11 Toss's Already, 4 More Today

[School of Forego]

The School of Forego has tossed 11 already and after the post draw today we have made 4 more. This leaves just 5 horses. The winner, Gemologist and 4 others. It's crunch time and these toss's were not made lightly. One must take a stand. We can't have them all and i'm afraid that one of my toss's was already given to this board by me as a live horse. Things change. I hope this one does NOT come back to bite me. To remind, when SOF says toss we mean entirely from W/P/S.

The Eleven tossed so far are - Union Rags, Hansen, Bodiemeister, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, Dullahan, Prospective, Trinneberg, Liason, Done Talking, and Optimizer.

The four new toss's are,
Daddy Long Legs - I was toying with the idea but i'm glad the draw made up my mind for me.
Rousing Sermon - When push comes to shove the horse is just too slow.
Daddy Knows Best - I know this horse has his backers. He is nicely bred and I gave him a long look. That being said I just don't see him passing the acid test on the first Saturday in May.
El Padrino - This was the one that may burn me. Oh well, thats the game. He was all over the track in the Fla Derby, is still somewhat green and I thought if he got his act together he could be dangerous. I still do but it's more a matter of having more intriguing horses than he. The work was not so good either and the post won't help him

The 5 remaining are Gemologist, Went The Day Well, Take Charge Indy, Sabercat and Alpha.
I have freely and willingly given my thought process and put my methods on the line. I've taken flak and thats ok but I wonder where everyone else has been with their picks, convictions and explanations? My hope is that I get people thinking outside the ordinary box and help steer new players to the proper way of approach. At least as I know it to be. I am Super Hot on Gemologist and very happy with the draw. I'm not twisting any arms or talking down to anyone. I've enjoyed the feedback for the most part. GL :cool:

[Tom]

So now I am up to an 11 horse box!

[School of Forego]

Knock yourself out T:lol:

[Tom]

Hey, $792 for a dime.....gutsy move.

[depalma113]

No dime bets in the derby.

[Smarty Cide]

Make a case for sabercat and went the day well

sell me

[Tom]

Oh crap!
My sure thing just out of my reach!

[DRIVEWAY]

Make a case for sabercat and went the day well

sell me

It's known as throwing darts.

The other three choices are valid selections.

[Tom]

Plodders who keep running 25 quarters get up to fill out tris and supers at 20-1, 30-1.......don't be looking for the fourth best horse to run fourth.

[sovereign]

Make a case for sabercat and went the day well

sell me

I could make a case for Went the Day Well.

[School of Forego]

Smart Cide wrote,
Make a case for sabercat and went the day well

sell me

SC, i'm not in the business of selling you until i've sold myself. I'm still juggling bro. I will say the obvious. WTDW is a distance loving horse who has carried some weight and draw a line through Sabercat's last race. He had a horror trip while loose speed was doing it's thing. Either way second is the best either will get.:cool:

[Grits]

No dime bets in the derby.

There are no dime superfectas allowed on any Oaks or Derby Day races. $1.00 minimum.

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/post-times-wager-menu

NOTE: Trifecta and Superfecta wagering on all races that qualify under Kentucky statutes. Daily Double and Super High-5 wagers are $1 minimum straight bets. On Oaks Day and Derby Day the Superfecta is a $1.00 minimum wager. Trifecta, Pick-3, Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers are $.50 minimum straight bets. The Pick-6 is a $2 minimum wager. The Exacta is a $2.00 minimum straight bet with $1.00 boxes and wheels.

[kelly2]

Just great. Give a break to the IRS and not the customers. Typical short sightedness by the racing czars. Sheesh.

[precocity]

Smart Cide wrote,
Make a case for sabercat and went the day well

sell me

SC, i'm not in the business of selling you until i've sold myself. I'm still juggling bro. I will say the obvious. WTDW is a distance loving horse who has carried some weight and draw a line through Sabercat's last race. He had a horror trip while loose speed was doing it's thing. Either way second is the best either will get.:cool:
wtdw is also a push button horse when asked he moves, looks a bit green though? like your pics so far forego G/L BRO :ThmbUp:

[precocity]

Make a case for sabercat and went the day well

sell me
usually you have a 50 to 1 plus come from well out the clouds to get 4th and that could be sabercat????

[Tom]

usually you have a 50 to 1 plus come from well out the clouds to get 4th and that could be sabercat????

Hey, you're reading my mind!

[Track Collector]

Regarding the methodology that I use to handicap, which has done reasonably well on past Kentucky Derby races, it is likely that the WINNER will come from the following group of horses. (The projected race performance number is in parentheses.)

#6 Bodemeister (113.0)
#8 Creative Cause (109.1)
#14 Hansen (108.7)
#15 Gemologist (108.2)
#4 Union Rags (108.0)

For value, I'm currently leaning on Creative Cause.

Another horse more likely to finish in the 2nd to 4th slots with some wagering value is #11 Alpha (107.9).

Still more to work out before arriving at my final wagering decisions on Saturday.


Chris

[Striker]

wtdw is also a push button horse when asked he moves, looks a bit green though? like your pics so far forego G/L BRO :ThmbUp:
I think WTDW is just the opposite of that. Why do you think Motion is putting blinkers on? Even JV has said that WTDW has shown in his works(usually with Crimson China)that when he is head and head with CC, he really doesn't want to go by, which is why they are adding a "small" blinker. The last work with the blinkers helped with this issue.

[iceknight]

The program on Xpressbet says TAKE CHARGE INDY : SCR ....anyone else confirm this?

[iceknight]

The program on Xpressbet says TAKE CHARGE INDY : SCR ....anyone else confirm this?

screenshot

[redshift1]

that's odd

[precocity]

I think WTDW is just the opposite of that. Why do you think Motion is putting blinkers on? Even JV has said that WTDW has shown in his works(usually with Crimson China)that when he is head and head with CC, he really doesn't want to go by, which is why they are adding a "small" blinker. The last work with the blinkers helped with this issue.
The last work with the blinkers helped with this issue? yep sure did now coming from the 13 post I think he can rate good, around the back stretch think he can improve position maybe 6-7 lengths off the pace then down the home stretch go all out..just my opinion on how i see the race playing out for wtdw. will go across on him also will play him on tri and super boxes.

[Striker]

The last work with the blinkers helped with this issue?
Why do trainers add blinkers to horses? Especially, to add them in the biggest race of the year. After the workout on 4-21 for WTDW here is what John V said-"After the wire, I asked him to do a little more to get away from the other horse (Crimson China),” the jockey said. “When he got next to the other horse he was just galloping and content to be next to the other horse and not doing enough.” Then they added blinkers for the workout on 4-28 and WTDW pulled away from Crimson China alot better during this work. Hence why they are leaving the blinks on for the KD.