1 1/8th Mile. Illinois Derby GIII 500k

[Blenheim]

Nice purse - should be a fun race.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm

Pletcher . . .

[cj's dad]

I'm hoping the :15: gets in. Back ups are the :4: & :8:

[Striker]

A great betting race with 14 entries but lack of proven stakes horses. Maybe the winner of the race will actually have been nominated to the KD this year unlike Joe Vann last year.

[Striker]

I'm hoping the :15: gets in. Back ups are the :4: & :8:
#15 already scratched out(didn't ship in) and I believe will run at Oaklawn next weekend.

[cj's dad]

Thanks for the heads up re: :15:

[Striker]

He should run in an undercard stake at Oaklawn on Ark Derby day.

[Valuist]

When I make my own odds, I first place each horse into one of four categories: contender, sleeper, tweener, and N/C (no chance). I've given up trying to make odds for the ILL Derby; I really can't split the contenders from the tweeners, let alone the sleepers. Could have a few 20-1 shots and then make everyone else between 6-1 and 10-1. I guess one can make a case Currency Exchange could be a slight favorite but why take anything under 5-1?

[Valuist]

When I make my own odds, I first place each horse into one of four categories: contender, sleeper, tweener, and N/C (no chance). I've given up trying to make odds for the ILL Derby; I really can't split the contenders from the tweeners, let alone the sleepers. Could have a few 20-1 shots and then make everyone else between 6-1 and 10-1. I guess one can make a case Currency Exchange could be a slight favorite but why take anything under 5-1?

After a bit of work, here's my line. If I'm making book, what are you betting against my prices:

1 Romancing the Gold 10-1
2 Hakama 12-1 m/l is giving him too much credit
3 Ring it Up 12-1
4 Currency Swap 4-1 somebody has to be favored
5 Pretension 7-1 fits but m/l a little too low
6 Skyring 25-1
7 Saturday Launch 15-1
8 Z Rockstar 5-1 10-1 m/l isn't giving him enough credit
9 Fastestwhogetspaid 30-1
10 Frankie is Rock 30-1
11 Our Entourage 9-1 sorry but he won't be near 9-2 ml
12 Morgan's Guerrilla 6-1 I won't play him at 6-1 but I expect him to take $
13 Done Talking 12-1 liked his Remsen; hated his Gotham
14 Slamit 30-1

[sammy the sage]

After a bit of work, here's my line. If I'm making book, what are you betting against my prices:

1 Romancing the Gold 10-1
2 Hakama 12-1 m/l is giving him too much credit
3 Ring it Up 12-1
4 Currency Swap 4-1 somebody has to be favored
5 Pretension 7-1 fits but m/l a little too low
6 Skyring 25-1
7 Saturday Launch 15-1
8 Z Rockstar 5-1 10-1 m/l isn't giving him enough credit
9 Fastestwhogetspaid 30-1
10 Frankie is Rock 30-1
11 Our Entourage 9-1 sorry but he won't be near 9-2 ml
12 Morgan's Guerrilla 6-1 I won't play him at 6-1 but I expect him to take $
13 Done Talking 12-1 liked his Remsen; hated his Gotham
14 Slamit 30-1


#11 will be favored...and probably win...although a bomb is likely as well

[Striker]

#11 will be favored...and probably win...although a bomb is likely as well
I don't think #11 will go off the post time favorite and I will defintely say that if Gemologist wins the Wood or finishes 2nd, then Currency Swap for sure will be the favorite.

I will give :5: Pretension my endorsement for win honors.

[Valuist]

#11 will be favored...and probably win...although a bomb is likely as well

No way he is favored. The 9-2 morning line is a big mistake, IMO. Its strictly a function of Pletcher's previous success in the race, and NOT the horse.

[Blenheim]

Currency Swap:

120 on the EFH; Dual Qualifier; class advantage; pace advantage; jockey advantage; second off a layoff to Gemologist last out; one good work - should be tough to beat.

:4: