AQU Race 4 odds drop

[Robert Goren]

I bet the :7: at 2/1 at 1 MTP. It went to 8/5 as they loaded. End up at 3/5. I don't I have seen that happen at a NYRA track. Oh, yes, the horse won by 2.

[lamboguy]

I bet the :7: at 2/1 at 1 MTP. It went to 8/5 as they loaded. End up at 3/5. I don't I have seen that happen at a NYRA track. Oh, yes, the horse won by 2.
what's the matter with you, don't you know that's the simulcast money?

[davew]

happens all the time - don't bitch about it you had a winner
look at your responses in the linked thread

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=91617&highlight=pool+manipulation

[aaron]

Its been happening more than it should recently.

[HuggingTheRail]

Win pool was approx $50,000+ with 1 MTP 2-1
Win pool was approx $150,000+ at the off 3-5

Someone can do the math, but off the top of my head, I would guess 60-70% of the $100,000 bet in the final minute was on the 7

Of course, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction - in this case, at 1MTP, the 4 was 6-5, and drifted to 5-2 at the off.

[davew]

Win pool was approx $50,000+ with 1 MTP 2-1
Win pool was approx $150,000+ at the off 3-5

Someone can do the math, but off the top of my head, I would guess 60-70% of the $100,000 bet in the final minute was on the 7

Of course, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction - in this case, at 1MTP, the 4 was 6-5, and drifted to 5-2 at the off.

I would take that bet - the win pool for the race closed at $128,828 by my sources with total bet on 7 being $63,287 for win. The total wps pool was $190,677. I do not know if this is blended pool and how they convert Canadian money to US dollars.

[lamboguy]

Win pool was approx $50,000+ with 1 MTP 2-1
Win pool was approx $150,000+ at the off 3-5

Someone can do the math, but off the top of my head, I would guess 60-70% of the $100,000 bet in the final minute was on the 7

Of course, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction - in this case, at 1MTP, the 4 was 6-5, and drifted to 5-2 at the off.
those simulcast players are sharp

[Robert Goren]

I was not bitching. I never bitch when I have the winner at any price. I know how hard they are come by. It does happen all the time at small tracks. I just never noticed that kind of fall off at a NYRA track before which was why I brought it up. If it is 2/1 at 1MTP you generally can count on getting at least 3/2 in NY. A fall to 3/5 means some serious money came in late. Now places Charlestown are a different ball of wax. Maybe somebody will find out what caused that much money to come in that horse.

[Not4Love]

Same thing is happening at Indiana Downs. Always with the horse that grabs the lead early.

[Robert Goren]

According to Equibase the WPS pool was $227,077 for race 4. That is about an average pool size at AQU today. The mystery continues.

[Robert Fischer]

If someone is waiting to make a large size wager on a horse at the last second, that horse's true probability of winning is on average going to be higher than what you thought.

You aren't really getting ripped off.

Either you knew what they know and you thought you were getting a DREAM bet on a 2-1 that should be 2-5
or
you thought the horses should be 9-5 and were getting 2-1 , and you didn't know that the horse really should be 2-5.

The times when you get ripped off are when some reckless gambler "randomly" decides to make a very large bet on your horse at the last second. This is a rarity.

In this case I would say the most likely scenario is that Repole bet heavy win late because he knew his 3yo maiden was much the best.

[Robert Goren]

Same thing is happening at Indiana Downs. Always with the horse that grabs the lead early. It happens here in Nebraska about once a day. But the total WPS pool for the week is lucky to 227K. I have just never seen it at a track with large pools before. It is not going effecting my wagering at NYRA tracks or anything. I just thought it was strange.

[davew]

another adw tells me $75360 out of $153390 win pool - so much for consistency

[Robert Goren]

If someone is waiting to make a large size wager on a horse at the last second, that horse's true probability of winning is on average going to be higher than what you thought.

You aren't really getting ripped off.

Either you knew what they know and you thought you were getting a DREAM bet on a 2-1 that should be 2-5
or
you thought the horses should be 9-5 and were getting 2-1 , and you didn't know that the horse really should be 2-5.

The times when you get ripped off are when some reckless gambler "randomly" decides to make a very large bet on your horse at the last second. This is a rarity.

In this case I would say the most likely scenario is that Repole bet heavy win late because he knew his 3yo maiden was much the best. That is the way I look at it. When I saw that the horse was 3/5 during the running of the race, I knew I had the winner.

[Robert Fischer]

That is the way I look at it. When I saw that the horse was 3/5 during the running of the race, I knew I had the winner.

It still feels like a ripoff if you thought you were getting $6 and you only get $3.40.

[porchy44]

I have seen horses odds drop occassionally after they cross the finish line. No excuse for that.

[PaceAdvantage]

what's the matter with you, don't you know that's the simulcast money?Instead of repeating the same old sarcastic line every time this subject comes up, why don't you tell us exactly what you think is behind these major odds drops.

Don't hold anything back...I want to hear it all...

[lamboguy]

Instead of repeating the same old sarcastic line every time this subject comes up, why don't you tell us exactly what you think is behind these major odds drops.

Don't hold anything back...I want to hear it all...i'm serious, i called up aqueduct today after the race and spoke to a gentleman in tote and he told me he already had 20 complaints prior to my call, he said the money came from a simulcast outlet. i have no reason not to believe him, do you?

[PaceAdvantage]

i'm serious, i called up aqueduct today after the race and spoke to a gentleman in tote and he told me he already had 20 complaints prior to my call, he said the money came from a simulcast outlet. i have no reason not to believe him, do you?It sounds like you don't believe it, the way you post:

what's the matter with you, don't you know that's the simulcast money?andthose simulcast players are sharp

So what do you think the story really is? Obviously the money is either coming from on track or from a simulcast outlet. That's the only two places it could possibly come from.

But from the tone of your replies, it sounds as if you have additional theories...forget about where the money originates from...it sounds as if you have ideas on WHY this kind of money materializes the way it does...

So, tell us...

[lamboguy]

It sounds like you don't believe it, the way you post:

and

So what do you think the story really is? Obviously the money is either coming from on track or from a simulcast outlet. That's the only two places it could possibly come from.

But from the tone of your replies, it sounds as if you have additional theories...forget about where the money originates from...it sounds as if you have ideas on WHY this kind of money materializes the way it does...

So, tell us...i honestly have no idea. from my best understanding there is someone that works for the tracks in new york that looks for possible wagering and canceling after the start of races. the incident that happened today is being looked at now, that much i do know. instead of speculating what may or may not have happened, i am going to wait for the report on this incident form the people that run the show over there. the only thing that we know is that this didn't take place at the track.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm going to assume all the money was in before the gate opened. You should assume that as well.

With that much assumed, then what?

[Robert Fischer]

may have been the owner.

[lamboguy]

I'm going to assume all the money was in before the gate opened. You should assume that as well.

With that much assumed, then what?
then there is nothing wrong. i happened to be out of my house when this race ran, but i got a phone call right after the race from a friend that knows that i usually watch for these types of late odds changes. i haven't seen this type of odds change in NEW YORK on 2 separate horses in a race for over 5 years now.

there are things that can happen today when a horse breaks through the gate and everyone that is sitting behind a computer cancels their bet on the horse before the race starts because those horses very rarely run a good race. a place like TVG advertises that they allow this.

[lamboguy]

one more thing that has changed in the last few years. the television signals that are sent out to racetracks all over the country are all done with dish network which has about a 9 second delay. most pools are completely locked out 8 seconds after the bell rings and the race starts. that would eliminate the person that tries to call the break or cancel the break unless someone is sitting in Aqueduct with a cell phone to a simulcast facility calling the break. unlikely though.

every single adw that i have ever dealt with here locks out the race without any delay at all. there is no after the bell betting from any adw as far as i know.

[Cholly]

Robert,

In the future you might want to consider the double will-pays when estimating what kind of price to expect. Using the favorite from the previous race, the anticipated odds for your horse were 4-5. The drop to 3-5 was a tad severe, but the doubles indicated the price would probably go lower. It's not foolproof, but at NYRA tracks the double pay-outs using the favorite from the previous race are usually a good indicator.

[MightBeSosa]

The betting has gotten quite peculiar in NY over the last few years. I know there are crew(s) are running computer pgms that makes large win/exacta bets very late, but there are also some very large punches coming in early.

Horse in the 9th today that I was interesting in betting, went 8-1 to 5/2 with 6 mtp. What kind of nut bets like that? Closed 9/2 and ran 2nd. Bookmakers laying off bets they have no interest in holding?

Saw a very large LATE win bet on a fave last week that lost. In fact quite a few of those kind of bets lose.

[BlueShoe]

Obviously the money is either coming from on track or from a simulcast outlet. That's the only two places it could possibly come from.
Another source could be a whale betting from home. His computer model tells him the horse's theoretical win chance probability and calculates wager size to drop the odds to the point of border line profitability. Many of these guys are reputed to be playing for rebates, so the huge wager might give him a tiny edge. On the other side of the coin, many of these huge late plunge types lose, and when they do it pushes the price of the winner up, sometimes way up. When you get a 10 dollar payoff on a nag that you bet at 5-2 a couple of minutes before post it makes for a happy feeling.

[classhandicapper]

If someone is waiting to make a large size wager on a horse at the last second, that horse's true probability of winning is on average going to be higher than what you thought.

You aren't really getting ripped off.

Either you knew what they know and you thought you were getting a DREAM bet on a 2-1 that should be 2-5
or
you thought the horses should be 9-5 and were getting 2-1 , and you didn't know that the horse really should be 2-5.

The times when you get ripped off are when some reckless gambler "randomly" decides to make a very large bet on your horse at the last second. This is a rarity.

In this case I would say the most likely scenario is that Repole bet heavy win late because he knew his 3yo maiden was much the best.

Insightful post.

[MightBeSosa]

heres a good real time case, 5th Aqu. Fave is 3/5 in the doubles . 8/5 with 8 mtp. A lock to get pounded late. If you think you're gonna get 8/5, you aren't thinking.

[BlueShoe]

Fave 3rd at even money. Odds only drifted downward late in the betting. Even money off of a 6-5 ML and little real betting action indicated "ice". Chalk that should have been odds on plus being dead on the board usually lose and are bad plays. The 5-2 second choice winner was bet, cut in half from a 5-1 ML.

[cj]

If you are really going to bet low prices heavily, it makes more sense to bet them early, or at least in the middle, to keep out the conditional wagers and those that use a manual form of conditional wagering. There really is no value to waiting until the last second.