BC Juvenile

[Cholly]

This year’s Derby will have nine starters who also raced in the 2011 Breeders Cup: Union Rags (5-1 on Watchmaker's projected ML), Creative Cause (6), Dullahan (10), Hansen (10), Alpha (15), Take Charge Indy (15), Daddy Long Legs (30), Daddy Nose Best (30), and Prospective (50). I won’t question the odds of any specific horse, but considered as a group these strike me as a massive underlay.

If you sum the odds of the above nine horses and back out the track take, it suggests a 60% probability that a runner from last year’s Juvenile will win the Derby. This notion flies in the face of recent history--the Juvenile has perennially proven to be a hugely negative-key race. In the most recent 10 Derbies, only two were won by horses who had participated in the Juvenile…and one of those two (Mine That Bird) clumped up on a sloppy track in one of the slowest times in recent Derby history.

Here’s what interests me most: the horses named above will be played just as heavily in the exotics as in the win pool. But seven of the last ten Derby trifectas have been completed sans any horses with BC experience. If this prevailing trend holds, this year’s trifecta could yield a handsome sum for an arguably expected result.

[cj]

I realize only two won, but from how many?

[maddog42]

Someone on here called it the key race of all time. Thats no joke. Even for a Juvenile this seems like a lot of winners came out of that race.

[burnsy]

It is a key race this year, but i would never call it the key race of all time. Most years its the key negative. One of them might win but as usual there are players that have seemed to have caught up to and may be better than those horses NOW. There are 3 strong contenders that skipped the breeders cup and between them they probably have just as good of a chance at winning. gemologist, bodemeister and i'll have another ran very strong preps and between the 3 i have a feeling that they have just as much if not more of a chance at winning as the 9 entered from the cup..........especially if recent history holds true. people do not rush their 2 yo's into the breeders cup...this is why its more important to know whose running good in the last 6 weeks over who did what in the breeders cup juve. the 3 i just mentioned are running good NOW not last november and thats the problem with the juvenile......2yo's grow up and new players wait until NOW. the hype around this race and the "talk" is just that "talk". who cares about last november.....what about the last month or so???? thats what you have to figure out. these horses change leaps and bounds in the time between november and derby time and so do the players.

[School of Forego]

It's a key race for mediocrity. Uncle Mo bettered the time by many lenghts. They have since taken turns beating each other. When horses are together at the wire it shows there is no one dominating horse. It's a key race to toss.:cool:

[depalma113]

Last year was the first year of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint. So I think you need to factor in how many sprinters that would have normally been in the Juvenile didn't go.

[Robert Fischer]

1.hansen
2.union rags
3.creative cause
4.dullahan
5.take charge indy

These guys have stayed healthy and proven themselves at a distance.

a case could be made for Alpha and others as well.

[Cholly]

I realize only two won, but from how many?

As to how many BC graduates actually started in The Derby, that ‘s a good question to which I don’t have the answer (maybe someone else could supply it). For me, the pertinent question is this: Does participation in the Juvenile help a horse’s chances in The Derby, harm them, or not have much effect?

The intuitive expectation is a positive correlation. These horses have already stamped themselves at the fore of their class in athleticism and determination; in most cases they benefit from the care of leading trainers and supportive Owners, and have the opportunity to retain the services of the best jockeys. I would expect the effort to be foundation building, and experiencing the frenzy of the Breeder’s Cup Day to be useful preparation for the super-charged atmosphere of The Derby.

But the empirical evidence suggests that the counter-intuitive is the actuality. 125 colts participated in the BC Juvenile from 2001-2010. Following those races, almost all were pointed with single-minded determination toward the following year’s Derby. The result of the advantages and efforts of those 125 was two wins, one place, and one show. Noting that, one might consider it is at least possible that, for reasons unknown, a two-year-old imposting 122 pounds for 8.5 furlongs under BC conditions compromises their ability to be competitive in The Derby.

Ten races/125 horses is a pathetically small and unreliable sample. The next ten Derbies may get crushed by BC graduates, turning the Juvenile Delinquent hypothesis on its ear. But if 60% of the win money this year is going to the BC horses, it’s likely they’ll be included on 90% of the trifecta tickets…to my way of thinking, being part of that 90% is taking the short end of it.

[maddog42]

It is a key race this year, but i would never call it the key race of all time. Most years its the key negative. One of them might win but as usual there are players that have seemed to have caught up to and may be better than those horses NOW. There are 3 strong contenders that skipped the breeders cup and between them they probably have just as good of a chance at winning. gemologist, bodemeister and i'll have another ran very strong preps and between the 3 i have a feeling that they have just as much if not more of a chance at winning as the 9 entered from the cup..........especially if recent history holds true. people do not rush their 2 yo's into the breeders cup...this is why its more important to know whose running good in the last 6 weeks over who did what in the breeders cup juve. the 3 i just mentioned are running good NOW not last november and thats the problem with the juvenile......2yo's grow up and new players wait until NOW. the hype around this race and the "talk" is just that "talk". who cares about last november.....what about the last month or so???? thats what you have to figure out. these horses change leaps and bounds in the time between november and derby time and so do the players.

I WOULD call it the Key Derby race of all time because it is. The last time you had a key BC juvie this strong you had Street Sense win BOTH races. I don't think that will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me. If you had taken those top five finishers from that BC race and bet all of them on every start, you would have made a tidy profit. Only one of those horses would you have lost money
on (Hansen). The prices wouldn have been great, but you would have gotten
Take Charge Indy at $17.40.


"Only Street Sense, the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby winner, has swept the two races. Of the other 13 Breeders' Cup Juvenile champions to attempt it, only two have even taken third in the Derby."

The last time this many entrants came from a BC Juvenile was the Street Sense year. Kinda scary. Since street sense only had 6 entrants from the BC
juvenile and this year there will probably be nine.

Now lets examine why this 2 year old race hasn"t been more successful predicting KD winners. Why should it? I'd like to see any handicapper, Las Vegas Bookie or God himself predict the winner of the race 6 months ahead of time or get it by picking 13 horses . Rapidly improving 3 year olds are the biggest reason and sheer numbers are the other that the BC juvy can't pick but 1 winner in 20+ years. I personally don't think it is much of a negative. By my count there are about 120 horses that might be figured to earn enough money and qualify for the Derby at the beginning of january . Traditionally only 3 or 4 BC juvie horses qualify. Not too good of odds is it?
Given numbers like that, I would have expected the BC to pick 2 or 3 winners
in that 27 years. Big Deal. Not that far from what statistics would predict.
From January through mid april there are 24 stakes races that feed or prep into the Derby. I guessed 140 horses are being culled down to 20, but it might be more.

I would take those horses that don't come from the BC Juvie too. In the long run it would be a sucker bet.
http://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/26/2975873/kentucky-derby-2012-breeders-cup-juvenile

I posted this link for BC Juvenile numbers.

[cj]

As to how many BC graduates actually started in The Derby, that ‘s a good question to which I don’t have the answer (maybe someone else could supply it). For me, the pertinent question is this: Does participation in the Juvenile help a horse’s chances in The Derby, harm them, or not have much effect?

The intuitive expectation is a positive correlation. These horses have already stamped themselves at the fore of their class in athleticism and determination; in most cases they benefit from the care of leading trainers and supportive Owners, and have the opportunity to retain the services of the best jockeys. I would expect the effort to be foundation building, and experiencing the frenzy of the Breeder’s Cup Day to be useful preparation for the super-charged atmosphere of The Derby.

But the empirical evidence suggests that the counter-intuitive is the actuality. 125 colts participated in the BC Juvenile from 2001-2010. Following those races, almost all were pointed with single-minded determination toward the following year’s Derby. The result of the advantages and efforts of those 125 was two wins, one place, and one show. Noting that, one might consider it is at least possible that, for reasons unknown, a two-year-old imposting 122 pounds for 8.5 furlongs under BC conditions compromises their ability to be competitive in The Derby.

Ten races/125 horses is a pathetically small and unreliable sample. The next ten Derbies may get crushed by BC graduates, turning the Juvenile Delinquent hypothesis on its ear. But if 60% of the win money this year is going to the BC horses, it’s likely they’ll be included on 90% of the trifecta tickets…to my way of thinking, being part of that 90% is taking the short end of it.

I honestly don't think the number pointed to the Derby after the BC Juvy is anywhere near 125, though of course that is tough to prove now.

[maclr11]

Would it suddenly make these horses contenders if they didnt run in the Juvenile to you? How is it any different than running in the Hollywood Futurity or the Remsen or even the Norfolk Stakes. These are all two turn races for two year olds that are hard on them. The Juvenile is just another race. I'm sure if you looked up the stats of horses who won the Remsen how many have came back to win the Derby. The answer is two, Go for Gin and Thunder Gulch. Bluegrass Cat ran second in the Derby.

If we renamed the Juvenile, Open Allowance for 2yo's going 1 1/16 would it change the horses form? Do the horses know if they ran in the juvenile or not.

Horses grow up, dont grow as fast. The horses who win on Derby day aren't always the best 4 yo's. Why would we expect the top 2 yo's to stay the top horses when the top 3yo's dont always stay on top.

[maddog42]

You might notice that some owners and farms won't run their horses at 2. There
are quite a few good 2 year olds that never get the chance to run in the BC Juvy. The above link gives an example. Purely numbers explains this lack of success.


http://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/26/2975873/kentucky-derby-2012-breeders-cup-juvenile

[Tom]

How many horses came out of the BCJ and won GR1 stakes this year, so far?

7, 9......not sure the latest.
Hardly a bunch of broken horses.

[maddog42]

How many horses came out of the BCJ and won GR1 stakes this year, so far?

7, 9......not sure the latest.
Hardly a bunch of broken horses.

You are right. That BC juvy bunch was much tougher than normal. I'd say their odds are about 60-40 to win it this year and normally it would be about 12%.

[Striker]

I realize only two won, but from how many?
I did the homework and the answer is 71.

[redshift1]

8-9 starters from the 2011 BCJ should make the post this Saturday which is health wise, pretty amazing. Could be a banner year for future studs as well, I wonder how many of this years 3YR old crop will command $25K or above in their first year at stud? Should one of the Derby horses dominate the 2012 racing season who knows what his initial stud fee might be?


.

[andtheyreoff]

It's a key race for mediocrity. Uncle Mo bettered the time by many lenghts. They have since taken turns beating each other. When horses are together at the wire it shows there is no one dominating horse. It's a key race to toss.:cool:

1st place- Hansen WON Gotham (G3), 2ND Holy Bull (G2), Blue Grass (G1)

2nd place- Union Rags WON Fountain of Youth (G2), 3RD Florida Derby (G1)

3rd place- Creative Cause WON San Felipe (G2), 2ND Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3RD San Vicente (G2)

4th place- Dullahan WON Blue Grass (G1), 2ND Palm Beach (G3)

5th place- Take Charge Indy WON Florida Derby (G1)

6th place- Crusade No graded placings since

7th place- Fort Loudon No graded placings since

8th place- Optimizer 2ND Rebel (G2)

9th place- Speightscity 2ND Withers (G3)

10th place- Drill WON San Vicente (G2)

11th place- Alpha WON Withers (G3), 2ND Wood Memorial (G1)

12th place- Daddy Long Legs WON UAE Derby (G2)

13th place- Prospective WON Tampa Bay Derby (G2), Sam Davis (G3)

So when 11 out of the 13 starters have either won or placed in a graded stakes in the last five months, any horseplayer with a functioning brain would call this a key race, and certainly not a "key race for mediocrity", when the race has been so productive.

[School of Forego]

antheyreoff, you want to take a race that has been historiclly horrible in TC results and put your money there then by all means go for it. These are not lousy horses. When I say medicore I mean there is no dominance. I'd expect a few to win races and this year has been good i'll admit but show me the dominant horse in the crop? He is NOT from that race. If he was he'd have shown it already. So they will take turns as have the last 9 TC race winners.

Now if you want to think out of the box and not be a folower (i'll bet you play beyers) then you will look for the horse who has been brought along and has yet to peak. All these horses were asked to peak in the BC. I have found that horse. You may not agree but if only you change your approach you'll be ahead of the game in the long run.:sleeping:

[ArlJim78]

get a grip, who exactly has Gemologist dominated?
All I can see is a life and death win over Alpha was was trounced last year by some of the horses who came from the juvy like Hansen and Union Rags.


edit: I guess he did dominate Currency Swap in the GP allowance race

[School of Forego]

Arl Jim, I don't remember how many horses he has met but he's dominated them all. He not only beat Alpha but another unbeaten horse 1st time out. The winner of the Jerome was another dominated by Gemologist who came back to score there. Anyway, the way I play is to look for what WILL be. Not what already was. New people to the game need to understand that. Once they do it changes everything. A whole new world opens up. Prices get better. I want my horse to peak Saturday. I don't care who beat who in a race from last year.:bang:

[salty]

antheyreoff, you want to take a race that has been historiclly horrible in TC results and put your money there then by all means go for it. These are not lousy horses. When I say medicore I mean there is no dominance. I'd expect a few to win races and this year has been good i'll admit but show me the dominant horse in the crop? He is NOT from that race. If he was he'd have shown it already. So they will take turns as have the last 9 TC race winners.

Now if you want to think out of the box and not be a folower (i'll bet you play beyers) then you will look for the horse who has been brought along and has yet to peak. All these horses were asked to peak in the BC. I have found that horse. You may not agree but if only you change your approach you'll be ahead of the game in the long run.:sleeping:


Have you not seen the history of the wood and the Derby?

[School of Forego]

Salty, as the money has been spread around in recent years, races like the SA Derby and Wood haven't had the greatest success like in years past. I would still take my chances, even with the synthetic Bluegrass 3 weeks before than I would taking horses from the Juvenile. I should add that I have no particular ideal prep race. The history of the horse tellls ME all I need to know. From there I take the high percentage shot from wherever it may be. I may have preferences but the horse himself overules all that.

[Bettowin]

get a grip, who exactly has Gemologist dominated?
All I can see is a life and death win over Alpha was was trounced last year by some of the horses who came from the juvy like Hansen and Union Rags.


edit: I guess he did dominate Currency Swap in the GP allowance race


Not going to say Gemologist dominated in the Wood but when he got clear he started looking around and his ears went up looking for someone to run against. Once he saw Alpha he went back to work and that horse wasn't getting past him so IMO it wasn't life and death and probably the opposite if watched closely.

Did you see something different?

[School of Forego]

Bettowin, finally, someone who watched the same race as me. Thats what i'm talkin about:jump:

[ArlJim78]

Not going to say Gemologist dominated in the Wood but when he got clear he started looking around and his ears went up looking for someone to run against. Once he saw Alpha he went back to work and that horse wasn't getting past him so IMO it wasn't life and death and probably the opposite if watched closely.

Did you see something different?
what I see is that there was a lot of urging by the rider going around the turn with very little to show for it. I like to see a snappy response when the rider starts asking and scrubbing on the neck. as they straightened he did finally manage to put away the field, but I saw a horse that had to work pretty hard to earn the victory.

not a bad effort by any stretch but I'm not dazzled either especially in view of the time. I just commented because of how school of insanity keeps insisting that the horse lays over the field and will be the next undefeated triple crown winner.
is he one of the ones with a solid chance? sure, but I prefer others.

[School of Forego]

ArlJim, could it have been the strong wind or the outside trip that made it seem he was not taking off right away? Maybe it was the fact that it was only second time out? Also the speed went on to win the Jerome so he was no slouch either. One other thing was he altered course and cut to the rail. All things we must consider and I have. Gemologist is a push button horse that can be placed anywhere. He'll show that move 3rd time out in Kentucky imo. GL:cool:

[Bettowin]

what I see is that there was a lot of urging by the rider going around the turn with very little to show for it. I like to see a snappy response when the rider starts asking and scrubbing on the neck. as they straightened he did finally manage to put away the field, but I saw a horse that had to work pretty hard to earn the victory.

not a bad effort by any stretch but I'm not dazzled either especially in view of the time. I just commented because of how school of insanity keeps insisting that the horse lays over the field and will be the next undefeated triple crown winner.
is he one of the ones with a solid chance? sure, but I prefer others.

Thanks for your input. Good luck Saturday.

[Sundown]

How's this for consitency:

Anyway, the way I play is to look for what WILL be. Not what already was.

The history of the horse tellls ME all I need to know.

[School of Forego]

How's this for consitency:

Sundown, thank you for showing enough interest to the point where you read through my stuff to cull out a few lines in a weak attempt to embaress me.:) Of course this reeks of taking things out of context. And btw I don't embarress easily.
So lets look at your brilliant statements. "The way I play is to look for what WILL be. Not what already was". Then you have me saying "The history of the horse tells ME all I need to know"
So just how is this inconsistent? Even with you taking things out of context, how is it inconsistent?

I am looking for something to happen today and I use the horse's history to predict that. How else would my vast experience be useful in predicting if I don't know the horse's history? You really are a lightweight, aren't you? To make things a little clearer for you and those new to the game, I don't look at the history of ANY horse and say ooh and ahh, if he did this yesterday he'll do it again today. This is what all the people that are calling the BC Juvenile a key race are doing. I need to see a horse's history but my experience and various systems that come into play are always reading BETWEEN the lines. Whatever system trumps the situation, whatever system in my arsenal I decide to use ALL have me looking for what will be tommorow, not what was yesterday.:sleeping:

[burnsy]

It is a key race this year, but i would never call it the key race of all time. Most years its the key negative. One of them might win but as usual there are players that have seemed to have caught up to and may be better than those horses NOW. There are 3 strong contenders that skipped the breeders cup and between them they probably have just as good of a chance at winning. gemologist, bodemeister and i'll have another ran very strong preps and between the 3 i have a feeling that they have just as much if not more of a chance at winning as the 9 entered from the cup..........especially if recent history holds true. people do not rush their 2 yo's into the breeders cup...this is why its more important to know whose running good in the last 6 weeks over who did what in the breeders cup juve. the 3 i just mentioned are running good NOW not last november and thats the problem with the juvenile......2yo's grow up and new players wait until NOW. the hype around this race and the "talk" is just that "talk". who cares about last november.....what about the last month or so???? thats what you have to figure out. these horses change leaps and bounds in the time between november and derby time and so do the players.
so much for the "key race of all time theory" 2 of the three i mentioned ran one, two....niether ran in the breeders cup juvenile...the breeders cup juvenile is still just a race for 2 yo's....the best usually come along later.