howardjim
01-01-2004, 05:45 PM
A HAPPY AND PROFITABLE NEW YEAR TO ALL!
One of the precautions I've found significant and perhaps exchangable among users of the subject files is tracks that do not
mix well.In a continuing attempt to distill criteria for decisions and
minimize subjective judgements,many track lines become false prophets when used at other tracks.This is probably second nature to many though my lessons were expensive.In most instances the reasons are "track class" oriented.At the risk of censure and hope of comments,I employ the following:
HAW...no FP,GLD...few HOO,CBY...usually PRM
TDN....no BEU
AQU(In)...no FL...few SUF,MED
GP.....no CRC in alw or high clm
There are many exceptions predicated on the horse's history but
I require some confirmation of higher ability to consider these lines.The TDN-BEU-RD circuit often embarasses me though BEU
lines are clearly too good.MNR lines underperform often enough
for me to avoid,despite their high purses.PEN lines fall short at PHA and PHA is a mixed bag at DEL,LRL,AQU(in) but not enough to disregard.
Since I am betting 1-3 of 4-5 horses,usually at 8/1+ and in larger fields,prolonged dry spells come with the election.I rely upon Validator tiers after Total Energy gaps,need-to-lead corollaries and E/L Differences have been qualified.For me,the process of
looking back and equivocation has been costly,selecting a representative line and modeling only tier/odds performance
lowers the noise.
It is a pleasure to join this group...great reading and reasoned
opinions abound.
Comments Please,
Mark
One of the precautions I've found significant and perhaps exchangable among users of the subject files is tracks that do not
mix well.In a continuing attempt to distill criteria for decisions and
minimize subjective judgements,many track lines become false prophets when used at other tracks.This is probably second nature to many though my lessons were expensive.In most instances the reasons are "track class" oriented.At the risk of censure and hope of comments,I employ the following:
HAW...no FP,GLD...few HOO,CBY...usually PRM
TDN....no BEU
AQU(In)...no FL...few SUF,MED
GP.....no CRC in alw or high clm
There are many exceptions predicated on the horse's history but
I require some confirmation of higher ability to consider these lines.The TDN-BEU-RD circuit often embarasses me though BEU
lines are clearly too good.MNR lines underperform often enough
for me to avoid,despite their high purses.PEN lines fall short at PHA and PHA is a mixed bag at DEL,LRL,AQU(in) but not enough to disregard.
Since I am betting 1-3 of 4-5 horses,usually at 8/1+ and in larger fields,prolonged dry spells come with the election.I rely upon Validator tiers after Total Energy gaps,need-to-lead corollaries and E/L Differences have been qualified.For me,the process of
looking back and equivocation has been costly,selecting a representative line and modeling only tier/odds performance
lowers the noise.
It is a pleasure to join this group...great reading and reasoned
opinions abound.
Comments Please,
Mark