Baseball betting : Anyone wager on Baseball ?

[BeatTheChalk]

My friend says that there is a system : If a Team is SHUTOUT in its Last
game.. Bet against that team in its next game. Then if it does not lose ..
bet against that team again and so forth. Who knows. Call me crazy ...
but blame it on my pal .. Dan ... :cool:
Beat The Chalk

[lamboguy]

My friend clamis that there is a system : If a Team is SHUTOUT in its Last
game.. Bet against that team in its next game. Then if it does not lose ..
bet against that team again and so forth. Who knows. Call me crazy ...
but blame it on my pal .. Dan ...
Beat The Chalk
it makes sense since bad hitting on a team is very contagious, and thats how teams go on big losing streaks.

[cj's dad]

it makes sense since bad hitting on a team is very contagious, and thats how teams go on big losing streaks.

You just had to bring up the O's !!

[horses4courses]

Started getting grey hairs in my 30s.....so I quit :)
Seriously, though, it is a real grind for little return (if any).

The biggest factor in determining the outcome in a baseball game is the starting pitchers. Betting lines are based, largely, on this matchup.
Other factors enter into the equation, but starting pitchers are key.

A few pointers that I have picked up over the years in Nevada sportsbooks on betting baseball are these:
(1) Concentrate on finding value. Don't jump on big favorites like all the other bettors. Try to find live underdogs at even money, or higher.
Be patient.
(2) Throughout the season, track lesser known starting pitchers who are on an upswing in their form. They could be rookies, or journey men - that doesn't matter. They just have to be on the improve, and you need to spot it before the public and line makers do.
This usually means two, or more, good outings where people might not have expected it.
(3) Bet against big name pitchers who are not at their best. The line often is skewed towards "marquee" pitchers. They can have slumps over a number of games, from time to time. Sometimes they could be trying to hide an injury, and just cannot perform like they used to.
Recognize a decline in form on a famous pitcher, and you can profit at the windows.
(4) If you bet run-lines (-1.5 runs for better odds) never do it on a home team. If you like a pitcher who is favorite on the road, and the odds are decent, lay the -1.5 runs for the bigger payoff. Home field advantage in baseball is crucial in close games in the late innings. However, the best pitchers can win on the road, and often by big margins.

Your friend is correct in the assumption that baseball is a streaky sport.
More so than most other sports. However, teams can break out of hitting slumps real fast against the right pitching.
Tread carefully, and good luck!

[melman]

horses4courses--I really agree with your point number 3. Last year for a long time Ubaldo Jimenez was still a highly rated guy by the line. Took a while for them to catch on. Seems like to me a least that they do a better job of jumping on the young hot pitcher. One guy I will be watching is Jaime Moyer of the Rockies. He make the starting rotation. Made it on merit with a great spring training. All that at the age of 49. Yes that's right 49. :) When Moyer was in Philly the linemaker never gave him much credit. I guess it's because Moyer is a slop or junk ball pitcher. A guy where location is everything. Hard not to root for him as he is also one heck of a nice guy.

[lamboguy]

when i used to bet baseball, i never cared who pitched, i just wanted to know who the umpire was. it was only good for the first game of a homestand.

i did great with it until they started putting the umpires on the wires first thing in the morning along with the pitching matchups. today everyone knows who the umpires are going to be.

[Bettowin]

I love betting the baseball over unders. Did real well last year and hit many overs when teams were coming off a grueling series and depleted the bullpen. The main thing I did was follow 6-8 teams closely and they seem to get into a scoring rythmn or drought and bet accordingly. Followed the Royals because of the proximity and coverage in my area and when there is a strong wind out of the south the scores were also higher. Speaking of the Royals they should score a lot runs but their pitching will again be suspect:)


PS - I agree about following the umpires. I had a website that tracked scoring based on the home plat umpire and it helped. Will have to look for it.

[horses4courses]

when i used to bet baseball, i never cared who pitched, i just wanted to know who the umpire was. it was only good for the first game of a homestand.

i did great with it until they started putting the umpires on the wires first thing in the morning along with the pitching matchups. today everyone knows who the umpires are going to be.

