How do you handicap?

[dav4463]

It might be a simple question, but it is interesting to see the different styles of handicapping. For instance, do you get the DRF, look at the consensus picks and then look for horses to beat them? Do you scan the form for running styles first and then determine which horses fit the race? Or, do you use a number system that rates each horse in the field? How about the time spent on a race? Some people handicap a race in two minutes, some take half an hour or more. There are many different ways to do the same thing. I am interested in looking at the different approaches. IN other words, when you FIRST sit down with the past performances.....what is your style?

[Shacopate]

David,

My style of handicapping depends on the type of race.

Turf- class, %E, and late speed.
Stakes- trainer histories, class, form cycles
Alw- trainer intent (and at Kee, owner intent)
MSW- pedigree, works, barn, trainer, jockey
Mdn Clm- early speed, drop from MSW
Clm- all of the above

One thing I try to do for every race is rate the early pace leader and try and determine its overall impact on the race.

[Que]

Shacopate,

Have you read "The Handicappers Condition Book" by James Quinn? The strategies that Quinn describes very closely match your own. I'd be curious how you measure "form cycles" though, this is a topic I just can't seem to get my hands around--form is very tough to quantify, but very important nonetheless.

regards, Que.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I go through the DRF and eliminate horses by my consistency factors; then judge running style, risk, and then value based on win place or show.

[BIG HIT]

I frist look at the horse that are 5 to 1 or higher ml.Then trainer intent.Then the fraction's of the last couple of race of each horse.Then class\condition's of race and horse.As for fourm i use last two race's mainly if he was 1 length behind at half or 2 length at 3\4 or 3 length at finish last race i consider him sharp for today's race.

[so.cal.fan]

I use the DRF.
I only handicap one type of race, so I don't have very much work to do, and only have about 4 races a week to handicap.
I try to use all the angles you all mention.....basically to identify the horse who best fits the class and distance.
However.....this is only half of my work.
I judge a horse's condition in the paddock and, if needed, the warm up. This determines if I bet my money or not.
I end up betting about two races a week.........that is why I have so much time to spend on this board! ;)

[Amazin]

I am in transiton from manual to computer capping. I am in the process of refining my homemade computer program.So now I handicap my handicapping program.

I don't want to spend hours studying the form anymore cause most of us will experience burn out after several days in succession and 30 tracks, and in the end are wrong most of the time anyrate.What a waste of time.

[dav4463]

I actually enjoy studying the racing form, but then I am the type who reads baseball, basketball, and football box scores too !

[Shacopate]

Que,

I did read Quinns CLASS chapter in Bet with the Best, but not the condition book. I also have the new one.

[sjk]

Programmed my computer to do the handicapping.

[alysheba88]

Go through the races in reverse order of my preference. Ie; I do best on maiden and stakes races so do those last.,

Eliminate the losers first, narrow down to 3-4 contenders, assign an odds line to the contenders.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I do worst at straight maidens and stakes. For me they seem to run to form worst!

[acorn54]

use computer models to do the handicapping
i'm not that organized and i feel the computer gives more consistent results,no emotional factor to deal with.

[Larry Hamilton]

"How do I handicap?"

very well, thank you

[Tom]

Originally posted by Amazin

I don't want to spend hours studying the form anymore cause most of us will experience burn out after several days in succession and 30 tracks, and in the end are wrong most of the time anyrate.What a waste of time. \

When you say 30 tracks, do you 'cap each race, or are you looking for certain types of races and get a few at each one?
I find I can burnout halfway through an afternoon if I try to look at too many tracks.

[JohnGalt1]

After deciding on the day I'll go to the track I'll download from Bris and use their new custom generator. I set the layoff line at 28 days and delete the Bris pace numbers.

I use a hand written worksheet and divide the horses by their running styles-- E EP P S.

Then I compute the William L. Scott Performance Class Rating on every horse. I do not use the second fraction, only the final fraction because the second fraction determines running style which I've already done.

Then I make pace figures using the method from Pace Makes the Race by Sartin. The running lines I use is 2 of the last three and average them together, or two of the three fastest after layoffs (If off a layoff.) If the horse is dropping in class or had trouble in last race I will keep going down the lines until I find a stopping point of a race at today's class. Sometimes I can take the two fastest races from all 10 lines.

Then on my worksheet I'll list the horses. Abbreviated name, math for PCR, if back class will write that number in parentheses, workouts within last five days, if two days will put in parentheses, turf breeding number from Dan Serra's turf rating book or for first timers the rating from the Sire Stasts book, the PCR number, from factors from Scott's Total Victory at the Track, then the pace figures. I include the fastest two furlong figure from either race but don't add it to my total pace figure. Example-

E
6) Some 81/21-3.5=17.5 (-3) 295 NNN 96/83 83 166

A strong play is a horse with no form defects and is in the top three in both PCR and pace. If I see mixed signals I either pass the race or play most or all in a pick 3/4 if I'm disciplined.

It takes me about 15 minutes per race.

I have handicapped whole cards and played only one race. But I've found cards where I could play all but one.

My way is an amalgamation of logical things I've read and borrowed from many sources. I've added factors and deleted them if they prove to have a minor impact. Allways software has 71 factors I think, and even though I'm sure it works for some simple works better for me.

Because I average $60- 120 per race I can't just grab the form and scan if for a few minutes and make a bet like many of my friends do at the track. While they hit a few they probably play too many races.

My way is not for everyone and I read these boards and other articles on the net, subscribe to ATM and Horseplayer magazine to find any new factor I might add to my method.

We all take a different path, but we all end up at the same place-- at the windows or SAM machines.

[Amazin]

Tom

The 30 tracks thing was a figure of speech. But even figuring out 30 races is bound to take it's toll on judgement and accuracy.

In the old days,all you had was 1 track available with 8 or 9 races and a simplified racing form with limited information.Wasn't so stressful as today's hi tech information age with a plethora of tracks to play,and a multitude of bet types to choose from. You can't approach the game the same way anymore without either burnout or sacrificing accuracy

[Tom]

Funny, we are going in opposite directins on this one. I am de-emphasizing reliance on computers and going back to playing relatively few races at even fewer tracks, and going back to basics foe handicapping. I think my MPH program will end up being my mainstay, in cominbation with DRF downloads. The hi-tech handicapping world has turned me sour and I am not willing to waste any more time or money on it.

Good luck with you program.

[Bubbles]

I don't use any programs. I look at PP's, and I decide my wager based on times, weight additions/subtractions, and maybe layoffs. I DON'T USE ANY SPEED FIGURES. On some of them, you can run a lackluster time, win by seven lengths, and get the high fig of the day. They can get tremendously bloated and unreliable, leading to deceptive odds. Although, when everyone else at the track is using figs, I'm all for 'em...;) :D :)

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
I only handicap one type of race, so I don't have very much work to do, and only have about 4 races a week to handicap.


Just out of curiousity, what is the one type of race that you play So.cal.fan?

Personally, I prefer 6 and 6.5F dirt sprints because I can get a better handle on the pace scenario.

[so.cal.fan]

Claiming distance races for 4 and up males. Dirt.

[JimG]

Tom,

As info I sent you a PM. Thanks.

[peakpros]

I guess I do things the old fashion way.

I only bet one track (Monmouth) and only when I am there in person. About three days out of five a week.

I use mostly trip/bias handicapping. And I spend all my time before the race at the paddock. Even on a bad day it sure beats being almost anywhere else.

I lurk around this forum daily. The combination of handicapping knowledge and technical expertise here is just incredible.

I would like to get more involved in the technical aqspects of the game but to be honest after reading so much I don't know where to begin.

[JimG]

Peakpros,

I think some of us in the more technical aspects of the game wish we were at the Monmouth Paddock with you 3 out of 5 days. Sounds like fun.

I always enjoy going to Colonial Downs when they are open and doing the same. It serves the remind me that those four legged things running across my tv screen are flesh and blood, not machines.