Do you blame Mike Smith for Bode's loss?

[horses4courses]

Running as well as he did, with a 45.1 half mile, do you blame Mike Smith for Bodemeister getting caught in the final sixteenth?

[ArlJim78]

No

[Chackiee]

No

[setup]

I blame PVAL

[Greyfox]

Baffert told him if the horse broke from the gate cleanly let him run.
Also with Trinniberg who had only been in sprints in the race, there wasn't much room to slow down through the first 6 furlongs to give the horse a breather.

No. But drat.

[WJ47]

I think he just tried to steal it and got caught. He only lost by a length. He almost got away with it.

I'm pretty impressed with Bodemeister. :) He was very impressive in defeat.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If he slowed up and dueled it would have been worse IMO.

[depalma113]

What could have been? He is such a great horse. I really thought he was going to win the Triple Crown if he won the Derby. Oh well, it wasn't meant to be.

[blind squirrel]

sometimes ya gotta let a "Big Horse Roll".

[Rapid Grey]

On a track as speed favoring as Churchill was today I don't see how anyone could blame Smith, I would imagine he and Baffert decided to send regardless of how bad Trinniberg or Hansen wanted the lead.

[horses4courses]

Baffert not blaming the jockey, judging by this post race quote:

Baffert: That's the only time I've run second where I've been happy because he ran his race."

[michiken]

With that type of ride, Bode beat himself. Clearly the best horse does not win the derby.

[sovereign]

That was the best scenario Bode could have. It just wasn't enough. But that was one hell of a run!

[bks]

Of course Smith gets the blame.

Bodemesiter was five lengths the best, and instead of winning he lost to the next best horse [IHA is a very good horse, and will win the Preakness if Bode stays home.]

If Smith lets Trinniberg go and lays just outside Hansen, how does he lose? In stead of 45.39 he makes the half in 46 and change. Big, big difference. I know Baffert said to send him if he broke well, but there is no reason not to let Trinniberg go.

[depalma113]

With that type of ride, Bode beat himself. Clearly the best horse does not win the derby.

It's hard to out run a sprinter and than finish the deal. Just shows how special Rachel Alexandra was.

[duncan04]

. Clearly the best horse does not win the derby.

:bang: :bang: I get sick of hearing this every year!!

[Mr. Nobody]

I may be wrong, but I think Spend A Buck in 1985 is the last horse (and maybe only horse?) to break 1:10 for 6 furlongs and win the Derby. I think that if Bodemeister got the same trip that Hansen got (minus the early rankness) he would have won.

[garyscpa]

If you asked prior to the race if Bodemeister would win with a sub 46 first quarter almost everyone on this board would have said no.

Then he runs it and people are blaming it on the horse.

It's the horse or the jockey. I think it's the jockey.

[Scofield]

BOB BAFFERT (Bodemeist second) – “He was doing it easily. He was within himself. He was being pressed, but he’s a brilliant horse. That’s the way he wanted to run. We talked about it before. I told Mike (Smith), ‘Look, if he breaks great and feels like running, we can win it.’
“He ran his race. He was there and he just got tired a little bit. He’s only run four times. I was really proud of him. He’s a super impressive horse.
Thoughts in the stretch: “When they were coming for him I was thinking about War Emblem, except War Emblem got :46 and change. If the half could have been in :46 it would have been good, but Mike rode him perfect. I have no complaints there. We got beat. You get beat. But he showed up and that’s all a trainer can ask for is that his horse shows up on the big days, and he showed up.”
On the way the race played out: “I wasn’t surprised. He’s a very fast horse and I didn’t want to change his style. Actually the jockey of Trinniberg had a hold of his horse as best he could, but I knew he was there. That’s horse racing. The reason I didn’t get pumped up all week is that in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby anything can happen. He ran his race and that’s all you can ask for.
“That’s the only time I’ve run second where I’ve been happy because he ran his race.”

[wisconsin]

Bodemeister is a nice horse, but I said on other boards that he was not bred to go 1 1/4. He ran his eyeballs out, but there's always that one horse who was better when it comes down to breeding. How can anyone blame the jockey? Had he slowed up, he would have then dueled with Trinnenberg. He got the lead, the rest was up to fate.

[Beachbabe]

I don't blame Smith at all. Baffert told him, "If he wants to roll, let him roll." Smith didn't kill off Bodemeister with that ride. If it was such a bad ride he would have been crushed...finishing in the back of the pack.
I didn't play the horse, but I have all the respect in the world for him now. It was a helluva game effort. If he goes to the Preakness, I wouldn't bet against him ( unless the next two weeks show that the Derby took a serious toll on him)

[proximity]

mr baffert was quite classy in defeat, but clearly it wasn't a very inspired ride and as a bettor who lost on the six (i had him 5-2) i did blame the jockey.... but that's part of the game and we move on.

[depalma113]

Bodemeister is a nice horse, but I said on other boards that he was not bred to go 1 1/4. He ran his eyeballs out, but there's always that one horse who was better when it comes down to breeding. How can anyone blame the jockey? Had he slowed up, he would have then dueled with Trinnenberg. He got the lead, the rest was up to fate.

The idea that he can't get a mile and a quarter is laughable. If Trinninberg was not in the race he demolishes the field.

[maddog42]

Bodemeister is a nice horse, but I said on other boards that he was not bred to go 1 1/4. He ran his eyeballs out, but there's always that one horse who was better when it comes down to breeding. How can anyone blame the jockey? Had he slowed up, he would have then dueled with Trinnenberg. He got the lead, the rest was up to fate.

Bodemeister had a monster race and almost won. I really like Have Another,but he had a very easy setup race for him. You run this race 10 times and Bode wins
half of them easy. I can't blame the jock for even 1 length lost because of the way things played. It is so tough to judge how much horse you have left. Breeding? I doubt if breeding caused this loss.

[rastajenk]

I blame Bush!

:)

[pandy]

Bodemeister ran a game race but not as big as it may seem. Good ride by Smith, you have to let the horse do what he does best. The track was definitely holding water and was very fast. In the last race, race 13, which was a maiden race at one mile, the winner Mr. Ticket went :22.2, :44.3 on the lead and won. With the heavy rains the day/night before, the track on Friday and Saturday was not kind to sustained types, which set the race up for either a front runner of a stalker. And the fractions were fast because the track was fast.

This is part of racing, the conditions. If it had been dry the past few days the speed would have come back to the field more and the finish would have been a lot closer with the closers narrowing in.

Not to take anything away from Bodemeister, he seems like a quality colt, but he will be overbet off this race. I thought Union Rags ran a big race.

[ArlJim78]

Bodemeister is a nice horse, but I said on other boards that he was not bred to go 1 1/4. He ran his eyeballs out, but there's always that one horse who was better when it comes down to breeding. How can anyone blame the jockey? Had he slowed up, he would have then dueled with Trinnenberg. He got the lead, the rest was up to fate.
so the fast pace didn't do him in, nor the fact that he was so lightly raced, the one length loss was all due to breeding?

[dnlgfnk]

"You run this race 10 times"...and Bodemeister wins roughly 2 of them, the pct. for a 4-1 shot. The 8 other runnings, all the factors that make for a loss will play out.

If Bodemeister isn't "bred for the distance", neither are 18 others in the field.
If Smith put up a bad ride, 18 others put up a worse ride.

The horse was roused moderately to hold inside position in the opening stages. After that he cleared Trinniberg a few strides before the 1st turn, to naturally run at that pace, but easily as the lack of pressure continued...Smith wasn't gunning him to run the next quarters in :23, :24-3. Trinniberg would have been allowed to overtake to the point of preventing him from the rail-but Trinniberg didn't have the ability to overtake B without driving on the backstretch. In fact, Trinniberg visually didn't seriously gain ground or be urged until just before the far turn.

So few people, including experts on broadcasts, get the deceptiveness of fractions. The results of races reveal the effect of the pace. In the Ark Derby, he coasted from the universally better outside footing on straightaways vs. the stalker Secret Circle to an easy lead, thus the winning margin. In the Ky Derby, he was pressed enough early, before able to relax from the 1st turn to almost the far turn, to surrender to the winner very late.

[PhantomOnTour]

Bode ran a hell of a race...no fault to Mike Smith imo.
He ran most of this field right into the ground...distanced them.

They were all under pressure to keep up with the pace he was setting.

[letswastemoney]

Bodemeister is a nice horse, but I said on other boards that he was not bred to go 1 1/4. He ran his eyeballs out, but there's always that one horse who was better when it comes down to breeding. How can anyone blame the jockey? Had he slowed up, he would have then dueled with Trinnenberg. He got the lead, the rest was up to fate.
huh Empire Maker won the Belmont, just how is Bodemeister not bred for distance?

[The WindfallAngler]

Running as well as he did, with a 45.1 half mile, do you blame Mike Smith for Bodemeister getting caught in the final sixteenth?

I am inclined to be critical of Mike Smith, yes. Because a better ride was essential to Bodemeister's chances. This sub-optimal ride was foreseeable, and - at all costs - SHOULD have been avoided!

To have Bodemeisiter outsprinting the sprinter, Trinniberg, was a serious mistake. It served no useful purpse and it plainly depleted energies best reserved the final sixteenth.

[Skanoochies]

"You run this race 10 times"...and Bodemeister wins roughly 2 of them, the pct. for a 4-1 shot. The 8 other runnings, all the factors that make for a loss will play out.

If Bodemeister isn't "bred for the distance", neither are 18 others in the field.
If Smith put up a bad ride, 18 others put up a worse ride.

The horse was roused moderately to hold inside position in the opening stages. After that he cleared Trinniberg a few strides before the 1st turn, to naturally run at that pace, but easily as the lack of pressure continued...Smith wasn't gunning him to run the next quarters in :23, :24-3. Trinniberg would have been allowed to overtake to the point of preventing him from the rail-but Trinniberg didn't have the ability to overtake B without driving on the backstretch. In fact, Trinniberg visually didn't seriously gain ground or be urged until just before the far turn.

So few people, including experts on broadcasts, get the deceptiveness of fractions. The results of races reveal the effect of the pace. In the Ark Derby, he coasted from the universally better outside footing on straightaways vs. the stalker Secret Circle to an easy lead, thus the winning margin. In the Ky Derby, he was pressed enough early, before able to relax from the 1st turn to almost the far turn, to surrender to the winner very late.
Good points IMO. :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

Smith blew it. I was asked about Bodemeister when i dropped my wife off at work around 2p. I told them "if you see a 45 at the half, he's toast"

I went home in time to observe the travesty of a ride.

Bob Baffert is a true gent. He handles the media well. This owner running 2nd again, i am betting wont be as diplomatic

[Robert Goren]

I think some of the posters here are underestimating how good the winner is. The best horse won.

[jasperson]

I voted no because I blame Baffert for not having the horse tight enough. Check the works on I'll Have Another his works were never shorter than 6f and he had several 7f works. I don't know how you can expect a horse to be ready for 10f off from 4f or 5f works

[pandy]

huh Empire Maker won the Belmont, just how is Bodemeister not bred for distance?

And Empire Maker's sire Unbridled also won the Derby, plus on the Dam's (Untouched Talent) side there and three Belmont winners, A P Indy, Secretariat, and Seattle Slew, two of whom also won the Derby. So his breeding traces back to 3 Derby winners and 4 Belmont winners, distance shouldn't be a problem.

[Scofield]

I voted no because I blame Baffert for not having the horse tight enough. Check the works on I'll Have Another his works were never shorter than 6f and he had several 7f works. I don't know how you can expect a horse to be ready for 10f off from 4f or 5f works

Real Quiet,War Emblem,Silver Charm had 4f and 5f bullet works before the derby.Thats not why Bodemeister lost.

[Marshall Bennett]

He took the shortest route possible. He didn't have dirt flying in his face. If he'd ran the same race 10 times he'd probably win 7 or 8. Smith did exactly what Kent D. should have done with Big Brown in the Belmont.

[Scofield]

He took the shortest route possible. He didn't have dirt flying in his face. If he'd ran the same race 10 times he'd probably win 7 or 8. Smith did exactly what Kent D. should have done with Big Brown in the Belmont.

One has too factor in his huge Ark win 3 weeks ago.He ran fast splits in that race and though he won by daylight to ask a horse in his 5TH start to duplicate that performance 3 weeks later at a 1 1/4 was a monumental task.Well deserved rest is needed.

[sovereign]

The screws were on tight. He ran his race. He just lost in the final 16th. After setting those fractions you would have expected him to wilt much sooner. I know I would. He didn't. That was a hell of a race he ran. It would have been worse if he dropped back and accepted a duel. Sure he set fast fractions, but he did it within himself. No blame in this loss. But if there were something to blame, then it would be that Bodemeister is not a machine, he is only flesh and blood.

[pandy]

The labeled the track "fast" for the Derby but the track should have been labeled "good". Horses that raced off the pace had mud on them when they came back and the track was definitely sealed, wet, and favoring speed and stalkers, plus extremely fast. The winner of the 13th race, a maiden, went :44.3 to the half in a one mile race and in his prior route races his fastest half was :50. They were two turn races but still, this horse, Mr. Ticket, loved the speed favoring wet track yesterday and improved dramatically.

[PICSIX]

I blame Bush!

:)

I blame myself, I put a lot of weight ($'s) on his back :lol: :lol: !

[Valuist]

I think some of the posters here are underestimating how good the winner is. The best horse won.

Absolutely not. This was arguably the best performance by a non winner of the Derby since Risen Star. Everything set up perfectly for the winner (and Dullahan).

And virtually every time there's a blazing pace in the Derby, the pace two weeks later is decidedly slower. So horses like Bodemeister and Point Given and Snow Chief turn the tables on the I'll Have Anothers, Monarchos and Ferdinands of the world.

[PhantomOnTour]

Absolutely not. This was arguably the best performance by a non winner of the Derby since Risen Star. Everything set up perfectly for the winner (and Dullahan).

And virtually every time there's a blazing pace in the Derby, the pace two weeks later is decidedly slower. So horses like Bodemeister and Point Given and Snow Chief turn the tables on the I'll Have Anothers, Monarchos and Ferdinands of the world.
Agreed...anyone less than 8 lenths behind Bode after a half mile was toast. He set such a solid pace that he buried most of this field. Everyone else who finished in the top 8 positions was at least 10 back of Bode after a half, except for the winner who lay 8 lengths off the pace.
It was damn near a tour de force by the runner up and a fantastic performance.

[burnsy]

Agreed...anyone less than 8 lenths behind Bode after a half mile was toast. He set such a solid pace that he buried most of this field. Everyone else who finished in the top 8 positions was at least 10 back of Bode after a half, except for the winner who lay 8 lengths off the pace.
It was damn near a tour de force by the runner up and a fantastic performance.
i agree with both of you..........bodemeister bottomed out that field. thats why baffert was happy. smith was told to do this and that was the plan. its not the jockeys fault to follow orders, baffert knows he has the goods with this horse. they thought their best chance was a repeat of arkansas. anyone furthur then 8 or 9 lengths behind this freak won't catch him and baffert knows this. if this horse makes one more move forward he will be the best 3 yo around. i'll have another is just a little better right now. i'll have another just reeled off 3 big wins in a row.......these internet forums always love to blame jockeys for losing tickets.....try riding a 1200 pound animal going 40 miles an hour......this freakin horse just beat 18 horses going 22 and change in a 10 furlong race.......they knew what they were doing...thats how this horse runs. baffert and smith took their best shot with a lightly raced horse. from where i'm sitting bode will beat most of these horses running that way.....EVERY TIME.

[wisconsin]

huh Empire Maker won the Belmont, just how is Bodemeister not bred for distance?

Again, for those who read my previous posts, NO daughter of Storm Cat has EVER thrown a graded stakes winner past 9 furlongs on dirt. That means some 2500 half siblings to Bodemeister. Too many to ignore such a stat.

[maddog42]

"The first fraction belongs to the Horse"- Laffitte Pincay Jr.
Well lets assume this is true. Sartin and a bunch of smart people thought it was.
If Smith backs him off after that first fraction he probably duels with trinniberg for about a half mile.
Result: Probably loses.
If he backs him farther back into second, the Horse probably gets rank.
Result: Probably loses.
If he doesn't take him to a 5 length lead at the top of the stretch, the horse loses momentum and
Result: The horse gets headed earlier and loses by 2.
This really is conjecture of course, but here is something that is not conjecture:
Horse Players are notorious whiners, myself included. I just went back to last years TC thread and guess what, a bunch of whining horseplayers, one named
maddog42. That guy makes me sick.

[jasperson]

Real Quiet,War Emblem,Silver Charm had 4f and 5f bullet works before the derby.Thats not why Bodemeister lost. They just didn't come up against a fitter horse. Present day trainers baby their charges to much. Coming back in 2 weeks for the Preakness is too quick and I say bunk. A fit and ready horse that raced should be able to come back in 10 day or less. Alot of the old time handicapping books had a qualifier that the horse must be coming back in 10 days or less to be a good bet. I have a book that has the complete workouts and races for Assault's Triple Crown win and he had 6 1 mile works prior to winning the wood 4/20. He was 4th in the derby trial 4/30 on a muddy track. 5/4 four days later he won the Kentucky Derby. 7 days later on 5/11 he won the Preakness and 21 days later he won the Belmont. What the present day trainers are really saying is if you train like I do a horse can't come back in 2 weeks because he wasn't fit enough and the race took too much out of him. They are just afraid to train their horses properly because they might go wrong if they do. The excuse I here is the present day tb won't stand the training because we are breeding for speed. If we are breeding for speed then were is it? Whirlaways 1941 2.01 1/4 derby would have looked good in the 2012 race.

