The Handicapper's Cafe

[thaskalos]

I would like to add a "Question & Answer" thread to this forum...in order to encourage more conversation on handicapping and betting.

It is very difficult to talk about handicapping and betting, when you don't know who (or how informed...or how INTERESTED in getting better informed) your audience is.

I am sure that there are legitimate "experts" at this site, because I have been reading their posts here for years; but I am equally certain that there are novices here as well...who are still trying to find their way in this fascinating but frustrating game.

I have repeatedly stated that a mentor is invaluable in this game of ours...because there are so many questions that need an answer...and, also, so many unscrupulous people around...who provide the WRONG answer, because it is financially beneficial to THEM. Without a "true" mentor...a player could easily flounder along for YEARS...without making any real progress in gaining a thorough understanding of this game.

THIS is what I had in mind when I started this Handicapper's Corner. I wanted to be the mentor that I myself wished I would have had...when I started playing this game, 30 years ago.

Any handicapping or betting question you need answered, you should ask right here...and I will provide as complete and accurate an answer as my 30 years in the game will allow. I will also use the more interesting questions to start new threads...so we can develop these topics further.

I think that this will be better than me just starting topics of discussion on my own...thinking that they will be of interest to you, just because they happen to be of interest to me.

Lest anyone misunderstand me, let me state at the very start that, although I consider myself a very knowledgable player, my knowledge of this game is not, by any means, "encyclopedic"...so I welcome the assistance of all of you who would also like to participate here, and present YOUR point of view on things.

My aim here is to provide a place where the interested player, REGARDLESS of his knowledge and experience in the game, can ask a question about some aspect of it...and get that question answered in a prompt and satisfactory manner.

As I said before...I will select the most engaging questions, in order to start other threads...so we can develop these topics further.

I also reserve the right to ask and answer my OWN questions, whenever I feel a topic may need further development...or when I want to steer the conversation in a certain direction.

A word of caution:

I plan on being a lot more liberal in my use of the moderator privileges that PA has bestowed upon me. This forum is for those with REAL questions...who are in need of real ANSWERS.

I will have no tolerance for those whose real purpose is to stymie this discussion...or to ask disingenuous questions, in order to further some mysterious agenda of their own.

Those questions will be unceremoniously deleted.

As I have already stated, my own schedule gets hectic at times...and, although I plan on spending time every night (especially late) participating in our discussion here...I am not starting this with the intent of it revolving around "thaskalos"...

I implore ALL the posters here to participate in our discussion ...so we can get some lively and useful conversation going. With all the expert players we have here, no reasonable question should be left unanswered.

When the industry shows disinterest in properly educating the players in the art/science of handicapping and betting...what other choice do the players have but to educate their own?

My ultimate mission is...and has been from the very beginning...to preserve Paceadvantage's top spot among horse racing forums and message boards.

With that said...let our discussion begin!

[Capper Al]

My Greek friend in cyberspace, you write so darn well. It's going to be difficult competing against you. Good luck with your effort. Hope to see you at Arlington Park this summer.

[thaskalos]

My Greek friend in cyberspace, you write so darn well. It's going to be difficult competing against you. Good luck with your effort. Hope to see you at Arlington Park this summer.
I really don't see us as "competitors", my friend...

When people work for the same noble cause, then, IMO, they are on the same team...regardless of the address they choose to occupy.

In any event, I wish you luck in your own endeavors as well...

And I promise you one thing:

You will never hear a derogatory word about you -- or your efforts over at the "bright side" -- from Thaskalos.

No matter WHAT you might say about me, and my efforts here...when you address YOUR audience over there...

[CincyHorseplayer]

I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run that damaged badly what had been a year of a 71% ROI for 10 months,I had to break down my each and every move and impose strict betting rules.Doing so I realized that my reality was getting too far removed from my philosophy.My temper was short and my aggression was too readily apparent.I was trying to force it.I had success to the point where I thought it was time to do business and through sheer force of willpower make a run.

I couldn't even talk about this a month ago.It was a learning experience albeit a very painful one.Instructive nevertheless.I broke down things into odds brackets,grading races,was influenced by the Optimal Position Sizing post on here and made that a point of focus to correspond to the race grades.Each day became less about wins and losses but in analyzing what I was thinking at a certain time.The process.Clearing up the going from point A to point B.If you have any advice about just the flow of playing,preparation,just having that innate sense of balance of gameplan and execution,I would be grateful.I have made a pact this year to not learn any new methodology but focus on what's floating around my head at every moment.I'm already becoming more efficient and making more money.But not quite there yet.

[thaskalos]

I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run that damaged badly what had been a year of a 71% ROI for 10 months,I had to break down my each and every move and impose strict betting rules.Doing so I realized that my reality was getting too far removed from my philosophy.My temper was short and my aggression was too readily apparent.I was trying to force it.I had success to the point where I thought it was time to do business and through sheer force of willpower make a run.

I couldn't even talk about this a month ago.It was a learning experience albeit a very painful one.Instructive nevertheless.I broke down things into odds brackets,grading races,was influenced by the Optimal Position Sizing post on here and made that a point of focus to correspond to the race grades.Each day became less about wins and losses but in analyzing what I was thinking at a certain time.The process.Clearing up the going from point A to point B.If you have any advice about just the flow of playing,preparation,just having that innate sense of balance of gameplan and execution,I would be grateful.I have made a pact this year to not learn any new methodology but focus on what's floating around my head at every moment.I'm already becoming more efficient and making more money.But not quite there yet.

Player psychology is my specialty...and I regret that I don't have the time to address your question right now.

I will be back late tonight...with my opinions on the handicapper's "inner" struggle...

[Greyfox]

I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run.

As Thaskalos is going to expand on this later, let me toss in my two cents worth.

First of all, nearly all players will go on losing streaks, sooner of later. In fact I'm on one now.
Step1. Is accepting the reality that losing streaks happen.

Step2. For me, a losing streak is a message to either play less, bet less,
or even take a total break from the game for a couple of weeks or more.

Secondly, a review of "Why?" you are playing the races, and "Who?" you are playing the races with, and possibly "Where?" you are playing the races, and "What?" races you are playing never hurts. Knowing the answers to those questions can put your play in perspective to other elements in life as well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

As Thaskalos is going to expand on this later, let me toss in my two cents worth.

First of all, nearly all players will go on losing streaks, sooner of later. In fact I'm on one now.
Step1. Is accepting the reality that losing streaks happen.

Step2. For me, a losing streak is a message to either play less, bet less,
or even take a total break from the game for a couple of weeks or more.

Secondly, a review of "Why?" you are playing the races, and "Who?" you are playing the races with, and possibly "Where?" you are playing the races, and "What?" races you are playing never hurts. Knowing the answers to those questions can put your play in perspective to other elements in life as well.

Step 2 was key.While I believe that playing relatively often keeps you sharp,it can lead to just going through the motions.I had to stop and get away from it for a minute.I was having half baked handicapping because of burnout and squandering the good handicapping I did do.I wasn't maximizing the races that were there for me.There were sequences of races I could have crushed because they were give me's.Taking just a few weeks off got my passion sparked back up and my mind focused.I had a great,patient,and winning Saturday this week.I had a prerace gameplan and executed.There were no surprises.I was at least in control of myself and was just odds shopping!

Appreciate your input man.

[Boulder]

Thaskalos,

I would like to see you put up some sample races and see how you take them apart. I think this is a great thing you are doing and just hope you don"t get aggravated with the few that try to ruin it. Is there a way I can send a private e-mail. Thanks Boulder

[thaskalos]

Thaskalos,

I would like to see you put up some sample races and see how you take them apart. I think this is a great thing you are doing and just hope you don"t get aggravated with the few that try to ruin it. Is there a way I can send a private e-mail. Thanks Boulder

Sample races are forthcoming...and they will be the subject of a separate thread.

If you need to contact me privately, send me a PM here...because I haven't yet figured out how to access my e-mail by phone. :)

[bob60566]

Before you consider your sample races, And when selected, Use the fig guys to start your handicapping usually they supply four horses on there lists and good place on there top four has 80% win rate. Bris also supply there power play numbers same thing to handicap down.
Mac:)

[Maximillion]

Thaskalos,

im new here but from reading your posts i understand your a superfecta bettor,

and possibly (like me) an old scool pencil and paper,form in hand player,

so my question is this, when you open your form,do you look for races first where you have identified a longshot to possibly hit the board or do you take apart races at your favorite track(s) etc.?

regards

[thaskalos]

Thaskalos,

im new here but from reading your posts i understand your a superfecta bettor,

and possibly (like me) an old scool pencil and paper,form in hand player,

so my question is this, when you open your form,do you look for races first where you have identified a longshot to possibly hit the board or do you take apart races at your favorite track(s) etc.?

regards

Yes...I am an "old-school", pencil and paper, Form in hand, superfecta bettor.

The only things "hi-tech" about my game are some expensive pens I recently bought, which write even while upside-down...and allow me to write things unto my Racing Form while I am lying down on my couch.

I do not have any "favorite tracks"...I only have favorite races.

I look for full, competitive fields...comprised of older horses, with full past performance records.

[Maximillion]

yes thats whats aggravating about tracks like delta, penn etc. only 6 pps, not a complete ppf profile

[thaskalos]

I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run that damaged badly what had been a year of a 71% ROI for 10 months,I had to break down my each and every move and impose strict betting rules.Doing so I realized that my reality was getting too far removed from my philosophy.My temper was short and my aggression was too readily apparent.I was trying to force it.I had success to the point where I thought it was time to do business and through sheer force of willpower make a run.

I couldn't even talk about this a month ago.It was a learning experience albeit a very painful one.Instructive nevertheless.I broke down things into odds brackets,grading races,was influenced by the Optimal Position Sizing post on here and made that a point of focus to correspond to the race grades.Each day became less about wins and losses but in analyzing what I was thinking at a certain time.The process.Clearing up the going from point A to point B.If you have any advice about just the flow of playing,preparation,just having that innate sense of balance of gameplan and execution,I would be grateful.I have made a pact this year to not learn any new methodology but focus on what's floating around my head at every moment.I'm already becoming more efficient and making more money.But not quite there yet.

Losing streaks are an inescapable part of the game, and the player must learn to effectively deal with them...if he intends to keep his bankroll (and his sanity) intact.

When one of these losing streaks presents itself, you have to ask yourself the following question:

Am I playing my "A" game, and sticking to my normal gameplan...or am I losing control and chasing my losses, thus turning a normal bankroll fluctuation into a possible financial disaster?

When in the middle of a losing streak, it becomes more imprortant than ever to be as disciplined and in control as possible with our bankroll...and our handicapping choices.

If you can keep your composure, and still stick to your normal gameplan in spite of the losing streak...then there is no reason to make any changes to your normal way of doing things -- because losing streaks are very normal in our game...and they often end as suddenly as they appear.

But if you find that you are losing control and starting to "chase" your losses, in order to get "even" quicker than is normally possible...then -- as Greyfox said -- a total break from the game is an excellent idea.

My friend...I want you to remember this:

Losing streaks play a very important role in our development as players...because they reveal to us how "mature" we really are...and how far we still have to go in order to reach the sort of self-mastery that this game requires -- if winning money is our prime motivation.

In this regard, losing streaks are not the "curse" that most players think they are; they are just a "test"...to grade our REAL advancement as players.

When I was first getting serious about online poker, I was often bewildered by the "bad beats" I would suffer...often at the hands of players much less "informed" than I was.

I sought the advice of a friend of mine, who was a professional online poker player...and who played in much bigger games than I did.

"How can I deal with these bad beats?"...I asked him. "I am playing against players much worse than I am...and yet I can't win a hand."

Instead of saying anything to me, he allowed me to watch over his shoulder as he played his own day's session...playing 4 tables of no-limit holdem at the same time -- at stakes 10-times my own.

I was horrified by what I saw...

Here was this high-limit professional player, suffering the exact same bad beats that I was experiencing...except he was losing THOUSANDS in the process -- instead of the insignificant (by comparison) amounts that these bad beats were costing me.

And yet, he wasn't disturbed by this in the least...nor did his gameplan change in the slightest because of this blatant display of bad luck. He played the exact same, selectively-aggressive game he always played...regardless of whether he was winning or losing.

I grew up a lot as a gambler that day...because I realized a very important thing:

We ALL suffer through bad luck in gambling...and the BEST players suffer much more than we do...because they bet a lot more money.

But they stick to their gameplan without deviation, because they have RESPECT for their "game"...and don't want to see it dragged through the mud.

A gambler's life is full of peaks and valleys, and there is nothing any of us can do about it...because it is out of our control.

The only thing we CAN control, is our REACTION to these violent swings of fate.

The best players are not perturbed by them...and they thrive.

Lesser players are tormented by them...and they perish.

And it's only fair, because how you handle adversity is the true measure of a gambler...and of a man, in general...

[Scofield]

Thaskalos,

Im also new to this forum my question to you is before you even open a racing form to handicap the races do you have a set bankroll for the day?

[iceknight]

An excellent thread/forum Thaskalos. Thanks for leading the way in helping others out! I started last year and after a dream run for two months (during summer), I went through valleys and peaks. Took a break and just getting back as the Derby season is warming up!

I am very interested in learning more about figuring out chances of closers vs leaders/off the pace stalkers - under various track conditions. And also about turf races - I still cannot wrap my head around any turf race yet and definitely none of the downhill turfs they do in So Cal circuits.

[castaway01]

No question to ask right now, but I just wanted to say that the post about the mental side of the game was excellent and I really respect what you're trying to do in this forum. Very interesting stuff.

[GaryG]

When you are in the midst of a losing streak self doubt begins to creep in and you have a tendency to overhandicap. You might have a price horse that you are set to play, but when you look closer there are some things that you don't like. Maybe you were wrong and he is not that good. If he wins (and you know he will) and you don't have money on him you have picked a winner while, at the same time, digging a bigger hole for yourself. And on and on. When you lose a head bob finish in which your horse was a ton the best consider it as a victory. You were right, you just don't get paid this time. Just do it the way you do it and things will turn around as they always do.

[thaskalos]

No question to ask right now, but I just wanted to say that the post about the mental side of the game was excellent and I really respect what you're trying to do in this forum. Very interesting stuff.

I appreciate the kind words...

My own gambling journey has been a painful one, and, in retrospect, I realized that much of this pain could have been avoided...had I followed some of the advice I received along the way.

But whom do you listen to...and how can you tell the good advice from the bad?

I keep remembering an old-time gambler...who told me once:

"Gambling wisdom can be learned...but it cannot be taught."

I found that this is very true; ultimately, all winning gamblers are "self-taught"...but a true mentor or two, coming at the right time, can make a world of difference -- if the player is paying attention.

I want to be that sort of mentor to all those who would care to listen...because this game doesn't need any more "victims" than it currently has.

If I can help even ONE player avoid some of the pain that I have gone through...then I will consider my efforts here to be worthwhile.

[Dave Schwartz]

I keep on remembering an old-time gambler...who told me once:

"Gambling wisdom can be learned...but it cannot be taught."

I want to be that sort of mentor to all those who would care to listen...because this game doesn't need any more "victims" than it currently has.


Thask,

Don't those two quotes contradict each other?

Personally, I believe you can teach people. Let me emphasize that differently... YOU (personally) can (probably) teach people.

Granted, there are lessons that must be learned from the inside out which are required to become a world class at anything.

I will also give you that not everyone is capable of learning to win just like I was never able to learn to go to my left, ending any shot I had at a basketball career. (Okay, coupled with the fact that I can't jump and am only 5'9".)

My point is that people can certainly be taught to improve their game (whatever that game might be) but may not be able to improve to the level of world class, which is what it takes to beat the game.


Now that I think of it I guess I can see why those two quotes are not really contradictory. There are simply limitations on the end result.


Dave,

[thaskalos]

Thask,

Don't those two quotes contradict each other?

Personally, I believe you can teach people. Let me emphasize that differently... YOU (personally) can (probably) teach people.

Granted, there are lessons that must be learned from the inside out which are required to become a world class at anything.

I will also give you that not everyone is capable of learning to win just like I was never able to learn to go to my left, ending any shot I had at a basketball career. (Okay, coupled with the fact that I can't jump and am only 5'9".)

My point is that people can certainly be taught to improve their game (whatever that game might be) but may not be able to improve to the level of world class, which is what it takes to beat the game.


Now that I think of it I guess I can see why those two quotes are not really contradictory. There are simply limitations on the end result.


Dave,

I don't think my two quotes contradict each other, Dave...and I'll tell you why:

I spoke a little here about the "mental" side of gambling, which I consider to be of vital importance...but can I really expect those who read what I had to say, to heed my advice when they find themselves in the "heat" of battle?

Not likely...

I told them the TRUTH...but it was MY truth...and it won't become theirs until they embrace it for themselves. And, most likely, that won't start to be the case until they have experienced some of the pain that all undisciplined players expose themselves to...in all the arenas of gambling.

But in the midst of that pain, they might remember me and my advice, just as I remembered the advice that others had given ME...and then, slowly, they may begin embracing the truthfullness of what I initially told them. And then...my "wisdom" becomes theirs to keep.

And both my seemingly conflicting quotes prove themselves to be TRUE!

They ultimately taught "themselves"...but I was still a great help to them along the way...

[thaskalos]

The great Taoist saying goes..."The teacher appears, only when the student is ready"...

In gambling...the student often SAYS that he is "ready" -- but he really ISN'T.

[whodoyoulike]

When you are in the midst of a losing streak self doubt begins to creep in and you have a tendency to overhandicap. You might have a price horse that you are set to play, but when you look closer there are some things that you don't like. Maybe you were wrong and he is not that good. If he wins (and you know he will) and you don't have money on him you have picked a winner while, at the same time, digging a bigger hole for yourself. And on and on. When you lose a head bob finish in which your horse was a ton the best consider it as a victory. You were right, you just don't get paid this time. Just do it the way you do it and things will turn around as they always do.

Do you think a larger bankroll would help you over these times? The question might be, what is the proper bet size based on your bankroll size?

[Pell Mell]

Gus, I agree with most of what you say and having been at the game myself for over 60 years I also have been down that learning road.

One thing I've noticed over the years is that there are an awful lot of players who are not bad handicappers but are liars. Not that they lie to others about what they do but they lie to themselves. They won't admit that the losing path they are following is their own fault but blame it on a million other things.

So I think that some good advice is to learn to look in the mirror and tell that guy you see in there the truth. Mighty hard for some to do.

[GaryG]

Do you think a larger bankroll would help you over these times? The question might be, what is the proper bet size based on your bankroll size?You should not be betting with a large bankroll unless you have proven to yourself that your method(s) are profitable. I would never bet more than 5% on any one race. Losing more than you can afford do to a wild hair impulse can be devastating....

[jdhanover]

A few (I am sure I will think of many, many more) topics/questions that I would be very interested in Gus' (and others') perspectives:

1) Money management - specifically ho you determine the size of the bet in a given race/situation
2) Exotics - I know you are a big superfecta bettor - how do you structure those bets? How do you determine that you have enough value in the the race to bet it? Bet size also comes into play here. And any thoughts on 0ther exotics (horizontal or vertical)
3) Track specific adjustment to your play (if any) - what are they, how did you determine this and why?
4) Layoffs - how do you evaluate them?
5) Trainer and/or jockey impact on your evaluation of a horse
6) Factors that make the last race(s) 'throw outs' versus signs of declining form
7) Turf racing approach vs poly approach vs dirt approach.

Thx for considering any of these

[pauly]

My experience, largely miserable, leads me to believe that I have a losers mentality because i fail to make obvious bets. For example I was all over caleb's posse in the breeder's cup keying him in the various horizontal bets that i'm most interested in. I was playing with short money having been recently (at that time) laid off. So did I make a simple $10 or even $2 to win bet on the horse? Of course not. Another major component of my play is mission impossible. For example, with $80 in my phone account betting two pick 4s and a pick 6. Now for me this is fun even though I realize its insane. I can deal with that. Generally though when I'm actually betting live at an OTB my "psychology" is horrendous and consists of flying from one rage to the next with the stupid bets that inevitably follow. Lately I've been limiting myself to one pick 4 a week betting no more that about $30 and hedging the pick 4 with a double or two and a pick 3. My fantasy is being able to view a pick 4 sequence as a whole and being able to determine the most profitable pick 4 plays and the most effective double and pick 3 plays that will get my $ back at least. Obviously my handicapping is simply not good enuf to do this successfully on a consistent basis but i would like to hear ideas on this type of approach, on hedging in general and on improving my psychology when i'm betting live.

[bob60566]

Superfecta

I frequented a former site Offthepace for about three years before it shut down
the owner played the all the time the superfecta and triactor box but not every race as Vern the moderator woud see no value here. He would wager $320 on his selections and would most time go six deep.
I have never played the superfecta but my time at that site i saw him cash 14k tickets and less many times which he had to declare. He had his losing streaks but knew when to stop with very little damage.
He went 4/5/5/ 6 horses in various combinations and the odd All in the fourth spot he done all this online and posted at various tracks but very seldom on the west coast tracks.
To me he had the right way to play superfecta boxed and had the handicapping skills to match.
Mac

[thaskalos]

Gus, I agree with most of what you say and having been at the game myself for over 60 years I also have been down that learning road.

One thing I've noticed over the years is that there are an awful lot of players who are not bad handicappers but are liars. Not that they lie to others about what they do but they lie to themselves. They won't admit that the losing path they are following is their own fault but blame it on a million other things.

So I think that some good advice is to learn to look in the mirror and tell that guy you see in there the truth. Mighty hard for some to do.

IMO, most players can't handle the truth...about their own play, or about the game itself...

We lose year after year, and yet we refuse to give up our own losing methods of play...because we blame our results on bad luck.

We refuse to acknowledge that this is an extremely difficult game to beat...choosing instead to believe the unscrupulous system sellers and the irresponsible handicapping authors...who tell us that 20-40% long-term profits are out there waiting for us...in exchange for a $20 bill and a little effort.

Who wants to hear that this game is virtually unbeatable without great effort and single-minded dedication?

[Maximillion]

One specific thing i learned about myself, (or my play),and it took maybe 20 years to figure this out(why so long I cant say),is that playing only one circuit-

I would often find a good bet or two on a card (often quickly), and then try to "handicap the hell out of" the other races on the card, and often times the "handicapped to hell" races, that I spent a large amount of time going back and forth on were far less fruitful for me than the ones that seemed to appear relatively early in the process.

[bob60566]

One specific thing i learned about myself, (or my play),and it took maybe 20 years to figure this out(why so long I cant say),is that playing only one circuit-

I would often find a good bet or two on a card (often quickly), and then try to "handicap the hell out of" the other races on the card, and often times the "handicapped to hell" races, that I spent a large amount of time going back and forth on were far less fruitful for me than the ones that seemed to appear relatively early in the process.

Now this is what you have to learn in this game and not take twenty years as the above post and myself have done

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[bob60566]

A few (I am sure I will think of many, many more) topics/questions that I would be very interested in Gus' (and others') perspectives:

1) Money management - specifically ho you determine the size of the bet in a given race/situation
2) Exotics - I know you are a big superfecta bettor - how do you structure those bets? How do you determine that you have enough value in the the race to bet it? Bet size also comes into play here. And any thoughts on 0ther exotics (horizontal or vertical)
3) Track specific adjustment to your play (if any) - what are they, how did you determine this and why?
4) Layoffs - how do you evaluate them?
5) Trainer and/or jockey impact on your evaluation of a horse
6) Factors that make the last race(s) 'throw outs' versus signs of declining form
7) Turf racing approach vs poly approach vs dirt approach.

Thx for considering any of these

If anyone was wagering with all of the above seven questions maybe time to get some outside advice or spend some money on one of the adverisers figures to give you a base.
Mac:confused:

[Robert Goren]

I am hoping that you will get around to how to handle trainers thread sooner later. What do you think of top speed rated horses with bad trainers? What do you think of logical horses with bad trainers? What about long shots with high % trainers?

[thaskalos]

I am hoping that you will get around to how to handle trainers thread sooner later. What do you think of top speed rated horses with bad trainers? What do you think of logical horses with bad trainers? What about long shots with high % trainers?
What does the term "bad trainer" mean to you?

Is a 12-15% winning trainer a "bad trainer"?

[Greyfox]

Guys. You have zillions of questions.
But I don't think that we've scratched the mental side of winning or losing that deeply yet.

Thaskalos has addressed the question of losing streaks well. :ThmbUp:

I think in playing the races the mind-set that the player has when he enters the track or betting competition via his computer at home,
having "self-confidence" in YOUR PICKS AND HOW YOU WILL BET THEM IS A MUST.

When I go to the track/O.T.B. I see too many people asking one another:
"What do you think of this one?" or "What do you like here?"

The average player is likely to get three or four opinions from four or five different people. Whereas his first intuitive hunch was to play the #5 horse that wins, he ends up on some other nag that someone has mentioned to him. Then of course, he's looked at the tote board and figures that his analysis at home must have been faulty as the #5 has 8-1 odds or higher.
In effect, his ears and the eyes on the toteboard have guided him away from what would have been a good score.

Unless you see something horrific about your selection in the Post Parade,
stick with your initial picks. If you are going to lose money, at least let it be on your selections, not someone else's poor picks.
If you plan on winning money, pre-study of the races is Mandatory.
Having put in that energy at home, why veer away from your picks because of what others think?? In other words, show more belief in the idea that you are a winner and will win. If you can't do that, then maybe you should go knit mitts or something.

[bob60566]

I am hoping that you will get around to how to handle trainers thread sooner later. What do you think of top speed rated horses with bad trainers? What do you think of logical horses with bad trainers? What about long shots with high % trainers?

The questions leave a lot to be desired, What track, Turf, and all of the above.

Mac:confused:

[bob60566]

Guys. You have zillions of questions.
But I don't think that we've scratched the mental side of winning or losing that deeply yet.

Thaskalos has addressed the question of losing streaks well. :ThmbUp:

I think in playing the races the mind-set that the player has when he enters the track or betting competition via his computer at home,
having "self-confidence" in YOUR PICKS AND HOW YOU WILL BET THEM IS A MUST.

When I go to the track/O.T.B. I see too many people asking one another:
"What do you think of this one?" or "What do you like here?"

The average player is likely to get three or four opinions from four or five different people. Whereas his first intuitive hunch was to play the #5 horse that wins, he ends up on some other nag that someone has mentioned to him. Then of course, he's looked at the tote board and figures that his analysis at home must have been faulty as the #5 has 8-1 odds or higher.
In effect, his ears and the eyes on the toteboard have guided him away from what would have been a good score.

Unless you see something horrific about your selection in the Post Parade,
stick with your initial picks. If you are going to lose money, at least let it be on your selections, not someone else's poor picks.
If you plan on winning money, pre-study of the races is Mandatory.
Having put in that energy at home, why veer away from your picks because of what others think?? In other words, show more belief in the idea that you are a winner and will win. If you can't do that, then maybe you should go knit mitts or something.

With some of the questions maybe hard to acheive

Mac:confused:

[turninforhome10]

Two things that helped me alot to finally start believing in my handicapping skills
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pubs/PsychologyOfWinningPMTR.pdf
http://www.scribd.com/doc/51568974/Self-Help-Robert-Anthony-Betting-On-Yourself
Great reads about the underappreciated psychology of winning

[Kevroc]

stick with your initial picks.

Reminds me of my days hanging out at the OTB.

I'd routinely buy tickets from people who were headed to the window to cancel. (within reason)

[Robert Goren]

The questions leave a lot to be desired, What track, Turf, and all of the above.

Mac:confused:Generally dirt sprints, although I doubt the track matters much, but lets say NYRA. With shorter fields being the norm the these days I consider bad trainers to be anyone with less than a 10 win percentage and good trainers to have a 20%+ . It looks like with the exception of a very few "name "trainers , that trainers do not effect the odds much. I don't have data base, so I rely on observations that I notice. One of the things I think I have noticed is that really bad trainers(0-5%) only win at a price(10/1+). On the rare occasions that one those trainer that logically figure to be a contender like running IM with close to the highest SR in its last race, they fail miserably. What do you think of a 30% trainer with a 8/1 + shot. Since 30% trainers do get a bet a little, is it a bad sign.

[KingChas]

A gambler's life is full of peaks and valleys, and there is nothing any of us can do about it...because it is out of our control.

The only thing we CAN control, is our REACTION to these violent swings of fate.

The best players are not perturbed by them...and they thrive.

Lesser players are tormented by them...and they perish.

And it's only fair, because how you handle adversity is the true measure of a gambler...and of a man, in general...


Great comments,
Something I had learned early on in my handicapping endevours over the years and my first advice to those new to the game........."Before you learn how to win you must first learn how to lose.".........Tough game. ;)

[raybo]

A few (I am sure I will think of many, many more) topics/questions that I would be very interested in Gus' (and others') perspectives:


2) Exotics - I know you are a big superfecta bettor - how do you structure those bets? How do you determine that you have enough value in the the race to bet it? Bet size also comes into play here. And any thoughts on 0ther exotics (horizontal or vertical)


Thx for considering any of these

Since I specialize in superfectas, I'll mention a couple of things that some people might not know, regarding finding value in a proposed superfecta wager.

Most people who venture into superfecta play think that value comes from the odds on the board. Remember, the odds on the board are not superfecta odds, they are win odds.

Having 3/1, 5/1, 6/1, and 8/1 odds on your ticket may look like value to some, and it might be, if the favorite is less than 2/1. But, generally speaking, value in superfectas comes from, not the odds themselves, but the rankings of the odds. Having the top 3 or 4 odds horses on your ticket decreases the value in that wager, because many players will box the top 4 or 5 odds horses on their ticket(s), meaning if those horses finish on the ticket, many players will have that winning combination and will split the net pool. Being able to rule out 2 or more, of those top 4 or 5 odds horses, increases the value of that wager, because not as many players have the guts to leave lower priced horses off their ticket, and don't have the guts to include the horses that will offer value to the wager.

Also, pool size and field sizes have a large impact on the value of superfecta wagers, larger pools offer a larger "split", when several players hit the wager, and larger field sizes spread out the choices of horses on tickets, disqualifying all those tickets that have not chosen a particular horse or 2, due to the time and effort involved in analyzing so many horses in one race.

Superfecta payouts, when value is found, are well worth the extra study and preparation.

[bob60566]

Generally dirt sprints, although I doubt the track matters much, but lets say NYRA. With shorter fields being the norm the these days I consider bad trainers to be anyone with less than a 10 win percentage and good trainers to have a 20%+ . It looks like with the exception of a very few "name "trainers , that trainers do not effect the odds much. I don't have data base, so I rely on observations that I notice. One of the things I think I have noticed is that really bad trainers(0-5%) only win at a price(10/1+). On the rare occasions that one those trainer that logically figure to be a contender like running IM with close to the highest SR in its last race, they fail miserably. What do you think of a 30% trainer with a 8/1 + shot. Since 30% trainers do get a bet a little, is it a bad sign..


In handicapping and have never played NYRA they are right up there on the top so should i use the same methods in this post Suffolk or BEU.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I appreciate the kind words...

My own gambling journey has been a painful one, and, in retrospect, I realized that much of this pain could have been avoided...had I followed some of the advice I received along the way.

But whom do you listen to...and how can you tell the good advice from the bad?

I keep on remembering an old-time gambler...who told me once:

"Gambling wisdom can be learned...but it cannot be taught."

I found that this is very true; ultimately, all winning gamblers are "self-taught"...but a true mentor or two, coming at the right time, can make a world of difference -- if the player is paying attention.

I want to be that sort of mentor to all those who would care to listen...because this game doesn't need any more "victims" than it currently has.

If I can help even ONE player avoid some of the pain that I have gone through...then I will consider my efforts here to be worthwhile.

I'm pretty burned out by a great Opening Day here in Cincinnati,and I plan on adding more to your excellent post earlier,but this line really grabbed me.I think the wisdom I glean from this is that it definitely is our personal odyssey and evolution that is the most instructive.I think one of my strengths is that I've always trusted my opinion.Even if it contradicted something I read by an author I trusted,or just the toteboard itself.I've always naturally trusted my opinion.At least when I had "The feeling".Like anybody though it can lead down blind alleys or us losing our way in overthought or distraction.This IMO is what mentors are for.It keeps you fresh to talk to somebody who has been there.I think this latest losing streak was caused by hasty beliefs.I had such a good year and "now it was my time" to do it big.I felt it was "time to will myself of age" as a player.Plus maybe a little frustration that it had been a while since I had one of those ridiculous 133% ROI streaks that last over 10 or even 20 days(two of my longest runs).

I did find that I had the ability to step back and relax and put in the work to analyze myself,and break down just the betting and thinking aspect.It's not easy for this type of thing.A lot of ways to look at this.I am willing to do what it takes.I think that diligence will get me where I want.And it has to a decent degree.

[thaskalos]

I am very interested in learning more about figuring out chances of closers vs leaders/off the pace stalkers - under various track conditions. And also about turf races - I still cannot wrap my head around any turf race yet and definitely none of the downhill turfs they do in So Cal circuits.

In the next few days, I plan on introducing a new thread on pace...in which I will thoroughly address the pace matchups that you mention. I have been putting it off because my version of pace handicapping differs from the norm...and I am afraid that my views will lead to wide disagreements. :)

For now, let me say that, IMO, the pace leader vs closer/stalker matchup is a little more complicated than most people think.

I am not too quick to write-off the front runners in an expected speed duel...nor do I believe that fast last quarters are necessarily the best indicators of the race's best closers.

I am also a little slow in accepting that the last fractions are as significant as some people think, when it comes to handicapping turf races.

Please be a little patient, and I promise to revisit this topic in a few days...when I feel a little more courageous. :)

[thaskalos]

A few (I am sure I will think of many, many more) topics/questions that I would be very interested in Gus' (and others') perspectives:

1) Money management - specifically ho you determine the size of the bet in a given race/situation
2) Exotics - I know you are a big superfecta bettor - how do you structure those bets? How do you determine that you have enough value in the the race to bet it? Bet size also comes into play here. And any thoughts on 0ther exotics (horizontal or vertical)
3) Track specific adjustment to your play (if any) - what are they, how did you determine this and why?
4) Layoffs - how do you evaluate them?
5) Trainer and/or jockey impact on your evaluation of a horse
6) Factors that make the last race(s) 'throw outs' versus signs of declining form
7) Turf racing approach vs poly approach vs dirt approach.

Thx for considering any of these

1.) I don't have a sophisticated method of deciding how much to bet on a given race.

I am embarrassed to admit that, even after 30 years of playing this game, I am still unable to determine which races my winners will be coming from. Therefore, I treat all playable races the same, from a betting standpoint...with a few exceptions which I will explain tomorrow when I address your question #2.

2.) This question is a little complicated to answer, so I will leave it for tomorrow.

3.) Painful experience has convinced me that my speed/pace rating methods do not work to my satisfaction at some racetracks...so I have been forced to make some track-specific changes to my gameplan.

Under no condition will I wager even one thin dime on any race at Keeneland, Beulah, Turf Paradise, Mountaineer, Turfway, Laurel and Golden Gate.

I also avoid the turf races at Gulfstream.

4.) If the race is a claimer, then anything over four weeks is a layoff as far as I am concerned. For allowance races, I extend that to six weeks.

I probably bet on a lot more of the "cheaper" races than most players do...so the layoffs are a very important consideration for me.

When I assess a horse coming off a layoff, I ask myself the following question:

How has the trainer been campaining this animal in the past, as far as race spacing is concerned?

If I see that the horse has been steadily racing every 3 weeks or less...then the sudden layoff is a concern to me, and I refuse to believe that the horse will be primed for a top effort first out...regardless of what the workouts or the trainer's stats for layoff horses might say.

The trainer is doing something with the horse that he doesn't normally like to do...so I take notice.

If, on the other hand, I see that the horse has come off layoffs before...then I compare its "comeback" races to the races it had been running before the layoff. If the comeback races compare favorably with the ones before the layoff...then the layoff is not a concern to me...assuming the horse has been working out regularly.

5.) I don't enjoy handicapping the trainers, but, in the current era, it has become sort of a necessity.

If a "supertrainer" is in the race...then I will either pass the race, or my bet will be kept to the bare minimum.

Since I am a superfecta bettor...it doesn't cost me too much to include one of these "miracle" horses in a few of my combinations...but I detest this version of the game, and I don't like participating in it.

Supertrainers aside...I concentrate on the horses, and consider trainers to be a minor consideration.

The same can be said for jockeys...although there are a few jockeys that I refuse to bet on...unless I get a big edge in the odds.

6.) I am a superfecta bettor who makes sizable wagers in every race I play...so I am very careful about any early "form" eliminations.

Even if the recent races look bad to the eye...further analysis might reveal that the horse is a good candidate for one of the minor placings...and the price figures to be too good to miss out on.

I leave the "real" form analysis for later on in the handicapping process...and I don't "throw-out" anything but the terrible-looking horses at the early stages of my handicapping.

7.) Another complicated question which requires more time than I have at the present moment.

Don't forget...Team Zenyatta has a handicapping contest to win. :cool:

Seriously though...I will answer your other two questions tomorrow.

[raybo]

Thas,

Your response to question 2 should be interesting. Our ticket structuring differs quite a bit, on the top, but generally follows the same "geometry(?)".

The 2nd part of that question is a little more complicated. I have tried to explain how I determine value, in superfecta play, before on several occasions, but I fear I have not done as good a job of it as could be done.

Superfecta play, IMO, is still the best "bang for the buck" wager going.

[Greyfox]

I also avoid the turf races at Gulfstream.

.

I'll second that motion. :ThmbUp:

Gulfstream Turf Races

Turf races at GP for me are painfully unpredictable, whether it is the timer, the fence variations, or something about the surface, I do not know.
Unfortunately, my main plays are Pick 3's and turf races sometimes appear right in the middle of them, or maybe even two legs of them at that track.
I've found it necessary to take up to 7 runners in a 12 horse field and then cut back to a single or a pair on the next dirt race.

A few weeks back there the exacta paid over $1000 bucks in one of the card's turf races, which tells me that a lot of horse players are in the same boat as I am on this oval. Of course if you can get through the turf legs, the payouts are rewarding. But what handicapping nightmares they are.

[TrifectaMike]

4.) If the race is a claimer, then anything over four weeks is a layoff as far as I am concerned. For allowance races, I extend that to six weeks.
.

This is ad-hoc approach (extreme simplification) to an extremely complex problem. Read my post lastest post on Speed.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[thaskalos]

This is ad-hoc approach (extreme simplification) to an extremely complex problem. Read my latest post on Speed.

Mike (Dr Beav)

I read your latest post on Speed, Mike...and I believe that the one who is guilty of oversimplifying things is YOU!

Regarding your post here...how can an opinion on what constitutes a "layoff" be called an "extreme oversimplification"?

I didn't know that defining a layoff was was such a complicated matter...

What is a "layoff" to you?

Please read my RESPONSE to your latest post on Speed.

[windoor]

I am very much interested in what you have to say in this thread. I sincerely hope it does not degenerate into a battle of "opinions".

I would like to contribute this if I may.

I will go on record as saying you will never be successful in this game (or most anything else) until you understand your strengths and weaknesses. Then learn to exploit you strengths while managing your weaknesses.

A detailed description of what a winning player does to be successful, will never bear fruit for you, until you can accomplish the above.

Truth:

If it wasn't for runners to go to the OTB for me, and a computer program to list my contenders, I would not be able to show a long term profit. I have come to know my weaknesses (through painful experience) and have found a way to manage them even if I do stumble from time to time.

Ok, I'm done. I'll sit in the corner an be quiet.

Regards,

Windoor.

[TrifectaMike]

I read your latest post on Speed, Mike...and I believe that the one who is guilty of oversimplifying things is YOU!

Regarding your post here...how can an opinion on what constitutes a "layoff" be called an "extreme oversimplification"?

I didn't know that defining a layoff was was such a complicated matter...

What is a "layoff" to you?

Please read my RESPONSE to your latest post on Speed.

By no means am I saying it is simple. In fact, I am saying just the opposite.

Dave recently reported that in his new book he found that the days away factor was 83 days (if I recall correctly). And I believe he has it correctly as an upper bound on an entire population of horses.

My comments refer to specific animals.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[thaskalos]

By no means am I saying it is simple. In fact, I am saying just the opposite.

Dave recently reported that in his new book he found that the days away factor was 83 days (if I recall correctly). And I believe he has it correctly as an upper bound on an entire population of horses.

My comments refer to specific animals.

Mike (Dr Beav)
Miike,

I answered Jon's question according to MY point of view...and you, of course, are welcomed to disagree.

I have bought Dave's most recent book...and I am well aware of his findings, but, eventhough I respect his opinions greatly, I prefer to stick to MY opinions on a few things...as, I suppose, most serious players do.

If the serious player doesn't value HIS opinion above everyone else's...then he should look for another game to play.

[Solid_Gold]

Hello Thaskolos, thanks for under taking this endeavor and I commend you for it.

However, I have some questions?
You mention the PA contest " Team Zenyatta" in which I participated in last year but opted out this year due to health reasons so where did your team finish last year? Seriously I don't remember the standings.

Secondly, where do post your daily/weekly selections as to verify your wisdom.

I am not busting your balls here but would like some sort of verification as to your expertise before I go all in.

Thanks SG

[Dave Schwartz]

SG,

I think that we could spend a month demanding to see the qualifications of anyone who posts (including you or me).

I would respectfully suggest that we adopt attitudes of "wait-and-see" and (better) "what-can-I-learn?"

With or without qualifications, I think it is safe to say that you will recognize a good idea when you hear one.

Again, just my opinion.


Respectfully,
Dave Schwartz

[raybo]

I agree with Dave, but I will go further. One doesn't have to "see" another's selections, or other specific "proof", to know when someone has valuable knowledge. If one cannot "see" that knowledge, without having to see specific "proof", then that person is not nearly as knowledgeable as he/she thinks.

This forum doesn't cost you anything, it's free, so throw it all out with the rest of the garbage, or, hang around and grab those bits and pieces that should be saved.

[thaskalos]

Hello Thaskolos, thanks for under taking this endeavor and I commend you for it.

However, I have some questions?
You mention the PA contest " Team Zenyatta" in which I participated in last year but opted out this year due to health reasons so where did your team finish last year? Seriously I don't remember the standings.

Secondly, where do post your daily/weekly selections as to verify your wisdom.

I am not busting your balls here but would like some sort of verification as to your expertise before I go all in.

Thanks SG
You say you want verification of my expertise before you "go all in".

"All in" is a poker term...and it implies a sizable monetary investment. My advice here is totally free...and I stated at the outset that I will be only presenting my own OPINIONS...which have been formed by 30 years of serious gambling.

I never present myself as a know-it-all...nor do I disparage others for differing opinions of their own.

I am not trying to beat anyone over the head here...I am just trying to generate some useful handicapping and betting discussion.

In that light...what difference does it make where Team Zenyatta finished in the handicapping contest last year?

[Solid_Gold]

As I said, I'm not trying to bust anyone's balls in here.

Thas, I appreciate the timely reply and will opt out of any further discussions and/ opinions on these matters.

Thank you everyone for your opinions.

[thaskalos]

As I said, I'm not trying to bust anyone's balls in here.

Thas, I appreciate the timely reply and will opt out of any further discussions and/ opinions on these matters.

Thank you everyone for your opinions.

Not exactly the reply I anticipated...but I can't force anyone to participate in our discussion if he/she would rather not.

I hope my answer did not offend...

[Ted Craven]

In that light...what difference does it make where Team Zenyatta finished in the handicapping contest last year?
Another thing which I personally find admirable in a teacher is a certain sense of modesty ...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1128566&postcount=114

Ted

[HUSKER55]

HEY GUYS AND GALS,

we are here trying to improve our game. If you can't steer your own ship then that is your problem. No one, and I mean no one,... agrees 100% of the time with anybody.

Want validation? What was the last disagreement with your wife about?

Get my point?

Some points will help your game and some will not. Some will provide insight and some will not. Some will provide a new approach and some will not. Some will be a success for you and some will not.

we are here trying to make a better game for ourselves. Each of us see things differently. There is nothing wrong with that.

JMHO

[turninforhome10]

HEY GUYS AND GALS,

we are here trying to improve our game. If you can't steer your own ship then that is your problem. No one, and I mean no one,... agrees 100% of the time with anybody.

Want validation? What was the last disagreement with your wife about?

Get my point?

Some points will help your game and some will not. Some will provide insight and some will not. Some will provide a new approach and some will not. Some will be a success for you and some will not.

we are here trying to make a better game for ourselves. Each of us see things differently. There is nothing wrong with that.

JMHO


prag·ma·tism

   /ˈprægməˌtɪzəm/ [/url]Show Spelled (http://dictionary.reference.com/help/luna/IPA_pron_key.html)[prag-muh-tiz-uhm] [url=""]Show IPA (http://dictionary.reference.com/help/luna/Spell_pron_key.html)
noun 1. character or conduct that emphasizes practicality.

2. a philosophical movement (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/movement) or system having various forms, but generally stressing practical consequences as constituting the essential criterion in determining meaning, truth, or value.

[HUSKER55]

QUESTION for you data base guys, when a horse moves from the outside to an inside post, say 5 is the divider, is there an advantage, do they win more than their fair share?

