Beyer Embarassed by "Missing War Emblem"

[maddog42]

Ten year anniversary of War Emblem winning the Derby. Payed $43 to win. According to Beyer he had the highest speed rating coming into the race of 112 and it was higher by several lengths. I know this is 2020 hindsight, but how did we let that horse go off at 20-1? I can see missing Mine That Bird and many other past Derby winners, but this was amazing. I guess I went along with all the Harlans Holiday hype like everybody else. War Emblem you may remember stomped a hole in that field winning by 4.

The pace (73.03) of War Emblems victory in the Illinois Derby that year threw me off. Also that was not as "sexy" a victory as the Wood, or Arkansas or Florida Derby. Nothing beats speed on the lead like that. How many times has the Derby been won wire to wire?

Don't let the hype throw you off this year.

[Sinner369]

How many times has the Derby been won wire to wire?

That was the problem........not too many horses can go wire to wire in the Kentucky Derby........in the last 10 years?.......only Big Brown and War Emblem......!

I believe Barbaro was close to the pace but did not lead........that's why is so tough to lead wire to wire!

It is always easy to spot the winner after the race is over!

[Turkoman]

How many times has the Derby been won wire to wire?

That was the problem........not too many horses can go wire to wire in the Kentucky Derby........in the last 10 years?.......only Big Brown and War Emblem......!

I believe Barbaro was close to the pace but did not lead........that's why is so tough to lead wire to wire!

It is always easy to spot the winner after the race is over!

Maybe you're talking about the Florida Derby, but Big Brown did not go wire-to-wire in the KY Derby. I think he was like 4th for a good portion of the race.

Turkoman

[goforgin]

I was embarrassed too. Went to the IL Derby that year. Old Sportsman Park. Witnessed War Emblem first hand. Didn't have a nickel on him in the Derby! :blush:

[judd]

had $100 to win $50 place ;)

[Bullet Plane]

Well,

War Emblem:

1) Won the Ill Derby..not known for producing Derby winners..race seen as not "classy"

2) Was a speed horse...he is the only speed horse to win on the lead in the last 20-30 years that I can think of.... at least going back to Thunder Gulch in 1995...

3) Speed figure was not respected ...seen as possibly ...abberant ..his highest Beyer before the Ill Derby was 98, or bounce candidate if you did like the speed figure

so on speed, class, and pace...

the horse did not make any handicapping sense

[sovereign]

Buddha was also the speed. And so was Medaglia d'Oro. Buddha was scratched after some strange injury had occurred on the day of the Derby. Medaglia d'Oro stumbled at the break and soon found himself pressed against the rail under the sheer size and weight of the field. Thus, War Emblem had no challengers to go with him.

[illinoisbred]

How many times has the Derby been won wire to wire?

That was the problem........not too many horses can go wire to wire in the Kentucky Derby........in the last 10 years?.......only Big Brown and War Emblem......!

I believe Barbaro was close to the pace but did not lead........that's why is so tough to lead wire to wire!

It is always easy to spot the winner after the race is over!
Besides War Emblem,since the early 80's onward,I remember just Spend A Buck and Winning Colors...can't recall any others.

[Vinnie]

I can honestly say that I had War Emblem in the Derby that year. I saw a handful of scenarios in that race and the main one that seemed to prevail with me was that I could see War Emblem getting out on front and it would be "Katie Bar the Door." That horse when he was in form was like a Black Jet. He possessed a phenomenal cruising speed that would make most other horses struggle in his wake and he also had the ability to kick it in late. :) That was why I was so looking forward to the Pamplemousse running a couple of years back, but, unfortunately, like many others before him and since he didn't quite make it to the gate on that first Saturday in May. He was never quite the same again... :confused:

It was a beautiful thing to watch. I am just glad that I saw the race that way.

Have a super day everyone. Can't wait for this coming Saturday.

[Turkoman]

Besides War Emblem,since the early 80's onward,I remember just Spend A Buck and Winning Colors...can't recall any others.

Yeah, I definitely remember those. How about Swale in 1984? That was a year before Spend A Buck did it.

[maddog42]

I reread my initial post and thought some people are going to think I am knocking Beyer. Not at all. This was an honest admission by Beyer. His figures had him best but he didn't bet him. James Quinn wrote that many of his "pro"
handicapping buddies missed the horse too, and were "slapping themselves in the face". Quinn also backed the horse in the Illinois Derby at 6-1, but not in the Derby at 20-1. This horse was very bettable and did making handicapping sense, thats all I am saying.

[GaryG]

I think it was in 1993 when the Ark Derby was won by Rockamundo with a ridiculously high Beyer figure. It was so high that the race became the career best for the first four finishers. Sea Hero won the Derby off a much more modest BSF figure earned in the Blue Grass while the Ark horses were nowhere. I had no respect for War Emblem off that win at Sportsmans....shows what I know!

[Wiley]

Yeah, I definitely remember those. How about Swale in 1984? That was a year before Spend A Buck did it.
Swale did not wire, Althea was the leader at the quarter pole.

The one people tend to forget is Go For Gin on a sloppy track in 94, that was a tough read given Holy Bull was in there and had just crushed the Blue Grass in the slop prior I think, the Bull definitely did not run his race or did not take to the track that day because no way anyone thought he would get outbroke for the lead.

It is tough to win wiring and I cannot see it this year as long as Bode, Hansen, Gemologist and Trinniberg are in the mix.

[KingChas]

Don't let the hype throw you off this year.


So I take it if Mr. Beyer learned his lesson 10 years ago he should definately be betting on Bode this year?

[Bullet Plane]

So I take it if Mr. Beyer learned his lesson 10 years ago he should definately be betting on Bode this year?

Yep, that's what he said on the DRF forum....

[KingChas]

Mr. Haskin's legitimate question,which scares me too.

"Can he break a 120-year-old curse, or whatever you want to call it?
And can he become only the third horse since 1918 to win the Derby having four or fewer career starts?"

[castaway01]

Beyer did have Street Sense. If it's any consolation, almost no one had some of the recent 50-1 winners. It's not an easy race to pick.

[sovereign]

Yep, that's what he said on the DRF forum....
That's one I can eliminate from the top spot.

[Wiley]

I think it was in 1993 when the Ark Derby was won by Rockamundo with a ridiculously high Beyer figure.
This is a good point, Bellamy Road was another high one. Beyer should also look at the highest figure horses that crashed in the Derby, wonder what the ROI is for this?

I think for the most part the Derby winner runs a new top so it really comes down to finding one that will peak then. The Beyer number is something to look at but to me, like many other factors, should never be a stand alone reason to bet a horse.

[cj]

This is a good point, Bellamy Road was another high one. Beyer should also look at the highest figure horses that crashed in the Derby, wonder what the ROI is for this?

I think for the most part the Derby winner runs a new top so it really comes down to finding one that will peak then. The Beyer number is something to look at but to me, like many other factors, should never be a stand alone reason to bet a horse.

I posted the ROI of the top Beyer horses. It is huge, and the win percentage respectable, like 25%.

I love War Emblem. He is THE horse that really made people notice me here as I picked him in the Illinois Derby and the big one. It wasn't just picking him, but detailing why the pace of the Ill Derby wasn't slow.

That said, everyone is missing the main reason he was 20-1. It is simple, it was the memory of the 2001 Derby.

[cj]

www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1264969&postcount=28

[Wiley]

I posted the ROI of the top Beyer horses. It is huge, and the win percentage respectable, like 25%.

I love War Emblem. He is THE horse that really made people notice me here as I picked him in the Illinois Derby and the big one. It wasn't just picking him, but detailing why the pace of the Ill Derby wasn't slow.

That said, everyone is missing the main reason he was 20-1. It is simple, it was the memory of the 2001 Derby.
Thanks, I thought I saw the numbers somewhere before, 3 longshots and 3 favorites over the last 20 years, better numbers than my picks over the same span as far as wins go.

The '02 Derby was another painful one for me as I liked Perfect Drift and War Emblem, of course played my win on PD and hard exacta boxes with WE.
PD could not get by Proud Citzen, the most agonizing part was it always looked like PD would pass PC for most of the race, but he never could...not smart enough to dutch the win either.

[PhantomOnTour]

I followed War Emblem that winter at FG and really liked him.
Was a big fan of Springer/Reinemann combo but passed on him in the Derby when they sold him :bang:

[Steve R]

This is a good point, Bellamy Road was another high one. Beyer should also look at the highest figure horses that crashed in the Derby, wonder what the ROI is for this?

I think for the most part the Derby winner runs a new top so it really comes down to finding one that will peak then. The Beyer number is something to look at but to me, like many other factors, should never be a stand alone reason to bet a horse.
I don't agree that most Derby winners run a new top. It could just be self-fulfilling because of how Beyer uses his projections. My figures show a new top in the Derby for just six of the last fourteen winners. And I don't find that at all surprising considering how few Derby winners over the last 20 years were legitimate 10f horses. Only a small handful ever again won a race as far as 10f and not for lack of trying.

[JustRalph]

That said, everyone is missing the main reason he was 20-1. It is simple, it was the memory of the 2001 Derby.

Exactly. We had a great day.........

[Valuist]

I was embarrassed too. Went to the IL Derby that year. Old Sportsman Park. Witnessed War Emblem first hand. Didn't have a nickel on him in the Derby! :blush:

Didn't your namesake wire the field in the Derby? If he didn't, it was very close to a wire job.

[maddog42]

I posted the ROI of the top Beyer horses. It is huge, and the win percentage respectable, like 25%.

I love War Emblem. He is THE horse that really made people notice me here as I picked him in the Illinois Derby and the big one. It wasn't just picking him, but detailing why the pace of the Ill Derby wasn't slow.

That said, everyone is missing the main reason he was 20-1. It is simple, it was the memory of the 2001 Derby.

What was the explanation for the Illinois being a fast pace? Was Sportsmans a
bullring?

[wisconsin]

What was the explanation for the Illinois being a fast pace? Was Sportsmans a
bullring?


At the time, the track had been elongated to 7 furlongs with a super long 1539 foot stretch.

[maddog42]

At the time, the track had been elongated to 7 furlongs with a super long 1539 foot stretch.

That explains some of it. Sounds like tight turns too. 73.03 might have been a very fast 6f on a track like that. How else do you get a 112 Beyer with a 73.03
unless you run your eyeballs out? I agree the Derby did "setup" for him with some of the other speed having trouble.

[Greybase]

In fact War Emblem's 112 is the highest pre-Derby figure over the last 20 years according to the DRF table (Article below). Good question, how'd we miss it ?? :confused: Looking at that table, see why Bodemeister is rated by many as the Horse to Beat in 2012. Only horse this year with 3 Beyer's 100 or better...

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-top-five-contenders-and-other-statistics

[cj]

What was the explanation for the Illinois being a fast pace? Was Sportsmans a
bullring?

Come on, surely you know where I was when you posted this!

[Some_One]

As I've always said, a speed figure is a numerical representation of all the variables in a given race, Beyer, like many others, didn't think the derby would play similar to the Haw race...he was wrong.

[The WindfallAngler]

Mr. Haskin's legitimate question,which scares me too.

"Can he break a 120-year-old curse, or whatever you want to call it?
And can he become only the third horse since 1918 to win the Derby having four or fewer career starts?"

In this connection, it might be useful to know the work habits of derby hopefuls Unraced At Two that tried and failed.

If it is true that Bodemeister had 26 workouts in 2011, this should distinguish him, at least, from those colts whose lack of *foundation* included physical problems.

Bode's training looks promising: http://www.hrtv.com/videos/bodemeister-group-work-sa-32312/?VideoCategoryId=0

[KingChas]

In this connection, it might be useful to know the work habits of derby hopefuls Unraced At Two that tried and failed.

If it is true that Bodemeister had 26 workouts in 2011, this should distinguish him, at least, from those colts whose lack of *foundation* included physical problems.



The reason so many tried and failed?
I would think the lack of real racing experience comes into play when your talking racing in a 20 horse field laced with peers,some that are more war tested, now in their sophmore season.

The scenario this year with the connections.
Baffert also trained Indian Charlie along much the same lines as Bodemeister coming into the Derby,Charlie did finish 3rd.
Baffert did win the Derby that year.

Of course Bodemeister could be the special horse wev'e been waiting for since...................................... 1978.

Of course this is what makes the Derby the Derby......... ;)

[maddog42]

Come on, surely you know where I was when you posted this!

That was a helluva game! Those Redhawks can sure play some ball! Sorry I couldn't resist. KD Fileted em. Down goes Dallas. It is funbeating anybody from the state of Texas.

[classhandicapper]

It's harder for a horse to go wire to wire in the Derby for the simple reason that there are often 20 horses in the race. So totally unrelated to pace or distance issues, with that many horses no particular running position is going to win very often.

As a general rule though, with 20 horses, many of which are not suited to 10F, you are going to get a very competitive pace and some faint hearted horses on the lead. In any given year though, it doesn't have to be that way.