Jan 1-thoroughbred birthday!!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Any great advice on betting horses who just aged a year? New 3 and 4 year olds, that is!

[Tom]

Two angles I use this time every year are:

1. #yos dropping down in class off of wins or good races are not always negative class drops-they will be entering the lower claiming prices after Jan1 anyway, so the $35,000 3YO race this week will be a $20,000 claimer next week.

2. After Jan 1, 4yo against older in open claimers are sometimes at a disadvantage class-wise.

[David McKenzie]

Look for a three year old that breaks its two year old top in its first three starts as a three year old. Then bet it three to six weeks later.

That's an old sheet angle which is probably the best sheet play in racing.

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally posted by David McKenzie@HSH
Look for a three year old that breaks its two year old top in its first three starts as a three year old.


All three of those starts or just one of them?

[Tom]

Does that angle apply if there is no break in racing?
I always used it after a layoff, or at least a freshening of 60-90 days.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
All three of those starts or just one of them?

Just one of them.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by Tom
Does that angle apply if there is no break in racing?
I always used it after a layoff, or at least a freshening of 60-90 days.

Tom,

The angle has to do with the horse's maturing. As they get older they get stronger and develop more stamina (and hopefully speed and quickness too).

So, the layoff is irrelevant.

A handicapper should prefer horses that are lightly raced as two years olds, as opposed to ones that have been driven into the ground.

Seabiscuit was raced heavily as a two year old. However, he's an exception to the rule. Also, his two year old record was nothing to write home about.

What's nice about this angle is that the horse hasn't done it yet, so you'll often get a tremendous price.

Being an old Sartin methodologist yourself I'm sure you can relate to the following anecdote.

I was at Bridgeport Jai-Alai simulcasting many years ago with someone who had just returned from a Sartin seminar. He had the brand-spanking-new Thoromation loaded in his laptop and he'd learned how to use the program that weekend at the seminar.

The ninth race at AQI was for new three year olds and I pointed out a classic sheet horse (we used the sheets, Sartin, and a myriad of other programs, that way we'd be assured we'd have no idea who to actually bet when it came time to make a wager :>).

The horse didn't show up well on Thoromation. I pointed out that the horse hadn't done it yet, but all signs indicated a giant effort forthcoming today. My friend stubbornly refused to put a dime on the horse (even though he devoutly bet two horses to win). Needless to say the horse romped home like there no tomorrow. He paid something like $28 to win.

Aside: That was the last day they allowed laptops to be plugged into the Jai-Alai electrical outlets. After that day you had to rely on battery power.

[Tom]

I had always thought the layoff or freshening combined with the maturity of the horse. I'll pay more attention to your way.
That was the flaw with Sartin programs-you were out of luck with improving horses. I pretty much stuck to older claimers with T Mation.

[JustMissed]

Should you just bet that improving 3yo automatically or only if you have positive Opt%?

Also, if it's an unproven 3yo, how could it have a positive Opt%?Can you program your computer so it knows the horse just turned 3 and ran it's better fig than it's 2yo top and consequently use this as a factor for calculating the value odds?

After it breaks its 2yo top after turning 3, how does your computer know which 'next' race to lower your value odds so you'll have a betting opportunity using positve Opt%?

How many races as a 2yo does your computer consider 'lightly' raced in order to properly assign the value odds in order to properly calculate the Opt%?


JustMissed
:D

[kenwoodallpromos]

Good advice! I usually say for non-stakes, less than 1 race every 45 days is light.