KY Derby handicapping factors

[horses4courses]

Need some help here.

Have two handicapping factors (not necessarily important ones) for the KY Derby.
They are as follows:

(1) Horse wins his last prep race as the favorite

(2) Horse has never run on dirt before

Which would be the more important factor to you in handicapping the KY Derby?

It's not a trick question.
I see one as more relevant than the other, but someone else told me different.

[redshift1]

IMO, never raced on dirt. The question being why have the connections avoided dirt races?

[horses4courses]

IMO, never raced on dirt. The question being why have the connections avoided dirt races?

Thanks for your input....I was thinking the same thing.

[Some_One]

On #1, if you get Mazur's guide, the rule is a good last race, top 3, win not necessary.

On #2, to say never on dirt, how many horses have qualified for that angle? I can understand if it is some reference to poly tracks, either way sample size would prevent any type of definite answer I would believe.

Need some help here.

Have two handicapping factors (not necessarily important ones) for the KY Derby.
They are as follows:

(1) Horse wins his last prep race as the favorite

(2) Horse has never run on dirt before

Which would be the more important factor to you in handicapping the KY Derby?

It's not a trick question.
I see one as more relevant than the other, but someone else told me different.

[Robert Goren]

The best way to get a winner the derby. Go with whatever Pace says.

[lamboguy]

figure out witch prep race was the best one and pick your horses from that race.

this year until today, i thought the WOOD was the best race, the ARKANSAS DERBY looked pretty good. so i am going to have to make a decision.

the two worst that i have seen were the HAWTHORNE + LOUISIANA DERBY. I would stay away from those horses.

[burnsy]

I agree, the wood is one of my favorite preps too. i think the pace was very legit and faster than it looks. the first quarter was actually faster than what trinniburg did in the bay shore at just 7 furlongs and the half was comparable. the track was not that fast that day, the carter was by far the fastest race but then again those are the best horses that ran at aqueduct that day. i sort of think there is an upside to alpha. he seems to be running good every start this year and he has the running profile to be coming hard at the end. if the derby has the usual pace senario it will set up good for alpha. of course i could be all wrong but i'm suspect of that florida derby field. everyone is high on union rags but i don't think reveron or take charge indy are that good. bad trip and all it worries me that union rags could not at least catch reveron in that race. in my opinion hes got to do WAY better next time out and if hes one of the favorites its a dicey bet on top. the most i can see myself using union rags is in exoctics. the west coast looks good this year too. bodemeister, creative cause and i'll have another seem pretty strong when all the preps are considered. the bluegrass is a race i can never figure out but i wonder how dullahan will fare on the dirt suface and hanson may be part of the pace in the derby.

[gm10]

My absolute favourite is finishing speed over the last 2F when running over 9F+. Anything that hasn't managed a 16 meters/second final 2F is an automatic throw-out (or >16.5 m/s on the poly).

A few examples for 2012


Bodemeister ... 16.2 ... keep
Dullahan .... 16.22 (dirt), 16.85 (poly) ... keep
Gemologist ... 16.03 ... borderline
Hansen .... 16.03 ... borderline
Secret Circle ... 15.77 ... throw-out

For 2011

Animal Kingdom 16.50 poly
Nehro 16.05
Mucho Macho Man 15.99
Shackleford 15.88
Santiva 16.7 poly

[Sinner369]

My absolute favourite is finishing speed over the last 2F when running over 9F+. Anything that hasn't managed a 16 meters/second final 2F is an automatic throw-out (or >16.5 m/s on the poly).

A few examples for 2012


Bodemeister ... 16.2 ... keep
Dullahan .... 16.22 (dirt), 16.85 (poly) ... keep
Gemologist ... 16.03 ... borderline
Hansen .... 16.03 ... borderline
Secret Circle ... 15.77 ... throw-out

For 2011

Animal Kingdom 16.50 poly
Nehro 16.05
Mucho Macho Man 15.99
Shackleford 15.88
Santiva 16.7 poly



gm10:

Forgave me for my lousy math but how did you calculate that.............???

[gm10]

gm10:

Forgave me for my lousy math but how did you calculate that.............???

2 furlongs = 402 meters

So for example, 24 seconds for the final 2 furlongs corresponds to 402/24 = 16.75 meters/second. (That would be very fast for a dirt route).

A difference of 0.1 corresponds to 1 length during the final 2F, because 0.1 meters/second * 24 seconds = 2.4 meters = around 1 length.

That makes this a very easy to use tool. For example, Bodemeister (16.2) is 4 lengths faster than Secret Circle (15.77) in the final 2F. He's only 2 lengths faster than Hansen (16.03).
(These differences are probably going to get even bigger when they run over 10F).

[cj]

For example, Bodemeister (16.2) ... He's only 2 lengths faster than Hansen (16.03).
(These differences are probably going to get even bigger when they run over 10F).

Is that Hansen on poly? If so, since you adjust your acceptable speed for surface, wouldn't that penalize Hansen a bit if it is from a poly race, i.e. Bodemeister isn't only two lengths faster?

[CincyHorseplayer]

The Sunland Derby was a quickly run race but the track also favored closers.It's hard to determine what those horses are going to do.Isn't He Clever didn't fire in the Arkansas Derby.I don't know what to think.The Derby itself usually does favor offpace horses to a greater degree.

[gm10]

Is that Hansen on poly? If so, since you adjust your acceptable speed for surface, wouldn't that penalize Hansen a bit if it is from a poly race, i.e. Bodemeister isn't only two lengths faster?

I need to check but I believe it was for his race at Aqueduct ... he's a tough horse.

[cj]

I need to check but I believe it was for his race at Aqueduct ... he's a tough horse.
If so that race was only a mile and a sixteenth. His first try at 9f was Saturday.

[gm10]

If so that race was only a mile and a sixteenth. His first try at 9f was Saturday.

You are right. It looks like 15.8 is more appropriate. The 16.03 was from the BC.



16.33 (Bluegrass)
15.85 (Gotham)
15.26 (Holy Bull)
16.03 (BC Juv)

[cj]

You are right. It looks like 15.8 is more appropriate. The 16.03 was from the BC.



16.33 (Bluegrass)
15.85 (Gotham)
15.26 (Holy Bull)
16.03 (BC Juv)
Hansen is a neat horse, I just don't see any way he is going to win the Derby.

[lamboguy]

Hansen is a neat horse, I just don't see any way he is going to win the Derby.if he draws good he could present a major pace pressure problem for other horses that like to run from the front.

[Striker]

On #1, if you get Mazur's guide, the rule is a good last race, top 3, win not necessary.

On #2, to say never on dirt, how many horses have qualified for that angle? I can understand if it is some reference to poly tracks, either way sample size would prevent any type of definite answer I would believe.
Just going back to 1990 with winners of the KD, the only horse that qualifies for factor #2 is Animal Kingdom. For factor #1 Barbaro, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, and Fusaichi Pegasus are the only horses that won their last prep race before the derby as the favorite. Since 1990, Street Sense is the only other horse besides AK that had a race on a surface other than dirt in his last prep race before the KD, and won the KD.

[Striker]

if he draws good he could present a major pace pressure problem for other horses that like to run from the front.
Like Bodemeister

[horses4courses]

Site moderator might want to close this thread, and another can be started with a similar title.
It's definitely creating good discussion.

I got my answer, with over 70% polling as I thought.
To me, a horse winning it's final prep race as a favorite is irrelevant.
What does it matter if he wins at 20-1 against the strongest prep field assembled, or at 4-5 against a bunch of donks?
Truth is, it doesn't.

[lamboguy]

Like Bodemeisteri would think that would be his major problem.

i like the horses coming out of the wood memorial this year, that would probably be my direction in this event. both GEMOLOGIST and ALPHA have big time ability, i have no clue who is going to be better in kentucky