[JustRalph]

2011 Breeders Cup Sprint final time
1:09.17

Bodemeister in the Derby
1:09.80

2011 Breeders Cup Mile Caleb's Posse
22.49 45.36 1:34.59

Bodemeister Derby
22.32 45.39 1:35.19

This was a fools errand. No way in hell you can ever convince me Baffert would have ever thought they would cut these fractions. And Mikey was completely off his rocker when it comes to the clock in his head.

2012 Arkansas Derby Bodemeister on the front
6F in 1:11.36 versus 1:.09.80 in the Derby.
8F in the Ark Derby 1:36.74 in the Ky Derby 1:35.19

This horse plain got away from Mikey and robbed him of what should have been a historic win. For some reason I have a little Angel named Stewart Elliott sitting on my shoulder cheering me on while I type this........

[The WindfallAngler]

Yes (with emphasis).

[pandy]

I don't know what everyone is making such a fuss about, the pace was fast because the track was fast. You have to get the variant and then adjust (add to) the fractions, which will show that the pace was quick but not exceptionally fast. A 7 furlong race went in 1:20.2, the filly who the race should have gone around 1:21.4. In the 13th race, a 4yo maiden that had a top Bris route speed figure of 76 and a top route half mile time of :50 went :44.3 to the half, more than 5 seconds faster than the horse had ever run four furlongs! The track was a sealed wet speed favoring track that was LIGHTNING FAST, that's why the pace was so fast.

Once you adjust the splits for the very fast variant, it was a good ride by Smith and a sharp but not spectacular performance by Bodemeister.

[cj]

I don't know what everyone is making such a fuss about, the pace was fast because the track was fast. You have to get the variant and then adjust (add to) the fractions, which will show that the pace was quick but not exceptionally fast. A 7 furlong race went in 1:20.2, the filly who the race should have gone around 1:21.4. In the 13th race, a 4yo maiden that had a top Bris route speed figure of 76 and a top route half mile time of :50 went :44.3 to the half, more than 5 seconds faster than the horse had ever run four furlongs! The track was a sealed wet speed favoring track that was LIGHTNING FAST, that's why the pace was so fast.

Once you adjust the splits for the very fast variant, it was a good ride by Smith and a sharp but not spectacular performance by Bodemeister.
I haven't done the figs yet, and of course the track was fast. That said, I'll be shocked if the variant adjusted pace figures aren't very fast.

[pandy]

Here is a list of the fastest fractions in Derby history:

Yesterday, :22.1, :45.1, 1:09.4, 1:35. The track was lightning fast yesterday as it often is when sealed/wet, so once you adjust the fractions the race will look something like this:

:22.3, :45.3, 1:10.1, 1:35.2.

Solid fractions but certainly not unusually fast for the Derby. And since speed was holding well Friday and Saturday, that also helped Bodemeister maintain his position. He ran a game race but he could be over rated off this effort which looks better than it was because of the fast surface.


FRACTIONS AT 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, MILE DISTANCES

QUARTER MILE

:21:4 Top Avenger (1981)
:22 Bombay Duck (1975)
:22:1 Kentucky Sherry (1968)
:22:1 Barbs Delight (1967)
:22:1 Groovy (1986)
:22:1 Honour and Glory (1996)
:22:2 Dominant (1916)
:22:2 Olympia (1949)
:22:2 Royal Shuck (1964)
:22:2 Bold Forbes (1976)
:22:2 Serena's Song (1995)


HALF MILE

:45:1 Top Avenger (1981)
:45:1 Groovy (1986)
:45:2 Bombay Duck (1975)
:45:3 Sensitive Prince (1978)
:45:3 Old Trieste (1998)
:45:4 For The Moment (1977)
:45:4 Bold Forbes (1976)
:45:4 Kentucky Sherry (1968)
:45:4 Lee Town (1962)
:45:4 Spend a Buck (1985)
:45:4 Serena's Song (1995)


THREE-QUARTER MILE

1:09:3 Spend a Buck
(1985)
1:09:4 Kentucky Sherry (1968)
1:10 Never Bend (1963)
1:10 Honour and Glory (1996)
1:10:1 Sunrise County (1962)
1:10:1 Top Avenger (1981)
1:10:1 Groovy (1986)
1:10:1 Serena's Song (1995)


ONE MILE
1:34:4 Spend a Buck (1985)
1:35 Kauai King (1966)
1:35 Unbridled's Song (1996)
1:35:1 Admiral's Voyage (1962)
1:35:2 Never Bend (1963)
1:35.2 Hill Gail (1952)

[The WindfallAngler]

Of course Smith gets the blame.

Bodemesiter was five lengths the best, and instead of winning he lost to the next best horse [IHA is a very good horse, and will win the Preakness if Bode stays home.]

If Smith lets Trinniberg go and lays just outside Hansen, how does he lose? In stead of 45.39 he makes the half in 46 and change. Big, big difference. I know Baffert said to send him if he broke well, but there is no reason not to let Trinniberg go.

You are entirely correct, though I've no enthu$ia$m for embarking on a point-by-point bolstering of your analysis--which needs none.

The best horse lost! ...to a very good horse, who was beyond question the benediciary of a *suicide trip, up front.

It was profound Folly to go on a sprinting expedition, embarrassing Trinniberg in that manner, tch-tch! BODEMEISTER should have been allowed a stalking position, for half a mile or more, exactly as he enjoyed opposite American Act, in the San Felipe.

[tucker6]

I'm trying to understand why some people think Bode was the best horse yesterday. I've seen analysis that no matter the pace Bode would have set yesterday, he wasn't going to win if a better 10F horse got clear at the end. Too slow and someone from the pack catches him, too fast and someone from the pack catches him. Isn't the test of the KD to be able to be rated, so that you have something left down the stretch? Bode is the best 9F horse in the country. He's showed yesterday that he needs help being the best 10F horse on any given day. Mind you, the track condition was hand delivered to him. Any other track probably dooms him as well. Since when do we laud a horse that needs to thread the needle to win? Bode very much reminds me of Rachel Alexandra, who was gate to wire the best at 9F, but 10F was marginal.

[The WindfallAngler]

I think some of the posters here are underestimating how good the winner is. The best horse won.

And I think you are overestimating the winner. The best horse ran second.

[tucker6]

And I think you are overestimating the winner. The best horse ran second.
not yesterday he wasn't. While the winner isn't incredible, he was good enough to beat Bode, and thus was the best horse yesterday. When Smarty gunned out to his long lead into the stretch at the Belmont only to trot home in second, was he the best horse that day? Saying the best horse finished second is sour grapes. If he was the best, he would have finished first barring some occurrence during the race what prevented that, such as Secretariat getting mugged out of the gate in his first race. Bode had a perfect track and race for his style and still finished second.

[RXB]

You are entirely correct, though I've no enthu$ia$m for embarking on a point-by-point bolstering of your analysis--which needs none.

The best horse lost! ...to a very good horse, who was beyond question the benediciary of a *suicide trip, up front.

It was profound Folly to go on a sprinting expedition, embarrassing Trinniberg in that manner, tch-tch! BODEMEISTER should have been allowed a stalking position, for half a mile or more, exactly as he enjoyed opposite American Act, in the San Felipe.

He lost the San Felipe, too.

[The WindfallAngler]

"The first fraction belongs to the Horse"- Laffitte Pincay Jr.
Well lets assume this is true. Sartin and a bunch of smart people thought it was.
If Smith backs him off after that first fraction he probably duels with trinniberg for about a half mile.
Result: Probably loses.
If he backs him farther back into second, the Horse probably gets rank.
Result: Probably loses.
If he doesn't take him to a 5 length lead at the top of the stretch, the horse loses momentum and
Result: The horse gets headed earlier and loses by 2.
This really is conjecture of course, but here is something that is not conjecture:
Horse Players are notorious whiners, myself included. I just went back to last years TC thread and guess what, a bunch of whining horseplayers, one named
maddog42. That guy makes me sick.

Your logic isn't strictly rigorous. But that aside, it stems from a faulty premise.

Laffit Pincay obviously intended that comment with reference horses, generally.

Plainly NOT with reference to a particular race, still less an anticipated triple crown race in which a pace meltdown was forecast, benchmarked and breadboarded all over the net, and with stakes as high as these.

<[ ...If he backs him farther back into second, the Horse probably gets rank.
Result: Probably loses. ]>

Horses#$%t

I could take these apart, singly and en masse, but enough!

[Sysonby]

He lost the San Felipe, too.

The horse in the Arkansas Derby was clearly not the horse in the San Felipe. I think this horse took a big step forward, which is pretty understandable in a lightly raced horse. There is some suggestion that he would have been rank if rated. He wasn't rank in the San Felipe. I've seen nothing from this horse that indicates he's hard to handle.

[The WindfallAngler]

RXB propounds.

He lost the San Felipe, too.

Lost the race? yes, but in it, Bode rated kindly to the half, and only just missed, to Creative Cause (who was already a sixth-time stakes starter).

This was an unsheduled start, yet it constituted a leap from Maiden Special Weights clear to Grade Two company. He was supposed to lose by fifteen.

[The WindfallAngler]

I'm trying to understand why some people think Bode was the best horse yesterday. I've seen analysis that no matter the pace Bode would have set yesterday, he wasn't going to win if a better 10F horse got clear at the end. Too slow and someone from the pack catches him, too fast and someone from the pack catches him. Isn't the test of the KD to be able to be rated, so that you have something left down the stretch? Bode is the best 9F horse in the country. He's showed yesterday that he needs help being the best 10F horse on any given day. Mind you, the track condition was hand delivered to him. Any other track probably dooms him as well. Since when do we laud a horse that needs to thread the needle to win? Bode very much reminds me of Rachel Alexandra, who was gate to wire the best at 9F, but 10F was marginal.

What tripe!

[cj]

Here is a list of the fastest fractions in Derby history:

I haven't calculated the final time variant yet, but I did the pace. If I assume the track was as fast as Beyer does, the variant adjusted figures would look like this:

1/2: 139
1m: 115
F: 101

Any way you slice it, that is pretty damn fast early, especially the 1/2.

[Saratoga_Mike]

The fractions were obviously very fast, but I'm not sure Bode would have fared any better if the half was 3/5ths or 4/5ths slower. He seems like the type of horse that probably runs best when you just let him roll. Taking him in hand may have resulted in a weaker performance. And I'm no Mike Smith fan.

[iceknight]

Of course Smith gets the blame.

Bodemesiter was five lengths the best, and instead of winning he lost to the next best horse [IHA is a very good horse, and will win the Preakness if Bode stays home.]

If Smith lets Trinniberg go and lays just outside Hansen, how does he lose? In stead of 45.39 he makes the half in 46 and change. Big, big difference. I know Baffert said to send him if he broke well, but there is no reason not to let Trinniberg go.

Seriously that is a cheap shot. Do you need to pick someone to blame? Just accept things as they are..
If you really feel like blaming someone, blame Trinniberg for not sprinting to the lead..

[cj]

Seriously that is a cheap shot. Do you need to pick someone to blame? Just accept things as they are..
If you really feel like blaming someone, blame Trinniberg for not sprinting to the lead..

When the best horse loses, and most people are saying the best horse lost, there must be some reason, right?

[thaskalos]

When the best horse loses, and most people are saying the best horse lost, there must be some reason, right?
You took the words right out of my mouth.

Is it possible to watch yesterday's Derby, and come away with the impression that Bodemeister wasn't the best horse in the race?

What beat him? Bad luck?

That wasn't a quarterhorse race out there...

[elysiantraveller]

I get that Baffert and Smith content to let the horse run his race... but Baffert and Smith both know how long the race is, the horse doesn't...

This was a brain fart by Mike Smith. As JR said earlier Mike Smith must have turned his internal clock off...

[Bill Cullen]

I don't blame Smith at all. There's no evidence that bodemeister can really rate and in the Derby he ran against better horses runningh faster and much further.

Anyone who blames Smth needs to prove that Bodemeister can rate.

Bill C

[The WindfallAngler]

not yesterday he wasn't. While the winner isn't incredible, he was good enough to beat Bode, and thus was the best horse yesterday. When Smarty gunned out to his long lead into the stretch at the Belmont only to trot home in second, was he the best horse that day? Saying the best horse finished second is sour grapes. If he was the best, he would have finished first barring some occurrence during the race what prevented that, such as Secretariat getting mugged out of the gate in his first race. Bode had a perfect track and race for his style and still finished second.

Too often, the best horse loses [placing second or third, or worse]. Some analysts are willing to take victory at face value, the race winner being all they need, or even want to know; others perceive a complexity whose fullness is neither cut nor dried--but they grapple with it anyway, and will readily, sometimes grudgingly concede The Best horse had a Valid Excuse; still others perceive mishaps so horribly blatant, they leave no room for doubt as to who is better than whom.

Sour grapes? To the contrary.

When a racehorse reaches the wire first, he is awarded the purse money and is called "Winner." But that's not what makes him "Best."

[iceknight]

Here is a list of the fastest fractions in Derby history:
THREE-QUARTER MILE

1:09:3 Spend a Buck
(1985)
1:09:4 Kentucky Sherry (1968)
1:10 Never Bend (1963)
1:10 Honour and Glory (1996)
1:10:1 Sunrise County (1962)
1:10:1 Top Avenger (1981)
1:10:1 Groovy (1986)
1:10:1 Serena's Song (1995)


Hey, thanks for posting that data. I don't want to sound like a grammar or a code n*zi but, times should be posted as 1:10.1 or 1:10.20 etc...but I cant help saying this:

this was the last fraction of the second correctly shows up (does not change to 1:10:1 - post position 10) and also represents the 100th part accurately!

[iceknight]

When the best horse loses, and most people are saying the best horse lost, there must be some reason, right?

"BEST" is a subjective word.. In my opinion, the "Best" horse came 3rd. In several others' opinion, the Best horse came 7th (U Rags).

While I respected Bodemeister and respect his awesome 2nd place finish after that early speed, I would not call him best.

[pandy]

I don't blame Smith at all. There's no evidence that bodemeister can really rate and in the Derby he ran against better horses runningh faster and much further.

Anyone who blames Smth needs to prove that Bodemeister can rate.

Bill C


People who have never ridden a horse in their life often have this misconception that every horse is the same and they are all push-button machines that can be slowed down or speeded up at the Jockey's whim. We've seen thousands of speed horses taken under a stranglehold by the jockey attempting to rate the horse and how many times does that work? Sure it works sometimes in slow turf races, but not in a race like this.

Most of the time the horse comes up empty. Bodemeister had only run a few races, he's still learning, and he's got natural speed. To try and curtail that speed under a rating hold would probably have resulted in a much worse finish than 2nd. These are big, powerful, fast horses that are bred to run, it's not so easy to slow them down when they want to run.

[thaskalos]

I don't blame Smith at all. There's no evidence that bodemeister can really rate and in the Derby he ran against better horses runningh faster and much further.

Anyone who blames Smth needs to prove that Bodemeister can rate.

Bill C
With all due respect, Bill...if Bodemeister's connections didn't think he could rate, should he have even been entered in the Derby?

Was it a secret that the pace figured to be too swift for the distance?

[Saratoga_Mike]

People who have never ridden a horse in their life often have this misconception that every horse is the same and they are all push-button machines that can be slowed down or speeded up at the Jockey's whim. We've seen thousands of speed horses taken under a stranglehold by the jockey attempting to rate the horse and how many times does that work? Sure it works sometimes in slow turf races, but not in a race like this.

Most of the time the horse comes up empty. Bodemeister had only run a few races, he's still learning, and he's got natural speed. To try and curtail that speed under a rating hold would probably have resulted in a much worse finish than 2nd. These are big, powerful, fast horses that are bred to run, it's not so easy to slow them down when they want to run.

Well said.

[thaskalos]

People who have never ridden a horse in their life often have this misconception that every horse is the same and they are all push-button machines that can be slowed down or speeded up at the Jockey's whim. We've seen thousands of speed horses taken under a stranglehold by the jockey attempting to rate the horse and how many times does that work? Sure it works sometimes in slow turf races, but not in a race like this.

Most of the time the horse comes up empty. Bodemeister had only run a few races, he's still learning, and he's got natural speed. To try and curtail that speed under a rating hold would probably have resulted in a much worse finish than 2nd. These are big, powerful, fast horses that are bred to run, it's not so easy to slow them down when they want to run.
I would agree with you...but I have seen speed horses rating quite nicely...even for inept jockeys at Portland Meadows.

[garyscpa]

I get that Baffert and Smith content to let the horse run his race... but Baffert and Smith both know how long the race is, the horse doesn't...

This was a brain fart by Mike Smith. As JR said earlier Mike Smith must have turned his internal clock off...

This exactly. :ThmbUp:

[headhawg]

The Storm Cat side indicated that he was likely not to get the distance. Loose on the lead he might have gotten the 10f, but that wasn't going to happen in the Derby. The horse has won both times on the front so what was Smith supposed to do? Take the horse out of his game?

I wasn't a fan and only included him underneath, but I think that Bodemeister ran a helluva race all things considered.

[cj]

"BEST" is a subjective word.. In my opinion, the "Best" horse came 3rd. In several others' opinion, the Best horse came 7th (U Rags).

While I respected Bodemeister and respect his awesome 2nd place finish after that early speed, I would not call him best.

Thus, I said "most". The vast majority of people seem to think Bodemeister was the best horse. I'm sure if I searched long enough I could probably find somebody saying Daddy Long Legs was best.

I bet Dullahan, and there is no way in hell I would say he ran better. He hung, plain and simple.

[Valuist]

The biggest blame lies at the hands of the connections of no-chance Trinniberg. Everyone knew he should be 99-1 on the board. If he's not in the race, how much does Bodemeister win by?

The good thing is enough of the public will be impressed by clunk up finishes like Dullahan's and he will be overbet next time out.

[Maximillion]

IMHO, Smith rode him like he (or Baffert, or both) werent concerned at all about the "closers" in the race....and it appeared that strategy almost worked...the winner (#) showed more dimension than he had in a race so far.

