Toyota Bluegrass

[redshift1]

1 1/8 Miles G1 STAKES | Purse: $750,000


1 Heavy Breathing

2 Gung Ho

3 Prospective

4 Hansen

5 Russian Greek

6 Dullahan

7 Politicallycorrect

8 Midnight Crooner

9 Holy Candy

10 Howe Great

11 Ever So Lucky

12 Hero of Order

13 Scatman


Looking to upset Hansen who may be odds-on, just not sure who.

.

[GaryG]

Take a good look at Dullahan....there is plenty of speed to set the table for him.

[Not4Love]

Brilliant Speed, Stately Victor, General Quarters, Monba, Dominican. WoW.
That's not impressive.

[ArlJim78]

Brilliant Speed, Stately Victor, General Quarters, Monba, Dominican. WoW.
That's not impressive.
so you are more impressed with Sinister Minister, Bandini, and The Cliffs Edge?

[tribecaagent]

Dullahan has been my KY Derby horse so I'm hoping for a forward move.

Watching intently but not betting on this race.
Hopefully, he runs well. We'll see.

[PhantomOnTour]

Dullahan has been my KY Derby horse so I'm hoping for a forward move.

Watching intently but not betting on this race.
Hopefully, he runs well. We'll see.
I remember you were impressed with his move in the BC Juvenile.
His return race wasn't bad; should move forward.

Prospective is a colt i am interested in.
Didn't handle the CD dirt back in the Br Cup, but i'm hoping he earns another shot at CD by running well in the Blue Grass.

[rastajenk]

Howe Great has taken a different kind of path up to now; I'm curious to see how he does. If anything the last ten years or so has shown us, there are many ways to get a horse ready to be a Derby winner.

[peeptoad]

Probably skip betting this one and just sit back and watch... Hansen figures to get pressed (or to press others) all the way around. I'm thinking the Pletcher horse on the rail may go early to avoid getting squeezed, and he's got some early foot anyway.
Might set up nicely for Dullahan, Prospective, and possibly Holy Candy.

[PhantomOnTour]

I don't delve as deeply into pedigrees as some on this board do, but doesn't Heavy Breathing have bloodlines of gold?

[Valuist]

Brilliant Speed, Stately Victor, General Quarters, Monba, Dominican. WoW.
That's not impressive.

Brilliant Speed and General Quarters were solid. GQ won the Early Times and has raced well on real dirt. BS was 3rd in the BC Turf last year. And Street Sense was in the 2007 running, losing to Dominican in one of the slowest paced Grade 1s ever that wasn't run on soft turf.

But the fact that its still a Grade 1 shows that the graded stakes committee continues to sleep on the job.

[Ocala Mike]

Can EVER SO LUCKY stop underachieving here? Love his connections, but he needs to step up. Did I read somewhere that he's not going to stretch out beyond today's distance no matter what?


Ocala Mike

[Valuist]

Can EVER SO LUCKY stop underachieving here? Love his connections, but he needs to step up. Did I read somewhere that he's not going to stretch out beyond today's distance no matter what?


Ocala Mike

If that's true and the connections were really concerned about distance limitations, why send him 1 1/8 miles over a surface notorious for killing speed going two turns? Realistically, he's really only underachieved in his last race. Yes he was favored in that CD race but the horse that beat him is clearly superior to him. Bettors got that one wrong.

[Robert Fischer]

Hansen is a deserving favorite.

Deep field, lots of pace. Should be a nice race.

[tribecaagent]

I remember you were impressed with his move in the BC Juvenile.
His return race wasn't bad; should move forward.

Prospective is a colt i am interested in.
Didn't handle the CD dirt back in the Br Cup, but i'm hoping he earns another shot at CD by running well in the Blue Grass.

This is true PoT. I remember you being part of that thread as well.

The way I see it, Dullahan has no excuse in the Blue Grass. There's so many factors that favor him on Saturday, its not even funny.
If he doesn't run in the top three Saturday, he has no business in the KY Derby.

[David-LV]

Hansen is a deserving favorite.

Deep field, lots of pace. Should be a nice race.

Don't forget those big bombs underneath.

This race sets up for it to happen.

________
David-LV

[Leparoux]

This is a very good edition of the Bluegrass. I'm not sure all the negativity surrounding this race, I get the poly has changed things, but year in and year out runners in the Bluegrass go on to do well in their 3yo campaign.

IF, big if, Hansen can sit just off like he did in the Gotham and get first run at the leaders then this race should be his. If not, I like Dullahan or Prospective to pick up the pieces. Looking forward to seeing this one in person!

[redshift1]

Just on numbers alone excluding post position and pace scenarios here's my Bluegrass rankings.

Hansen...........444
Hero Of Order..433
Dullahan.........428
Prospective......427
Scatman..........409
Ever So Lucky...403
Howe Great......400

Still not sold on Hansen and guessing Hero of Order will not repeat his last, so here's what I'm left with.

Dullahan
Prospective
Scatman
Ever So Lucky

I believe the morning line is off with Dullahan. and Prospective being bet down from 6-1 and 10-1 respectively.

Scatman and Ever So Lucky obviously will need some help.

.

[Racey]

I think Scatman gets hurt by that post...sort of like Dullahan , Hansen , Holy Candy, Midnight Crooner as shots..

[Blenheim]

Can't see how they beat Hansen. Prospective may need some earnings to stay safe and no doubt Casse would like to make it to the Big Dance. Both of these horses are the class of the field and both of these horses show a propensity for the surface. Castellano gets off the Plether horse and goes with the Motion horse, may be a signal Howe Great is ready to fire.

Alpha, Prospective, Howe Great

:4: :3: :10:



Best of racing luck.

Lookin' forward to the Bluegrass!

[Valuist]

If Hansen starts getting leg weary, he will be out of the trifecta. This isn't their main objective anyways. I expect him to go off closer to 2-1, rather than the 6-5 morning line.

[ten2oneormore]

Castellano gets off the Plether horse and goes with the Motion horse



I was thinking maybe Lanerie got the mount on Heavy Breathing on the off chance he wins.J Castellano already has a mount on Gemologist and Lanerie is a really good rider at Churchill.Just a theory but it would make sense for Pletcher to want the jock who is going to be up if he makes the derby field to have gotten a little familiar with the horse.

[Zydeco]

This is true PoT. I remember you being part of that thread as well.

The way I see it, Dullahan has no excuse in the Blue Grass. There's so many factors that favor him on Saturday, its not even funny.
If he doesn't run in the top three Saturday, he has no business in the KY Derby.

Does Dullahan get in the derby finishing out of the top three? Does he have enough graded stakes earnings to get in? USA Today article brought him on my radar today....will watch and wait on Dullahan.

[Bennie]

dullahan has $405,000 already and is #13 on the list.

[Zydeco]

dullahan has $405,000 already and is #13 on the list.


Thank you.

[MickJ26]

I'm curious about Midnight Crooner. Why does Baffert bring this guy, off of a recent maiden score, at Golden Gate, halfway across the country to run in the Blue Grass when he's not even Triple Crown nominated? Why not just run in a N1X in California? Seems a little bizarre to me.

[Some_One]

Looks like a pass here, using my modified NP, lots of speed early (had 6 early), :4: :10: survive. On the late, :6: :3: get in. I think either Hansen wins for fun or something wakes up at boxcar odds to win.

[peeptoad]

ex box: :1: :3: :6:

[duncan04]

:4: :6: ex box for me

Good luck!!

[turninforhome10]

I'm curious about Midnight Crooner. Why does Baffert bring this guy, off of a recent maiden score, at Golden Gate, halfway across the country to run in the Blue Grass when he's not even Triple Crown nominated? Why not just run in a N1X in California? Seems a little bizarre to me.
If his horse can win why not? Remeber Sinister Minster. Had no intention of going to the Derby.
:10: :6: :8: . Somebody is gonna get stupid in front and force a wicked opening. Track has been showing kindness to the late types. Hansen is up against it with Scatman and Ever so Lucky and would imagine has a target on his back.

