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Maximillion
04-30-2012, 11:31 PM
My record betting the derby(and stakes (#) horses in general) has been very poor.....very interested in thoughts on this horse from better players than me......

My initial impression almost immediately after the BG(coming from a "claimer" type of player) was that this is without a doubt a horse id be very interested in.... but again it was polytrack....gonna stay with that that first impression but interested in others opinion on this horse?

lamboguy
05-01-2012, 12:15 AM
My record betting the derby(and stakes (#) horses in general) has been very poor.....very interested in thoughts on this horse from better players than me......

My initial impression almost immediately after the BG(coming from a "claimer" type of player) was that this is without a doubt a horse id be very interested in.... but again it was polytrack....gonna stay with that that first impression but interested in others opinion on this horse?join the crowd with stake races. they are fun to watch but very hard to bet.

Dale Romans horse does look interesting, but i am not going to play him. i am going in the direction of ALPHA or GEMOLOGYST. the work on DADDY NOSE BEST was awesome. that's as far as i have got in this race so far. i didn't think that the SUNLAND DERBY was that great a race though. i have seen Steve Asmussen work miracles with horsea in the past. he just might get this horse to step up to the plate on saturday. he doesn't like to run his horses on saturday afternoon without a good chance.

Dahoss9698
05-01-2012, 10:21 AM
join the crowd with stake races. they are fun to watch but very hard to bet.

Dale Romans horse does look interesting, but i am not going to play him. i am going in the direction of ALPHA or GEMOLOGYST. the work on DADDY NOSE BEST was awesome. that's as far as i have got in this race so far. i didn't think that the SUNLAND DERBY was that great a race though. i have seen Steve Asmussen work miracles with horsea in the past. he just might get this horse to step up to the plate on saturday. he doesn't like to run his horses on saturday afternoon without a good chance.

What does any of this have to do with Dullahan?

Dahoss9698
05-01-2012, 10:25 AM
My record betting the derby(and stakes (#) horses in general) has been very poor.....very interested in thoughts on this horse from better players than me......

My initial impression almost immediately after the BG(coming from a "claimer" type of player) was that this is without a doubt a horse id be very interested in.... but again it was polytrack....gonna stay with that that first impression but interested in others opinion on this horse?

If the pace is as hot as it is expected to be, you have to give Dullahan a look because you at least know he will be coming late.

My issue with him and you touched on it, was the Blue Grass was on poly. He seems much more like a turf/synthetic horse to me than a dirt horse and his record points this out. He's going to make his run and he can definitely hit the board. But I just don't know if he is good enough to win.

He is a very nice horse and I expect big things out of him when they get him back to turf but an on the board finish seems to be his ceiling IMO.

School of Forego
05-01-2012, 10:35 AM
Dullahan is a toss and a good canidate to bounce. The record of Keenland synthetic to Louisville has been horrible as well. A combination of synthetic and time between races for this level.:cool:

cj
05-01-2012, 10:36 AM
I don't worry as much about the surface because prior to the Blue Grass, I had his Juvenile as his best race, better than the prior wins on other surfaces. He has improved virtually every time out regardless of surface.

Tom
05-01-2012, 10:42 AM
I heard he is not looking all that impressive at CD so far.
Have not seen his work yet, just hearing stuff.

gm10
05-01-2012, 10:59 AM
Dullahan is a toss and a good canidate to bounce. The record of Keenland synthetic to Louisville has been horrible as well. A combination of synthetic and time between races for this level.:cool:

I hold the opposite opinion.

burnsy
05-01-2012, 11:02 AM
i agree with everything people are saying. his record on dirt is pretty bad. prior races at CD are not that great so i'm not surprised hes working poorly. the theory of him hitting the board closing late is probably the ceiling for him. unless that last race was huge step forward.....i agree the blue grass results have pretty much been a complete toss.....until one wins it. the winner of that race has been a non factor in almost every derby since they went poly. if he is 20-1 that might be one thing but hes getting alot of hype....so i doubt it. probably an underlay.

Robert Fischer
05-01-2012, 11:09 AM
I didn't pick Drosselmeyer to win the Classic last year, and I haven't picked Dullahan to win this Derby.

If he gets the right setup, he can make up ground late. While he's similar to Drosselmeyer in that regard, his style is different. While Drosselmeyer drives home, Dullahan is a taller horse and never appears to moving as well as he is.

He is a relatively late bloomer and has just started to add muscle this year, but he also popped a splint after the palm beach and there was that goofy gallop out in the Bluegrass where we either blame Desormeaux's antics or question the horse's soundness. Then there is trying to decipher the Bluegrass which on paper appears to be a very fast pace.

precocity
05-01-2012, 11:49 AM
I heard he is not looking all that impressive at CD so far.
Have not seen his work yet, just hearing stuff.
I know the jockey pulls him up right after the wire but it looks very strange for him not to gallop out?

Greyfox
05-01-2012, 12:12 PM
I know the jockey pulls him up right after the wire but it looks very strange for him not to gallop out?

I agree. To me it looked like Dullahan was veering out and tired after the wire.
When I ventured that idea on another thread in this forum, a response came back that Romans had stated that the horse had so much run left in him that Desormeaux had to pull him up for fear of not getting him stopped (or words to that effect).

I know Romans knows more about his horses than I do, but the absence of any gallop out was worrisome.

Striker
05-01-2012, 01:36 PM
I agree. To me it looked like Dullahan was veering out and tired after the wire.
When I ventured that idea on another thread in this forum, a response came back that Romans had stated that the horse had so much run left in him that Desormeaux had to pull him up for fear of not getting him stopped (or words to that effect).

I know Romans knows more about his horses than I do, but the absence of any gallop out was worrisome.
That was probably me that said that Greyfox, and this was the message that Romans told the media when questioned about Dullahan after the wire. Some other interesting quotes to take with a grain of salt are that Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing said that they are way more confident this year with Dullahan than they were last year with Paddy. Romans also was elated with the Dullahan's last work, and was quoted as saying "lets put the tack on him and let him take a lap" after that workout.

letswastemoney
05-01-2012, 02:12 PM
Couldn't you toss his maiden losses at Churchill because of the short distance?

1GCFAN
05-01-2012, 08:03 PM
Dullahan was going to be a toss (Blue Grass theory). But I've watched that race over and over and they way be moved thru the field then simply exploded in deep stretch is so impressive. Having said that he was beating allowance horses and a spent Hanson. I think he can get a share if Jockey Kent is race riddin.

School of Forego
05-01-2012, 09:24 PM
Hansen and Dullahan were both totaly spent at the wire. Don't listen to this stuff about him being TOO full of run so that Kent just had to pull him up to save him.:lol: Yeah, and Big Brown needed to be pulled up too in the Belmont.
Don't forget the dirt factor either. This horse is a money pit for those dreaming of the perfect trip and the extra distance. It usually doesn't work out that way. GL :cool:

Maximillion
05-02-2012, 08:20 PM
Hansen and Dullahan were both totaly spent at the wire. Don't listen to this stuff about him being TOO full of run so that Kent just had to pull him up to save him.:lol: Yeah, and Big Brown needed to be pulled up too in the Belmont.
Don't forget the dirt factor either. This horse is a money (#) pit for those dreaming of the perfect trip and the extra distance. It usually doesn't work out that way. GL :cool:

I dont know what to make of the way he pulled up or the "explanation"....but
he was walking fine afterwards.....if he was "spent" would it have any effect at all on his walk or only his gallop?

School of Forego
05-02-2012, 08:40 PM
Only his gallop.:cool:

Viruss
05-03-2012, 07:24 PM
Dullahan reminds me if Brillant Speed Great late kick in last years BG no show in the derby...lots of negitives seems like a toss..


Earl J

Tom
05-03-2012, 08:31 PM
I know the jockey pulls him up right after the wire but it looks very strange for him not to gallop out?

When Kent D is on a horse, the last think I look for is any sense.
Maybe he was practicing for the Belmont.

letswastemoney
05-04-2012, 02:07 AM
Dullahan reminds me if Brillant Speed Great late kick in last years BG no show in the derby...lots of negitives seems like a toss..


Earl J
Brilliant Speed was bred for turf wasn't he? I think with Dullahan's good finish in the Juvenile and his relation to the 2009 winner, there's reason to believe he is fine on dirt.

davew
05-04-2012, 02:26 AM
He is one of my top 8 contenders