I thought Hansen would be "hell bent on the lead" horse.

[maddog42]

Your logic isn't strictly rigorous. But that aside, it stems from a faulty premise.

Laffit Pincay obviously intended that comment with reference horses, generally.

Plainly NOT with reference to a particular race, still less an anticipated triple crown race in which a pace meltdown was forecast, benchmarked and breadboarded all over the net, and with stakes as high as these.

<[ ...If he backs him farther back into second, the Horse probably gets rank.
Result: Probably loses. ]>

Horses#$%t

I could take these apart, singly and en masse, but enough!

Yeah you're right. Smith could take Zenyatta to the lead any time he wanted, from the gitgo, he just didn't want to. He could have taken Bode in hand and placed him fifth from the gitgo, no problem. Modern Pace handicapping was wrong. Sartin was wrong. Huey Mahl was wrong. Horses are like cars with accelerators and brakes. No such thing as running styles or natural herding instinct, just jockeys F*#!ing around and goofing off and losing horse races.
I understand now. You destroyed me with your logic and insight. I am your humble handicapping student and will never disagree again.

[Robert Fischer]

Should have run at 2.

[The WindfallAngler]

Yeah you're right. Smith could take Zenyatta to the lead any time he wanted, from the gitgo, he just didn't want to. He could have taken Bode in hand and placed him fifth from the gitgo, no problem. Modern Pace handicapping was wrong. Sartin was wrong. Huey Mahl was wrong. Horses are like cars with accelerators and brakes. No such thing as running styles or natural herding instinct, just jockeys F*#!ing around and goofing off and losing horse races.
I understand now. You destroyed me with your logic and insight. I am your humble handicapping student and will never disagree again.

In fairness, I disagreed with you, not the other way around.

It's been said, "Let us agree to disgree." I'm okay with that.

[iceknight]

Thus, I said "most". The vast majority of people seem to think Bodemeister was the best horse. I'm sure if I searched long enough I could probably find somebody saying Daddy Long Legs was best.

I bet Dullahan, and there is no way in hell I would say he ran better. He hung, plain and simple.

That's fine, we can agree to disagree..that's why they have trifecta and super boxes...but.. I didnt hit them..hahaha

[cj]

That's fine, we can agree to disagree..that's why they have trifecta and super boxes...but.. I didnt hit them..hahaha

Me either. I'm not even sure I think Bodemeister was the best horse, just what I've read most people say.

[maddog42]

In fairness, I disagreed with you, not the other way around.

It's been said, "Let us agree to disgree." I'm okay with that.

I apologize for the sarcasm. The great thing about our sport is that there are not many absolutes. So often people are betting their opinions and they are right and they still lose.

[iceknight]

Me either. I'm not even sure I think Bodemeister was the best horse, just what I've read most people say.

He might turn out to be a good winner at some Dubai meetings (at the 9.5f) distance!

[Dark Horse]

Why would Smith be at fault? He had just won this way with Bodemeister. Who says taking a breather in a field this strong would have resulted in a win? The credit goes to Mario Gutierrez on I'll Have Another. He created the perfect trip for himself. Most horses didn't respond nearly as well to the fast pace. Impressive rides by Dullahan/Desormeaux and Went the Day Well/Johnny Velazquez as well. Compare the trips of Went the Day Well and Union Rags. If anything, this race separates the top riders from the rest.

[thaskalos]

I don't know what everyone is making such a fuss about, the pace was fast because the track was fast. You have to get the variant and then adjust (add to) the fractions, which will show that the pace was quick but not exceptionally fast. A 7 furlong race went in 1:20.2, the filly who the race should have gone around 1:21.4. In the 13th race, a 4yo maiden that had a top Bris route speed figure of 76 and a top route half mile time of :50 went :44.3 to the half, more than 5 seconds faster than the horse had ever run four furlongs! The track was a sealed wet speed favoring track that was LIGHTNING FAST, that's why the pace was so fast.

Once you adjust the splits for the very fast variant, it was a good ride by Smith and a sharp but not spectacular performance by Bodemeister.

Pandy...I disagree with you.

The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th horses at the 45.39 half-mile finished 17th, 9th, 20th, 16th, and 19th respectively...and this included some pretty well-regarded horses.

Bodemeister, the pace-setter, almost won the race...and you are knocking his performance?

If the pace wasn't really fast...what happened to the other 5 horses who were closest to Bodemeister at the half?

Not only was Bodemeister's race terrific, but I am looking forward to Hansel's next start...considering he was the only forward-placed horse not to disgrace himself -- even though he was drenched in sweat before the race.

[melman]

Thaskalos---Reread the comments of Pandy's last two sentences. He called Bode's performance "sharp but not spectacluar". How can you call that "knocking his performance?,
You call Bode's race "terrific". Well on a track that was very fast and yielded a seven furlong track record Bode's final time was a Beyer of 101. The second slowest Derby Beyer of the last two decads. I just cannot see calling that "terrific".

[boogaloobboy]

It was obviously a poor ride, and anyone who says otherwise either won money on the race, or is just being contrary because this is the internet and thats what people do. As others have said before why in the world did Smith show ANY concern about trinniberg? Let him go and give your horse the ride Hansen's jockey gave him. Smith could EASILY have been well clear of the field at the 3/4 pole running a full second slower. Why push it so hard?

[ArlJim78]

It was obviously a poor ride, and anyone who says otherwise either won money on the race, or is just being contrary because this is the internet and thats what people do. As others have said before why in the world did Smith show ANY concern about trinniberg? Let him go and give your horse the ride Hansen's jockey gave him. Smith could EASILY have been well clear of the field at the 3/4 pole running a full second slower. Why push it so hard?
his wins and best races came when he had a clear lead, that's why. Bode had never passed a horse so why would he try something new on Derby day?

give him the ride that Hansen got you say, how did that work out for Hansen?

[pandy]

Smith never pushed the horse, he just let him run. The track was speed favoring, he had the fastest speed horse and he set the pace. I don't see how anyone can say this was a bad ride. And as some have pointed out, Bodemeister had just come off a smashing loose-on-the lead score in the fastest race of any 3yo this year, so to go to the lead was certainly not unusual.

Again though, people who have never ridden a horse don't realize that when a speed horse like Bodemeister is charging to the lead you take a big risk trying to put the brakes on, especially when your trainer tells you to let him roll if he wants to run.

[boogaloobboy]

his wins and best races came when he had a clear lead, that's why. Bode had never passed a horse so why would he try something new on Derby day?

give him the ride that Hansen got you say, how did that work out for Hansen?

Dude trinninberg isn't a horse. I could have hit the dirt and passed him at the mile pole on foot. I wish we could have seen a real race without him totally warping the dynamic of the field. And Hansen was WAY WAY hot before the race and isn't the horse Bode is. You honestly think Bode wouldn't have been better served with a bit more conservative pace early? Really??



Edit: Trinniberg is indeed quite a horse, but we all knew this was a disaster even entering him

[CincyHorseplayer]

Dude trinninberg isn't a horse. I could have hit the dirt and passed him at the mile pole on foot. I wish we could have seen a real race without him totally warping the dynamic of the field. And Hansen was WAY WAY hot before the race and isn't the horse Bode is. You honestly think Bode wouldn't have been better served with a bit more conservative pace early? Really??



Edit: Trinniberg is indeed quite a horse, but we all knew this was a disaster even entering him

Have you really watched more than 5 races?

You should know dueling 10 furlongs is a lot more difficult than wiring it when you are a 1 dimensional speed horse.

I recommend you take classes at the School Of Forego on race watching to straighten you out.;)

[tucker6]

It should be obvious by the last 2F results that Bode went out too hot, and had nothing left at the end. Shouldn't the trainer and jockey both know whether Bode could run like that in the first 4F and still have something left in the stretch? If he didn't do it in practice, then he shouldn't be expected to do it in the KD. Smith lost track of his internal clock, and should have tried to ease Bode into an easier pace. Very few horses in history were able to sustain early pace and still have something left at the end of a 10F race. Bode isn't one of them.

[tucker6]

Have you really watched more than 5 races?

You should know dueling 10 furlongs is a lot more difficult than wiring it when you are a 1 dimensional speed horse.

I recommend you take classes at the School Of Forego on race watching to straighten you out.;)
I agree with the bolded. However, how many 1 dimensional speed horses have wired the field of the KD? Not many as I recall.

[ArlJim78]

Dude trinninberg isn't a horse. I could have hit the dirt and passed him at the mile pole on foot. I wish we could have seen a real race without him totally warping the dynamic of the field. And Hansen was WAY WAY hot before the race and isn't the horse Bode is. You honestly think Bode wouldn't have been better served with a bit more conservative pace early? Really??
Dude they're not machines where you can just dial in the pace you want. you have to let them run where they're comfortable. if he wrestled him back like you say, how do you know that the horse would still be comfortable running side by side with Hansen or others? some horses are more ratable than others. some horses just do not run the same kind of race if they are taken back. the point is he got an easy lead, and therefore he had to take it and was committed at that point.

it wasn't like he totally melted down and finished way up the track, that pace was within his wheelhouse.

you claim that Hansen was hot and not the same kind of horse as Bode, and the same for Trinniburg. I agree. but if you're on the best horse with the best speed who likes to run in front and you're able to easily get the lead, why wouldn't you do just that?