Thanks

[Tom]

Dave's samples did not focus only on claimers.
Thask is talking only about claimers here. Might make a difference.

[grant miller]

gezzzzzzz:confused: I fall in love with a horse and keep playing it, and dumping money! I need to take a stand:rolleyes: its killing my wallet!

[JohnGalt1]

Remember the PBS show Wall Street Week? Stock analysts would would suggest stocks to buy. IMO anyone who ran to their borker on Monday and bought their suggestions on blind faith deserved to lose if they didn't research the stocks themselves.

When a stock looked interesting to me I checked it out. Some of their prime picks had no earnings or had huge debts. I'd pass.

To horse handicapping, I've read books and articles with methods and angles that sound good, but I will NOT BET substantial money, or maybe any money until I've researched it and seen it in action.

Say someone wrote that horses off a 17 day layoff was an automatic bet, and claimed they had a 25% win and 2.5% positive ROI (For new handicappers, I just made up this silly angle.) I would handicap in my usual way, but keep track of all horses off 17 day lay offs. If it did win more than normal, I would incorporate it into my betting.

But I would not immediately start betting 17 day layoff horses with both fists because some expert said this was a winning angle.

Another example is American Turf Monthly's angle of the month with one anecdotal race to "prove" it.

Does anyone here blindly start betting this new to you angle?

---------------------------

As we become better, more mature handicappers we become more critical when we read or hear other handicappers methods, and realize that what we just read and heard is baloney, at least for us.

In some books, the author can offer one or two items that I have incorporated into my handicapping, and that is worth the price of the book. So we have to separate the one grain of wheat from the chaff.

In my above 17 day layoff example, we would not even need to test it, we, through experience and logic, know that it's baloney.

And yet, what wouldn't work for me, may work for you, depending on how we bet. Straight, exotic, vertical or horizontal.

[lamboguy]

my italian mommy taught me a very important lesson in life---------THOSE THAT TELL DON'T KNOW, AND THOSE THAT KNOW DON'T TELL.

when you can apply that to equity's and horses you will have a very sound perspective of what goes on in this world on a constant basis.

[HUSKER55]

spot on lamboguy :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

my italian mommy taught me a very important lesson in life---------THOSE THAT TELL DON'T KNOW, AND THOSE THAT KNOW DON'T TELL.

.

There's a problem with that logic? Can you spot it?













(Hint: If your Italian Mom knew anything she wouldn't tell it according to that theory and her very own words.
Another problem is that it is based on the belief that humans are universally Social Darwinists, which just isn't true. Unfortunately, that belief is promoted over and over by several skeptics and it's false. A classic example is this very thread where Thaskalos and others have shared many insights already even though it was only started a short while back. Give your head a shake lamboguy (and learn to use capitals too.) )

[judd]

coo-ma--sta

[dkithore]

Ted.

That was suscint. Thank you.

DK

[maddog42]

my italian mommy taught me a very important lesson in life---------THOSE THAT TELL DON'T KNOW, AND THOSE THAT KNOW DON'T TELL.

when you can apply that to equity's and horses you will have a very sound perspective of what goes on in this world on a constant basis.
Using this logic no one would ever learn anything from anybody. You are partially right though. Thaskalos will probably not reveal all his secrets (nor should he).
I for one appreciate the psychological nuggets more than the handicapping ones.

[lamboguy]

Using this logic no one would ever learn anything from anybody. You are partially right though. Thaskalos will probably not reveal all his secrets (nor should he).
I for one appreciate the psychological nuggets more than the handicapping ones.
i am not trying to knock GUS, he is a very sincere guy that is taking on a very tough task here and doing a great job. from reviewing this thread i have already learned things that i never knew in this game that has already helped me.

the statement that i made was in response to another poster that was talking about a television show that gave out opinions on equities. i always play devils advocate and ask why a guy would come on television and give out winners on stocks if he knew anything about those stocks. most here understand that the business on wall street is to sell stocks. when i see someone touting a stock, i take it for what it is, a guy benefiting somehow by spreading the good news!

[lamboguy]

There's a problem with that logic? Can you spot it?













(Hint: If your Italian Mom knew anything she wouldn't tell it according to that theory and her very own words.
Another problem is that it is based on the belief that humans are universally Social Darwinists, which just isn't true. Unfortunately, that belief is promoted over and over by several skeptics and it's false. A classic example is this very thread where Thaskalos and others have shared many insights already even though it was only started a short while back. Give your head a shake lamboguy (and learn to use capitals too.) )


the only answer i have for you is that there is no truer love in this world than what a mother has for her children, and mother's are always right.

[Greyfox]

I wouldn't disagree with your Mother's love. Whether or not any Mom is always right is debateable.
I have to accept that your comment wasn't a slam on Gus, but unfortunately that was the overt message communicated.
For me that was not acceptable and had to be responded to. I've found that there are several people at the track and on this board who are prepared to share nuggets of good information.
We can all learn from them if we are open-minded.

[shoelessjoe]

When looking at layoffs doesnt anyone take into account how well the
trainer does with them

[Tom]

When looking at layoffs doesnt anyone take into account how well the
trainer does with them

Most definitely!
And work outs, too.
And running style.
And distance.

[Shelby]

I wouldn't disagree with your Mother's love. Whether or not any Mom is always right is debateable.
I have to accept that your comment wasn't a slam on Gus, but unfortunately that was the overt message communicated.
For me that was not acceptable and had to be responded to. I've found that there are several people at the track and on this board who are prepared to share nuggets of good information.
We can all learn from them if we are open-minded.


Lamboguy is one of the nicest, most genuine people on this board. He wasn't trying to insult anyone and nor did I take it that way.

[PaceAdvantage]

Lamboguy is one of the nicest, most genuine people on this board. He wasn't trying to insult anyone and nor did I take it that way.Whether he was trying to or not, he kind of did...and I think he knows it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hello Thaskolos, thanks for under taking this endeavor and I commend you for it.

However, I have some questions?
You mention the PA contest " Team Zenyatta" in which I participated in last year but opted out this year due to health reasons so where did your team finish last year? Seriously I don't remember the standings.His team won the whole thing.

Oh, and they are currently sitting in SECOND PLACE in this year's renewal.

Does that answer your question?

[thaskalos]

Guys, please allow me to explain a few things...

I am not the smartest player in the game, and spending as much time as I have at this site these last few years has made me realize that I am not even as smart as I once thought I was. There are some brilliant players here...

But I LOVE the game...and I love the handicapping and betting aspects of it.

If I have an edge over the betting public, it is not necessarily a "knowledge" edge...

I handicap races late into the night, not only because I have to...but because there is nothing else I would rather do!

When I spend a day wagering at the track, sometimes I forget to even eat...and only realize how hungry I am when I am driving back home. Most days...my 6 o'clock meal is my first "real" meal of the day.

I read a book by James Quinn many years ago, called "The ABCs of Thoroughbred Handicapping"...in which he presented a 500+ page, multiple-choice handicapping and betting test, on every conceivable aspect of this great game of ours.

Quinn reasoned that, unless the player educated himself in all the aspects of handicapping and betting, then he would have no chance in beating this game for the long haul...and perhaps he would be better served if he found another game to play...because he obviously lacked the "studious nature" that this game required.

I believed Quinn at the time...but I have since realized that he was wrong!

It takes more than mere handicapping and betting knowledge to beat this game -- MUCH more.

I have a few radical beliefs about horseplaying and horseplayers...and I will share them with you here...even at the risk of ridicule.

I don't believe that most serious players need to accumulate more handicapping knowledge...because I don't believe that this lack of knowledge is the reason why they lose at the track.

Many of them have all the knowledge they need...but they don't have what it takes to put that knowledge to proper use.

They create a sound handicapping and betting plan, but start attaching unrealistic expectations to it...and quickly abandon it when the going gets tough.

They cannot get used to the wild swings -- both financial and emotional -- inherent in the game of serious gambling...and the game leaves them in a state of hopelessness and confusion.

And they think that their biggest battle is against the other bettors -- or the game itself -- without realizing that their biggest enemy is THEMSELVES.

It is our mastery of the INNER game of gambling that ultimately determines where we end up as gamblers...not the "knowledge" of the game that we profess to possess.

I hear people say that they are great "handicappers", but they are lousy bettors...and that's why they lose in this game. "Tell me more about money management"...they say..."it's my biggest weakness".

They have misdiagnosed their problem...IMO.

Money management is a vital component of the serious horseplayer's gameplan...but there is nothing complicated about it!

In fact...the betting aspect of this game is almost automatic.

1.) You set up a bankroll, which is made up of funds that are not essential to your family's survival.

2.) You determine a reasonable betting unit for your playable races.

3.) When you find a playable race...you walk to the betting window and place your bet.


I can hear you screaming..."C'mon Thaskalos, it's a lot more complicated than that...and you know it."

It really is not.

ALL serious players know what constitutes a proper bankroll for them, and their style of play....and they also know what a "playable race" is...

So where lies the problem?

This is why I started this forum, my friends...

I wanted to better address the INNER workings of the horseplayer's mind...because this subject is not adequately addressed anyplace else.

I will talk about as much handicapping and betting as you want me to...but I promise you one thing:

Mastering the game is not enough...we must master our own selves as well.

And all of the game's consistent winners know this all too well...

This game demands no less...

The "real" game of serious gambling is more about knowing OURSELVES than it is about knowing the game itself.

If the horseplayer doesn't know who he is...then the racetrack is a terribly expensive place for him to go, to find out...

PS...

I appreciate all the kind words of support I have received...and I thank those who have "stuck-up" for me, when they have felt that I was, in some way, being attacked...

But believe me...I didn't last 30 years in this game because I am overly sensitive.

As I have said before...disagreements are welcomed, as long as they are fair, and clearly presented. :)

[thaskalos]

Lamboguy is one of the nicest, most genuine people on this board. He wasn't trying to insult anyone and nor did I take it that way.

Let me say that Lamboguy is my friend -- as is Greyfox -- and nothing they say will ever be taken as an "attack" by me...

[Solid_Gold]

His team won the whole thing.

Oh, and they are currently sitting in SECOND PLACE in this year's renewal.

Does that answer your question?


Thanks for the update PA, much appreciated.

[lamboguy]

Let me say that Lamboguy is my friend -- as is Greyfox -- and nothing they say will ever be taken as an "attack" by me...thank you gus, this just proves how much of a great attitude you have towards everything in life. that is why you are able to not only survive this game, but eak out a win at it.

[Maximillion]

[QUOTE=thaskalos]



I read a book by James Quinn many years ago, called "The ABCs of Thoroughbred Handicapping"...in which he presented a 500+ page, multiple-choice handicapping and betting test, on every conceivable aspect of this great game of ours.


I remember him writing like a 5+ page article in horseplayer magazine on why he believed Fusiachi Pegasus was going to win the derby(he was so convincing I had to bet him, lol)

Mr. Quinn is nothing if not thorough:) (and was one of my favorite articles ever in that magazine)

[Shelby]

Let me say that Lamboguy is my friend -- as is Greyfox -- and nothing they say will ever be taken as an "attack" by me...


:) :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

The question sometimes arises about what books are best suited for the beginning player. For those interested in such information, here are my top choices, preferably to be read in the order given:

Recreational Handicapping -- by James Quinn (there is nothing "recreational" about this book, believe me...)

Thoroughbred Handicapping: State of the Art -- by William Quirin

The Winning Horseplayer -- by Andrew Beyer

A word of caution:

James Quinn uses a somewhat dry and "academic" writting style...and his books may not be the enjoyable reads that Beyer's books are -- but they are very informative.

[windoor]

Guys, please allow me to explain a few things...





I have a few radical beliefs about horseplaying and horseplayers...and I will share them with you here...even at the risk of ridicule.

I don't believe that most serious players need to accumulate more handicapping knowledge...because I don't believe that this lack of knowledge is the reason why they lose at the track.

Many of them have all the knowledge they need...but they don't have what it takes to put that knowledge to proper use.

They create a sound handicapping and betting plan, but start attaching unrealistic expectations to it...and quickly abandon it when the going gets tough.

They cannot get used to the wild swings -- both financial and emotional -- inherent in the game of serious gambling...and the game leaves them in a state of hopelessness and confusion.

And they think that their biggest battle is against the other bettors -- or the game itself -- without realizing that their biggest enemy is THEMSELVES.

It is our mastery of the INNER game of gambling that ultimately determines where we end up as gamblers...not the "knowledge" of the game that we profess to possess.

I hear people say that they are great "handicappers", but they are lousy bettors...and that's why they lose in this game. "Tell me more about money management"...they say..."it's my biggest weakness".

They have misdiagnosed their problem...IMO.

Money management is a vital component of the serious horseplayer's gameplan...but there is nothing complicated about it!

In fact...the betting aspect of this game is almost automatic.

1.) You set up a bankroll, which is made up of funds that are not essential to your family's survival.

2.) You determine a reasonable betting unit for your playable races.

3.) When you find a playable race...you walk to the betting window and place your bet.


I can hear you screaming..."C'mon Thaskalos, it's a lot more complicated than that...and you know it."

It really is not.

ALL serious players know what constitutes a proper bankroll for them, and their style of play....and they also know what a "playable race" is...

So where lies the problem?

This is why I started this forum, my friends...

I wanted to better address the INNER workings of the horseplayer's mind...because this subject is not adequately addressed anyplace else.

I will talk about as much handicapping and betting as you want me to...but I promise you one thing:

Mastering the game is not enough...we must master our own selves as well.

And all of the game's consistent winners know this all too well...

This game demands no less...

The "real" game of serious gambling is more about knowing OURSELVES than it is about knowing the game itself.

If the horseplayer doesn't know who he is...then the racetrack is a terribly expensive place for him to go, to find out...

PS...

I appreciate all the kind words of support I have received...and I thank those who have "stuck-up" for me, when they have felt that I was, in some way, being attacked...

But beleve me...I didn't last 30 years in this game because I am overly sensitive.

As I have said before...disagreements are welcomed, as long as they are fair, and clearly presented. :)


You put it so much more eloquently than I did in my journal, but the sentiment is the same.

I have always believe the typical handicapper already has a selection method that would allow him/her to become profitable, but lacks the mental fortitude to realize it.

I was this way for many, many years until the light bulb went on. It really is a very simple set of rules ( I count five) that is needed. Master those and the rest will fall into place.

I'm not saying there is nothing else to learn. That is never ending. As you say, always a student of the game. I agree.

Regards,

Windoor

[maddog42]

Thask,that is hands down the best post I have ever read here at PA. Howard
Sartin may have been a bit of a phoney and a little bit greedy, but he gave lectures like that all the time. He (and you) was absolutely correct. And before anybody jumps on me about Sartin, let me say I ADMIRED the man very much and learned a lot from him. I am glad you are emphasizing discipline. Being a Poker player you realize the need to "tighten" up.
I know that some people will look at this as a "rah rah pep talk", well, maybe it is. This game is beatable!! I just had a profitable March. That was the first profitable month in a long time. One good bet at a time. Brick by Brick.
So many players are action "junkies". They have absolutely no chance of winning.
Lets get serious here. Thaskalos has given you some very good advice. The mathematics of the game are such that only 1 percent maybe 2 can win. Be a 1
percenter.

[DeltaLover]

And they think that their biggest battle is against the other bettors -- or the game itself -- without realizing that their biggest enemy is THEMSELVES.

The "real" game of serious gambling is more about knowing OURSELVES than it is about knowing the game itself.




This is one of the most important quotes ever written in this forum.

From Socrates to Sigmund Freud and Erich Fromm, the human intellect has reached the conclusion that the constant battle against our ego, the eternal struggle to reveal the hidden driving forces that dictate our evolution as humans consist the core reason for our development as personalities and reveal the reasoning behind every act in our life.

There is a proverb in Greek, saying that you really see the character of an individual when he is either drunk or he is facing a huge gambling lose.

This is absolutely truth as in both cases we have the deeper subconscious motives been revealed presenting the hidden reality that under normal circumstances remains concealed behind conventional behavior.

Talking about gambling it is easy to understand that the instinct of self destructiveness works as a hidden bomb most times leading someone to a disaster just because he completely surrenders to his subconscious which is 'programmed' to destroy him as soon as possible......

After a certain level of loss the gambler no longer thinks rationally, trying in a way to punish himself and never stops until he completely meets this goal.

A very interesting book that spreads some light to the human destructiveness is the following:

http://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Human-Destructiveness-Erich-Fromm/dp/080501604X

[Handiman]

Thask I know you are a poker player as am I. I in fact wrote a poker book called 'The Secret Book of Poker' of which there is only one published copy in existence. Not a big seller....:lol: I don't know how this necessarily pertains to Handicapping, but in the book I wrote a section which basically said, "When you step up to the table and scout the players at the table, if you can't spot the fish, then YOU ARE the fish."

Can't remember exactly where I got that, but my point is that as in poker, in horse racing the person you must beat first is yourself. You must be able to go against your natural inclinations and use the discipline that removes you from all the other fish walking about making bets. And that takes a plan and a plan you can stick to when all else seems to be stacking up against you. Self doubt has been my nemesis for as long as I have played this game. I am just now, 30 + some years into it, making strides in sticking to a plan. I am now starting to show a profit.

Anyway I am rambling, but I want to thank you and all others for participating in this endeavor to make us all better players.

Handi:)

[thaskalos]

Here is a recent interview with Andy Beyer...in which he explains his figure-making process, along with other topics.

Enjoy...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IITxWbq0phY&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvLwY-jSYcw&feature=relmfu

[Greyfox]

After a certain level of loss the gambler no longer thinks rationally, trying in a way to punish himself and never stops until he completely meets this goal.




Said above:

"After a certain level of loss the gambler no longer thinks rationally, trying in a way to punish himself and never stops until he completely meets this goal."


True or Tripe?

I would say..... Tripe!


Yet, that is a very accepted Theory among gambling addiction counselors.

I've known several people in my life that have had major problems with gambling.
They've lost homes and businesses or ...whatever.... but

Fact: I've never met one of them, that did it as a way of
SELF-PUNISHMENT.

SHRINKS - Psychiatrists and Psychologists keep pushing the theory that the gambler down deep wants to "punish himself."
That's what they've been taught.

Unfortunately, most of them are "egg heads" who have never visited a track, Racino, Casino or been through the "School of hard knocks."

My advice here is fairly simple:

If you have a gambling problem or even an addiction to gambling,
look yourself in the mirror and decide what YOU are going to do about it. Get help if necessary, but only if you can't seem to do it on your own. (Ultimately, only you can make the changes.)

If you decide to visit a counselor who says:

"You are gambling for self-punishment."

My advice is : "Run like Hell."

[PaceAdvantage]

Here is a recent interview with Andy Beyer...in which he explains his figure-making process, along with other topics.

Enjoy...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IITxWbq0phY&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvLwY-jSYcw&feature=relmfuThanks for posting these links...really enjoyed watching these...

[maddog42]

Said above:

"After a certain level of loss the gambler no longer thinks rationally, trying in a way to punish himself and never stops until he completely meets this goal."


True or Tripe?

I would say..... Tripe!


Yet, that is a very accepted Theory among gambling addiction counselors.

I've known several people in my life that have had major problems with gambling.
They've lost homes and businesses or ...whatever.... but

Fact: I've never met one of them, that did it as a way of
SELF-PUNISHMENT.

SHRINKS - Psychiatrists and Psychologists keep pushing the theory that the gambler down deep wants to "punish himself."
That's what they've been taught.

Unfortunately, most of them are "egg heads" who have never visited a track, Racino, Casino or been through the "School of hard knocks."

My advice here is fairly simple:

If you have a gambling problem or even an addiction to gambling,
look yourself in the mirror and decide what YOU are going to do about it. Get help if necessary, but only if you can't seem to do it on your own. (Ultimately, only you can make the changes.)

If you decide to visit a counselor who says:

"You are gambling for self-punishment."

My advice is : "Run like Hell."


"Losing homes, businesses or whatever..." . What else would you call it if not self punishment? Self destructive? Addiction? Same thing. The difference is piddling.

[Greyfox]

"Losing homes, businesses or whatever..." . What else would you call it if not self punishment? Self destructive? Addiction? Same thing. The difference is piddling.

What else would I call it?

There are many, many reasons why people do what they do.
With respect to gambling problems
Self-punishment is the least likely, if it exists at all.
For example, a bored housewife plays the slots while her long-distance trucker husband sends home the "bacon."
Why did she do that maddog42???? G'night.

[raybo]

Addiction has many causes, no matter what the addiction concerns. Sure self destruction is one of them, but to say that our subconscious is programmed for self destruction is, in one word, crazy.

One could easily become addicted to gambling for a totally different reason, competitiveness. The desire to win, in a highly competitive person, can overtake all "rational" thought processes.

The "need" to get back what you have already lost, is another cause of non-rational behavior, and I suspect is the most common cause of gambling addition, right behind the need for "action". The player loses a lot of money, to him, and in his/her "rush" to mend those fences, abandons his method, which could be a profitable one.

Even in a good streak, a player might believe his method can't lose, again abandoning his method, which probably includes some sort of "due diligence" built into it. His good streak quickly turns into a bad one, so what does he do? He abandons what might be a profitable method, regressing to previous losing methods he has tried in the past, or jumping on someone else's band wagon that promises untold riches, etc.., etc.. This might not fall under the category of "addiction" but the result is the same, the logical thought process he normally has becomes illogical.

What Thaskalos stated about the battle within us, is absolutely true, I experienced it myself while playing full time a few years back, and it very nearly broke me. I was fortunate that I recognized that something was wrong and stopped playing, completely, and took a long break from the game. After about a year of staying away from the game and reflecting on what took place, I came to the realization that the problem wasn't my method, the problem was "me". I had gained so much confidence in my method that I quit doing part of it, the part that verified that my wagers were good ones, my "due diligence".

Gambling/investing is a constant struggle, internally, to remain true to a proven method. Patience, Discipline, Consistency will see you through.

Someone said something about true character, true character often reveals itself when you are alone, or you think no one is watching. We are "alone" when we gamble, unless you're part of a team, and when you are alone you must be aware that your true character might assert itself at the most inopportune moments, and we must constantly strive to remain "on point", keeping our emotions and their subsequent illogical actions, in check.

[bob60566]

Addiction has many causes, no matter what the addiction concerns. Sure self destruction is one of them, but to say that our subconscious is programmed for self destruction is, in one word, crazy.

One could easily become addicted to gambling for a totally different reason, competitiveness. The desire to win, in a highly competitive person, can overtake all "rational" thought processes.

The "need" to get back what you have already lost, is another cause of non-rational behavior, and I suspect is the most common cause of gambling addition, right behind the need for "action". The player loses a lot of money, to him, and in his/her "rush" to mend those fences, abandons his method, which could be a profitable one.

Even in a good streak, a player might believe his method can't lose, again abandoning his method, which probably includes some sort of "due diligence" built into it. His good streak quickly turns into a bad one, so what does he do? He abandons what might be a profitable method, regressing to previous losing methods he has tried in the past, or jumping on someone else's band wagon that promises untold riches, etc.., etc.. This might not fall under the category of "addiction" but the result is the same, the logical thought process he normally has becomes illogical.

What Thaskalos stated about the battle within us, is absolutely true, I experienced it myself while playing full time a few years back, and it very nearly broke me. I was fortunate that I recognized that something was wrong and stopped playing, completely, and took a long break from the game. After about a year of staying away from the game and reflecting on what took place, I came to the realization that the problem wasn't my method, the problem was "me". I had gained so much confidence in my method that I quit doing part of it, the part that verified that my wagers were good ones, my "due diligence".

Gambling/investing is a constant struggle, internally, to remain true to a proven method. Patience, Discipline, Consistency will see you through.

Someone said something about true character, true character often reveals itself when you are alone, or you think no one is watching. We are "alone" when we gamble, unless you're part of a team, and when you are alone you must be aware that your true character might assert itself at the most inopportune moments, and we must constantly strive to remain "on point", keeping our emotions and their subsequent illogical actions, in check.
Raybo
Thanks for great post and as I have said in the past from your previous posts on this subject in those three words you sum it all up. People ask how do I become a better Handicapper and Bettor so my game will improve, Go no further and instill in your mind those three words.

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[maddog42]

I don't want to take this fine thread off topic by arguing about addiction. I very well may be WRONG. I want to talk about the mind set it takes to win at this very difficult game. I believe attitude is a lot more important than many would believe. This isn't as sexy a topic as class drop/jockey switch or 3rd after layoff, but it is much more important. Many handicappers go to the track (or their computer) expecting to lose. We are making excuses before we get there and certainly after we leave. Excuses will not make you a better handicapper. Hard work will help. Being informed will help. Picking the right horse will help. What?
Only help? Yep. Only help. I have given the "right" horse to people before and
still see them lose money, or only make a fraction of what they should. Hell I have done it myself. Be honest. How many times have you picked a $12 horse
and still lost money? Bad Betting? Yep, but more important, bad attitude. A bad attitude makes you make those crazy 4 horse exacta boxes that are guaranteed to lose money in the long run.
I am NOT saying that you should never make 4 horse exacta boxes, but that situation doesn't come up very often.
Brohamer once stated that the Sartin Seminars had an amway atmosphere.
Sartin would give us a pep talk before going to the track like a football coach
getting his team psyched up.Well it worked, at least on me.

[raybo]

I don't want to take this fine thread off topic by arguing about addiction. I very well may be WRONG. I want to talk about the mind set it takes to win at this very difficult game. I believe attitude is a lot more important than many would believe. This isn't as sexy a topic as class drop/jockey switch or 3rd after layoff, but it is much more important. Many handicappers go to the track (or their computer) expecting to lose. We are making excuses before we get there and certainly after we leave. Excuses will not make you a better handicapper. Hard work will help. Being informed will help. Picking the right horse will help. What?
Only help? Yep. Only help. I have given the "right" horse to people before and
still see them lose money, or only make a fraction of what they should. Hell I have done it myself. Be honest. How many times have you picked a $12 horse
and still lost money? Bad Betting? Yep, but more important, bad attitude. A bad attitude makes you make those crazy 4 horse exacta boxes that are guaranteed to lose money in the long run.
I am NOT saying that you should never make 4 horse exacta boxes, but that situation doesn't come up very often.
Brohamer once stated that the Sartin Seminars had an amway atmosphere.
Sartin would give us a pep talk before going to the track like a football coach
getting his team psyched up.Well it worked, at least on me.

Good post!

I agree, you can be the best handicapper in the world and still lose. There is so much involved in this game, but it all still boils down to one thing, you.

If you can't control you, then you will lose. Controlling you starts with attitude. Positive attitude is imperative to making wise decisions. Positive attitude, long term, is impossible if you lack confidence in your method. If your method hasn't proven to you that it will produce long term profit, before wagering the first real dollar, then don't bet that first real dollar. If you do, you will have lingering doubts about the validity of the method, and those doubts will affect your attitude, and your attitude will in turn affect your thought process and your actions.

[lamboguy]

great stuff RAYBO

it is very windy on the backstretch at PARX today, it might compromise the front runners.

[thaskalos]

Good post!

I agree, you can be the best handicapper in the world and still lose. There is so much involved in this game, but it all still boils down to one thing, you.

If you can't control you, then you will lose. Controlling you starts with attitude. Positive attitude is imperative to making wise decisions. Positive attitude, long term, is impossible if you lack confidence in your method. If your method hasn't proven to you that it will produce long term profit, before wagering the first real dollar, then don't bet that first real dollar. If you do, you will have lingering doubts about the validity of the method, and those doubts will affect your attitude, and your attitude will in turn affect your thought process and your actions.

My friend...you've hit the nail right on the head here, IMO.

We hear so many things being said about "having confidence in what you do"...in any walk of life.

The problem, of course, is...that you can't FAKE confidence...especially in an unambiguous activity like gambling. In gambling...you either have the sort of confidence that comes from years of successful play -- or you DON'T!

And if you don't have it...then you'll have to develop it...the slow, painful way...because this game is fraught with psychological pitfalls, which cannot be successfully dealt with if we are wrestling with self-doubts concerning our own abilities as players.

[raybo]

My friend...you've hit the nail right on the head here, IMO.

We hear so many things being said about "having confidence in what you do"...in any walk of life.

The problem, of course, is...that you can't FAKE confidence...especially in an unambiguous activity like gambling. In gambling...you either have the sort of confidence that comes from years of successful play -- or you DON'T!

And if you don't have it...then you'll have to develop it...the slow, painful way...because this game is fraught with psychological pitfalls, which cannot be successfully dealt with if we are wrestling with self-doubts concerning our own abilities as players.

Yeah, it's a hard pill to swallow, accepting the fact that executing your proven method will only be successful if you do it consistently and unemotionally, all the time.

[Light]

If you can't control you, then you will lose. Controlling you starts with attitude.

That is the "secret" I was talking about. Contrary to misconception,mindset should be the primary factor in your approach to beating the races. Your skills are secondary.

Take "beginners luck". A lot of us with years of experience lose regularly. Why does someone with no experience win. It's not a fluke. It's because his or her mindset is to "win". The chips will fall for whatever mindset (or reality) you have wished to manifest.

Most of us have ANTS (automatic negative thought syndrome). Yesterday I did not prepare myself well (mentally) before playing. I was alive into the last leg of a pick4. I took a break before the race then said to myself "I'm not going to win it", (and I had a strong favorite). I stopped and caught myself in a negative thought pattern. I did lose, ran second. Later I regrouped with a more positive attitude and ended up with a profit for the day. But when I regrouped, I just switched my mode to a "winners mentality". I had no idea what I would play. Would it be exacta,tri,pk3 etc. Those difficult decisions came naturally to me once I had the correct mindset.But when you "try" the hard way and with a negative mindset,good luck cause you will need it.

I know this works. Two years ago I was invited to be a co-player in the DRF NHC with a friend of mine who qualified. I prepared myself mentally before the start. My first 4 plays were all winners and not chalk. I still had my best bet of the day coming up, a bomb at FG. He won too. But one of my horses in the first 4 was dq'ed so we were 10th in the standings after day one.

This was phenomenal. Even my friend asked me how i was coming up with all these winners. It wasn't my skill, it was my mindset. The next day we tanked because 3 of the 4 tracks I was responsible for were cancelled and my friend started freaking out about that and his wife who was there. That totally broke my mindset and we faded to 23rd. Point is it's not so much skill as it is mind over matter.

There is a lot more to this. Suffice to say that you cannot just "wish" it. You must create your reality. The truth is we create our reality in every aspect of life. If you think that the procedure of creating a positive mindset is phony (as I thought initially) and won't work,you just have to look at the affect of placebos and see the miracles they accomplish.

[raybo]

That is the "secret" I was talking about. Contrary to misconception,mindset should be the primary factor in your approach to beating the races. Your skills are secondary.

Take "beginners luck". A lot of us with years of experience lose regularly. Why does someone with no experience win. It's not a fluke. It's because his or her mindset is to "win". The chips will fall for whatever mindset (or reality) you have wished to manifest.

Most of us have ANTS (automatic negative thought syndrome). Yesterday I did not prepare myself well (mentally) before playing. I was alive into the last leg of a pick4. I took a break before the race then said to myself "I'm not going to win it", (and I had a strong favorite). I stopped and caught myself in a negative thought pattern. I did lose, ran second. Later I regrouped with a more positive attitude and ended up with a profit for the day. But when I regrouped, I just switched my mode to a "winners mentality". I had no idea what I would play. Would it be exacta,tri,pk3 etc. Those difficult decisions came naturally to me once I had the correct mindset.But when you "try" the hard way and with a negative mindset,good luck cause you will need it.

I know this works. Two years ago I was invited to be a co-player in the DRF NHC with a friend of mine who qualified. I prepared myself mentally before the start. My first 4 plays were all winners and not chalk. I still had my best bet of the day coming up, a bomb at FG. He won too. But one of my horses in the first 4 was dq'ed so we were 10th in the standings after day one.

This was phenomenal. Even my friend asked me how i was coming up with all these winners. It wasn't my skill, it was my mindset. The next day we tanked because 3 of the 4 tracks I was responsible for were cancelled and my friend started freaking out about that and his wife who was there. That totally broke my mindset and we faded to 23rd. Point is it's not so much skill as it is mind over matter.

There is a lot more to this. Suffice to say that you cannot just "wish" it. You must create your reality. The truth is we create our reality in every aspect of life. If you think that the procedure of creating a positive mindset is phony (as I thought initially) and won't work,you just have to look at the affect of placebos and see the miracles they accomplish.

While I agree, for the most part, with the 1st and last paragraphs, the stuff in the middle seems to be, to me anyway, "out there". Attitude, mental prowess, control of emotions, etc., do not effect the outcome of races. The only thing, in the middle part of your post, that rings true, again, to me, was the emotional collapse you experienced due to your partner's emotional influence on you.

[thaskalos]

That is the "secret" I was talking about. Contrary to misconception,mindset should be the primary factor in your approach to beating the races. Your skills are secondary.

Take "beginners luck". A lot of us with years of experience lose regularly. Why does someone with no experience win. It's not a fluke. It's because his or her mindset is to "win". The chips will fall for whatever mindset (or reality) you have wished to manifest.

Most of us have ANTS (automatic negative thought syndrome). Yesterday I did not prepare myself well (mentally) before playing. I was alive into the last leg of a pick4. I took a break before the race then said to myself "I'm not going to win it", (and I had a strong favorite). I stopped and caught myself in a negative thought pattern. I did lose, ran second. Later I regrouped with a more positive attitude and ended up with a profit for the day. But when I regrouped, I just switched my mode to a "winners mentality". I had no idea what I would play. Would it be exacta,tri,pk3 etc. Those difficult decisions came naturally to me once I had the correct mindset.But when you "try" the hard way and with a negative mindset,good luck cause you will need it.

I know this works. Two years ago I was invited to be a co-player in the DRF NHC with a friend of mine who qualified. I prepared myself mentally before the start. My first 4 plays were all winners and not chalk. I still had my best bet of the day coming up, a bomb at FG. He won too. But one of my horses in the first 4 was dq'ed so we were 10th in the standings after day one.

This was phenomenal. Even my friend asked me how i was coming up with all these winners. It wasn't my skill, it was my mindset. The next day we tanked because 3 of the 4 tracks I was responsible for were cancelled and my friend started freaking out about that and his wife who was there. That totally broke my mindset and we faded to 23rd. Point is it's not so much skill as it is mind over matter.

There is a lot more to this. Suffice to say that you cannot just "wish" it. You must create your reality. The truth is we create our reality in every aspect of life. If you think that the procedure of creating a positive mindset is phony (as I thought initially) and won't work,you just have to look at the affect of placebos and see the miracles they accomplish.

Yeah...but the placebo effect loses its strength when the patient is told that he is given a sugar pill instead of the "real" medicine.

And the beginner's "winning mindset" will also lose its strength, when the realities of day-to-day gambling stare him in the face...and this beginner doesn't have the knowledge and the experience needed for the task.

When I said we needed to master the INNER game of gambling...I didn't mean to downplay the importance of mastering the OUTER part of it.

We need BOTH.

[turninforhome10]

One hurdle that is part of the learning curve is finding a way to go through the handicapping process in a way that make sense to a person's way of thinking. So many times we read the books and use the programs but a streamlined process of getting from the racing program to the final bet can be elusive.
The data that is available is overwhelming and finding numbers that make sense to the logic order of a persons way of thinking can be tough.
Numbers are only as good as the capper making the final bet.
IMHO a handicappers realtionship with their numbers are as\almost intimate as that of their spouse if you are using them to truly try and make a living.
But the first rule for me is to find system that works for you. Untill you are truly comfortable with your numbers and methods you can't concentrate on making wagers.
I equate it to golfing in that sense. The reason I quit golfing was because I could not seperate practice from the actual game. I would go to the practice range twice a week when I first started and within my first summer I was shooting between 5-10 over par, which I was happy with. THe next summer I found myself cheating the practice range and trying to change the flaws in my game during the round.
Moral of the story. You have to got to the races with a solid method\s that you will stick with throughout the card. Work things out on the practice green before trying to use your new putter playing skins with the boss. I have been handicapping for 20 years and not until the last year am I learning the discipline of taking notes, watching replays and thoroughly testing methods against past data. I am finally starting to be able confidently pas races and play against favorites and show a small profit. Years of loosing was chalked up to the a very expensive tution and poor discipline. There are alot of races and learning not to chase was the hardest thing to overcome.

[raybo]

Yeah...but the placebo effect loses its strength when the patient is told that he is given a sugar pill instead the "real" medicine.

And the beginner's "winning mindset" will also lose its strength, when the realities of day-to-day gambling stare him in the face...and this beginner doesn't have the knowledge and the experience needed for the task.

When I said you needed to master the INNER game of gambling...I didn't mean to downplay the importance of mastering the OUTER part of it.

You need BOTH.

Yup! Beginner's luck is just that, "luck".

While a great gambler, with poor skills, might do better than a not so great gambler, with poor skills, that great gambler will still lose long term, unless he improves his skills.

With all the tools we have today, improving one's skills is almost assured if one puts in the work required to learn and use the tools as they were designed to be used. The wagering and mental/emotional portion of the equation are not assured, and require a certain "inner strength" that most do not possess. Can it be obtained? Yes, but at a cost most are unable or unwilling to pay.

While "being in the zone" happens to almost everyone, from time to time, "staying in the zone" requires a certain "state of being", an inner serenity in the face of adversity and chaos, which promotes clarity of thought and the ability to make logical decisions, quickly. Attaining that "state", if you don't already possess it, takes much work, and dedication of mind and spirit.

[Light]

Attitude, mental prowess, control of emotions, etc., do not effect the outcome of races.

There are 2 recent cases of people winning the lottery with their minds. Both wrote the exact amount they wanted to win on a piece of paper and placed it under their pillow and slept on it. One won for $112 Million and the other for $166 Million. This was the same amount written on their papers.

Their minds affected the lottery balls coming out of the lottery hopper. Not only that but the amount desired. Yes your mind can affect the races too. Like I said, there is a lot more to this than what I just said.

[bob60566]

There are 2 recent cases of people winning the lottery with their minds. Both wrote the exact amount they wanted to win on a piece of paper and placed it under their pillow and slept on it. One won for $112 Million and the other for $166 Million. This was the same amount written on their papers.

Their minds affected the lottery balls coming out of the lottery hopper. Not only that but the amount desired. Yes your mind can affect the races too. Like I said, there is a lot more to this than what I just said.

Well I will be test for this in the Kentucky Derby

Daddy Nose Best goes under my pilow tonight I do not need any luck it is all taken care of no redboarding here !.

Mac;)

[Aner]

There are 2 recent cases of people winning the lottery with their minds. Both wrote the exact amount they wanted to win on a piece of paper and placed it under their pillow and slept on it. One won for $112 Million and the other for $166 Million. This was the same amount written on their papers.

Their minds affected the lottery balls coming out of the lottery hopper. Not only that but the amount desired. Yes your mind can affect the races too. Like I said, there is a lot more to this than what I just said.


Those lotto players dreamed too small. Why didn't they write down $112 BILLION and $166 billion. Do you think perhaps their choice of the amount was influenced by the predicted jackpot?

[bcgreg]

Their minds affected the lottery balls coming out of the lottery hopper. Not only that but the amount desired. Yes your mind can affect the races too. Like I said, there is a lot more to this than what I just said.

You really believe this don't you.

[Light]

Why didn't they write down $112 BILLION and $166 billion.

Because if it impractical to the point where you can't believe it, it won't happen.

[Light]

Yeah...but the placebo effect loses its strength when the patient is told that he is given a sugar pill instead of the "real" medicine.

And the beginner's "winning mindset" will also lose its strength, when the realities of day-to-day gambling stare him in the face...and this beginner doesn't have the knowledge and the experience needed for the task.

When I said we needed to master the INNER game of gambling...I didn't mean to downplay the importance of mastering the OUTER part of it.

We need BOTH.

The reason the "beginners luck" fades is because he is "taught" what he just accomplished was "luck". Previously he was as innocent as a child and had no negative thoughts about going to the races for "fun". Now after he wins and spreads the word that he won, he is "taught" he was just "lucky". The truth is there is no such thing as "luck" or "accidents".

[bob60566]

The reason the "beginners luck" fades is because he is "taught" what he just accomplished was "luck". Previously he was as innocent as a child and had no negative thoughts about going to the races for "fun". Now after he wins and spreads the word that he won, he is "taught" he was just "lucky". The truth is there is no such thing as "luck" or "accidents".

Now I have to agree on that statement big time.

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

Yes your mind can affect the races too. Like I said, there is a lot more to this than what I just said.

Good luck with that idea. There is no harm in you believing it.
Shakti Gawain pushed that idea in her book "Creative Visualization."
see -->http://www.shaktigawain.com/products/books/creative-visualization

The problem with the idea though is that where you might be trying to envision your horse winning, thousands of others are visualizing other horses winning every race that you play.
Personally, I believe that this falls into the category of "Superstitious Thinking" and absolutely does not work when it comes to the dynamics and outcomes of horse racing.

[cj]

...absolutely does not work when it comes to the dynamics and outcomes of horse racing.

Of course it doesn't work. It is completely ridiculous.

[bob60566]

Of course it doesn't work. It is completely ridiculous.

As they say Light up my life.

Mac:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[raybo]

No comment, because it doesn't deserve one.

[thaskalos]

The moderator's job is a lot more difficult than it seems... :)

[PaceAdvantage]

The moderator's job is a lot more difficult than it seems... :)Especially when he seems to be reluctant to use the powers bestowed upon him... :lol:

[JohnGalt1]

Let me suggest this, "It's not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game."

By that I mean, if you have a winning profitable method, and if you bet the right horse in the best way for you (win, exotic), the results,win or loss, should be acceptable, because you played the right way. (Even thought he results might hurt (suck?).

In blackjack if you are dealt ten, six, you should hit if the dealer has 7 or higher up card. You are at a disadvantage and will probably lose, but you played it the right way.

If you have a total of 10, you should double down on a dealer card of 2-9. On this hand you have the advantage and regardless of the result, you played it the right way.

This confidence and understanding their abililty explains why some gamblers take losses in stride, and why some don't go on tilt at the tables or at the track.

If my method put me on a 3-5 horse, I don't bet against it, but I don't put win money on it either. Maybe I'll put it in a pick 4, 5, or 6 depending if I don't have other odds-on horses.

If my method puts me on a 9-2 horse, for sure I'll put my normal win bet on it. If it loses, it was the right thing to do, even if it hurts (sucks.) And even if I can see a reason why the the eventual winner won, before the race, when I had to decide and bet, I felt my horse was the most likely winner.

[bob60566]

Let me suggest this, "It's not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game."

By that I mean, if you have a winning profitable method, and if you bet the right horse in the best way for you (win, exotic), the results,win or loss, should be acceptable, because you played the right way. (Even thought he results might hurt (suck?).

In blackjack if you are dealt ten, six, you should hit if the dealer has 7 or higher up card. You are at a disadvantage and will probably lose, but you played it the right way.

If you have a total of 10, you should double down on a dealer card of 2-9. On this hand you have the advantage and regardless of the result, you played it the right way.

This confidence and understanding their abililty explains why some gamblers take losses in stride, and why some don't go on tilt at the tables or at the track.

If my method put me on a 3-5 horse, I don't bet against it, but I don't put win money on it either. Maybe I'll put it in a pick 4, 5, or 6 depending if I don't have other odds-on horses.

If my method puts me on a 9-2 horse, for sure I'll put my normal win bet on it. If it loses, it was the right thing to do, even if it hurts (sucks.) And even if I can see a reason why the the eventual winner won, before the race, when I had to decide and bet, I felt my horse was the most likely winner.
Great advice
Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Dahoss9698]

Last night before I went to bed I wrote on a piece of paper that I wished I could see Light actually have an opinion on a horse race, instead of the usual chickenshit jealous nonsense he posts. I put it under my pillow and slept on it.

Let's see if it worked.

[windoor]

That is the "secret" I was talking about. Contrary to misconception,mindset should be the primary factor in your approach to beating the races. Your skills are secondary.

Take "beginners luck". A lot of us with years of experience lose regularly. Why does someone with no experience win. It's not a fluke. It's because his or her mindset is to "win". The chips will fall for whatever mindset (or reality) you have wished to manifest.

Most of us have ANTS (automatic negative thought syndrome). Yesterday I did not prepare myself well (mentally) before playing. I was alive into the last leg of a pick4. I took a break before the race then said to myself "I'm not going to win it", (and I had a strong favorite). I stopped and caught myself in a negative thought pattern. I did lose, ran second. Later I regrouped with a more positive attitude and ended up with a profit for the day. But when I regrouped, I just switched my mode to a "winners mentality". I had no idea what I would play. Would it be exacta,tri,pk3 etc. Those difficult decisions came naturally to me once I had the correct mindset.But when you "try" the hard way and with a negative mindset,good luck cause you will need it.

I know this works. Two years ago I was invited to be a co-player in the DRF NHC with a friend of mine who qualified. I prepared myself mentally before the start. My first 4 plays were all winners and not chalk. I still had my best bet of the day coming up, a bomb at FG. He won too. But one of my horses in the first 4 was dq'ed so we were 10th in the standings after day one.

