection to buy Hansen and watch him sweep the 3yo grass series. :lol:
LOL , Union Rags pedigree suggests he might not mind the green too.

cj
05-10-2012, 12:33 AM
Could Ramon do for Hansen on the weeds what he did for Gio Ponti. Let's take up a collection to buy Hansen and watch him sweep the 3yo grass series. :lol:

Hansen will not be a successful grass horse in my opinion. He is too headstrong.

turninforhome10
05-10-2012, 12:42 AM
Hansen will not be a successful grass horse in my opinion. He is too headstrong.
You have a good point, I have seen headstrong types freak out on the grass and never want to rate. It would just be nice to what the horse could do if Maker could get him away from all the nonsense and get his mind together.

menifee
05-10-2012, 02:29 AM
One doesn't have to defend Ramon's riding skill at Belmont Park, or anywhere else. Stats tell the story.

http://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=jockey

Gutierrez has 660 wins, lifetime, with two riding titles 2007, 2008 at Hastings. Its likely he's never ridden a 1 1/2 race.

He rode well, yes. Louisville is a long way from Hastings. Belmont Park is about a thousand miles further. The Triple Crown, about 34 years and holding.

I've watched this guy at Hastings and I am fairly confident, he'll be able to handle Belmont if they get there. He won a G3 mile and 3/8 race at Hastings when he was an apprentice in '07. I think Jockeys who come from the bull rings are able to handle pressure better than most.

letswastemoney
05-10-2012, 02:32 AM
I've watched this guy at Hastings and I am fairly confident, he'll be able to handle Belmont if they get there. He won a G3 mile and 3/8 race at Hastings when he was an apprentice in '07. I think Jockeys who come from the bull rings are able to handle pressure better than most.
Because it's a 1.5 mile track at Belmont Park, it's going to be easy to misjudge when he should start asking his horse. The distance of which he won races at Hastings doesn't matter because it's a different track configuration.

turninforhome10
05-10-2012, 10:37 AM
Because it's a 1.5 mile track at Belmont Park, it's going to be easy to misjudge when he should start asking his horse. The distance of which he won races at Hastings doesn't matter because it's a different track configuration.
You get out of the gate and take two lefts, not 3. Jocks get screwed at Belmont by going to wide on the back side, giving the horse a chance to get lost out there. See Big Brown.

Greyfox
05-10-2012, 11:57 AM
Because it's a 1.5 mile track at Belmont Park, it's going to be easy to misjudge when he should start asking his horse. The distance of which he won races at Hastings doesn't matter because it's a different track configuration.

True.
Bob Baffert blamed Kent Desormeaux for misjudging Real Quiet's final run to the finish by asking his colt a tad early in the Belmont Stakes after Victory Gallop nipped him at the wire. Desormeaux was a seasoned vet by then too.

OntheRail
05-10-2012, 12:54 PM
You get out of the gate and take two lefts, not 3. Jocks get screwed at Belmont by going to wide on the back side, giving the horse a chance to get lost out there. See Big Brown.
Big Brown did not get lost in the sands of Belmont. He was shinned by Guadalcanal coming out of the gate... right rear hoof and ripping 1/3rd or so of his shoe off and bending it. Had that of not happened things would of played out another way that day in June. :faint:

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2008/0623/espn_bigbrown_400.jpg

http://cdn.bloodhorse.com/images/content/bigbrown_shoebelmontstretch_bobmayberger298.jpg

maddog42
05-10-2012, 03:07 PM
I had read he had a shoe problem, but never had seen the picture until now.

Sysonby
05-10-2012, 05:04 PM
What I read before on this indicated that one of the nails from the shoe was actually going into the frog on his foot during the race and causing some of the agitation we saw.

PaceAdvantage
05-10-2012, 10:14 PM
If true, sure beats the "Safety Pin" excuse of another famously failed triple crown BID....

letswastemoney
05-11-2012, 02:51 AM
Big Brown would have faded just like Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, and War Emblem before him. He never was going to win the Belmont Stakes.

cj
05-11-2012, 03:14 AM
Big Brown would have faded just like Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, and War Emblem before him. He never was going to win the Belmont Stakes.

I'm not sure how anyone could conclude that when you consider Da Tara, Denis of Cork, Ready's Echo, and Anak Nakal took down the top 4 spots. Clearly Big Brown at 85% would beat those horses going 3 miles. I have no idea if it was the shoe or not, but something was amiss.

nijinski
05-11-2012, 03:25 AM
[QUOTE=Greyfox]Nope. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. He didn't need to wait for horses to shorten stride and then run them down.[/Q

That accomplishment of being the only undefeated horse to win the TC looks
tougher to match every year.

A quick off topic : Can they just throw out the criteria that needs to be met for HOF one time and give Billy Turner his due for the above handling .

Smarty Cide
05-12-2012, 07:44 PM
honestly i would be shocked if all have another even hits the board in the preakness. lets face it he got a perfect trip, when Bode tired out he was in the perfect spot at the perfect time to pick up the pieces.


the horse is a midcarder best case

Smarty Cide
05-12-2012, 07:54 PM
Big Brown would have faded just like Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, and War Emblem before him. He never was going to win the Belmont Stakes.


i disagree, big brown dominated his 3 yo class better then any horse in the past 30 years.


had that shoe no come off we would of had a triple crown winner

letswastemoney
05-12-2012, 08:54 PM
I'm not sure how anyone could conclude that when you consider Da Tara, Denis of Cork, Ready's Echo, and Anak Nakal took down the top 4 spots. Clearly Big Brown at 85% would beat those horses going 3 miles. I have no idea if it was the shoe or not, but something was amiss.
I guess I've just never liked Big Brown too much, but now that you've reminded me of his opponents, I see your point.

FlyinLate
05-12-2012, 09:47 PM
honestly i would be shocked if all have another even hits the board in the preakness. lets face it he got a perfect trip, when Bode tired out he was in the perfect spot at the perfect time to pick up the pieces.


the horse is a midcarder best case

lol this sounds like a scorned bettor of this year's derby. Lets face the facts, how many Derby winners as of recent HAVEN'T had great trips? Super Saver, Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Street Sense, etc.

To say he is a midcarder after defeating one of the arguably better groups of 3yo's in recent years is rash. Not to mention he's 3 of 3 this year in all graded stakes and didnt have a bad 2yo career. Go ahead and leave him off your tickets, let's see what happens.

pandy
05-12-2012, 10:01 PM
I agree. If you look at I'll Have Another's other two wins this year, the Lewis and the S.A. Derby, both perfect stalking trips. Well, how come he's so lucky...because he has the ability to stalk and then finish. He was not lucky in the Derby, he was the best. He makes his own luck because he is an athletic horse who can rate beautifully and he has the class to finish strongly.

Maximillion
05-12-2012, 10:31 PM
I agree. If you look at I'll Have Another's other two wins this year, the Lewis and the S.A. Derby, both perfect stalking trips. Well, how come he's so lucky...because he has the ability to stalk and then finish. He was not lucky in the Derby, he was the best. He makes his own luck because he is an athletic horse who can rate beautifully and he has the class to finish strongly.


Also agree, and i dont know that he was necessarily "helped" by the pace in the derby.

thaskalos
05-12-2012, 10:58 PM
I agree. If you look at I'll Have Another's other two wins this year, the Lewis and the S.A. Derby, both perfect stalking trips. Well, how come he's so lucky...because he has the ability to stalk and then finish. He was not lucky in the Derby, he was the best. He makes his own luck because he is an athletic horse who can rate beautifully and he has the class to finish strongly.
I don't normally knock athletic horses who have the ability to create their own luck...but I cannot be convinced that I'll Have Another was "best" in the Derby.

Bodemeister was best, IMO...but his performance was greatly compromised by the way the race was run.

The fast-slow scenario of the race played right into the hands of I'll Have Another...and all the other closers in the race.

raybo
05-12-2012, 11:03 PM
I don't normally knock athletic horses who have the ability to create their own luck...but I cannot be convinced that I'll Have Another was "best" in the Derby.

Bodemeister was best, IMO...but his performance was greatly compromised by the way the race was run.

The fast-slow scenario of the race played right into the hands of I'll Have Another...and all the other closers in the race.

I totally agree. If there was going to be a TC winner this year, Bode was the horse.

Maximillion
05-12-2012, 11:06 PM
I don't normally knock athletic horses who have the ability to create their own luck...but I cannot be convinced that I'll Have Another was "best" in the Derby.

Bodemeister was best, IMO...but his performance was greatly compromised by the way the race was run.

The fast-slow scenario of the race played right into the hands of I'll Have Another...and all the other closers in the race.


Thing is going into the race I didnt consider Ill Have Another a "closer" and thats one of the reasons im becoming more and more impresssed with him.

Dahoss2002
05-13-2012, 02:42 AM
He's gonna do it. IHA and Creative Cause 1-2

JPinMaryland
05-13-2012, 07:10 AM
:jump: Also agree, and i dont know that he was necessarily "helped" by the pace in the derby.

It's hard to tell if you are serious or not, but assuming you are, then: it has to do with how fast the earlier stages of the race was run. WHen horses are coming home in 26+ sec. for the final quarter they are pretty close to being spent. You can sort of tell this by looking at Bodie in the last 100 yards he's still trying but he has not burst. WHen horses come home in 27 the stagger is quite obvious even goofs like me watching on tv can see that.

In that situation, what we had on sat. horses can lose lots of lengths in a very short time. Went the Day well probably made up 9 lengths on a nearly spent Bodie in the final quarter; IHA at least 6.

If you ever saw Smary Jones stagger in the last 100 yards of the Belmont you would see him losing gobs of distance to Birdstone.

Now contrast that to a race where the pace is slower. At slower paces probably most of the field can run a sub 25 final quarter. YOu can find races like SEcretariats derby where almost the entire field is running that fast at the end. Few horses are making up much ground.

In those races even the better horses will not make up much ground they had better be close to the pace.

It's my guess that probably almost all the field could run a 24 sec quarter given a slow enuf fraction preceding it. This is for any given derby field. At a faster pace you would probably find half the field maybe could finish in 25+; and at a brutal pace you might find one SPend a Buck in a generation who might still throw a 25 flat final quarter.

These horses can lose a lot of lengths at the end of a race, and it doent correspond in an equal or linear fashion to what they give up at the beginning part. THe loss in time (and distance) at the end of a race is more like exponential in comparison to what what they gained at the beginning int terms of a lead..

Hope that helps you understand. :jump:

burnsy
05-13-2012, 08:59 AM
you are right about the pace but thats what bode tried to do and except for i'll have another he suceeded. when a horse goes that fast almost every horse is spent by the last quarter...the closers are so far back that a 26 does not matter at the end....they won't catch the front. i'll have another won that race fairly easily and the reason he did get a great trip is because he has really, really good tactical speed early to stay in touch. he could win the next two because his run is the best way to win the preakness and the belmont. both races are usually won by horses with his running style. of course once you get to belmont with the thing on the line (triple crown) the others throw the kitchen sink at you....ask smarty jones. but this horse is really good right now......two negatives why i voted no is the weather (he seems to hate wet tracks) and fatigue setting in.....but in the derby he won pretty easily...perfect trip or not.....the way he runs he gets a good trip almost every time.

