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View Full Version : Belmont Picks: May 5:


Teach
05-05-2012, 12:32 PM
Race One:

In the one mile and one-eighth turf race, I like :6: Fox Rules with the red-hot Junior Alvarado. This horse finished second in similar company about a month ago. Although he has only one win and a second in eight lifetime starts, he's faced much tougher stakes competition in the past. His turf pedigree is good; his two board-hitting efforts both came on the grass. He should be forwardly placed; he'll just need to get that extra sixteenth of a mile. Others to consider are: #10 Stephen's Revenge. This horse is very well bred for the turf (Rahy). He's hit the board in four of six lifetime turf tries. His jock, Edgar Prado, had a win on yesterday's card. Another horse to look at is: #3 Ampersand with Alan Garcia. The horse easily broke his maiden in his most recent effort about a month ago. He's hit the board on two of four lifetime turf tries. Finally, a couple oother horses I'm looking at are: #11 Chardsey. He's hit the board three times in seven lifetime turf tries. He was brushed leaving the gate last time. A cleaner trip should help this late-charging horse. Finally, #12 Mr. Vantastic is a Bounding Basque-bred gelding who he's hit the board in 40% of his turf tries. He might just add value to your exotics.

Race Two:

This maiden race that has been taken off the turf is a tough one to handicap. I'm going with :12: Parachute Coney with Mike Luzzi. For one, I believe this horse will handle the dirt better than most. Secondly, I like the horse's trainer, Dom Galluscio. Third, the horse has hit the board in six of nine lifetime starts. Admittedly, those six were all third-place finishes. Yet, this just might be the maiden-breaking spot. #15 Pegasus Papou is an MTO that draws in. He's another horse that will certainly benefit from the switch from turf to dirt. The horse has hit thye board in nearly half of his thirty-one lifetime starts. Another horse to consider is the alliteratively named #10 Tall Tale Teller. He's hit the board in two of his four lifetime starts. He has been off for a couple months. His dam had three winners from four starters. Finally, a longshot try: #6 Cat Man Fu. The horse is three for 12, lifetime, on the dirt. He just might surprise and add value to your exotics.

Race Three:

My choice here is :4: Harpsichord. First, the horse has jockey Junior Alvarado in the irons. Secondly, she should benefit from his only career start - a race that he got off slowly - down at Gulfstream. Third, she looks like she should be coming off the tailgate. My only question is the distance: 5 and 1/2 furlongs, is it long enough? #3 Last Minute Rose looks like the major danger. She has the services of the hot-as-a-petardo, Cornelio Velasquez. The filly has hit the tote in four of six lifetime starts. She might benefit from shortening up a half-furlong. #8 Sunday At Nipper's got bet down as the favorite in her last only to finish off the board. She can make amends here. Finally, #2 Swimmer with David Cohen drops into the maiden claiming ranks. This lightly raced 4-year-old filly has only one pari-mutuel start. There is certainly room for improvement.

Race Four:

:10: Al's Lark is my medium-longshot pick here. I think the horse should benefit from an outside post. He's also got some wet-track (there still could be some residual moisture) breeding in Phone Trick. The capable Irad Ortiz gets the mount for this Bruce Levine-trainee. Others to consider are: #1 Cat In The Forest. This horse has been very consistent (he did finish fifth in his last). There's also a strong rider-trainer combination in David Cohen and David Jacobson. #4 Wildcat Frankie won his last down at Gulfstream in very solid time. Anna Napravnik has been bringing in her share of winners on the NYRA citrcuit. Rick Dutrow's a solid trainer. #3 Soda Pop Kid by Lemon Drop Kid is a solid veteran horse. He did win his last at Aqueduct in a solid 1:10.3 for six furlongs. Should not be ignored in this field.

Race Five:

:7: More Zen Tea looks like the prohibitive fave in this turf race. The horse has fine turf breeding and the services of a red-hot jock, Junior Alvarado. The horse finished second last time despite being three wide on both turns. If they draw in, I like #15 Sam's Buck with Eddie Castro. He narrowly missed breaking his maiden last time on the turf; also #16 Knock Quietly. The gelding has hit the board in half of his lifetime turf tries. Then, there's a longshot try, #9 Powerful Instinct. The horse should benefit from an outside post; he has faster than average winning turf speed.

Race Six:

:8: Emcee is the horse to beat. He finished fourth in the Carter Handicap about a month ago. He was part of a Godolphin entry. He did have an excuse in his last effort as he lost his footing at the start. A cleaner trip would all that would seem necessary. #9 Manteca has finished second four straight times. Is today the day he gets his picture taken? This A.P. Indy-bred gelding is a classy sort with lifetime earnings in excess of 1/3rd of a million dollars. David Cohen is in the irons for this David Jacobson trainee. #4 Gallant Fields has hit the board in eight straight races. No reason to believe Eddie Castro-ridden Smarty Jones-bred gelding can't make it nine straight. #5 Remand was last seen in the Stymie at Aqueduct over a year ago. The horse has loads of class. He's raced in the Dwyer, the BayShore and The Groovy. Yes, the horse has been away from the races a long time, and yes, he may need one or two starts; yet, if he's reasonably ready, he may surprise and add value to an exotic.

Race Seven:

:1: Winter Memories has won six of nine lifetime turf races. My only concern is that she's been away from the races for a long time; she was last seen at Keeneland last October. If the filly is reasonably fit, she should win this race. She did have a sharp five-furlong bullet work at Belmont about a week ago. #7 Redbyrd won the Videogenic at Aqueduct about three weeks ago. The filly appears to be in sharp form; she's hit the tote in five of his six recent tries. Edgar Prado's in the irons. #3 Hessonite has been away from the races for several months. When last seen on the racetrack, this filly was winning The Ticonderoga at Belmont on a yielding surface. Finally, last but not least, #2 Federation merits serious consideration. The filly has been either first or second in three tries since coming to America. Her last effort was a third in the Grade 3 Hillsborough at Tampa. The rock-solid Cornelio Velasquez rides for trainer Cristophe Clement.

Race Eight:

I'm going with the hot hand, jockey Junior Alvardo; he's aboard :12: Jupiter Trio. THis horse has hit the tote in five of his last six starts. I believe this grey colt has as good a chance as any of winning this race. THis is an ad=mittedly off-the-wall try for value with #11 Smokin Hero. The horse has been away from the races for over three months. Yet, in the past, he's faced much stiffer competition. If trainer Chris Englehart has this horse reasonably ready, he might surprise. #9 Cooper River is a horse who fits well in this field. This Mt. Livermore-bred bred colt has been no worse than fourth in his recent starts. He too could be a surprise factor. #3 Driven By Solar may well be on the lead. The horse may benefit from shortening up to six furlongs. Another angle is a third start back from a layoff.

Race Nine:

In the feature race, The Grade 3 Fort Marcy on the turf, I like :8: Desert Blanc. The horse ships in from "Across the Pond". The horse has solid turf credentials; he should prevail with his main rivals having been declared. #9 Sal The Barber (Maglie) might just surprise and add value to your ticket. This Cozzene-bred horse is most capable of getting his number up on the tote. The "on the muscle" rider, Cornelio Velasquez, is an added plus. #6 Boisterous has won half his turf starts. He looms as very much a factor with these. Finally, #1 Boots Ahead has raced in stakes competition. He's most capable of picking up the pieces in your exotics.

Race Ten:

:12: Sheridan Square had no chance in his last; he was carried in at the start. He now draws outside. Although he's only hit the board once, he might just surprise for the racing duo of rider C C Lopez and trainer John Hertler. #8 Pure Nature was the badly beaten favorite in his last. The horse was spent after four furlongs. He now has a chance to make amends #10 Keyaly is not likely to win this race; yet to complete a gimmick. Yes, that's within the realm of possibilities. Finally, #3 Sirtori was second in his last. There's no reason to believe that this Todds Pletcher-trained horse can't be there once again.