Profitable Situations

[Robert Goren]

I don't expect anyone share a goldmine here, but most longtime handicappers have one thing that pops up maybe once or twice a month at track that they like. For me it something that pops every once in a while in a MSW race. There are two horse who ran together in a recent race. One is a horse (preferable a first or second time starter) who led or was close to the lead and fade to third or fourth in the stretch. The other horse passed the first horse in the stretch. For some reason the public loves horses like the first one and bet the hell out of them especially if it is the only front runner in the race. It not unusual to see it going off at 7/5 while the second horse is getting 3/1 or 7/2. It has been my experience that the second horse wins a lot more often than it is suppose to. I don't keep data bases so I can't give you exact numbers but I am sure that the second horse is a pretty profitable play. It doesn't happen often enough to making a living betting it, but it does add a little bit to my bottom line at the end of the year.
I hope some other people will share some plays that they like that don't pop up everyday.

[Robert Fischer]

Yea there are a whole set of plays involving contenders coming out of the same last race.

I don't have any rules there. Sometimes it's the opposite, and the speed horse isn't bet because a plodder ran evenly and passed him late. In general it's worth looking at the higher odds of the two or three.

[BIG HIT]

ON PACE AND CAP SITE THEY HAVE A SECTION ON TAMDEM .WHICH IS ALONG THE LINES YOUR SPEAKING OF YOU MAY FIND INTERESTING

[pondman]

In the last 5 years I've actively bet horses off a maiden wins on the West Coast. The method doesn't seem to stand up in N.Y.

[wisconsin]

In the last 5 years I've actively bet horses off a maiden wins on the West Coast. The method doesn't seem to stand up in N.Y.

Does seem to also work at cheap tracks. The lower the maiden claiming price, the better. If they do not win, they are often right there.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Speed on the turf in paceless races.I love turf races anyway but this is my most profitable angle.Nobody bets an early pace advantage on turf.Routine payoffs in the 7-1 range.

[Oaklawn John]

My current favorite is a MSW runner coming off a MSW 2nd place finish with a decent speed rating.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Goren wasn't limiting the thread to only Maiden Special Weight races.It was just his angle.Once this thread branches out it sounds like a good one!

[cnollfan]

Speed on the turf in paceless races.I love turf races anyway but this is my most profitable angle.Nobody bets an early pace advantage on turf.Routine payoffs in the 7-1 range.

Amen!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Amen!

Get Stormy,wire to wire,mile and an eighth on Derby day!!

[Robert Goren]

Goren wasn't limiting the thread to only Maiden Special Weight races.It was just his angle.Once this thread branches out it sounds like a good one! I hope you are right. I think most people have something in their back pocket that they think is profitable but only pops up a few times a year. I am hoping they might share. I don't expect anybody to give up their bread and butter plays.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I hope you are right. I think most people have something in their back pocket that they think is profitable but only pops up a few times a year. I am hoping they might share. I don't expect anybody to give up their bread and butter plays.

I think everybody could spill their guts and it wouldn't change a thing.Once 4 or 5 losses pile up the angle will be abandoned anyway.

[Xman2]

One of the best parts of Black Magic is that it clearly identifies runners who raced against each other in the previous race, and a big angle in the Blam philosophy is to look for these types and bet what we call the reversal protocol. The crowd will very frequently overbet the horse who finished ahead of the others from the previous race. In Blam language, this horse is called the "Reversal Winner" and the other runners from the previous race are referred to as "Reversers". The reversers have price built into them as they are often seen as inferior, seeing as they have just been beaten by the Reversal Winner. If the reverser is also a third start layoff horse, this is an added bonus and also clearly identified by the program, adding strength to the angle. The reversal winner is a good candidate for place/show as it often will run well enough to get in the money, but does not win all that much. These situations happen everyday and are a major source for profit for me. Check out WRD race 9 from today (4/3/12). I hit a very nice exacta playing the 3 and 7 over the 1,4,6,10. The 3 and 7 were both 3rd start layoff reversers, with the 6 being the reversal winner. The 1,4,6, and 10 were the other logical horses in my Blam setup. I missed the tri and super as I played the 3 and 7 in the win slot with the 6 in the place hole, and the other logical horses in the third spot. I should have taken a couple more tickets with the 6 in the third spot, but I will take and be happy with the $487.60 for the exacta.

Xman2

[pondman]

I think most people have something in their back pocket that they think is profitable but only pops up a few times a year. I am hoping they might share. I don't expect anybody to give up their bread and butter plays.


I'd give out some bread without the butter, if it didn't appear many members want to be journalist, bloggers, tauts, or publish papers. I've got some easy stuff, that doesn't take any time, and wins enough that it would be hard to loose overtime. But it would probably show up in a publication.I'm waiting for N.Y. shippers to Delaware to show up somewhere, which is okay, because it's nickle and dime stuff. There are some easy, rewarding plays out there...

In addition it's important to know the competition, which for me is the speed headed crowd, without revealing my methods.

[castaway01]

I'd give out some bread without the butter, if it didn't appear many members want to be journalist, bloggers, tauts, or publish papers. I've got some easy stuff, that doesn't take any time, and wins enough that it would be hard to loose overtime. But it would probably show up in a publication.I'm waiting for N.Y. shippers to Delaware to show up somewhere, which is okay, because it's nickle and dime stuff. There are some easy, rewarding plays out there...

In addition it's important to know the competition, which for me is the speed headed crowd, without revealing my methods.

Yes, I'm sure "publications" would be rushing to print vague comments of huge wins by "pondman". I wouldn't care except I've seen 100 of these posts from you and you claim big wins but there's never any meat on the bone. The game gets old after a while, doesn't it?

[windoor]

Without giving away the finer details, I have one that says a Mare at seven years old or older, at a specific distance and class is a play, and will win over 50% of the time at a very nice average odd.

I only had 25 or so plays for the entire 2011 year. So not much of a money maker.

I happened to be on the phone with Harry (H-cap) a couple of days ago while watching the races, when one came up. I mentioned it to him before the race in case he wanted to put a couple of dollars on it.

The horse breaks last and does not look like it is going to run today, only to make a huge move on the turn and a strong stretch run to win at $14.80. I felt like a proud papa:)

The power of a database shows itself again. Such an obscure play, I would never have found it without the J/Capper software.

Windoor

[Maximillion]

I don't expect anyone share a goldmine here, but most longtime handicappers have one thing that pops up maybe once or twice a month at track that they like. For me it something that pops every once in a while in a MSW race. There are two horse who ran together in a recent race. One is a horse (preferable a first or second time starter) who led or was close to the lead and fade to third or fourth in the stretch. The other horse passed the first horse in the stretch. For some reason the public loves horses like the first one and bet the hell out of them especially if it is the only front runner in the race. It not unusual to see it going off at 7/5 while the second horse is getting 3/1 or 7/2. It has been my experience that the second horse wins a lot more often than it is suppose to. I don't keep data bases so I can't give you exact numbers but I am sure that the second horse is a pretty profitable play. It doesn't happen often enough to making a living betting it, but it does add a little bit to my bottom line at the end of the year.
I hope some other people will share some plays that they like that don't pop up everyday.



I think this is great stuff,and have noticed it as well. (in hindsight)The effort does seem to set the horse back,(especially if it "dueled" for the lead). It looks like a horse "sitting on a win",and frequently fails at short odds.


I have noticed one along similiar lines,(rare),its a horse thats been terrible for an extended period of time,(could be a maiden,older horse,etc.)and suddenly runs a respectable race(usually some change involved) and follows it up with a "better than looked" effort,indicating the prior race wasnt a fluke

The third time IMHO may be the time to get on board(not just a 3rd off layoff)

[wisconsin]

I think this is great stuff,and have noticed it as well. (in hindsight)The effort does seem to set the horse back,(especially if it "dueled" for the lead). It looks like a horse "sitting on a win",and frequently fails at short odds.


I have noticed one along similiar lines,(rare),its a horse thats been terrible for an extended period of time,(could be a maiden,older horse,etc.)and suddenly runs a respectable race(usually some change involved) and follows it up with a "better than looked" effort,indicating the prior race wasnt a fluke

The third time IMHO may be the time to get on board(not just a 3rd off layoff)


This would be a "now" horse, the best ones to play.

[salty]

Although I don't keep acurate records I seem to do well with two turn miles when a horse is trying the same class after being hung wide in its previous race yet still managed to come within 4-5 lengths of the winner. I love seeing comments like Extreemly wide, wide on both turns.....

[Valuist]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]Yea there are a whole set of plays involving contenders coming out of the same last race.

I don't have any rules there. Sometimes it's the opposite, and the speed horse isn't bet because a plodder ran evenly and passed him late. In general it's worth looking at the higher odds of the two or three.[/QUOTE

A great example would be the Sunday finale at GP. A 50-1 shot won (and knocking out mine and many others P4s). This 50-1 was coming off something like an 8th or 9th place finish vs M75000 but wasn't beaten badly. Another horse coming out of the same race who finished maybe 2 lengths ahead of him took quite a decent amount of money. No-name trainer and Diego Gomez in the irons.....and was able to survive a claim of foul by Albertrani.

[InControlX]

Here's an angle I call the "Gosh the Sun's Out, I Think I'll Run Today" play that's quite rare but has been good to me... Find an entry who's last three races within two months span have been on muddy or sloppy tracks and each of these three efforts were even, mid-pack runs with little if any passing, with today's race at the same or lower class and same or lower distance on a fast track.

ICX