[Robert Fischer]

this is a handicapping feast.

still working on it

[Striker]

Prospective may need some earnings to stay safe
He looks pretty safe to me at $365k while sitting at 16 on the earnings list and Hero of Order at 8th will not be in. 5 horses would have to pass him that are behind him in earnings. It could happen I guess, but it is a longshot. As long as he stays healthy, I would say he is already in the gate for the KD.

[redshift1]

this is a handicapping feast.

still working on it

Spent about 10-12 hours on the card, IMO the card is difficult to say the least.

[nijinski]

Can EVER SO LUCKY stop underachieving here? Love his connections, but he needs to step up. Did I read somewhere that he's not going to stretch out beyond today's distance no matter what?


Ocala Mike

He ripped some meat off his heel a few weeks back. Steve Norman set him up with an Alum. Z Bar . Norman thinks he should can run with the shoe , as he trained extremely well wearing it. We'll see what the trainer decides.

[sam i am]

The pace makes this race very interesting...I like the 9 anywhere near that ML.
I will use with few one being the 13.
SIA

[ArlJim78]

yeah this is an interesting race. I think Hansen starts to look more ordinary beginning today. I can see any number as potential upsetters, the two that I will back will be Heavy Breathing and Progressive

[rastajenk]

Hansen... This isn't their main objective anyways.
What makes you think that? Anyone can claim that the Ky Derby is the main objective, but I'm pretty sure the good Doctor very much wants to win Keeneland's premier race.

[Valuist]

What makes you think that? Anyone can claim that the Ky Derby is the main objective, but I'm pretty sure the good Doctor very much wants to win Keeneland's premier race.

The fact that they are running on synthetic and not real dirt. We know he handles TP's Poly against overmatched opposition. Whole different story today.

[rastajenk]

Well, if you think he's just out for an afternoon workout, I respectfully disagree. :cool:

[Valupix]

I fully expect Hansen to win this, but I’m going to stab anyway at what will likely be playable value.



Prospective: seemed at his best on synthetics, responded well to the addition of blinkers, has displayed versatile running that should fit this pace very well styles and he’s a gritty finisher.

Midnight Crooner: the effort on synthetics to break his maiden was so much better than his other efforts that I think you can expect just about anything from this fella today. He could run incredibly huge or he could just as easily finish on the tail end of this field.

Value Lines;

6/1 - Hansen (#4)
10/1 - Prospective (#3)
17/1 - Dullahan (#6)
18/1 - Midnight Crooner (#8)
19/1 - Scatman (#13)

30/1 - Hero of Order (#12)
38/1 - Howe Great (#10)
40/1 - Heavy Breathing (#1)
45/1 - Ever So Lucky (#11)
50/1 - Gung Ho (#2)
50/1 - Holy Candy (#9)

Russian Greek (#5) and Politicallycorrect (#7) are too risky for me.

[Robert Fischer]

:cool:Bobby Fischer's winning moves

contenders:
:4: hansen - the champ is here. overcame trouble vs weak gotham, huge breeders cup win
:6:dullahan - looks the part, couldn't put away Howe Great after looming large.
:7: politicallycorrect - monster win in last against the grain collapsing pace. very talented.
:8:midnight crooner - can run on at a good cruising speed. improving longshot.seemingly weakest of the contenders.
:9:holy candy - needs a good pace set-up,must not settle too close, welcomes the distance.
:10:howe great - strong with high cruising speed,today faces toughest lifetime trip and company.

near misses
:1:heavy breathing- upgrade his spiral, but figures to get swallowed up again with these.
:12:hero of order- wide into 1st turn, or used-up to clear.
:5:russian greek- may lay off the pace, and if gets dream set-up can boost bottom tris and supers(50-1). beats stablemate today.


winning moves?
:6::9: :) lol keying dullahan and holy candy together here. If the set-up and the track surface is at all fair, one of these two should factor late.

