Hoofless_Wonder
04-14-2012, 08:19 AM
Today's 7th race at Oaklawn has :7: Astrology returning to the races as the M/L favorite after an 8 month layoff, which provides a nice example of the "returning class horse on the undercard", often seen during the Triple Crown chase.
I made a Derby future bet on Astrology last year, only to watch him skip the Derby, run 3rd in the Preakness (at 15-1), and then close out the year with his only two lifetime off-the-board finishes in the Iowa Derby and Haskell.
My first impression was that this old plug never achieved his potential (or at least the hype of his potential), and this race might provide some value betting against him, especially considering his dead slow works in California. :2: Moonshine Mullin looks good, and maybe :6: A Student for a little value.
But then I looked and saw Nehro in the 10th, who recently won his comeback race easily for Asmussen, and wondered if the stars might be aligned today. (yeah, I know - Nehro is a better horse than Astrology, but the trainer pattern is similar - long layoff, wins at route).
Then I see Asmussen only has the outsider Sabercat in the Arkansas Derby, and that makes me wonder if Astrology is spotted today as a way for Steve & co. to spend some time in the winner's circle? Or is this the start of another disappointing campaign of money burning?
The intangibles seem to loom larger on the big race days.... :confused:
I made a Derby future bet on Astrology last year, only to watch him skip the Derby, run 3rd in the Preakness (at 15-1), and then close out the year with his only two lifetime off-the-board finishes in the Iowa Derby and Haskell.
My first impression was that this old plug never achieved his potential (or at least the hype of his potential), and this race might provide some value betting against him, especially considering his dead slow works in California. :2: Moonshine Mullin looks good, and maybe :6: A Student for a little value.
But then I looked and saw Nehro in the 10th, who recently won his comeback race easily for Asmussen, and wondered if the stars might be aligned today. (yeah, I know - Nehro is a better horse than Astrology, but the trainer pattern is similar - long layoff, wins at route).
Then I see Asmussen only has the outsider Sabercat in the Arkansas Derby, and that makes me wonder if Astrology is spotted today as a way for Steve & co. to spend some time in the winner's circle? Or is this the start of another disappointing campaign of money burning?
The intangibles seem to loom larger on the big race days.... :confused: