View Full Version : Official PaceAdvantage.com Kentucky Derby Analysis

05-05-2012, 04:33 AM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/6.jpg Bodemeister (6-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg Dullahan (6-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Creative Cause (8-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/4.jpg Union Rags (12-1)

I've heard a rumor that this renewal of the Derby might feature a wicked early pace. Considering there are four E7 or E8s in the race goes a long way to supporting that notion once and for all. However, I really believe Hansen is the one who will carry the front end as far and as long as he can (which is to say, not so far and long). I have no faith in Hansen to get this distance, either as part of an early pace dust up, or being left alone on the lead.

I really believe Bodemeister is a huge threat to win the Kentucky Derby, but I can't bet him to win. This is a race filled with rapidly improving three-year-olds, so really, anything can happen, and often does.

So why would I take a likely short price on Bodemeister? Yes, he is a huge threat, but he is by no means a lock. How many things need to go right for ANY potential winner in a race like this? And you're going to settle for a less than stellar price? Look at my line. The favorite on my line is 6-1! That should tell you all you need to know right there. Grab a list of contenders, assign an odds line and bet accordingly. Sounds simple, right?

I want to wager on any of my contenders that are paying from 10-1 at a MINIMUM.

Who will fit this bill? Not Bodemeister or Union Rags.

So that leaves me with Dullahan and Creative Cause.

Dullahan is being bet enough and talked about enough that he will probably not hit 10-1, although anything is possible. This horse improved dramatically the last time he went AWS to real dirt. Looking for similar improvement today, which puts him right near the wire at the end, plus his running style is quite conducive to a race with a lot of pace in it.

Creative Cause is damn interesting to me because I think he's going to be overlooked, especially with all the rumors surrounding him as of late. He has an excellent style for this type of race, a competent jockey on his back, and he is likely to go off higher than his 12-1 morning line. His figure pattern of late also suggests he's sitting on another big effort. I will accept whatever risk might be involved in betting a horse surrounded by rumor if the price is right enough, and in this case, it is certain to be.

If the track comes up wet, I'm going to take a long hard look at Take Charge Indy. I think this horse LOVES a wet track, but I still think he's a bit too distance challenged to make him part of my original contender's list.

So there you have my contenders, my value line, and my minimum playing odds (10-1). Let's hope one of the above fits the bill.

Good Luck!