Maximillion
05-13-2012, 07:10 PM
:jump:

It's hard to tell if you are serious or not, but assuming you are, then: it has to do with how fast the earlier stages of the race was run. WHen horses are coming home in 26+ sec. for the final quarter they are pretty close to being spent. You can sort of tell this by looking at Bodie in the last 100 yards he's still trying but he has not burst. WHen horses come home in 27 the stagger is quite obvious even goofs like me watching on tv can see that.

In that situation, what we had on sat. horses can lose lots of lengths in a very short time. Went the Day well probably made up 9 lengths on a nearly spent Bodie in the final quarter; IHA at least 6.

If you ever saw Smary Jones stagger in the last 100 yards of the Belmont you would see him losing gobs of distance to Birdstone.

Now contrast that to a race where the pace is slower. At slower paces probably most of the field can run a sub 25 final quarter. YOu can find races like SEcretariats derby where almost the entire field is running that fast at the end. Few horses are making up much ground.

In those races even the better horses will not make up much ground they had better be close to the pace.

It's my guess that probably almost all the field could run a 24 sec quarter given a slow enuf fraction preceding it. This is for any given derby field. At a faster pace you would probably find half the field maybe could finish in 25+; and at a brutal pace you might find one SPend a Buck in a generation who might still throw a 25 flat final quarter.

These horses can lose a lot of lengths at the end of a race, and it doent correspond in an equal or linear fashion to what they give up at the beginning part. THe loss in time (and distance) at the end of a race is more like exponential in comparison to what what they gained at the beginning int terms of a lead..

Hope that helps you understand. :jump:



My point was that Ill have Another had never been worse than second first call (excluding the slop run at 2) in any of his races-he faced an entirely new situation in the derby.....

Yes, Dullahan and Went the day well were no doubt "helped" by the fast/slow setup....IHA im not so sure...he made a winning (#) move(I think Ive heard it called a power move before) into a fast paced race,..he is not a one dimensional closer. I guess im trying to look beyond the obvious(like the above post)-maybe BODE is much better...find out in a week.

pandy
05-13-2012, 07:28 PM
I don't normally knock athletic horses who have the ability to create their own luck...but I cannot be convinced that I'll Have Another was "best" in the Derby.

Bodemeister was best, IMO...but his performance was greatly compromised by the way the race was run.

The fast-slow scenario of the race played right into the hands of I'll Have Another...and all the other closers in the race.

I'm not convinced, I think the winner was the best horse because you're overlooking the fact that the track was still wet and extremely fast and speed favoring and the closers were at a distinct disadvantage Friday and Saturday. Bodemeister raced with the bias, and the fractions were not as fast as they seemed.

Maximillion
05-13-2012, 10:27 PM
:jump:

It's hard to tell if you are serious or not, but assuming you are, then: it has to do with how fast the earlier stages of the race was run. WHen horses are coming home in 26+ sec. for the final quarter they are pretty close to being spent. You can sort of tell this by looking at Bodie in the last 100 yards he's still trying but he has not burst. WHen horses come home in 27 the stagger is quite obvious even goofs like me watching on tv can see that.

In that situation, what we had on sat. horses can lose lots of lengths in a very short time. Went the Day well probably made up 9 lengths on a nearly spent Bodie in the final quarter; IHA at least 6.

If you ever saw Smary Jones stagger in the last 100 yards of the Belmont you would see him losing gobs of distance to Birdstone.

Now contrast that to a race where the pace is slower. At slower paces probably most of the field can run a sub 25 final quarter. YOu can find races like SEcretariats derby where almost the entire field is running that fast at the end. Few horses are making up much ground.

In those races even the better horses will not make up much ground they had better be close to the pace.

It's my guess that probably almost all the field could run a 24 sec quarter given a slow enuf fraction preceding it. This is for any given derby field. At a faster pace you would probably find half the field maybe could finish in 25+; and at a brutal pace you might find one SPend a Buck in a generation who might still throw a 25 flat final quarter.

These horses can lose a lot of lengths at the end of a race, and it doent correspond in an equal or linear fashion to what they give up at the beginning part. THe loss in time (and distance) at the end of a race is more like exponential in comparison to what what they gained at the beginning int terms of a lead..

Hope that helps you understand. :jump:

I tend to shy away from betting stakes races but if this longwinded post represents the way the way the general public views the preakness it may create a great betting opportunity.......at least Imo......

plainolebill
05-14-2012, 12:04 AM
I tend to shy away from betting stakes races but if this longwinded post represents the way the way the general public views the preakness it may create a great betting opportunity.......at least Imo......

IHA will be a square price because this is the prevailing view - that Bodemeister was by far the best, despite the fact that IHA won. The two closers that finished 3rd and 4th will suck up a lot of money as well. I'm not convinced IHA is best but I suspect he will be a better gamble than the others who finished behind him in the derby.

CincyHorseplayer
05-14-2012, 12:34 AM
I can't knock IHA either because they race them all so infrequently that we have to be psychic to wonder when they will do their thing.I agree with James Quinn though,that when 3yo's improve,especially lightly raced,take it at face value,they are just becoming themselves.That said maybe Bodemeister has done too much too soon.It's at least worth considering in a bet against.

Striker
05-14-2012, 12:41 AM
It has been extremely difficult to wire the Preakness over the years. It hasn't been done since the early 80s. It won't be easy for Bode with or without other speed.

OntheRail
05-14-2012, 02:47 AM
It has been extremely difficult to wire the Preakness over the years. It hasn't been done since the early 80s. It won't be easy for Bode with or without other speed. Ummm what about 2009 Rachel Alexandra she may not of had open lengths till the far turn but she lead it.

El_w70ETmaw

Striker
05-14-2012, 01:32 PM
You are right with RA. I should have checked the chart/replay as I thought she didn't have the lead after the first 1/4 but she did by a slim margin.

MNslappy
05-19-2012, 06:25 PM
Can I change my vote?

wisconsin
05-19-2012, 06:28 PM
Who's gonna beat him?

raybo
05-19-2012, 06:31 PM
Tremendous race, a little slow early but --- tremendous!!

No excuses, I thought Bode was unbeatable if he was ready. Well, he was ready but just couldn't hold off I'll Have Another.

I enjoyed the heck out of this race!!

turninforhome10
05-19-2012, 06:35 PM
One doesn't have to defend Ramon's riding skill at Belmont Park, or anywhere else. Stats tell the story.

http://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=jockey

Gutierrez has 660 wins, lifetime, with two riding titles 2007, 2008 at Hastings. Its likely he's never ridden a 1 1/2 race.

He rode well, yes. Louisville is a long way from Hastings. Belmont Park is about a thousand miles further. The Triple Crown, about 34 years and holding.

Belmont is only about four hours away now.

horses4courses
05-19-2012, 06:37 PM
Interesting to see 78%+ figured no TC winner before Pimlico.
After this, the poll will be skewed.
Sure hope he makes it now! :ThmbUp:

cj
05-19-2012, 06:39 PM
Don't you think if the fractions are slower I'll Have Another will be up much closer? He seems very versatile and has won as a frontrunner, a presser, and now even mid pack to closer.

I like this horse. The public always underestimates versatile horses like him.

ArlJim78
05-19-2012, 06:40 PM
He looks like a sure thing now. Who's going to beat him?
It was nine lengths back to Creative Cause

lamboguy
05-19-2012, 06:43 PM
i originally said that this crop of 3 year olds were so good there was going to be a chance at a triple crown winner. BODIEMEISTER rand his hear out today, only to just about guarantee the sweep of the classic 3 yo races.

Run Nicholas Run
05-19-2012, 06:43 PM
Still like the NO,

Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Ill Have Another :eek:

Like Ruth, DiMaggio , Mantle , Costanza :D

Shelby
05-19-2012, 06:48 PM
I'm changing my vote. DAMN that horse has heart and so does his jockey. What a race! You know you're a fan when you have tears running down your face after the finish--good tears :) Racing needed this!

My long shot got 4th.....hit the super and the 50 cent pick 4. Not a large day but a good day :)

nearco
05-19-2012, 06:49 PM
He looks like a sure thing now. Who's going to beat him?
It was nine lengths back to Creative Cause

Fresh horses, like Dullahan and Union Rags.
But will have to start as hot favorite after today.

wisconsin
05-19-2012, 07:03 PM
Fresh horses, like Dullahan and Union Rags.
But will have to start as hot favorite after today.


Dixie Union has sired over 400 horses. None of them have ever won a stakes past 9 furlongs on any surface. Do you really want to consider this horse going 12 furlongs on June 9th?

ArlJim78
05-19-2012, 07:08 PM
Fresh horses, like Dullahan and Union Rags.
But will have to start as hot favorite after today.
do you think either of those horses, even if they are fresh will be up to the task?
Union Rags is too slow, and in the Belmont Dullahan will have a similar fate as Went the Day Well did today.

precisionk
05-19-2012, 07:14 PM
Last two races reminded me exactly of the Alydar/Affirmed feud. Literally playing out the exact same way. I was never a believer in IHA, but today certainly changed my mind.

Alydar/Affirmed v2.0

horses4courses
05-19-2012, 07:19 PM
Today was a prime example of why we love this sport

PaceAdvantage
05-19-2012, 07:21 PM
Damn I wish I could be as excited as some of you...but this horse doesn't have me...oh well...

Greyfox
05-19-2012, 07:23 PM
Dixie Union has sired over 400 horses. None of them have ever won a stakes past 9 furlongs on any surface. Do you really want to consider this horse going 12 furlongs on June 9th?

That is an impressive stat, on the face of it.
How many Stakes races a year are there over 9 furlongs?
How many of those Stakes races had Dixie Union's offspring in them??

precisionk
05-19-2012, 07:27 PM
Damn I wish I could be as excited as some of you...but this horse doesn't have me...oh well...

It's not necessarily the horse that is exciting. I think its the prospect of a potential Triple Crown winner that is exciting.

IHA certainly proved alot today. He may not be a magical superhorse, but he knows how to win. Hard to find a horse nowadays that knows how to win consistently.

forced89
05-19-2012, 07:38 PM
If jock stays cool (unlike Stewart Elliott), I think he wins the Belmont. Just use horse's closing kick in the middle of the long Belmont stretch.

LottaKash
05-19-2012, 07:42 PM
Last two races reminded me exactly of the Alydar/Affirmed feud. Literally playing out the exact same way. I was never a believer in IHA, but today certainly changed my mind.

Alydar/Affirmed v2.0

I thought that too....Looking forward to other encounters with those two....I hope we see them....

I was rootin for Bodiemeister, as I truly believe that we haven't see "all" that he has to offer being so litely raced and all....He's got the the guts to stay, I'd say....But, take nothing away from the champion of the first two biggies of the year....He's a gamer and a very hard tryer....I was impressed with his follow up victory from the Derby....

Additionally, when watching the several interviews pre-post, I got the feeling that Baffert saw what was coming....He knew that Bodie would do quite well, and he really did,but he also alluded to the track not being too kind to the fronters today....

Well, Bodie didn't bounce as some would think, but he's certainly met his match in this year's hierarchy of 3's, at this stage of the chase...STill, it was those 2 down the lane....What a hoss race !!

Hat's off to the connections of the winner, I'll be rootin for a Triple C Winner this year..

best,

Shelby
05-19-2012, 07:52 PM
Damn I wish I could be as excited as some of you...but this horse doesn't have me...oh well...

Why not?

maddog42
05-19-2012, 08:00 PM
I like this horse. The public always underestimates versatile horses like him.