[Ocala Mike]

45/1 on the :11: ? Who makes these lines? The horse's connections alone make him no worse than 10/1 IMHO. Guess that's why there's horse racing.

Oh, I get it now; sorry. Those prices are obviously the prices at which you would bet for "value." Very difficult to achieve any of those.

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

[mostpost]

I'll stick with Hansen until he shows me he can't,
1. Get the distance. So far he is three and O at a mile and a sixteenth and in two of those he showed no signs he couldn't get another sixteenth.
2. Continue to rate. He did a good job of it in the Gotham and I see no reason he won't continue to do so.
3. Handle the Keeneland Poly. He certainly handled the poly at Turfway and I am willing to take the chance he will do the same at Keeneland.

So:
$10 Exacta Hansen over Holy Candy
$2 saver exacta Holy Candy over Hansen

$1 Exacta part wheel 4-9 over 4-6-9-10

[Speed Figure]

The way I see it!

[Grits]

Win bet :1: Two races at the distance, one was on poly for Pletcher.

Win bet :10: Beat Dullahan at the distance last out for Motion.

AB bet :7: Working over the Keeneland poly a month for Wesley Ward, ran well fresh last out. Price doesn't concern me, its Wesley Ward bringing him back.

A box using: :1::4::6::7::10:

Good luck, guys.

[rastajenk]

Inspired by Dr Hansen's sense of romance, I'll put Heavy Breathing and Ever So Lucky on top of Howe Great, Holy Candy, and Gung Ho:
:1: :11: / :1: :2: :9: :10: :11: / :1: :2: :9: :10: :11: .

I'm afraid Hansen himself doesn't add much to the mix. :p

[Shelby]

Jennie Rees ‏ @CJ_Jennie (https://twitter.com/#%21/CJ_Jennie) Dr Hansen (TV in tow) was up in stewards office. Apparently he did it: dyed Hansen's tale blue w/o their OK. #hansen (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23hansen) #keeneland (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23keeneland) #kyderby (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23kyderby)







Jennie Rees ‏ @CJ_Jennie (https://twitter.com/#%21/CJ_Jennie)

Jody Demling heard Dr Hansen telling someone 'They're not going to scratch him but they're not happy'


(https://twitter.com/#)

[FenceBored]

Jennie Rees ‏ @CJ_Jennie (https://twitter.com/#%21/CJ_Jennie) Dr Hansen (TV in tow) was up in stewards office. Apparently he did it: dyed Hansen's tale blue w/o their OK. #hansen (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23hansen) #keeneland (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23keeneland) #kyderby (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23kyderby)







Jennie Rees ‏ @CJ_Jennie (https://twitter.com/#%21/CJ_Jennie)

Jody Demling heard Dr Hansen telling someone 'They're not going to scratch him but they're not happy'




:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

It's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission.

Of course, this means the stewards will have the horse under lock and key at CD to prevent it from happening again.

[Shelby]

I can't believe he did it :faint: He's braver than I would be.

[Shelby]

Marty McGee ‏ @DRFMcGee (https://twitter.com/#%21/DRFMcGee) Ky chief stew B.Borden re Hansen: "He can run . . . we'll visit this issue next week. Ky. rules say not to alter appearance of horse." #Kee (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23Kee)

[GaryG]

:6: and :9: Exacta box and both WP

[Shelby]

Jennie Rees ‏ @CJ_Jennie (https://twitter.com/#%21/CJ_Jennie) Bottom half of Hansen's tail is UK blue. Looks kind of cool, actually. #BBN (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23BBN) #UK (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23UK) #Kentucky (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23Kentucky) #Hansen (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23Hansen) #Bluegrass (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23Bluegrass) #keeneland (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23keeneland)




Jennie Rees ‏ @CJ_Jennie (https://twitter.com/#%21/CJ_Jennie) Keeneland stewards had security go to Maker's barn and take container with blue dye used on Hansen. #BBN (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23BBN) #Hansen (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23Hansen) #bluetail (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23bluetail) #keeneland (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23keeneland)

[PhantomOnTour]

I honestly don't know what you folks see in Holy Candy.
I am not using him at all going from a MSW to a Gr1.
Sure, he closed very well in his last race but that was to be expected off such slow splits.

Ain't this what makes it a horse race though?...a difference of opinion.

I like Heavy Breathing to secure a beauty trip stalking the pace from the rail. Hopefully Lanerie moves at the right time and he has improved enough to run with this kind.
Dullahan? Seems a lil too good to be true in this spot with all the pace signed on, and he strikes me as a one paced plodder/grinder that does not have a turn of foot. He just keeps coming slowly...always too late.

As you know, i like Prospective also.
Let's go with:

EX
:1: :3: w :1: :3: :4: :6: :8: :10:

WIN BET
:1:

Good luck y'all

[FenceBored]

Marty McGee ‏ @DRFMcGee (https://twitter.com/#%21/DRFMcGee) Ky chief stew B.Borden re Hansen: "He can run . . . we'll visit this issue next week. Ky. rules say not to alter appearance of horse." #Kee (https://twitter.com/#%21/search/%23Kee)


Mane and tail color are not even on the registration papers, so how can they argue that changing them makes identification more difficult? Which would seem to be the purpose of the no altering appearance rule.

[Tom]

How many blue-tailed horses are there?
Should be NO problem identifying him! :lol:
lN75xqpqCGE

[FenceBored]

I don't always make picks, but when I do I pick :3:.

[Shelby]

Well, they made them dye Hansen's tail back to original color.

Before they made the change back:

https://p.twimg.com/AqeNw87CIAAEgNi.jpg

[Shelby]

J.J. Hysell ‏ @trifectabox (https://twitter.com/#%21/trifectabox) RT @TCInsider (https://twitter.com/#%21/TCInsider) Mike Maker just freaked out on Dr. Hansen in the paddock

[PhantomOnTour]

Well, i said i like the :1: Heavy Breathing, but Pletcher horses DO NOT go off at 33-1 in GrStks and win them.
Not that i can recall at least.
This has me worried because absolutely no one is betting this horse. A Pletch runner in a GrStks gets bet just because it's a Pletch runner.
This guy is ice cold on the tote.

I will scale my bet back a bit and focus more on Prospective.
:confused:

[mostpost]

I'll stick with Hansen until he shows me he can't,
1. Get the distance. So far he is three and O at a mile and a sixteenth and in two of those he showed no signs he couldn't get another sixteenth.
2. Continue to rate. He did a good job of it in the Gotham and I see no reason he won't continue to do so.
3. Handle the Keeneland Poly. He certainly handled the poly at Turfway and I am willing to take the chance he will do the same at Keeneland.

So:
$10 Exacta Hansen over Holy Candy
$2 saver exacta Holy Candy over Hansen

$1 Exacta part wheel 4-9 over 4-6-9-10
Added $5 box 4-10

[PhantomOnTour]

Regroup, regroup...
betting very little here but going for the fences

$1ex: 3-11 w 1-3-4-6-11
$4win: 1-3

[Tom]

Nice stretch drive by the winner.

[Some_One]

And the flaw is revealed, you can't go that fast and expect to last over 10f

[ArlJim78]

the winner pulled up very fast,

[Valuist]

the winner pulled up very fast,

They should point Dullahan to the VA Derby & Secretariat.

[PhantomOnTour]

Those who liked Dullahan and thought this was a ready made win will say 3-1 was a gift (and it was).
Those who tried to beat Dullahan (like me) will wonder WTF is wrong with them.

[KirisClown]

FinNLMHh_f8

[Grits]

POT, yes, Pletcher's horse looked horrible, as did Ward's 7. I added a place bet on the 2, he looked good, was hoping he'd hold on. :rolleyes: Earlier races aren't making up for this one.

[Sysonby]

I'm not sure what to think about what Hansen did. A few years ago, Street Sense got a lot out of this race running closer to the front than he normally did. The goal wasn't to win, just to get a really good work on the polytrack, so not sure if Hansen's connections were thinking the same thing.

I don't want to take anything away from Dullahan though, that was a very nice run.

[rastajenk]

Jim Tafel is not from Kentucky. Kendall Hansen is.

[Marshall Bennett]

Hard to measure since they went to polycrap. Hanson here didn't look like a mile and a quarter contender.The winner of the Arkansas derby looked much more impressive than anything here.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought the race was speed favoring.
Hansen still ran well in defeat, but did little to separate himself from the 2 Gung Ho. Gung Ho and Hansen traveling 1-2 with no one passing them (especially Gung Ho) late would indicate the race set-up kind to speed. As would the inability of the 1,7,12,13,or 10 to successfully establish a pace presence.

Dullahan was pretty much the only effective closer and ran very big against the grain or at the very least a race where the speed had every right to hold.

[letswastemoney]

Why did Dullahan just stop after the race and not gallop around the turn? Is he okay?

[Tex9Down]

I think Kent was ready for a beer and couldn't wait to get in the winners circle. Nothing wrong with that. I think (hope) Dullihan is just fine and will run great in the Derby.

[nijinski]

Why did Dullahan just stop after the race and not gallop around the turn? Is he okay?
I thought he was pulled up abruptly too . Someone mentioned he did that in a prior race . Now I have to wonder if it's the trainer's wishes .

[JustRalph]

That Hansen is a tough cookie...... with those splits on Poly? Come on?

Can anybody fill me in on what kind of comparison that half mile time is for this meet?

[depalma113]

Why did Dullahan just stop after the race and not gallop around the turn? Is he okay?

The horse was running straight into the turn after the race. Had he not been pulled up abruptly he would have run through the oustide rail.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Does anybody really punish Hansen for getting a jog on this poly BS?He might not be a win bet for me on Derby day but this horse is far from toast.

[Striker]

After the race today Ramon was asked who he will ride in the derby, Alpha or Hansen, and he said he didn't know.

[ArlJim78]

The horse was running straight into the turn after the race. Had he not been pulled up abruptly he would have run through the oustide rail.
I must have missed the part when he was running into the rail.
i saw a horse that wanted to stop running very soon after the wire, he looked like he was gasping. I don't know what the issue was but he's an auto-toss for me in the derby based on that alone.

[Robert Fischer]

Tough to say.

I thought Desormeaux may have pulled him up abruptly and stood up, especially pulling with his right reins.
Dullahan looked to me like he he didn't like the abrupt pull-up for a couple of jumps and then was fine.

Will just have to watch the previous races for the gallop outs, and keep eyes and ears open.

[Midnight Cruiser]

Excuse in advance if its allready been posted, but what did Dullahan Beyer in the Bluegrass?

[setup]

I don't see anything. Watching the headon, the horse is smoothly in stride before, thru, and after the wire.

[depalma113]

I don't see anything. Watching the headon, the horse is smoothly in stride before, thru, and after the wire.


Find the CNBC coverage of the race. It's plain as day. They cut to Hansen's owner and than back to Dullahan. The horse is heading straight for the outter rail and Kent grabs a hold of him abruptly.

[menifee]

Excuse in advance if its allready been posted, but what did Dullahan Beyer in the Bluegrass?

98

[Valupix]

45/1 on the :11: ? Who makes these lines? The horse's connections alone make him no worse than 10/1 IMHO. Guess that's why there's horse racing.

Oh, I get it now; sorry. Those prices are obviously the prices at which you would bet for "value." Very difficult to achieve any of those.

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:It's not difficult at all, sometimes half the field or more exceed fair value.

[Striker]

I must have missed the part when he was running into the rail.
i saw a horse that wanted to stop running very soon after the wire, he looked like he was gasping. I don't know what the issue was but he's an auto-toss for me in the derby based on that alone.
Romans was interviewed on HRTV tonight and they asked him about this. He said Kent told him he had so much horse that if he didn't pull him up then, that he would never have been able to pull him up.

[cj]

I thought the race was speed favoring.
Hansen still ran well in defeat, but did little to separate himself from the 2 Gung Ho. Gung Ho and Hansen traveling 1-2 with no one passing them (especially Gung Ho) late would indicate the race set-up kind to speed. As would the inability of the 1,7,12,13,or 10 to successfully establish a pace presence.

Dullahan was pretty much the only effective closer and ran very big against the grain or at the very least a race where the speed had every right to hold.

Neither the fractions or the results of prior races would indicate that speed was any particular advantage in the Blue Grass. I think the 2-3 runners just happened to run very well.

I also think saying they ran 1-2 isn't a true picture since Gung Ho passed a couple horses between the 1/4 and 1/2 and another before the 3/4.

[rastajenk]

Romans was interviewed on HRTV tonight and they asked him about this. He said Kent told him he had so much horse that if he didn't pull him up then, that he would never have been able to pull him up.Sounds like he's lobbying Battaglia to be the Derby fave.

[sam i am]

fun fact
at keenland Poly (when they didn't groom the track before the race..)

How many route winners where on the lead going the half (4F) in less then 47.4 Answer 4 out of 50
0 for 14 @9F

how about under 47.0
1 out of 20


there was no way that he was going to win with those splits.

this info was found at the keenland website.

[Robert Fischer]

Neither the fractions or the results of prior races would indicate that speed was any particular advantage in the Blue Grass. I think the 2-3 runners just happened to run very well.

I also think saying they ran 1-2 isn't a true picture since Gung Ho passed a couple horses between the 1/4 and 1/2 and another before the 3/4.


After a post-race look, I have to agree with you.

If the ground-loss for both Gung Ho(5995 ft)(good trip), and Holy Candy(6047 ft), as well as the fact that Dullahan is simply faster than other late running contender Holy Candy is blended in somewhat, the race looks very fair.

I'm not sure how much weight to put into the fractions but they look honest-fast.

[Striker]

Sounds like he's lobbying Battaglia to be the Derby fave.
I believe in the same interview they asked Romans where he thought Dullahan would be in the wagering, and he said he expected to be in the top 3.

[mostpost]

I have to admit some disappointment that Hansen did not win the Blue Grass Stakes. (Especially since I lost money on the race.) But looking at the race more closely, I think he did a remarkable job.
First, he set a very fast pace. His 46.64 half was 2.2 seconds faster than the average for the half in all other keeneland races at a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth. His six furlong time was 2.79seconds faster. It should also be noted that Hansen's time in the Blue Grass (1:48.36 according to Trakus) was surpassed by only two winners of one and one eighth mile derby preps-Dullahan and I Want Another in the Santa Anita Derby.

Of course there are still questions about Hansen. He rated nicely in the Gotham. In the Blue Grass he was on the lead, but Dominguez seemed to think he was relaxed. There is also the question of did the Blue Grass build stamina for Hansen or did it take too much out of him.

Then there are the questions about the other contenders that ran last Saturday. Bodemeister has had only four starts and has won only two of those. He did not race as a two year old and we all know when the last horse who did not race as a two year old won the Kentucky Derby. 1882. or therabouts.

Then there is Dullahan. Anyone else notice that Dullahan is two for two on synthetics-specifically Keeneland-but o fer three on dirt. I wish I had noticed that before the Blue Grass. :mad: As I recall the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt.

[Striker]

Then there is Dullahan. Anyone else notice that Dullahan is two for two on synthetics-specifically Keeneland-but o fer three on dirt. I wish I had noticed that before the Blue Grass. :mad: As I recall the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt.
He also had a pretty good work over the Kee strip coming into the Bluegrass on 4/8 at 5 furlongs where he went 57.40 Handily. He ran 4th in the BC Juvenile at Churchill last year, and only finished behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause, that isn't very disappointing to me.

[Tom]

mostie, aside from 4th in the BC race, CD, of any dirt track, is hospitable to poly horses. I don't have any qualms about poly horses at CD. I'll dig some stats this week.

[Greyfox]

Then there is Dullahan. Anyone else notice that Dullahan is two for two on synthetics-specifically Keeneland-but o fer three on dirt. I wish I had noticed that before the Blue Grass. :mad: As I recall the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt.

The switch from poly to dirt shouldn't be a problem. If anything, it should add stamina.

My concern was that Dullahan appeared quite "spent" veering to the right after the wire and not galloping out at all.
Unfortunately, the simulcast that I saw did not show Hansen's gallop out, if he had one in any form.

[Scofield]

The switch from poly to dirt shouldn't be a problem. If anything, it should add stamina.

My concern was that Dullahan appeared quite "spent" veering to the right after the wire and not galloping out at all.
Unfortunately, the simulcast that I saw did not show Hansen's gallop out, if he had one in any form.

Greyfox,
If your a Dullahan fan i wouldnt worry too much about his gallop out read below,



Per Romans

Romans said the fact Dullahan appeared to fight with jockey Kent Desormeaux as he was being pulled up further proved to him how much the colt still had in reserve.
“He (Dullahan) was pulling on Kent so hard he said he was afraid if he didn’t get pulled up quick he wasn’t going to get him pulled up,” Romans said. “I just don’t see there being any distance limitations on this horse.”

[Greyfox]

Greyfox,
If your a Dullahan fan i wouldnt worry too much about his gallop out read below,



Per Romans

Romans said the fact Dullahan appeared to fight with jockey Kent Desormeaux as he was being pulled up further proved to him how much the colt still had in reserve.
“He (Dullahan) was pulling on Kent so hard he said he was afraid if he didn’t get pulled up quick he wasn’t going to get him pulled up,” Romans said. “I just don’t see there being any distance limitations on this horse.”

Romans knows more about horses habits than I ever will.
That's good to hear. But he was sure pulled up fast after the race.

[Speed Figure]

He may not have distance limitations, but what about surface limitations? he's never done anything on dirt before and his 2 wins were at Keeneland.

[PhantomOnTour]

Dullahan did run 4th in the BrCup Juvy...i wouldn't say that's nothing.

Hansen and Union Rags beat him by 6 lengths that day at CD.
I wonder how he will fare in the rematch at 10f six months later.

I don't know if i will bet Dullahan or not, but i am not dismissing him by any means.
Not yet.

[setup]

I think Dullahan is a real interesting horse. He's a legitimate off the pace runner. The type that doesn't need a complete pace collapse to win. He had no shot in the BC, given the race dynamics but he ran very well. And though he got an optimal setup in the Bluegrass, he finished in very nice stride. With the disappointing effort by Union Rags in the FD, and the extra distance, Dullahan might be a better play.

[Striker]

[font=courier]He may not have distance limitations, but what about surface limitations? he's never done anything on dirt before and his 2 wins were at Keeneland.
You could have said the same about Paddy O Prado before the 2011 KD and he got 3rd. Dullahan is a little more accomplished than Paddy was going into the derby and Romans has put Dullahan on a very similar path leading up to the derby as he did with Paddy 2 years ago.

[Robert Fischer]

for some reason the trip/ride and result Dullahan had in the Bluegrass reminded me a lot of Summer Bird's win in the Belmont.

same jockey similar timing

not putting any stock into it, just one of those crazy comparisons when a race kind of reminds you of another race.

[depalma113]

You could have said the same about Paddy O Prado before the 2011 KD and he got 3rd. Dullahan is a little more accomplished than Paddy was going into the derby and Romans has put Dullahan on a very similar path leading up to the derby as he did with Paddy 2 years ago.


Paddy O Prado posted a :58 1/5 bullet in the slop at churchill in his last workout before the Derby. He like Animal kingdom last year proved in the workout that the surface was not going to be a problem.

[Striker]

Paddy O Prado posted a :58 1/5 bullet in the slop at churchill in his last workout before the Derby. He like Animal kingdom last year proved in the workout that the surface was not going to be a problem.
Agree. Hasn't Dullahan already proved that the Churchill surface won't be a problem? BC juvenile race which showed he could handle the dirt kickback, and he has trained over it numerous times. His works at Gulfstream aren't bad either.