Is Bodemeister beatable?

[Bill Cullen]

I think he is.

Bodemeister is quite beatable for several reasons:

1) The class level of his last two races as measured by ths Brisnet RR class rating (the average class of the field) is one to two notches below a number of the other major contenders.

2) For all of his four races, only one pace call out of the eight paces calls (considering the first and second pace calls) was above par and that was just one point above par. All the other 7 pace calls were below par with a median rating of minus 6.5.

3) What makes folks think that Bodemesiter can rate? His only two wins were when he was on the lead at the first call.

4) Trinninberg and Hansen are going to run Bodemeister's ass off.

5) And in terms of a significantly large sample in both the number of horses involved and the number of years that have gone by, the no-races-as-a- two-year-old looms large.

Andy Beyer may still be right: but his analysis is incomplete IMHO.

Good Luck to all!

Bill C

[sovereign]

Like an egg being prepared for breakfast.

[pondman]

Forget about class. Forget about rating. Hansen will not be there after the half and bodemeister won't let up. He's too fast for these. He's another war emblem.

The real question is whether Dullahan can sneak in 2nd.

[Lon Chaney]

Union Rags will pass him, as will 3-4 other horses down the stretch.

[pandy]

Big numbers earned when a horse gets loose on the lead against lesser are always tough to duplicate in a more contentious pace situation. But if he can rate off the leaders and use that speed to take the lead on the turn it could work. I didn't use him.

[Greyfox]

He'll have company on the front, but he's got too much talent to leave out.
I won't toss him.

[Robert Fischer]

in my dream V1 wins, and VI is :6: Bodemeister, so no.

A lot depends on the trip. There's a good chance he could be pressing the pace (Hansen, Trinniberg) and have it easy until deep stretch.

His best case would be inheriting the lead. All by himself at the top of the stretch and just has to keep running.
Worst case Hansen gets brave. Then a contender comes to tackle and two contenders come charging down the middle and Bode gets to bearing out in the lane.

[pandy]

He'll have company on the front, but he's got too much talent to leave out.
I won't toss him.


I feel the same way about Hansen. I can understand people who leave him out but at the same time, he is fast and game, always digs in and gives it everything he's got late.

[Sundown]

I'm with Pandy on this one especially if the track stays like it was today, Hansen will be rolling to an easy win. Track tightens up then he'll be fighting it out in the stretch.

[PaceAdvantage]

But the difference between Hansen and Bodemeister is that Bodemeister is a serious racehorse with very good closing numbers.

Hansen...not so much...

Bodemesiter is a huge threat but won't be a reasonable price. And in races like this, I need big prices on contenders.

[Vinnie]

Really like Bodemeister and he may do me in, but, I am not going to be using him for the Top spot at all. I know that he is a serious racehorse, but, with company up there on the front end in Hansen and Trinniberg, I don't see him being quite as comfortable as he was romping on the front end in his last race.

I really like Dullahan from somewhere in the middle and Went The Day Well with Johnny V for the Win. This is of course unless something happens before now and race time tomorrow. :)

Good luck to everyone tomorrow. Enjoy a great Derby weekend.

[Sundown]

Definitely agree about closing numbers and I always get burned liking early speed in the Derby. Waiting to see how it is playing tomorrow before I finalize anything. Even though Tberg will be gunning M. Maker said he's going to let Ramon decide on how Hansen is running. If he is looking like as much of a handful as his last workout in the post parade that will be the last question to answer. Dullahan will be all over the verticals.

[depalma113]

Big numbers earned when a horse gets loose on the lead against lesser are always tough to duplicate in a more contentious pace situation. But if he can rate off the leaders and use that speed to take the lead on the turn it could work. I didn't use him.

Everyone keeps referencing his Arkansas Derby, yet his San Felipe was a stronger race than pretty much anything in the entire field has run. It is going to take a serious race horse to beat him. His worst 2 turn race is still better than almost every other horse in the race.

[headhawg]

Really like Bodemeister and he may do me in, but, I am not going to be using him for the Top spot at all.I'm with you on this Vinnie. I can't quite convince myself to toss completely, but I'm close. The biggest reason is that I don't know if he will pass a horse when he needs to. As Bill said, his two wins were on the front end, and when he didn't get it he lost. He's not going to get the lead in the Derby, so now what? We all have seen high fig horses not be there at the end, and there sure seems to be a lot of good horses who will be up front. Is he the best of the front running types? Maybe. And maybe-types who will be underlays don't get my money. At least, not in the top slot. ;)

[Marshall Bennett]

I see Bodemeister winning this in the same fashion Barbaro won. A two or three length victory wouldn't surprise me a bit.

[bks]

Track looks completely speed favoring at this point. Bodes very well for the Bode-meister if it continues.

[GaryG]

I see Bodemeister winning this in the same fashion Barbaro won. A two or three length victory wouldn't surprise me a bit.Exactly what I just told my wife....with $10 mil in the pool he is still 7-1, plenty good enough for a win bet.