This was race was twice as hard to win, as the Derby. I have been gushing embarassing fanboy remarks about this horse for the last hour.

depalma113
05-19-2012, 08:05 PM
Still like the NO,

Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Ill Have Another :eek:

Like Ruth, DiMaggio , Mantle , Costanza :D


Are you kidding?

If he wins the Belmont, he will have 4 Grade One wins in 5 starts. Hardly as classless as you are trying to paint him.

ArlJim78
05-19-2012, 08:06 PM
yep that's right, todays race was a gem. While Bodemeister was leaving Creative Cause in the dust, I'll Have Another goes after him and reels him in. really really impressed and satisfied with this Preakness.
this is the reverse of Affirmed/Alydar, this time it's the stalker who will not be denied.

Sysonby
05-19-2012, 08:32 PM
If jock stays cool (unlike Stewart Elliott), I think he wins the Belmont. Just use horse's closing kick in the middle of the long Belmont stretch.

Elliott was cool, it was Smarty Jones who wouldn't be held in that day

5k-claim
05-19-2012, 08:48 PM
Still like the NO,

Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Ill Have Another :eek:

Like Ruth, DiMaggio , Mantle , Costanza :DNo it isn't.

NYPlayer
05-19-2012, 08:56 PM
Fresh horses, like Dullahan and Union Rags...

Dullahan is likely the only real competition. So many of these 3 yr. olds are running like claimers, IHA could bounce and still win.

Leparoux
05-19-2012, 08:59 PM
Damn I wish I could be as excited as some of you...but this horse doesn't have me...oh well...
After the drama today, how could he not???

raybo
05-19-2012, 09:10 PM
After the drama today, how could he not???

I'm in agreement with PA on this. He's won the 1st 2 jewels and beaten Bode both times, but I'm not hung on him either. I'm more saddened that Bode didn't hold him off, as I think he should be able to do.

I was rooting for him, because we need another shot at a TC, and I'll be rooting for him in the Belmont, but I don't know that I'll have him ranked 1st in that race, yet. We'll see.

WJ47
05-19-2012, 09:12 PM
I'm not a fan of Doug O'Neill. But if IHA is good enough to win the Triple Crown, I'll be happy for him. I think he's got a good shot to win the Crown.

Bullet Plane
05-19-2012, 09:34 PM
Don't know why, but wound up rooting for Bode in the stretch. I didn't have a bet in the race.

I was hoping to see I'll Have Another right off the hip of Bode to see who was better "on the square."

That didn't happen, when Rosario pushed Creative Cause up into that spot. That horse dogged Bode through a sub-24 quarter, then two more 24 quarters... brutal!

Still, I thought Bode came off the turn at the quarter pole very good and would go onto win...

But, I'll Have Another did have a furious late kick.

Those two horses have given us a couple of very exciting races. I'm really hoping that we will see both of them at Belmont.

They have really got one hell of a rivalry going...

wisconsin
05-19-2012, 09:48 PM
That is an impressive stat, on the face of it.
How many Stakes races a year are there over 9 furlongs?
How many of those Stakes races had Dixie Union's offspring in them??


Who could possibly know the number off actual offsrping of Dixie Union that actually ran in a stakes race? I think 400 is a pretty good sample of underachieving, however. I don't know how many stakes are over 9 furlongs.

I also said before that no dam by Storm Cat has ever given birth to a graded stakes winner on dirt past 9 furlongs. That would be more than 2500 runners :eek: (see Bodemeister)

This is by no means the law, but I have a very hard time playing against trends this strong.

linrom1
05-19-2012, 09:55 PM
OMG. Rick's Natural Star is going to win TC 2012. :lol:

Greyfox
05-19-2012, 10:09 PM
Who could possibly know the number off actual offsrping of Dixie Union that actually ran in a stakes race? I think 400 is a pretty good sample of underachieving, however. I don't know how many stakes are over 9 furlongs.

I also said before that no dam by Storm Cat has ever given birth to a graded stakes winner on dirt past 9 furlongs. That would be more than 2500 runners :eek: (see Bodemeister)

This is by no means the law, but I have a very hard time playing against trends this strong.

It's not a strong trend if there aren't that many Stakes Races over 9 furlongs in a year and a very small percentage of the entrants have been from that line.
The statistic as it stands is interesting but questionable.

Beachbabe
05-19-2012, 10:14 PM
I don't know. This looks like Big Brown/Dick Dutrow redux. O'Neil kind of reminds me of Dutrow....
It wouldn't totally surprise me (as Big Brown's debacle did) if IHA jogs home last in The Belmont.
I hate to say all this and put a damper on everyone's expectations, but it's just the way I see it. I'm jaded, I know.

wisconsin
05-19-2012, 10:20 PM
Looked it up and there are 61 graded races over 9 furlongs in 2012.

This is a game in which every edge must be taken into account. I feel I have an edge.

Skanoochies
05-19-2012, 10:54 PM
Looked it up and there are 61 graded races over 9 furlongs in 2012.

This is a game in which every edge must be taken into account. I feel I have an edge.
How many of those races were run by three year olds in May and June? :confused:

plainolebill
05-20-2012, 12:07 AM
How many of those races were run by three year olds in May and June? :confused:

No dog in this fight but if they can't do it as older horses they are much less likely to do it early in their 3yo years.

iceknight
05-20-2012, 12:28 AM
I'm changing my vote. DAMN that horse has heart and so does his jockey. What a race! You know you're a fan when you have tears running down your face after the finish--good tears :) Racing needed this!

My long shot got 4th.....hit the super and the 50 cent pick 4. Not a large day but a good day :)
Congrats and good call on Zetterholm! I am eating humble pie with coffee today.. although I got back 9.30 on the exacta instead of just .12 left in the account.. so I am happy i guess

Burls
05-20-2012, 01:03 AM
Damn I wish I could be as excited as some of you...but this horse doesn't have me...oh well...I'm guessing your boy Bodemeister duplicated his 108 from the Arkansas Derby.
He had a dream trip, at his own pace and beat the show horse by 8 3/4 lengths.
Yet, IHA ran him down.
But he still doesn't have you? :bang:
What else could he possibly have done?

raybo
05-20-2012, 07:31 AM
It's about time for some of the pace and speed and daily variant guys to chime in here and tell us how much slower or faster the surface was in the Preakness versus the Derby. The pre-race interview with Baffert indicated that Bode would be allowed to "run his race", but Smith said he slowed him down after the 1st 1/4. Trying to figure what would have happened had Bode not beenslowed down, but had run fractions comparable to what he did in the Derby. How far ahead would he have been at the stretch call, etc..

The 1/16th pole (1 3/16m) in the Derby had Bode ahead by a head or so, the same distance run (1 3/16m) in the Preakness had IHA ahead by a neck. Was that difference the result of the slower fractional times, or was it going to happen regardless of the fractional times?

I'm not looking for excuses or saying that IHA was helped by the slower times, but trying to understand if the additional distance of the Belmont, and the deeper surface, longer stretch, etc., will favor one or the other horse.

Shelby
05-20-2012, 10:13 AM
Congrats and good call on Zetterholm! I am eating humble pie with coffee today.. although I got back 9.30 on the exacta instead of just .12 left in the account.. so I am happy i guess

Thank you :) It's not often I'm brave enough to post my bets for fear of being laughed off the board lol.

I need to watch the race again to see how Zetterholm ran. I was too focused on IHA and I missed it.

Shelby
05-20-2012, 10:27 AM
Tweet:

Donna Brothers ‏@donnabbrothers (https://twitter.com/#%21/donnabbrothers) Saw Paul & Zillah Reddam n hotel this AM after they had been 2 the track 2 c IHA. All is well! He goes 2 NY, they go 2 CA.




---------------------




Good to hear IHA is good to go :)

cj
05-20-2012, 11:27 AM
It's about time for some of the pace and speed and daily variant guys to chime in here and tell us how much slower or faster the surface was in the Preakness versus the Derby. The pre-race interview with Baffert indicated that Bode would be allowed to "run his race", but Smith said he slowed him down after the 1st 1/4. Trying to figure what would have happened had Bode not beenslowed down, but had run fractions comparable to what he did in the Derby. How far ahead would he have been at the stretch call, etc..

The 1/16th pole (1 3/16m) in the Derby had Bode ahead by a head or so, the same distance run (1 3/16m) in the Preakness had IHA ahead by a neck. Was that difference the result of the slower fractional times, or was it going to happen regardless of the fractional times?

I'm not looking for excuses or saying that IHA was helped by the slower times, but trying to understand if the additional distance of the Belmont, and the deeper surface, longer stretch, etc., will favor one or the other horse.

On the new scale I'm implementing this year, I had this:

Derby 4f: 107 1m: 91 F: 81
Preakness: 4f: 88 6f: 84 F: 86

A 100 is very fast and hasn't been reached in the final time column in any race dating back to Jan 1, 2004.

FlyinLate
05-20-2012, 02:22 PM
honestly i would be shocked if all have another even hits the board in the preakness. lets face it he got a perfect trip, when Bode tired out he was in the perfect spot at the perfect time to pick up the pieces.


the horse is a midcarder best case

LOL

raybo
05-20-2012, 02:25 PM
On the new scale I'm implementing this year, I had this:

Derby 4f: 107 1m: 91 F: 81
Preakness: 4f: 88 6f: 84 F: 86

A 100 is very fast and hasn't been reached in the final time column in any race dating back to Jan 1, 2004.

Thanks CJ!

So, it appears that the surface at the Preakness was not slower than the Derby, but faster? We know why the pace figures are lower in the Preakness, because Smith and Bode ran them slower, purposefully, but not because of a slower surface.

turninforhome10
05-20-2012, 02:37 PM
honestly i would be shocked if all have another even hits the board in the preakness. lets face it he got a perfect trip, when Bode tired out he was in the perfect spot at the perfect time to pick up the pieces.


the horse is a midcarder best case
Need a bookie?

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2012, 04:38 AM
Why not?It's not something tangible. I explained in another thread it all dates back to my love for Holy Bull.... :lol:

He ruined me for all others after him...I'll know it when I see it, and so far, I haven't seen it, although Big Brown almost got me, and Smarty Jones before him...

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2012, 04:42 AM
I'm guessing your boy Bodemeister duplicated his 108 from the Arkansas Derby.
He had a dream trip, at his own pace and beat the show horse by 8 3/4 lengths.
Yet, IHA ran him down.
But he still doesn't have you? :bang:
What else could he possibly have done?I'm talking about having me in terms of all-time TC greatness...obviously, he's the best 3yo this year...and I wasn't in love with Bodemesiter either...

I hate to say this, but something about IHA doesn't seem "deserving" of a Triple Crown. I know, stupid thing to say. I felt this way strongly about Real Quiet too...and a bunch of other TC potentials over the years...

PhantomOnTour
05-21-2012, 04:59 AM
I'm talking about having me in terms of all-time TC greatness...obviously, he's the best 3yo this year...and I wasn't in love with Bodemesiter either...

I hate to say this, but something about IHA doesn't seem "deserving" of a Triple Crown. I know, stupid thing to say. I felt this way strongly about Real Quiet too...and a bunch of other TC potentials over the years...
The one that comes to mind for me when when thinking of a "deserving" TC winner is Silver Charm.
He shoulda won it.
What a warrior; his Dubai World Cup win was the most determined effort i've ever seen from a horse. Maybe it's because that stretch at NAS seemed endless, but horse after horse made a run at him.
Loup Sauvage, Malek and finally Swain, but he turned 'em all away.

raybo
05-21-2012, 08:05 AM
If IHA takes the lead in the Belmont, or closely duels with Bode all the way, and walks a way from him, I'll be convinced he's the best of the 3 year olds.

If he runs the same type race as the first 2 jewels and wins in the final 1/16th then he still won't have me convinced.

Like PA, for me, there's just something missing.

tucker6
05-21-2012, 08:23 AM
one thing is certain, if IHA wins the TC, you'll see a lot less of him this year and none next year.

lamboguy
05-21-2012, 08:34 AM
one thing is certain, if IHA wins the TC, you'll see a lot less of him this year and none next year.if Redham wants to pay the insurance, you will see that horse run next year. if he insures the horse for $30 million, it will cost about $4million for the year for premiums. i don't know if he can win that much in purses.

his horse looks like a nice healthy and sturdy animal.

pandy
05-21-2012, 08:41 AM
Ray, you just said that if he wins the Belmiont off a s stalking trip you still may not consider him the best 3yo. Wow, tough crowd.

lamboguy
05-21-2012, 09:13 AM
this horse is proving his greatness, just by the way he progress's every race he runs. this horse had to beat 19 others in the kentucky derby, 15 of them got knocked out of the preakness. this is what horse racing is all about, its like a boxing match.

i like the way the trainer is handling this horse without a work for baltimore. he will probably need something for his next race, i hope he goes in 1:03 in hand so the horse doesn't leave his race on the track in the morning. funnycide blew his belmont by going fast in the morning 4 days before the race.

Vinnie
05-21-2012, 09:42 AM
If IHA wins the Belmont period, you have to take your hat off to him. Front end, mid pack, or way from the back. This horse is currently showing an excellent understanding and feel for how the race is setting up and seems very comfortable in his own abilities. Running clearly on the front or lead would seem to me to be a crazy move when he is showing that he can rate and of late just sit off of the lead and kick it in late to get it done. That long Belmont stretch has been the ruin of many in their efforts. If Gutierrez just lets him cruise until late, he will be mighty tough in the late stages of the race.

There is a million things that can go wrong of course, but, I am truly pulling for him to get it done on June 9th. :)

Zippy Chippy
05-21-2012, 11:30 AM
I've always said when a horse wins the TC I will be there. I was there for Smarty and Big Brown. Since I've quit gambling I've realized that the last place I will be is at the track. Which works out good since I'll be on my honeymoon in Curacao :-) Almost seems fitting that it will happen from my perspective.

Still a fan of the sport and always will be. I really am pulling for him to win. Will definitely be the #1 sports moment of my life if he can do it.

CincyHorseplayer
05-21-2012, 02:54 PM
The one that comes to mind for me when when thinking of a "deserving" TC winner is Silver Charm.
He shoulda won it.
What a warrior; his Dubai World Cup win was the most determined effort i've ever seen from a horse. Maybe it's because that stretch at NAS seemed endless, but horse after horse made a run at him.
Loup Sauvage, Malek and finally Swain, but he turned 'em all away.

He was a warrior.I loved that horse and was just watching him about an hour ago from taped episodes on ESPN Classic.I didn't feel anything about the other bids but I sure did with Silver Charm.

I know you didn't say it POT,but about "Deserving" a triple crown it makes me think of Citation.He faced all of 17 horses total in the 3 triple crown races.Did he deserve it?if IHA can do this he is worthy.

horses4courses
05-21-2012, 03:09 PM
I'm talking about having me in terms of all-time TC greatness...obviously, he's the best 3yo this year...and I wasn't in love with Bodemesiter either...

I hate to say this, but something about IHA doesn't seem "deserving" of a Triple Crown. I know, stupid thing to say. I felt this way strongly about Real Quiet too...and a bunch of other TC potentials over the years...

I know what you mean.
Charismatic and Real Quiet were in the same boat - and they went very close.

At the same time, it's been so long since a TC winner, I'd settle for any win.
Affirmed wasn't as good as Secretariat, or Seattle Slew, but that really doesn't matter when you take down 3 classic races within 5 weeks.
I'll be rooting for I'll Have Another in the Belmont! :ThmbUp:

gm10
05-21-2012, 04:41 PM
He has a legitimate chance, but my suspicion is that he is a Smarty Jones kind of horse. With hat I mean that he is a very good horse, one that excels at 10F, but he will need the circumstances to be optimal in order to win the Belmont because he is not THAT good.

It will depend on the field but I already have an idea of potential upsetters. At this point I make it 50/50.

Maximillion
05-21-2012, 04:49 PM
If IHA takes the lead in the Belmont, or closely duels with Bode all the way, and walks a way from him, I'll be convinced he's the best of the 3 year olds.

If he runs the same type race as the first 2 jewels and wins in the final 1/16th then he still won't have me convinced.

Like PA, for me, there's just something missing.


I think he ran down an above average G1 3yo who had a dream setup and delivered what looked (to me at least)to be his optimal performance...not real easy to do

pandy
05-21-2012, 04:56 PM
You may recall that coming into the Derby, many handicappers, and I include myself in this group, felt that Smarty Jones had more of a speed pedigree and looked like a classic sprinter/mile type that would probably find 10 furlongs too long. His dosage rating was 3.40.

I'll Have Another has a dosage rating of 2.11 and is especially bred to love long races on the dam's side where he traces back to long-winded horses like Roberto and Pleasant Colony.

I'll Have Another also looks like a stamina horse, with his long stride and his sustained grinding style.

Smarty Jones had quicker action and ran like a speed horse with quick bursts of speed. Certainly many handicappers felt that the Belmont would be his undoing.

gm10
05-21-2012, 04:57 PM
If IHA takes the lead in the Belmont, or closely duels with Bode all the way, and walks a way from him, I'll be convinced he's the best of the 3 year olds.

If he runs the same type race as the first 2 jewels and wins in the final 1/16th then he still won't have me convinced.

Like PA, for me, there's just something missing.

Why would he duel with Bode in the Belmont??? He's a better horse, so why duel with a horse in the early part of a 12F race when you'll beat him anyway. (Bode is not going anyway).

raybo
05-21-2012, 05:17 PM
Why would he duel with Bode in the Belmont??? He's a better horse, so why duel with a horse in the early part of a 12F race when you'll beat him anyway. (Bode is not going anyway).

Just stating my opinion. Nobody is going to change that opinion, only the horse can do that.

I'm not an IHA hater, I'll be rooting for him in the Belmont for sure (although I may not think he will win and I might be betting that he doesn't) because racing needs a TC winner. But, I simply believe that Bodemeister has more success ahead of him than IHA, in my opinion, he's a better horse.

horses4courses
05-21-2012, 05:24 PM
Why would Bodemeister run in the Belmont?
The horse clearly has his limits stretched beyond 10 furlongs.
There are plenty of nice races waiting for this horse down the road.
The Belmont isn't one of them......

pandy
05-21-2012, 05:44 PM
Bode is not going to run in the Belmont.

CincyHorseplayer
05-21-2012, 06:28 PM
You may recall that coming into the Derby, many handicappers, and I include myself in this group, felt that Smarty Jones had more of a speed pedigree and looked like a classic sprinter/mile type that would probably find 10 furlongs too long. His dosage rating was 3.40.

I'll Have Another has a dosage rating of 2.11 and is especially bred to love long races on the dam's side where he traces back to long-winded horses like Roberto and Pleasant Colony.

I'll Have Another also looks like a stamina horse, with his long stride and his sustained grinding style.

Smarty Jones had quicker action and ran like a speed horse with quick bursts of speed. Certainly many handicappers felt that the Belmont would be his undoing.

Good stuff Pandy.:ThmbUp:

Bullet Plane
05-21-2012, 06:31 PM
Why would Bodemeister run in the Belmont?
The horse clearly has his limits stretched beyond 10 furlongs.
There are plenty of nice races waiting for this horse down the road.
The Belmont isn't one of them......

For sportsmanship? For racing fans?

I don't see how you figure he has stretched his limits at 10f, he has beaten everybody but IHA not once, but twice at classic distances.

Maybe IHA is better, who knows?

But even if he is, anything can happen in a horse race. I think some people forget this is horseracing. Hello.... hello this is horseracing! A very random game. That is why people bet on it.

Remember when Smarty Jone fell? Remember when War Emblem stumbled out of the gate? Remember when Charismatic and Barbaro did not finish their races? Hell, anything can happen. Maybe the jocks will box him in at the rail. Who knows? You don't, I don't, and nobody else does either.

Hell, if I owned Bode, I would go for it!!

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2012, 06:50 PM
Hell, if I owned Bode, I would go for it!!I wouldn't, and I'm the first to applaud a sporting nature in this game (like Jess Jackson was with Rachel Alexandra)...

There would be absolutely no point in running Bode in the Belmont...because even without the presence of IHA, he probably wouldn't win...

nijinski
05-21-2012, 06:50 PM
Baffert knows Bode better than all of us . He wants to wait for the Haskell .
I'm sure he knows the schedule , the distance and all other factors needed
to keep his horse at his best .

Shelby
05-21-2012, 06:54 PM
As much as I'd like to see another re-match, I think Bob B. is doing the right thing. Bode needs a rest and I don't think there is any way he would win Belmont.

pandy
05-21-2012, 07:43 PM
It would be great for racing but if I owned Bodemeister I definitely would not run him in the Belmont, I'd look for a spot that gives him a good chance to win, like the Haskell.

horses4courses
05-21-2012, 08:04 PM
Hello.... hello this is horseracing! A very random game. That is why people bet on it.

Thank you so much for the clarification :rolleyes:

raybo
05-21-2012, 08:09 PM
Well, heck.

I really think I would have not run Bode in the Preakness, and saved him for the Belmont. The Preakness is the least of the 3 TC races, and after losing in the Derby he had no chance for the TC, so why run him back in 2 weeks when you could have waited 5 and run in probably the most valuable of the 3, regarding future value.

By the way, IMO, he could have handled the Belmont distance and surface, especially if he had not run the Preakness. He might not be the best mile and a half horse in the country but he'd have done fine.

Anyway, it was fun while it lasted!

Go IHA! Git r dun!!

Burls
05-21-2012, 10:06 PM
If IHA takes the lead in the Belmont, or closely duels with Bode all the way, and walks a way from him, I'll be convinced he's the best of the 3 year olds.

If he runs the same type race as the first 2 jewels and wins in the final 1/16th then he still won't have me convinced.

Like PA, for me, there's just something missing.Since Mario Gutierrez came on board, that has been IHA's M.O., though.
Look at the results for IHA's 4 races with MG as jockey.
RB Lewis - 1st by 2 lengths at the stretch call, 1st by 2 3/4 at the finish line - Beyer 96.
SA Derby - 3rd by 1/2 a length at the stretch call, 1st by a nose at the finish line - Beyer 95.
Ky Derby - 2nd by 3 lengths at the stretch call, 1st by 1 1/2 at the finish line - Beyer 101.
RB Lewis G2 - 2nd by 3 1/2 lengths at the stretch call, 1st by a neck at the finish line - Beyer 109.
The last 3 have all been exactly the same.
He comes up fairly quickly on the opening straightaway, patiently stays a few lengths back for the middle of the race, makes up a few lengths in the second half of the final turn if necessary, fires up the retro rockets after he straightens out from the final turn, then takes over the pace in the dying seconds.
BOD runs every race as fast he possibly can and has to be first at every call of the race.
IHA runs as fast as he needs to to win the race in the straightaway.
We know what BOD is capable of doing; we don't yet know what IHA is capable of doing.
My prediction is that IHA is going to run exactly the kind of Belmont that, in your words "wins in the final 1/16th" and "still won't have you convinced."

raybo
05-21-2012, 10:11 PM
My prediction is that IHA is going to run exactly the kind of Belmont that, in your words "wins in the final 1/16th" and "still won't have you convinced."

Doesn't really matter now that Bode is out, he just needs to win the race, whatever it takes.

RXB
05-22-2012, 01:28 PM
The one that comes to mind for me when when thinking of a "deserving" TC winner is Silver Charm.
He shoulda won it.
What a warrior; his Dubai World Cup win was the most determined effort i've ever seen from a horse. Maybe it's because that stretch at NAS seemed endless, but horse after horse made a run at him.
Loup Sauvage, Malek and finally Swain, but he turned 'em all away.

Silver Charm was definitely a very good and admirable horse; I think he was the best of all of the TC hopefuls since Sunday Silence. That said, Touch Gold beat him fair and square in the Belmont and would've defeated him in the Preakness, too, if it hadn't been for that face plant at the start. Touch Gold was an immensely talented horse until foot problems essentially ruined his ability.

That 1997 Preakness was fantastic; one of the best races ever. The top four were all very good horses and all four ran well enough that day to win the Preakness in most other years.

rtOGPhSdfGI

horses4courses
05-22-2012, 03:59 PM
For sportsmanship? For racing fans?

I don't see how you figure he has stretched his limits at 10f, he has beaten everybody but IHA not once, but twice at classic distances.

Hell, if I owned Bode, I would go for it!!

Bodemeister's next race will be his 7th this year.
You really want to send the colt 12 furlongs in early June, and hope to have a healthy horse to campaign beyond that?
They're not stock cars.....

This horse has, obviously, one effective running style. Fast .
You can't get him to switch off, and amble along for a while.
Maybe that will come in time, but he can't do it yet.

It's pretty noticeable that after around 9 furlongs, the horse is less effective.
In my opinion, he has little chance of running well over 12 furlongs.
Hopefully, he won't ever have to.
I'd like to see him win the BC Classic this year. :ThmbUp:

horses4courses
05-24-2012, 10:43 AM
Neither Bodemeister, nor Creative Cause, will run in the Belmont.


http://www.drf.com/news/bodemeister-targets-haskell-creative-cause-may-try-turf

Trainers doing the right thing, imo.

Scrambler
05-24-2012, 06:05 PM
Bodemeister is A Stone Cold Runner, and This Guy Past Him Like He was Standing Still....


Very Very Nice Horse, IHA, I Hope he does it..:ThmbUp:

jerry-g
05-25-2012, 04:31 PM
I'm still in the apprentice stage of my handicapping skills having not graduated from Handicappers 101 after 15 years of study. I do notice things I consider positives and I believe Dullahan can now do it at Belmont. I had the horse to win the Ky Derb and he ran third. I felt he could beat Bodemeister and since that horse will not be at Belmont, I believe Dullahan to be the reversal horse to I'll Have Another. On the positive side, Dullahan has a fast 5F works on 5/19 and he is freshened up. IHA is trying to recover from his great efforts. I think he is a world class horse however. His last work was 4/19 but no doubt they are letting him catch his wind again. If Dullahan repeats what he did in the Blue Grass he'll take it from IHA. Just my opinion. Take it with a cube of sugar.

raybo
05-25-2012, 04:40 PM
Bodemeister is A Stone Cold Runner, and This Guy Past Him Like He was Standing Still....

Really? Maybe I watched the wrong races.

nijinski
05-26-2012, 07:31 AM
Is NY still the only state that bans the Nasal Strip?
This looks like IHA's first race without it . Doubt it makes a difference .
If he were my horse though I'd be upset about changing anything coming
into the Belmont.

PICSIX
05-26-2012, 07:43 AM
Is NY still the only state that bans the Nasal Strip?
This looks like IHA's first race without it . Doubt it makes a difference .
If he were my horse though I'd be upset about changing anything coming
into the Belmont.

Racing really needs a governing body in order to have some kind of uniformity! Removing the nasal strip(s) is a equipment change, to what extent I have no clue. Could it make a difference in performance? Possibly, horses do get used to their race day routines.
Maybe a few trainers with first hand knowledge could chime-in here?!?!

Mike

Grits
05-26-2012, 07:51 AM
Is NY still the only state that bans the Nasal Strip?
This looks like IHA's first race without it . Doubt it makes a difference .
If he were my horse though I'd be upset about changing anything coming
into the Belmont.

Nj, these strips always puzzle me. They look like duct tape sitting on the top of a horse's nose. They always have.

My only question after reading the quote below?

Have you ever seen duct tape fall off of a single thing in your life? SERIOUSLY! I have not!!! :lol:

One could hold a car together with duct tape.

Part of the issue, Hill said, is what to do with a horse who was scheduled to wear a nasal strip if the strip comes off in the paddock or at the gate, perhaps because of wet weather. Further, Hill said there has not been a clamor among New York horsemen to use it.

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-2012-stewards-wont-permit-ill-have-another-wear-nasal-strip-belmont-stakes

tbwinner
05-26-2012, 09:37 AM
Racing really needs a governing body in order to have some kind of uniformity! Removing the nasal strip(s) is a equipment change, to what extent I have no clue. Could it make a difference in performance? Possibly, horses do get used to their race day routines.
Maybe a few trainers with first hand knowledge could chime-in here?!?!

Mike

My trainer uses them on all of her stock she sends out. She believes it truly has SOME help for helping airflow and I personally believe it is one of those things that applies to the horsemen's creed - "if it's worth doing, it's worth overdoing". It has no adverse effect, so, why not?

Greyfox
05-26-2012, 09:41 AM
Is NY still the only state that bans the Nasal Strip?
This looks like IHA's first race without it . Doubt it makes a difference .
.

Nasal strips?
I wear one at night and it helps me sleep better. Certainly it improves breathing.
Some jockeys wear them. I've seen Nakatani with one.
Football players wear them.
Does it make a difference with horses?
If it improves air flow it likely does make a difference on performance if only slightly.
In close races inches count.

Sysonby
05-26-2012, 10:35 AM
Nasal strips decrease airway resistance which means that less energy is going into breathing, more oxygen getting to legs.

Also, studies have shown that, unlike Lasix, nasal strips actually do decrease bleeding in horses, figures were 38 to 66% decrease.

This could potentially make a big difference.

highnote
05-26-2012, 10:57 AM
Banning nasal strips has to be the dumbest rule in racing.

You can change the horse's shoes, use a different bridle, put blinkers on the horse, stop using or begin using certain raceday drugs, change the jockey, trainer and owner, even remove his testicles!

But you can't use nasal strips in NY? WTF?

raybo
05-26-2012, 11:12 AM
Banning nasal strips has to be the dumbest rule in racing.

You can change the horse's shoes, use a different bridle, put blinkers on the horse, stop using or begin using certain raceday drugs, change the jockey, trainer and owner, even remove his testicles!

But you can't use nasal strips in NY? WTF?

Totally agree! What's the big deal if one comes off during a race? It's not like it's going to affect the running of the race, and certainly won't injure another horse or jockey. Stupid!!

Sysonby
05-26-2012, 11:59 AM
I just sent an e-mail to NYRA community relations people about this. The rule makes no sense. One of the few benign pieces of equipment that can have a real effect on a common problem for horses while racing is banned? Why?

Tom
05-26-2012, 04:02 PM
They banned turn downs once, too.
But not for all trainers, as it turned out. :rolleyes:

When we don't get a triple crown winner, there will be a thread the it was NRA's fault.

I'm guessing that since they stopped reporting use of the strips in the PPs, they must be a pretty powerful piece of equipment. Why do I have no faith in this game? OH, yeah, never mind....I remember.

Tom
05-26-2012, 04:04 PM
One could hold a car together with duct tape.

One has.
More than once. :cool:

Greyfox
05-26-2012, 04:23 PM
From: http://www.flairstrips.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/An-Edge-With-Every-Breath.pdf

“Many people think the horse will get more air. Not so. We’re looking at a closed system, full lungs are full lungs. But if we can help them get the same amount of air with less work, the results are reduced pressure, less stress, not more air or more oxygen.
It will not make the horse run faster, but if the nasal strip puts less strain on a horse, makes him more relaxed, it has to be beneficial.”
The strips were released in the US in late 1999 and had imediate success with the legendary American thoroughbred trainer D. Wayne Lukas winning the $Us 4M Breeders Cup with an outsider, Cat Thief. An interesting aside to the race was Pat Day; the Irish jockey wore a Breathe Right nasal strip."

Re: The above, I'd say:

Theoretically, the strip won't make a horse run faster.
However, talk to any long distance athlete and they will tell you that a relaxed runner will run faster.

LottaKash
05-26-2012, 04:31 PM
Also, studies have shown that, unlike Lasix, nasal strips actually do decrease bleeding in horses, figures were 38 to 66% decrease.

This could potentially make a big difference.

Strips NO, Lasix YES...haha...

best,

raybo
05-26-2012, 04:34 PM
From: http://www.flairstrips.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/An-Edge-With-Every-Breath.pdf

“Many people think the horse will get more air. Not so. We’re looking at a closed system, full lungs are full lungs. But if we can help them get the same amount of air with less work, the results are reduced pressure, less stress, not more air or more oxygen.
It will not make the horse run faster, but if the nasal strip puts less strain on a horse, makes him more relaxed, it has to be beneficial.”
The strips were released in the US in late 1999 and had imediate success with the legendary American thoroughbred trainer D. Wayne Lukas winning the $Us 4M Breeders Cup with an outsider, Cat Thief. An interesting aside to the race was Pat Day; the Irish jockey wore a Breathe Right nasal strip."

Re: The above, I'd say:

Theoretically, the strip won't make a horse run faster.
However, talk to any long distance athlete and they will tell you that a relaxed runner will run faster.


Yeah, and a horse who breathes easier won't bleed as easily either, but then that might lessen the use of Lasix. Can't have that. Wonder if any of those people get a portion of the Lasix profits? Hmmmm---

classhandicapper
05-26-2012, 08:05 PM
I sleep with nasal strips. Huge difference for me. I love them.

PaceAdvantage
05-27-2012, 11:37 AM
It really doesn't make much sense given all the other equipment that can be used or not used that goes unreported (tongue ties, shadow rolls, different bits, etc.)

I think the stewards should make an exception and allow IHA to run with the nasal strip. After all, as has been reported, this is a stewards ruling only, and not a NYSRWB ruling...perhaps they will change their minds as race day approaches...

highnote
05-27-2012, 12:13 PM
It really doesn't make much sense given all the other equipment that can be used or not used that goes unreported (tongue ties, shadow rolls, different bits, etc.)

I think the stewards should make an exception and allow IHA to run with the nasal strip. After all, as has been reported, this is a stewards ruling only, and not a NYSRWB ruling...perhaps they will change their minds as race day approaches...


Maybe this was a compromise between trainer and Belmont. The trainer is facing a 45 day suspension. In order to be allowed to train IHA for the Belmont he had to agree to forego the use of nasal strips on his horse. :rolleyes:

PaceAdvantage
05-27-2012, 12:16 PM
Are you saying that perhaps the stewards fear this nasal strip is somehow being used as a drug delivery system? :lol:

classhandicapper
05-27-2012, 01:38 PM
Given what IS going on in this industry that everyone knows about (let alone what they don't know), the banning of nasal strips makes me think I'm living in a bad Twilight Zone episode. It's sad and hysterical at the same time.

highnote
05-27-2012, 02:05 PM
Are you saying that perhaps the stewards fear this nasal strip is somehow being used as a drug delivery system? :lol:


I didn't think of that possibility, but now that you mention it... :D

highnote
05-27-2012, 02:09 PM
Given what IS going on in this industry that everyone knows about (let alone what they don't know), the banning of nasal strips makes me think I'm living in a bad Twilight Zone episode. It's sad and hysterical at the same time.


It has to be about the most ludicrous thing I've heard. I know this ruling has been in place for quite some time. I thought they would have changed it by now.

Greyfox
05-27-2012, 02:21 PM
Are you saying that perhaps the stewards fear this nasal strip is somehow being used as a drug delivery system? :lol:

I never thought of that either, but hmm... isn't that how the "Patch" works to help smokers quit? Hmm...

nijinski
05-27-2012, 02:31 PM
Nj, these strips always puzzle me. They look like duct tape sitting on the top of a horse's nose. They always have.

My only question after reading the quote below?

Have you ever seen duct tape fall off of a single thing in your life? SERIOUSLY! I have not!!! :lol:

One could hold a car together with duct tape.



http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-2012-stewards-wont-permit-ill-have-another-wear-nasal-strip-belmont-stakes

Hard to believe Dr Hill was serious . Wonder if he would have said the same about Zenyatta's cotton stuffed ears , lol.

nijinski
05-27-2012, 02:42 PM
I never thought of that either, but hmm... isn't that how the "Patch" works to help smokers quit? Hmm...

Since they do test for illegal drugs and overages , it would be a poor choice to cheat. Traces of evidence could be picked up right from the strip .
This would just confirm the the other test results. Plenty of pain patches
out there if they are crazy enough to use them in a race.

Grits
05-27-2012, 05:37 PM
A few observations from jockey, Ron Turcotte.

http://www.windsorstar.com/sports/Turcotte+says+Belmont+easy+ride/6677457/story.html

tucker6
05-27-2012, 06:10 PM
A few observations from jockey, Ron Turcotte.

http://www.windsorstar.com/sports/Turcotte+says+Belmont+easy+ride/6677457/story.html
from the article on celebrating victory ...

"He did something in the Preakness I did not approve of," said Turcotte. "It is not only him who does it. All the young jockeys do it now. It is when they raise their sticks in the air, and one day a horse will duck from something and it could cause a serious accident.
"I remember when I was riding Secretariat or Riva Ridge, you never saw me or any of the other jocks doing that. We would keep our hands strictly on the reins, and get the horse back safely.

"There was one time when Jean Cruguet, who won the 1977 Triple Crown with Seattle Slew, started celebrating.

"I pulled up next to him and yelled, 'Cruguet why are you taking chances like that? One day you and the horse could get hurt.' Soon after the race he was called before the stewards about his celebration. He stopped."

I can't say I disagree. Act like you've been to the winner's circle before.

Tom
05-27-2012, 06:36 PM
Are you saying that perhaps the stewards fear this nasal strip is somehow being used as a drug delivery system? :lol:

No, but when they used to report it being used, there were some nice form reversals - both ways with the strips.

Personally, I don't see how the stewards can allow IHA to use it - it would be unfair to the hundreds of trainers who are not allowed to use it at NYRA.

Do rules mean anything anymore? If there is zero reason for IHA not to use it, then there is zero reason not to allow ALL to use it. How many OTHER things are allowed for some and not others the we never hear about? I still remember the turn down fiasco that NYRA did a piss poor job of enforcing. That was when I stopped playing NYRA as my main train.

canleakid
05-27-2012, 08:38 PM
"Theoretically, the strip won't make a horse run faster.
However, talk to any long distance athlete and they will tell you that a relaxed runner will run faster"


I wear them for my 5k & 10 k races and they help me ;) damn wish I would of used them when I ran marathons :bang:

5k-claim
05-27-2012, 09:04 PM
from the article on celebrating victory ...

"He did something in the Preakness I did not approve of," said Turcotte. "It is not only him who does it. All the young jockeys do it now. It is when they raise their sticks in the air, and one day a horse will duck from something and it could cause a serious accident.
"I remember when I was riding Secretariat or Riva Ridge, you never saw me or any of the other jocks doing that. We would keep our hands strictly on the reins, and get the horse back safely.

"There was one time when Jean Cruguet, who won the 1977 Triple Crown with Seattle Slew, started celebrating.

"I pulled up next to him and yelled, 'Cruguet why are you taking chances like that? One day you and the horse could get hurt.' Soon after the race he was called before the stewards about his celebration. He stopped."

I can't say I disagree. Act like you've been to the winner's circle before.I can't say I disagree, either.

I bet, then, that Turcotte wanted to reach through his television and strangle Mickael Barzalona after the Dubai World Cup last month. I probably won't react too strongly when that kid gets himself hurt someday, but he also stands a chance of getting someone else hurt as well. That will mark the end of his stupid stunts, and any public or media defense of them.

.

Figaro
05-29-2012, 02:55 PM
I'm crossing my fingers for IHA and hoping he comes out a winner at Belmont. Totally ready for the curse to be broken this year. I want Hollywood to come knocking to make a movie about IHA when he's victorious.

On a sidenote, I watched race replays for previous Triple Crown winners such a Secretariat (1973) and Affirmed (1978). No wonder why it is such a difficult task these days, the fields are just too large compared to the old days when Triple Crown races had fields of only 6 horses to go against.

jdhanover
05-29-2012, 03:38 PM
I can't say I disagree, either.

I bet, then, that Turcotte wanted to reach through his television and strangle Mickael Barzalona after the Dubai World Cup last month. I probably won't react too strongly when that kid gets himself hurt someday, but he also stands a chance of getting someone else hurt as well. That will mark the end of his stupid stunts, and any public or media defense of them.

.

It won't....in baseball last year kendry Morales' season ended in a walk-off HR celebration. They still do them today. Hard to stop the emotion at key moments.


Separately - I dont think the larger fields is the main reason for the lack of a triple crown winner in recent years. I think we got spoiled with Secretariat as then we see another a few years later in the epic Affirmed-Alydar TC races.

nijinski
05-29-2012, 04:10 PM
No, but when they used to report it being used, there were some nice form reversals - both ways with the strips.

Personally, I don't see how the stewards can allow IHA to use it - it would be unfair to the hundreds of trainers who are not allowed to use it at NYRA.

Do rules mean anything anymore? If there is zero reason for IHA not to use it, then there is zero reason not to allow ALL to use it. How many OTHER things are allowed for some and not others the we never hear about? I still remember the turn down fiasco that NYRA did a piss poor job of enforcing. That was when I stopped playing NYRA as my main train.

Tom , I totally see the point of not making exceptions for one horse. That would be unfair as you pointed out . I think many just don't understand NY's
ban on them and would like to see it lifted oneday. Doubt it will be Belmont Stakes Day though. Dr Hill's concern about them falling off is laughable . What damage would that do?
I remember many who used turn downs , toe grabs and the like , upset about that ban. There were Veterinarians concerned about the action on the horses legs and surface damage .I think they had to go , that's just my opinion.
Your point is taken , Any ban imposed should be enforced with a heavy hand .

pandy
05-29-2012, 04:20 PM
The short fields were because no one wanted to run against those horses. Think about it, would you want to go against Secretariat, Seattle Slew, or Alydar and Affirmed? Of course the fields were small.

I was at Belmont for Secretariat and Seattle Slew and there was not much drama because everyone knew we were going to have a Triple Crown winner, it was just a matter of how much they would win by. We didn't go to the Belmont to see if Big Red or Slew would win the Triple Crown, we went to see them win the Belmont, they were locks. Those horses were freaks.

When Affirmed won it was different because of Alydar, who everyone knew had a big shot.

KingChas
05-29-2012, 05:01 PM
On a sidenote, I watched race replays for previous Triple Crown winners such a Secretariat (1973) and Affirmed (1978). No wonder why it is such a difficult task these days, the fields are just too large compared to the old days when Triple Crown races had fields of only 6 horses to go against.

Why larger fields now...this helps a little. ;)

Belmont Stakes
Purse of $1,000,000

Winner
$620,000 (62%)

Second
$200,000 (20%)

Third
$100,000 (10%)

Fourth
$50,000 (5%)

Fifth
$30,000 (3%)

Grits
05-29-2012, 05:04 PM
But, how prevalent back then was the habit of skipping one, or maybe two, of the races to wait for the Belmont?

This is extremely common now, as you know.

Cardus
05-29-2012, 05:07 PM
Since Mario Gutierrez came on board, that has been IHA's M.O., though.
Look at the results for IHA's 4 races with MG as jockey.
RB Lewis - 1st by 2 lengths at the stretch call, 1st by 2 3/4 at the finish line - Beyer 96.
SA Derby - 3rd by 1/2 a length at the stretch call, 1st by a nose at the finish line - Beyer 95.
Ky Derby - 2nd by 3 lengths at the stretch call, 1st by 1 1/2 at the finish line - Beyer 101.
RB Lewis G2 - 2nd by 3 1/2 lengths at the stretch call, 1st by a neck at the finish line - Beyer 109.
The last 3 have all been exactly the same.
He comes up fairly quickly on the opening straightaway, patiently stays a few lengths back for the middle of the race, makes up a few lengths in the second half of the final turn if necessary, fires up the retro rockets after he straightens out from the final turn, then takes over the pace in the dying seconds.
BOD runs every race as fast he possibly can and has to be first at every call of the race.
IHA runs as fast as he needs to to win the race in the straightaway.
We know what BOD is capable of doing; we don't yet know what IHA is capable of doing.
My prediction is that IHA is going to run exactly the kind of Belmont that, in your words "wins in the final 1/16th" and "still won't have you convinced."

Burls, you have a freaky avatar.

Cardus
05-29-2012, 05:16 PM
It really doesn't make much sense given all the other equipment that can be used or not used that goes unreported (tongue ties, shadow rolls, different bits, etc.)

I think the stewards should make an exception and allow IHA to run with the nasal strip. After all, as has been reported, this is a stewards ruling only, and not a NYSRWB ruling...perhaps they will change their minds as race day approaches...

Why should an exception be made for this horse?

Grits
05-29-2012, 06:20 PM
From the front page of http://www.flairstrips.com/

During exercise when horses begin to breathe hard the soft tissues overlying the nasal passages are sucked in, reducing the airway diameter. This reduction in diameter causes greater resistance to airflow into the lungs. FLAIR Strips gently support the soft tissues over the nasal passages providing reduced airway resistance during exercise. By reducing airway resistance during exercise, FLAIR Strips help prevent fatigue related injuries, help protect the lungs from injury and bleeding and promote optimal athletic performance.

A relaxed horse will breathe better, yes, as the creators and CEO of Flair strips explains. Jockeys and exercise riders are in agreement. Still, they've not been embraced by trainers a great deal because, often, trainers are looking for that 8 length improvement. It doesn't always work that way as we know.

I want I'll Have Another to win the Belmont badly. The strip is used to raise, or keep in place the soft tissue atop the horse's airway, to keep it fully open allowing no restriction, whatsoever, in getting air to the animal's lungs. This, helping him not to tire, to remain at his optimal condition throughout the race.

Any means by which one opens an airway to its maximum, one can be sure that individual is going to work better and rest better, therefore, run better. Even the least amount of change could be beneficial. The creator stating, "full lungs are full lungs, its a closed system" isn't a suitable response. If the test results indicate the pressure in the animals lungs is not elevated then, yes, there's suitable air flow. If he didn't bleed, yes, there must be suitable air flow. But this may not be the end of reasoning.

Every year, humans are diagnosed as not getting enough air, enough oxygen into their lungs which in turn creates high lung pressures. They don't sleep well due to cessation of their breathing because their airway is impeded, again, by soft tissue obstruction. They don't rest well, they don't work well.

You can't put a CPAP mask on a horse, but you can, by means of a nasal strip, further open his airway. And yes, he'll relax because he's NOT working as hard as he would if he were not getting the optimal amount of air, which is certainly possibly in any runner.

As far as the bleeding thing? Keeping it at a minimum? What's the worry, every runner's been on lasix since the day they were born.

IMHO, no, its not a drug, but it should be looked upon as equipment. If all the horses are wearing one, let's roll. If not, keep the nasal strip in the barn.

I sure hope he wins, strip or no strip.

“Many people think the horse will get more air. Not so. We’re looking at a closed system, full lungs are full lungs. But if we can help them get the same amount of air with less work, the results are reduced pressure, less stress, not more air or more oxygen.

It will not make the horse run faster, but if the nasal strips put less strain on the horse, makes him more relaxed, it has to be beneficial.

Sysonby
05-29-2012, 09:44 PM
Why should an exception be made for this horse?

I don't think anyone's calling for an exception for one horse, but some of us are having a hard time understanding the ban in one jurisdiction on something that in theory and in practice appears to have a positive effect on a common racing problem, bleeding.

Tom
05-29-2012, 10:17 PM
Why should an exception be made for this horse?

If they allow him to use a strip, and he wins, he gets an asterisk.
If they say it was not an unfair advantage for him to wear one, it says the NYRA rule is flat out stupid.

My 2 cents - it is flat out stupid.
Get rid of the rule today - forever.

Tom
05-29-2012, 10:20 PM
Dr Hill's concern about them falling off is laughable . What damage would that do?

The only problem I can think of is if they put them on with....safety pins!:lol:

iceknight
05-29-2012, 10:53 PM
IMHO, no, its not a drug, but it should be looked upon as equipment. If all the horses are wearing one, let's roll. If not, keep the nasal strip in the barn.

Do you mean to say, if all horses are [I]allowed[/] the option of wearing one, let's roll. Blinkers are equipment too, but some horses wear it, others don't. I don't know if all horses have identical tissue structure in their nose, but I know from humans that many people do fine without nasal strips etc.

What I do find odd and disconcerting is that the Triple Crown in the only "championship" where competitors in R2 and R3 are allowed the luxury of walking up fresh, instead of a true playoff or run every race type competition.

iceknight
05-29-2012, 10:55 PM
The only problem I can think of is if they put them on with....safety pins!:lol:
:lol: nice one!

PaceAdvantage
05-29-2012, 10:57 PM
Why should an exception be made for this horse?Why not? The article points out this is a stewards-only decision. This isn't a NYSRWB rule...thus, them being stewards, they could easily reverse their decision and start allowing it on Belmont Stakes day and going forward.

PaceAdvantage
05-29-2012, 10:58 PM
If they allow him to use a strip, and he wins, he gets an asterisk.
If they say it was not an unfair advantage for him to wear one, it says the NYRA rule is flat out stupid.

My 2 cents - it is flat out stupid.
Get rid of the rule today - forever.How ridiculous. An asterisk? You must be joking.

What they would do, since this is a stewards-only rule according to the DRF article, is proclaim that starting on June 9, nasal strips are now allowed.

Problem solved, and fair for all.

Greyfox
05-29-2012, 11:04 PM
How ridiculous. An asterisk? You must be joking.

What they would do, since this is a stewards-only rule according to the DRF article, is proclaim that starting on June 9, nasal strips are now allowed.

Problem solved, and fair for all.

Why wait til June 9??

thaskalos
05-29-2012, 11:16 PM
Why not? The article points out this is a stewards-only decision. This isn't a NYSRWB rule...thus, them being stewards, they could easily reverse their decision and start allowing it on Belmont Stakes day and going forward.

You can not change the rule just for the benefit of this one horse...because it doesn't look good.

We have to assume that other trainers have asked for permission to run their horses with nasal strips in the past...and they have been refused.

What do you tell these trainers now...when they see you change the rule to suit Mr. O'Neill?

PaceAdvantage
05-29-2012, 11:28 PM
You can not change the rule just for the benefit of this one horse...because it doesn't look good.

We have to assume that other trainers have asked for permission to run their horses with nasal strips in the past...and they have been refused.

What do you tell these trainers now...when they see you change the rule to suit Mr. O'Neill?No, you wouldn't change it for one horse. You'd allow ALL horses from that point forward to use the strip.

Problem solved.

(It doesn't matter what the past was...as long as all are allowed going forward, it's fair)

thaskalos
05-29-2012, 11:32 PM
No, you wouldn't change it for one horse. You'd allow ALL horses from that point forward to use the strip.

Problem solved.

(It doesn't matter what the past was...as long as all are allowed going forward, it's fair)

It's not fair...because it's obvious that I'll Have Another is the reason why you are making the rule change at this time.

What good is a rule -- ANY rule -- if it doesn't apply to all?

PaceAdvantage
05-29-2012, 11:42 PM
It's not fair...because it's obvious that I'll Have Another is the reason why you are making the rule change at this time.

What good is a rule -- ANY rule -- if it doesn't apply to all?Oh lordy...are you another who is joking with me?

So what you're saying is, this ban should be in effect FOREVER...even if they decide it's ok to use, just because it was once banned, it should ALWAYS be banned...

That's just silly.

Who cares what the reason is? So what if the reason is IHA? As long as the ban is lifted FOR ALL HORSES, it's fair game going forward.

thaskalos
05-29-2012, 11:48 PM
Oh lordy...are you another who is joking with me?

So what you're saying is, this ban should be in effect FOREVER...even if they decide it's ok to use, just because it was once banned, it should ALWAYS be banned...

That's just silly.

Who cares what the reason is? So what if the reason is IHA? As long as the ban is lifted FOR ALL HORSES, it's fair game going forward.

The fair thing, IMO, is to change the rule on June the 10th.

PaceAdvantage
05-29-2012, 11:50 PM
The fair thing, IMO, is to change the rule on June the 10th.That would make absolutely no sense at all. In fact, I would venture a guess that all the NYRA bashers would be out in full force decrying such a move, especially if IHA lost.

thaskalos
05-29-2012, 11:58 PM
That would make absolutely no sense at all. In fact, I would venture a guess that all the NYRA bashers would be out in full force decrying such a move, especially if IHA lost.

I don't understand what your position is then...

You say that changing the rule now should not be viewed as doing a favor for Doug O'Neill...and you are against changing the rule on June the 10th.

Is it totally unnecessary to change the rule if I'll Have Another doesn't benefit from it in the Belmont?

Why does lifting the ban AFTER the Belmont make "no sense at all"?

Is Doug O'Niell the sort of trainer whom racing jurisdictions should go out of their way to please?

Sysonby
05-30-2012, 12:25 AM
I actually think they should just change the rule, period. It makes no sense not to let them use these. They are about as natural a way as you can get to lower bleeding in any horse whose trainer cares to use them. Any advantage they give a horse racing with them in terms of lower energy required for respiratory function is balanced by the fact that any trainer would be able to use them on any horse.

nijinski
05-30-2012, 12:48 AM
I don't understand what your position is then...

You say that changing the rule now should not be viewed as doing a favor for Doug O'Neill...and you are against changing the rule on June the 10th.

Is it totally unnecessary to change the rule if I'll Have Another doesn't benefit from it in the Belmont?

Why does lifting the ban AFTER the Belmont make "no sense at all"?

Is Doug O'Niell the sort of trainer whom racing jurisdictions should go out of their way to please?

Can we just say for the sake of the horse and all horses who chose to wear it .
Let's hope the stewards get enough pressure to do it right away.

PaceAdvantage
05-30-2012, 02:52 AM
I don't understand what your position is then...

You say that changing the rule now should not be viewed as doing a favor for Doug O'Neill...and you are against changing the rule on June the 10th.

Is it totally unnecessary to change the rule if I'll Have Another doesn't benefit from it in the Belmont?

Why does lifting the ban AFTER the Belmont make "no sense at all"?

Is Doug O'Niell the sort of trainer whom racing jurisdictions should go out of their way to please?I never said it shouldn't be viewed as doing a favor for I'll Have Another (I couldn't care less about O'Neill...he is what he is...a product of a mismanaged industry). Being viewed as doing a favor for IHA doesn't bother me in the least....why?

Because I'll Have Another would be the IMPETUS for change. And that change would benefit ALL who want to use this piece of equipment.

If you're going to lift this ban, lift it IN TIME for IHA to use what he's been using all along...in the Belmont...in his quest for the TC.

To lift it AFTER the Belmont Stakes would be the height of ridiculousness. I'm sorry you don't see that.

dkithore
05-30-2012, 05:38 AM
Guys! why don't u ask members (poll)?

If u ask me, it does not make sense to do it on the day of the event, for it looks like favoring the horse. New rule after ninth looks equally silly. Do it, "Effective immediately" or beginning of the year.

Dk

p.s. or ask Jessica's opinion!

Tom
05-30-2012, 07:39 AM
How ridiculous. An asterisk? You must be joking.

What they would do, since this is a stewards-only rule according to the DRF article, is proclaim that starting on June 9, nasal strips are now allowed.

Problem solved, and fair for all.

Not ridiculous if they allow him to wear them and deny everyone else. If they dump the rule for all horses, great, if they merely make an exception, yes, an asterisk - special rules do not a champion make.

No matter what they do, we will never get the information anyway. Too much work to keep the bettors informed by our resident data whores.

raybo
05-30-2012, 08:11 AM
The way I see it, when the strips are allowed to be used, isn't the question (but if its benefits are healthier horses overall, then the sooner the better). If the "stewards" are convinced that the strips are beneficial to the health of horses who tend to bleed or otherwise have trouble breathing, and there are no adverse effects to horses in general, then their deciding to lift the ban now, rather than later, would appear to be fair, regardless if there is an I'll Have Another in the Stakes or not.

They would simply need to make the announcement correctly, stating that the decision was based on the overall health of race horses, not a particular horse in a particular race.

lamboguy
05-30-2012, 08:25 AM
the way it looks to me, DOUG O'NEIL must think he is sitting on a cinch going into the final leg of the triple crown. he doesn't think his horse needs a work over the track. he does not want to risk running his race in the morning instead of the afternoon like FUNNYCIDE did.

his strategy could work out perfect if his horse takes to the BELMONT surface. i always liked to work at least twice before i ran a horse there.

