2012 wise guy horse...

[peeptoad]

??

I'm saying Dullahan. The Derby is relatively wide open this year (although not the crap shoot of last year), and he seems to be getting a LOT of hype (some of it deserved), but the fact of the matter is he's 0-3 on turf, 0-3 on dirt, and 2-2 on synthetics. IMO he may actually be a play on an off-track, but I'm not inclined to use him in any prominent fashion on a fast track (even though he may benefit from a pace perspective).

[Turkoman]

His Speed Figures have been improving race after race, and I was really impressed by his victory in the Blue Grass, but that 0 for 3 dirt record worries me. If it wasn't for that, considering how much he's improved, he'd be my top choice in the KY Derby. And the interesting thing is that both of his wins on synthetics have been against Grade 1 competition. Who knows, maybe none of this will matter, and the horse runs a big race.

Turkoman

[Father Guy]

Watch the Breeders' Cup Juvenile again, take note of how badly he was hampered running into the first turn, note what a hopeless position that left him in and consider that when watching his finishing effort..... then think about his prospects again.
The fact Trinniberg may now line up for the Derby can only enhance his chance, fast track or otherwise.

[horses4courses]

The "wise guy" horse, imo, is the one that certain popular clockers say is working "lights out" on the track, and is looking like a million dollars leading up to the race. Animal Kingdom was, actually, a wise guy horse last year.

[Leparoux]

At this point my answer would be "Daddy Nose Best" but still a lot of time. Last year I think the award when to "Nehro" for his late run in the Arkansas Derby.

[sovereign]

If the track becomes wet and sloppy, El Padrino will be the wiseguy horse.

[Valuist]

IMO the "wise guy" horse is one who's approaching the race clearly under the radar. Bodemeister, Union Rags, Dullahan, Gemologist, Creative Cause and Hansen are NOT under the radar, so the "wise guy" horse has to be somebody besides those. Dullahan isn't under the radar at all and his form was flattered by the fast pace over a surface friendly to his running style, so he is more likely to be overbet than underbet.

Animal Kingdom did fit last year, as well as a number of horses over the years who never made an impact. The wise guy horse MAY be working sharp, but I wouldn't pigeon hole it stictly to just that.

So who is left? I'll Have Another? Daddy Knows Best? Alpha?

[MNslappy]

I think it'll be one of these three:

Daddy Nose Best
Take Charge Indy
El Padrino

[The WindfallAngler]

Daddy Long Legs, perhaps -- wiseguy-wise?

As for Daddy Nose Best, I'll test his pacelines. But I can't get past his two lonely Grade 3 wins, even though they're @ 9f.

He is in against Grade One winners, or colts that have at least a good, close finish in a Grade 1 event, plus G2 win(s). DNB appears overmatched.

[peeptoad]

IMO the "wise guy" horse is one who's approaching the race clearly under the radar. Bodemeister, Union Rags, Dullahan, Gemologist, Creative Cause and Hansen are NOT under the radar, so the "wise guy" horse has to be somebody besides those. Dullahan isn't under the radar at all and his form was flattered by the fast pace over a surface friendly to his running style, so he is more likely to be overbet than underbet.

Animal Kingdom did fit last year, as well as a number of horses over the years who never made an impact. The wise guy horse MAY be working sharp, but I wouldn't pigeon hole it stictly to just that.

So who is left? I'll Have Another? Daddy Knows Best? Alpha?

Using that criteria possibly Went the Day Well?

[sovereign]

Using that criteria possibly Went the Day Well?

Irwin said WTDW is better than AK, but seeing is believing. WTDW is still a bit green. AK is more professional.

[horses4courses]

The wise guy horse MAY be working sharp, but I wouldn't pigeon hole it stictly to just that.

Having managed Race & Sports books for years, I have come across my share of wise guys over the years.
They pretty much all have a clocker, a numbers guy, or both, on their payroll. Those are the types I'm referring too.

[Valuist]

Using that criteria possibly Went the Day Well?

Absolutely.

[sovereign]

Absolutely.

I hope not. I'm trying to get 20/1 or more on him.

[holmmd]

Based on connections and last year's Derby, think you'll be looking at closer to 15-1 come post time.

[Sysonby]

I'll Have Another

[sovereign]

I'll Have Another

Coming right up, sir!

I think stupid money will be bet on this one because the Derby falls on Cinco de Mayo. :)

[precocity]

Using that criteria possibly Went the Day Well?

mark my words went the day well is going to hit the bord in the derby :ThmbUp:

[sovereign]

mark my words went the day well is going to hit the bord in the derby :ThmbUp:

I will be bold enough to say he is going to win.

[precocity]

I will be bold enough to say he is going to win.
he got some gears on him..

[sovereign]

he got some gears on him..

He has got a gear he has not yet used when he was transferred to Team Valor.

WTDW's first race. Watch the pink shirt with black bands on the sleeves. (http://www.racinguk.com/video/race-replays/20110924/1847857)

[School of Forego]

He has got a gear he has not yet used when he was transferred to Team Valor.

WTDW's first race. Watch the pink shirt with black bands on the sleeves. (http://www.racinguk.com/video/race-replays/20110924/1847857)

The last time we heard the hidden gear theory was Mike Smith with Zenyatta...he promised it and instead beat her to a pulp with 30 nasty whacks...just saying. GL

[precocity]

The last time we heard the hidden gear theory was Mike Smith with Zenyatta...he promised it and instead beat her to a pulp with 30 nasty whacks...just saying. GL
:lol: :lol: ur crazy man. good luck on gem.

[sovereign]

The last time we heard the hidden gear theory was Mike Smith with Zenyatta...he promised it and instead beat her to a pulp with 30 nasty whacks...just saying. GL

You just gave away who you are.

[School of Forego]

Sov, is that so? Tell me who I am then and why it should matter anyway?:rolleyes:

[peeptoad]

The "wise guy" horse, imo, is the one that certain popular clockers say is working "lights out" on the track, and is looking like a million dollars leading up to the race. Animal Kingdom was, actually, a wise guy horse last year.

Take Charge Indy might be one to watch closely once he arrives at CD. Seems he had a pretty nice work down at Palm Meadows today.

[rogerbalz]

Is went the day well the wise guy as was AK last year?
I am looking at an exacta with WTDW and ??????
All help is appreciated!! :confused:

[depalma113]

mark my words went the day well is going to hit the bord in the derby :ThmbUp:

Is he jumping the inside rail?

[MickJ26]

Take Charge Indy is my wise guy play too. He has tactical speed AND Calvin.

[Let's Roll]

Take Charge Indy is my wise guy play too. He has tactical speed AND Calvin.
This horse has my interest too.I have to decide how to play him, hoping Calvin takes the rail and has a clear path turning for home.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Daddy Nose Best and Alpha.Hoards of publicity on most of the others and IMO rightfully so.There is a gap of speed and accomplishment amongst this group.I personally don't think it's wise to predict 14-20 point jumps in ability just because the race is a furlong longer.

[peeptoad]

Daddy Nose Best is certainly looking like a major wise guy contender this year... if Prospective gets bet down at all, then he may qualify as well.

[tribecaagent]

It seems Gemologist & Daddy Nose Best are the wise-guy picks. Meanwhile, the antithesis of wise-guy pick is Dullahan. He seems to be getting very little attention.