[raybo]

I've got Bodemeister graded #1, if he doesn't get into an early battle with Trinni and Hansen. He has good early speed and can finish well too.

He's a handful, but yes, he can be beaten. It wouldn't be a big surprise, to me, if El Padrino won this thing.

[rastajenk]

I feel strongly both ways. The unraced-at-two thing bugs me a lot, so I left him completely out of some combos.

But the dominant Beyer is too great to ignore, so I got him keying a bunch of exactas and tris.

That's the thing with us Pisces; no good can come from making a strong commitment. :cool:

Especially at 7-1.

[Robert Fischer]

If Albarado hadn't made that huge error with Curlin when he failed to follow Sedgefield in the pocket, would we still bring up this 2yo stuff?

Some of the winners since then haven't run back Curlin's 3rd in that race.

Bodemeister has the speed to get a clean trip. Either he is good enough or he isn't.

[MNslappy]

At 7-1, I'll be rooting for history to happen, for him to move forward again, and for us to have a new front-running, electrifying superstar to cheer for.

[The WindfallAngler]

As before:

"I'm looking for Bodemeister to get a stalking postion, cruise to the front, build up a cushion, fend off charges, then move clear for the win."

[Tom]

I want Bode to win so we will never hear about the last time an un-raced at 2 horse won it! My GAWD, enough already.

But I had never seen that April WO by Bode, where he got crowded by a bunch of horses and then came back through them.

Enough for me.....this is a serious horse who will only get better.
When will I get 6-1 one a Baffert horse who won by 9 lengths and earned 3 triple digit Beyers and has two bullet works since?

[Valuist]

I want Bode to win so we will never hear about the last time an un-raced at 2 horse won it! My GAWD, enough already.

But I had never seen that April WO by Bode, where he got crowded by a bunch of horses and then came back through them.

Enough for me.....this is a serious horse who will only get better.
When will I get 6-1 one a Baffert horse who won by 9 lengths and earned 3 triple digit Beyers and has two bullet works since?

I agree I'm so sick of the Apollo "angle".

The horse ran his eyeballs out. No question who had the best performance in the race. Not even close.

[Lon Chaney]

Maybe if he didn't run a 45 and 1, he could have won the race.

[Sysonby]

I don't feel like there's any maybe about it.

That was an amazing run by Bodemeister. I liked the winner and I had him in my tickets, but I'm blown away by what Bodemeister did.

[Vinnie]

Congratulations to I'll have Another and his connections. I really like Doug O'Neill. Man, I never would have had him. By my estimation he improved quite a bit to win this one. Congats to the Connections. :) Bode Ran Huge with those Fractions...

[Lon Chaney]

I don't feel like there's any maybe about it.

That was an amazing run by Bodemeister. I liked the winner and I had him in my tickets, but I'm blown away by what Bodemeister did.

Yeah, my comment was tongue in cheek.

[JustRalph]

Congratulations to I'll have Another and his connections. I really like Doug O'Neill. Man, I never would have had him. By my estimation he improved quite a bit to win this one. Congats to the Connections. :) Bode Ran Huge with those Fractions...

Doug O winning is a disgrace.........

[lsbets]

Maybe if he didn't run a 45 and 1, he could have won the race.
I watched on my iPhone at my daughters gymnastics meet one of the other parents asked me "Who is this Mike Smith you keep calling a moron".

I can't believe he got second after the 45.1. As far as I am concerned, smith lost this race.

[depalma113]

That :45 1/5 cost Bodemeister the Triple Crown.

[Greyfox]

That :45 1/5 cost Bodemeister the Triple Crown.
It cost him the Derby anyways.
He'll be favorite in the Preakness but that's only two weeks to recover from that super effort.

[depalma113]

I don't know if he goes.

I know if he went :46 and change, he would have won easily and than demolished the field in Maryland. The Belmont would have been our best bet for a Triple Crown in years.

[Greyfox]

I don't know if he goes.

I know if he went :46 and change, he would have won easily and than demolished the field in Maryland. The Belmont would have been our best bet for a Triple Crown in years.

Absolutely. :ThmbUp: But the presence of Trinniberg guaranteed a fast pace for anyone who was going to vie for the lead.
Nevertheless, Bodemeister ran a great race setting the fastest splits in the history of the Derby (according to the announcers.)

[tucker6]

I watched on my iPhone at my daughters gymnastics meet one of the other parents asked me "Who is this Mike Smith you keep calling a moron".

I can't believe he got second after the 45.1. As far as I am concerned, smith lost this race.
bingo ...

Everyone seems impressed by Bodie's 45 and 1 without realizing that he lost because of it. Last I checked, the goal is to win. Smith's inability to rein in his horse the first 4F cost him the race. At the top of the stretch, I told my wife that he was losing his legs and would be hard pressed to hold on.

