A real Turn Key Software, ??

[pktruckdriver]

I have a quote here from someone, who basically claims his stuff may be a , "Real Turn-key Profit Machine.

Real quote below


While we are on this topic, the private feedback I have had after this workshop leads me to make a very provocative statement: "NewPace has evolved to the point where it may be a real turn-key profit machine."

[acorn54]

the never-ending search for the holy grail
really at your age you should know better

[pktruckdriver]

the never-ending search for the holy grail
really at your age you should know better

I do know better, this is what I found here on this site stating this, not me, come on even I know this could not be true, that is why I had to repost the quote, and see what others thought .

Every one needs a laugh, and who knows this may be it, April :1: , have you been had , or we , That is the real question here....


Enjoy April everyone


Patrick

[Tom]

Two words for you....Monty Banks.

[headhawg]

I have two other words but I will get banned.

[Helles]

I'm quite unimpressed by an unattributed quote from an unknown source.

However, Mr. X 'might' be on to something. I purchased the latest NewPace seminar because I have used NewPace and I think it's a pretty darn good contender selector. I'm not using it at present, but I wanted to stay current on its development. (I am using HSH though.)

Many will remember a thread I started espousing the benefits of cooperation and mentoring. A work partner of mine who has been making real bets, albeit small bets, with the newest version of NewPace is reporting positive results over MANY bets.

More races are passed than before and I think this selectivity is a major improvement. The actual contender selection has also been improved.

I am going to stop short of saying this is a Black Box. I really don't know how a paper and pencil guy is going to make this latest iteration work. I also have not played it myself so I can't declare it anything other than an improvement. An obvious improvement.

I'm sure my work partner will be along soon to provide a quote from a known poster. But I doubt even he will bestow Black Box status on NewPace. It's still too early to say. But I'm sure all will agree that regardless of the method, it must continue to evolve because any advantage in this toughest of games is fleeting.

[hencicleva]

Why are you highlighting a quote about an updated product that you don't have? Why do you think your clearly impied opinion on it has any validity and then insult us by so thinly disguising your attack in the form of a poll?

In short. What Headhawg said!

[JimG]

Two words for you....Monty Banks.

I have 3 words for PK....


LET IT GO!

Jim

[pktruckdriver]

Upon re-reading my post I mentioned no names, ya'll are putting names in there for me, not me.

But the name you mentioned, I spent thousands of dollars there, including data downloads, and by Gawd I should have every right to say what I want to say, what gives you the right to deny me the right ???

I never got a penny back, never will I, nor should I, some say I should, yes plenty tell me this, and I guess if I did , I would go away, but I paid heavily for this right to say what I want, respectfully, and tactfully, giving my oipnion as I did watse alot of my $$$ trying something, which was a big failure for me, yet currently I am winning with my current tools, RDSS being one of them, and a few others things too, I am happy now, where before I was chastised and crucified by , someone, called a loser and things that are not repeatable here, I am only excersising my right to voice my opinion, which I paid for , that is all.

Have a Happy April Fools Day


Patrick

[jdhanover]

Patrick -

You don't like Dave. We all know that as it is well documented. But when you post stuff like this, you may want to ask yourself some questions since all you are really doing is belittling yourself in a public way:

1) Why would Dave talk highly about his product knowing that there is a forum for people to respond in which he participates...unless he believes there is truth to what he says? Granted there can be 'used car salesman' (no offense intended to any of you who are!) types, but Dave is a long-standing guy on here and well respected by most folks.

2) Why does he say it "may be" versus the stuff we all get in the mail that says 'guaranteed to make you a winner' type stuff? If you ever listen to him, he has always said it needs to be tailored to the individual's approach.

3) I know you also post in another forum where there is a group of folks using the prior version of New Pace, and some (not all) have tailored it to be a successful part of the arsenal. Yet you come here and blast away. It makes no sense to me at all.

4) Finally, I know how hard it is to turn the corner from losing to winning (I am just now getting there...after 30 years...with Dave's help and New Pace is a part of that). It takes a lot of WORK...even with something like New Pace. When I met you in Saratoga and listened to you talk (you stood right behind me for a half hour) it was very clear that you are a long way from where you need to be to be profitable in terms of discipline and willingness to work. This is where I was for many, many years so I can relate but never would I blast at people the way you do.


In addition to myself, I know several people who are using New Pace within HSH as a profitable method. Recognize that the profit is not a huge ROI% (maybe that is what you are seeking? - I dont think it exists), but more of a grind-it-out type of profit with good days and bad but overall profitability. We all worked with it, made different adjustments, continue to refine our methods and are VERY discsiplined in when and how they play.


I grant you that the words turn-key used may be a little bit of a stretch but Dave is trying to run a profitable business after all and selling will lean towards these sort of comments (in the context of what he says "turn-key" is not too far off). Instead of blastig away, don't you think you could have asked a more general question for New Pace users about the recet advancements?


I will close with I really enjoy 98% of PA. I look forward to every post from a number of guys on here as Itry to continue to learn every day. But then there are the few like you who cannot help themselves by making it personal. No one minds debating points (yes, Dave and I debate many things), but the personal attacks really are pointless. I suggest that you keep your personal issues with Dave to yourself as those posts help no one.

[EvenSteven]

Given all the complexities to this “sport” called horse handicapping, New Pace generates 4 contenders which have a high probability of winning. The thinking that went into New Pace is logical and sound which is borne out by the 4 contenders having a win rate ~ 80 – 85%. Thinking about that for a minute, NP is pretty amazing and an accomplishment.

[pktruckdriver]

Given all the complexities to this “sport” called horse handicapping, New Pace generates 4 contenders which have a high probability of winning. The thinking that went into New Pace is logical and sound which is borne out by the 4 contenders having a win rate ~ 80 – 85%. Thinking about that for a minute, NP is pretty amazing and an accomplishment.


Thank You

Wow 4 Contenders in a Race, I believe that most of the Tout Sheets give you 4 horse's to play, but tell me who plays 4 horse's every race, not me and certaintly not you, maybe I am wrong here, but I would be impressed and go away with my tail between my legs if and only if you got it down to 2 horse contender's that won an average of 80-85%, heck even 2 horse's who won at an average of say 60-65% , that would be very impressive, yes it would.

The improvement I have heard about , has not done this, am I wrong ??


By the way I want my cut of advertisement money, Sir !! You can not buy better advertisement than this.


patrick

[A to I]

PK, it is obvious from your post and other postings that you have a dislike for Dave and his software. I'll not go into that, what I would like to say here is that Dave's New Pace product is the REAL DEAL and that if a person is ready and willing to put some honest time into understanding and using the tools that HSH makes available they WILL be a WINNER. :)

[EvenSteven]

"By the way I want my cut of advertisement money, Sir !! You can not buy better advertisement than this."

I resent the implication I am in anyway being paid.

And as usual, you want someone to do everything for you.

-Bye Bye

[acorn54]

if a person is ready and willing to put some honest time into understanding and using the tools that HSH makes available they WILL be a WINNER. :)


that's what all the software pedalers say about their product.

[punteray]

I learned to drive in a Ford model "T" with a clutch,stick shift, and a spark advance. Then Ford did away with the spark advance BUT kept the clutch and stick shift. Many years went past and things advanced. The car salesman told me about the new "automatic shift " transmission and sold me a car with one in it. WHERE IS THE CLUTCH? WHERE IS MY BELOVED STICK SHIFT?

I am too old and set in my ways for these "new fangled" ideas from these "forward" looking people. Why can't they stick to the old ?tried and ?true methods of doing things?? DAVE, are you one of the "forward" looking people? So far, from my association with you, the answer is YES.

Keep up the good work!

[GameTheory]

.... called a loser and things that are not repeatable here, I am only excersising my right to voice my opinion, which I paid for , that is all.Being a loser and exercising your right to voice your opinion are not mutually exclusive -- you can easily accomplish both. Just saying...

[hencicleva]

Wow 4 Contenders in a Race, I believe that most of the Tout Sheets give you 4 horse's to play, but tell me who plays 4 horse's every race, not me and certaintly not you

patrick

If you don't understand the difference between a contender and a bet then you are really in trouble.

[windoor]

I am curious. Really!

Just how much is a true black box worth to you?

What would it take to convince you it really worked?

Would one need to post picks for a certain length of time to prove it's worth?

If someone actually had such a thing and posted picks for a period of time, would in not invite a sharp handicapper to be able to reverse engineer it, to see how it works?

Surely you must understand that if such a thing exists, it would have great value to the owner as a stand-alone application and the value would diminish greatly as more people became aware and used the same method. History bears this out.

Other than feeding the ego of the author, what possible reason could there be to make him/her want to give it up? I'm such a nice guy, I will give you 40 years of handicapping experience in a nice neat package, so anyone can earn a nice living at the track. Just pay the low, low price of $299.99. But wait!!! If you order this product in the next 24 hours, you will also receive "Dave's greatest exacta picks" for a full year. Absolutely free. Just pay separate shipping and handling charges :)

Reality is harsh. Only your mother loves you, everyone else wants something.

Regards,

Windoor

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay, enough of this nonsense.

Time for me to respond since (as Patrick seems to think) this is such good advertisement for my product.

First, I have been hearing forever that if anyone had anything that worked, they would never sell it. Therefore, if something is for sale it must have no value.

If that is the case, then why would you ever buy a single book on horse racing?


But wait! There's more! If nothing of value would ever be sold, then it follows that it certainly wouldn't be given away for free!

Again, if that is the case, why would anyone listen to what anyone else has to say about handicapping? I mean, logically, why would anyone give away handicapping ideas of value (or even little "nuggets") for free?


Let's get serious here... people DO buy books and they DO listen to other handicappers opinions. LOL - There is hardly a horseplayer to be found that is shy about sharing an opinion on how to beat the game.

Ask yourself how YOU learned about the game. If I were a gambling man (that's humor) I'd be willing to bet that most of the people here have read one or more books that have shaped their handicapping strategies and core beliefs. Most people here have, at one time or another, listened to what some well-known handicapper had to say and the CHOSE to LEARN from it.

The question always boils down to who you should listen to and who should
be put on ignore when it comes to handicapping logic. It is really that simple.

Feel free to choose to put me on your ignore list if you feel I have nothing worthwhile to say. We always have that choice.

Here was my original quote, and it is completely in context:
While we are on this topic, the private feedback I have had after this workshop leads me to make a very provocative statement: "NewPace has evolved to the point where it may be a real turn-key profit machine."

History of NewPace
(Those of you who feel that nothing of value is ever sold or given away may choose to not bother reading any more. After all, what could you possibly gain?)

1. Before NewPace
I originally developed NewPace for me. I had been a "dynamic modeler" for years. That is, I built a model of "races like this one" on the fly. That model was reasonably tight:

Same Track
Same Surface
Same Distance
Similar Track Condition
Same Approximate Age
Similar Pace Pressure (Thank you, Randy Giles)
+/- 2 Months of the Year

I then queried the system to answer a simple question: "What factors have best indicated what a winning horse looks like in a race like this?" (Thanks go here to Tom Brohamer for his original concept: The Brohamer Model.)

This methodology worked for me for several years. (It still works, BTW.) One reason it works is that not too many people do something like this.

Over the years I tried many other approaches but, in the end, I came back to my dynamic approach every time because nothing was as consistent and self-correcting.


2. The Beginning of NewPace
When I hit upon the idea that almost every single race ultimately boiled down to a battle between early horse(s) and late horse(s) I thought I had discovered the absolute answer.

NewPace was very powerful, right from the very beginning. It allowed me to get horses that conventional pace handicapping just could not find. Many of these horses were at significantly higher than average prices, too.

At this point I had no intention of introducing NewPace to the world.


3. Intermediate NewPace
About 30,000 races into NewPace testing/tinkering, I became convinced that the approach was very good but would never take me where I wanted to go: namely, playing 90% of all races, with multiple horses per race.

It was a good methodology, but not good enough for ME. That was when I decided that I could share it with the world. (I admit to a less-than-altruistic motive here.) BTW, I shared it first with my inner-circle of HSH users - wrote some code to help them, taught them how to use it, etc. They helped me improve it.


4. NewPace for Sale
Once I announced that I was working on NewPace as a product for sale, I went to work to make the product better. I really do try to give the customer/client the best shake for his money.

It was during the pre-sale development that I made some interesting discoveries. These discoveries made NewPace more viable as a tool for ME. There were times that I seriously considered refunding everyone's money and keeping it to myself.

My logic was almost in agreement with the concept that nobody sells something good. I would say that nobody knowingly sells something good enough to make a living with for $77, $777 or even $7,777.

But it was definitely worth $77.


5. NewPace Develops
NewPace continued to develop.

In this slide from the NewPace Advanced workshop, I highlighted the issues and problems that NewPace users were facing with the original product.

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/NewPace/NPAdv-Issues.png

These are the issues that I set out to solve for myself, and for ALL NewPace users.

NewPace Advanced addressed all of these.


My Responsibility: Honor and Integrity Matter
I have already admitted that I am not a purely altruistic person. Profit, business and common sense do play a part.

However, just so we are clear, I recognize that I DO have a reasonable level of responsibility to continue helping my customers and purchasers after the purchase.

I DO NOT owe them a lifetime of research to improve their handicapping.

I DO NOT owe them access to every discovery that I make.

I DO NOT owe them unlimited access to technical support for a book or video.

However, I DO owe them a fair shake. I owe them an opportunity to purchase, at a reasonable cost, the results of research I do.

It is safe to say that not everyone I have ever dealt with is a happy camper. Only in some perfect world could that happen. (Imagine, by John Lennon, playing in the background.)

Nevertheless, these are the ideals that I strive to achieve.


Thanks for listening. I suggest that we put this thread to bed.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: Oh, I assure you that black boxes DO exist. How do you think all those whales beat the game?

[pktruckdriver]

Well done Dave

Your post was wriiten with honesty and integrity, as you, and I still think you are looking for the Holy Grail, for which you will sell it when you think you have found it and I wish you the best in finding it.

I was with you for years and you have so many things going, but your recent claim today went too far , even for you to make that claim.

I never said HSH was not a great software program, my Gawd it is a monster program, but you almost need a Degree in Computer Sceince to use it fully, yet you took me on anyway, took my money, knowing I struggled turning on my laptop, met me and still kept selling to me, then when I could not win, using your products and posted the contenders on a website for all to see, and you saw how bad they were, you banned me, saying bad things, when all I did was post what was there, what you taught me, that is what makes me so aggrevated, as I spent 1000's with you at HSH, including data too if course, (data adds up quickly), to be booted because your Turn-key system did not work, FOR ME, sad man, very sad.

Dave you are very intelligent, make a wonderful program, but are always looking for another way to get some $$, which is understandable, you are in this to make money from us actual players, we don't see you in the contest's here, or putting up your plays like so many others have done , I always wondered why, but Gapfire does, and others like RDSS play and win these contest's, to me that is putting your product out there where it needs to be, for all to see. You could do this but choose not to, why is that, Dave?


Whales , Whales Whales, Oh My, please let us fear them , they have their Black Boxes, like the Mad Bomber at MTR , the 5k bettor who plays many races , almost each night there, and often misses the board completely, once in awhile, but not always, and he makes the pay offs very nice when ever he missess, but at least he bet 1 horse not 4 horse's.


I am sorry but getting 4 horse's as your contenders, while a starting place I agree, but explain to me how this is a Turn-key Profit machine, now if you were able to narrow it down to 1-2 horse's then this would be an amazing product, especially if it had a 60% win rate or better for 2 contender's, but it does not, it gives you 4-5 horses as contender's, and well enough, like Dave said !!

Let me put this rest I had my say, I am happy now


God Bless you Dave and all NP users, may you find what you are looking for


patrick

[Dave Schwartz]

Dave you are very intelligent, make a wonderful program, but are always looking for another way to get some $$, which is understandable, you are in this to make money from us actual players, we don't see you in the contest's here, or putting up your plays like so many others have done , I always wondered why, but Gapfire does, and others like RDSS play and win these contest's, to me that is putting your product out there where it needs to be, for all to see. You could do this but choose not to, why is that, Dave?


Doesn't pay enough

[headhawg]

...Let me put this rest I had my say, I am happy now...
patrickWell, we've heard that one before. :rolleyes:

I can't believe that you are allowed to still post all of your crap here but that's not my call. You clearly have psychological problems. Do you feel inferior to other handicappers? Did you get jilted sometime in your past? Do you have Mommy issues?

If you feel the need to be heard why don't you just keep posting with the RDSS people? They have apparently welcomed you in, and they can have you and all of your baggage.

[PaceAdvantage]

pktruckdriver isn't much of a truth teller either...so I'd take anything he posts with a grain of salt.

Let's backtrack over this little gem:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=59267

That thread was posted in June of 2009. That was almost THREE YEARS AGO.

Obviously, RDSS didn't end up being much to him if he went over to Dave and HSH...but he still claims that RDSS is where it's at.

If that's the case, why did he ever seek out Dave to begin with?

Something doesn't smell right here. Maybe headhawg is onto something. I know when Patrick addresses me on here, I'm more often than not left confused and shaking my head wondering what the heck he just said...

I can't tell whether he's being serious or busting balls half the time...scary, considering the latter would be the obvious choice...

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, you have no idea how many times patrick has said he's done talking about Dave...but the obsession continues.

[Tom]

I think the time has come for Dave and Jonnielu to team up on a project and call it PKBlackbox.

[headhawg]

Well Patrick sent me a PM and I quote, "Kiss My Ass". Well Patrick, pick a spot -- you're all ass!

[PaceAdvantage]

Well Patrick sent me a PM and I quote, "Kiss My Ass". Well Patrick, pick a spot -- you're all ass!That's not very nice of him...might even be considered an abuse of privileges...tsk tsk tsk...

[PaceAdvantage]

Do you realize he's been posting this shit about Dave for almost A YEAR now...and STILL CLAIMS he's being censored or that Dave has me in his back pocket and he's not allowed to speak his mind... :lol: :lol: :lol:

Freakin' hilarious this clown has become...he PMs me regularly about how he needs to post YET AGAIN about Dave...Dave Dave Dave Dave Dave...for almost a year now...

I tell him ENOUGH DUDE...you are becoming a SPAMMER at this point...the same shit OVER and OVER and OVER again....

YOU HAD YOUR SAY...MULTIPLE TIMES...stop making shit up that you don't get an opportunity to speak your mind...

[Dave Schwartz]

PA,

Sure, ruin this advertisement thread that Patrick and I had all worked out.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :bang:

Dave

[MartyZee]

He sure is annoying-the same crap over and over again

[JimG]

Does Patrick really think he is the first person to buy racing related material and be dissatisfied with a product? Heck, I am sure most of us have many times over. We chalk it up to experience, and move on.

Patrick, you are not the first, but you damn sure are the whiniest and most annoying on this subject that I have observed in almost 20 years of internet and Prodigy horse racing boards. Congrats on that.

Jim

[Tom]

Patrick....no one cares.

[windoor]

Against my better judgment I posted in this thread with a serious question.
How much would you pay, and what kind of proof would you require for a profitable Black Box?

Which has yet to be answered by anyone. I was just curious.

Although I also poked a little fun at those who would advertize a product for sale that would "consistently" turn a profit at the track. Not saying anyone here did. My Dad had quite a bit of faith (unwarranted) it some of these products.

I do have a little problem with this statement. Maybe I took it out of context?

"First, I have been hearing forever that if anyone had anything that worked, they would never sell it. Therefore, if something is for sale it must have no value."

Wow, that is a huge leap from a "Black Box" to everything connected to horse racing that is for sale, "has no value" . Simply not true.

I have paid quite a bit for information and software these last few years, and have found great value in my purchases. I suspect many others can say the same. I did not purchase a Black Box, but seem to have one anyway.

And after reading my own first post, it might seem I was taking a stab at Dave Swartz. Not at all. I have the highest regard for Dave. For the record, my name is Dave also. It was a small attempt at humor, and most know, I fail miserably at exotics.


Regards,

Windoor

[njcurveball]

I purchased a saw recommended by a Master Carpenter at a very steep price, also purchased some expensive blades for it as well. I have used it twice. I wonder if I can take it back to the store after a few years and get a refund.

The Master Carpenter swears by it, I swear at it. :bang:

He says it cuts like champ, I only can cut like a chump! :liar:

Yeah, that damn saw just sucks! I think all stores should take items back at any time, even after a few years! But hey, if anyone wants to buy some really good blades, slightly used, contact me. ;)

[Vinnie]

I purchased a saw recommended by a Master Carpenter at a very steep price, also purchased some expensive blades for it as well. I have used it twice. I wonder if I can take it back to the store after a few years and get a refund.

The Master Carpenter swears by it, I swear at it. :bang:

He says it cuts like champ, I only can cut like a chump! :liar:

Yeah, that damn saw just sucks! I think all stores should take items back at any time, even after a few years! But hey, if anyone wants to buy some really good blades, slightly used, contact me. ;)


Love your Post Njcurveball... LOL.....

[PaceAdvantage]

And after reading my own first post, it might seem I was taking a stab at Dave Swartz. Not at all. I have the highest regard for Dave.Kind of loses its punch when you realize his last name is spelled Schwartz...

[Dave Schwartz]

Dave Swartz

Would you be surprised to find out that I am actually Irish? Seriously.



Against my better judgment I posted in this thread with a serious question.
How much would you pay, and what kind of proof would you require for a profitable Black Box?

Which has yet to be answered by anyone. I was just curious.

Some years ago I asked the same question here.

Specifically, I asked the question (not verbatim; from memory) "If I developed a software program that I could prove to your satisfaction would produce $20,000 per month how much would you be willing to pay for it?"

I got several responses and a little discussion but the biggest number was $1,000. Understand, that wasn't $1,000 per month, but a one-time price of $1,000.

It goes to show just how unrealistic horse players can be.

Now, I understand that someone might not believe that it is even remotely possible to beat the game on a consistent basis. I know that we have many people here who believe that.

But... and this is a very large but... if it could be proven to your satisfaction, how much would you pay for $20k per month in profit? (Rhetorical question. I do not sell things that way.) What ever the fair answer is (to both buyer and seller) I think it is safe to assume that the "fair price" is a lot more than $1,000.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[castaway01]

Does Patrick really think he is the first person to buy racing related material and be dissatisfied with a product? Heck, I am sure most of us have many times over. We chalk it up to experience, and move on.

Patrick, you are not the first, but you damn sure are the whiniest and most annoying on this subject that I have observed in almost 20 years of internet and Prodigy horse racing boards. Congrats on that.

Jim

Aside from poor Dave having to waste his time refuting the same claims over and over again, the saddest part about these Patrick "woe is me" threads is that over the years he has received a lot of intelligent, well-thought-out advice. People have taken the time to try to explain that maybe this isn't the game for him, that you can't try to hit a 500-foot home run when you can barely pick up a bat, that you have to work hard and be patient and learn discipline to succeed, and that you can't blame the tools (as NJCurveball cleverly described a bit earlier in the thread). A lot of effort has been put in by some very sharp people to try to help the guy out, and it's a shame it's all gone to waste and his mindset appears to be exactly what it was at the start.

[thaskalos]

But... and this is a very large but... if it could be proven to your satisfaction, how much would you pay for $20k per month in profit?

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

$100,000...CASH!

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd say it's worth more like $360,000....

[thaskalos]

I'd say it's worth more like $360,000....
Maybe so...but we need to keep some money in order to set up a suitable bankroll.

If I were to get into a bidding war for it with someone else though...the gloves are off...

[windoor]

So much for my quick typing and spelling. Apologies.

And what kind of proof would you require that such a thing exists and is indeed profitable?

Windoor

[thaskalos]

So much for my quick typing and spelling. Apologies.

And what kind of proof would you require that such a thing exists and is indeed profitable?

Windoor
To have you demonstrate it to me at the track, with real money, for 2,000 bets.

Or I should say 2,000 betting races...in case this is one of those methods which requires placing many bets in the same race.

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, I came up with my figure using a 1.5x annual profit, considering it is still a very high risk venture...

If it weren't a high risk venture, it would be worth even more...

[thaskalos]

BTW, I came up with my figure using a 1.5x annual profit, considering it is still a very high risk venture...

If it weren't a high risk venture, it would be worth even more...

Yes...I agree.

But there are other considerations too, which would play a major role in determining the value of such a method.

After all, Dave is a very competent computer programmer.

What assurances could we have that we would be the only ones to possess such a method...now, or in the future? :)

[Dave Schwartz]

The idea that the seller runs through a bunch of races to "prove" the worth of his system would subject the seller to perhaps a month of full-time work to prove the system's worth. This is simply impractical.


I would suggest a better plan (were I to seriously consider ever doing this again).


Both parties must be protected.

The seller must be required to prove that the system works but that will naturally incur a serious expense on the part of the seller.

The buyer must be required to provide proof that he is, in fact, capable of bringing such a project to fruition and that he has money to pay.

Here is how it would likely work:

1. Both parties would agree on the scope of the project. That is, how much money is expected to be won on (say) an annual basis.