This was phenomenal. Even my friend asked me how i was coming up with all these winners. It wasn't my skill, it was my mindset. The next day we tanked because 3 of the 4 tracks I was responsible for were cancelled and my friend started freaking out about that and his wife who was there. That totally broke my mindset and we faded to 23rd. Point is it's not so much skill as it is mind over matter.

There is a lot more to this. Suffice to say that you cannot just "wish" it. You must create your reality. The truth is we create our reality in every aspect of life. If you think that the procedure of creating a positive mindset is phony (as I thought initially) and won't work,you just have to look at the affect of placebos and see the miracles they accomplish.


I for one, would not discard this statement out of hand.

I do not consider myself a superstitious man, but I do find my self taking some extra precautions when facing a path under a ladder, or making decisions on Friday the 13th.
I still have a healthy respect for things I do not understand.

I am also a strong believer in Karma. It has proven itself to me many times over the course of my life. I have no doubts it exists and can change your life in some dramatic ways.

I have also read a book called " The voyages of a reluctant messiah" that closely agrees with Lights statements. We make our own reality based on our experiences and belief.

It has to do with us setting our own limits early in life and then living with them. We are preconceived to think we must "pay our dues" to be successful at anything we do. How much is owed, is a state of mind that is set in our early years. A small failure or two here can mean much hardship later in life when we try to be successful in a certain thing.

I have met people who have a such a negative attitude with everything they try to accomplish, that they are doomed to fail, before they get started. They look for ways to self destruct to prove themselves right, without realizing they are doing so. It does not take long before they give up trying altogether. A miserable existence.

I do believe a positive mental attitude is quite necessary for any endeavor to be successful. The amount of time and effort you need to invest is a number already in your head. Only when you feel you have paid your dues, will you then accomplish your goal. Those who truly want something and believe it is possible, will find a way to make is so.

Regards,

Windoor

[Greyfox]

Windoor - No one is disputing the value of having a positive mind set and a winner's mentality.
Believing that the "mind can influence matter" to the point that it can actually influence the outcome of a horse race is irrational thinking with zero basis in reality.

[thaskalos]

I for one, would not discard this statement out of hand.

I do not consider myself a superstitious man, but I do find my self taking some extra precautions when facing a path under a ladder, or making decisions on Friday the 13th.
I still have a healthy respect for things I do not understand.

I am also a strong believer in Karma. It has proven itself to me many times over the course of my life. I have no doubts it exists and can change your life in some dramatic ways.

I have also read a book called " The voyages of a reluctant messiah" that closely agrees with Lights statements. We make our own reality based on our experiences and belief.

It has to do with us setting our own limits early in life and then living with them. We are preconceived to think we must "pay our dues" to be successful at anything we do. How much is owed, is a state of mind that is set in our early years. A small failure or two here can mean much hardship later in life when we try to be successful in a certain thing.

I have met people who have a such a negative attitude with everything they try to accomplish, that they are doomed to fail, before they get started. They look for ways to self destruct to prove themselves right, without realizing they are doing so. It does not take long before they give up trying altogether. A miserable existence.

I do believe a positive mental attitude is quite necessary for any endeavor to be successful. The amount of time and effort you need to invest is a number already in your head. Only when you feel you have paid your dues, will you then accomplish your goal. Those who truly want something and believe it is possible, will find a way to make is so.

Regards,

Windoor

I believe that the book you are talking about is called "Illusions; The Adventures of a Reluctant Messiah".

I've read the book...and IMO, it has NOTHING to do with what Light is talking about in this thread.

Look...let's try to keep it "real" here...

We are playing a game which has been correctly characterized as the most difficult gambling game to beat in existence...and we are not going to beat it just by indulging in wishful thinking...or by sleeping with our picks under our pillow -- hoping that our mind will somehow influence the next day's results.

What Light is suggesting, is BEYOND ridiculous.

[raybo]

I for one, would not discard this statement out of hand.

I do not consider myself a superstitious man, but I do find my self taking some extra precautions when facing a path under a ladder, or making decisions on Friday the 13th.
I still have a healthy respect for things I do not understand.

I am also a strong believer in Karma. It has proven itself to me many times over the course of my life. I have no doubts it exists and can change your life in some dramatic ways.

I have also read a book called " The voyages of a reluctant messiah" that closely agrees with Lights statements. We make our own reality based on our experiences and belief.

It has to do with us setting our own limits early in life and then living with them. We are preconceived to think we must "pay our dues" to be successful at anything we do. How much is owed, is a state of mind that is set in our early years. A small failure or two here can mean much hardship later in life when we try to be successful in a certain thing.

I have met people who have a such a negative attitude with everything they try to accomplish, that they are doomed to fail, before they get started. They look for ways to self destruct to prove themselves right, without realizing they are doing so. It does not take long before they give up trying altogether. A miserable existence.

I do believe a positive mental attitude is quite necessary for any endeavor to be successful. The amount of time and effort you need to invest is a number already in your head. Only when you feel you have paid your dues, will you then accomplish your goal. Those who truly want something and believe it is possible, will find a way to make is so.

Regards,

Windoor

Granted, attitude can shape our reality, that doesn't mean it can effect the outcome of things we have no control over, like horse races. Unless you are personally involved, meaning owner, jockey, trainer, stable boy, etc., what possible effect can you have on any horse, or it's subsequent performances? Come on now, are you telling me that simply by believing strongly enough that your horse will win, that will make it so?

We shape our reality by affecting others, which can cause their attitude towards you or your situation or some related person or situation to change. And it can have a "snowballing" affect, from one person and one situation to another, and on and on. But, you have a personal connection to at least 1 actual entity involved in that scenario.

I doubt talking positively to the cashier at the window will have a snowballing effect on that race.

The value of positive attitude, as a player, is that it puts us in the best possible frame of mind, for making good decisions, being able to concentrate and keeping a level head amid distractions, failure (and success), chaos, etc.. Unless you have personal contact with the horses in a race, they have no idea what your "karma" is, or whether you want them to win or lose.

Positive thinking is imperative to being a successful player, but it does not affect the performances of the horses in races, believe me, because the vast majority of the time I have a very positive attitude, but I've yet to see any evidence that it caused a horse to win or lose, that didn't have a real, concrete, reason for doing so.

If you guys want to believe what Light professes, go ahead, but don't expect your success or failure in racing to improve without taking care of all the other things that make for good decision making and good handicapping and wagering skills.

Since I have never seen evidence that Light has made a fortune wagering on horse races, maybe he has missed his calling in life. Maybe he should have become an evangelist. Heaven knows there are plenty of weak-minded people out there who would gladly send him their money, for performing one of his miraculous mind over matter exhibitions.

[thaskalos]

Last night before I went to bed I wrote on a piece of paper that I wished I could see Light actually have an opinion on a horse race, instead of the usual chickenshit jealous nonsense he posts. I put it under my pillow and slept on it.

Let's see if it worked.

According to Light...there is no reason why it shouldn't...:)

[thaskalos]

Since I have never seen evidence that Light has made a fortune wagering on horse races, maybe he has missed his calling in life. Maybe he should have become an evangelist. Heaven knows there are plenty of weak-minded people out there who would gladly send him their money, for performing one of his miraculous mind over matter exhibitions.

My question to Light would be:

Why even bother with horse racing at all...if our mind can be relied upon to secure for us a $100,000,000 lotto jackpot?

[sammy the sage]

What's the DIFFERENCE between THIS thread and this thread...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=92454

Guess I'm dense :bang:

[thaskalos]

What's the DIFFERENCE between THIS thread and this thread...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=92454

Guess I'm dense :bang:
Sammy...

I am willing to start your very own thread here...if you will just promise to make semi-regular contributions to it.

[Light]

I am somewhat relieved that most (save Windoor) found what I said ridiculous. This goes deeper than you know and I am not interested in spoon feeding horse players about the cosmos and the subconscious mind.If there was a more open attitude I would have considered it. Excuse my interruption.

[Greyfox]

I am somewhat relieved that most (save Windoor) found what I said ridiculous. This goes deeper than you know and I am not interested in spoon feeding horse players about the cosmos and the subconscious mind. If there was a more open attitude I would have considered it. Excuse my interruption.

The subconscious mind has a role in analyzing all information.
For example, we forget a former workmate's name.
Then half an hour later we remember it without even thinking about it apparently.
Or we try to solve a crossword in the morning.
That evening we pick the puzzle up and the answers that we've missed jump right off the page.
The process of how the mind does that is called "incubation."
That process can be very helpful to the horse player.
If we review a race the evening before and then sleep on it, we are likely to see puzzling races with more clarity the second time we look at them. Out of awareness, the subconscious has performed some analyses.
In that respect the subconscious mind can be a very good friend.

But to suggest that we can use some type of psychokinesis which will impact the outcome of a race is poppycock.

[Light]

But to suggest that we can use some type of psychokinesis which will impact the outcome of a race is poppycock.

If you don't understand the dynamic,it will appear that I am talking poppycock.

[Handiman]

Light,

I honestly don't understand why you are even on this board. During my work on Handifast, you waded in with mostly if not all negative comments. You're appearance in any thread is like walking out in a thunderstorm and holding a giant metal rod in the air and daring Nature to strike you.

I could understand if you brought to the table any constructive methods of selection, or race analysis, but just the opposite occurs. You ridicule a poster or offer up some seemly disjointed tangent which is at best remotely connected to Handicapping.

On top of that, you paint your handicapping prowess much like the old guy in 'Wizard of Oz' held out his power..... all knowing, yet kept hidden behind the curtain. Until you put forth evidence of your ability to beat this game for all to see here, your comments will most likely be tossed on the pile of refuse resembling that which is removed from horse stalls.

Handi:)

[windoor]

I believe that the book you are talking about is called "Illusions; The Adventures of a Reluctant Messiah".

We are playing a game which has been correctly characterized as the most difficult gambling game to beat in existence...and we are not going to beat it just by indulging in wishful thinking...or by sleeping with our picks under our pillow -- hoping that our mind will somehow influence the next day's results.

What Light is suggesting, is BEYOND ridiculous.

I believe you are correct on the title. It was many years ago and my memory is a bit faulty.

Is not that we can affect the outcome, but rather see it coming.

Maybe I did a little too much LSD and DMT in the sixties ( I have been to the machine world) and it has affected my outlook on such things.

That's the last I'll say on it, because it gets a little weird after that.

Regards,


Windoor

[Greyfox]

Is not that we can affect the outcome, but rather see it coming.

Windoor

Visualizing how you see a race unfolding is a healthy practice for horse players.
Having said that practising Kuan Tao or tapping into New Age ideas like those expressed in The Men Who Stare at Goats can be mind-expanding.

Nevertheless, the outcome of a horse race will never be impacted by a spectator in the crowd doing supposed psychokinesis.

[bob60566]

Visualizing how you see a race unfolding is a healthy practice for horse players.
Having said that practising Kuan Tao or tapping into New Age ideas like those expressed in The Men Who Stare at Goats can be mind-expanding.

Nevertheless, the outcome of a horse race will never be impacted by a spectator in the crowd doing supposed psychokinesis.

Think this post needs thread of it its own no goat jokes alllowed.

Mac:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[Greyfox]

Think this post needs thread of it its own no goat jokes alllowed.

Mac:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

I couldn't disagree more.
If you are not visualizing how a race will likely unfold, you are missing a very valuable item in your handicapping regimen.
That post deserves to be squarely in this thread.

[Light]

Nevertheless, the outcome of a horse race will never be impacted by a spectator in the crowd doing supposed psychokinesis.

You keep interjecting your ignorant understanding of what I said. I never said the method is psychokinesis. I said you can influence the outcome. You assumed it would be voodoo,levitation,or psychokinesis etc.It is not.

[bob60566]

I couldn't disagree more.
If you are not visualizing how a race will likely unfold, you are missing a very valuable item in your handicapping regimen.
That post deserves to be squarely in this thread.

What about the goats in my handicapping style in visualization in how the race will be run.

Mac;) ;) ;)

[bob60566]

You keep interjecting your ignorant understanding of what I said. I never said the method is psychokinesis. I said you can influence the outcome. You assumed it would be voodoo,levitation,or psychokinesis etc.It is not.

You have on two threads told us about your under the pillow angle we are all including this in our nightime regime.

[Greyfox]

You keep interjecting your ignorant understanding of what I said. I never said the method is psychokinesis. I said you can influence the outcome. You assumed it would be voodoo,levitation,or psychokinesis etc.It is not.

Whatever it is, and by the way psychokinesis is mind over matter, I hope to remain ignorant of whatever borderline psychotic belief that you have regarding that you can influence the outcome of a race via thought.

Let's get back to talking about the reality of horse races.

[raybo]

Can we move on please?

[Light]

I hope to remain ignorant of whatever borderline psychotic belief that you have regarding that you can influence the outcome of a race via thought.



Again,you are interjecting your misunderstanding of what I am saying.

The outcome of a race is decided by a power greater than anyone. For me to challenge that power and impose my will is futile. So you can rest assured I will not be using psychokinesis or mind bending powers any time soon.

Now let me tell you what I am talking about.(you could have asked). Consider this statement scientifically proven to be true.

"When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change."

This is how those 2 people influenced the lottery. This is how you can influence the races. Again this is just a very small portion of what I am talking about.

[bob60566]

Again,you are interjecting your misunderstanding of what I am saying.

The outcome of a race is decided by a power greater than anyone. For me to challenge that power and impose my will is futile. So you can rest assured I will not be using psychokinesis or mind bending powers any time soon.

Now let me tell you what I am talking about.(you could have asked). Consider this statement scientifically proven to be true.

"When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change."

This is how those 2 people influenced the lottery. This is how you can influence the races. Again this is just a very small portion of what I am talking about.
Sunshine go to bed

[Light]

So if I told you I won $100 million in the lottery this way, would you listen? Good Bye. You had your chance.

[Blenheim]

Light,

I understand the dynamic here but I think you might be oversimplifying it a bit.

It is one thing to be in tune with the energy, but another thing altogether to have the requisite skill set to work with and make use of that energy. A fine example is you at the DRF NHC. Winning like you did the first day took a great deal of planning and skill. If you didn't have the planning and skill, what good would become of all the energy?

No doubt true, when you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change. Seen it and been a part of it more times than I can count. And I do agree w/the subconscious part of it. Most evenings before I hit the sack I think of that last or last few winners I've picked - Le Bernadin, Gemologist, Robert' Breach, Trinniberg, Amazombie! I want my subconscious to be thinkin' winners and be thinkin' bout' that key piece of information I discovered in the past performances. When I am in the conscious mode doin' my handicappin' picking the winners is simply lettin' it flow and gettin' my mind out of the way of that winnin' energy.

I'm havin' the greatest journey and don't ever recall picking so many winners week after week.

[speed]

So if I told you I won $100 million in the lottery this way, would you listen? Good Bye. You had your chance.
Priceless

[Tom]

The outcome of a race is decided by a power greater than anyone.

The VET? :D

Jim the Hat used to tell the story of a guy who would look in to the mirror and repeat over and over, "You are a winner. You are a winner......"

One day, the mirror replied, "No you aren't!

[cj]

Light,
Most evenings before I hit the sack I think of that last or last few winners I've picked - Le Bernadin, Gemologist, Robert' Breach, Trinniberg, Amazombie! .



You needed positive reinforcement to get Trinniberg home? Really?

[duncan04]

So if I told you I won $100 million in the lottery this way, would you listen? Good Bye. You had your chance.

Wow!! :eek: Not only is he an expert handicapper he also is a lottery winner!! :rolleyes: :bang: :ThmbDown:

[riskman]

This thread has gone the way of asking Saint Jude Thaddeus', the patron Saint of the impossible causes to intercede and give me a 50-1 long shot similar to Giacomo who sprang the second biggest upset in Derby history and produced a superfecta payoff of $864,253.

Amen.

[Greyfox]

This thread has gone the way of asking Saint Jude Thaddeus', the patron Saint of the impossible causes to intercede and give me a 50-1 long shot similar to Giacomo who sprang the second biggest upset in Derby history and produced a superfecta payoff of $864,253.

Amen.

I had Giacomo. He figured to have excellent closing speed in a field where the early foot might collapse. His trainer John Shirriffs is an excellent horseman (he also trained Zenyatta) and Mike Smith was a competent rider.
From a Beyer numbers perspective he had to be long odds, but that closing kick ability made him an overlay with a better than his odds chance.

[Blenheim]

You guys and gals have heard of the "zone" no?

You know, when the jump shot always seems to go in no matter where you shoot it from; the putt always seems to find the cup, even on the chip shot; the bat always seems to hit the ball, even the knuckler; every cast you make a fish seems to strike; and of course when you just seem to can't help but pick winner after winner and to your dismay when you discover you've picked the wrong horse at the wrong track, that horse still wins :lol:. Tiz the zone!

Have not we all been there . . . " in the zone?" I think most of us have been there - it exists but we can't find the words to describe it, science can't prove it, but most of us that have experienced it would agree such a "zone' exists.

Now imagine, if you can, being in partnership . . . in league with the zone. You know it is there, you know how to tap into it and can do so at will . . .

[HUSKER55]

yes I have. for example...I am in a zone right now! ;)

[raybo]

You guys and gals have heard of the "zone" no?

You know, when the jump shot always seems to go in no matter where you shoot it from; the putt always seems to find the cup, even on the chip shot; the bat always seems to hit the ball, even the knuckler; every cast you make a fish seems to strike; and of course when you just seem to can't help but pick winner after winner and to your dismay when you discover you've picked the wrong horse at the wrong track, that horse still wins :lol:. Tiz the zone!

Have not we all been there . . . " in the zone?" I think most of us have been there - it exists but we can't find the words to describe it, science can't prove it, but most of us that have experienced it would agree such a "zone' exists.

Now imagine, if you can, being in partnership . . . in league with the zone. You know it is there, you know how to tap into it and can do so at will . . .

I mentioned "being in the zone" in a previous post. Yes, most players experience this. One of the keys to being successful is to "stay in the zone" every time you play. That calls for positive attitude, and an inner strength that most players don't have. They get distracted, lose concentration, go "on tilt", etc., and make bad decisions. We have already stated that a positive attitude, and the ability to remain unemotional during our play, is imperative to making wise decisions.

It has nothing to do with any "fantastical" mind over matter crap. It's positive attitude, inner strength, and discipline. Some have it, but most don't, and are unwilling, or unable to do what is necessary to gain those things.

That's why there are winning gamblers and losing gamblers, even having the same skills otherwise.

Anyone who has been an athlete knows what I'm talking about. Anyone who has been in combat in the military knows what I'm talking about. Yes, it can be taught/learned but most don't have the discipline and intestinal fortitude to attain a high level of it. All the best coaching in the world won't do any good if your attitude and discipline stink.

[PhantomOnTour]

I don't call it the zone...i call it "having one of those days"...where it all goes right.
Happens about 4-5 times a year and i can never see it coming. Sometimes I've done exhaustive study and preparation and other days I've looked over the races for 20mins, and i just can't miss.

[Greyfox]

Yes, it can be taught/learned but most don't have the discipline and intestinal fortitude to attain a high level of it. All the best coaching in the world won't do any good if your attitude and discipline stink.


Agreed.:ThmbUp:
I've coached various sports teams on and off for many years.
Part of the difficulty that athletes encounter is what Coaches refer to as the "Comfort Zone."
The "Comfort Zone" is the level that the athlete has reached and he's comfortable with it.
For example, a golfer who normally shoots 87 finds himself on the golf course shooting the best round of his life. On the 18 th hole he suddenly realizes that he will break 80 if he pars in. But....this realization frightens him. He tightens up. Hits a bad shot, followed by another bad shot and ends up limping home with an 83. A good round for him yes. But the possibility of breaking 80 frightened him back to his "Comfort Zone."
Good coaches know that if they are going to improve their teams chances,
they also have to raise the "Comfort Zones" of their players.

Not an easy task for sure.
Self-concept and previous expectations have to be changed.
This involves getting at the root causes of "The Fear of Winning"
which is every bit as powerful, if not more so, than "The Fear of Losing."

Do "Comfort Zones" and "Fear of Winning" apply to horse players?
You betcha!
That's why if you want to be successful at this game you have to do a lot of painful personal analysis in addition to learning the fundamentals of Picking Winners.
Many players are just not interested in devoting that time and energy for that improvement. Hence, they become "Recreational Bettors" and are happy to remain that way. That's okay too. They're happy in that zone.

[WaHoo]

this is a little off topic than you guys are posting,
it's about horse racing :lol: :lol:

After 40 years of handicapping, I thought i would try
ya'lls handicapping advise so i slept on Oaklawn racing form..
wrote down the first thing when i woke up...

Swans went in first swimming with a mother elephant
Sinatra's gang were angels with power
bet a sawbuck.

here's my bets
2nd race #3 swan paradise
3rd race #2 first in
4th race #4 Joanna's rat pack
6th race #3 demure Halo
7th race #5 bet the Power
8th race #3 Tensaw
9th race #1 Mamma kimbo

[raybo]

this is a little off topic than you guys are posting,
it's about horse racing :lol: :lol:

After 40 years of handicapping, I thought i would try
ya'lls handicapping advise so i slept on Oaklawn racing form..
wrote down the first thing when i woke up...

Swans went in first swimming with a mother elephant
Sinatra's gang were angels with power
bet a sawbuck.

here's my bets
2nd race #3 swan paradise
3rd race #2 first in
4th race #4 Joanna's rat pack
6th race #3 demure Halo
7th race #5 bet the Power
8th race #3 Tensaw
9th race #1 Mamma kimbo

Let us know how that works out for you.

[iceknight]

My question to Light would be:

Why even bother with horse racing at all...if our mind can be relied upon to secure for us a $100,000,000 lotto jackpot?

Irrespective of whether I believe what Light said about Mindful Thinking..or not.. (I don't subscribe to that idea - I still handicap, I work at creating apps, i do lab research, I market - that's how I plan to make the millions) .

One still needs to get on the boat if you want to be saved by God.

Reference (ahajokes) (http://www.ahajokes.com/reg28.html)

[iceknight]

Again,you are interjecting your misunderstanding of what I am saying.

The outcome of a race is decided by a power greater than anyone. For me to challenge that power and impose my will is futile. So you can rest assured I will not be using psychokinesis or mind bending powers any time soon.

Now let me tell you what I am talking about.(you could have asked). Consider this statement scientifically proven to be true.

"When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change."

This is how those 2 people influenced the lottery. This is how you can influence the races. Again this is just a very small portion of what I am talking about.


Light.. it is not about two people who influenced anything. It is called REDBOARDING.. had they stated the amounts before they did that

and they are trying to make more or the person selling this 'concept" of conscious mindful thinking is trying to get more people into their CULT. Ok?

Of course, conscious dreaming + hard work will bring results. But just writing stuff and placing it below is the CLASSIC ENTITLEMENT behavior and it goes well with the "Abundant Universe" theory - where people just want the universe to give material things to them without working hard for it. usually beautiful women who misuse their beauty are well known for this...

The issue that people take with your criticism (baseless in many cases) is that you seem to just diss the hard work which people are putting and just dismiss it in one stroke. Does it make you happy? Then it just implies you are a sadist. Perhaps you just ought to make your 100 mill by writing numbers and quit bothering people with sadistic criticism

I will give you credit for one thing though, you explanations second time around are more relevant about the focus which people should get in their minds and that is a useful piece of advice in the general scheme.

[Light]

iceknight

I never revealed the "secret". Talking about the lottery winners with papers under their pillows was an introduction. Saying ""When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change" was an introduction.

If someone else said what I did, I would be curious and encouraged them to speak to hear what they have to say. Instead people here acted as if I was Frankenstein and they were the village idiots with their pitchforks and knives.Everyone assumed what I was saying or interjected their "fantasy" of what I was saying. I never got to say what I wanted to say.

I have experienced what I am talking about. But it is clear this miniscule audience is too immature to listen to anyone or anything beyond their concept of what is real.

[thaskalos]

iceknight

I never revealed the "secret". Talking about the lottery winners with papers under their pillows was an introduction. Saying ""When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change" was an introduction.

If someone else said what I did, I would be curious and encouraged them to speak to hear what they have to say. Instead people here acted as if I was Frankenstein and they were the village idiots with their pitchforks and knives.Everyone assumed what I was saying or interjected their "fantasy" of what I was saying. I never got to say what I wanted to say.

I have experienced what I am talking about. But it is clear this miniscule audience is too immature to listen to anyone or anything beyond their concept of what is real.
I'll make a deal with you...

Let us resume our gambling-related conversation in this thread, and I promise to start another thread -- titled "Quantum Physics...and other enlightening topics" -- where you can expand on the thoughts you have expressed here.

[raybo]

iceknight

I never revealed the "secret". Talking about the lottery winners with papers under their pillows was an introduction. Saying ""When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change" was an introduction.

If someone else said what I did, I would be curious and encouraged them to speak to hear what they have to say. Instead people here acted as if I was Frankenstein and they were the village idiots with their pitchforks and knives.Everyone assumed what I was saying or interjected their "fantasy" of what I was saying. I never got to say what I wanted to say.

I have experienced what I am talking about. But it is clear this miniscule audience is too immature to listen to anyone or anything beyond their concept of what is real.

Well, if this audience is too "miniscule" and too "immature" why do you bother, with all your superior intellect and your supernatural talents?

It's fairly obvious that you're wasting your time and energy with us so why not seek out a more intellectual audience, one that has the mental ability to recognize your greatness?

[duncan04]

iceknight


I have experienced what I am talking about. But it is clear this miniscule audience is too immature to listen to anyone or anything beyond their concept of what is real.

Or maybe everyone can see thru the bullshit and are tired of your "act"

[Light]

I do not plan to continue.

[iceknight]

iceknight

I never revealed the "secret". Talking about the lottery winners with papers under their pillows was an introduction. Saying ""When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change" was an introduction.

If someone else said what I did, I would be curious and encouraged them to speak to hear what they have to say. Instead people here acted as if I was Frankenstein and they were the village idiots with their pitchforks and knives.Everyone assumed what I was saying or interjected their "fantasy" of what I was saying. I never got to say what I wanted to say.

I have experienced what I am talking about. But it is clear this miniscule audience is too immature to listen to anyone or anything beyond their concept of what is real.


I think you are not getting it. That discussion is more about betting philosophy (or knowing when to bet etc). I am not sure how it fits under "Handicapper's Corner" - which is mostly about eliminating/selecting contenders. As Craigslist Flaggers would say: Your suggestion was "miscategorized". One gets the same response with many people when they go and knock on others' doors asking if they have experienced [Insert appropriate proselytizing God's name].

By the way, if you call others names such as "immature" etc, it just shows your snobbishness. The truly enlightened man does not throw names at others, even when he is verbally attacked.

[iceknight]

So... getting back to the discussion:
I am hoping to figure out a solid way to handicap 2 turn races with fields of more than 6 horses. What would be the top 3 factors I should look for in the horses past performance?

What would be the top two factors I should look at surface/raceday weather parameters?

--
And these questions can be moved to another forum if seen fit...just message me about that so I can know where to look, thanks. :)

[Light]

iceknight

I never said what I was talking about was independent of handicapping. All the "immature" ones here did.

Do not respond to me anymore. The rabble are getting restless.

[Greyfox]

So... getting back to the discussion:
I am hoping to figure out a solid way to handicap 2 turn races with fields of more than 6 horses. What would be the top 3 factors I should look for in the horses past performance?

:)

1. Who will set today's pace (and can any of the pace setters sustain a strong effort to the wire or will they be pressed hard and quit)?
2. Who can overcome today's pace?
3. Who can overcome today's pace at the class level of the group?

[iceknight]

Thanks, I will work on that and test it for a sample!!

[Striker]

So... getting back to the discussion:
I am hoping to figure out a solid way to handicap 2 turn races with fields of more than 6 horses. What would be the top 3 factors I should look for in the horses past performance?

What would be the top two factors I should look at surface/raceday weather parameters?

--

Other factors that I would look at, especially with more than 6 horses in the field, are changes in post positions for the horses, and how wide the horse was into both the first turn and the 2nd turn. Most people place much more emphasis on how wide a horse is on the far turn into the stretch, whereas it is just as or more important to me with how wide the horse was during the first turn. For me this involves watching replays, and when the chart doesn't include this in the program comments it can be very valuable to a handicapper.

[rubicon55]

I'll make a deal with you...

Let us resume our gambling-related conversion in this thread, and I promise to start another thread -- titled "Quantum Physics...and other enlightening topics" -- where you can expand on the thoughts you have expressed here.

Gus, that is great, he probably would try and rewrite the laws of physics and pontificate about how he discovered how the universe really works... priceless.

[iceknight]

it is just as or more important to me with how wide the horse was during the first turn. For me this involves watching replays.
Thank you!

[windoor]

I had put a piece together on the five rules (and some commentary) I employ for my own method of playing the horses. My thought was to share, what I consider to be some good advice and some insight on how I play the game.

I even went as far to offer a guarantee of profitability to anyone who followed the instructions to the letter. A small joke here.

Then, after reading it, it occurred to me, this is not the place to post such a thing.

I'll save it for another time and another thread.

This is Thaskalos handicapping corner, and though he made a gracious offer to hear the opinions of others, I think most of us were more interested in what HE has to say about the handicapping process, I know I am. Questions? Yes. My way is better because..... NO.

I personally would like to hear his views on the handicapping process as it pertains to speed, pace, (pace line selection) class, current form, form cycles and race shape, and whatever else he thinks is important to the process. Especially as it applies to the exotics.

Also the "types" of races he believes will yield the best results. I have some very strong opinions here also, but this is not the thread to argue the reasons. I was hoping this would be a thread to learn if you can. I would prefer to do so, and keep my "opinions" to myself here.

He offered to share some of his insights and experience. Maybe we should pay attention?

So in that vein. Can we please get back on topic and move forward?

Regards,


Windoor

[Greyfox]

So in that vein. Can we please get back on topic and move forward?

Regards,


Windoor

Excuse me windoor,

Iceknight - just a few posts back asked us to provide 3 top factors that one should look for in past performances. Two posts have responded to that since.
Would you care to explain to us:
1. How Iceknight's question was off topic?

2. How my reply and Striker's was off topic?

If those aren't topics for a "Handicapper's Cafe" what are?

[thaskalos]

I had put a piece together on the five rules (and some commentary) I employ for my own method of playing the horses. My thought was to share, what I consider to be some good advice and some insight on how I play the game.

I even went as far to offer a guarantee of profitability to anyone who followed the instructions to the letter. A small joke here.

Then, after reading it, it occurred to me, this is not the place to post such a thing.

I'll save it for another time and another thread.

This is Thaskalos handicapping corner, and though he made a gracious offer to hear the opinions of others, I think most of us were more interested in what HE has to say about the handicapping process, I know I am. Questions? Yes. My way is better because..... NO.

I personally would like to hear his views on the handicapping process as it pertains to speed, pace, (pace line selection) class, current form, form cycles and race shape, and whatever else he thinks is important to the process. Especially as it applies to the exotics.

Also the "types" of races he believes will yield the best results. I have some very strong opinions here also, but this is not the thread to argue the reasons. I was hoping this would be a thread to learn if you can. I would prefer to do so, and keep my "opinions" to myself here.

He offered to share some of his insights and experience. Maybe we should pay attention?

So in that vein. Can we please get back on topic and move forward?

Regards,


Windoor

In the next few days, I will introduce three more threads titled "Pace", "Money Management", and "Handicapping: Theory and Practice"...in which I will thoroughly explain my handicapping process, and also handicap entire cards that I intend to bet with real money.

In the meantime, I introduced this particular thread because I wanted us to create a handicapper's gathering place here...where all of us could exchange ideas, ask questions...and present our own individual handicapping and betting points of view.

I would like to emphasize that NOTHING is off-limits in this thread...provided it deals with handicapping and betting.

I would LOVE to see your rules and commentary posted here, Windoor...and I would also like to see others contribute their own thoughts on the game as well.

I never intended this project to be a monologue; all contributions are not only welcomed...they are greatly encouraged.

Not only are you guys not distracting me by offering your own approaches to the game...you are being a great help to me -- because you are providing interesting subject matter here, while I catch up with my other responsibilities.

There is more than enough room in this forum for me to present my views on this game; I started this thread for ALL of us.

[turninforhome10]

1) Look at overnights,scanning for interesting extras
2) Extras with interest spur anchors for pick 3
3) Examine fixed data- Weight, jock switch, condition eligibility etc.
4) Filter variable data based on preferred filters
5) Predict pace using velocity ratings and impact values
6) Review video
7) Predict oddsline
8) Wait for price
9) Wager based on pools looking for value and insurance plays
10) Make trip notes after race.

[windoor]

I apparently miss-understood the nature of this section of Pace advantage.

We have a "General Handicapping Discussion" section, were anyone can post their views.

I thought Handicapper's corner was going to be about obtaining knowledge that "you can't possibly get in a book" from a master handicapper.

My apologies.


Windoor

[Greyfox]

1) Look at overnights,scanning for interesting extras
2) Extras with interest spur anchors for pick 3
.

Hi turninforhome10.

Maybe I'm a little thick this morning, but I'm not sure what you are referring to by the term "interesting extras." :confused:

That wouldn't be the same as "Also Eligibles" or "Extra weights" is it??

Greyfox

[raybo]

I apparently miss-understood the nature of this section of Pace advantage.

We have a "General Handicapping Discussion" section, were anyone can post their views.

I thought Handicapper's corner was going to be about obtaining knowledge that "you can't possibly get in a book" from a master handicapper.

My apologies.


Windoor

From Thaskalos' post the highlighted portion is the important part:

I would like to emphasize that NOTHING is off-limits in this thread...provided it deals with handicapping and betting.

Writing down numbers and sticking them under your pillow, etc., is not "handicapping".

[CincyHorseplayer]

This thread got into a nice flow with internal workings of a player discussion.Don't let these few floating turds to stink up the joint.They are always going to be there and it's a good thing,we all need somebody to abuse profusely;)

[WaHoo]

From Thaskalos' post the highlighted portion is the important part:



Writing down numbers and sticking them under your pillow, etc., is not "handicapping".

Raybo i hope you didn't think i was serious about putting the racing form
under my pillow. :lol: :lol:

there's been over 8000 views , i think most are looking at ways to improve
their handicapping and making the right wager.

I've learnt alot from Boxcar on Taulbot angles, not many produce winners,
but you can eliminate some horses with certain angles. There was quite
a few people ran data base checks on angles and said they weren't profitable,
showed negative returns..
I thought those angles i would use to eliminate out of the win.

one of the best Angles i use is the up close angle,
a horse Not have a win in last two races , i prefer using the last race, but
sometimes use second race back.
cannot run any closer than 2 1/2 lenghts of the leader and not futher back
than 4 1/2 lengths and finish 3rd or 4th and (5th if trouble is shown)
last three running positions and odds 9:1 or higher,

example last race at OPX thursday 8 horse went off at 11:1

I didn't bet the horse to win, but keyed in Superfecta

PS- you won't hit many, But the ones you do makes up for it

[johnhannibalsmith]

Hi turninforhome10.

Maybe I'm a little thick this morning, but I'm not sure what you are referring to by the term "interesting extras." :confused:

That wouldn't be the same as "Also Eligibles" or "Extra weights" is it??

Greyfox

I believe he is referring to extra races on the overnight (those supplementing the condition book) that appear to be written for a specific horse or two. In other words, the race was probably requested by someone in particular and if it fills, the person and horse that meets that criteria will become apparent and becomes a possible anchor single in a multi-race bet.

[windoor]

From Thaskalos' post the highlighted portion is the important part:



Writing down numbers and sticking them under your pillow, etc., is not "handicapping".

I did not see that, and I thought I read every post thoroughly.
More apologies.

But: (You did know this was coming, right?)

If everyone is encouraged to offer up their "opinion" of what works best, I think it is most likely going to end with arguments, as each tries to defend their positions when others disagree. I don't think I will learn anything from that. Maybe I will be proven wrong.

If you have a "teacher", who is willing to share his way of doing things, then questions should be encouraged. If you disagree, that is fine. I for one will not argue with someone that is trying to help me. At least not until I have heard all he has to say.

I have many opinions of what works best for me, and am not shy about posting them. They are scattered through out the site. I was ready to post another here, but thought better of it. For here, I will sit back and listen (or read). Ask questions when called for, and try to learn something.

If I see a thread started with the title: "What do you consider to be the most important rules to follow to be successful?" I will post what I have written up. Maybe someone will find value in it.

In my view, it did not seem appropriate to post it here.

Regards,

Windoor

[Greyfox]

I believe he is referring to extra races on the overnight (those supplementing the condition book) that appear to be written for a specific horse or two. In other words, the race was probably requested by someone in particular and if it fills, the person and horse that meets that criteria will become apparent and becomes a possible anchor single in a multi-race bet.

Thankyou.
Steven Davidowitz mentioned that angle once upon a time.
I've never had a condition book for any of the tracks to even a give it any thought. I just get what the DRF gives me the evening before a card.

[Dave Schwartz]

If I may humbly suggest:

This thread is supposed to be about getting words of wisdom from Thaskalos. Yet, it seems that for every post he makes there are 5-10 (or more) others clouding the issue.

I would like to suggest that Thaskalos once again start a new thread, but this time, posting is closed (except for him) until he is done with what he has to say in THAT thread.

Then he can open the thread to comments on that particular section. They could simply be labeled "Lesson 1, Lesson 2, etc."


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[turninforhome10]

Hi turninforhome10.

Maybe I'm a little thick this morning, but I'm not sure what you are referring to by the term "interesting extras." :confused:

That wouldn't be the same as "Also Eligibles" or "Extra weights" is it??

Greyfox
I look for extras that might be what I call a "hustled race". A race that looks to be set up for a trainer by a jock agent coup in the racing office. Look at OP 2nd race today 4/13. 2nd Race. (CX1)Post 1:59PM CX1 means Condition Book extra. These races appear on the overnight rather than the condition book
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONDC-OP-20120413D.
All the other races on the card go with 12 and 3excluded except for the 2nd which goes with 8 and a Midwest entry. Would look for an anchor for a pick 3 in the the race.

[turninforhome10]

If I may humbly suggest:

This thread is supposed to be about getting words of wisdom from Thaskalos. Yet, it seems that for every post he makes there are 5-10 (or more) others clouding the issue.

I would like to suggest that Thaskalos once again start a new thread, but this time, posting is closed (except for him) until he is done with what he has to say in THAT thread.

Then he can open the thread to comments on that particular section. They could simply be labeled "Lesson 1, Lesson 2, etc."


Regards,
Dave Schwartz


Is this the cafe? Did THask not say this is what the thread was for? If I am wrong I apologize in advance.

[Dave Schwartz]

Perhaps I have posted this in the wrong thread. I really was making a general suggestion for a plan of attack.

Did not mean it as a criticism of you or anyone else in particular.

[headhawg]

If I may humbly suggest:

This thread is supposed to be about getting words of wisdom from Thaskalos. Yet, it seems that for every post he makes there are 5-10 (or more) others clouding the issue.

I would like to suggest that Thaskalos once again start a new thread, but this time, posting is closed (except for him) until he is done with what he has to say in THAT thread.

Then he can open the thread to comments on that particular section. They could simply be labeled "Lesson 1, Lesson 2, etc."I mentioned doing it this way in the initial thread as, being a long-time member here, I anticipated that this was going to happen. (Although I started sleeping with Bar Refaeli and Esti Ginzburg pictures under my pillow, hoping for the best. :rolleyes: ) It's not that I object to most of the posts but the Handicapper's Corner idea was supposed to be different from the regular Handicapping section. So far the "feel" of the thaskalos threads is very much the same as the regular ones.

[thaskalos]

I apparently miss-understood the nature of this section of Pace advantage.

We have a "General Handicapping Discussion" section, were anyone can post their views.

I thought Handicapper's corner was going to be about obtaining knowledge that "you can't possibly get in a book" from a master handicapper.

My apologies.


Windoor
Perhaps you didn't misunderstand...and the fault is mine. It could be that I failed to make my intentions perfectly clear at the outset.

Please allow me to do that now:

My intention was not to present my handicapping and betting methods in rapid-fire fashion, and then be done with it. I don't have the time for that.

I wanted the Handicapper's Corner to become a permanent fixture of Paceadvantage, for the years to come.

I envisioned an ongoing handicapping class...where the "teacher" and the "students" learned from each other...as we all embark on a voyage towards the "mastery" of this game...together.

Ours is an EVOLVING game...and the players themselves should NEVER stop learning and evolving.

I am not a "master" handicapper...but I have conducted a lot of independent research into this game...and I have developed certain original ideas. I don't think that you will find what I have to say in any book.

I have been a high-limit gambler for 30 years now...both at the betting windows and around the green baize...and have been exposed to a world that few of the typical horseplayers have ever seen. And I have rubbed shoulders with a few GENUINE gambling "masters"...from whom I have learned a lot.

I want to pass on that knowledge here.

But much of what I have found sharply contradicts what is written in most handicapping books...and it goes against most people's opinion of this game...and how to play it. So, what I write here is liable to attract some controversy, and spark a few arguments; but that's okay too, because that's how "myths" are dispelled...and we all benefit as a result.

The biggest blessing for a horseplayer, as far as I am concerned, is for him to get attracted to POKER first...so he can take some lessons from the serious players of THAT arena...

The serious poker players conduct themselves very differently than their horseplaying counterparts.

They don't overly concern themselves with WINNING...but, instead, are obsessed with learning all they can about the game that they are playing.

Even when they are AWAY from the table, they are working towards improving their game...either by reading useful books, or by thinking deeply about the decisions that they, themselves, make while playing. Their obsession is not with WINNING...but with making the right decisions.

They know full-well that, if they make the right decisions at the table, then winning will be the natural side benefit.

Compare that with the image portrayed in most handicapping books out there...

Profits in the 20-70% range are supposedly out there, waiting for the "serious hobbyist"...and all he/she has to do is pick up the Racing Form on the weekends...without disturbing the other happenings of the week.

Simplistic "angles" being employed, instead of thorough handicapping and betting knowledge, in a game which has been accurately described as the world's most difficult gambling game to beat.

And little knowledge, or none at all, about the psychological aspects of this game...in a sport which has a myriad of psychological pitfalls...all waiting for the unsuspecting player...

Windoor...I know that you are a spot player, and I don't want this to look like a personal attack on you...but, IMO...KNOWLEDGE should be the ultimate goal of the gambler -- not "easy profits" through some handicapping short-cuts. The player should endeavor to become a legitimate EXPERT...otherwise, his long-term survival as a winning player is questionable indeed.

Yes...there may be winning "spot players" out there...but spot plays don't work forever -- and don't contribute much to the player's comprehensive knowledge of this frustrating but fascinating game of ours.

What are the "true" abilities of the horses in question...how do we determine how the race will shape-up today...who figures to benefit by the "dynamics" of today's race...how do we bet, in order to get the most for our money...and how do we handle the adversity that this game brings into our lives...THESE are the questions that determine our fate at the track...and I promise to get to all of them, in due time.

There are NO SHORTCUTS in a game where you are facing a powerful opponent...

It would be analogous to us sitting down for a game of chess with Gary Kasparov...with only a few fancy opening moves in our arsenal...

This is a long-term project...and I will try my best to make it all worthwhile for those who are interested.

And, as I've said before, I welcome all opinions...even if they conflict with my own.

I know that we already have a "General Handicapping" section here...but I want to make the handicapping content of this site even stronger, and more interesting.

How can that hurt?

[windoor]

Ours is an EVOLVING game...and the players themselves should NEVER stop learning and evolving.

I agree


Simplistic "angles" being employed, instead of thorough handicapping and betting knowledge, in a game which has been accurately described as the world's most difficult gambling game to beat.

I don't know if what I do can be called "simplistic" but I assure you it works just fine. Some since 1996, and long before that, if I was just smart enough to see it.


Windoor...I know that you are a spot player, and I don't want this to look like a personal attack on you...but, IMO...KNOWLEDGE should be the ultimate goal of the gambler -- not "easy profits" through some handicapping short-cuts. The player should endeavor to become a legitimate EXPERT...otherwise, his long-term survival as a winning player is questionable indeed.

Yes...there may be winning "spot players" out there...but spot plays don't work forever -- and don't contribute much to the player's comprehensive knowledge of this frustrating but fascinating game of ours.

There are NO SHORTCUTS in a game where you are facing a powerful opponent...

From a win only perspective. Spot plays are the shortcut.



You once mentioned a player who only glances at the PP's, chooses his selections , then make his way to the windows. You also stated he was a mystery to you, but a profitable player for many years.

I might suggest he was a spot/angle player as these are easy to see when you know what to look for. Though they can be hard to find. Yes, both statements are true.

I assure you, long term profits can indeed be had here, and you do not have to be a master handicapper to play them. It really is a short cut, but does have some limitations. You also need the other four qualities to succeed long term. Five rules to become successful.

As I said in and earlier post. Mention your method of doing things, then as others disagree, you find yourself defending your method. I don't think this is what you intended with your gracious offer to let anyone post there thoughts as long as it had to do with handicapping. Though I suppose an argument can be made, that what I do is not really handicapping. I have said so myself on occasion.

That was what I was hoping to learn here. Some handicapping methods and principles that would further my knowledge of true handicapping. I know my weakness. If I am ever to play the exotics successfully, I will need to learn how to spot all of the contenders for the top four positions. Something I do quite poorly at the present time.