Home plate umpires are crucial for over/unders.
A number of them have strong trends one way or the other, indicating a large, or small, strike zone.
Lifetime stats are available on umps in relation to ov/un totals.
Oddsmakers, at least years ago when I was involved, pay no attention to umpires when it comes to setting a total. It can give a bettor an edge.

Here's a link to umpire stats for the past 5 seasons:
http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/nnweb/scores/header_umpire.htm

Here's a few to keep in mind:

Sam Holbrook over (55%+) four out of past five seasons

Greg Gibson under (70%+) past two seasons - maybe he likes shorter work days now?

Brian Runge under (60%+) the past 4 seasons

Larry Vanover over (60%+) four out of five past seasons

Tim Welke over (60%+) last 5 seasons


Good luck!

[horses4courses]

horses4courses--I really agree with your point number 3. Last year for a long time Ubaldo Jimenez was still a highly rated guy by the line. Took a while for them to catch on. Seems like to me a least that they do a better job of jumping on the young hot pitcher. One guy I will be watching is Jaime Moyer of the Rockies. He make the starting rotation. Made it on merit with a great spring training. All that at the age of 49. Yes that's right 49. :) When Moyer was in Philly the linemaker never gave him much credit. I guess it's because Moyer is a slop or junk ball pitcher. A guy where location is everything. Hard not to root for him as he is also one heck of a nice guy.

I remember driving up to Candlestick in '89 to watch the Giants play the Cubs in an afternoon game.
Big Daddy Reuschel pitched for the Giants, and a reasonably young Jamie Moyer for the Cubs.
Sat behind home plate, and a pitchers' duel ensued.
Game was over in close to 2 hours, 1-0 Giants. Great exhibition of pitching.

[Robert Fischer]

Nice post , also Lambo mentioned umpires.

There is certainly an important dynamic between: the umpires, the patience of the hitters, and the control of the pitchers.

Extreme examples are Bonds, Ruth, and Williams who only swing at what they like or Maybe a Greg Maddux who makes the hitters hit his choice.

This dynamic plays a part in a lot of games.


Home plate umpires are crucial for over/unders.
A number of them have strong trends one way or the other, indicating a large, or small, strike zone.
Lifetime stats are available on umps in relation to ov/un totals.
Oddsmakers, at least years ago when I was involved, pay no attention to umpires when it comes to setting a total. It can give a bettor an edge.

Here's a link to umpire stats for the past 5 seasons:
http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/nnweb/scores/header_umpire.htm

Here's a few to keep in mind:

Sam Holbrook over (55%+) four out of past five seasons

Greg Gibson under (70%+) past two seasons - maybe he likes shorter work days now?

Brian Runge under (60%+) the past 4 seasons

Larry Vanover over (60%+) four out of five past seasons

Tim Welke over (60%+) last 5 seasons


Good luck!

[lamboguy]

Home plate umpires are crucial for over/unders.
A number of them have strong trends one way or the other, indicating a large, or small, strike zone.
Lifetime stats are available on umps in relation to ov/un totals.
Oddsmakers, at least years ago when I was involved, pay no attention to umpires when it comes to setting a total. It can give a bettor an edge.

Here's a link to umpire stats for the past 5 seasons:
http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/nnweb/scores/header_umpire.htm

Here's a few to keep in mind:

Sam Holbrook over (55%+) four out of past five seasons

Greg Gibson under (70%+) past two seasons - maybe he likes shorter work days now?

Brian Runge under (60%+) the past 4 seasons

Larry Vanover over (60%+) four out of five past seasons

Tim Welke over (60%+) last 5 seasons


Good luck!when i was betting baseball in the 70's they didn't have totals back then. when an umpire had a wide strike zone, we bet the underdog. lots of times we were getting close to 2-1 on those propositions. if we wound up on a hometown dog we would send it in.

today the pitchers hardly ever go more than 6 innings, so betting on the side would be impossible, but the totals would be big.

[Valuist]

horses4courses--I really agree with your point number 3. Last year for a long time Ubaldo Jimenez was still a highly rated guy by the line. Took a while for them to catch on. Seems like to me a least that they do a better job of jumping on the young hot pitcher. One guy I will be watching is Jaime Moyer of the Rockies. He make the starting rotation. Made it on merit with a great spring training. All that at the age of 49. Yes that's right 49. :) When Moyer was in Philly the linemaker never gave him much credit. I guess it's because Moyer is a slop or junk ball pitcher. A guy where location is everything. Hard not to root for him as he is also one heck of a nice guy.


Jimenez may still be a go against, not to mention the fact he could miss a start or two w/a suspension.

Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break in 2010. Since then, he's 14-20.

[Rookies]

Check out 'Covers' for background dope on ANYTHING related to all sports.

[thaskalos]

There was a book published in 1979 titled "Sports Betting: A Computer Expert's Winning Secrets for Betting on Baseball and Football"...written by Jim Jasper.

The football part of the book wasn't much, and it probably does not apply to today's game...but the part about baseball betting (which takes up most of the book) is downright fascinating.

A very analytical, very detailed, and well reasoned approach to baseball betting...which -- even though published 33 years ago -- easily beats any sports betting book in the market today.

The book is out of print...but makes periodic appearances at Amazon.com, in a used form.

Well worth the money, IMO.

[lamboguy]

There was a book published in 1979 titled "Sports Betting: A Computer Expert's Winning Secrets for Betting on Baseball and Football"...written by Jim Jasper.

The football part of the book wasn't much, and it probably does not apply to today's game...but the part about baseball betting (which takes up most of the book) is downright fascinating.

A very analytical, very detailed, and well reasoned approach to baseball betting...which -- even though published 33 years ago -- easily beats any sports betting book in the market today.

The book is out of print...but makes periodic appearances at Amazon.com, in a used form.

Well worth the money, IMO.i knew of a guy that used the principles from that bool and made money playing all sports. the guy was a very sharp guy and had told me about the book years ago. the fellow that i knew is no longer here, but he was a legend in his day. he was a great tournament bridge and backgammon player.

[Johnny V]

Interesting posts here. Baseball is a game of streaks and there have been many systems based on that factor over the years. I have not myself seen that much value in most of them. The line does factor that into it as well I would think. Just as in horse racing, self control and preparation are keys to success when betting baseball.
I study the lines closely and when I see a worthwhile difference between my line and the book then I bet. I have an aversion to anything much over-150 and try to stay away from those favorites. The only system that has sometimes worked well for me is betting the home dogs early in the season.
Covers is a great site for stats and another one you might try is espn.com/mlb. They have excellent stats as well. The book that Thaskalos mentioned is a good one. I had it and loaned it out years ago and never got it back. Thanks for mentioning it and reminding me of it. I just re-ordered it. By the way, if you can get a nickel line that is a great deal.

[PhantomOnTour]

The only baseball bet i would make this year is the KC Royals finishing over .500 !!!
Bank it

[Teach]

I was hungry. I could almost taste the hash browns, sausage, eggs, toast and coffee, and oh yes, some fresh-squeezed orange juice. It was then as I was walking toward the dining area that I noticed a man poring over some notes. He appeared so engrossed I had to find out what he was studying. I had spotted this middle-aged guy in the lounge just outside the buffet. As hungry as I was, I just had to stop to see what he was doing.

It was July, 1993. I was enjoying some R & R at John Ascuaga's Nugget in Reno NV, actually Sparks. Well, as I walked closer and closer to this man, I became more and more intrigued as to just what he was doing. I don't think I've ever seen anyone so transfixed unless he were studying either The Daily Racing Form, or eyeing a Playboy Centerfold. I walked up to where the man was sitting. I remember quietly approaching him just like a cat does when it's spotted a mouse. Moments later, I gently cleared my throat (as not to startle him) and then asked: "If I'm not being rude, you seem so involved in your task, what you're doing?" He then said one word: "biorhythms". "Biorythms," I repeated. "Yes," the man reiterated, "biorhythms."

It was then that our conversation took on meaning. The man went on to tell me that he uses biorhythms to bet baseball games. I frankly was taken aback. I must admit I knew little about biorhythms except for having seen them diagrammed. It reminded me of an oscilloscope. Or maybe a parabola in math class. It was now that the man went into greater detail. His thesis or theory was that pitching was 90% of the game (hadn't the Baltimore Orioles Paul Richards said that years earlier). Thus, he continued, he focuses on pitching when betting on baseball. OK, I thought, so far, so good. He then went on to tell me how he uses biorhythms. He said that he looks up the birth date of every pitcher who's pitching that day. He then proceeds (he had this booklet and a series of notes) to see what the pitchers' biorhythms chart is for that day. Well,the man then started talking about "physical days" and "emotional days"and how we go through "highs" and "lows" in our lives depending on"cycles". I remember telling the guy that "he had lost me." I then asked, "What does all this have to do with betting on baseball?"

Well, as the man continued, he repeated that he first checks out pitchers' birth dates. Based on that information, he draws up his "biorhythms charts". He said he's looking for a pitcher who is going through a "low energy" cycle. He mentioned words like stamina, lack of pep, easily fatigues, etc. He then said that based on the charts, he picks out one or two games that he believes are bettable based on the fact that the pitcher was in the midst of this "low energy" cycle. He would then bet the opposing team. He then said that he was in that process when I had spotted him. I then asked," Who do you like?" I recall he said, "It's early, but it looks like the Twins' Kevin Tapani is vulnerable today against the Orioles." He then added, "His cycle is going through a trough." With that, my hunger pangs had gotten the best of me and I left the man to continue with his biorhythms study.

As for the breakfast that morning, it was excellent. As for for how Kevin Tapani did that day against the Orioles, I couldn't tell you.

[horses4courses]

I was hungry. I could almost taste the hash browns, sausage, eggs, toast and coffee, and oh yes, some fresh-squeezed orange juice. It was then as I was walking toward the dining area that I noticed a man poring over some notes. He appeared so engrossed I had to find out what he was studying. I had spotted this middle-aged guy in the lounge just outside the buffet. As hungry as I was, I just had to stop to see what he was doing.

It was July, 1993. I was enjoying some R & R at John Ascuaga's Nugget in Reno NV, actually Sparks. Well, as I walked closer and closer to this man, I became more and more intrigued as to just what he was doing. I don't think I've ever seen anyone so transfixed unless he were studying either The Daily Racing Form, or eyeing a Playboy Centerfold. I walked up to where the man was sitting. I remember quietly approaching him just like a cat does when it's spotted a mouse. Moments later, I gently cleared my throat (as not to startle him) and then asked: "If I'm not being rude, you seem so involved in your task, what you're doing?" He then said one word: "biorhythms". "Biorythms," I repeated. "Yes," the man reiterated, "biorhythms."

It was then that our conversation took on meaning. The man went on to tell me that he uses biorhythms to bet baseball games. I frankly was taken aback. I must admit I knew little about biorhythms except for having seen them diagrammed. It reminded me of an oscilloscope. Or maybe a parabola in math class. It was now that the man went into greater detail. His thesis or theory was that pitching was 90% of the game (hadn't the Baltimore Orioles Paul Richards said that years earlier). Thus, he continued, he focuses on pitching when betting on baseball. OK, I thought, so far, so good. He then went on to tell me how he uses biorhythms. He said that he looks up the birth date of every pitcher who's pitching that day. He then proceeds (he had this booklet and a series of notes) to see what the pitchers' biorhythms chart is for that day. Well,the man then started talking about "physical days" and "emotional days"and how we go through "highs" and "lows" in our lives depending on"cycles". I remember telling the guy that "he had lost me." I then asked, "What does all this have to do with betting on baseball?"

Well, as the man continued, he repeated that he first checks out pitchers' birth dates. Based on that information, he draws up his "biorhythms charts". He said he's looking for a pitcher who is going through a "low energy" cycle. He mentioned words like stamina, lack of pep, easily fatigues, etc. He then said that based on the charts, he picks out one or two games that he believes are bettable based on the fact that the pitcher was in the midst of this "low energy" cycle. He would then bet the opposing team. He then said that he was in that process when I had spotted him. I then asked," Who do you like?" I recall he said, "It's early, but it looks like the Twins' Kevin Tapani is vulnerable today against the Orioles." He then added, "His cycle is going through a trough." With that, my hunger pangs had gotten the best of me and I left the man to continue with his biorhythms study.

As for the breakfast that morning, it was excellent. As for for how Kevin Tapani did that day against the Orioles, I couldn't tell you.



I'm thinking we took this guy's action for years up at the Lake.
Wound up tapioca, and talking to himself a lot.
I wasn't listening, but it may have been about biorhythms..... :lol:

I've always liked the Nugget, though ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

There was a book published in 1979 titled "Sports Betting: A Computer Expert's Winning Secrets for Betting on Baseball and Football"...written by Jim Jasper.

The football part of the book wasn't much, and it probably does not apply to today's game...but the part about baseball betting (which takes up most of the book) is downright fascinating.

A very analytical, very detailed, and well reasoned approach to baseball betting...which -- even though published 33 years ago -- easily beats any sports betting book in the market today.

The book is out of print...but makes periodic appearances at Amazon.com, in a used form.

Well worth the money, IMO.I LOVED Jasper's "More BASIC Betting," the one where he offered up the horse racing program, whose odds line was based on projected beaten lengths.

That book inspired me in more ways than one could imagine, and I still look at it fondly today. I've talked about Jasper once or twice on here in the past...

[pandy]

I bet baseball one summer and betting two and three game $25 to $50 parlays, mostly games that looked like locks, I ran $100 into $2400.00. Then I raised my base bet to $100 and lost (naturally) $900 quickly and cashed out with a $1500 profit. But it was fun and for a while I was hitting 90% of my parlays until I raised my bet.

The problem with betting something besides horses is time. This year I followed the NFL closely and did well on spot bets, but it took several hours a week of analyzing the match ups. With baseball games every day, it would take too much time out of my day.

The main reason why most people lose betting sports is that they don't spend enough time studying. They look at a game and make a knee jerk decision, "Oh, the Mets should lose today, they never play well on the west coast..."

[Robert Fischer]

I was hungry. I could almost taste the hash browns, sausage, eggs, toast and coffee, and oh yes, some fresh-squeezed orange juice. It was then as I was walking toward the dining area that I noticed a man poring over some notes. He appeared so engrossed I had to find out what he was studying. I had spotted this middle-aged guy in the lounge just outside the buffet. As hungry as I was, I just had to stop to see what he was doing.

It was July, 1993. I was enjoying some R & R at John Ascuaga's Nugget in Reno NV, actually Sparks. Well, as I walked closer and closer to this man, I became more and more intrigued as to just what he was doing. I don't think I've ever seen anyone so transfixed unless he were studying either The Daily Racing Form, or eyeing a Playboy Centerfold. I walked up to where the man was sitting. I remember quietly approaching him just like a cat does when it's spotted a mouse. Moments later, I gently cleared my throat (as not to startle him) and then asked: "If I'm not being rude, you seem so involved in your task, what you're doing?" He then said one word: "biorhythms". "Biorythms," I repeated. "Yes," the man reiterated, "biorhythms."

It was then that our conversation took on meaning. The man went on to tell me that he uses biorhythms to bet baseball games. I frankly was taken aback. I must admit I knew little about biorhythms except for having seen them diagrammed. It reminded me of an oscilloscope. Or maybe a parabola in math class. It was now that the man went into greater detail. His thesis or theory was that pitching was 90% of the game (hadn't the Baltimore Orioles Paul Richards said that years earlier). Thus, he continued, he focuses on pitching when betting on baseball. OK, I thought, so far, so good. He then went on to tell me how he uses biorhythms. He said that he looks up the birth date of every pitcher who's pitching that day. He then proceeds (he had this booklet and a series of notes) to see what the pitchers' biorhythms chart is for that day. Well,the man then started talking about "physical days" and "emotional days"and how we go through "highs" and "lows" in our lives depending on"cycles". I remember telling the guy that "he had lost me." I then asked, "What does all this have to do with betting on baseball?"