I'm all for fast horses running fast and not having the riders throttle them back.

you want to see him run in a real race, well that will happen as the year goes on and the pretenders drop off.

[boogaloobboy]

Have you really watched more than 5 races?

You should know dueling 10 furlongs is a lot more difficult than wiring it when you are a 1 dimensional speed horse.

I recommend you take classes at the School Of Forego on race watching to straighten you out.;)

Again Cincy you misinterpret me. I am merely suggesting he should have tucked in behind Trinni and slowed his fractions down. This isn't dueling, because you cannot duel a horse that basically pulls up at the mile pole. My main beef is probably actually that Trinniberg "forced" bode to run those fractions because they were potentially damaging their horse just to say they had a derby horse.

How do you "know" he's a one dimensional speed horse? Because in his meager sample size thats what he has done? True but that was against horses who weren't in his class (Arkansas) or when he was green. Which of course is because he was underraced but ALL of these horses are now. Perhaps he would have seen a horse in front of him and been unwilling to bide his time a few lengths back but still in front of Long Legs and Hansen, who knows?

[JustRalph]

The Tyler Baze of a few years ago would have rationed out that speed perfectly.

Too bad that kid is having so many problems

[Valuist]

Some blame should go to the fact they allow 20 horses in the race. If it was limited to 14, Trinniberg wouldn't have been in there. The selfishness of Trinniberg's connections cost Bodemeister a deserved Derby win.

[FenceBored]

Dude trinninberg isn't a horse. I could have hit the dirt and passed him at the mile pole on foot. I wish we could have seen a real race without him totally warping the dynamic of the field. And Hansen was WAY WAY hot before the race and isn't the horse Bode is. You honestly think Bode wouldn't have been better served with a bit more conservative pace early? Really??



Edit: Trinniberg is indeed quite a horse, but we all knew this was a disaster even entering him

Did you go to the School of Forego by any chance?

[boogaloobboy]

Some blame should go to the fact they allow 20 horses in the race. If it was limited to 14, Trinniberg wouldn't have been in there. The selfishness of Trinniberg's connections cost Bodemeister a deserved Derby win.

I guess since you have 10000 posts you can say this without being attacked. Finally a rational horse player emerges.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I agree with the bolded. However, how many 1 dimensional speed horses have wired the field of the KD? Not many as I recall.

War Emblem.I only stretch back to 96.Coming into that race he was the fastest early and late as was Bodemeister.It almost worked twice.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Again Cincy you misinterpret me. I am merely suggesting he should have tucked in behind Trinni and slowed his fractions down. This isn't dueling, because you cannot duel a horse that basically pulls up at the mile pole. My main beef is probably actually that Trinniberg "forced" bode to run those fractions because they were potentially damaging their horse just to say they had a derby horse.

How do you "know" he's a one dimensional speed horse? Because in his meager sample size thats what he has done? True but that was against horses who weren't in his class (Arkansas) or when he was green. Which of course is because he was underraced but ALL of these horses are now. Perhaps he would have seen a horse in front of him and been unwilling to bide his time a few lengths back but still in front of Long Legs and Hansen, who knows?

Although I usually bow to running style as a pace predictor,Trinniberg's sprint fractions were pedestrian.I thought Hansen was the speed horse to catch.

Being that Bode was at worst a half a length off the lead at the first call that makes him pretty 1 dimensional.I said on another thread I would like to see these horses race more so it isn't a guessing game come the first Saturday in May.By this time you shouldn't have to guess what is the right running style for a colt.Take the race before the Derby as an example.9 furlongs on the turf and you get a wire job because 2 other 1 dimensional speed horses decided to rate and save some for the stretch.They saved something allright.Saved it for another day!

[thaskalos]

Thaskalos---Reread the comments of Pandy's last two sentences. He called Bode's performance "sharp but not spectacluar". How can you call that "knocking his performance?,
You call Bode's race "terrific". Well on a track that was very fast and yielded a seven furlong track record Bode's final time was a Beyer of 101. The second slowest Derby Beyer of the last two decads. I just cannot see calling that "terrific".
This is what Pandy wrote at the very start of his post:

"I don't know what everybody is making such a fuss about, the pace was fast because the track was fast.

To suggest that the Derby's pace was not really fast, is to knock Bodemeister's performance, IMO.

The fractions alone is only one of the ways to determine how demanding the pace of the race really was...although it's clearly the main one. Another way is to note how the OTHER forwardly-placed horses in the race ended up at the finish wire.

As I said in my post...the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th horses at the half-mile finished 17th, 9th, 20th, 16th and 19th.

Melman...you mention that, "on a very fast track", Bodemeister was only able to garner a Beyer figure of 101...

From a Beyer figure perspective, it doesn't matter whether the track was fast or slow; these figures are adjusted to effectively deal with both, fast and slow tracks. A 101 on a "fast" track is not less impressive than a 101 on a "slow" track.

Let me also add that, IMO, the proper way to effectively judge the pace-setter's performance is not to just look at his final-time speed figure...but rather to use his speed and pace figures in combination.

[melman]

This is what Pandy wrote at the very start of his post:

"I don't know what everybody is making such a fuss about, the pace was fast because the track was fast.

To suggest that the Derby's pace was not really fast, is to knock Bodemeister's performance, IMO.

The fractions alone is only one of the ways to determine how demanding the pace of the race really was...although it's clearly the main one. Another way is to note how the OTHER forwardly-placed horses in the race ended up at the finish wire.

As I said in my post...the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th horses at the half-mile finished 17th, 9th, 20th, 16th and 19th.

Melman...you mention that, "on a very fast track", Bodemeister was only able to garner a Beyer figure of 101...

From a Beyer figure perspective, it doesn't matter whether the track was fast or slow; these figures are adjusted to effectively deal with both, fast and slow tracks. A 101 on a "fast" track is not less impressive than a 101 on a "slow" track.

Let me also add that, IMO, the proper way to effectively judge the pace-setter's performance is not to just look at his final-time speed figure...but rather to use his speed and pace figures in combination.

Yes indeed to use the speed and pace figures in combination. He went very fast early and very slow late. In a race that was slow. How is that "terrific"?

[thaskalos]

Yes indeed to use the speed and pace figures in combination. He went very fast early and very slow late. In a race that was slow. How is that "terricic"?
This was a mile-and-a-quarter race for three-year olds; ANY horse that goes very fast early will go very slow late...

The idea is to relate the front-runner's final-time speed figure to his pace rating for the race.

Do that...and Bodemeister's race as a whole improves dramatically.

When we say the pace is FAST...we mean "fast" for that particular DISTANCE.

[RXB]

Yes indeed to use the speed and pace figures in combination. He went very fast early and very slow late. In a race that was slow. How is that "terrific"?

It's the new math, Mel. They didn't teach it way back when you were in school. :p What are you doing over here on the dark side, anyway? Nothing going on in the juggy world today?

By the way, I agree that "terrific" is a little overstated when it comes to Bodemeister's Derby performance.

[melman]

Any horse eh?? How about Big Red going faster in each split? And it was not a slow pace he did that off of. I again say any horse that has a 101 Beyer fig for the winner and cannot win the race then that horse is far from "terrific". Average at best. Right along with the rest of this year's three year old crop. This will be my last post on this topic. I feel I am being "talked down" too. Like I cannot understand unless it is "explained" to me. Needless to say I reject that idea.

[melman]

It's the new math, Mel. They didn't teach it way back when you were in school. :p What are you doing over here on the dark side, anyway? Nothing going on in the juggy world today?

By the way, I agree that "terrific" is a little overstated when it comes to Bodemeister's Derby performance.
RXB--Think I'll go back and hide in the harness section. :lol: For the t-breds I do look at the TC races and the BC that's about it. Just that for us s-bred guys it's like a horse going 51 to the half and coming home in 1:01. I would hardly call that "terrific".

[thaskalos]

By the way, I agree that "terrific" is a little overstated when it comes to Bodemeister's Derby performance.

After reading this...I went and rechecked the real meaning of the word "terrific"...fearing that the word was indeed over-the-top.

I used it because Bodemeister's performance made the hair stand up on the back of my neck...and this doesn't happen to me often.

When the horse opened up on the field turning for home, after setting the fractions that he did...a pace handicapper should be forgiven for getting a little excited.

Anyway...I checked up on the meaning of the word "terrific", and it means..."Very good or fine; splendid."

It turns out that this was the proper word after all...so I will continue using it.

Bodemeister was TERRIFIC! :)

[maddog42]

Let me refer you to James Quinn and figure handicapping:

"That is, higher pace figures will frequently result in lower speed figures."

from a section called :3yo Stakes Horses- Pace and Speed Figures

"Nonclaiming three-year-olds can record dazzling final times when the early pace has been soft. Others can crush fields of overnight horses early, posting dazzling pace figures, before cruising to an unexceptional final time. But only the best of any generation can deliver dazzling pace figures and final figures in combination."

