Football handicapping

[ceejay]

I know that there are football handicappers out there. I don't bet football at all, so I'm curious other than the alledged touts who claim "exclusive inside the locker room info" what kind of methods are used by serious football handicappers?

[Observer]

Though this is not "official" and I am far from a "serious" football handicapper .. I used to believe Tampa Bay had a good record at covering the spread .. that is until this year .. they've seemed to struggle with that. I try to consider a team's performance with the spread .. like the Jets .. they keep it close .. but many times come up short .. I think they went something like 8 consecutive weeks failing to beat the spread, and overall only beat the spread a handful of times .. but what do I know??
:D ;) :D

[Valuist]

The team that wins the rushing battle covers the spread 70% of the time (fact, not opinion). Of course teams that are behind are more likely to pass to play catch up but teams that cannot work the clock w/a lead are teams in trouble. I believe Kansas CIty, Indianapolis and even Philadelphia will have problems in the playoffs because they are not good at defending the run.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I only bet playoffs- home team to beat the spread! They usually have best record and home field.

[Valuist]

One other thing: most decent football handicappers concentrate more on fundamental handicapping than technical handicapping. They focus how the two teams match up more than trends, which are meaningless the majority of the time.

[cato]

Valuist said: "They focus how the two teams match up more than trends, which are meaningless the majority of the time."

Interestng and glad to hear it. I'm not a sports better at all but listen to the discussions on sports radio. It sems like all you hear are these stupid trends:

"State U is 12 and 0 against the spread when a home dog against teams west of the Mississippi"

WHich seemed entirely bogus and a disconnect with any kind of real handicapping tha would be relevant to a score in a football game.

Cato

[Valuist]

Most trends involving play over a year ago are meaningless. What happened 5 or 6 years ago is completely irrelevant. Its really funny to hear that talk in college football, which is constantly turning players over (and to a lesser extent, coaches). Some trends which may have merit usually have a cause and effect (Team A is 0-5 ATS this year off a straight up win).

Sports talk radio is sometimes entertaining but usually the talk is from hosts and callers who are not handicappers. Sportswireonline and Prolineradio are sports talk shows archived on the Net which are from a gambling perspective. I'm not trying to shill picks for either one, but the radio shows are informative.

I don't handicap the NBA but I've heard many handicappers state that trends (same season) are much more significant in NBA capping than in football handicapping.

[Bubbles]

Early on in the year, I took advantage of the Chief's unstoppability. Bet 'em almost every week till they lost to Cinci, and most of their spreads were reasonable (under 10). That's why I'm only down $6 entering today. Go Panthers (-6, over Giants) and Cowboys (-2, over Saints)!

[freeneasy]

new england was the absolute play of week

[Rick]

Three factors that I've found are important on both offense and defense are number of rushes, rushing yards, and pass completion percent. If a team is better in the majority of these categories but is an underdog (after adjusting for home field advantage), it's probably an overlay. Another factor to consider is turnovers, but in a negative way. The teams that have committed more turnovers in the past will commit closer to the average number in the future but are bet as if they will continue at the higher rate, making them overlays more often than not.