For arguments sake, let's assume that the number agreed upon is $200,000 in annual profits.

2. The parties must come to an agreement as to what a reasonable percentage of that profit belongs to the system seller.

Let's assume that the figure 20% is acceptable to both parties, with an additional bonus if certain targets are met. (Example: Software actually produces $400,000 in profit - how does this effect the split? Or software only produces $100,00 or even a loss - what then?)

3. An agreement is made that the money is to be charged monthly, quarterly, or annually based upon the anticipation of a minimum profit in year one.
Using the figures above, that would mean the cost for the first year would be $40,000. It is reasonable that this would be paid monthly for 6 months, and then quarterly.

4. In addition, there would be a start-up cost to cover some of the developer's training costs. This also serves as a good faith deposit to verify the buyer's sincerity and ability to pay.

A reasonable start-up cost would be (say) $12,000 plus whatever physical expenses are incurred by the seller for on-site training.

5. The software seller builds in a copy protection process that allows the user to be (effectively) turned off remotely.


6. This arrangement would be logically be month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter, or annual, as the parties choose.


7. Exclusivity is an issue that must be dealt with.
Most developers, for the money discussed here, would not agree to an exclusive contract.


This is a simplistic approach to a potentially complex problem. There has to be some element of trust involved and there is always risk, but it would be minimal to both parties.

The buyer is at risk with his initial investment, and the seller with his initial time. I assure you that $12k for the setup of such a system, including training, etc. is not a profit-making endeavor for the seller. It does offer some compensation.

I can only imagine that the majority of players here would think this entire concept to be ludicrous. They could not imagine paying $40k to stay in business for a year. Of course, without profits, there is only the initial investment of $12k.


Just for the record, and to be perfectly clear: I am not in the market for any deals such as this. I truly only posted this a an example of how it could be done.

That being said, if anyone is interested in advice and guidance about how to build YOUR OWN system, for YOUR OWN corporation or team, I can help. That is part of what I do. My consulting rates are reasonable.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[PaceAdvantage]

You are in effect, buying a proven business. There are well established guidelines on what one should expect to pay for a business given established cash flow...

As always, in business, there is no absolute guarantee that future performance will equal or exceed past performance. That's where your due diligence comes into play.

[Dave Schwartz]

I would liken it more to buying a "franchise."

The nature of a franchise is that it comes with a blueprint that the seller of the franchise claims works. Effectively, they say, "Follow this blueprint closely and you will be successful."

Consider the difference in franchise costs. A McDonald's franchise is a massive amount of money because the system has really been proven to work. One reason that they are so well-proven is that the franchisee is required to put up such a huge amount of capital, not only for the franchise itself but to prove that he is not under-capitalized.

In comparison, there are many franchise models that do not come with that kind of historic proof. Inevitably, they cost less to get into to than McD and have a correspondingly higher failure rate.


Racing is different. The biggest issue is proof of a working system. The second big issue is the practicality of the system itself.

I had a conversation a few weeks back with someone who wanted to start a "betting-for-profit" business with the idea that he would become a whale of sorts.

I began with a critical question: "How many employees are you planning on having?"

"Why do I need employees?"

"Do you plan on handicapping every card, every day? That takes employees."

That is why "scope of project" really matters.

Most guys have not thought this through. Playing full time, even 5 days per week, is called having a j-j-j-job. Is that really what you want?

[thaskalos]

What would prompt a system seller to sell a "black-box" type system/method capable of earning such a nice living at the track...for ANY price?

I mean...the most desirable part of playing this game is the fact that there is no age limit requirement attached to it.

If a person has such a "system" in his possession for his exclusive use...he can safely count on using it for many years to come...

What is one possible reason that such a seller could present...without it sounding ridiculous?

[Dave Schwartz]

What would prompt a system seller to sell a "black-box" type system/method capable of earning such a nice living at the track...for ANY price?

Personally, I have no desire to HAVE to play every day to make a living. As I said in my above post, that is called a "job."

[PaceAdvantage]

Personally, I have no desire to HAVE to play every day to make a living. As I said in my above post, that is called a "job."A man with your programming skills should be able to automate almost everything about it...no? Provided you can indeed "black box" it...

But it wouldn't be a black box per se, because you would program it, and you would know exactly how it is going about doing its thing...

Automation does not necessarily equate to black box...black box inspires mystery... :lol:

[thaskalos]

Personally, I have no desire to HAVE to play every day to make a living. As I said in my above post, that is called a "job."

Having a "black box" system which makes you $200,000 a year is the same as having a "job"?

[Dave Schwartz]

No, you cannot automate the making of the bets.

At least nobody that I know of does that SUCCESSFULLY.

There are too many races where at zero minutes to post the horses are still 5 minutes away, or the entry scratches, or the race is off the turf, or the track is now off.

The point is that it takes a bet-making TEAM to make it happen. This demands employees.

[Dave Schwartz]

Having a "black box" system which makes you $200,000 a year is the same as having a "job"?

Absolutely.

If I have to be somewhere or do something to get paid, that is a job. If I am trading hours for dollars, that is a job.

[thaskalos]

Absolutely.

If I have to be somewhere or do something to get paid, that is a job. If I am trading hours for dollars, that is a job.

Whatever happened to that old saying which goes..."If you really love what you do for a living...then you won't have to 'work' a day in your life"? :)

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - That works until you want to take a month off or you HAVE to take a month off.

Don't misunderstand me. I can think of way worse ways to make a living. And I can also understand that someone who works at a job now would love to do this instead.

You asked what would prompt a system seller to sell a system that works and I answered.

Consider this... Suppose I have built a system that can earn me (or somebody else) $200,000 per year. Now, imagine that I can...

1. Play that system, 5 days per week, 50 weeks per year, and earn $200,000. Let's say that my net is $100 per hour.

Or

2. Sell that variations of that system to (say) 3 people who each pay me $40k, for a total of only $120k per year, $80k less. However, I only have to work maybe 5-10 hours a month to support these players. Now I am making $1,000 per hour and life is a lot more fun.


It is all about one's personal choices and I choose door #2.


Dave

[thaskalos]

LOL - That works until you want to take a month off or you HAVE to take a month off.

Don't misunderstand me. I can think of way worse ways to make a living. And I can also understand that someone who works at a job now would love to do this instead.

You asked what would prompt a system seller to sell a system that works and I answered.

Consider this... Suppose I have built a system that can earn me (or somebody else) $200,000 per year. Now, imagine that I can...

1. Play that system, 5 days per week, 50 weeks per year, and earn $200,000. Let's say that my net is $100 per hour.

Or

2. Sell that variations of that system to (say) 3 people who each pay me $40k, for a total of only $120k per year, $80k less. However, I only have to work maybe 5-10 hours a month to support these players. Now I am making $1,000 per hour and life is a lot more fun.


It is all about one's personal choices and I choose door #2.


Dave

I agree with you, my friend...I am just joking around.

There are many things that are very exciting when you do them once in a while...but when your livelihood depends on them, they lose their luster real fast.

[facorsig]

Personally, I moved from another software product that I had used for more than ten years to HSH in 2006. Six years later I remain a dedicated HSH user.

As I learned proficiency with the software, I have worked with many other users to explain how to use the software as a tool in the toolbox. Some folks always go to the hammer and others have their own favorite tools. This type of player isn't successful because they don't learn to vary the solution to match the problem.

Toolboxes are as varied as tools. Some toolboxes have sharp pencils, others have lots of erasers or even a solid state hard drive.

As the craftsman gets older, he acquires new tools and new toolboxes. Some people will call the tools of the trade "toys", but to the owner, they are his pride and joy.

My contribution to this thread is to add that I worked with Patrick on several occasions to develop proficiency with using the software. There were issues with laptops, operating systems and computer user skills such as powering the laptop off during a calculation (compounding problems). I wasn't able to replicate his problems, but there was no shortage of frustration on his end. He wasn't getting it. He wasn't going to get it. Patrick's comment line in the software race could have been anywhere from "Rank" to "Bobbled at the gate". I hope the computer and operating system issues have corrected and he is able meet his objective of winning large amounts of money on the Kentucky Derby. The attraction of the Derby must be some type of bragging rights and the emotional energy associated with inability to achieve this goal has resulted in these endless tirades. Personally, I don't care if my winnings come from cashing on a cheap claimer (the bread and butter of horse racing) or an allowance race.

Pat - Please don't pee on my toys. Stay home or play with the other kids.

[raybo]

Although I don't use Dave's products, I do believe that they have value. Sure some users will not, and never will, show a profit, no matter how good the tool.

Case in point, I have/had a user of one of my projects who started using it and said it was the best thing he had ever used in his 40 or so years of playing, "and winning(?)", in horse racing. He would call me every day or 2 telling me how great the method was and the large payouts he was getting from it, a true black box.

Then one day he called and said the method wasn't worth anything because it had hit the inevitable losing streak that every method experiences. Basically, he gave up on something that had already proven itself to him. All of a sudden he's enraged that his ROI had dropped from 1.65 to 1.02 or so, 2 months or so into the meet. I ran the exact same cards through my copy of the same program and found that he was not following the rules I sent along with the program and that if he had followed those rules his ROI would have dropped to 1.20, not 1.02. Also, the number of low priced winners at the track he was playing had increased dramatically in those last couple of weeks Even though the method was still pointing to those low priced winners as final contenders, one of the rules says to not wager on those low priced contenders.

The game is dynamic, and cycles from profit to loss, and vice versa. One must recognize when things are in a negative cycle, no matter what product you use, and adjust your play accordingly. If a method starts doing poorly, you must decrease your wagers, or your play, or both, until things return to normal.

In short, someone could indeed create the Holy Grail, and there would still be some users that would not show a profit, long term. Discipline and consistency, and a bunch of common sense are absolutely required to make log term profit.

Some people just don't have what it takes to be profitable, bottom line!

[Sly7449]

Amazing that such a Thread Drift is allowed to continue.

PK, you have demonstrated that you have learned something from a well respected Tutor.

Your ability to Author a Poll so that you can evaluate others opinion on the BBS is a plus.

What is wrong is that you choose the wrong BBS to start this Thread.

Many responses but most are addressing you and even your Mother and other members of your Family.

Smell the coffee and bow out with some form of dignity. The Odds are Not On Your Side.

[PaceAdvantage]

Amazing that such a Thread Drift is allowed to continue.

PK, you have demonstrated that you have learned something from a well respected Tutor.

Your ability to Author a Poll so that you can evaluate others opinion on the BBS is a plus.

What is wrong is that you choose the wrong BBS to start this Thread.

Many responses but most are addressing you and even your Mother and other members of your Family.

Smell the coffee and bow out with some form of dignity. The Odds are Not On Your Side.You act as if this is the first time PK has raised this topic. This thread is treated as spam, as well it should be.

If you were familiar with the history of PK and his nonstop repetition going on almost a year, you may not be as tolerant either.

Maybe I should create a section just for PK so that he can post the same thing over and over again?

Chose the wrong BBS...that's a laugh...which one should he have chosen? The one with 30 users online, or the one with 10?

[windoor]

What would prompt a system seller to sell a "black-box" type system/method capable of earning such a nice living at the track...for ANY price?

I mean...the most desirable part of playing this game is the fact that there is no age limit requirement attached to it.

If a person has such a "system" in his possession for his exclusive use...he can safely count on using it for many years to come...

What is one possible reason that such a seller could present...without it sounding ridiculous?


Assuming one has many years left.

One reason may be an elderly gentleman who knows time is short, and discovered the winning formula much too late in life, and has no one to leave it to. Maybe there in not enough life insurance to see her through, and this may be a way to ease the burden.

Does this sound ridiculous?

Windoor

[atlasaxis]

Assuming one has many years left.

One reason may be an elderly gentleman who knows time is short, and discovered the winning formula much too late in life, and has no one to leave it to. Maybe there in not enough life insurance to see her through, and this may be a way to ease the burden.

Does this sound ridiculous?

Windoor


Windoor,

Reading your post just gave me chills. Last year I bought some old ATM mags from an elderly gentleman on ebay. Through our correspondence I found out that he also was a Ray Taulbot fan from way back. He was very knowledgeable, and claimed to have had very good success with the manual pace calc. I told him I thought Taulbot was a genius that was way ahead of his time and that I loved reading his old articles. He told me he found some more old ATMs and asked if I was I was interested in them. I said yes, I would definitely buy them from him. After receiving the ATMs we wrote back and forth several times when one day I received a package in the mail with this note enclosed:

Hi Tom,
I'm happy you are learning the Taulbot method..And enjoying it..
And since I've found a person that does think Taulbot knew what he was doing..I'm going to send you something that very few people in the US have in their handicapping library..
You see Tom, I have cancer. I don't know how long I have left and I want to get as much of my collection into good hands that may get some enjoyment and hopefully profitability, and may appreciate reading it.

So I'm going to send you Ray Taulbot's 12 Lessons in Handicapping, 10 lesson Final Handicapping Procedure, Improved Pace Handicapping and Taulbot's book of his 55 angles ..Very rare. These are copies I bought on E-bay some years ago......If you have a few minutes, go to ALIBRIS BOOKS and do a search Ray Taulbot and you can read about these Lessons...These copies that I have are clean not all marked up..You will enjoy reading them and studying them...
NO CHARGE, I'll be pleased that they are going to someone that may enjoy them..
Your going to be one of the few people that have these Lessons.....Take care of them and maybe sell them later on E-bay..As copies. That's how I bought them..
Anyway I'll get them in the mail soon. I think you will enjoy them.
I'll send them if you want them.. Guess I jumped the gun on that.
I hope you are doing well with the pace software and do well in the tournaments you enter..
Best regards,
xxxxx

Needless to say I was stunned when I received this package and immediately wrote him to thank him. I heard back from him once more before receiving a response to my many unanswered emails and snail mails that my very thoughtful, generous friend is no longer with us. RIP my friend, I'm forever thankful for your gift and will forever treasure our short lived friendship.

Tom

[thaskalos]

Assuming one has many years left.

One reason may be an elderly gentleman who knows time is short, and discovered the winning formula much too late in life, and has no one to leave it to. Maybe there in not enough life insurance to see her through, and this may be a way to ease the burden.

Does this sound ridiculous?

Windoor
No, my friend...it doesn't sound ridiculous; it sounds plausible.

But if I saw it in a brochure, or some other form of advertisement...I must admit that I would never believe it...mainly because I have fallen for this exact same pitch once or twice, in the distant past...

[acorn54]

back to reality here is a portion on professional gamblers
the entire article is in the link below


EARNING IT; Life's a Gamble. A Few People Make It a Profession.
By ANDREW BLUTH
Published: November 09, 1997
SIGN IN TO E-MAIL
PRINT

FOR Lem Banker, becoming a professional gambler was a matter of joining the family business.

Mr. Banker, perhaps one of the most successful gamblers in Las Vegas, Nev., learned the trade of sports betting from his father in Union City, N.J., where the family-owned candy store doubled as a bookmaking parlor.

And Mr. Banker, who is 70, is unusual in another way. While a fast-growing number of Americans are willing to engage in gambling, he is one of a small percentage who have made a career of it, earning all of their income from legal gambling.

Would-be professional gamblers, however, should think hard before quitting their day jobs. Only one-half of 1 percent of all gamblers fall into the professional category, according to the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey. While actual numbers are hard to come by, people in the field say the number of professional gamblers may be 100,000 to 700,000 nationwide. Such gamblers are heavily regulated and must win a lot -- and keep good records -- to make the financials work.




http://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/09/business/earning-it-life-s-a-gamble-a-few-people-make-it-a-profession.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

[raybo]

back to reality here is a portion on professional gamblers
the entire article is in the link below


EARNING IT; Life's a Gamble. A Few People Make It a Profession.
By ANDREW BLUTH
Published: November 09, 1997
SIGN IN TO E-MAIL
PRINT

FOR Lem Banker, becoming a professional gambler was a matter of joining the family business.

Mr. Banker, perhaps one of the most successful gamblers in Las Vegas, Nev., learned the trade of sports betting from his father in Union City, N.J., where the family-owned candy store doubled as a bookmaking parlor.

And Mr. Banker, who is 70, is unusual in another way. While a fast-growing number of Americans are willing to engage in gambling, he is one of a small percentage who have made a career of it, earning all of their income from legal gambling.

Would-be professional gamblers, however, should think hard before quitting their day jobs. Only one-half of 1 percent of all gamblers fall into the professional category, according to the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey. While actual numbers are hard to come by, people in the field say the number of professional gamblers may be 100,000 to 700,000 nationwide. Such gamblers are heavily regulated and must win a lot -- and keep good records -- to make the financials work.




http://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/09/business/earning-it-life-s-a-gamble-a-few-people-make-it-a-profession.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

Great article!! That's it in a nutshell.

If you don't treat wagering as a business, you're more than likely just another gambler seeking entertainment or thrill, not a level-headed investor seeking long term profit.

You don't have to be a "professional" to make profit, but you must apply yourself like a professional, meaning patience in acting when you have an edge and good potential return on your investment, discipline when you don't have an edge or the return potential is too low, consistency in staying with what has proven to work, for you, and not "chasing" with poor betting, in a losing streak, and good record keeping in order to know where the profit is, for you.

[Dave Schwartz]

Ray,

All that has been said is true and you have made some very good points in this thread.

I think the biggest disconnect is the one between perceived good bets and actual good bets. The only way you learn the difference is with study of your past plays.

By "Study of past plays" I do not mean individual bets as much as the overall performance of the system or method. If you do not have a system or method then you have nothing to improve.

Most bettors are simply not willing to do that. As someone said earlier, perhaps that is because they do not really want to face the truth. At the very least it is simply too much work for most players to do.

What most players want to do is... well, play. Which is fine, if that is their choice. But the ultimate result of that will not likely be winning.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[bob60566]

Ray,

All that has been said is true and you have made some very good points in this thread.

I think the biggest disconnect is the one between perceived good bets and actual good bets. The only way you learn the difference is with study of your past plays.

By "Study of past plays" I do not mean individual bets as much as the overall performance of the system or method. If you do not have a system or method then you have nothing to improve.

Most bettors are simply not willing to do that. As someone said earlier, perhaps that is because they do not really want to face the truth. At the very least it is simply too much work for most players to do.

What most players want to do is... well, play. Which is fine, if that is their choice. But the ultimate result of that will not likely be winning.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Thanks Dave
If handicappers would apply this and then start asking questions.
Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Dave Schwartz]

For further description of what I am talking about, read the 2nd post in this thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=92962

THIS is how you imp[rove your play.

Imagine that you play 3 days per week, just 20 races per day. That is 60 races per week. At the end of a year you have handicapped 3,000 races.

This is not just 3,000 races in a database, it is 3,000 races handicapped the way you handicap!

You can look at your winners. You can look at the horses that you "shoulda" and "coulda," as well as the ones you shouldn't have bet.

You can break the bets down by track, distance, surface. If you aren't beating small fields or off-tracks, you will know it. More likely, there are some tracks that your system/method just doesn't work well at.

The point is that you need a way to build this database EFFORTLESSLY.

And you need to ignore it for the first 1,000 races or so, until you have something meaningful to look at. Then, once you've made some discoveries, you stop betting some races but you keep handicapping them to verify your findings.


This is how you move from being a "non-winner" to a winner. Most players simply will not do the work.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[traynor]

For further description of what I am talking about, read the 2nd post in this thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=92962

THIS is how you imp[rove your play.

Imagine that you play 3 days per week, just 20 races per day. That is 60 races per week. At the end of a year you have handicapped 3,000 races.

This is not just 3,000 races in a database, it is 3,000 races handicapped the way you handicap!

You can look at your winners. You can look at the horses that you "shoulda" and "coulda," as well as the ones you shouldn't have bet.

You can break the bets down by track, distance, surface. If you aren't beating small fields or off-tracks, you will know it. More likely, there are some tracks that your system/method just doesn't work well at.

The point is that you need a way to build this database EFFORTLESSLY.

And you need to ignore it for the first 1,000 races or so, until you have something meaningful to look at. Then, once you've made some discoveries, you stop betting some races but you keep handicapping them to verify your findings.


This is how you move from being a "non-winner" to a winner. Most players simply will not do the work.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

An addendum: Building a database of past handicapped races implies that the method used to make selections is stable from race to race. To be of value, a method that selects Horse A in June should--if the race is analyzed again in July--pick the same selection.

Specifically, if the selection method contains subjective choices that may vary from race to race in significance or emphasis based on inconsistent decision-making processes, it is an extended record of unique, single events rather than a database.

For example, an "unconscious bias" toward a particular entry for some subjective reason ("Early speed is taking all the sprints today") may cause dismal recent races to be ignored in favor of a more impressive race way back. Unless the criteria used to compare one entry against another are applied consistently--with a specific set of "rules" applied objectively, not according to subjective impressions at the moment of handicapping--much of the value of a database of handicapped races is lost.

Pace line selection methods are especially prone to muddled results. When "representative" pace lines are chosen selectively and subjectively, rather than consistently, long-term analysis is much less useful.

[pktruckdriver]

An addendum: Building a database of past handicapped races implies that the method used to make selections is stable from race to race. To be of value, a method that selects Horse A in June should--if the race is analyzed again in July--pick the same selection.

Specifically, if the selection method contains subjective choices that may vary from race to race in significance or emphasis based on inconsistent decision-making processes, it is an extended record of unique, single events rather than a database.

For example, an "unconscious bias" toward a particular entry for some subjective reason ("Early speed is taking all the sprints today") may cause dismal recent races to be ignored in favor of a more impressive race way back. Unless the criteria used to compare one entry against another are applied consistently--with a specific set of "rules" applied objectively, not according to subjective impressions at the moment of handicapping--much of the value of a database of handicapped races is lost.

Pace line selection methods are especially prone to muddled results. When "representative" pace lines are chosen selectively and subjectively, rather than consistently, long-term analysis is much less useful.


Couldn't have said it better

[raybo]

Okay, enough of this nonsense.

Time for me to respond since (as Patrick seems to think) this is such good advertisement for my product.

First, I have been hearing forever that if anyone had anything that worked, they would never sell it. Therefore, if something is for sale it must have no value.

If that is the case, then why would you ever buy a single book on horse racing?


But wait! There's more! If nothing of value would ever be sold, then it follows that it certainly wouldn't be given away for free!

Again, if that is the case, why would anyone listen to what anyone else has to say about handicapping? I mean, logically, why would anyone give away handicapping ideas of value (or even little "nuggets") for free?


Let's get serious here... people DO buy books and they DO listen to other handicappers opinions. LOL - There is hardly a horseplayer to be found that is shy about sharing an opinion on how to beat the game.

Ask yourself how YOU learned about the game. If I were a gambling man (that's humor) I'd be willing to bet that most of the people here have read one or more books that have shaped their handicapping strategies and core beliefs. Most people here have, at one time or another, listened to what some well-known handicapper had to say and the CHOSE to LEARN from it.

The question always boils down to who you should listen to and who should
be put on ignore when it comes to handicapping logic. It is really that simple.

Feel free to choose to put me on your ignore list if you feel I have nothing worthwhile to say. We always have that choice.

Here was my original quote, and it is completely in context:


History of NewPace
(Those of you who feel that nothing of value is ever sold or given away may choose to not bother reading any more. After all, what could you possibly gain?)

1. Before NewPace
I originally developed NewPace for me. I had been a "dynamic modeler" for years. That is, I built a model of "races like this one" on the fly. That model was reasonably tight:

Same Track
Same Surface
Same Distance
Similar Track Condition
Same Approximate Age
Similar Pace Pressure (Thank you, Randy Giles)
+/- 2 Months of the Year

I then queried the system to answer a simple question: "What factors have best indicated what a winning horse looks like in a race like this?" (Thanks go here to Tom Brohamer for his original concept: The Brohamer Model.)

This methodology worked for me for several years. (It still works, BTW.) One reason it works is that not too many people do something like this.

Over the years I tried many other approaches but, in the end, I came back to my dynamic approach every time because nothing was as consistent and self-correcting.


2. The Beginning of NewPace
When I hit upon the idea that almost every single race ultimately boiled down to a battle between early horse(s) and late horse(s) I thought I had discovered the absolute answer.

NewPace was very powerful, right from the very beginning. It allowed me to get horses that conventional pace handicapping just could not find. Many of these horses were at significantly higher than average prices, too.

At this point I had no intention of introducing NewPace to the world.


3. Intermediate NewPace
About 30,000 races into NewPace testing/tinkering, I became convinced that the approach was very good but would never take me where I wanted to go: namely, playing 90% of all races, with multiple horses per race.

It was a good methodology, but not good enough for ME. That was when I decided that I could share it with the world. (I admit to a less-than-altruistic motive here.) BTW, I shared it first with my inner-circle of HSH users - wrote some code to help them, taught them how to use it, etc. They helped me improve it.


4. NewPace for Sale
Once I announced that I was working on NewPace as a product for sale, I went to work to make the product better. I really do try to give the customer/client the best shake for his money.