DOUG knows his horse better than anyone else, so we are going to have to trust his judgment. the horse might be that good that he could hop the start of the race and still win.

turninforhome10
05-30-2012, 09:29 AM
The way I see it, when the strips are allowed to be used, isn't the question (but if its benefits are healthier horses overall, then the sooner the better). If the "stewards" are convinced that the strips are beneficial to the health of horses who tend to bleed or otherwise have trouble breathing, and there are no adverse effects to horses in general, then their deciding to lift the ban now, rather than later, would appear to be fair, regardless if there is an I'll Have Another in the Stakes or not.

They would simply need to make the announcement correctly, stating that the decision was based on the overall health of race horses, not a particular horse in a particular race.
If the rule is to be re-written, it must carry language to the effect that if the strip falls off, the horse shall remain in the body of the race. Changing the rule and not changing the outcome of the effect of the equipment change ie scratching the horse, could wreak havoc on the pools and open a whole nuther can o worms.

Grits
05-30-2012, 09:57 AM
Do you mean to say, if all horses are [I]allowed[/] the option of wearing one, let's roll. Blinkers are equipment too, but some horses wear it, others don't. I don't know if all horses have identical tissue structure in their nose, but I know from humans that many people do fine without nasal strips etc.

What I do find odd and disconcerting is that the Triple Crown in the only "championship" where competitors in R2 and R3 are allowed the luxury of walking up fresh, instead of a true playoff or run every race type competition.

Yes. This is what I'm saying. Give trainers the choice and roll on. This is not invasive, this is not harmful to the animal. All horses have the same nasal structure, but yes, like humans, some breathe better than others while under exertion.

Do it for all, or do it for none. But, it is unusual that this only comes from one steward, at this time.

I agree about skipping parts of the TC. THIS, I believe, should be changed. Just my opinion.

Dahoss9698
05-30-2012, 10:40 AM
In the last 10 years, if we didn't allow horses who did not compete in the Derby, to run in other legs of the crown....we would have missed Rachel Alexandra's Preakness, Bernardini in the Preakness and Rags To Riches in the Belmont to name a few.

I just don't see that change helping things much, especially nowadays. What we would likely be left with is a 3 horse field in the Belmont. That is what makes the triple crown so difficult to achieve. You have to maintain your form, while beating foes you already have...as well as fresh shooters.

classhandicapper
05-30-2012, 10:56 AM
In the last 10 years, if we didn't allow horses who did not compete in the Derby, to run in other legs of the crown....we would have missed Rachel Alexandra's Preakness, Bernardini in the Preakness and Rags To Riches in the Belmont to name a few.

I just don't see that change helping things much, especially nowadays. What we would likely be left with is a 3 horse field in the Belmont. That is what makes the triple crown so difficult to achieve. You have to maintain your form, while beating foes you already have...as well as fresh shooters.

How about adding bonus money to the winning purse of the Belmont if the horse competed in all three races?

That way there will be some incentive to run in the Belmont if you ran in the first two and the Belmont is a marginal decision and also an incentive to not skip the Preakness because you want to aim for the BELMONT.

raybo
05-30-2012, 11:07 AM
How about adding bonus money to the winning purse of the Belmont if the horse competed in all three races?

That way there will be some incentive to run in the Belmont if you ran in the first two and the Belmont is a marginal decision and also an incentive to not skip the Preakness because you want to aim for the BELMONT.

Not a bad idea, sort of like "appearance money". Sounds like that would benefit racing. It's kind of like when Tiger was at the top of his golf game, attendance increased if he was in the tournament.

Greyfox
05-30-2012, 11:08 AM
I agree about skipping parts of the TC. THIS, I believe, should be changed. Just my opinion.

So Grits let me get this straight. You and iceknight think that only horses that ran in the first two legs of the Triple Crown should be allowed to race in the Belmont.

This year the Belmont Stakes would consist of Alpha, Dullahan, I'll Have Another and Union Rags.

Geez. That would be exciting. A 4 horse race. :sleeping:

raybo
05-30-2012, 11:19 AM
Another thing that might help the situation might be a specific number of qualifying races, around the country and the world, from which horses accumulated qualifying points based on their finishing positions, rather than the current lifetime earnings that the Derby uses for entry into the race. This might prevent lightly raced horses who get into the Derby, at the last minute, via 1 big win or a couple of big wins, from qualifying and not being in condition for the beginning of the 3 TC races. If these qualifying races were spaced properly, those participating horses would have sufficient time to recuperate between them and possibly be in better form for the Derby, making them more likely to retain their form for the other 2 legs of the TC.

I personally think that this might have prevented Bodemeister from being withdrawn from the Belmont, as he would have had more time to recuperate prior to the Derby, and might have come into that race fully rested. I also think that 3 weeks, instead of 2, between the Derby and the Preakness would help some regain their form after a hard Derby effort.

I mean, wouldn't it benefit racing better to have full competitive fields, throughout the TC series, containing the same horses for the public to follow, root for, and bet on?

Marshall Bennett
05-30-2012, 11:21 AM
So Grits let me get this straight. You and iceknight think that only horses that ran in the first two legs of the Triple Crown should be allowed to race in the Belmont.

This year the Belmont Stakes would consist of Alpha, Dullahan, I'll Have Another and Union Rags.

Geez. That would be exciting. A 4 horse race. :sleeping:
Yeah, that would sorta stink. Leave the damn thing alone.

Dahoss9698
05-30-2012, 11:35 AM
How about adding bonus money to the winning purse of the Belmont if the horse competed in all three races?

That way there will be some incentive to run in the Belmont if you ran in the first two and the Belmont is a marginal decision and also an incentive to not skip the Preakness because you want to aim for the BELMONT.

That's an idea, although you would hope the big purse would be enough to draw out horses.

I don't know if I'm 100% in agreement with giving horseman more money to run, especially with the recent purse hike in NY. It feels like as horseplayers we always tend to blame tracks for small fields, when in reality, it's the horsemen not running for whatever reason which leads to small fields.

Greyfox
05-30-2012, 11:38 AM
Yeah, that would sorta stink. Leave the damn thing alone.

OOps. Actually I made a mistake. No need for a race.
We'd have to declare I'll Have Another the winner.
Alpha, Dullahan, and Union Rags skipped the Preakness.
Optimizer ran in the Preakness but not the Derby.

KingChas
05-30-2012, 02:57 PM
How about adding bonus money to the winning purse of the Belmont if the horse competed in all three races?



Agree add bonus money then divvy it up accordingly between 1st place finisher all the way to last place finisher........% wise.

Would have to set up some kind of qualifying rules and maximum posts somewhat like the derby.

Not a novel idea NASCAR and PGA have been paying out like this for years to qualifiers.

PS;Don't forget for years Visa offered a large bonus for winning the TC,they never had to payout but it just went away. :confused:

LottaKash
05-30-2012, 03:39 PM
I still don't get it.....Horses are allowed to run with Bute, Lasix, while on a regimen of Steroids even, yet Human athletes cannot....But Human athletes can use "breathe-rite" strips, in essence a band-aid, while horses cannot.....I just don't get it, at all..

best,

KingChas
05-30-2012, 03:55 PM
"However, stewards at New York Racing Association racetracks, which includes Belmont Park, have decided not to allow nasal strips. This is not a New York State Racing and Wagering Board rule, nor even a Belmont Park house rule. It is a decision made by the stewards."

Exsisting equipment previously worn by the horse.No rule against it until now.

We all know NYRA stewards have always been known to make great decisions .

One day an owner or trainer is going to get fed up with their trivial bullshit and pull the horse from the race,
regardless of the circumstances.(TC shot)

Which would lose NYRA millions,nothing that has never happened in the past though............ ;)

Grits
05-30-2012, 04:04 PM
In the last 10 years, if we didn't allow horses who did not compete in the Derby, to run in other legs of the crown....we would have missed Rachel Alexandra's Preakness, Bernardini in the Preakness and Rags To Riches in the Belmont to name a few.

I just don't see that change helping things much, especially nowadays. What we would likely be left with is a 3 horse field in the Belmont. That is what makes the triple crown so difficult to achieve. You have to maintain your form, while beating foes you already have...as well as fresh shooters.

You're right. I thought about this after I left the house this morning. After I had posted. I'm wrong.

It takes a special animal to achieve this, no doubt, and we would have 3 horse fields. Too, I sure would've hated to miss Rachel's Preakness! And to miss taking my 82 year old mom to NY with me for Belmont Week where she screamed her brains out for Rags to catch Curlin. A feminist her entire life, right down to a filly beating a colt. I'll never forget that afternoon, that race. We had so much fun.

Cardus
05-30-2012, 04:05 PM
I don't think anyone's calling for an exception for one horse, but some of us are having a hard time understanding the ban in one jurisdiction on something that in theory and in practice appears to have a positive effect on a common racing problem, bleeding.

PA's post -- to which I replied -- begins, "I think that stewards should make an exception..."

I concluded from that clause that someone was asking for an exception.

Call me crazy.

Cardus
05-30-2012, 04:19 PM
You can not change the rule just for the benefit of this one horse...because it doesn't look good.

We have to assume that other trainers have asked for permission to run their horses with nasal strips in the past...and they have been refused.

What do you tell these trainers now...when they see you change the rule to suit Mr. O'Neill?

Reading PA's subsequent posts, I see that he meant all of the horses, though he did not present it that way in his initial post.

Conceding that point, I think that we would agree that the foundation for changing the rule to benefit all of the horses who run that day -- and, as PA added, from that day forward -- would be I'll Have Another, and that such a change is a bad idea.

It certainly would not look good for a rule to be changed 10 days before the Belmont Stakes when it would impact -- from the standpoint that there would be no deviation in his raceday equipment -- the horse pursuing the Triple Crown.

For me, it would reek of desperation to see a horse win the Triple Crown.

To see a change so close to this race, and to watch him win two Saturdays from now after a rule was changed with one horse in mind, would cheapen the accomplishment.

Cardus
05-30-2012, 04:21 PM
Can we just say for the sake of the horse and all horses who chose to wear it .
Let's hope the stewards get enough pressure to do it right away.

Let's hope that the stewards reject any pressure against them to change a rule so close to a race with the principal player in mind.

To change it now would be doing things the wrong way.

KingChas
05-30-2012, 04:36 PM
" This is not a New York State Racing and Wagering Board rule, nor even a Belmont Park house rule.
It is a decision made by the stewards."
From DRF article.




Conceding that point, I think that we would agree that the foundation for changing the rule to benefit all of the horses who run that day -- and, as PA added, from that day forward -- would be I'll Have Another, and that such a change is a bad idea.

It certainly would not look good for a rule to be changed 10 days before the Belmont Stakes when it would impact -- from the standpoint that there would be no deviation in his raceday equipment -- the horse pursuing the Triple Crown.

You keep using the word rule when their was no written rule..... :confused:
Care to explain............ :confused:

Cardus
05-30-2012, 04:45 PM
Reading PA's subsequent posts, I see that he meant all of the horses, though he did not present it that way in his initial post.

Conceding that point, I think that we would agree that the foundation for changing the decision to benefit all of the horses who run that day -- and, as PA added, from that day forward -- would be I'll Have Another, and that such a change is a bad idea.

It certainly would not look good for a decision to be changed 10 days before the Belmont Stakes when it would impact -- from the standpoint that there would be no deviation in his raceday equipment -- the horse pursuing the Triple Crown.

For me, it would reek of desperation to see a horse win the Triple Crown.

To see a change so close to this race, and to watch him win two Saturdays from now after a decision was changed with one horse in mind, would cheapen the accomplishment.

FTFM, and for linguists everywhere.