Now I know that this doesn't help my argument that Smith didn't cost Bode the race, but it is Pace 101. I have a knee-jerk reaction to defend Jockeys like Smith who catch a lot of hell for losing a race. He MIGHT have cost Bode the race. Beyer defended him saying how lightly raced he was and the KD was no place to experiment, with trying to rate him.

[CincyHorseplayer]

After reading this...I went and rechecked the real meaning of the word "terrific"...fearing that the word was indeed over-the-top.

I used it because Bodemeister's performance made the hair stand up on the back of my neck...and this doesn't happen to me often.

When the horse opened up on the field turning for home, after setting the fractions that he did...a pace handicapper should be forgiven for getting a little excited.

Anyway...I checked up on the meaning of the word "terrific", and it means..."Very good or fine; splendid."

It turns out that this was the proper word after all...so I will continue using it.

Bodemeister was TERRIFIC! :)

10 furlongs and fast fractions.Yeah what a loser!!

[tucker6]

10 furlongs and fast fractions.Yeah what a loser!!
did he win?

[FenceBored]

did he win?

He's a winner in Bob's eyes, and that's all that matters. :cool:

[BlueShoe]

The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th horses at the 45.39 half-mile finished 17th, 9th, 20th, 16th, and 19th respectively...and this included some pretty well-regarded horses.
Very good point that indicates just how good Bode's race was. Smith was damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. He sent, per instructions to let the colt roll if he broke and wanted the lead, and lost. If he takes a hold and tries to rate, the colt quite likely becomes rank and loses interest, and instead of finishing second, he gets nothing. Not Smith's fault, it just was not his kind of field. Most of us could recall many a stake race in which the very classy front running favorite lost because it caught a field with other classy speed or a sharp front running stretch out sprinter. Did not like Bode in the Derby, but assuming the usual large defections from the Derby field, he looks like a dead lock in the Preakness.

[tucker6]

He's a winner in Bob's eyes, and that's all that matters. :cool:
Thanks. I keep wondering if I dreamed a different result. I remember all the countless threads on this forum bashing connections for running a horse too early and not having anything left in the tank. Here is a clear cut example of that, and not only do we not get bashing, we get congratulatory back slaps. It makes me breathless to read that Smith couldn't even suggest to Bode that he rate or risk losing the horse. Is this what racing has come to that the best 3 yo horse in America on the 1st Saturday in May is COMPLETELY unratable in a two turn 10F race. He has uncontrollable speed, and we should laud that? That's on Baffert.

Cincy - The above is not directed at you per se, but the overall feel I'm getting.

[CincyHorseplayer]

did he win?

We all know the result.What did you think of his performance?It certainly was no write off and dismissive "He lost" variety.If you are waving this flag I already know you are a loser.Every dumbazz in my neighborhood can feel brilliant about these ho moves.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thanks. I keep wondering if I dreamed a different result. I remember all the countless threads on this forum bashing connections for running a horse too early and not having anything left in the tank. Here is a clear cut example of that, and not only do we not get bashing, we get congratulatory back slaps. It makes me breathless to read that Smith couldn't even suggest to Bode that he rate or risk losing the horse. Is this what racing has come to that the best 3 yo horse in America on the 1st Saturday in May is COMPLETELY unratable in a two turn 10F race. He has uncontrollable speed, and we should laud that? That's on Baffert.

Cincy - The above is not directed at you per se, but the overall feel I'm getting.

It should be lauded because of what actually happened.It's atypical and impressive.We almost saw a 130 year old record go down.That it was that close,yes it should be understood.

If he gets more of a foundation under him he probably does win it.That's on either the owners or Baffert.But Big Bob got him as razor sharp as he could within the time frame.That either of these guys,horse and man,are targets,I have to say,that's some shallow criticism for people that claim to be fans of this game.

[tucker6]

We all know the result.What did you think of his performance?It certainly was no write off and dismissive "He lost" variety.If you are waving this flag I already know you are a loser.Every dumbazz in my neighborhood can feel brilliant about these ho moves.
I'll respond without the name calling. I think Bode is very much in the mold of RA, and I liked RA very much when she ran. However, she was tested with speed early and closers late (can't remember race), and won a 9F race. I don't think she'd win at 10 under the same conditions Bode had either. I suspect Bode could do the same as RA at 9F, but not at 10F.

I just don't consider that brilliant in any way. Brilliance is winning in more than one way given the field on that day.

[Sysonby]

He was just off the pace in the San Felipe until it was time to pick up as they hit the turn before the stretch. I've watched the race five times and he seemed completely comfortable in that position, he wasn't pulling, didn't look anxious, wasn't getting abnormally lathered. There is nothing in his race experience or his character that indicates he can't rate.

I think the conclusion that his trainer came to from the San Felipe was that he couldn't win unless he'd been on the lead all the way through. My conclusion was that it was his third race, first stakes I think, ran sideways in the stretch, and he was up against a guy who was at the top of a lot of people's derby lists. My thinking was that he was going to improve off that race and he seemed like he did that in the Arkansas Derby.

So once again, the one time they did try to rate him, he took it very kindly indeed, so I'm going to have to agree to disagree with those who feel that he would have lost more energy fighting being rated than he would have saved by the slower pace.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'll respond without the name calling. I think Bode is very much in the mold of RA, and I liked RA very much when she ran. However, she was tested with speed early and closers late (can't remember race), and won a 9F race. I don't think she'd win at 10 under the same conditions Bode had either. I suspect Bode could do the same as RA at 9F, but not at 10F.

I just don't consider that brilliant in any way. Brilliance is winning in more than one way given the field on that day.

I'm trying to not resort to the name calling.That you cannot see the excellence of his race,especially that he started racing this year,at a distance most stakes horses hardly ever run,I'm just astonished at the stuborness about giving him his due.It pi$ses me off.I apologize for the names.Give this guy his due though.

[tucker6]

I'm trying to not resort to the name calling.That you cannot see the excellence of his race,especially that he started racing this year,at a distance most stakes horses hardly ever run,I'm just astonished at the stuborness about giving him his due.It pi$ses me off.I apologize for the names.Give this guy his due though.
I consider calling him in the mold of RA high praise and giving him his due. She was class. I guess I want to see more of Bodemeister before I jump aboard his caboose.

[PaceAdvantage]

I guess since you have 10000 posts you can say this without being attacked. Finally a rational horse player emerges.Attacked? Attacked!?!?!

Oh dead God... :faint:

[Striker]

If he gets more of a foundation under him he probably does win it.That's on either the owners or Baffert.But Big Bob got him as razor sharp as he could within the time frame.That either of these guys,horse and man,are targets,I have to say,that's some shallow criticism for people that claim to be fans of this game.
Most of the horses that didn't race as a 2yo had nowhere near the foundation that Bode had. He was working quite extensively, and Baffert usually trains them hard, all during his 2yo season. Now I know there is nothing like race experience, but the fact that Bode had 26 workouts before his January debut gave him maybe the best chance ever to break that record IMO when he finally got in the gate for the KD.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Most of the horses that didn't race as a 2yo had nowhere near the foundation that Bode had. He was working quite extensively, and Baffert usually trains them hard, all during his 2yo season. Now I know there is nothing like race experience, but the fact that Bode had 26 workouts before his January debut gave him maybe the best chance ever to break that record IMO when he finally got in the gate for the KD.

Oh man and we saw it within view there for just an inkling.I didn't bet him,but you couldn't tell if you saw me,on the feet,voice at the top of the lungs,man did I want to see that horse home!Heartbreaker.

[BlueShoe]

Some blame should go to the fact they allow 20 horses in the race. If it was limited to 14, Trinniberg wouldn't have been in there. The selfishness of Trinniberg's connections cost Bodemeister a deserved Derby win.
It remains a question mark about Bode without Trinni, but all of us agree that Trinniberg should not have contested the Derby. The proper spot for him would have been one week earlier in the one mile Derby Trial, and it is iffy if he would have won that. Hierro and Paynter are nice but unexceptional as yet colts, but Trinni got away with soft fractions in his Bay Shore win, and the splits in the Trial were much faster, that is without comparing track variants in both races.

[Greyfox]

It remains a question mark about Bode without Trinni, but all of us agree that Trinniberg should not have contested the Derby. The proper spot for him would have been one week earlier in the one mile Derby Trial, and it is iffy if he would have won that..

I don't like it either when a horse like Trinniberg, who has never raced over 7 furlongs, gets into the Derby.
You know that it's connections are going to try to send it to the top and try to steal the race. Of course that compromises the hopes of some early speed types who have been honing their skills at longer distances.
To make matters worse, Trinniberg just squeeked in as a qualifier with his sprint win on April 7.
But that's horse racing.
Every owner and trainer who has a young colt wants to see it run in the Kentucky Derby.
Even if it has a snowball's chance in Hades of winning, they want it to have a chance. That's their dream and as long as they have that dream, I can't knock them as the horse qualified under the present rules.
Having said that, it's up to trainers to prepare for that contingency and have their steeds ready to run against any "fly and die" type who makes it into the big show.
In the rear view mirror, Baffert might be questioning his advice to Smith about letting Bodemeister "run his race." Then again maybe he isn't.

