7 tosses already, 4 more today

[School of Forego]

The School of Forego and our way of play do not need to wait on post positions to make some elementary toss's in the Kentucky Derby. At SOF when we toss we mean that we completely toss from W/P/S. The seven toss's given already are Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, Hansen, I'll Have Another, Done Talking and Bodiemeister.

Today we toss four more bringing the total to 11. Things start to get interesting now.

The toss's
Optimizer
Prospective
Trinneberg
Liason

With 11 out and 9 remaining there is finally light at the end of the tunnel. Plus having the winner in Gemologist we can now formulate a betting strategy based on post positions and late toss's. GL :cool:

[precocity]

went the day well very very live horse forego :cool:

[School of Forego]

went the day well very very live horse forego :cool:

Agreed.

I'd like to say that just because i've tossed many of the so called big guns it does not mean that I don't think they will have an important role to play here. In fact i'm counting on many of those to make their presence felt at key times in the race.
However as a bunch I see distance challeneged horses. If there is one think I get from the BC Juvenile is that they are all somewhat distance challenged.

[Scofield]

This maybe a problem for Creative Cause since he doesnt like a crowd..

"“He doesn’t like to be crowded,” said Harrington of Creative Cause. “In deep stretch (in the Santa Anita Derby), those horses were crowding him and then when the inside horse dropped off, he (Creative Cause) leveled off and actually came back on the winner. But when all three of them were head and head, he didn’t like it that much. He got smashed and annihilated at Del Mar in the (2011) Futurity (gr. I) and it’s affected him; he doesn’t like crowds, but obviously he’ll have to deal with it (in the Kentucky Derby)."

[Smarty Cide]

I dont see how you can toss bodemeister. thats just silly

[School of Forego]

Smarty Cide, What is sillier, tossing Bodemeister or having the ego to think you can break a trend that has been holding since the 1800's? Forget the trend, Bodiemeister was hard ridden to the wire just 3 weeks ago when he had it all his way. In Louisvile he will be in a speed shoot out and going extra distance. Who is silly now? GL:cool:

[Smarty Cide]

didnt big brown break an old trend?


also by tossing him dont you mean he can not finish in the money? cause id like to see the stats on the trend you are talking about finishing in the money

[Skanoochies]

My god man, in the first seven you tossed the triactor and super both. :lol:

[Striker]

didnt big brown break an old trend?



Big Brown broke the no horse had won the derby with 4 or fewer starts since 1918. Big Brown did race at 2 but only had 3 starts before the derby.

[Skanoochies]

Didn`t Funny Cide break a coule of streaks too? New York Bred as well as Gelding. :confused:

[sovereign]

didnt big brown break an old trend?


also by tossing him dont you mean he can not finish in the money? cause id like to see the stats on the trend you are talking about finishing in the money

Winning from post 20.

[precocity]

Big Brown broke the no horse had won the derby with 4 or fewer starts since 1918. Big Brown did race at 2 but only had 3 starts before the derby.
think he did it on turf at saratoga? he was a freak..

[The WindfallAngler]

I dont see how you can toss bodemeister. thats just silly

So much is riding, in terms of peoples' expectations. The draw alone could have a desperate impact.

But on the merits, Bodemeister looks capable of a decent finish, even if he does "bounce," struggle through traffic, race in a box. And slog through raindrenched Churchhill soil.

[School of Forego]

The WindfallAngler wrote,
But on the merits, Bodemeister looks capable of a decent finish, even if he does "bounce," struggle through traffic, race in a box. And slog through raindrenched Churchhill soil

Please tell me this is sarcasm.:confused: I'm a little slow but thats how I took it and thought it was great.

Skanoochies, as I said on a few other threads, the whole BC Juvenile looked distance challenged to me. I don't toss horses just to look for price. I toss them if they do not qualify under my system. Now as for price, i'd love to have a life changing score. It's been awhile lol.:cool:

[Producer]

went the day well very very live horse forego :cool:


Other than the connections, why so?

[fmhealth]

Mr Forego, I too think Gemologist has an excellent chance at taking this Derby. Where we differ is on his T/C potential.

As I'm sure you're aware, there has never been a T/C winner w/o a previous run at BEL. Unfortunately, Gemologist does not qualify. Although there's always a first time for all the rule-breakers.

In any event, best of luck on Cinco De Mayo!

[jjm323]

The WindfallAngler wrote,
But on the merits, Bodemeister looks capable of a decent finish, even if he does "bounce," struggle through traffic, race in a box. And slog through raindrenched Churchhill soil

Please tell me this is sarcasm.:confused: I'm a little slow but thats how I took it and thought it was great.

Skanoochies, as I said on a few other threads, the whole BC Juvenile looked distance challenged to me. I don't toss horses just to look for price. I toss them if they do not qualify under my system. Now as for price, i'd love to have a life changing score. It's been awhile lol.:cool:

Your system is intellectually challenged. And this is coming from someone who has hit the Derby Super before. The BC Juvenile is the Key Race for this years Derby, not a throwout.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46678

[lamboguy]

Mr Forego, I too think Gemologist has an excellent chance at taking this Derby. Where we differ is on his T/C potential.

As I'm sure you're aware, there has never been a T/C winner w/o a previous run at BEL. Unfortunately, Gemologist does not qualify. Although there's always a first time for all the rule-breakers.

In any event, best of luck on Cinco De Mayo!usually i would agree with you, but in this instance we have one of the best fields ever assembled for the kentucky derby. to me that means that every top horse will be trying as hard as a horse can try. only one horse gets that picture after running around the track that day. the way i look at it is that you will have a lot of discouraged horses after that race, and one very happy one that will run better in the next race. if GEMOLOGYST is the winner, he will have a big edge over the ones that finish behind him. if there is a horse that could beat him in his second triple crown race it would be a horse that skipped the derby. this would hold true for any other horse that might win in louisville this year. that's just the way that i see it.

personally i am probably not going to bet the derby for more than $100. as much as i like the horses that came out of the wood, i am probably going to put my $100 on DADDY NOSE BEST, only because i like the ASMUSSEN family and i know that his horse has a chance.

[sammy the sage]

usually i would agree with you, but in this instance we have one of the best fields ever assembled for the kentucky derby. to me that means that every top horse will be trying as hard as a horse can try. only one horse gets that picture after running around the track that day. the way i look at it is that you will have a lot of discouraged horses after that race, and one very happy one that will run better in the next race. if GEMOLOGYST is the winner, he will have a big edge over the ones that finish behind him. if there is a horse that could beat him in his second triple crown race it would be a horse that skipped the derby. this would hold true for any other horse that might win in louisville this year. that's just the way that i see it.

personally i am probably not going to bet the derby for more than $100. as much as i like the horses that came out of the wood, i am probably going to put my $100 on DADDY NOSE BEST, only because i like the ASMUSSEN family and i know that his horse has a chance.

so you've jumped off the "Wood" being the best race/horses...???

[lamboguy]

so you've jumped off the "Wood" being the best race/horses...???
no i still think that a horse out of the wood is going to win, i am only betting $100 on this race, to put things in perspective, if i like a 2 year old race in NEW YORK with all first time starters in it, i might bet $3000 or more on it.

[School of Forego]

fmhealth wrote,
Mr Forego, I too think Gemologist has an excellent chance at taking this Derby. Where we differ is on his T/C potential.

As I'm sure you're aware, there has never been a T/C winner w/o a previous run at BEL. Unfortunately, Gemologist does not qualify. Although there's always a first time for all the rule-breakers.

In any event, best of luck on Cinco De Mayo!

Thank you fmhealth and the best of luck to you also. I'm not ashamed to admit but a little embaressed that after nearly 50 years in the game I did NOT know about the Belmont / TC deal you mentioned. I think thats facsinating and I thank you for sharing. We all learn something new everyday in this game.
I'll have to think about how it will affect Gemologist and will get back to you after the Preakness.

Lamboguy mentioned that if Gemologist wins the derby he will be in great shape over the others. I agree. He also mentioned that unless a fresh horse in the Preakness beats him probably nobody can after a derby win. Here is where I really feel good because both Hansen and Bodiemeister SHOULD have skipped the derby where they have ZERO chance and be fresh and dangerous horses at Pimlico. They would have scared me there. I admit that. Their trainers and owners should be ashamed IMO. Not only do they not belong in the derby but they can ruin their horses there.
WWWD? What would Woody or Mack Miller do? THEY always put the horse first. They'd quit an owner who pushed them too hard. So all in all I feel if all goes as it should in Kentucky then we WILL have a horse going for the TC.

[School of Forego]

Sorry Producer I only just saw this now. The connections of course can't be overlooked. Especially when they openly said before the Spiral that this horse was better at that stage then Animal Kingdom. Well thats fine but this field will be tougher than AK's so we need more.
Where we get that imo is the races he had prior to the Spiral. He got something out of those races each and every time.
Despite the fact he was a maiden when he took the Spiral he already was a very consistent horse who carried a bit of weight too. For me it was the expolosion after he greenly changed leads in the Spiral. This is a distance loving horse if there ever was one. It wouldn't shock me if he gets rolling and makes his presence felt although second is the best I can give him in the derby. And he needs an uneventful trip of course. I believe he will skip the Preakness and then be a huge threat to Gemologist's TC try. We'll see.
GL :cool: