More impressed with Dullahan

[menifee]

I know I may get a lot of heat for saying this, but I thought Dullahan ran bigger. The horse lost so much ground in the race and was 7 wide. He also got bumped around a little bit in the race.

The Churchill surface seemed to me to not be playing fair all day. Quality speed did not come back in the stretch all day despite the fractions. So once Bodemeister got loose, despite the fractions, it did not surprise that he kept going given the track.

People are blaming Mike Smith, but this horse's best races are when he is loose on a lead. If he tries to rate, he doesn't run the same race.

[Uncle Salty]

I was too, just looking at the result charts. I didn't get to see all the races at Churchhill on Saturday so I don't know how speed-favoring the track was or wasn't, but he made a hell of a run and nearly caught him at the end. Another 1/16th of a mile and he might have won it.

[DJofSD]

He was my key horse. I needed him to beat Bodiemeister to cash my exacta box. Yes, I left Baffert's horse off.

[hencicleva]

Went The Day Well looked the more exciting prospect to me and he certainly overtakes Dullahan with any hypothetical added distance.

[Valuist]

Under the circumstances, I'm surprised Dullahan didn't win. The pace was tailor made for him; absolutely ideal. Sorry but I downgrade him going into the Preakness. He was catching tiring horses.

[DJofSD]

He reminds me of this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Bodgit) horse.

[Greyfox]

Went The Day Well looked the more exciting prospect to me and he certainly overtakes Dullahan with any hypothetical added distance.

Went the Day Well was coming like a train at the end. But too little, too late.

[PhantomOnTour]

Bodemeister was the most impressive colt in the Derby in my opinion.
I'll Have Another ran a super race and deserves the Roses...Dullahan got a beauty set up and came runnin, like he's supposed to do.
You are not supposed to set the splits Bode set and be so close at the end.

Hansen had better take up miling or sprinting (like Shack) cuz Bodemeister is ten times the frontrunner he is.

[ArlJim78]

agree, what the derby confirmed is how good Bodemeister is.
I was not particularily impressed by Dullahan, he did what he was supposed to do, pick up the pieces when the pretenders retreated. he'll be up against it in the Preakness should he go.

[judd]

went the day well was flying at the end (4th) from being shuffled way back

[parlay]

i bet "the dul one". i am convinced he is a plodder and should only be used
to fill the bottom positions.
Hansen looked terrible in the post parade

[Bullet Plane]

i bet "the dul one". i am convinced he is a plodder and should only be used
to fill the bottom positions.
Hansen looked terrible in the post parade

Agree..he looked real washy. The workout reports were bad too; saying the horse was unruly..

I thought his race in the Blue Grass was a monster race. But, something has went wrong with him... not sure what the deal is..

[DJofSD]

Plodder?

I'm not so sure. I'll give him one more race before I come to a conclusion.

If he's in the Preakness then I will not expect anything of him but I will see what he is able to do.

I believe the next race for him should be the Belmont Stakes. If he is a horse of the lesser ability than what he hinted at in the stretch of yesterday's race then he'll run well off the pace and finish the race with a run like yesterday's but not able to get to the leaders. If that's what happens then I will reach the same conclusion.

[parlay]

Plodder?

I'm not so sure. I'll give him one more race before I come to a conclusion.

If he's in the Preakness then I will not expect anything of him but I will see what he is able to do.

I believe the next race for him should be the Belmont Stakes. If he is a horse of the lesser ability than what he hinted at in the stretch of yesterday's race then he'll run well off the pace and finish the race with a run like yesterday's but not able to get to the leaders. If that's what happens then I will reach the same conclusion.

Didn't mean to diminish him as a horse. he ran very well, got a good trip and didn't win. i believe at the top level he is more likely to be a runerup than a winner. i love these types to key in exotics. but i will not use him in the top position. I WOULD give anything to own a horse as talented as him.

[Tom]

I think a bunch of horses should start looking for one turn routes and a bunch more should start looking at optional claimers.

[Greyfox]

Dullahan ran a solid race yesterday.
I mentioned yesterday in a thread that no one says much about the Dosage Index anymore. Yet Dr. Steven Roman has stuck by this concept for a long time. He wrote extensively about it in his book Pedigree and Performance.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/
For a long time any horse with a Dosage Index > 4.0 was downrated on it's chances to win the Derby or longer.
Dullahan's D.I. = 4.20
Does anyone here have concerns about him getting more distance??

[letswastemoney]

Plodder?

I'm not so sure. I'll give him one more race before I come to a conclusion.

If he's in the Preakness then I will not expect anything of him but I will see what he is able to do.

I believe the next race for him should be the Belmont Stakes. If he is a horse of the lesser ability than what he hinted at in the stretch of yesterday's race then he'll run well off the pace and finish the race with a run like yesterday's but not able to get to the leaders. If that's what happens then I will reach the same conclusion.People make a mistake thinking the Belmont Stakes favors closers. Every jockey will be so concerned with saving the horse's energy in the Belmont, that the pace will probably be too slow for Dullahan to even make a dent. I don't think Dullahan would even hit the board in the Belmont, and I bet him heavily in the Kentucky Derby.

[cj]

I believe the next race for him should be the Belmont Stakes. If he is a horse of the lesser ability than what he hinted at in the stretch of yesterday's race then he'll run well off the pace and finish the race with a run like yesterday's but not able to get to the leaders. If that's what happens then I will reach the same conclusion.

If I had a nickel for every a closer in the Derby that skipped the Preakness for the Belmont, then flopped, I'd have A LOT of nickels.

[Valuist]

Plodder?

I'm not so sure. I'll give him one more race before I come to a conclusion.

If he's in the Preakness then I will not expect anything of him but I will see what he is able to do.

I believe the next race for him should be the Belmont Stakes. If he is a horse of the lesser ability than what he hinted at in the stretch of yesterday's race then he'll run well off the pace and finish the race with a run like yesterday's but not able to get to the leaders. If that's what happens then I will reach the same conclusion.

I think they'd be best off sending Dullahan to Colonial for the VA Derby on the grass, then the Secretariat on grass at Arlington.

[Robert Fischer]

He contended in the derby and he'll contend in the Belmont.

Look for a similar move to what Summer Bird made although this will likely be a better edition.

Bodemeister ran a great race and I'll Have Another ran big from a better trip. Dullahan wins some of these derbys. I'm not ready to start calling him a plodder. This wasn't Ice Box getting a dream setup and floating through the lane on the wrong lead. Dullahan made a pretty long drive to get up against a very strong crop. Went The Day Well may have been moving best of all late. I haven't watched the race a bunch of times but that was my first impression.

[setup]

Dullahan ran exactly as he was supposed to given the setup of the race and his position in it. Another jump and he even finishes ahead of the great Bodemeister. To deem him a 'plodder' or 'hanger' or strictly a turf horse is absurd. Horses don't typically outrun their setup. The winner got it done because he was in a better position than Dullahan (and the others in that section of the race).

[Valuist]

Dullahan ran exactly as he was supposed to given the setup of the race and his position in it. Another jump and he even finishes ahead of the great Bodemeister. To deem him a 'plodder' or 'hanger' or strictly a turf horse is absurd. Horses don't typically outrun their setup. The winner got it done because he was in a better position than Dullahan (and the others in that section of the race).

And why was he in better position? Because he exerted more energy than Dullahan.

Whenever there's a very fast pace in the Derby, all the riders adjust and we get a much slower pace in the Preakness. And its almost always a crawlfest in the Belmont.

The Derby was the ideal setup for Dullahan. He likely won't see another setup like this again on dirt unless he runs in the BC Classic.

[Speed Figure]

The horse has 2 wins, both on ploy track! keep him on that! put him on turf for now and than send him to Del Mar for the Pacific Classic!

[DJofSD]

All of you could be right. But as I said, I'm giving the horse another chance.

And as far as a nickel for every horse that skips the Preakness for the Belmont, I'm not comparing Dullahan to every other horse. I am thinking he could be another Jazil.

[cj]

All of you could be right. But as I said, I'm giving the horse another chance.

And as far as a nickel for every horse that skips the Preakness for the Belmont, I'm not comparing Dullahan to every other horse. I am thinking he could be another Jazil.

If a field shows up like the one Jazil beat, Trinniberg might be a contender.

[DJofSD]

So, do you think Trinniberg learned enough on Saturday and will be able to apply the lesson learned?

[cj]

I was just kidding. He'll probably run in the Riva Ridge on Belmont day if I had to guess.

[Rapid Grey]

And why was he in better position? Because he exerted more energy than Dullahan.

Whenever there's a very fast pace in the Derby, all the riders adjust and we get a much slower pace in the Preakness. And its almost always a crawlfest in the Belmont.

The Derby was the ideal setup for Dullahan. He likely won't see another setup like this again on dirt unless he runs in the BC Classic.

I think Dale Romans would beg to differ.

He talked Dullahan up more than any horse he's ever had, and was overly confident throughout Derby week, Desormeaux too. Then Saturday came and the speed started holding. They interviewed Romans about midway through the race card and again on the walk over, both times he looked like he'd just eaten a rotten egg. He knew his horse was up against it.

[menifee]

I think Dale Romans would beg to differ.

He talked Dullahan up more than any horse he's ever had, and was overly confident throughout Derby week, Desormeaux too. Then Saturday came and the speed started holding. They interviewed Romans about midway through the race card and again on the walk over, both times he looked like he'd just eaten a rotten egg. He knew his horse was up against it.

Once that storm hit on Friday and they sealed the track and then cut it back open, speed started holding and not coming back. The Oaks and the Derby results were both impacted by this. It was extremely difficult to close on Derby day into quality speed. It just didn't come back. Bodemeister will be overbet in the Preakness if he goes.

[CincyHorseplayer]

1 run closer expects what=traffic trouble and/or wide trips.It comes with the territory.I don't upgrade when it's a running style defect.

[FlyinLate]

1 run closer expects what=traffic trouble and/or wide trips.It comes with the territory.I don't upgrade when it's a running style defect.

Exactly my thoughts. Everyone wants an excuse, but the fact of the matter is, in races of this size, those should factor in to his chances. To think that a closer like Dullahan wouldn't be extremely wide or compromised by extreme traffic if he went inside would be foolish. Front runners have to deal with the possiblity of receiveing enormous amounts of pressure and setting too quick of fractions. Closers have to deal with the possibility of a soft pace, wide trips, and traffic troubles.

This is why I continually argue the need for tactical speed in a race horse. Very few horses who have the "one late run" or "I need the lead" racing types can win races on an extremely consistent basis.

Even with the speed favoring track that day, to say that Dullahan was "more against it" than Bodemeister after those fractions is a bold statement.

[Rapid Grey]

Even with the speed favoring track that day, to say that Dullahan was "more against it" than Bodemeister after those fractions is a bold statement.

Dullahan didn't even go by the pure sprinter Trinniberg until mid-stretch and was "only" 3 lengths clear of him at the 1/8th pole, or 1 1/8th miles into the race!

Nobody talking up what a great effort Trinniberg gave considering it was his 1st route and in the biggest race on the planet. :rolleyes:

Can't wait to see the speed gurus lining up to bet him the next time he routes.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Dullahan didn't even go by the pure sprinter Trinniberg until mid-stretch and was "only" 3 lengths clear of him at the 1/8th pole, or 1 1/8th miles into the race!

Nobody talking up what a great effort Trinniberg gave considering it was his 1st route and in the biggest race on the planet. :rolleyes:

Can't wait to see the speed gurus lining up to bet him the next time he routes.

Last line is a pretty BS notion.Why would anybody back an unproven at the route horse?I don't know what speed gurus you are talking about but I'm sure they are laughing you back into last week.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Exactly my thoughts. Everyone wants an excuse, but the fact of the matter is, in races of this size, those should factor in to his chances. To think that a closer like Dullahan wouldn't be extremely wide or compromised by extreme traffic if he went inside would be foolish. Front runners have to deal with the possiblity of receiveing enormous amounts of pressure and setting too quick of fractions. Closers have to deal with the possibility of a soft pace, wide trips, and traffic troubles.

This is why I continually argue the need for tactical speed in a race horse. Very few horses who have the "one late run" or "I need the lead" racing types can win races on an extremely consistent basis.

Even with the speed favoring track that day, to say that Dullahan was "more against it" than Bodemeister after those fractions is a bold statement.

I'm convinced and I'm sure you know that this whole game is deciding which factor trumps another at any given point.Pace vs trip levels this one off IMO.Unless you went to the ground at the start,got severely checked,or something you should have been closing in on that pace.If you were in a 4 horse battle for the lead 4 wide OK,ground loss a big factor.These people can't say "He had a bad trip" when every race he runs is a bad trip because of how he runs!It sounds simple but it is so misunderstood.

[Tom]

I'll look for Dullahan on the grass or at a plasti-track.

[sovereign]

Trinniberg in a 1-turn mile.

[Rapid Grey]

Last line is a pretty BS notion.Why would anybody back an unproven at the route horse?I don't know what speed gurus you are talking about but I'm sure they are laughing you back into last week.

Unproven at a route?

He was 3 lengths from the lead turning for home in the biggest race on the planet! Chasing one of the fastest paces in Derby history, in the first two turn race of his life.

What's not to like, lol?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Unproven at a route?

He was 3 lengths from the lead turning for home in the biggest race on the planet! Chasing one of the fastest paces in Derby history, in the first two turn race of his life.

What's not to like, lol?

I just cranked one off looking at the replay and the pace figs!!!:cool:

[parlay]

PLODDER! At least on dirt.
I will say he did look anxious in the post parade.
He spit the bit very early.