[RXB]

Maybe they should consider graded earnings only at a mile or farther.

[cj]

Maybe they should consider graded earnings only at a mile or farther.

Where do you draw the line? If you are going to include a distance requirement, do surface requirements count too? Do we exclude turf races? Synthetic track races? Do we count 2yo races, or only 3yo races?

Why does G3 money count as much as G1 money? There are probably G3 races where running second gets you more than winning some G1s.

The whole system needs an overhaul, but lets not fix it like the BCS, just little changes each year that are usually too late.

[Robert Fischer]

A great horse isn't going to lose the Derby or Triple Crown because of a TRINNIBERG!

"c'mon mannn"

[thaskalos]

A field of 20 is too much...IMO. The Kentucky Derby field should be reduced to 14 starters.

Here is something that our racing leaders have never been able to understand:

The Derby attracts millions of viewers who are unlikely to be exposed to horse racing for the rest of the year. It would help enormously if our sport's flagship race actually became a little more predictable than the Derby currently is...since, after all, this is a gambling game.

It must be pretty disheartening to these once-a-year horseplayers to watch the Derby...when it seems that, year after year, the horse who wins the race is one that NONE of the experts has even mentioned in their pre-race analysis.

The infrequent racegoer must be asking himself:

"What chance do I have in this game...when all these legitimate experts are wrong so often...in the premier race of the sport?"

Reduce the field to 14 starters, and the results will start making better sense...which figures to keep newcomers interested in the game for a little longer than a TV Kentucky Derby telecast.

Hey...you have to start somewhere...

[Marshall Bennett]

A field of 20 is too much...IMO. The Kentucky Derby field should be reduced to 14 starters.

I don't think anything should ever change with the TC races. Besides, reducing the field to 14 starters would eliminate a lot of potential talent with graded stakes earnings deserving of a shot. You start tinkering with these races and making adjustments, tradition is removed and question marks will always follow future winners as to how they would have run before the changes.

[Lon Chaney]

I don't think anything should ever change with the TC races. Besides, reducing the field to 14 starters would eliminate a lot of potential talent with graded stakes earnings deserving of a shot. You start tinkering with these races and making adjustments, tradition is removed and question marks will always follow future winners as to how they would have run before the changes.

Huh?

What tradition? The 20 horse field didn't come about until the early 90s.

[Dahoss9698]

I pretty much despise jockeys, but I'm sorry....Smith did absolutely nothing wrong in the Derby. Bodemeaister ran well, very well and way too good to lose. But Smith had him free running and comfortable which is all he could do.

Bode got run down in a good performance, but I think he showed he's top of the class at this point based on his performance.

[turninforhome10]

Did anybody here accuse Martinez of going to slow. Shame on him for not going :44 and trying to wire the field. It is really Willie's fault:rolleyes:

[wisconsin]

Huh?

What tradition? The 20 horse field didn't come about until the early 90s.


Huh?

Many fields as far back as the 50's had 16-17 runners, in 1974 there were 23 starters. There have been shorter fields, but they were not the norm.

[riskman]

The only one to blame for Bodemeisters loss is I'll Have Another.
Smith is blameless here. IHA, 4 for 4 in 2012 is now at PMLICO getting ready to see if this streak moves forward.
BTW, congrats to turninforhome10 who posted the winner on his blog.

[JPinMaryland]

It's hard to say 20 horse fields are traditional. I count one field of 20 and at least 3 of 17 in the 50s...

Even in the 30s there were three races (32, 35 and '37) that had 20 one other had 15 and a few had 13. I am not sure what the policy was but it looks like their policy seems to have varied quite a bit over the years. Most of the 1940s and quite a few in the 60s were fairly small fields.

I think 20 is too many. Perhaps 16 might be a good compromise. But I guess alll the long shots make the betting a bit more unusual.

[Greyfox]

I like the 20 horses idea.
If....and that is an if...you hit exotics, they pay exponentially more than what they do most days.
Cheers for 20!:ThmbUp:

[wisconsin]

I like the 20 horses idea.
If....and that is an if...you hit exotics, they pay exponentially more than what they do most days.
Cheers for 20!:ThmbUp:


Ditto

[turninforhome10]

It's hard to say 20 horse fields are traditional. I count one field of 20 and at least 3 of 17 in the 50s...

Even in the 30s there were three races (32, 35 and '37) that had 20 one other had 15 and a few had 13. I am not sure what the policy was but it looks like their policy seems to have varied quite a bit over the years. Most of the 1940s and quite a few in the 60s were fairly small fields.

I think 20 is too many. Perhaps 16 might be a good compromise. But I guess alll the long shots make the betting a bit more unusual.

This is not about the bettors, this about 3yo horses getting their one chance to run for the roses. I agree that Trinniberg did not belong but how you gonna tell someone with their horse they can't run. That would mean that 4 owners that poured their hard earned money and all the time they have spent to get to Derby would not get their shot. I would rather loose my bet than to see someone denied their dream.

[JPinMaryland]

yeah I know and there's nothing wrong with thinking that way. On the other hand, sometimes a huge field creates so much traffic problems that a horse that truly deserved to win or hit the board was compromised.

How do you weigh that? The danger in letting some longshot possibly winning the Roses vs. a horse that truly has a chance. It seems like there are some of those every year. This year Union Rags got messed up on the break. Last year you could make a case that Dialed in might have had a chance....

Maybe a better idea is to let them draw the post positions based on graded earnings. Or even a system based on graded races but with emphasis on recent wins. I would think we could get more agreement on something like that. Let the longshots go off from the auxiliary gate and if there's a Gato del Sole out there, that's great. But let the better hoses go from 3 or 4 post or whatever...

[Dark Horse]

yeah I know and there's nothing wrong with thinking that way. On the other hand, sometimes a huge field creates so much traffic problems that a horse that truly deserved to win or hit the board was compromised.

How do you weigh that? The danger in letting some longshot possibly winning the Roses vs. a horse that truly has a chance. It seems like there are some of those every year. This year Union Rags got messed up on the break. Last year you could make a case that Dialed in might have had a chance....

Maybe a better idea is to let them draw the post positions based on graded earnings. Or even a system based on graded races but with emphasis on recent wins. I would think we could get more agreement on something like that. Let the longshots go off from the auxiliary gate and if there's a Gato del Sole out there, that's great. But let the better hoses go from 3 or 4 post or whatever...

It's not so much the post position that gets horses in trouble in the Derby, but the proximity of speed horses/fast starters angling for the rail. The fast start of #6 Bodemeister, angling for the rail, forced #5 Dullahan just behind him to angle as well. That cut off #4 Union Rags right out of the gate. With Leparoux in the saddle he lost the race there. Possibly interesting detail. The more conservative Leparoux sat between two Cajun riders, and three time Derby winners, Desormeaux and Borel. Big difference in riding styles and guts. (not entirely impossible that they decided to 'challenge' the race favorite early).

And there have been plenty of closers winning this race, with jockeys threading the needle through tight traffic. That's one of the things that makes the race special and often spectacular. Compare the rides of a Johnny Velazquez (Went the Day Well) and a Leparoux (Union Rags). After the start they were both in the back of the field. Excellent jockeys win this race almost every year. Good jockeys not so much. What Gutierrez pulled off in his first Derby is cream of the crop stuff.

Anyway, the Derby is a fantastic race. And the big field, with longshots winning often, creates equally fantastic betting opportunities. No need to change a thing. Would you complain if you held the $1 superfecta ticket that paid out $864K some years ago? Way too much moaning about this race here. This is not your every day race. If you can't cap it, skip it.

[wisconsin]

There is no need to reduce the number of starters to appease a minority opinion.

Imagine if they decided to limit the number of starters in the Melbourne Cup or the Arc, or for that matter, the Grand National.

Races like this are best left alone when it comes to limiting starters. I can recall many an Arlington-Washington Futurity where they had two gates to accomodate the large field.

[turninforhome10]

Is this not a bit like saying that Richmond or Weber State never belonged in the NCAA tourneys as they got in the way of the number one and number two seeds to move forward.

[canleakid]

"oh no Mike Smith part 2" :bang: left the damn door wide open!!!! :mad:

[iceknight]

yeah I know and there's nothing wrong with thinking that way. On the other hand, sometimes a huge field creates so much traffic problems that a horse that truly deserved to win or hit the board was compromised.
.. Well, just like they do with human races in separate lanes, they can build distance adjusted lanes for each horse to run (with fences) and each horse can stay within the fence for the entire distance. Then it will just be a question of speed. HELLO>> they dont do that even in quarter horse racing.. you are asking for too much.

Maybe they can do qualifying runs like they do for formula 1 car racing, to decide post positions. [not] :lol: