Friday/Saturday Belmont

[jeebus1083]

Is it me, or are there 1) more maidens on the grounds than at any other track in America? 2) more turf sprints than any other track in America? 3) the higher class stock is still not filling, in spite of the enhanced purses?

Friday's allowance opt.clm race only drew 6 starters, Saturday's overnight stake drew 6 (5 betting interests), and the Westchester only attracted like 6 runners.

Why are horsemen of WINNERS not buying into these enhanced purses?

[andtheyreoff]

Just looked at the first two cards. There are HUGE fields in these, so good for them on that front. However, the quality is severely lacking.


EIGHT maiden races/conditioned claimers on Saturday



A total of three NY bred MSWs for females on the grass



Two overnight stakes for opening day failed to fill (one was a dirt sprint for females with 11 nominations, the other a grass stake for fillies that had 21 nominations- surprised that one didn't fill).



On Saturday, an allowance going six furlongs on dirt and an open claimer on turf both did not fill.


Considering these massive purses, I'm surprised the quality isn't there. But, of course, the condition book isn't calling for high quality races. The true high purse test would be if they carded good races (i.e. unrestricted claimers, more n/w2x and n/w3x AOCs, fewer claimers on turf), instead of the stuff in the book now. Then we could see if high purses fill races that ordinarily struggle to pass the box.

[jeebus1083]

I understand that the racing secretary can only write races for the stock that he has on the grounds, but it boggles the mind that most of these barns seem to be full of maiden runners, or turf sprinters. Has the breed deteriorated that much for us to come to this?

As far as andtheyreoff's theory, to card good races means you need good horses. As far as my eye can see, I don't see those good horses right now.

[Grits]

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-park-big-money-lures-new-outfits-spring-summer-meet

Money talks.

Fueled by revenue from the Aqueduct casino, average daily purses at Belmont are expected to increase 44 percent from last year to an average of $620,000 a day. That figure factors in stakes purses, which received a $1.9 million increase over 2011.

Maiden special weight sprint races will be worth $70,000 – up from $50,000 in 2011 – while routes will be worth $75,000 – up from $51,000 a year ago.

[Tom]

If you want better quality, don't increase purses on the worst races.
You make maiden purses high and you will get a card full of maidens.
Some kind of strategy needs be used - not just throw money at the problem.

[sandpit]

Just looked at the first two cards. There are HUGE fields in these, so good for them on that front. However, the quality is severely lacking.

Your statement also serves well for the Saturday opening night card at Churchill Downs, minus the "huge" for the most part:


Three maiden claimers, including one for $30 on the turf


A split of a $5,000 race that only made 2 eight-horse fields


Two condition claimers and another $5,000 starter race


Off races were a $25K claimer for the girls, a $40K turf sprint claimer (hard to believe this one didn't fill) and 2x optional $40K turf marathon.
The 2 allowance races that did fill have six horses each
On the plus side, the Derby Trial has 11 horses, but 4 of them are from one barn.




Prediction: it is going to be a long meet of filling races for the racing office.

[Al Gobbi]

Yikes. That card at CD is bad, hope Derby/Oaks undercard races have full fields or Churchill may not make its goal of $200m handle for the two days. On the other hand, Friday - Sunday race weeks are probably going to happen if field size gets worse.

[NTamm1215]

What is it that people want? Belmont has well over 120 entries on opening day and nearly the same number on the 2nd day. But, clearly that's not good enough. The complaints are now that the quality is lacking.

It seems as if everyone has amnesia and fantasizes about days where racetracks carded nothing but 10-12 horse allowance races. Those never existed and they're not about to start now. PJ Campo did his best the first two days at Belmont to write races that would garner big, competitive fields.

That 7 horse Westchester is certainly a good betting race, especially if you're of the opinion that To Honor and Serve is a good bet against.

Good races, smaller fields, that's a problem. Cheaper races, big fields, that's a problem. Clearly, some people are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they're always going to have a problem.

[Tom]

Or find another track to bet.
If CUSTOMERS are complaining, it is not their job to adjust - it the tracks to figure out how to serve them better.

That is called good business.


We never had full fields of 10 allowance horses?
Well, we never had this much purse money before either.
Might be time to get creative.

[jeebus1083]

What is it that people want? Belmont has well over 120 entries on opening day and nearly the same number on the 2nd day. But, clearly that's not good enough. The complaints are now that the quality is lacking.

It seems as if everyone has amnesia and fantasizes about days where racetracks carded nothing but 10-12 horse allowance races. Those never existed and they're not about to start now. PJ Campo did his best the first two days at Belmont to write races that would garner big, competitive fields.

That 7 horse Westchester is certainly a good betting race, especially if you're of the opinion that To Honor and Serve is a good bet against.

Good races, smaller fields, that's a problem. Cheaper races, big fields, that's a problem. Clearly, some people are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they're always going to have a problem.

Nick, my main gripe (other than turf sprints/field size) is that both days are loaded with maidens. I've followed the sport probably as long as you have, and NY used to have a pretty even balance between all classes, surfaces and distances. No longer. How did it get to this point?

As I said before, has the breed deteriorated that badly? When you consider how the number of live foals have dropped year to year, and that only a small percentage even make it to the starting gate, is the industry pushing horses that normally wouldn't have been deemed race-worthy about 10-20 years ago, onto racetracks just to keep the sport alive?

[Dahoss9698]

Or find another track to bet.
If CUSTOMERS are complaining, it is not their job to adjust - it the tracks to figure out how to serve them better.

That is called good business.


We never had full fields of 10 allowance horses?
Well, we never had this much purse money before either.
Might be time to get creative.

What track right now has what you are asking for? I can't think of any.

It's easy to just say bet another track, but after you say it and realize NO tracks have what you are looking for, then what?

I get your overall point. But at some point we have to realize the game has changed dramatically. Connections would rather sit in the barn then run in a competitive race. Nothing tracks could do, shy of throwing even more money at the horseman, will change this.

Any gripes about quality needs to be directed at the horseman. The money is there. Where are they?

[jeebus1083]

Or find another track to bet.
If CUSTOMERS are complaining, it is not their job to adjust - it the tracks to figure out how to serve them better.

That is called good business.


We never had full fields of 10 allowance horses?
Well, we never had this much purse money before either.
Might be time to get creative.

It's easy to bet a 2nd/3rd-tier track because you expect the action to be 2nd/3rd-tier. I'll bet places like Mountaineer/Evangeline/Parx on occasion and have fun with it, but my heart is with NY racing. I just wish that there was less racing for maidens and more racing for winners.

[Lt1]

Campo is known for carding way too many many maiden and grass races. When it rains the cards fall apart. I don't know of any other major track that cards as many as 50% of their races on the grass daily. He also seems to like mdn races on the weekend. I believe he carded 4 straight mdn races on Wood Day instead of running them during the week.

[jeebus1083]

Campo is known for carding way too many many maiden and grass races. When it rains the cards fall apart. I don't know of any other major track that cards as many as 50% of their races on the grass daily. He also seems to like mdn races on the weekend. I believe he carded 4 straight mdn races on Wood Day instead of running them during the week.

Which again begs the question: has the breed deteriorated to the point where there are just too many maidens racing?

[OTM Al]

Which again begs the question: has the breed deteriorated to the point where there are just too many maidens racing?

This question doesn't make sense. Only one horse 99.9% of the time is going to win a race. Only one horse is going to have to advance up the condition ladder after each race. Thus what does this have to do with deterioration of the breed? In fact there are less horses around than there used to be, so if the breed was deteriorating even fewer would be making it to the race track, so there would have to be fewer maiden races.

If there are really more maiden races, then that would be a good thing because more horses would only be eligible for the higher level conditions that you want to see. Where are the fields for a NW1X going to come from if you don't run very many maidens?

And yes, Belmont and Saratoga do run more turf sprints than most places. Why? Because they have 2 turf courses and therefore can run more turf races of all kinds. There is a demand for this. It is a well respected type of race throughout the world. Ever heard of Black Caviar? One of the highest rated and most celebrated horses in the world? Turf sprinter. I like turf sprints and once there is a little established form, I find them extremely formful and good to make money on because so many people seem compelled to bet them without understanding them. I won't play many at Belmont because I'm not good at the 6f and 7f distances, but give me all the 5fs and 5 1/2fs I can get come Saratoga. Love those.

[jeebus1083]

If there are really more maiden races, then that would be a good thing because more horses would only be eligible for the higher level conditions that you want to see. Where are the fields for a NW1X going to come from if you don't run very many maidens?

Where were the fields for a NW1x coming from all winter at Aqueduct? Last fall at Belmont? I still recall those races not filling, and more maiden races on the menu.

[jeebus1083]

This question doesn't make sense. Only one horse 99.9% of the time is going to win a race. Only one horse is going to have to advance up the condition ladder after each race. Thus what does this have to do with deterioration of the breed? In fact there are less horses around than there used to be, so if the breed was deteriorating even fewer would be making it to the race track, so there would have to be fewer maiden races.

Ok so I didnt make sense, my apologies. But still, the maiden winners don't seem to be graduating to allowance automatically anymore, instead dropping right into claimers.

I realize that maidens are running for jackpot money, but it doesn't really translate into better it seems.

[Tom]

I get your overall point. But at some point we have to realize the game has changed dramatically. Connections would rather sit in the barn then run in a competitive race. Nothing tracks could do, shy of throwing even more money at the horseman, will change this.

I really don't have an answer, and, as the customer I don't have to.
I have X dollars to spend on my racing, and if no one can provide me with a decent product, I will have X dollars to spend on other things. If tracks are happy with the support they get now, then I am the minority and I can adjust to that. Right now, I can pick races from many tracks and support none fully.

But is all we get from all this additional slots money is cards like this weekend, I will support the state taking that money for use on public projects and screw the tracks. As a NYer, I could get more benefit from that pot of gold if the tracks had to stand on their own.

[Tom]

Al, I agree with your premise.
But try this - cut maiden purses at NYRA and raise ALW purses through the roof - say 100 grand for first level.

Let them break their maidens somewhere else and lure them in with purses here. Cull out the crap and reward the winners.

Just throwing that out there without a lot of thought......or how about this.....add a condition to allowance races, "for horses which have started since (5 weeks ago, allowed 5 pounds, 4 week, 7 pounds, 3 weeks 10 pounds...) or say a 10% purse bonus if a horse has raced over the circuit in the last 5 weeks?

[cj]

Any gripes about quality needs to be directed at the horseman. The money is there. Where are they?

Totally agree. About the only other thing the track can do is reduce the purse for every horse under 8. I'm not even sure that would work though to be honest.

[OTM Al]

Al, I agree with your premise.
But try this - cut maiden purses at NYRA and raise ALW purses through the roof - say 100 grand for first level.

Let them break their maidens somewhere else and lure them in with purses here. Cull out the crap and reward the winners.

Just throwing that out there without a lot of thought......or how about this.....add a condition to allowance races, "for horses which have started since (5 weeks ago, allowed 5 pounds, 4 week, 7 pounds, 3 weeks 10 pounds...) or say a 10% purse bonus if a horse has raced over the circuit in the last 5 weeks?

It's clear that efforts are being made to find the right monetary incentives. The higher purses situation is a new thing, so don't expect it to be perfect right away. The 2yo maiden incentive thing they came up with I think is great, which should not only increase quality/quantity in those races but the graded races as well, especially on the heels of the nearly inexplicable downgrading of the Hopeful.

Big question is, how much does it take to lure horses as you suggest. Your horse broke a maiden, say in Delaware, where the competition is going to be weaker, what does it take to get them to ship up to balance the possible returns of placing vs a more likely winner's check at Delaware. They aren't that far away from 100k as it is, so if that isn't enough, what is? Also, are there enough out there to make this work when other types of races at the tracks in the area are paying big purses for high level claimers.

Your suggestion is interesting and is at least an idea, but doubt that is going to give the incentive to run back more quickly, especially if the horse hasn't been trained to. Would be a big incentive to go elsewhere really. Only way it would work as envisioned is if the horse was not allowed to race elsewhere.

All I know is someone was complaining about a card that had at least 4 races that had 16 entrants including the AEs and MTOs and the smallest race other than the 6 horse field had 9. I don't get it. The common complaint is that it's supposed to be about gambling, but then people get mad because it isn't being enough of a sport. It all went downhill after NYRA created the AIDS.....

[KirisClown]

Not great quality, but.. this is what opening day at Belmont looked like 16 years ago..

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[BIG49010]

Yikes. That card at CD is bad, hope Derby/Oaks undercard races have full fields or Churchill may not make its goal of $200m handle for the two days. On the other hand, Friday - Sunday race weeks are probably going to happen if field size gets worse.

77 horses for the Tuesday card, and the races are uggggg!

I think the goal is impossible for Derby / Oaks.

[aaron]

Al, I agree with your premise.
But try this - cut maiden purses at NYRA and raise ALW purses through the roof - say 100 grand for first level.

Let them break their maidens somewhere else and lure them in with purses here. Cull out the crap and reward the winners.

Just throwing that out there without a lot of thought......
I don't know if this would help. I'm not sure trainers from other tracks would ship here,because the competition would be tougher,with the new outfits that are now stabled here. A tough situation. Let's see how it plays out.

[jeebus1083]

My goodness, what a bunch of complaining SOBs.

Maybe there are some people here who appreciate when NY had the best quality of racing in North America.

[the little guy]

Maybe there are some people here who appreciate when NY had the best quality of racing in North America.

And NY does have the best quality racing in North America. Unless you would specifically like to tell me where it is better.

[jeebus1083]

And NY does have the best quality racing in North America. Unless you would specifically like to tell me where it is better.

Do I dare say Woodbine? Their open allowance and stakes seem to do better on field size and the purses are quite healthy.

[the little guy]

Do I dare say Woodbine? Their open allowance and stakes seem to do better on field size and the purses are quite healthy.


Tim, while Woodbine does have good racing, I am guessing you haven't spent a great deal of time handicapping their races over the last year or so. Suggesting their Stakes program is better than New York's is pretty silly.

Woodbine runs seven months a year. New York runs twelve months. The quality of racing at Belmont and Saratoga is better than Woodbine. Perhaps when you start paying attention to Woodbine, and I hope you do as they have a terrific product, you will know this.

[5k-claim]

My goodness, what a bunch of complaining SOBs.I think you mean.... "customers".

It helps the entertainment value if you read the comments hearing the voices of Statler and Waldorf. I have used that trick for a while, depending on the thread subject.

.

[jeebus1083]

Tim, while Woodbine does have good racing, I am guessing you haven't spent a great deal of time handicapping their races over the last year or so. Suggesting their Stakes program is better than New York's is pretty silly.

Woodbine runs seven months a year. New York runs twelve months. The quality of racing at Belmont and Saratoga is better than Woodbine. Perhaps when you start paying attention to Woodbine, and I hope you do as they have a terrific product, you will know this.

I suppose handicapping Woodbine about 5 times in the past year (at least two dozen times since 2008) doesn't constitute a "great deal" and cannot accurately paint the big picture. As far as suggesting that the stakes program is better than New York's, I was talking in terms of field size and based on what I have bet at Woodbine, competitiveness. To compare the quality of stakes between NY and WO is an obvious "apples to oranges" argument. We know that the quality, money (and tradition) of major NY stake races - especially at Saratoga -- my home track as you know - are better, even if they don't always yield 10-12 horse fields. As far as comparing the quality of racing at Woodbine to all the other tracks in Canada, there is no contest -- the OJC is king.

Having said that, I will Woodbine a closer look this spring than I usually do. As you accurately state, and based on my limited play, their racing product is top shelf, very playable, and competitive. Their turf course is awesome. I've always wanted to make a visit, but distance is the barrier.

[jeebus1083]

I think you mean.... "customers".

It helps the entertainment value if you read the comments hearing the voices of Statler and Waldorf. I have used that trick for a while, depending on the thread subject.

.

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[tzipi]

Can't wait for 12:50 tomorrow afternoon :) Great to be back at Belmont again. Great racing.

[Dahoss9698]

I really don't have an answer, and, as the customer I don't have to.
I have X dollars to spend on my racing, and if no one can provide me with a decent product, I will have X dollars to spend on other things. If tracks are happy with the support they get now, then I am the minority and I can adjust to that. Right now, I can pick races from many tracks and support none fully.

But is all we get from all this additional slots money is cards like this weekend, I will support the state taking that money for use on public projects and screw the tracks. As a NYer, I could get more benefit from that pot of gold if the tracks had to stand on their own.

I'm not suggesting you need to have an answer. And if you don't like a card, you're right, you have other opportunities. I just don't agree about criticizing this weekend's cards. I see cards with a lot of full fields and a lot of opportunities.

I guess I wonder what the people not happy with these cards want. The only times we get cards like the ones you guys are looking for is big days. It's been like this for years now.

[Robert Fischer]

NYRA has to be my favorite circuit.