.Prime Power

[bigga 1]

Does anyone using bris uses (prime power) to start their handicapping process? and if so does make a big difference.

[Turkoman]

I've been using Brisnet PP's for a while now, but pay no attention to Prime Power at all.

[rico]

Bigga, your better off going for the top 4 betting choices from the tote, you will be on more solid ground.:cool:

[FrankieFigs]

The only times I have (rarely) used it is in a race when the top rated horse has a 10-15 point advantage. Gives me more confidence to key horse with some longer odds underneath in exacta/tri combos. Has worked better on turf than dirt/synthentic surfaces.

Like I stated, this situation comes along rarely and doesn't pay real huge ($50-$150 range), but I play them 3x-4x.

[Turkoman]

Does anyone using bris uses (prime power) to start their handicapping process? and if so does make a big difference.

Playing the horse with the top Prime Power is just like playing the top Speed Figure horse. In the long run, you end up like the other 98-99% of horseplayers; consistently losing money.

[JustRalph]

I have a UDM in Jcapper that flags the top 2 prime power horses when they are not the top two picks based on the morning line.

every once in a great while the top ppower horses get off at a decent price, but usually there is something in their PP"S that make them look dirty.

I have made some decent prices this way, but there have to be other factors to point toward these horses. Usually the crowd is all over them

[bigga 1]

Those of you who use bris can do your own research to see how accurate this is.......85% of the winners come from the top five prime powers and that over a 200 race sample.Having said that there is still of handicapping to be done (maiden races included).

[iwearpurple]

Those of you who use bris can do your own research to see how accurate this is.......85% of the winners come from the top five prime powers and that over a 200 race sample.Having said that there is still of handicapping to be done (maiden races included).

At some tracks (CA), I can throw a dart and hit 85% winners. Try it youself. In 5 or 6 horse fields, it will work.

[HUSKER55]

If you think about it, I don't think it is that great a value. 85% of the winners come from their top 5 picks. Any 10 horse field means a 50-50 shot at worst.

Everyone here can do that.

JMHO




husker55
my ship...I sail it

[Robert Goren]

Prime Power is one things that almost every Bris user looks at one time. It picks enough winners to make one wonder if with a few adjustments that it could be turned into a spot play system. I tried a few years ago and failed. That doesn't mean it can't be done, but I have never heard of anyone that did.

[Johnny V]

In the last 105 dirt races that I have handicapped, mostly AQU and GP, when at that time I was keeping track of Prime Power, the top two Prime Power horses won 46% of those particular races.
If I had bet both of them with a 60/40 ratio I would have ended up with a $1.40 net or about a 30% negative ROI. Small sample of course and only the races I was interested in but I would think that those similar type of results could probably be expected in the long run.
I think glancing at them to start the handicapping process would not hurt anything but to use them as a betting tool, at least in the way I tracked them would not lead to any long term profits.

[Jay Trotter]

Does anyone using bris uses (prime power) to start their handicapping process? and if so does make a big difference.I start my handicapping of a race, first by understanding the Track Bias Stats -- is there a style that is dominant.

My second step is to analyze the top 2 Prime Power horses in the race. This just gives me a baseline understanding of the general level of ability required to be in contention. Probably 90% of the time this is sufficient to begin my elimination process of non-contenders. Sometimes I have to go a bit deeper before beginning that process.

At the end of the day, I really don't use the Prime Power to make my final selections, just to start the analysis of the race.

[raybo]

Bris Prime Power, regarding a single factor method, has a good hit rate historically. This, however, is public knowledge and garners a good portion of the public's money, resulting in lower odds more often than not. So, as a single factor method it is not profitable.

However, using Prime Power within your method can be very powerful, if your other factors are less "obvious". Prime Power alone will get you a decent hit rate, and then when combined with other factors that offer good value, will get you a decent, profitable method.

We have found, through researching in AllDataBase, that including the top 2 ranked Prime Power horses in our "setups/models" is an excellent starting factor for creating profitable setups, due to their historically good hit rate, those setups can then be recalled and applied to the user's daily handicapping.

Personally, in my method of handicapping/wagering, I do not use Prime Power in the handicapping portion of the method at all. However, Prime Power is very valuable in understanding where public support for horses, that "don't figure", is coming from. When high public support is present in low priced horses, that I don't think warrant the support, this situation often leads to exceptional value on other horses.

[bigga 1]

I said that 85% of the winners in the 200 race sample were coming from the top (5) not the top (2) just a bit of handicapping involved to sort out the negatives...........trust me it works......pay closer attention to it and you'll see,especially when you can eliminate the top two or three.Just wanted to clarify what i meant,

[deathandgravity]

In my completely un-scientific database of AQU, DMR, WOX, KEE, SAR, BEL, SA & HOL over the past year:

...........................Starts...Hit........... ROI
Dom Prime Power: 1470 38.78% -13.86%
Best Prime Power: 5373 30.54% -16.15%

This does not reflect all races at those tracks.

I think Big Brown is the only Derby winner to come out of the top 4 or 5 Best Prime Power in recent memory. (I maybe wrong & often am)

[raybo]

In my completely un-scientific database of AQU, DMR, WOX, KEE, SAR, BEL, SA & HOL over the past year:

...........................Starts...Hit........... ROI
Dom Prime Power: 1470 38.78% -13.86%
Best Prime Power: 5373 30.54% -16.15%

This does not reflect all races at those tracks.

I think Big Brown is the only Derby winner to come out of the top 4 or 5 Best Prime Power in recent memory. (I maybe wrong & often am)

Looks about right to me. Good hit rate but ultimately unprofitable.

[Tom]

Although good to know that for exactas/trifectas.
38% wins? What is the place percentage?
Might be talking about close to half of all exacta finishes.

[deathandgravity]

Although good to know that for exactas/trifectas.
38% wins? What is the place percentage?
Might be talking about close to half of all exacta finishes.

That was win %.

[DRIVEWAY]

In my completely un-scientific database of AQU, DMR, WOX, KEE, SAR, BEL, SA & HOL over the past year:

...........................Starts...Hit........... ROI
Dom Prime Power: 1470 38.78% -13.86%
Best Prime Power: 5373 30.54% -16.15%

This does not reflect all races at those tracks.

I think Big Brown is the only Derby winner to come out of the top 4 or 5 Best Prime Power in recent memory. (I maybe wrong & often am)

If you restrict your analysis to dirt races and exclude 2 yr old maiden races, you will be surprised at the win %. I think Bris did a study of 100,000 races and compiled these percentages. Originally Gap 10+ was profitable until the word go out.
Gap 10 pts+ -- 55%
Gap 6 pts+ -- 46%
Gap 3 pts+ -- 39%
Best -- 31%

[Tom]

That was win %.

Duh. :blush:

[Light]

The 2nd ranked PP horses just swept the pk4 at MNR. Paid $$388 for $2.

No doubt PP is a losing bet as a stand alone factor. But in combination with other factors or other types of bets, it can be a formidable tool.

[toetoe]

... a formidable tool.



I represent that remark, sir. :mad: