Arrogance May Be Punished Come Derby Day

[Jasonm921]

Alot of connections must be scrambling now to try to figure out how they are going to get in the gate on Derby Day. 300,000 is needed to get in and some thought they could steal a high priced grade III and sit back.....not this year.

[DaylightDies]

Who do you figure is sweating about this right now?

I think Mark Valeski and El Padrino might be tight getting in... but also think there are some higher than them that won't be in the gate...

[OTM Al]

You do realise there is still a month to go and there is sure to be defections, right?

[Jasonm921]

Ofcourse....but do you think any of these guys thought 300g was going to be the minimum. Would you feel good right about now if you were Team Valor? You may be right but they aren't in control of their own destiny as of right now.

[Cholly]

You do realise there is still a month to go and there is sure to be defections, right?

You're right there are going to be defections, but there are also going to be a slew of horses leapfrog upward in the next two weeks. If you’re a fan of El Padrino, the decision to race him Florida instead of shipping back to the Fairgrounds looks pretty suspect.

This business of allocating Kentucky Derby slots by earnings seems to present more ridiculous scenarios each year. As racing czar next year, here’s the way it’s going to be: Six accredited Derby preps: the derbies titled Santa Anita, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida plus the Wood Memorial and Bluegrass Stakes. Win, place, or show in one of those and they’re in.

That accounts for eighteen of the twenty; I’ll pick two deserving horses to complete the field. No Delta Jack-rabbits, no winners of the Sun-baked Land Derby.

[MadWorld]

You're right there are going to be defections, but there are also going to be a slew of horses leapfrog upward in the next two weeks. If you’re a fan of El Padrino, the decision to race him Florida instead of shipping back to the Fairgrounds looks pretty suspect.

This business of allocating Kentucky Derby slots by earnings seems to present more ridiculous scenarios each year. As racing czar next year, here’s the way it’s going to be: Six accredited Derby preps: the derbies titled Santa Anita, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida plus the Wood Memorial and Bluegrass Stakes. Win, place, or show in one of those and they’re in.

That accounts for eighteen of the twenty; I’ll pick two deserving horses to complete the field. No Delta Jack-rabbits, no winners of the Sun-baked Land Derby.

Best way to rank horses for Kentucky Derby entries IMO is to use the Graded earnings but weight it. Something like this:

G1 earnings on dirt at 3- multiply by 3
G2 earnings on dirt at 3- multiply by 2
G3 earnings on dirt at 3- no multiplier
Graded Earnings at 2 - divide by 2
Turf Graded Earnings - divide by 2
Sprint Graded Earnings - divide by 2
Graded earnings against fillies - divide by 2

[Tom]

How about points?

Gr1, routes only, 3 year olds WPS, 5,3,1
Gr2 routes only, 3 year olds WP, 3,1

No 2 year old races other than the BC juvy and Filly Juvy, WP, 2,1

Then limit the Derby to 14 horses.

[depalma113]

You're right there are going to be defections, but there are also going to be a slew of horses leapfrog upward in the next two weeks. If you’re a fan of El Padrino, the decision to race him Florida instead of shipping back to the Fairgrounds looks pretty suspect.

This business of allocating Kentucky Derby slots by earnings seems to present more ridiculous scenarios each year. As racing czar next year, here’s the way it’s going to be: Six accredited Derby preps: the derbies titled Santa Anita, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida plus the Wood Memorial and Bluegrass Stakes. Win, place, or show in one of those and they’re in.

That accounts for eighteen of the twenty; I’ll pick two deserving horses to complete the field. No Delta Jack-rabbits, no winners of the Sun-baked Land Derby.

Just what we need, horses with even fewer starts getting into the Kentucky Derby.

[DaylightDies]

Getting back on topic, I really think there will be little / no defection off the Derby trail this year.

Those in the 20's in Graded earnings will be sweating out the next week or so...

[PhantomOnTour]

Let's have a selection committee instead
:)

[rastajenk]

:D :D

The field's not even close to being set and we're bitchin' about it! Classic.