the Alpha Hoss is Boss

[redeye007]

Alpha to win the Derby of course :cool:

[CincyHorseplayer]

With solid distance ranking/capability,a pressing style,and a likely improved 2nd off layoff race,I'm giving him a big shot and using on my tickets accordingly.

[JustRalph]

I thought he hung pretty badly in the Wood. This time there will be 2 more football fields to go when he hangs.......but if he improves......?

I could say that about 5 more in the field though

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought he hung pretty badly in the Wood. This time there will be 2 more football fields to go when he hangs.......but if he improves......?

I could say that about 5 more in the field though

If the shoe fits so be it.He tracked a solid pace in the Wood off a layoff.Unless that race KO'd him it's pretty natural to assume he'll be more fit to run this time out.Like you I see a lot of horses with a step up,step back pattern that should run well Saturday and a few that have improved so much in a few starts that they are likely to step back.Personally I am going to take a stand against a few of the lower odds horses that have more than 1 reason to take a step back and put some emphasis on horses likely to improve.Alpha being one but to a lesser degree than others.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I think ALPHA moves forward off The Wood. My only concern is his early loading in the gate.

[Black Ruby]

I have Alpha in my mix, but would rate him higher without Garage Mahal riding.

[Producer]

I have Alpha in my mix, but would rate him higher without Garage Mahal riding.


That's nonsense. Rajiv is a better jockey than at least half the big name guys. To each his own, I guess.:bang:

[School of Forego]

Did Alydar hang against Affirmed? Of course not. Alpha did not hang against Gemologist. He just met a superior horse who will also be moving foward. I am not finalizing yet but the Wood exacta could very easily be the derby exacta and you don't even have to reverse. GL:cool:

[setup]

Let's see:

-- rail 1st turn, while Gemologist was 4 wide (or so)

--ran inside (for the most part) and with cover on the backside, while Gemologist went without cover, on the outside

--inside and sucking along on the turn, where Gemologist was 3 wide and making the 1st move

-- couldn't keep up with Gemologist on the turn, was over-matched, even though that one had done significantly more running, and Dominguez went to the whip -- when's the last time Dominguez was whipping on the turn?

--- stayed outside in the stretch, while Gemologist was guided to the rail by Castellano, allowing Alpha to catch up; but once G was steered off the rail late stretch, he was over-matched once again.

But wait: it's 2nd time off the layoff, so he's a real candidate for improvement. :rolleyes: What's the over-under for how many horses need to go down for Alpha to win?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Let's see:

-- rail 1st turn, while Gemologist was 4 wide (or so)

--ran inside (for the most part) and with cover on the backside, while Gemologist went without cover, on the outside

--inside and sucking along on the turn, where Gemologist was 3 wide and making the 1st move

-- couldn't keep up with Gemologist on the turn, was over-matched, even though that one had done significantly more running, and Dominguez went to the whip -- when's the last time Dominguez was whipping on the turn?

--- stayed outside in the stretch, while Gemologist was guided to the rail by Castellano, allowing Alpha to catch up; but once G was steered off the rail late stretch, he was over-matched once again.

But wait: it's 2nd time off the layoff, so he's a real candidate for improvement. :rolleyes: What's the over-under for how many horses need to go down for Alpha to win?


Alpha is a great underneath horse.

Just like Gemologist.

[School of Forego]

setup, I like the way you break down the running of a race but i'm in an awkward spot here because I have to somewhat defend a horse against MY horse who also sounds like he may be yours. I am only saying that even though Gemologist had the much tougher trip imo, Alpha was squeezed back and lost some momentum. It was not drastic but considering the margin at the wire i'm sure alot of Alpha people are hanging their hat on that. Also the possibilities of moving foward. We can say that about all of them though. After all it's that time of year. Looking for the one who will move foward and step up.

Back in the day Sea Hero was off the board in the Bluegrass (when it was a real race) but Mack Miller had his first derby entry primed using that race for conditioning. For me the scarey thing about Gemologist is he really has yet to be asked and is poised to move foward big time. I cannot call Alpha dogmeat though. He won't beat me but he could land second money and his best days may lie ahead.
GL:cool: