Bodemeister's Beyer

[Scofield]

Alternation-1.49.94-Older handicap horses.
Bodemeister-1.48.71-Post 11 going into the turn.

A full second faster.

[Scofield]

Alternation-1.49.94-Older handicap horses.
Bodemeister-1.48.71-Post 11 going into the turn.

A full second faster.

105 Beyer for BM.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Unless Alternation bounced off consecutive tops that figure seems conservative doesn't it?

[Valuist]

Like I said on the Ark Derby thread, something doesn't add up. Based on the time differential, there should be an 11 point spread between Alternation and Bodemeister. This was not a track drying out from rain, or one in which rain occurred to make comparison useless.

They gave Alternation a 100 and Bodemeister a 105. My guess is they are purely projecting based on the also rans in the Ark Derby. The winning margin was 9.5 lengths, which translates to 16 Beyer points at 9 furlongs. But 3 year olds are still growing and could be moving forward. I don't think one could've projected less than a 100 for the Oaklawn Handicap; the race had the SA Cap and Donn winners in there. But a 3 year old who blows out a field by nearly 10 lengths has run a very big fig. IMO, worthy of a 111.

[KingChas]

Alternation-1.49.94-Older handicap horses.
Bodemeister-1.48.71-Post 11 going into the turn.

A full second faster.

Looking at it another way ;

6f mark to the finish line at the 1&1/8 distance.

Alternation- 112.59/149.94= 37.35
Bodemeister- 111.36/148.71= 37.35

Interesting ;)

[ronsmac]

Like I said on the Ark Derby thread, something doesn't add up. Based on the time differential, there should be an 11 point spread between Alternation and Bodemeister. This was not a track drying out from rain, or one in which rain occurred to make comparison useless.

They gave Alternation a 100 and Bodemeister a 105. My guess is they are purely projecting based on the also rans in the Ark Derby. The winning margin was 9.5 lengths, which translates to 16 Beyer points at 9 furlongs. But 3 year olds are still growing and could be moving forward. I don't think one could've projected less than a 100 for the Oaklawn Handicap; the race had the SA Cap and Donn winners in there. But a 3 year old who blows out a field by nearly 10 lengths has run a very big fig. IMO, worthy of a 111.
I agree with you. I played the Oaklawn meet exclusively and I projected a 112 or 113 for the Ark . derby. Something is amiss.

[cj]

See his thread, same discussion:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=93122