[RXB]

I see Bodemeister as a quality animal who is probably a bit stretched at 10f. Pedigree does matter and Storm Cat mares rarely throw horses that want more than 9f. Can't guarantee it, but that's the most likely scenario.

[keithw84]

Absolutely. :ThmbUp: But the presence of Trinniberg guaranteed a fast pace for anyone who was going to vie for the lead.
Nevertheless, Bodemeister ran a great race setting the fastest splits in the history of the Derby (according to the announcers.)
I think I heard fifth fastest. Not sure if that was for the quarter or half.

[depalma113]

It was the fourth fastest 6 furlongs in the history of the race.

[Vinnie]

Doug O winning is a disgrace.........

I really don't know much about him as I generally only follow the horses. After seeing you and RXB speak of him in such a manner, I am guessing that there is something about him that I am evidently not aware of... :confused:

We were Very Close JustRalph. Man!!! I had no way of knowing that I'll Have Another would have improved by that much. CONGRATS to the horse and Jockey... You could tell that he was genuinely overcome with emotion afterward.

[raybo]

bingo ...

Everyone seems impressed by Bodie's 45 and 1 without realizing that he lost because of it. Last I checked, the goal is to win. Smith's inability to rein in his horse the first 4F cost him the race. At the top of the stretch, I told my wife that he was losing his legs and would be hard pressed to hold on.

Smith said before the race if he got out of the gate well he was going to let him run his race. I thought he ran a hell of a race, except I would have wanted him off the rail a bit more, that had to be the heaviest line on the track. But, setting those kind of fractions and just barely losing says a bunch about this horse, especially on only 3 weeks rest.

We haven't heard the last of him.

[wisconsin]

Pedigree does matter and Storm Cat mares rarely throw horses that want more than 9f


Daughters of Storm Cat have NEVER given birth to a graded stakes winner past 9 furlongs on the dirt.

[depalma113]

Daughters of Storm Cat have NEVER given birth to a graded stakes winner past 9 furlongs on the dirt.


Do you think that performance loses the Preakness?

[senortout]

bingo ...

Everyone seems impressed by Bodie's 45 and 1 without realizing that he lost because of it. Last I checked, the goal is to win. Smith's inability to rein in his horse the first 4F cost him the race. At the top of the stretch, I told my wife that he was losing his legs and would be hard pressed to hold on.

I defy anyone of you to tell me a horse you were riding went 46.1 after a half, or no, he went in 45.1......only in standardbred racing are they informed of this.

[Greyfox]

I think that most of us thought that when Bodemeister went 45.1 for the half that it would be impossible for him to last 11/4 miles.
Then coming down the stretch I thought "Holy Cow" he's going to win it.
And he almost did.
That was a heck of an impressive effort. Soo close, yet soooo far.
Unfortunately, a 3 year old only gets one shot at the Derby.
Could he win the Preakness? Yes.
The question is whether or not he can recover from that fantastic effort in just 14 days? That could be asking a lot. But not impossible.

[depalma113]

I think that most of us thought that when Bodemeister went 45.1 for the half that it would be impossible for him to last 11/4 miles.
Then coming down the stretch I thought "Holy Cow" he's going to win it.

That's it exactly. I had the "Holy Cow" moment.

I thought he's even better than believed.

[elysiantraveller]

I think that most of us thought that when Bodemeister went 45.1 for the half that it would be impossible for him to last 11/4 miles.
Then coming down the stretch I thought "Holy Cow" he's going to win it.
And he almost did.
That was a heck of an impressive effort. Soo close, yet soooo far.
Unfortunately, a 3 year old only gets one shot at the Derby.
Could he win the Preakness? Yes.
The question is whether or not he can recover from that fantastic effort in just 14 days? That could be asking a lot. But not impossible.

When they announced 45 1/5 I said "Holy !@#$, get ready for the cavalry charge."

Then he kept going... and going...

I didn't play him in anyway but when he hit the stretch clear by 5 I was rooting...

Him losing sucks... losing to Drug Oneill makes it even worse.

[Bill Cullen]

Bodemeister almost did it and I started this thread saying why I didn't think he could do it. If he can recover in time for the Preakness AND he has no rabbitt to run against, he could win at Pimlico.

Bill C

[pandy]

My guess is that Bodemeister will skip the Preakness, and the Belmont.

[wisconsin]

Do you think that performance loses the Preakness?

No. The Preakness is a unique race where speed can be and often is carried. When I am separating horses on breeding, common sense must prevail. It's either 9 furlongs or ten furlongs in graded company. The only race in between is the Preakness and the Pimlico Special (do they still run it?). This could be the milestone event for paternal grandkids of Storm Cat to finally win on the dirt in graded company past 9 furlongs. The derby was not going to be that race.

I have nothing against this horse, and had the derby winner only as a saver. Bettors are so about the sire, etc, but forget all about the dam side of things.