Regards,

Windoor.

[windoor]

What the hell.
Against my better judgment, I will post this anyway and be done with it.

From a win only perspective. No one wants my advice for playing the exotics:)
Yes, I am now a database guy and very glad I made the change, as you will see.

A condensed version of some chapters from my journal. Some paragraphs are a cut and paste and may not flow as a well written piece. My skills are very limited here anyway, and I am much too lazy to fix it. I think the message is clear enough.

There are many ways to play this game, and I would certainly not suggest mine is the only way to do it and be profitable. However, it does work very well for me, and I am reasonably sure, most successful players follow the same rules in one form or another.

I truly believe most here already have a selection method that can be made profitable, if they would only follow some simple rules. Well, simple to put into words, but can indeed be very difficult to follow for most. Giving up some long held beliefs is the hardest part.

I would offer you my views on what is needed to become profitable. I will go as far to guarantee you will be profitable if you follow every step as described. If not, the full purchase price will be refunded along with my most humblest apologies for wasting your time.

A beginning:

I would argue that the first thing you need, is to have confidence in your selection method. You have two choices. Draw from many, many years of experience or use a database and/or your record keeping (a database of a different name) if it includes the right factor set. I use both, but the use of a database has taken my game to the next level. I can now get answers to questions in minutes, when it used to take weeks or even months of work. Finding spot/angle plays has never been easier, and I thrive on those.
I am nearly at the point that I have more than I know what to do with.

My goal is to find the seven (a power number) best with the proper tweaks on a track by track basis that will keep the losing streaks to a minimum by having a couple over perform when others are lacking. Can it be done? I truly do not know, but that is my goal.

Another shameless plug for J/Capper. I'm sure there are others, but as a sponsor of this site and someone who has helped me tremendously with getting it to do what I want, I can recommend no other. A very powerful tool. A learning curve to be sure, but it didn't take me that long to get it to do what I wanted.

A shout out to Harry (H-Cap) is in order too. His expertise in designing custom Excel applications that can import and modify data files, then filter the data files as I would have them, has been invaluable to me.

For those who doubt the power of a database. Answer me this. Would you rather invest a bank on a selection method that has historically showed to be a loser over time or one that has consistently showed a profit. No, there is no guarantee that past results will continue into the future, but giving the choices above, I will take my chances on the one that has proven to be successful in the past. An easy choice I think.

Investing in a play with just a few weeks or months of data, is truly a shot in the dark. You may hit something, but the chances are small. Years and years of experience could be the exception here, but the database is in your head. Same thing.

I have five rules that if followed to the letter, I believe anyone can earn a profit at the track. Do you have what it takes? Can you find a way to exploit your strengths while managing your weaknesses? Maybe that, is the true test.


1) Selection method: A lot of things can be made to work. I prefer spot/angle plays. They can be hard to fine, but after the research is done, and you know what to look for, they are easy to see. I prefer to us a computer program that is set up to find them on a daily basis. No long hours pouring over the PP's , no mistakes, no second guessing, no doubts. A lot of players will make small changes (they add up to big changes) in their method depending on mood or current win/loss results. Having a computer program make you selections (at the very least your contenders) will avoid this pitfall.

Two choices. Plug and play or develop an iron will. We are back to managing your weaknesses. I chose plug and play. The computer program is way more consistent than I will ever be, even if it does lack intuition and a feel for the race at hand. Though these have failed me many times too.

As to where to start with the finer points of handicapping, I will leave that to the Thaskalos and the more knowledgeable members here. I knew early on that I did not have the skills or patience to learn what was needed to be truly great in this arena. I chose an easier path, but it is limited to win and place wager.

If you think you can not earn enough here, I have already posted the results of a play that totaled out to over $300K for the year at a wager of $200 to win, and that was just one. There are many and more. Yes it was historical results, but you have to start with something, and I know of no better way.


2) Divide by seven: I think the real secret has always been, not how you make your selections, (assuming some basic level of skill or a spot play) but when and where to play them. What track? Surface? Distance? Class level? Sex? Age? Time of year? "The Seven". Add in value if you must. Another very powerful tool. Use it.

3) Patience: Look up the meaning if you need to. Do not gloss over this. It is paramount to your success. A typical example would be to back a method of selection (typically with an undersized bank to boot) without doing the necessary work to validate the method. You convince yourself it will earn a nice profit and are too impatient (or too lazy?) to do the required research. No one said it would be easy.

Or maybe the plays you are looking for are too few and far between. Maybe the ones that show up do not represent the value you require. So you force some plays, just to have some action. A big no, no. Manage this weakness. I have multiple spot plays. (maybe too many) Forty-five plays the other day, and I expect this number to double when the third quarter gets here. I do not want for action.

4) Discipline: As above. They go hand in hand. We all suffer a lack of discipline from time to time. I am still a sucker for the exotics, even though I fail miserably with them. You really do need to be a very well rounded handicapper to have success here. I do not qualify, but I have found a way to manage my losses. I only allow myself a small bank each month. I challenge myself to become profitable. Maybe one day I will be. Until then, the rule is, when it's gone its gone. No more exotics till next month. I call it an entertainment expense. It's fun, and I once went three months before losing the bank. Mostly do to a $700 exacta when two long-shot spot plays ran 1,2. A very rare occurrence.

You must stay consistent and have a belief in what you are doing. It becomes easier when you method starts to bear fruit and you see a profit. Beware of overconfidence when things are going well. I think many can relate. Pride comes before a fall.

5) Survive the losing streak: I have a little more to say on this. We all have them. The actual bank draw down is more important. This is the result of a low hit rate coupled with a low average odd over an extended period of time. This has broken more banks (and confidence in one's method) then a single losing streak could ever hope to match.

I do have a forty unit rule that states," If at anytime the bank loses 40 units from a previous high, that particular play comes under high scrutiny and a review of the last forty plays is mandatory." How many mistakes were made? Run it through the "Seven" again to see if something shows up there. This may be the time for a small tweak.

If it reaches fifty units (assuming a relatively new play) it is stopped for a complete review and rewrite, or thrown out. A review might show it to be a play that is specific for a certain track or the time of year. Do your homework.

If it is a play that has shown to be successful over the years, I will let it run to 100 units. This has never happened to me, "yet". I have had a good one go to 60 something units before turning around and coming back to "normal" for no apparent reason. Go figure.

I have been playing everyday for years on end, and have experienced some pretty wild swings in win percent and average odd. Mostly the average odd. Whenever I see an increase in the win percent for a particular spot play, it is not long after, the average odd drops. I think others see what I do, but cannot survive the losing streak when they come. I think they go broke or run off to something else that has been doing well lately. When my play starts hitting again, the odds are very good indeed. I'm ok with that.

I would never recommend reducing the amount of your wager or plays for just this reason. Either play it according the rules you made or do not play at all. Nothing else will do. Was it not research properly before you began? Was the bank not strong enough to begin with? It is always a heart-breaker to have a nice odd horse win for you with a reduced wager. Or worse, maybe you cut back on your plays, and you did not play it at all. This is just not acceptable in my world.

Do your homework. Validate your method and go forward with confidence and the proper sized bank. This is really quite easy to do and costs very little in dollars, if not the amount of time it takes. Did you turn a profit last year?

I think the best way to handle losing streaks is to first, make a commitment to play for an extended period of time. I play a quarter (three months) of the year at a time. My method(s) of selecting horses are chosen, the amount of my wagers for each are written in stone. Regardless of what happens, I will be there at the end of the time period, and I have a bank ready and waiting for the next quarter. (Actually for the entire year) I don't worry over losing days or even losing weeks. I have even had my share of losing months. Painful, but survivable.

Always stick to your game plan. Changing it at the first sign of adversity is a recipe for disaster. A larger bank is needed, but is well worth it in my view. Maybe you will need to reduce the size of the wager when first starting out to make sure the bank is strong enough. Greed kills.

Whatever way you choose your selections, you must research it to see if profitable historically. I see no other way.

My current recommendation (it changes as I learn) is three years of research for every method or spot play you intend to support with real money. Do this for every track you intend to play. You might find you can only play certain methods at certain times of the year for any given track. I have. Some of my spot plays are listed by the quarter. I play one for the first quarter, then when the second quarter arrives, I switch over to one that has been "tweaked" for this time of year. This is still a relatively new approach for me and will take some time to see if it will work the way I want. I have high hopes.

It must be supported by a proper sized bank. I flat bet and have never found a better way for the way I play. It is simple, predictable, and effective. Take your largest bank draw down (not losing streaks) from your research. Double it (for each wagering method) and consider the money invested for three months.

I see spot plays (or any wagering method) like buying a stock. Research it, invest in it for three months, then read the profit/loss sheet at the end of the quarter to see if it is worth investing in again for the next three months. Maybe a tweak or two is in order. Properly verified through the database of course.

I try to think of it as someone else's money. Someone I trust and admire and would never betray. You must do exactly as the rules say you must. Win or lose. Do not betray yourself.

The last four rules are pretty much written in stone. The selection method is one that can be discussed in length. Do you want to play exotics? I do. Then you will need to be a very well rounded handicapper, with a full understanding of speed, pace, race shape, class, current form, and form cycles. I for one, would love to hear what Thasklos and others have to say on these topics.

From my perspective as a win only player. Nothing beats a good spot/angle play. Once found, (that's the hard part) very little time is needed to see them in the pp's. They can offer a good win percent, and sometimes outrageous odds. No real skill is needed to play and profit. Just follow the last four rules. That battle is with yourself.

I would hope some will find value in these words. For those that don't, remember, I have offered a money back guarantee. If by chance you find success with it. Give 10% of your profits to your favorite charity. It's good Karma and just might keep the longer losing streaks away.

Regards,

Windoor

[bob60566]

What the hell.
Against my better judgment, I will post this anyway and be done with it.

...
Regards,

Windoor

Have to respect Windoor on the above post and the time he took to put it all down for all to see and the same person as stated in previous posts coming through with selections for Mountineer so early in the meet.
Thanks

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Blenheim]

Abstract concepts and systems, Light philosophical ideas and the promise of learning from the "Masters" are fine and good but they don't get us anywhere. What is needed is some nuts and bolts handicapping - some real examples and short explanations why an idea works - and most importantly the proof. Nothing else matters but the proof.

Here is an example. At the Do past performances not at today's distance tell you anything? thread the gentleman asked, " Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more? "

I provided an example and that horse won the race and paid $ 14.20, his name is Le Bernardin. I also provided an example of how the same handicapping principle can lose, depending on other handicapping factors. Below is the post from that thread. At the bottom of the post is another example of the same principle: If a horse runs close to the pace and runs the final furlong in 24 seconds or less, the horse qualifies to stretch out in distance. After you take a look at that example, another example is provided for your review.


Originally Posted by Blenheim
A fine example is The Lumber Guy in the Wood Memorial, the pps can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm (http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm) Scroll to Pletcher, then Wood Memorial. Another example is La Bernadin, today at AQ, race six.

The Lumber Guy runs two sprints. In his first he is the early speed and gets the last fraction in 24.1; same in his second sprint, the internal fraction in 24.2 (bobbled at the start). His early speed coupled with his late drive qualifies him to stretch out in distance. Today he goes from an R 75k 7f to the G1 1M 9f Wood. Did the trainer intend for him to run in the Wood, or did his ability dictate they run him there? Always difficult to know if sprinters can get distance, so I check the Dosage to get an idea if the horse is a distance fit. The Dosage for The Lumber Guy is DI 4.78 CD 1.04, the Dosage for 9f is DI 2.87 CD 0.65. Doesn’t fit; he is a sprinter not a router.

No single handicapping factor stands alone. His early speed, late drive and Dosage must be considered along with other handicapping factors: class, condition, pace, bias, jockey, trainer and weight among many others. Gotta’ figure The Lumber Guy is in top condition showing three sharp 5f tr.t works and is gonna’ set the pace on a speed bias with a jockey hitting 19% and a trainer hitting 31% - he picks up 7 lbs. There is no doubt he has the potential to wire this field should he get an easy lead . . . which leads us to his class and how he compares to the competition. I think Robert Fisher said it best, “The Lumber Guy in a tough spot for NY bred w/ 2 lifetime starts.” He goes from a Restricted Stakes to a G1, running against one of the best horses in the country in Gemologist. Gemologist may not be as fast as The Lumber Guy, but he certainly outclasses him.

Will class trump speed or are they the same thing? Should be interesting to see how the different handicapping factors play out. That extra 7 pounds might make all the difference. If it goes like most of the other Derby preps, early speed is caught late by the class.

Should be fun to watch.

AQ race six, Le Bernardin (Bernardini / AP Indy) wins and pays $14.20.

~

The next example of this principle can be found here. http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm (http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm) Go to Winstar pps>Tiznow>Charles Hilton Memorial Stakes and take a look at Flashy Dresser. In his first he ran close to the pace and ran the final fraction in 24.1. He won the next race. I have used this handicapping principle many times and now, so can you.

Here is the next example of the same handicapping principle but at a longer distance in a race that will be run tomorrow. That race can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Go to Dale Romans>Tapitsfly>JennyWiley Stakes. Tapitsfly runs the last quarter in 22.7 seconds. Now that horse my friends is gonna be very difficult to beat. That final fraction qualifies him to stretch out to a longer distance. He should be real tough at another sixteenth of a mile.

The history of this principle goes way back to the late 1800s and can be attributed to a feller' named Colonel E. R. Bradley, "the professional gambler who had the Kentucky Derby in his hip pocket, used to make money betting on horses that had run the final quarter-mile of their latest races in in 24 seconds or better. The angle is especially useful if the horse qualifies on other counts." (Ainslie) You can read about Bradley here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_R._Bradley (http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_R._Bradley)

Maybe you've heard of this principle, maybe not, maybe it has been posted here before, maybe not - but it is widely known. Likely the experts didn't tell you because they didn't want you to know. I have no doubt that you too have an example of a handicapping principle and can post it and share it with us. Hopefully this example will be useful.

Lookin forward to the Jenny!

[bob60566]

Abstract concepts and systems, Light philosophical ideas and the promise of learning from the "Masters" are fine and good but they don't get us anywhere. What is needed is some nuts and bolts handicapping - some real examples and short explanations why an idea works - and most importantly the proof. Nothing else matters but the proof.

Here is an example. At the Do past performances not at today's distance tell you anything? thread the gentleman asked, " Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more? "

I provided an example and that horse won the race and paid $ 14.20, his name is Le Bernardin. I also provided an example of how the same handicapping principle can lose, depending on other handicapping factors. Below is the post from that thread. At the bottom of the post is another example of the same principle: If a horse runs close to the pace and runs the final furlong in 24 seconds or less, the horse qualifies to stretch out in distance. After you take a look at that example, another example is provided for your review.


AQ race six, Le Bernardin (Bernardini / AP Indy) wins and pays $14.20.

~

The next example of this principle can be found here. http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm (http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm) Go to Winstar pps>Tiznow>Charles Hilton Memorial Stakes and take a look at Flashy Dresser. In his first he ran close to the pace and ran the final fraction in 24.1. He won the next race. I have used this handicapping principle many times and now, so can you.

Here is the next example of the same handicapping principle but at a longer distance in a race that will be run tomorrow. That race can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Go to Dale Romans>Tapitsfly>JennyWiley Stakes. Tapitsfly runs the last quarter in 22.7 seconds. Now that horse my friends is gonna be very difficult to beat. That final fraction qualifies him to stretch out to a longer distance. He should be real tough at another sixteenth of a mile.

The history of this principle goes way back to the late 1800s and can be attributed to a feller' named Colonel E. R. Bradley, "the professional gambler who had the Kentucky Derby in his hip pocket, used to make money betting on horses that had run the final quarter-mile of their latest races in in 24 seconds or better. The angle is especially useful if the horse qualifies on other counts." (Ainslie) You can read about Bradley here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_R._Bradley (http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_R._Bradley)

Maybe you've heard of this principle, maybe not, maybe it has been posted here before, maybe not - but it is widely known. Likely the experts didn't tell you because they didn't want you to know. I have no doubt that you too have an example of a handicapping principle and can post it and share it with us. Hopefully this example will be useful.

Lookin forward to the Jenny!
Anybody intresting in playing this game and trying to understand the above post.
no comment

Mac:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[Blenheim]

Anybody intresting in playing this game and trying to understand the above post.
no comment

Mac:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

Maybe I can help.

Please explain what it is about my post that is difficult to understand and maybe I can better explain it. :ThmbUp:

[Grits]

Thask, please, do what Dave is suggesting here. Please, consider presenting the lesson thread as a closed thread and start a discussion thread for each lesson posted, separately, afterwards. Then make the original lesson threads sticky threads that can remain at the top of the Handicapping Cafe folder, so as to be able to quickly go over what you have posted without them being buried down the page under further discussion with other posters.

All the "I gave examples of" posts coming on the heels of everything you're trying to convey is getting difficult. Its hard to follow your posts, your experiences, your ideas, which I thought, and still hope, is the intent of the series. Like Dave, am I coming across with some organized thought here? Its late, and if I'm completely wrong, tell me to hush, I can handle it. You know I can! :lol:

If I may humbly suggest:

This thread is supposed to be about getting words of wisdom from Thaskalos. Yet, it seems that for every post he makes there are 5-10 (or more) others clouding the issue.

I would like to suggest that Thaskalos once again start a new thread, but this time, posting is closed (except for him) until he is done with what he has to say in THAT thread.

Then he can open the thread to comments on that particular section. They could simply be labeled "Lesson 1, Lesson 2, etc."


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[sammy the sage]

Thask, please, do what Dave is suggesting here. Please, consider presenting the lesson thread as a closed thread and start a discussion thread for each lesson posted, separately, afterwards. Then make the original lesson threads sticky threads that can remain at the top of the Handicapping Cafe folder, so as to be able to quickly go over what you have posted without them being buried down the page under further discussion with other posters.

All the "I gave examples of" posts coming on the heels of everything you're trying to convey is getting difficult. Its hard to follow your posts, your experiences, your ideas, which I thought, and still hope, is the intent of the series. Like Dave, am I coming across with some organized thought here? Its late, and if I'm completely wrong, tell me to hush, I can handle it. You know I can! :lol:

Well...now...some-one who wrote IT much better than I...at least Grits and Dave got it...

Bluntly...I never wanted my own thread...just DITTO what those two have stated...

[Tom]

Hi turninforhome10.

Maybe I'm a little thick this morning, but I'm not sure what you are referring to by the term "interesting extras." :confused:

That wouldn't be the same as "Also Eligibles" or "Extra weights" is it??

Greyfox

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=77781#post1011357

[Blenheim]

Abstract concepts and systems, Light philosophical ideas and the promise of learning from the "Masters" are fine and good but they don't get us anywhere. What is needed is some nuts and bolts handicapping - some real examples and short explanations why an idea works - and most importantly the proof. Nothing else matters but the proof.

Here is an example. At the Do past performances not at today's distance tell you anything? thread the gentleman asked, " Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more? "

I provided an example and that horse won the race and paid $ 14.20, his name is Le Bernardin. I also provided an example of how the same handicapping principle can lose, depending on other handicapping factors. Below is the post from that thread. At the bottom of the post is another example of the same principle: If a horse runs close to the pace and runs the final furlong in 24 seconds or less, the horse qualifies to stretch out in distance. After you take a look at that example, another example is provided for your review.


AQ race six, Le Bernardin (Bernardini / AP Indy) wins and pays $14.20.

~

The next example of this principle can be found here. http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm (http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm) Go to Winstar pps>Tiznow>Charles Hilton Memorial Stakes and take a look at Flashy Dresser. In his first he ran close to the pace and ran the final fraction in 24.1. He won the next race. I have used this handicapping principle many times and now, so can you.

Here is the next example of the same handicapping principle but at a longer distance in a race that will be run tomorrow. That race can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Go to Dale Romans>Tapitsfly>JennyWiley Stakes. Tapitsfly runs the last quarter in 22.7 seconds. Now that horse my friends is gonna be very difficult to beat. That final fraction qualifies him to stretch out to a longer distance. He should be real tough at another sixteenth of a mile.

The history of this principle goes way back to the late 1800s and can be attributed to a feller' named Colonel E. R. Bradley, "the professional gambler who had the Kentucky Derby in his hip pocket, used to make money betting on horses that had run the final quarter-mile of their latest races in in 24 seconds or better. The angle is especially useful if the horse qualifies on other counts." (Ainslie) You can read about Bradley here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_R._Bradley (http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_R._Bradley)

Maybe you've heard of this principle, maybe not, maybe it has been posted here before, maybe not - but it is widely known. Likely the experts didn't tell you because they didn't want you to know. I have no doubt that you too have an example of a handicapping principle and can post it and share it with us. Hopefully this example will be useful.

Lookin forward to the Jenny!

Take a look at Aqueduct race five number one, Not a Given. He shows early speed and runs the final fraction in 24 flat. The same principle described in the above post however he stays at the same distance.

Nuts and bolts handicappin' . . .

[raybo]

Take a look at Aqueduct race five number one, Not a Given. He shows early speed and runs the final fraction in 24 flat. The same principle described in the above post however he stays at the same distance.

Nuts and bolts handicappin' . . .

Bad example, he's not stretching out so this example doesn't meet your criteria. Try again.

[Blenheim]

Bad example, he's not stretching out so this example doesn't meet your criteria. Try again.

Thanks for the well thought out response.

I'm surprised you didn't comment on trainer intent.

Of course one can never know for certain what the trainer is thinking however, if we know the horse if fit to go long and the trainer races him short, what does that tell about the intention of the trainer? What does that tell us about the likelihood this horse will win the race? If you've got a fit horse ready to run a mile or longer and you run him three-quarters of a mile, how well do you think he will perform running the shorter distance? :lol: :bang:

IMO, most handicapping principles require some bit of flexibility depending on the conditions. I think this is a good handicapping principle demonstrating how current races at three-quarters of a mile relate to longer races. It can also be used to better understand trainer intent and the likelihood of the same horse winning at the shorter distance. I don't think it is a given, but I think Not A Given is gonna win the race and win it pretty easy.

Guess we'll see . . .

[raybo]

Thanks for the well thought out response.

I'm surprised you didn't comment on trainer intent.

Of course one can never know for certain what the trainer is thinking however, if we know the horse if fit to go long and the trainer races him short, what does that tell about the intention of the trainer? What does that tell us about the likelihood this horse will win the race? If you've got a fit horse ready to run a mile or longer and you run him three-quarters of a mile, how well do you think he will perform running the shorter distance? :lol: :bang:

IMO, most handicapping principles require some bit of flexibility depending on the conditions. I think this is a good handicapping principle demonstrating how current races at three-quarters of a mile relate to longer races. It can also be used to better understand trainer intent and the likelihood of the same horse winning at the shorter distance. I don't think it is a given, but I think Not A Given is gonna win the race and win it pretty easy.

Guess we'll see . . .

Make sure you post the results, will save me the trouble.

[windoor]

Thask, please, do what Dave is suggesting here. Please, consider presenting the lesson thread as a closed thread and start a discussion thread for each lesson posted, separately, afterwards. Then make the original lesson threads sticky threads that can remain at the top of the Handicapping Cafe folder, so as to be able to quickly go over what you have posted without them being buried down the page under further discussion with other posters.

All the "I gave examples of" posts coming on the heels of everything you're trying to convey is getting difficult. Its hard to follow your posts, your experiences, your ideas, which I thought, and still hope, is the intent of the series. Like Dave, am I coming across with some organized thought here? Its late, and if I'm completely wrong, tell me to hush, I can handle it. You know I can! :lol:


I vote for this too, and it is what I was hoping for.

As far as distracting posts go, if the amount of words count, I think I may be the worst offender. :)

I did give fair warning though.

If there were to be a thread on spot plays and how to develop them, I may be able to contribute something there, but I would prefer to be the student.

Regards,

Windoor

[Tom]

Thask, count me in.....your stuff is getting buried.

[Light]

Let me clarify it for you. Thask has replied several times to this point. I am taking pity on the man. Except for me, ALL are welcome to present their points of view. This is the "Cafe". You have your Latte,relax and chat.

He already has 2 separate threads for specific topics that he lectures on. He plans to introduce 3 more new threads for 3 new topics soon.

If you want to ask him about specific topics already posted,ask them in that thread.

If you want to chat in general,this is the place to do it.That's why its called the "Cafe".

[Robert Goren]

There is problem with betting horse who ran the last quarter in 24 seconds or less. How do you know they did it? Unless the horse was on top at with a quarter to go, you have use beaten lengths. They are notoriously inaccurate. Then there is whole thing about how much length is worth in time? This maybe a valid idea, but the lack of reliable information at this time means you are hoping against hope you actually have such a horse. Maybe at some future date, racing will get its act together and we will be able bet a horse like this, knowing it actually did run the last quarter in 24 seconds.

[bob60566]

There is problem with betting horse who ran the last quarter in 24 seconds or less. How do you know they did it? Unless the horse was on top at with a quarter to go, you have use beaten lengths. They are notoriously inaccurate. Then there is whole thing about how much length is worth in time? This maybe a valid idea, but the lack of reliable information at this time means you are hoping against hope you actually have such a horse. Maybe at some future date, racing will get its act together and we will be able bet a horse like this, knowing it actually did run the last quarter in 24 seconds.
There is a good book on this very subject and is for turf racing
.
A simple winning winning ??? method for turf racing. By Nate Collins.

Mac:)

[Blenheim]

There is problem with betting horse who ran the last quarter in 24 seconds or less. How do you know they did it? Unless the horse was on top at with a quarter to go, you have use beaten lengths. They are notoriously inaccurate. Then there is whole thing about how much length is worth in time? This maybe a valid idea, but the lack of reliable information at this time means you are hoping against hope you actually have such a horse. Maybe at some future date, racing will get its act together and we will be able bet a horse like this, knowing it actually did run the last quarter in 24 seconds.

I can't argue with you here and I agree.

The beaten lengths are subjective - if the chart caller blinks or sneezes who knows how many lengths are lost.

Until the time all tracks install a universal reliable tracking system, I've gotta use the numbers best I can. I think what is important is not the dead on time but whether the performance meets the guidelines of the principle and the principle is coupled with other handicapping factors. What I find so compelling about this one is that it was used way back in the late 1800s. The Colonel was winning with it back then, no reason why we can't win with it today. Makes me wonder how they timed that last fraction back in the wild, wild west.

Thanks for the reply, it was useful.

[WaHoo]

I can't argue with you here and I agree.

The beaten lengths are subjective - if the chart caller blinks or sneezes who knows how many lengths are lost.

What I find so compelling about this one is that it was used way back in the late 1800s. The Colonel was winning with it back then, no reason why we can't win with it today. Makes me wonder how they timed that last fraction back in the wild, wild west.

Thanks for the reply, it was useful.

they counted the Strides a horse makes from the 1/16 pole to finish

[bob60566]

I can't argue with you here and I agree.

The beaten lengths are subjective - if the chart caller blinks or sneezes who knows how many lengths are lost.

Until the time all tracks install a universal reliable tracking system, I've gotta use the numbers best I can. I think what is important is not the dead on time but whether the performance meets the guidelines of the principle and the principle is coupled with other handicapping factors. What I find so compelling about this one is that it was used way back in the late 1800s. The Colonel was winning with it back then, no reason why we can't win with it today. Makes me wonder how they timed that last fraction back in the wild, wild west.

Thanks for the reply, it was useful.

Do i incorparate this every time as in the above post in my handicaping of last call of 24 seconds and is this in all races for me to use or just the top graded races.

[sammy the sage]

Except for me,

You've been asked SEVERAL times to PRESENT your point of view...the fact THAT you haven't BY NOW...well...sounds/reads like a spoiled child...

[Light]

How can anyone give away anything but generalities? I caught 2 bombs today. What good would it do me to tell anyone my methods except to lower my muteuls in the future.

I am waiting for Thask to reveal the details of his turn around. But so far I have not learned anything new in 10 years on this board. And I don't say that as a know it all. The only time I learn anything in this game is when I play it.

[Greyfox]

But so far I have not learned anything new in 10 years on this board..

That's sad to read.
I learn something new on this board every day - sometimes about horse racing, and often in other subjects.

[raybo]

How can anyone give away anything but generalities? I caught 2 bombs today. What good would it do me to tell anyone my methods except to lower my muteuls in the future.

I am waiting for Thask to reveal the details of his turn around. But so far I have not learned anything new in 10 years on this board. And I don't say that as a know it all. The only time I learn anything in this game is when I play it.

My Black Box catches "bombs" all the time, but I've revealed, for free, what the program uses, running styles, fully adjusted fractional velocities, pace pressure, strict playable race rules, and 3/1 minimum post time odds on all wagered selections.

Those are the factors. Do you think everyone who reads this will know the exact method? The answer is NO, and the same thing would be true if you revealed your factors.

You're just side-stepping again, by red boarding, and saying it would lower "your" mutuels.

[setup]

You've been asked SEVERAL times to PRESENT your point of view...the fact THAT you haven't BY NOW...well...sounds/reads like a spoiled child...

I'm new and have only been following for a little bit and I see all these demands for LIGHT to post some picks. But the ones doing the demanding aren't doing any posting of picks either. How about THASKALOS and RAYBO and some of the others post some picks? Don't you think that would be fair? Are they posting somewhere else?
Of course, I keep reading that the picks, along with detailed analyses are coming. I have no problem waiting. Although, why would others have a problem with LIGHT not posting picks? He's probably waiting just like I am; just like just about everyone else is. The difference is that he's not demanding that anyone post picks. It makes sense to me that he'd be skeptical since he hasn't seen anything from anyone else. Why would he offer his own? Tell you this much: I haven't read much here other than a rehasing of some pretty standard stuff; pretty puerile stuff. And, when it comes to handicapping, I've found that if you get it out of a book, it's not really worth much. Just my $.2

BTW, where are your picks?

[duncan04]

I'm new and have only been following for a little bit and I see all these demands for LIGHT to post some picks. But the ones doing the demanding aren't doing any posting of picks either. How about THASKALOS and RAYBO and some of the others post some picks? Don't you think that would be fair? Are they posting somewhere else?
Of course, I keep reading that the picks, along with detailed analyses are coming. I have no problem waiting. Although, why would others have a problem with LIGHT not posting picks? He's probably waiting just like I am; just like just about everyone else is. The difference is that he's not demanding that anyone post picks. It makes sense to me that he'd be skeptical since he hasn't seen anything from anyone else. Why would he offer his own? Tell you this much: I haven't read much here other than a rehasing of some pretty standard stuff; pretty puerile stuff. And, when it comes to handicapping, I've found that if you get it out of a book, it's not really worth much. Just my $.2

BTW, where are your picks?

Woah! Did Light get a new username? :rolleyes: :D

[Greyfox]

Tell you this much: I haven't read much here other than a rehasing of some pretty standard stuff; pretty puerile stuff. And, when it comes to handicapping, I've found that if you get it out of a book, it's not really worth much. Just my $.2

BTW, where are your picks?

1. Several of the posters here have repeatedly posted picks in the handicapping selection threads.

2. Sad that you've never found anything worth much about handicapping in books. I certainly have and I've been around the game on and off for over 50 years. (In most books, if I can garner one new idea, I consider it money well spent on the purchase.)

[bob60566]

The first time I used It was in a claiming race at a mile and a sixteenth. The horse that ran 24 or less ran close to the pace for most of the race and drew off in the stretch - won it easy. Next time it was in an allowance race, same distance, same thing in the allowance race, horse ran close to the pace and mid stretch, the other horses faded and he drew off - wasn't easy and he kinda drifted a bit, but he drew off. I used it in stakes race but it I found it was different in a stakes. All of the horses made the turn together and at the top of the stretch it was an all out mad dash for the wire! The horse that ran the 24 or less won, but just by a head. So it is different for different types of races.

Here is something else I have found. When I find the horse that has run 24 or less and I handicap the race, I have found the trainer has the horse running in soft company or against relatively cheap stock - most of them lacking early speed, except maybe one or two of em'. I believe the trainer knows his horse has an advantage so he carefully places (hides) the horse in a race where he thinks the horse can win.

Can't say that is true for a stakes runner, can't hide one of them. But, if everything else is equal and the horse qualifies on most of the other handicapping factors, I give the horse running 24 or less the edge.

Nuts and bolts handicappin' . . .

Hope that helps.

How did your selections make out today on the above post.

Mac:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[Handiman]

Setup,

You need to understand some history concerning Light. As for my case, I helped take a program that a member was trying to develop and ended up creating 'Handifast' which remains available on this site for free. During the process, Light jumped in with quite a few negative comments and was a general pain in the ass. Even before that, I ran a small test of a program idea here on PA and he didn't choose to participate.....we posted picks everyday.

As for nobody giving out winning information, if you go to the PAIHL contest section and look up today's picks made by team Gold Runners, my selections accounted for the first 3 race events today. Using Handifast my top selection won the first event and paid over $46.00. Event 2 my top selection won and paid $5.80. My third top selection lost. Not too bad. 'Handifast' is available again on this board for FREE and how the selections were made I'm more than glad to expose. The reason is, very few people will like the program and how it works and as a result will not decide to use it. My mutuels will not drop like a brick because my approach will not suit too many people.
So Light destroying his mutuels is nothing more than a Red Herring. I doubt very much that very many people would incorporate or even copy what Light has to offer.

It seems he intentionally rubs people the wrong way for no other reason than to just be a burr under member's saddles.

[so.cal.fan]

I was feeling really bummed out the other day, after a tough beat at Santa Anita.....I got home looked at my sad face in the mirror and spoke out loud:
"yours is the saddest story I've heard all week"
I laughed out loud :lol:
Take your work seriously, you bet....but not yourself.
Hey, it works.

[Light]

Handiman

The reason you or TLG or anyone is annoyed with me is because I checked the facts. The facts were that the ROI of your program was negative. If there was a "tool" aspect of it that could be made useful,that would have negated the ROI factor. But till today,there is no rhyme or reason as to how to use the program to produce a positive ROI. Certainly using its top selection is negative. I never hear anyone talking about it either as a worthy tool and you have your own forum. Also, I did leave you alone after I made my point.

[Blenheim]

How did your selections make out today on the above post.

Mac:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

How fast did Bodiemeister run the six to eight fraction in the San Felipe? :cool:

[raybo]

I'm new and have only been following for a little bit and I see all these demands for LIGHT to post some picks. But the ones doing the demanding aren't doing any posting of picks either. How about THASKALOS and RAYBO and some of the others post some picks? Don't you think that would be fair? Are they posting somewhere else?
Of course, I keep reading that the picks, along with detailed analyses are coming. I have no problem waiting. Although, why would others have a problem with LIGHT not posting picks? He's probably waiting just like I am; just like just about everyone else is. The difference is that he's not demanding that anyone post picks. It makes sense to me that he'd be skeptical since he hasn't seen anything from anyone else. Why would he offer his own? Tell you this much: I haven't read much here other than a rehasing of some pretty standard stuff; pretty puerile stuff. And, when it comes to handicapping, I've found that if you get it out of a book, it's not really worth much. Just my $.2

BTW, where are your picks?

PA, I'm not trying to drive your members to my small forum.

But if you want to see some of my picks, the forum is in my signature, and it has a "Selections" section.

Also, I have posted pre-race selections here in the past. Check it out yourself. I don't post selections often here because mine involve my program, and my forum.

[setup]

Well, I'm not going to start checking links but it appears that LIGHT needs to get into the discussion of an actual race and give his opinion -- if he hasn't already done so.

[Blenheim]

How can anyone give away anything but generalities? I caught 2 bombs today. What good would it do me to tell anyone my methods except to lower my muteuls in the future.

I am waiting for Thask to reveal the details of his turn around. But so far I have not learned anything new in 10 years on this board. And I don't say that as a know it all. The only time I learn anything in this game is when I play it.

Mr. Light,

I must commend you on your cunning ability to manipulate other people and to get them to somehow follow you wherever you might decide to lead them. I would like to ask you one question Mr. Light: Why? Das es Qua?

I don't expert to understand your purpose, but you as a professed enlightened being, you could no doubt find a more enlightening purpose, no?

Thanks

[Tom]

Well, I'm not going to start checking links but it appears that LIGHT needs to get into the discussion of an actual race and give his opinion -- if he hasn't already done so.

He does it all the time.
After the race is over.
He is so good, I bet that he is at least 50% after the fact. :D

BEFORE the race, he is ofer.

[raybo]

How fast did Bodiemeister run the six to eight fraction in the San Felipe? :cool:

Oh by the way, how did "Not A Given" do?

[Light]

I don't get this obsession with picks. In the Bluegrass today I liked the winner as my first choice. ML was attractive at 6-1,but in real life @ 3-1, I couldn't play the horse. So I went to a bomb and lost.

In a contest or posting on this board I would look good. Had the $8 winner in the BG. But in reality, I lost money on the race.


In another case I may like a 20-1 and have it run 2nd to the chalk. So in a contest or on this board as my pick,I would get no credit. But in reality I always play my bombs behind the 2 or 3 chalks as a back up in exactas and a lot of times am rooting for my horse NOT to win because I may have the exacta several times with the bomb 2nd and only $2 or $3 on the bomb to win if I thought it was more likely to run second.I may make $200 or $300 this way, but in a contest or making picks on a board,it shows a big fat zero. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Reality is what counts. I don't care if people think I'm good or bad as a handicapper. What I think of myself as a handicapper is what counts. What you pick and what you play are not always the same.The old saying about "its not whether you win or lose but how you play the game" is much more important than just sticking with your picks.

[headhawg]

You know, Light, the Internet is a wonderful thing. You can post nearly anything you want and stay (mostly) invisible. You may be the best handicapper in the world, I don't know. You offer no real proof, just a lot of boast posts. However, one thing all of us can do is look at what you write here at PA. And what it indicates to me (and anyone else with an ounce of sense) is that you may be -- no, you are -- one of the biggest asshats of the entire Interweb.

Do you have any friends? Do you speak to them with the same condescending attitude that you post with here? Are you one of those people who think that their s*** doesn't stink? Yours does alright, and with every keypress that releases more and more of your vague ramblings it also releases the foul stench that you think is the smell of superiority but is really just the rancid odor of desperation.

Give it up Light. Find someone who cares. For your own well-being.

This has been a public service message.

[duncan04]

Couldn't agree more headhawg! Light's act and redboarding are getting tiresome. And now a new face in setup is defending Light. Seems like a "setup" all right!

[PaceAdvantage]

It makes sense to me that he'd be skeptical since he hasn't seen anything from anyone else.Skeptical? About what? Nobody is asking you to believe anything you read. Nobody is trying to convince you of anything. Nobody is charging you or forcing you to read these posts.

Thaskalos never set out to PROVE anything...what he set out to do is try and help. If you don't need any help, that's fine. Nobody is asking you or forcing you to pay attention.

Some of you guys want to see this thing devolve into something it was never meant to be.

[CincyHorseplayer]

That's what the internet was made for Pace.For invisible attacks on any virtuous altruistic activity.The morons weed themselves out and we all know it.Thank the lord God invented people for us to abuse!:p

[Handiman]

Light, the ROI was not a problem with me. It was all the different things that you said that were negative that had nothing to do with ROI. The fact that the program would fall by the wayside and never be supported being one. The program has in fact been upgraded and gives users a gazillion possible combinations of factors with the ability to change and/or set the weights as they want.

Then add to that Headhawgs coding and changes to the sister version of the program.

You just don't get it I guess. You apparently have an endless capacity to absorb abuse as well as dish it out. But like has been said in the past, "There's no such thing as bad press" as it seems to relate to you, you seem to flourish when you put forth crap and drive people to respond. Negative responses seem to float yur boat from what I can tell.

So be it.
Handi:)

[Capper Al]

:bang: :cool: That's what the internet was made for Pace.For invisible attacks on any virtuous altruistic activity.The morons weed themselves out and we all know it.Thank the lord God invented people for us to abuse!:p

That's funny.

[shoelessjoe]

Quinn's book Figure Handicapping has an excellent chapter on turf racing based on final fraction.

[cj]

There is problem with betting horse who ran the last quarter in 24 seconds or less. How do you know they did it? Unless the horse was on top at with a quarter to go, you have use beaten lengths. They are notoriously inaccurate. Then there is whole thing about how much length is worth in time? This maybe a valid idea, but the lack of reliable information at this time means you are hoping against hope you actually have such a horse. Maybe at some future date, racing will get its act together and we will be able bet a horse like this, knowing it actually did run the last quarter in 24 seconds.

It really doesn't matter though. The number 24 is arbitrary anyway and he has found it works for him. As long as he is consistent in how much time a length is worth, these inaccuracies don't matter one bit. Also, most of these horses are close enough late that the lengths behind is going to be fairly close.

We all wish we had perfect timing for every horse at each point of call. Just because we don't have this doesn't mean using what we do have can't work, does it?

[Blenheim]

shoeless (there can be no other way),

I have one of his other books, The Handicapper's Condition Book, like the way he writes. He mentions the 24 or less in a couple of chapters, but does not go into it in any depth. I intend on looking for that book.

How bout' you give us a briefing on what he says in that chapter . . .

[Blenheim]

It really doesn't matter though. The number 24 is arbitrary anyway and he has found it works for him. As long as he is consistent in how much time a length is worth, these inaccuracies don't matter one bit. Also, most of these horses are close enough late that the lengths behind is going to be fairly close.

We all wish we had perfect timing for every horse at each point of call. Just because we don't have this doesn't mean using what we do have can't work, does it?

Why do you consider the number 24 as arbitrary? Hasn't that number been the standard for the industry? I use 6 lengths per second, unadjusted.

[Dahoss9698]

Last night before I went to bed I wrote on a piece of paper that I wished I could see Light actually have an opinion on a horse race, instead of the usual chickenshit jealous nonsense he posts. I put it under my pillow and slept on it.

Let's see if it worked.

Just an update....a few days later, no pre race opinions, but more redboarding.

Guess the under the pillow trick doesn't work.

[sammy the sage]

Quinn's book Figure Handicapping has an excellent chapter on turf racing based on final fraction.

All the handicapping in the world...don't help when the jocks try to read the form and do their OWN thing...

like yesterday...stolen on the FRONT end...and those BIG final fraction horses...last and next to last... :lol:

http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-daisy-devine-front-all-way-jenny-wiley

[cj]

Why do you consider the number 24 as arbitrary? Hasn't that number been the standard for the industry? I use 6 lengths per second, unadjusted.
Because you could pick any number and it might work too. It could have been 23 and 4, or 24 and 2. Any of them can be tested in a database. I don't ever believe in using raw times in any case, but that is just me.

[raybo]

Because you could pick any number and it might work too. It could have been 23 and 4, or 24 and 2. Any of them can be tested in a database. I don't ever believe in using raw times in any case, but that is just me.Agree, raw times, non-adjusted for surface speed (daily variant), and some kind of speed related beaten length multiplier, mean very little. Yes, you start with raw leader's/winners times, but that's only the beginning, at least that's what logic tells me.

The same thing could be accomplished with good pace figures.

Raw times, and any static type beaten length adjustment to them, is available to all, so even if they work they will likely be seen by the public. The same for the stock figures from the major data providers.

[thaskalos]

Why do you consider the number 24 as arbitrary? Hasn't that number been the standard for the industry? I use 6 lengths per second, unadjusted.
The 24-second last quarter theory has been around forever...but has been ignored as of late because it has been proven to be ineffective. If Col. Bradley really had success while using it, then he left out the most important details when he wrote about it.

Let me tell you why:

I know that you tried to make this theory more comprehensive than just a last quarter measure, by requiring that the horse be "close" to the pace in the early going...but that's not enough of an additive. Close to WHAT SORT of pace?

Let's take a 6 furlong sprint for simplicity's sake...

If the pace to the half mile is 47 seconds...then MANY horses -- including the pace-setter -- will be able to go the last quarter in 24 seconds. They are able to do it NOT because of their talent...but because of the soft early pace.

Change the early pace to 45 seconds...and the picture changes dramatically...

Now...only the better sprinters will be able to run the last quarter in 24 seconds -- and all the front-runners in the race will fail to do so...not because they are inferior to the late-flying stretch runners...but because they already expended their energy reserves in the early going of that race.

"Close up to the early pace" doesn't cut it...you have to be more precise than that...because how fast the horse will run in the last quarter is directly dependent on HOW FAST it was asked to run in the early stages of the race. It has little to do with how "close" it was to the pace.

In "real" pace handicapping, no one fraction can possibly stand alone...because, then, too much of the race is ignored.

You review ALL the fractions of the race...because THAT'S the only way to properly assess the value of a horse's performance.

THAT'S "nuts and bolts" handicapping...

[thaskalos]

Isn't it nice to have a place where topics like this can be discussed?

Why am I encountering such difficulties with some people here?

Don't they see that I am only trying to be of some help?

Whatever "real" knowledge I might have gathered through my many years in this game has come at an exorbitant cost to me...and I am offering it here at no cost at all...and through considerable time and effort.

Do they really think that I am on some sort of an ego trip...and am looking to establish myself as the "resident expert" here?

None of you are likely to ever find out who I really am...

I have suffered greatly in this game...because the important stuff that a winning player needs to know are not written in any book.

I want to talk about some of this here...hoping to make the journey of others a little less painful than mine has been...

That's all...