Carter Handicap

[andtheyreoff]

A short but very talented bunch of runners in here. Thoughts?

:1: Emcee
:1a: Tahitian Warrior
:2: Jackson Bend
:3: Caleb's Posse
:4: Calibrachoa
:5: Shackleford

[Tom]

Disappointing turn out. 5 Horses?

[andtheyreoff]

Disappointing turn out. 5 Horses?

Perhaps so, but the quality of the 6 running makes it, top to bottom, the strongest field of the year.

In addition, pretty much anyone can win it IMO, so, for a 6 horse race, it's a good handicapping test.

[Dahoss9698]

Perhaps so, but the quality of the 6 running makes it, top to bottom, the strongest field of the year.

In addition, pretty much anyone can win it IMO, so, for a 6 horse race, it's a good handicapping test.

I agree. It's a fascinating race and I have looked at it for awhile now and still have no clue what direction I'm leaning.

[JustRalph]

The entry looks tough.

either one............

[David-LV]

One look at this field and I turned the page. :bang:

________
David-LV

[Dahoss9698]

One look at this field and I turned the page. :bang:

________
David-LV

Just out of curiousity, why?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's the most talent laden dirt sprint we might see until the Breeders Cup. I know it's a small field, but IMO it's a fantastic betting race.

[cj]

It would be nice if this archaic rule of having an entry in a G1 stakes races was changed.

[Valuist]

I think people are overlooking Shackleford. He should sit second off what I believe will be a modest pace. All we heard about from the BC Dirt Mile was Caleb's Posse but Shackleford ran a big race. After 7 furlongs, he actually had the lead by 2.5 lengths thru a fast pace. If you like turnbacks, this one definitely is a contender.

[the little guy]

The people who are dismissing this race because it has five betting interests are only doing themselves a disservice, as they are missing out on a great race. A strong case can be made for five of the runners. Caleb's Posse, the favorite, may be the most talented, and most exciting, horse in the country.

This is an excellent race.

[classhandicapper]

The people who are dismissing this race because it has five betting interests are only doing themselves a disservice, as they are missing out on a great race.

I have to agree.

How much would this race be improved if 3 long shots were added to it so we had 9 horses and 8 betting interests?

There are only 6 horses, but they are the "right" 6 horses and that's what makes it such a great race.

[Blenheim]

Hear, hear . . . should be a good one!

[FantasticDan]

Calibrachoa scratched.

[Tom]

I was just about to say that 5 horses is always disappointing because you will likely get a scratch. Now we have 4 horses. Whoopie!

Good race, yes, but I would rather see a field of 10 good allowance horses.

There are only 6 horses, but they are the "right" 6 horses and that's what makes it such a great race.

6?
Try 5, 4 betting interests.

[Tom]

The entry is 2-1?
Two NW allowance horses at best?

[KirisClown]

rwTrjUoDxFs

[iceknight]

Excerpt: "Jackson Bend improved to 4-for-4 at the seven-furlong distance and "

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/68758/jackson-bend-carves-out-mild-carter-upset#ixzz1rPDKEGTy

And Caleb's Posse's jockey Rajiv made an error in taking him to the inside, that delayed the kick which he has normally. if he had ridden on the outside and let the horse go earlier, Caleb's Posse would have possibly won by a length or so.

[cj]

Excerpt: "Jackson Bend improved to 4-for-4 at the seven-furlong distance and "

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/68758/jackson-bend-carves-out-mild-carter-upset#ixzz1rPDKEGTy

And Caleb's Posse's jockey Rajiv made an error in taking him to the inside, that delayed the kick which he has normally. if he had ridden on the outside and let the horse go earlier, Caleb's Posse would have possibly won by a length or so.

I thought he rode a pretty smart race keeping him up much closer than usual. A closer isn't going to get the best of everything.

[cj]

The entry is 2-1?
Two NW allowance horses at best?

One of them was the 5 million dollar gelding!

[iceknight]

I thought he rode a pretty smart race keeping him up much closer than usual. A closer isn't going to get the best of everything.
I agree that he did run a smarter race as tactics had changed in this case. In shorter fields it does become like a match race so it was a good ride!

[Tom]

One of them was the 5 million dollar gelding!
Emcee?
They better hope he gets better than he has been so far.
Gr3 looks like a realistic goal for him.

[cj]

Emcee?
They better hope he gets better than he has been so far.
Gr3 looks like a realistic goal for him.

No, the other one...the one that was purchased for large sums of money and, rumor has it at least, they didn't know he was a gelding.

I actually think Emcee will turn out pretty good if he can get out of the gate next time.

[Linny]

Emcee was rushed into some lofty company and has not disgraced himself. He spotted Shack about 8 lengths and caught him after only a furlong. OK, hey, it was what, his 5th start?
I don't think Rajiv had a lot of choice. Caleb is better outside but inside was a good part of the track and it's not like he failed to rally.

[Grits]

I started laughing as soon as I saw him today, not to be unkind, but over the rumor. :faint:

[PhantomOnTour]

I feel bad for this guy.
He runs his ass off everytime and seems to thrive on a duel, but he just can't finish the deal.
Sadly, he's got a horse in his distance range that he just can't handle, Caleb's Posse.
I see a repeat scenario in the Met Mile.

Poor Shack...what would you do with him?

[Tom]

Poor Shack...what would you do with him?

Gr3, one turn.

[iceknight]

I feel bad for this guy.
He runs his ass off everytime and seems to thrive on a duel, but he just can't finish the deal.
Sadly, he's got a horse in his distance range that he just can't handle, Caleb's Posse.
I see a repeat scenario in the Met Mile.

Poor Shack...what would you do with him?

I think that better be Romans' main worry- ie what tactics to employ for the Met Mile..

[CincyHorseplayer]

If I trained Caleb's Posse I'd start him in a few 2 turn middle distance races,because I think he still finishes huge and has more race in front of him.IMO he could really take off and it would change the older stakes males picture.If it's not to his liking,nothing shorter than a 1 turn mile and plan around both Belmont meets at the long 1 turn distances.

I thought in his layoff race he was a good bet against because of the break and the short distance.he ran a really good race,and yesterday as someone mentioned it looked like either the rail or speed was it.he's a good 1 run closer but he is a one run closer,at least going less than 8f.That said I think the possibilities with him are huge this year.

[NTamm1215]

If I trained Caleb's Posse I'd start him in a few 2 turn middle distance races,because I think he still finishes huge and has more race in front of him.IMO he could really take off and it would change the older stakes males picture.If it's not to his liking,nothing shorter than a 1 turn mile and plan around both Belmont meets at the long 1 turn distances.

I thought in his layoff race he was a good bet against because of the break and the short distance.he ran a really good race,and yesterday as someone mentioned it looked like either the rail or speed was it.he's a good 1 run closer but he is a one run closer,at least going less than 8f.That said I think the possibilities with him are huge this year.

Amsterdam: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ2SuZ03-Yk

King's Bishop: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmKOKD1fVY

Indiana Derby: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IzHioQfEMU

I think you need to watch these three races again. They illustrate a fundamental handicapping principle that a one-run sprinter is nowhere near as effective going two turns. Caleb's Posse was a Grade I winner at 7fs, defeating the defending 2YO Eclipse Award winner. He has now lost two graded races by a total of a head, the latter of which came with a terribly negative pace setup. Running this horse around two turns would be an absolutely dreadful idea, and the simple notion that he would be better with more ground (9fs) has been proven to be wrong with this particular horse.

Caleb's Posse ran one of the best races of his career yesterday.

[Tom]

CP is not a two turn horse. His trainer has stated the he will focus on one turn miles. He realizes CP is not the same horse going longer. Kudos to him for understanding his horse. That last 2-turn route was a prep race for the BC going shorter.

[the little guy]

Yesterday's race was a great example of how well good horses can run when they are allowed to do what they do best.

[KirisClown]

Yesterday's race was a great example of how well good horses can run when they are allowed to do what they do best.

Well said.. also shows how great racing can be when the top horses are all not with one or two trainers.. The Met this year should be a lot of fun..

[cj]

Just too bad there aren't more good horses.

[precocity]

Emcee has some pretty fast get up will be interesting to see how his career plays out.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I wouldn't nail down CP's potential just because he didn't do x as a 3yo.And I certainly have seen plenty of 1 run closers flatten out to know extra distance isn't always key.That wasn't my point at all.I think as a more mature 4yo able to post big figures he would be a factor in 2 turn races.If not I see what I think is the ideal gameplan for him.Don't pigeonhole me like you are Caleb's Posse;)

[Tom]

I just said what the trainer has said about him.

[PaceAdvantage]

I feel bad for this guy.
He runs his ass off everytime and seems to thrive on a duel, but he just can't finish the deal.I was feeling the same way watching the race...