The case for higher take outs.

[Ray2000]

I recently got an email asking "Why the hell would anybody bet Flamboro Exactas with their high take-outs of 25%?".
My answer lies in the stats.

If you're a high roller then the small Exacta pools ($2-$3000) aren't for you
but if you're a 5$ punter like me then you might be interested in this "Dirty little Secret".

As shown in the table below Flamboro, Grand River and Georgia have much higher average Ex payoffs than Yonkers, Monticello or Freehold.
I am aware that this is a function of field size so here is the breakdown on starters.

Flmd Field size 8....$72.11
Flmd Field size 9....$98.68

Nfld Field size 8....$67.29
Nfld Field size 9....$72.56

The reason for this must be the sharks and high rollers stay away from high take-out tracks and that suits me just fine.


track Races Ave Exacta
INDY 1594 $108.58
HOP 1582 $106.29
SCD 1335 $102.03
MOH 2199 $100.09
WDB 3630 $96.38
BigM 3031 $94.53
MEA 6729 $94.36
VD 1635 $92.59
PCD 4134 $90.28
TGDN 1160 $86.68
BMLP 2867 $86.13
FLMD 5443 $85.53
GRVR 1708 $84.96
GEOD 2124 $83.65
FRD 1897 $82.93
WR 2600 $80.40
RIDC 4637 $80.05
__All 113837 $78.76
HP 1708 $76.70
PPK 3006 $75.80
MAY 3102 $74.44
CALX 2974 $73.61
NFLD 6913 $72.91
NOR 1943 $72.21
BR 3312 $70.33
STGA 4260 $70.14
DD 5445 $69.84
YR 8055 $68.87
HAR 3492 $68.04
PRC 1577 $66.66
MR 6486 $64.35
CHST 4587 $63.61
FHLD 3540 $60.29



Races are for 2009-Mar 2012 and do not include Maidens, FS<8 or Races w/ coupled entries
or any robot pick was scratched

[melman]

Ray big bettor's do NOT mind high takeout rates. Reason------The higher the takeout rate the higher the REBATE.

[Ray2000]

That's true, ...but the small pools will get them. :)

Go Flyers!

[maddog42]

That's true, ...but the small pools will get them. :)

Go Flyers!

I don't think you'll find much support for higher takeouts on this board,

[cecil127]

Ray big bettor's do NOT mind high takeout rates. Reason------The higher the takeout rate the higher the REBATE.

are we talking "off shore rebate shops" or is there some secret rebate shop legal here in the state of PA im unaware of?

either way: i didnt think rebates are based on the takeout. its a (percentage) rebate on what you wagered-right?:confused:

unless you mean the book gives you higher percentage rebates on the tracks with higher takeouts?:confused:

[lamboguy]

are we talking "off shore rebate shops" or is there some secret rebate shop legal here in the state of PA im unaware of?

either way: i didnt think rebates are based on the takeout. its a (percentage) rebate on what you wagered-right?:confused:

unless you mean the book gives you higher percentage rebates on the tracks with higher takeouts?:confused:
if you bet online, there are a bunch of places that advertise on this board that will give smaller players decent rebates.

[melman]

cecil--No ADW's right in the US. BetPTC, Idabet, etc. It's not the takeout on the track it's the takeout on the bet. Example 16% take on WPS means smaller rebate. 32% takeout on tri's or supers much larger rebate. You are right cecil in some respects, as the more you bet many places will give you higher rebates. All of them however will give more of a rebate on the high takeout bets.

[baconswitchfarm]

I play on a margin. My provider keeps a set amount plus signal fee and i get the rest. Payouts on meadows triples are low but the rebates are giant. I try to play where i have a fighting chance and rebate is good.

[Robert Goren]

With rebates you don't care what the general public pays in takeout. a 25% takeout with a 15% rebate for all practical purposes is the same as 16% takeout with a 6% rebate. But you should. The higher the takeout for the general public, the less "dumb" money is the pool. Even with rebates there has to be some "dumb" money in the pool to show a profit. If the odds truly reflect every horses in the race chance of winning when adjusted for takeout, no rebate is going to turn that race into a profitable betting opportunity. Something has to be amiss to have a +EV even with rebates. As more and more money in the pools becomes "smart" money, the less likely it is that you can a +EV situation even with that big rebate. You can make a -8% ROI profitable with 15% rebate, but you can't make a -25% ROI bet profitable with a 15% rebate.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I play on a margin. My provider keeps a set amount plus signal fee and i get the rest. Payouts on meadows triples are low but the rebates are giant. I try to play where i have a fighting chance and rebate is good.

Two things for me is that I refuse to bet into a trifecta pool that has a retention rate of 35% which is the Meadows rate and the max provided for under Pa Statute. The other thing is if you can show a profit at the Meadows betting their trifecta races, you are a better handicapper than me and I grew up at the Meadows. If living 6 miles from the track and growing up there deesn't give me an advantage, I really don't know how anyone can make a profit, even with rebates.

THey rake over one third of the pool each time they race. Odds are against you. What is your rate which you described as "Giant"? 10 percent? 15%?

rtd

[badcompany]

THey rake over one third of the pool each time they race. Odds are against you. What is your rate which you described as "Giant"? 10 percent? 15%?

rtd

These rebates seem to be mythical entities. I was just on the PTC page and couldn't find them.

I've also wondered what makes people so confident in these shops to trust them with large amounts of money? What happens if one goes bust?

[melman]

badcompany---I respectfully submit this but there is no myth about it. I can understand you may not believe me. I have no "name" However maybe you will believe Jeff Platt (JeffP). Send him a PM and get details. Many of these ADW's do not list there rebate rates for a reason. It can depend on the total amount you bet with them. You might also respect poster "Cangamble" he is the man at horseplayersbet.com. Might send a PM to him also. These ADW's such as the one mentioned and BetPTC or Idabet advertise "Reward Bonuses" Again badcompany respectfully submitted as you and I share many of the same views. You might also PM poster DeanT for info. I hope none of the names that I mentioned mind me doing so. However all three are board members of HANA and they would have NO reason to not tell the truth on this matter.

[badcompany]

badcompany---I respectfully submit this but there is no myth about it. I can understand you may not believe me. I have no "name" However maybe you will believe Jeff Platt (JeffP). Send him a PM and get details. Many of these ADW's do not list there rebate rates for a reason. It can depend on the total amount you bet with them. You might also respect poster "Cangamble" he is the man at horseplayersbet.com. Might send a PM to him also. These ADW's such as the one mentioned and BetPTC or Idabet advertise "Reward Bonuses" Again badcompany respectfully submitted as you and I share many of the same views. You might also PM poster DeanT for info. I hope none of the names that I mentioned mind me doing so. However all three are board members of HANA and they would have NO reason to not tell the truth on this matter.

No offense taken, and I'm not trying to stir the pot, but, I just find it odd that the shops are so secretive about rebates, when rebates are the primary reason to bet with a shop as opposed to the track or simo center where you can get your money immediately.

IMO, this type of secrecy contributes to the stereotype of horseracing being something shady.

Scottrade surely handles way more money than any rebate shop; yet has no problem posting its margin interest rate schedule.

http://www.scottrade.com/online-brokerage/interest-margin-rates.html

[melman]

Thanks for the tone of your remarks BC. However with any of the three ADW's I listed yes you can get your money immediately. By that I mean next day it's in your banks checking account.

BC---Your MUCH more informed than I on the Scottrade company but do they VARY the rates according to how much money you send in on bets or with them investments.

Send JeffP a PM you may be shocked at what a large money player can get in rebates. I do agree with you in that there is to much secrecy involved and I'm not sure why. Maybe the have to compete in a very limited "niche" market of horseplayers and not a very large market like the stock market.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

The tracks themselves also offer incentives to their heavy hitters...A friend of mine is 2nd on the list...he gets 6 percent on all his wagers in rebates ontrack. Now that might not be much but with the free pp’s and drf’s plus those vacations they ship them on (one year they went to Vegas)... he is a happy camper.

Even if you give him higher rates with an ADW or betting house offshore, he won't go, as it is an emotional lift to have you seat reserved in the box seat area or the carrousel area in the race book. Getting perks like free programs feeds the psyche of the mind. The Meadows does a great job keeping them happy (also like refusing to bring in the 10 cent supers). These guys love going after the carryovers so in effect the track makes it a little harder by having only 50-cent supers available (which these guys balked when they made it a $1).

[baconswitchfarm]

I am sure Scotttrade would cut you a better deal if you were going to trade 500 million in stock as opposed to 500k. This is no different than horse betting. That is the same percentage increase as a 5k bettor as compared to a 5 million a year harness bettor. The secrecy is because there is always retribution for places that give the highest rebates. A friend of mine stopped playing at track A and went to track B who offered a better deal. Down the road when track A found out he was playing at track B, they then raised their signal fee to track B as a punishment. In their mind they owned that player and he was stolen away. In reality only their greed and short sightedness drove the player away . They work on the same margins and could have offered that player the same deal.That is why no one advertises the top level rebates.

[cecil127]

maaaan, i got a lot to learn. hope this business is still around when i get it all figured out.:D

[melman]

cecil---I'm NOT asking how much you bet per week. That's NONE of my business. Let's just say however you are a $1,000 per week bettor. If so or even a $500 a week bettor you are "leaving money on the table" without checking for rebates. Check with any of the three sources I listed. They are all HANA board members. Personally I would like to see much lower takeout rates for ALL. Say 8% for WPS and 12% for all other bets. That's just not the way it is and I don't see it changing anytime soon. It's also not all the tracks fault. Most of the time the big shots in state government will not allow any reduction in takeout. I know Tioga Downs would have gone lower but the state will not allow it. I think that NYRA would lower the take if they could. Same problem---state big shots.

[badcompany]

I am sure Scotttrade would cut you a better deal if you were going to trade 500 million in stock as opposed to 500k. This is no different than horse betting. That is the same percentage increase as a 5k bettor as compared to a 5 million a year harness bettor. The secrecy is because there is always retribution for places that give the highest rebates. A friend of mine stopped playing at track A and went to track B who offered a better deal. Down the road when track A found out he was playing at track B, they then raised their signal fee to track B as a punishment. In their mind they owned that player and he was stolen away. In reality only their greed and short sightedness drove the player away . They work on the same margins and could have offered that player the same deal.That is why no one advertises the top level rebates.

Yes, the amount you borrow determines the interest rate you pay. More money borrowed equates to less interest paid. I have no issue with that. That's the way it should be.

Of course, this only comes into play if you actually trade on margin, as it is not a requirement to do so, as opposed to horseracing where you have to pay the takeout regardless. So, the rebate always comes into play.

In stock trading there are trading fees, but, if you trade on a long timeframe as I do, the costs are completely insignificant.

The issue with ADWs is transparency. Guys here refer to them as "Rebate Shops," yet when you go to one of the sites you see nothing there about rebates.

You don't find that a bit strange? While your explanation for the secrecy makes sense, it also exposes horseracing as a small time game.

[badcompany]

maaaan, i got a lot to learn. hope this business is still around when i get it all figured out.:D

I've turned several, non horseracing friends, on to Saratoga. To a person, they've all had a great time. I'll be there for about a month, this summer, myself.

That said, given the current state of the game, I can't, in good faith, recommend anyone do this as an income stream.

[melman]

badcompany--Sad for me to say this but I agree with your last line 100% Horse racng really is a small time business. Very much a niche market. You can site NYRA as the exception but that's about it. For us s-bred guys there is some hope. Balmoral is having HUGE gains in handle for quite a long period of time now. The 15% take on pic4.5 bets has really caught on. Plus the lower min bets on many exotics. But as Pandy has pointed out the major factor is Balmoral has the lowest % of winning fav's in harness racing. By far. Most, not all but most bettors want a shot at $100 ex's and up and not a steady diet of $20 ex's and even lower.

[baconswitchfarm]

Racing is a small time business in the grand scheme of things. Disclosure of rebate levels is way down the list of why.

[wilderness]

from July 14, 1943 Harness Horse (FWIW, Maywood Park opened for Chicago Harness racing in 1944):

Pari-Mutuel Bill for Illinois Passes With Substantial Majority
We are indebted to Hon. Henry Knauff of Ladd, Ill., member of the Illinois Legislature, and owner of Siskiyou Stock Farm, for a report on the proposed pari-mutuel bill for the State of Illinois. The bill passed both houses of the Legislature with large majority, and needs only the signature of Governor Green to become a law. Informed sources state that there is no doubt but what the Governor will sign the bill.

The highlights of the new measure are that the commission, popularly referred to as ''The Take'' is 11% of which 3% goes to the state and 8% to the tracks. The bill provides that money received by the state is to go to a fund, to be allotted by the state to county fairs, for an Agricultural Premium Fund, and be allocated to county fairs for rehabilitation purposes up to $1,000 per year.

The bill further provides for a Race Commission of three members to be appointed by the Governor, for two, four and six year terms, each new member to be appointed for a six year term thereafter. The bill provides for pari-mutuel betting for all counties of the state with the exception of Cook County (Chicago) and excluding racing between the first of August and the twelfth of September, which is construed to mean that no running races will be held during the period named in conflict with fair races. The bill also provides for night racing, if desired.

The feeling of the sponsors of the bill which are in the main. members of the Illinois Trotting Horse Fraternity, is that much good will accrue to the standardbred horse, both from a racing standpoint as well as breeding interests. The Harness Horse extends, congratulations to the men who have fought for and successfully handled the enactment of the bill.
end of the quote

The track gets 8% of which a portion goes towards purse.
The horsemen were NOT guaranteed 50% of that take-out portion back them.

[Robert Goren]

cecil---I'm NOT asking how much you bet per week. That's NONE of my business. Let's just say however you are a $1,000 per week bettor. If so or even a $500 a week bettor you are "leaving money on the table" without checking for rebates. Check with any of the three sources I listed. They are all HANA board members. Personally I would like to see much lower takeout rates for ALL. Say 8% for WPS and 12% for all other bets. That's just not the way it is and I don't see it changing anytime soon. It's also not all the tracks fault. Most of the time the big shots in state government will not allow any reduction in takeout. I know Tioga Downs would have gone lower but the state will not allow it. I think that NYRA would lower the take if they could. Same problem---state big shots.Why would the state of NY care if the NYRA wants to lower the takeouts as long they get to keep their %. Lets face there is one group standing in the way of lower takeouts and that group is the horsemen. They believe lower takeouts means lower purses. They also believe that the takeout rate only marginally effects the handle. It doesn't take more than short look at CA racing and its takeout rate hikes to figure where how the horsemen feel about takeout rates. Horsemen will claim their influence with state government is limited, but whatever it is, it is lot more than the gamblers have. Of that there is doubt.