Well, as the man continued, he repeated that he first checks out pitchers' birth dates. Based on that information, he draws up his "biorhythms charts". He said he's looking for a pitcher who is going through a "low energy" cycle. He mentioned words like stamina, lack of pep, easily fatigues, etc. He then said that based on the charts, he picks out one or two games that he believes are bettable based on the fact that the pitcher was in the midst of this "low energy" cycle. He would then bet the opposing team. He then said that he was in that process when I had spotted him. I then asked," Who do you like?" I recall he said, "It's early, but it looks like the Twins' Kevin Tapani is vulnerable today against the Orioles." He then added, "His cycle is going through a trough." With that, my hunger pangs had gotten the best of me and I left the man to continue with his biorhythms study.

As for the breakfast that morning, it was excellent. As for for how Kevin Tapani did that day against the Orioles, I couldn't tell you.


Good Stuff. :ThmbUp:

[pandy]

I interviewed a woman once who wrote a book on using the drivers biorhythms to handicap harness racing. I actually think I still have the book in my archives.

[Johnny V]

I knew a guy once that said he used biorhthyms to bet boxing matches. I don't know how he made out. If it had any merit I would think it might work in a sport like that rather than a team sport like baseball.

[turninforhome10]

What are the odds on the Orioles finishing above 500 after today?
http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/msn/the_baltimore_orioles_loseto_a_community_college_t eam/10481716

[Johnny V]

What are the odds on the Orioles finishing above 500 after today?
http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/msn/the_baltimore_orioles_loseto_a_community_college_t eam/10481716
Not very good. The line is over 69.5 +110 the under −130. Unfortunately it looks like the Orioles have a long way to go to get to a .500 season.

[Valuist]

Under players and run line dog players are getting the best of it today. Check out these scores of the first 4 games: 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2.

[Bettowin]

Everybody is throwing their ace. Wait until next week for the overs:)

[Bettowin]

Been dabbling and doing OK but didn't want to post picks after the fact.

Here's one for tonight. Arizona and Pittsburgh under 8. Kennedy and Karstens going with Pittsburgh being ice cold this looks good.

[horses4courses]

Been dabbling and doing OK but didn't want to post picks after the fact.

Here's one for tonight. Arizona and Pittsburgh under 8. Kennedy and Karstens going with Pittsburgh being ice cold this looks good.

2 umpire plays for tonight - both unders

UN 9 MINN/NYY

UN 7 OAK/LAA

It's been in the tank so far (3-6)

[Bettowin]

Been dabbling and doing OK but didn't want to post picks after the fact.

Here's one for tonight. Arizona and Pittsburgh under 8. Kennedy and Karstens going with Pittsburgh being ice cold this looks good.

AZ/Pitt is actually 8 1/2 when I made another bet. Hopefully won't need that 1/2 run but nice to have.

Also did a parlay with Yankees and Angels for what amounts to +110.

[Marlin]

I wish I could bet baseball with positive results. I love the game. There is nothing I'd rather do than watch baseball for a living, except perhaps for being a pro golfer. It's fun to dream. Oh well I guess its back to the grind.

[Bettowin]

AZ/Pitt is actually 8 1/2 when I made another bet. Hopefully won't need that 1/2 run but nice to have.

Also did a parlay with Yankees and Angels for what amounts to +110.


Yankees win Angels lose bet lost

AZ/Pitt scored 9 runs bet lost


Back to work:)

[Bettowin]

A couple of fun ones for tonight. Browsing the player props I am going with these:

Most hits ,runs and rbi

Josh Willingham MN vs Nick Swisher NYY


Michael Young TX vs Kevin Youkilis


Not a lot of money just something I like:)

[Valuist]

Interesting tidbit in this link. Scroll down to Fairway Jay's blog about MLB totals in May.

http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/?sel_dater=2012-05-09#10009

10 years of data is pretty strong. Not many angles in sports betting can produce 56% winners from a sample size that big.

[BeatTheChalk]

Thanks for the info. The Website is quite a show. Maybe the hitters are
just ahead of the pitchers early in the year. It does seem that every time
I turn around - there is another Home Run

Go Cardinals - another World Series :lol:

[horses4courses]

This website seems to be excellent for sports stats:

http://www.statfox.com/

[Turkoman]

This website seems to be excellent for sports stats:

http://www.statfox.com/

Yes, it is. I used it before for the NFL. Lots of numbers there.

[BeatTheChalk]

Thanks for the information about the good site !!