AQU Sunday 4-22-2012 (Picks)

[MitchS]

Aqueduct's XL and PDF racing sheets are ready to download for Sunday at the website. Have a great weekend.

Mitch

[MitchS]

Just realized that I didn't set the odds line to default before I uploaded to the website tonight. This discussion is intended for people that may not be aware of the odds line on the sheet and or how I personally use it.

First off, before I upload to the website I set the odds line to default. Default on the odds line matches the number of horses in the race. Tonight, I forgot to match this up. The people that are unaware of this odds line may be confused and the reason for this post.

To set to default and match the number of horses in the race. To the right of FS ( on the far right of the XL sheet ) is a number. Let's look at the first race at Aqueduct. That number says 5, but in actuality there are 9 horses in the race. Change that number to 9. That sets the odds line to default. Repeat for each race.

Personally, I always start at default. After I've handicapped the race and adjusted for scratches, I'll adjust this number down to the proper amount of contenders for each individual race in my estimation. I don't go crazy with this adjustment as to setting it for 2 or 3 horses in a 12 horse field. I only adjust this number down to horses that have no consideration for winning the race which usually eliminates a few horses per race depending on the sizes of the field. Some races there may be no eliminations. Again only eliminate ( adjust down this number ) to horses that have no shot at winning the race. All horses that have an outside shot at winning the race must be keep in to create an accurate line. Play with it and you'll get good at these adjustments and you'll start creating excellent value bets for yourself.

Have an awesome day at Aqueduct :)

Mitch