Kentucky Derby: Final Pass

[PaceAdvantage]

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[maddog42]

Your analysis is as good as anybody. One small disagreement. If this track gets less than good (muddy, sloppy) I really like El Padrino. The 111 bris rating he ran 3 back will stomp this field. I don't think he will run well on a dry track.

[raybo]

Yeah, I have Bode and El Padrino pretty much even, but it all boils down to track condition and early pace duels, if any. Hell, any of 6 or 8 horses could win this one.

[Greyfox]

Dullahan, according to Trackus, ran some tremendous quarters in the Blue Grass.
One doesn't see much of the old Dosage theory re: The Kentucky Derby these days, but Dullahan's dosage is 4.20.
Does that concern anyone here?

[Tom]

Get the shovels - bury him!

[Vinnie]

All of these are younger horses and let's face it we are trying to catch the one or several of these 3 year olds that are showing the most improvement right now. A lot of things can happen, but, Dullahan is a very strong play. By what I use he is tied for Best Time with Take Charge Indy and Union Rags at 9f, he is my M/L favorite. He is tied for Best Recent Time and he is the only horse that shows a negative Friction number in this race which normally bodes well for a horse to show steady improvement. He shows the Best Recent Form as well from Both Workouts alone and Workouts and Races considered combined.

Who knows how these young horses will react out there with the Huge Crowd and all of the other horses involved, but, that is what makes it so alluring as well. At 10 to 1 he is definitely a nice WPS proposition. The fact that he is a midpack ruinner under the type of race setup I expect he is definitely a good bet.

Good Luck to everyone today.