4/20 -- WO/KEE/AQU -- Live

[setup]

WO R1-2

not much value in this double

R1

:3:, Bear's Tizz
:6:, Straight Line

Should run 1-2
Going to let the 1ster beat me.

R2

:2:, Mr. Rod: logical horse but why ride Rainford when your horse is ready to win

:4:, Clarkstoncharm: figures to be loose again in a very bad field


*************************

KEE R1-2

R1:

:3:, Right Sassy: has been the distance and will be running strongly late

exotics: :3: / :5:,:4:,:2:


R2:

:1::1a:, Castrator entry
5, Love Rains

[setup]

Woodbine T-bred - Race 1
# Win Place Show
6 $4.70 $2.90 $2.10
3 . $3.90 $2.70
5 . . $3.20

$2.00 Exacta 6-3 $14.30


Woodbine T-bred - Race 2
# Win Place Show
2 $4.00 $2.50 $2.10
4 . $3.20 $2.40
1 . . $2.90$2.00

Exacta 2-4 $10.20

$2.00 Double 6/2 $14.00


**********************

Keeneland - Race 1
# Win Place Show
4 $5.80 $3.20 $2.60
3 . $4.40 $3.20
1 . . $3.60

$1.00 Exacta 4-3 $15.00

Keeneland - Race 2
# Win Place Show
5 $7.20 $3.40 $2.20
1 . $2.80 $2.10
4 . . $2.20

$1.00 Exacta 5-1 $10.10


Would've gotten it all if the :3: wins the 1st @ KEE

Not exactly stellar payouts but just taking what they give us.

[setup]

Aqu R3:

:4: / :6:

[Robert Fischer]

this 3rd race @ Kee is a guessing game. I'm not putting a dollar in the pool.

However the :1: Primo has been training forwardly for Wayne Catalano over the track since being Gelded after his first start. On the board at 11-1 and offers value in a field with no standouts.

[setup]

WO R3:

chalk parade continues

:7:, Wish for Success

over

:8:,:5:,:1:

[Expotential]

Never fails, Playing the Key on the 7 bites me on the *** yet again...

[setup]

The only way the 1 could've won the race, could've beat the 7, is by getting a perfect trip. And DeRosa gave it to her by dueling with the 5 rather than sitting and winning for fun.

At these prices, it's not worth going deep.

Edit: If I know the stewards up there, the 5 is coming down.

[Expotential]

The only way the 1 could've won the race, could've beat the 7, is by getting a perfect trip. And DeRosa gave it to her by dueling with the 5 rather than sitting and winning for fun.

At these prices, it's not worth going deep.

Edit: If I know the stewards up there, the 5 is coming down.

haha, looks like you know them pretty well

[setup]

WO R4:

between

:2:, Jet Set Exec: should be able to stalk and get 1st run

:8:, Michael's Bad Boy and :9:, Delaforce, will both be running late, along with :3:, Captain Raucous, if there any kind of early action.

[setup]

AQU R5:
back to the chalk parade

:3: / :7:, :9:

[setup]

WO R5:

:9:, Sister Gail: fits an angle I use but I'm afraid that the :1: and :6: will press her early. Conditional win wager: 10:1

[setup]

Now starting to get hammered.

KEE R5:

:4: / :2:,:3:,:5:

[setup]

WO R6:

:6: / :4:,:5:,:9:

[setup]

AQU R7:

:7: / :1:,:2:,:4:

I need a heady ride from Napravnik: she's got to sit rather than duel.

[setup]

WO R7:

:8: / :5:,:6:,:7:

[setup]

WO R8

:1:,:1a: / :2:,:3:

[setup]

KEE R8:

tough race
but I think :8:, Hilarium, can take these on the pace

[setup]

Maker special:horse that has never shown speed before wires the field. 6 wins for Leparoux

[setup]

AQU R9:

wacky odds in this race. I was interested in :8:, To the Point but only @ > 10:1. The idea is that she'll sit behind the :10:, In Her Hey Day, but TTP doesn't really like to rate. The :10: is interesting @ 15:1 conditional wager.
:2:, the chalk, probably ends up picking up the pieces here.

[setup]

4/21

************************************

WO R1-2 -- double

R 1

:5:, Get to It: some nice races and another one should win it. Not going any deeper as there's no real value.

R 2

:2:, No Appreciation: 5.5F should be ideal for this one (as 6F is just a bit too long).

:6:, Southern Executive: unknown factor but the juicer trains, Husbands rides, and getting bet in doubles -- must use

[setup]

Lovely the $12.5k GP claim gets an inside run, and Husbands holds off the whipping and driving Emma, with a cool hand ride.

[setup]

AQU R2:

:3: / :1a:, :6:, :9:

[setup]

Nice to see Garcia PUNK Castellano. Too bad Javier couldn't hold the place for me.

[setup]

WO R2: They're not taking any prisoners today: the hard-driving Emma runs down the looked-to-be-home 2 just before the wire. Way to ride girl.:rolleyes:

[setup]

WO R3:

Action bet:
Small win wager on :8:, Riamal Al Sahara: this sucker is going to pop for big balloons at some point and I don't want to miss it.

Saver ex: :1: / :8:

[setup]

KEE R5:

alive to :1: and :11:, in the double.

The contenders: 1,5,10,11 have a common factor: they won with favorable setups. The other one, 3, at least didn't get a perfect trip. Going 9F, I like to play horses that have shown they can handle the distance: this would be :1:, :3:. Pletcher's horse, :10:, is getting all the money and won fairly easily 1st out. Going to let that one show me it can get 9F.

:1: / :3:,:10:,:11:

[Robert Fischer]

1, and 10?pletcher look best

didn't look @ 8 enough to eliminate

[TexasDolly]

Another good call.
TD

[setup]

Keeneland - Race 5
# Win Place Show
3 $10.60 $4.80 $3.40
1 . $7.00 $4.40
2 . . $12.40

$1.00 Exacta 3-1 $26.10


I knew the Pletcher was a fraud and the 5 got a beyond perfect trip last out. Too bad the 11 didn't run a little better.

[setup]

AQU R7:

between :12: and :4: (doesn't like to win but was against the grain last out)
of course, I have to get sucked in and use 1st time turf Dutrow, :6:, as well

[Robert Fischer]

r7 @ keeneland looks like it may actually be playable.

[setup]

TYPO: there is no :12:; meant the :11:

Aqueduct - Race 7
# Win Place Show
4 $5.90 $3.10 $2.30
11 . $3.60 $2.60
6 . . $2.70

$1.00 Exacta 4-11 $12.30
$1.00 Trifecta 4-11-6 $33.00

[setup]

KEE R7-8 Double

R 7

:11: Lady Aspen (preferred), :2:, Mystical Star

R 8

:8:, Indulgence, :2:, Wild About Marie

smaller with :4:, Well Deserved

[Robert Fischer]

:7:

[Robert Fischer]

^ needs a drop in class and a better setup.
Mystical Star is a nice horse.

[setup]

In retrospect, that was an easy TRI to hit -- if you didn't like Flex; which I didn't, at all. As it was, Prado carried the 11 wide on the 1st turn; pretty much intentionally.

But my focus was more on the 8th and I was just trying to get to it live in the doubles.

[Robert Fischer]

doing good^

kentucky reign @ aqu looks like a bear.

[Robert Fischer]

aqu 1346

[setup]

WO R8:

:1:, Classic Bryce

[Robert Fischer]

incredicat too fit for these maidens

[setup]

YET ANOTHER blown ride by Da Silva. He comes off the rail to bid 3 wide and can't get the chalk loose in poodle fractions. If he stays on the rail, let's 4 bid at the 2 alone and bids midstretch, he has a good shot to win it. Last year, Eurico was riding real well; not the case so far in 2012

[setup]

Talk about a BAD BEAT: the double to the :4: was paying $138 for $1:bang::bang:

WOw.

And, Johnny V is styling it, with a hand ride, in the lane, as Leparoux cruises by.

[Robert Fischer]

damn^

[Robert Fischer]

1 and 3 standout in the jerome
tough race with a few others eligible to step up

[Robert Fischer]

Lumber guy ran huge in the wood.

[setup]

Here's my rundown after 5 minutes of looking @ the Lexington:

numeric order

:1:, Morgan's Guerilla: HUGE against the grain effort last out. Cuts back today and gets the rail. If he can handle POLY, will be very tough.

:2:, Summer Front: 3 very nice races; not crazy about the low odds, however

just below these

:6:, Holiday Promise: bid and 'bounced' going 9F; cut back should put this one right there.

Baffert or Romans run, I lose.

[setup]

Lumber guy ran huge in the wood.

No time to look at the Jerome; I'm doing these on the fly.

[Robert Fischer]

:11: should crush these

[Robert Fischer]

wesley ward

[setup]

WARD: the CASTRATOR -- strikes again

I need to watch the replay and see what Dominguez was up to; outside of not being able to get a lead change in the lane. He might've been best.

Nice preparation by Maker.:rolleyes:

[setup]

One more:

AQU R10

:8:, Mutiny: conditional win wager: 12:1

[Robert Fischer]

kee 10 atlantic tap

should be in excellent shape here

[Robert Fischer]

5 10 11

[setup]

4/22

**********************

WO R1:

:5: / :4:, :7:

[setup]

WO R2:

I like :6:, Aone Saucy Miss but the 1/5 shot :5:, Anywhere, will be very tough.

exacta: :5: / :6:

[setup]

WO R3:

an example of why WO is real tough early on in the year:

:1:, Infinity Obo: supposed to win off his last race, when he chased and forged to the lead, only to get run down by an inside closer. Breaks inside today and should be able to get an absolutely perfect trip. But I don't trust him @ low odds

:7:, Malibu Skyline: new gelding that wintered in Florida; dropping in class, significantly.

:6:, Corredors Classic: my longshot: some good races but probably one of those that doesn't like to win. Should be prominent early. Worth a win bet @ > 20:1.

:8:, Pay the Band: wide 1st/last out in same race as the 1. Never threatened, claimed and I get a feeling that this one is on the improve.

don't like the :3:. if he wins or is 2nd, I lose

[setup]

KEE R3:

:2:, Sokitumi Samurai: worth another chance; last not as bad as it looks

:6:, Tycoon: dropping; not much but not much in here

:9:, Let Th Kitten Purr: Ward/Ramsey chalk; not impressed but she can certainly get it done

[setup]

Ran 7-3-1-6 @ WO. The 1 and 6 easily outran the 3 turning for home YET that one is able to come back and spoil my exotics. Way it goes.

*********************************

This went well. Didn't bother with the 9 (chalk) on top and got some decent exact/tri payoffs.

Keeneland - Race 3
# Win Place Show
6 $8.60 $4.40 $3.00
2 . $5.60 $3.00
9 . . $2.60

$1.00 Exacta 6-2 $20.50
$0.50 Trifecta 6-2-9 $21.25

[setup]

WO R4:

:3:, Medidocihospisurg: 10:1 with 11 min to post is a huge overlay. Not staying there, unfortunately. Conditional win bet @ 6:1

[setup]

Puzzling ride, to say the least, by Campbell.

[setup]

Apparently some equipment broke on the 6 horse, the rider conveyed this to the others in the race, and Campbell got off the rail and took back.

[setup]

KEE R5:

:6:, Animal Spirits: appears to lay over this field. Never a good idea to go on about an odds on horse but this one will be very hard to beat.

:4:, Malibu Way and :7:, Sachem Spirit, are the other two here.

:6: over :4:, :7:

double: :6: / :1:, Santonio D'oro

no prices here

[setup]

I thought this was paceless, and the 7 would get it easy up front but 25.74, 51.25, 116.26, 140.41 are not exactly numbers you'd anticipate going 9F.

[setup]

WO R7:

:9:, Has it Now

with :1:,:8:,:11:

Leaving the other Casse horse (:4:) out. Hope this do me in.

[setup]

I don't think the 9, getting hit to 7:2 late, even finished the race. Dropped back steadily before they even hit the turn. :D

ran 3-8-11

[Robert Fischer]

Who do you like in the Ben Ali @ Kee ??

I'm clueless right now. Trying to watch some video.

Slow day so far. Haven't made my goal.

[Robert Fischer]

2 6 7

[TexasDolly]

Keen
R 9 4,5 to win
exb 3,4,5
TD

[Robert Fischer]

5 should be best in the 9th. I'll be passing and watching for him to find trouble or mis-time. May get him next time on the bet-back.
6 and 9 also figure.

569

[Robert Fischer]

:5: got the awful ride, but aside for a middle move on the rail that in which all the progress got wasted(and never being urged at any of the critical moments) he didn't do any running.
no watch list for you :p