It was during the pre-sale development that I made some interesting discoveries. These discoveries made NewPace more viable as a tool for ME. There were times that I seriously considered refunding everyone's money and keeping it to myself.

My logic was almost in agreement with the concept that nobody sells something good. I would say that nobody knowingly sells something good enough to make a living with for $77, $777 or even $7,777.

But it was definitely worth $77.


5. NewPace Develops
NewPace continued to develop.

In this slide from the NewPace Advanced workshop, I highlighted the issues and problems that NewPace users were facing with the original product.

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/NewPace/NPAdv-Issues.png

These are the issues that I set out to solve for myself, and for ALL NewPace users.

NewPace Advanced addressed all of these.


My Responsibility: Honor and Integrity Matter
I have already admitted that I am not a purely altruistic person. Profit, business and common sense do play a part.

However, just so we are clear, I recognize that I DO have a reasonable level of responsibility to continue helping my customers and purchasers after the purchase.

I DO NOT owe them a lifetime of research to improve their handicapping.

I DO NOT owe them access to every discovery that I make.

I DO NOT owe them unlimited access to technical support for a book or video.

However, I DO owe them a fair shake. I owe them an opportunity to purchase, at a reasonable cost, the results of research I do.

It is safe to say that not everyone I have ever dealt with is a happy camper. Only in some perfect world could that happen. (Imagine, by John Lennon, playing in the background.)

Nevertheless, these are the ideals that I strive to achieve.


Thanks for listening. I suggest that we put this thread to bed.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: Oh, I assure you that black boxes DO exist. How do you think all those whales beat the game?

I agree with Dave, yes there are turnkey programs out here. Are they free? Nope. Are they reasonably priced? If by "reasonable" you mean, do they cost less than what you make with them? Yep. Why would someone sell such a program? The answer is "Why not?". Once you've invested several decades in such an endeavor, and you "make your mark" or accomplish your goal, what else is left? Leaving a legacy, is a very good reason. Helping others is another one. Why not just give it away? Because some such programs produce the same selections, so the odds you receive would be compromised, so asking for remuneration for less profit received on the wagers you currently make using the program yourself, is a no-brainer.

Dave has given away many things in the past and will surely give away more in the future, but you can't just keep giving things away that are of value, to you. That's the way you go broke. I've been down the same road, I've helped many people, giving away things of value, but there comes a point where, if you give away too much, you give away everything, including your current profit.

"Turnkey" IMO, is not the same as "Black Box", but there are similarities. One can have a program, with rules, and requires updating and continual testing, that is "turnkey" and close to being a "black box", in the literal.

The question was about "turnkey". The answer is "Yes".

[raybo]

Whatever happened to that old saying which goes..."If you really love what you do for a living...then you won't have to 'work' a day in your life"? :)

When you make this number of bets, and all the stress involved, and invest this much time in the operation, even something you love to do becomes a tremendous grind and a brain busting "job". Been there, done that. Why do you hear of people "burning out"? Is it because they didn't love what they were doing? Not necessarily, I loved this game, at one time, now I tolerate it, but still love the challenge and creating things that everyone says can't be done.

One must step outside the box they live in, in order to see what is truly possible, before they have the right to say that something is not possible. Most people have never and will never, step outside that box. It's easier for them to just say it can't be done.

Patrick is a prime example, he has never stepped outside that box he lives in, and almost assuredly, doesn't have what it takes to be profitable in this game, with HSH, RDSS, or anything else out there. He just doesn't have it, and at this point in his life, has almost zero chance of ever having it.

[thaskalos]

When you make this number of bets, and all the stress involved, and invest this much time in the operation, even something you love to do becomes a tremendous grind and a brain busting "job". Been there, done that. Why do you hear of people "burning out"? Is it because they didn't love what they were doing? Not necessarily, I loved this game, at one time, now I tolerate it, but still love the challenge and creating things that everyone says can't be done.

One must step outside the box they live in, in order to see what is truly possible, before they have the right to say that something is not possible. Most people have never and will never, step outside that box. It's easier for them to just say it can't be done.

Patrick is a prime example, he has never stepped outside that box he lives in, and almost assuredly, doesn't have what it takes to be profitable in this game, with HSH, RDSS, or anything else out there. He just doesn't have it, and at this point in his life, has almost zero chance of ever having it.

Dave Schwartz asked the hypothetical question:

"How much would you be willing to pay for a "black box" method which I could prove could produce a profit of $20,000 a month?"

I asked him why he would ever consider selling such a method...and he replied that he considers having to bet every day as "having a job" -- even if he is confident that he could make $20,000 a month doing it -- and he prefers not to exchange his time for money, if he can help it.

I disagreed with him then...and I disagree with him now.

I have worked at plenty of jobs in my life...and betting on the horses does not compare to any of them.

I understand the uncertainty and the stress associated with serious gambling because I have dealt with these aspects for many years now...but if I had a method capable of producing a profit of $20,000 a month for me...then I would consider myself the luckiest person in the world -- from a "career" standpoint anyway...

And I wouldn't sell it at any price.

I have been gambling seriously for 30 years...and I can honestly say that I have never been bored once.

Scared, plenty of times...but never bored.

And I can't say that about any other "job".

Those who say that betting on horses is "like a job"...have probably never held down a "real" job in their lives.

And I admire them for it. :)

[raybo]

An addendum: Building a database of past handicapped races implies that the method used to make selections is stable from race to race. To be of value, a method that selects Horse A in June should--if the race is analyzed again in July--pick the same selection.



Not true, if one's database is "dynamic" meaning that the database is constantly updated with new races and results. It also isn't true because the total environment that existed in June may not exist in July, weather for one thing, different horses, jockeys, trainers, surface conditions, etc.. While not as different as say January to March, June to July is still not the same total environment. And of course, the same race cannot be run in June and July, all races are unique and are only run once, and if the database isn't "dynamic" between June and July, then the winner the database put you on in June, very well may not win in July.

"Static" databases are only valid for a certain period of time, after which, if not continually updated, will become invalid.

[raybo]

Those who say that betting on horses is "like a job"...have probably never held down a "real" job in their lives.

And I admire them for it. :)

Those who say betting on the horses is like a job, could very well feel like they are the luckiest person in the world, and also feel like it was a "job". And saying that people who say that, "have probably never held down a "real" job in their lives", is, well, insulting to say the least. If you call working in a gas station, and the shipping receiving dept of a major department store at the same time, while also going to college full time, or investing 8 years of ones life in the military during Viet Nam, or being the production manager responsible for the output of over 100 employees in the custom millwork industry, with all the stress that involves, or driving an 18 wheeler, over the road, from the Mexican border into Canada, and the East coast to the West coast, and being responsible for the total upkeep and required remodeling of over 40 rental properties, doesn't qualify as "real" jobs, I would like to know what a "real" job is.

Believe me when I say that, playing full time, producing livable profit from racing, is the toughest, most mind numbing "real job" I've ever had, and I've had a few of those in my life.

I know you may not have aimed that post at me, specifically, but that still doesn't make it any less insulting, in any sense.

[thaskalos]

Those who say betting on the horses is like a job, could very well feel like they are the luckiest person in the world, and also feel like it was a "job". And saying that people who say that, "have probably never held down a "real" job in their lives", is, well, insulting to say the least. If you call working in a gas station, and the shipping receiving dept of a major department store at the same time, while also going to college full time, or investing 8 years of ones life in the military during Viet Nam, or being the production manager responsible for the output of over 100 employees in the custom millwork industry, with all the stress that involves, or driving an 18 wheeler, over the road, from the Mexican border into Canada, and the East coast to the West coast, and being responsible for the total upkeep and required remodeling of over 40 rental properties, doesn't qualify as "real" jobs, I would like to know what a "real" job is.

Believe me when I say that, playing full time, producing livable profit from racing, is the toughest, most mind numbing "real job" I've ever had, and I've had a few of those in my life.

I know you may not have aimed that post at me, specifically, but that still doesn't make it any less insulting, in any sense.

My friend, I go out of my way NOT to be insulting...and I regret that you took my comments personally.

I was not referring to you when I said what I said...and I fully acknowledged your point about the stress associated with trying to make a living at the track.

My disagreement was with DAVE SCHWARTZ...who implied that betting on the horses was "like a job"...even if he made $20,000 a month doing it.

Now, if Dave says to me that he is insulted by my comments...then I will offer him my sincere apology; but I will continue to disagree with him on this issue.

And you don't have to tell me what it feels like to play the horses for a living; I have been doing it since 2004, when my wife passed away...and having to care for a 5 year-old son prevented me from continuing on at my regular job.

The horses and poker provide me with all of my income at this time...and I have no complaints at all, careerwise...

I "work" when I want...and my son couldn't be happier.

The only negative is that I can't brag about what I do to my family and friends.

I tell them that I am a "speculative investor"...

[lamboguy]

My friend, I go out of my way NOT to be insulting...and I regret that you took my comments personally.

I was not referring to you when I said what I said...and I fully acknowledged your point about the stress associated with trying to make a living at the track.

My disagreement was with DAVE SCHWARTZ...who implied that betting on the horses was "like a job"...even if he made $20,000 a month doing it.

Now, if Dave says to me that he is insulted by my comments...then I will offer him my sincere apology; but I will continue to disagree with him on this issue.

And you don't have to tell me what it feels like to play the horses for a living; I have been doing it since 2004, when my wife passed away...and having to care for a 5 year-old son prevented me from continuing on at my regular job.

The horses and poker provide me with all of my income at this time...and I have no complaints at all, careerwise...

I "work" when I want...and my son couldn't be happier.

The only negative is that I can't brag about what I do to my family and friends.

I tell them that I am a "speculative investor"...when my mother used to introduce me to her friends, she used to tell them that i am well rounded, i bet on ballgames, horseracing and poker!

for the record i am down to just horseracing the past 30 years, and i am probably going to have to give that up pretty soon as well if i keep losing my friendly adw's.

[thaskalos]

when my mother used to introduce me to her friends, she used to tell them that i am well rounded, i bet on ballgames, horseracing and poker!

for the record i am down to just horseracing the past 30 years, and i am probably going to have to give that up pretty soon as well if i keep losing my friendly adw's.

I am afraid that I will soon have to part with horse racing too, Lamboguy...

The product Monday to Thursday has deteriorated so much, I can hardly find any worthwhile bets anymore during those days.

Luckily...I find that the poker tables are unusually "live" lately...now that these hyper-aggressive online players have no games available for them to play.

Like you say...it pays to be "well-rounded"...:)

[lamboguy]

I am afraid that I will soon have to part with horse racing too, Lamboguy...

The product Monday to Thursday has deteriorated so much, I can hardly find any worthwhile bets anymore during those days.

Luckily...I find that the poker tables are unusually "live" lately...now that these hyper-aggressive online players have no games available for them to play.

Like you say...it pays to be "well-rounded"...:)there's better action owning, selling and running horses these days if you can live with the pitfalls.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thaskalos & Raybo,

I understand where both of you are coming from.

My position is that if I have to be somewhere at a certain time most days, that is called a j-j-job. I don't like j-j-... you know the j-word.

I was not offended by Thaskalos' comment; it was his opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[raybo]

Thaskalos & Raybo,

I understand where both of you are coming from.

My position is that if I have to be somewhere at a certain time most days, that is called a j-j-job. I don't like j-j-... you know the j-word.

I was not offended by Thaskalos' comment; it was his opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I think what Gus is saying is that, his personal experience is the only thing he is referencing. It's great that he can play, when he wants, and make enough cash to support himself through racing. The vast majority of players who support themselves with racing profits, spend many hours per day with it, which, for most people, is called "work", and "work" for pay, is called a "job".

[thaskalos]

I think what Gus is saying is that, his personal experience is the only thing he is referencing. It's great that he can play, when he wants, and make enough cash to support himself through racing. The vast majority of players who support themselves with racing profits, spend many hours per day with it, which, for most people, is called "work", and "work" for pay, is called a "job".

No...that's not what I meant when I said that I play only when I want.

I play 5 days a week and 48 weeks a year...and I handicap until 4 AM.

Because I don't use computers to assist me, I probably spend a lot more time doing "grunt" work than most other players do.

But I absolutely LOVE IT...so it doesn't seem like work to me.

When I said that I only play when I want, I meant that I can manage to be at home whenever my son needs me for any reason...and I doubt that I could do that with a "real" job.

I know all about the stress of having to gamble for a living, Raybo...

And I also know all about the stress of having to work at a job you dislike -- or even hate -- while dealing with all the "politics" associated with most work environments.

I prefer the stress associated with things that I love.

Professional gambling is not for everyone...and, of course, the same could be said about any number of occupations.

But it suits my temperament fine...and I hope to do is for as long as I am able...

[Dave Schwartz]

Thaskalos,

What you describe is similar but in many ways vastly different than my situation.

I LOVE my "job." I really enjoy the software, making videos, teaching, all of it.

I do not punch any real time clocks - although I work a very intense 4.5 day week. But if I decide I want to take a week off, (like next week) I just do it.

My income is directly proportionate to the effort I put into my work. Trading (say) 35-40 hours per week of what I do now for playing full time is just not an even trade for me. The money might be the same, but the pressure would not be.

As you know, playing is very intense. I love playing... just not every day, to pay the bills.

I do admit that in these difficult economic times I am considering it more and more often as an alternative in slow times.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Handiman]

Dave how about a Bed and Breakfast in your house. I would stay there again...and gladly pay $10 or $15 a night....

Thanks for all the info you provide and all the insight. Interesting reading Thask's stuff too.


Handi:)

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - Can I charge a little extra for the crab?

[Handiman]

Thank goodness I didn't get crabs... But I carry ointment with me just in case. :lol:

Now if you're talking about them eatin kind....heck go ahead and tack on another 2 or 3 bucks for sure.

Handi:)

[Dave Schwartz]

Snow crab - same as last time?

[lsosa54]

Dave how about a Bed and Breakfast in your house. I would stay there again...and gladly pay $10 or $15 a night....

Thanks for all the info you provide and all the insight. Interesting reading Thask's stuff too.


Handi:)

Dave: HSH must be treating you well. Opening a new B & B and getting your name on a college building in NYC. I pass the place every day on the way home from work and every time I see it, I get this urge to graffiti "New Pace" on the wall. Does Beth think you are a fashion plate?

[Dave Schwartz]

I prefer the term "trend setter."
:lol:

[traynor]

Not true, if one's database is "dynamic" meaning that the database is constantly updated with new races and results. It also isn't true because the total environment that existed in June may not exist in July, weather for one thing, different horses, jockeys, trainers, surface conditions, etc.. While not as different as say January to March, June to July is still not the same total environment. And of course, the same race cannot be run in June and July, all races are unique and are only run once, and if the database isn't "dynamic" between June and July, then the winner the database put you on in June, very well may not win in July.

"Static" databases are only valid for a certain period of time, after which, if not continually updated, will become invalid.

You missed the point. In building models, every tweak in approach esentially changes past results of implementing that model. The result of applying a current model in July cannot be combined with the result of applying a different model in June in any meaningful way. Specifically, the reference was to changes in the model used, rather than to races run in June or July. If the same races from June were handicapped again in July, the selections should be the same. If they are not, the notion of "modeling" the results is ludicrous.

[traynor]

Specific reference:
"An addendum: Building a database of past handicapped races implies that the method used to make selections is stable from race to race. To be of value, a method that selects Horse A in June should--if the race is analyzed again in July--pick the same selection."

My apologies for creating confusion where none was intended. I should have made it more explicit that I was referring to the same race(s) (from June) analyzed again, rather than to different (current July) races.

[raybo]

Specific reference:
"An addendum: Building a database of past handicapped races implies that the method used to make selections is stable from race to race. To be of value, a method that selects Horse A in June should--if the race is analyzed again in July--pick the same selection."

My apologies for creating confusion where none was intended. I should have made it more explicit that I was referring to the same race(s) (from June) analyzed again, rather than to different (current July) races.

In a database of races and results, if you have exactly the same races and results, in the database, in July that you had in June, then yes, you would get the same picks. But then, that database wouldn't be "dynamic", ie: removing old races when adding new ones.

The beauty of smaller dynamic databases is that, as things change at a particular track, the dynamic database picks them up sooner, and the selections are affected sooner, so you don't realize the changes after it's too late to capitalize on that information.

[Dave Schwartz]

The beauty of smaller dynamic databases is that, as things change at a particular track, the dynamic database picks them up sooner, and the selections are affected sooner, so you don't realize the changes after it's too late to capitalize on that information.

I would not be too quick to shift gears because of perceived changes.

There is a question of whether or not things have really changed or it is just an aberration.

[raybo]

I would not be too quick to shift gears because of perceived changes.

There is a question of whether or not things have really changed or it is just an aberration.

I understand what you're saying but it takes the database a few days to really affect a dramatic change. This database method has been working great in my RS program, the main advantage of this type database is keeping the database "time of year and time of meet" current. We don't want to be using data from winter meets, in the summer, for example.

Of course, our track specific databases only collect a small number of factors, mainly pace pressure/# of early horses and which types of running styles win the majority of these pace pressure races, as well as early fractional velocities for determining what early horses have the early velocities to compete for the lead in individual races, for early matchup eliminations, etc...

[Dave Schwartz]

I understand what you're saying but it takes the database a few days to really affect a dramatic change.

My experience is that changes of less than weeks (or even months) is often just an aberration.


Just my opinion.


Dave

[raybo]

My experience is that changes of less than weeks (or even months) is often just an aberration.


Just my opinion.


Dave

Agree, but in the case of specific pace pressure readings, per race, there may be none of a particular pace pressure reading for several days (I have 20 groups of PPGs) so, the changes take place rather slowly for most PPG groups. Like I said, the main advantage is in keeping the database time sensitive (temperature, weather, same horses, same trainers, same jockeys, etc.. Consistency in the running of races, of specific PPG groups, is what I'm after). I've been testing many tracks for 8 months now and this approach is working as I believed it would. So far, so good.

This stuff is a takeoff on Randy Giles PPG work, I've just taken it a few steps further, by including more than just "early or late", I now have specific running styles and early speed points/velocities that are pointed to for win contenders, rather than simply early or late horses, that become advantaged by a race's PPG calculation. It's not rocket science, just a little more detailed and specific than what Randy is doing.

But, Randy gets the credit for getting me moving in this direction, for win/the "picks"/exacta/quinella and to a lesser extent trifecta/superfecta/high 5 play.

[Helles]

I'd be interested to get Raybo and Dave's response to a question.

If one wanted to see what type of runners (E, EP, etc.) were winning say, 5-6f sprints races at Arlington on the poly. How many past races would you examine to get your answer? (This assumes you thought such an examination had value.)

With an eye towards determing a bias toward a running style, is recency more important? Are more races to confirm a possible bias more important? Are track conditions too ephemeral to even bother?

So this isn't considered thread drift, I better mention a black box. Would Dave's black box calculate this factor?

Thanks.

[raybo]

I'd be interested to get Raybo and Dave's response to a question.

If one wanted to see what type of runners (E, EP, etc.) were winning say, 5-6f sprints races at Arlington on the poly. How many past races would you examine to get your answer? (This assumes you thought such an examination had value.)

With an eye towards determing a bias toward a running style, is recency more important? Are more races to confirm a possible bias more important? Are track conditions too ephemeral to even bother?

So this isn't considered thread drift, I better mention a black box. Would Dave's black box calculate this factor?

Thanks.

I don't know for sure, but I believe at least one of Dave's functions would probably address that. My program tells you which running styles and early speed point ranges are winning the majority of sprint or route races, dirt or turf, broken down by the actual PPG calculation of a particular race being handicapped for live play. And yes, my program is a true black box, with specific contender picks (betting multiple horses to win), minimum odds requirements, and play/no play notifications.

[Dave Schwartz]

If one wanted to see what type of runners (E, EP, etc.) were winning say, 5-6f sprints races at Arlington on the poly. How many past races would you examine to get your answer? (This assumes you thought such an examination had value.)


Within HSH (as you know) we have a function known as "the Pick Master." PkM takes a filtered sample of races and determines which factor(s) are most important in something, such as highest IV in the top two ranks, highest $net in the top three, etc.

Typically, this function is run "dynamically," before each race. I have experimented with many different values for sample size, with his few as five and as many as 200. Eventually, I concluded that a good target was 50 races, and the minimum should be 15.


With an eye towards determing a bias toward a running style, is recency more important? Are more races to confirm a possible bias more important? Are track conditions too ephemeral to even bother?

As I see it, there are basically two choices: (1) recent model and (2) pace shape of race.

Recent Model
if you believe the recent model theory, then you think that the profile of the winning horse is based upon something that changes very often, even from day to day.

Pace Shape
If you believe the pace shape theory, then you think that the profile of the winning horse is based primarily upon the mix of horses' running styles in the race.

I subscribe to the theory that pace shape is superior. My reasoning is that often what we perceive as changes in the bias are actually caused by an aberration in the shapes of the recent races.

Therefore, in my dynamic approach to using our Pick Master, I use the following factors to locate races:

*Same track, surface, distance
*Similar pace shape (+/- 3 ES points: Giles method)
*+/- 2 months of the year
*Similar age (young or old; "young" = 2-year-olds and three-year-olds before May)

My target is the last 50 races, but I will play with as few as 15. (Note: I will go back seven years to find similar races.)

Occasionally, this results in finding too few races to study. This is especially true, the more obscure the meet, the distance, or the shape itself. For example, finding four-Furlong races with little or no pace pressure is very difficult, as is finding enough races at SA-6.5f on the turf.


So this isn't considered thread drift, I better mention a black box. Would Dave's black box calculate this factor?

Another alternative is to build separate static systems for each track-surface-distance-shape. By "static" I mean unchanging.

You, Helles, will learn about this on August 11 and 12th.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Helles]

Thank you both for your thoughtful and informative replies.

[Dave Schwartz]

If anyone is interested in seeing the "Turn-Key System," they should consider signing up for tonight's HSH webinar because you will see it in action.

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/153814626

[raybo]

Within HSH (as you know) we have a function known as "the Pick Master." PkM takes a filtered sample of races and determines which factor(s) are most important in something, such as highest IV in the top two ranks, highest $net in the top three, etc.

Typically, this function is run "dynamically," before each race. I have experimented with many different values for sample size, with his few as five and as many as 200. Eventually, I concluded that a good target was 50 races, and the minimum should be 15.




As I see it, there are basically two choices: (1) recent model and (2) pace shape of race.

Recent Model
if you believe the recent model theory, then you think that the profile of the winning horse is based upon something that changes very often, even from day to day.

Pace Shape
If you believe the pace shape theory, then you think that the profile of the winning horse is based primarily upon the mix of horses' running styles in the race.

I subscribe to the theory that pace shape is superior. My reasoning is that often what we perceive as changes in the bias are actually caused by an aberration in the shapes of the recent races.

Therefore, in my dynamic approach to using our Pick Master, I use the following factors to locate races:

*Same track, surface, distance
*Similar pace shape (+/- 3 ES points: Giles method)
*+/- 2 months of the year
*Similar age (young or old; "young" = 2-year-olds and three-year-olds before May)

My target is the last 50 races, but I will play with as few as 15. (Note: I will go back seven years to find similar races.)

Occasionally, this results in finding too few races to study. This is especially true, the more obscure the meet, the distance, or the shape itself. For example, finding four-Furlong races with little or no pace pressure is very difficult, as is finding enough races at SA-6.5f on the turf.




Another alternative is to build separate static systems for each track-surface-distance-shape. By "static" I mean unchanging.

You, Helles, will learn about this on August 11 and 12th.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I agree with Dave, race shape is superior, IMO. We share much of the same criteria ie: track, distance, surface, similar race shape (Giles modified), but we only database the most recent 20-30 cards (12 or more such race shape races is optimum for meaningful data). We have separate databases for each track we play, but these track specific databases are updated continuously, removing the oldest cards and replacing them with the newest, keeping our pre-determined database size constant. I like about 24-26 cards for most tracks, some however, require more because of a smaller average number of races per card.

When the race shape count for a particular race shape is low, we proceed with caution, as the small sample is not very meaningful. The willingness to pass poor races is important with our program.

[Helles]

Raybo, it sounds like you have an interesting program. I've been following your posts for years.

Tonight, Dave gave his "Turn-key" seminar and I have to say I was impressed. I want to test this thing to death. If it works, it really is Turn-key. Dave ran 30 consecutive races and was profitable.

No handicapping involved. Push a couple of buttons and there are your contenders and bets. A few rules to follow that might require pushing a button to add another horse, but that's as complicated as it gets.

Great concept. Let the testing begin.

[Helles]

Oops, too late to edit. When I said above, "...30 consecutive races...", I meant consecutive by post time. He skipped a few races with too many first time starters. Too many for NewPace that is.

[pktruckdriver]

Just in case Y'all forgot, the poll was pretty conclusive about there being no turn key system , out there.

Does this mean people like Raybo, and a few others may not have their own spreadsheet system that does turn them a profit, I am sure there are a few.

I need not remind people of my time with , well we know, but turn key it was not, that much I am sure.

I currently do okay, better now with what I use, but still never found and most likely will not find a turn key system in my life.

I paid a few people enough $$$$ for one, but then we also know about that, sad kinda, ( My gullibility and trusting nature), but hey, maybe the turn key was not there when I was there, especially if it was just now put out there for the public to see, meaning that what was there was not a turn key system, just my thoughts, anyone else think that.

I mean this thread keeps going , I could not help but let my opinions be known, otherwise people may think I went soft, or better yet, died, not true, I AM ALIVE AND WELL.

Let me wish all of you luck with finding a turn key system, no matter who sells it to you, even him, let me know , let us all know, some of us think we deserve one, but enough....

patrick

[Helles]

A poll solicits opinions. If one had taken a poll 600 years ago and asked how many people thought the world was flat, it too would have been 'pretty conclusive'. However, their opinion did not make the world flat.

I am not ready to declare this a turn-key system. I am reporting about a new idea Dave has proposed. I think I made it pretty clear that I intended to test it. Thoroughly. My preliminary thoughts are, this will get somebody damn close. I think to get over the hump, one will have to do some additional tweaking. I could be wrong. But the concept is new and in my opinion, worthy of comment and worthy of study.

Even though I am in the Black Box Impossible Camp, it would be foolish of me to close my mind and not commit any study to such an intriguing idea.

[Dave Schwartz]

Seminar Videos are available now.

Download (http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/HSHInsider/HSH_Insider-0007/HSHI-007-TurnkeySolution.html)

Watch in your browser (http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/HSHInsider/HSH_Insider-0007/)

Watch on The Horse Handicapping Authority (http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/episode-7-hsh-insiders-club/)

[Dave Schwartz]

Oops. Bad link. Here is the right one.


Seminar Videos are available now.

Download (http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/HSHInsider/HSH_Insider-0007/HSHI-007-TurnkeySolution.html)

Watch in your browser (http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/HSHInsider/HSH_Insider-0007/HSHI-007-TurnkeySolution.html)

Watch on The Horse Handicapping Authority (http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/episode-7-hsh-insiders-club/)

[PaceAdvantage]

Just in case Y'all forgot, the poll was pretty conclusive about there being no turn key system , out there.

Does this mean people like Raybo, and a few others may not have their own spreadsheet system that does turn them a profit, I am sure there are a few.

I need not remind people of my time with , well we know, but turn key it was not, that much I am sure.

I currently do okay, better now with what I use, but still never found and most likely will not find a turn key system in my life.

I paid a few people enough $$$$ for one, but then we also know about that, sad kinda, ( My gullibility and trusting nature), but hey, maybe the turn key was not there when I was there, especially if it was just now put out there for the public to see, meaning that what was there was not a turn key system, just my thoughts, anyone else think that.

I mean this thread keeps going , I could not help but let my opinions be known, otherwise people may think I went soft, or better yet, died, not true, I AM ALIVE AND WELL.

Let me wish all of you luck with finding a turn key system, no matter who sells it to you, even him, let me know , let us all know, some of us think we deserve one, but enough....

patrickOptions #1 and #3 make the poll ridiculous to start with, considering they both mean pretty much the same thing. Way to stack the poll. Along with professional handicapper, please don't consider pollster to be a viable career choice.

And why would anyone think you died? More nonsense. You just posted pictures of yourself form the Arlington meet.

The fact is, you're hopeless when it comes to this topic. You just can't help yourself. No matter how many times people tell you the problem is YOU, you won't take their advice and actually CHANGE YOU. You will continue to put the blame on everyone else as to why you aren't winning.

So many people on this board have taken the time to tell you exactly what your problem is, and 99.9% of those people weren't named Dave Schwartz and have nothing to do with Dave Schwartz. Yet he is the windmill at which you continue to focus and tilt aimlessly.

You came here over two years ago and proclaimed RDSS was the way, the truth, and the light. I'll ask you...are you a consistent winner now? How much more money have you made with RDSS as opposed to HSH? Orders of magnitude more? Has it changed your lifestyle yet?

[raybo]

Raybo, it sounds like you have an interesting program. I've been following your posts for years.

Tonight, Dave gave his "Turn-key" seminar and I have to say I was impressed. I want to test this thing to death. If it works, it really is Turn-key. Dave ran 30 consecutive races and was profitable.

No handicapping involved. Push a couple of buttons and there are your contenders and bets. A few rules to follow that might require pushing a button to add another horse, but that's as complicated as it gets.

Great concept. Let the testing begin.

I have no doubt Dave's "turn-key" system will be profitable (our programs are similar enough, in approach, that they both will operate in the black longterm for most players), if, and only if, you follow the rules that are supplied with the program. My RS program also has rules, and I can guarantee you, if you play the program as a true "black box", and you DO NOT follow the wagering rules, you will definitely NOT be profitable longterm.

That is not to say that a few users are able to turn a profit by modifying the rules, these players could turn almost any system into a profitable one.

RS is track specific and some tracks just don't pay enough, on average, to use the RS program as it is. Most of those lower than average payout tracks, however, can be played profitably with a little "tweaking" of the rules. These tracks require the user to do some "outside the box" thinking, and the fact is that most players cannot think "outside the box".

So, in both cases, mine and Dave's, I think it fair to say that some players will be profitable and some will not, simply because some can follow rules and others cannot, and some can operate "outside the box" while others cannot.

"pktruckdriver" is one of those gamblers that I can almost guarantee, won't or cannot, follow rules, therefore he is doomed to longterm failure.

[Dave Schwartz]

Raybo,

Thank you. I hope you take the time to watch the video.

What I demonstrated was not track specific. In fact, there is a lot that can be improved.

It was simply pitting the (typically) 2 early horses against the 2 late horses --- That's what NewPace does --- and using the Renegade Handicapper system to decide who the best wagers were.

Making it track-surface-distance specific would be an improvement but takes quite a lot more work. That will be the subject of our big "Secret Seminar" coming up in August. (For HSH users only.)


Dave

[raybo]

Raybo,

Thank you. I hope you take the time to watch the video.

What I demonstrated was not track specific. In fact, there is a lot that can be improved.

It was simply pitting the (typically) 2 early horses against the 2 late horses --- That's what NewPace does --- and using the Renegade Handicapper system to decide who the best wagers were.

Making it track-surface-distance specific would be an improvement but takes quite a lot more work. That will be the subject of our big "Secret Seminar" coming up in August. (For HSH users only.)


Dave

Dave, just giving respect where respect is due. It is obvious, to most, that you are one of the very few who really know this game.

I started RS with the knowledge that specific tracks, and specific types of races, run differently and will vary in profitability. That is the basis for the workbook.

I also knew that specific race pace shapes, and those horses involved, will determine who is advantaged and who is not.

Add a few eliminations, some verification for the resulting rankings, and some wagering rules, and you have a powerful method.

[pktruckdriver]

Seminar Videos are available now.

Download (http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/HSHInsider/HSH_Insider-0007/HSHI-007-TurnkeySolution.html)

Watch in your browser (http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/HSHInsider/HSH_Insider-0007/)

Watch on The Horse Handicapping Authority (http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/episode-7-hsh-insiders-club/)


Is this offer even extended to me, my curiousity has me wanting to see, and I did pay my dues, and never got refunded (sorry about that, but it is true, and I'm ok with it, just stating it) , just kicked out ( for not being able to learn and play well with others, and oh yeah become profitable), even thou I am happy where I am, and since this is the newest and latest, which all the others were, when they came out, including NewPace, but hey, maybe this time, is that how I am to think, just asking, in a polite way, not a sarcastic way, honest. ( Y'all beat me down enough, but I don't go away easily)

Bossman, you really needed to get in here, didn't you, this had nothing to do with you, and I am not bad mouthing anyone, just asking a question and stating my opinion , which I think I am allowed to do, and I am very civil about it too, wishing all well and honestly hoping them profitability, as I hate no one that much I would wish them to fail, even him, or anyone else for that matter, because we both know the publicity from my posts are good no matter , as people are interested in what I am saying now, don't know why, but he knows and so do you, and yet here I am back in this, but before you , Bossman, get down on me, as you seem to everytime, chill out man, let have my say and then let it go, as so many others do, I left this thread alone for months, but it kept going and going, so yes I came back and put in my opinion, nothing more, and wishing all well, and hoping , honestly , that they have now found the profitable system, because I still would like to have one, but have decided, for me it may not be there, but some day I may still find it, but most likely on my own, if I ever do, so enjoy.

My post had lots of his links and selling , so it can't be that bad for his business, since anyone who dislikes me , goes to him, yet I can not get my cut from this , oh well, best of luck, to all.


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Options #1 and #3 make the poll ridiculous to start with, considering they both mean pretty much the same thing. Way to stack the poll. Along with professional handicapper, please don't consider pollster to be a viable career choice.

And why would anyone think you died? More nonsense. You just posted pictures of yourself form the Arlington meet.

The fact is, you're hopeless when it comes to this topic. You just can't help yourself. No matter how many times people tell you the problem is YOU, you won't take their advice and actually CHANGE YOU. You will continue to put the blame on everyone else as to why you aren't winning.

So many people on this board have taken the time to tell you exactly what your problem is, and 99.9% of those people weren't named Dave Schwartz and have nothing to do with Dave Schwartz. Yet he is the windmill at which you continue to focus and tilt aimlessly.

You came here over two years ago and proclaimed RDSS was the way, the truth, and the light. I'll ask you...are you a consistent winner now? How much more money have you made with RDSS as opposed to HSH? Orders of magnitude more? Has it changed your lifestyle yet?



Man alot of bad mouthing from the Bossman, yet this post alone has had almnost 15000, views, amazing how many wanted to see this, no matter what was said and how many bashed me for my opinion, 15000 views, are alot, and good advertising, for anyone psoting there stuff here, so chill out with the pk trashing bossman, I here it okay, but my opinion will be said, and yes I am very happy with RDSS and do pretty well in the Contest's you have here, not the best but I hold my own with the time I have to cap and drive 600 miles a day, but no excuses here , not anymore, I am very happy with RDSS, and still have HSH, since I bought it, just do not download anymore the data for it, at 130.00 a month too much, unless there was a system where you could click a few button and make enough to opay for the data usage, wait a turn key system, naw , but with RDSS I am doing well and paying less for my data and making the moeny to far it too, wow, who'd thunk it, abd drive my truck too, whoopppeee doooo, how bout that.


This should be about how well I am doing now, using RDSS, and please go there and see, for free, you get a 30 day trial, and it is in full color too, very nice and fun program, please tell me I sent you, I''ll get nothing for it, honest, but the program is fun and easy to use, hekc I use it very well, that should say something, right Bossman, and this trucker, follows the road and keeps trying to win and have fun too, and say what you will about me on here, as it is your website, and I think a very nice site at that, but say the wrong thing, or talk bad about NYRA, which I did, and it seems that I was right, as the top excutives were shitcanned, becuase of inproprietary actions, too me criminal, but they get away free from charges, but yet I still love NYRA racing, some of the best in the country, I love playing NYRA tracks, but does it mean I needed to like the top people running it, no it did not, I never did like crooks, my opinion, or cronies, which ever , maybe both, and I said so here on your website, like it or not, seem I was right about them


Have a good day, and watch out on the road because you never know where I will be , as last week I was IN Reno for a few days, a few weeks before that I was in NYC, so look for me, I may be in your rear view window.

I have over 1.5 million safe miles behind me, I do my job safely and seroiusly, and yes, speak my mind, no matter what you may think, I thank you for allowing me to do so, but , chill out man, He is very happy that he has 15000 views for his business, that was why I thought a little RDSS should also get in the fray, they are very good people there, as was the Dave at HSH, he too was , yes was very good to me, I'll admit that, but now I am where I am, and happy. I am not blaming anyone here, yet go ahead think it, if it makes you feel better, I am responsible for me, I paid for many things, and very few of them worked for me, except RDSS, which works extremely well for me, heck a 24.80 winner at Parx, using RDSS, go here and see
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=81325#post81325

This is the stuff we do over at RDSS, to help us learn , and it is so much fun too, please come over and see, we are very happy over there and willing to help you learn and win , isn't that what it is all about.

ENjoy your day, all


Patrick

[raybo]

Man alot of bad mouthing from the Bossman, yet this post alone has had almnost 15000, views, amazing how many wanted to see this, no matter what was said and how many bashed me for my opinion, 15000 views, are alot, and good advertising, for anyone psoting there stuff here, so chill out with the pk trashing bossman, I here it okay, but my opinion will be said, and yes I am very happy with RDSS and do pretty well in the Contest's you have here, not the best but I hold my own with the time I have to cap and drive 600 miles a day, but no excuses here , not anymore, I am very happy with RDSS, and still have HSH, since I bought it, just do not download anymore the data for it, at 130.00 a month too much, unless there was a system where you could click a few button and make enough to opay for the data usage, wait a turn key system, naw , but with RDSS I am doing well and paying less for my data and making the moeny to far it too, wow, who'd thunk it, abd drive my truck too, whoopppeee doooo, how bout that.


This should be about how well I am doing now, using RDSS, and please go there and see, for free, you get a 30 day trial, and it is in full color too, very nice and fun program, please tell me I sent you, I''ll get nothing for it, honest, but the program is fun and easy to use, hekc I use it very well, that should say something, right Bossman, and this trucker, follows the road and keeps trying to win and have fun too, and say what you will about me on here, as it is your website, and I think a very nice site at that, but say the wrong thing, or talk bad about NYRA, which I did, and it seems that I was right, as the top excutives were shitcanned, becuase of inproprietary actions, too me criminal, but they get away free from charges, but yet I still love NYRA racing, some of the best in the country, I love playing NYRA tracks, but does it mean I needed to like the top people running it, no it did not, I never did like crooks, my opinion, or cronies, which ever , maybe both, and I said so here on your website, like it or not, seem I was right about them


Have a good day, and watch out on the road because you never know where I will be , as last week I was IN Reno for a few days, a few weeks before that I was in NYC, so look for me, I may be in your rear view window.

I have over 1.5 million safe miles behind me, I do my job safely and seroiusly, and yes, speak my mind, no matter what you may think, I thank you for allowing me to do so, but , chill out man, He is very happy that he has 15000 views for his business, that was why I thought a little RDSS should also get in the fray, they are very good people there, as was the Dave at HSH, he too was , yes was very good to me, I'll admit that, but now I am where I am, and happy. I am not blaming anyone here, yet go ahead think it, if it makes you feel better, I am responsible for me, I paid for many things, and very few of them worked for me, except RDSS, which works extremely well for me, heck a 24.80 winner at Parx, using RDSS, go here and see
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=81325#post81325

This is the stuff we do over at RDSS, to help us learn , and it is so much fun too, please come over and see, we are very happy over there and willing to help you learn and win , isn't that what it is all about.

ENjoy your day, all


Patrick

Patrick,

Looked at the post you linked. Why are you betting every race, even when your picks are low odds. If you aren't using a very good oddsline, what justifies betting the low priced horses? If you are using a very good oddsline, why bet win and place? Why not just win only? Or, why not exacta instead. With all the wagers you are placing on multiple horses to win and place, you will have to hit some very good priced horses, consistently, to overcome all your wager costs.

It appears you have very little self control when it comes to the wagering portion of your play. Don't feel alone, many players place all their concentration on the handicapping side of the game, even when they have been told that handicapping is only part of playing the game.

This is why I stated in my earlier post that you are doomed to failure. If you can't follow some simple wagering rules, you cannot hope to be profitable. That is not opinion, that is fact.

[Tom]

Woodbine just had a seminar on wagering - you can listen on line.
The speaker seemed well informed and quite dapper.

[ldiatone]

Woodbine just had a seminar on wagering - you can listen on line.
The speaker seemed well informed and quite dapper.


was that Tim Y? aka z...46 on PA?

[Dave Schwartz]

Patrick,

First, my goal is not to re-capture you as a customer.

You are a registered own of HSH and therefore, able to contact HDW and use the product any time you like.

I am pleased to hear that you are doing so well with RDSS and I wish you continued success. To the extent that the Renegade Handicapper might help you achieve your goals I would be pleased to offer it to you at no cost if you think you would get use from it.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick,

First, my goal is not to re-capture you as a customer.

You are a registered own of HSH and therefore, able to contact HDW and use the product any time you like.

I am pleased to hear that you are doing so well with RDSS and I wish you continued success. To the extent that the Renegade Handicapper might help you achieve your goals I would be pleased to offer it to you at no cost if you think you would get use from it.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Thank You Dave

I am very happy at RDSS, but let me say that I still hang with a few HSH users, and may well take you up on your offer, later this summer if I take a few weeks off, if not then, definetely this winter as I am set to update all my programs and such, so again thank you.

I wish you well, and hope Bossman can put up with us being civil !!

And if I can stop NYRA bashing, now that they were all tossed out, lol.


Patrick

[Tom]

was that Tim Y? aka z...46 on PA?

Yes, and kudos to him for doing it!

[Dave Schwartz]

As of right now, our website, TheHorseHandicappingAuthority.com is down. Trying to determine why.

The store (http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/) is still available.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Dave Schwartz]

We're back.

[PaceAdvantage]

Man alot of bad mouthing from the Bossman, yet this post alone has had almnost 15000, views, amazing how many wanted to see this, no matter what was said and how many bashed me for my opinion, 15000 views, are alot, and good advertising, for anyone psoting there stuff here, so chill out with the pk trashing bossman, I here it okay, but my opinion will be said, and yes I am very happy with RDSS and do pretty well in the Contest's you have here, not the best but I hold my own with the time I have to cap and drive 600 miles a day, but no excuses here , not anymore, I am very happy with RDSS, and still have HSH, since I bought it, just do not download anymore the data for it, at 130.00 a month too much, unless there was a system where you could click a few button and make enough to opay for the data usage, wait a turn key system, naw , but with RDSS I am doing well and paying less for my data and making the moeny to far it too, wow, who'd thunk it, abd drive my truck too, whoopppeee doooo, how bout that.


This should be about how well I am doing now, using RDSS, and please go there and see, for free, you get a 30 day trial, and it is in full color too, very nice and fun program, please tell me I sent you, I''ll get nothing for it, honest, but the program is fun and easy to use, hekc I use it very well, that should say something, right Bossman, and this trucker, follows the road and keeps trying to win and have fun too, and say what you will about me on here, as it is your website, and I think a very nice site at that, but say the wrong thing, or talk bad about NYRA, which I did, and it seems that I was right, as the top excutives were shitcanned, becuase of inproprietary actions, too me criminal, but they get away free from charges, but yet I still love NYRA racing, some of the best in the country, I love playing NYRA tracks, but does it mean I needed to like the top people running it, no it did not, I never did like crooks, my opinion, or cronies, which ever , maybe both, and I said so here on your website, like it or not, seem I was right about them


Have a good day, and watch out on the road because you never know where I will be , as last week I was IN Reno for a few days, a few weeks before that I was in NYC, so look for me, I may be in your rear view window.

I have over 1.5 million safe miles behind me, I do my job safely and seroiusly, and yes, speak my mind, no matter what you may think, I thank you for allowing me to do so, but , chill out man, He is very happy that he has 15000 views for his business, that was why I thought a little RDSS should also get in the fray, they are very good people there, as was the Dave at HSH, he too was , yes was very good to me, I'll admit that, but now I am where I am, and happy. I am not blaming anyone here, yet go ahead think it, if it makes you feel better, I am responsible for me, I paid for many things, and very few of them worked for me, except RDSS, which works extremely well for me, heck a 24.80 winner at Parx, using RDSS, go here and see
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=81325#post81325

This is the stuff we do over at RDSS, to help us learn , and it is so much fun too, please come over and see, we are very happy over there and willing to help you learn and win , isn't that what it is all about.

ENjoy your day, all


PatrickWell, I guess you could have simply answered the question with "yup, I'm still working for a living, so no, FOR ME, RDSS can't be much better than HSH." Your lack of detail in your response was telling. You wrote a lot, but said little in regard to just how good you're doing with RDSS compared to HSH.

Anyway, I believe you once said long ago that you were going to stop posting the same thing over and over and over and over again about HSH. When are you ever going to live up to your word?

You're a piece of living SPAM...and as board mod, it's my job to let you know that.

How many times should I let you tell the same old story? Should I put a little spot on the home page with your picture, your truck, and a crying towel?

[raybo]

Upon re-reading my post I mentioned no names, ya'll are putting names in there for me, not me.

But the name you mentioned, I spent thousands of dollars there, including data downloads, and by Gawd I should have every right to say what I want to say, what gives you the right to deny me the right ???

I never got a penny back, never will I, nor should I, some say I should, yes plenty tell me this, and I guess if I did , I would go away, but I paid heavily for this right to say what I want, respectfully, and tactfully, giving my oipnion as I did watse alot of my $$$ trying something, which was a big failure for me, yet currently I am winning with my current tools, RDSS being one of them, and a few others things too, I am happy now, where before I was chastised and crucified by , someone, called a loser and things that are not repeatable here, I am only excersising my right to voice my opinion, which I paid for , that is all.

Have a Happy April Fools Day


Patrick

Patrick,

Did HSH or New Pace come with a guarantee of profitability? Of course not. But, you still bought it anyway. Now, you want to bash the program and it's creator just because YOU can't make a profit with it. There are many who testify that they are profitable with it.

The reason handicapping/wagering programs don't come with a guarantee is that some players just don't have what it takes to use the software. You are one of those.

Accept that act and you will be a whole lot better off, and you might even start making better decisions regarding the way you use any software.

Until you gain some self control, and quit expecting someone to give you profitability, you will never be profitable long term. Many of us had been playing this game for decades before we became profitable and many of us were already good gamblers. That tells you that the game is not for everyone. You can either accept that you aren't cut out for horse racing or you can continue being one of the 98% that give your money to the 2% who are profitable.

It's really that simple. Personally, I hope you keep playing.

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick,

Did HSH or New Pace come with a guarantee of profitability? Of course not. But, you still bought it anyway. Now, you want to bash the program and it's creator just because YOU can't make a profit with it. There are many who testify that they are profitable with it.

The reason handicapping/wagering programs don't come with a guarantee is that some players just don't have what it takes to use the software. You are one of those.

Accept that act and you will be a whole lot better off, and you might even start making better decisions regarding the way you use any software.

Until you gain some self control, and quit expecting someone to give you profitability, you will never be profitable long term. Many of us had been playing this game for decades before we became profitable and many of us were already good gamblers. That tells you that the game is not for everyone. You can either accept that you aren't cut out for horse racing or you can continue being one of the 98% that give your money to the 2% who are profitable.

It's really that simple. Personally, I hope you keep playing.


Raybo Raybo Raybo, enough already, why you are just now rehashing this, I do not know, I am happy where I am, I stated my opinion, we all know it, what is the purpose that you are bringing it up again, I moved on, have you?

Have you really read my posts, I mean really read them, do so and then ask me if you mis-understand me , which it sounds like you are doing, but so many have stated to me what you now are doing, does it make you feel better to get your .02 cents in, I hope so, I heard it all before, thanks for your post.

Patrick

[raybo]

Raybo Raybo Raybo, enough already, why you are just now rehashing this, I do not know, I am happy where I am, I stated my opinion, we all know it, what is the purpose that you are bringing it up again, I moved on, have you?

Have you really read my posts, I mean really read them, do so and then ask me if you mis-understand me , which it sounds like you are doing, but so many have stated to me what you now are doing, does it make you feel better to get your .02 cents in, I hope so, I heard it all before, thanks for your post.

Patrick

My 2 cents were meant to help bring you to your senses. Whatever dude.

[PaceAdvantage]

I moved on, have you?No you haven't. If you had, you wouldn't have brought it up again, for the 10th time at least...

[headhawg]

Raybo Raybo Raybo, enough already, why you are just now rehashing this, I do not know, I am happy where I am, I stated my opinion, we all know it, what is the purpose that you are bringing it up again, I moved on, have you?

Have you really read my posts, I mean really read them, do so and then ask me if you mis-understand me , which it sounds like you are doing, but so many have stated to me what you now are doing, does it make you feel better to get your .02 cents in, I hope so, I heard it all before, thanks for your post.Moved on? Your post on 7/10 suggests otherwise. Nobody misunderstands you. You're being passive aggressive. In fact, you're the reason I didn't go to Arlington. Let's just say that I didn't want to ruin anyone's time by having to deal with you.

You give PA a lot of crap but if I were him you would have been banned long ago. And don't bother PMing me telling me I'm an a-hole again.

[pktruckdriver]

Is this the post about the pick 6 maker , I thought this was piracy?

It's a fairly decent app & found it better then the DRF with more options, but not worth $97. Ended up just recreating it in Excel


But maybe I am jealous I could not do it myself.


Rule #1 Do not drink and post !!


Patrick

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't tell me all this Dave S. drama has made you start hitting the bottle harder...let it go man!

BTW, instead of harping on how Dave doesn't cut it for you, why not educate some of us on some of the things that do work, and why.

Start with a new thread about RDSS.

[JBmadera]

This thread is like herpes.....it just won't go away.

[Dave Schwartz]

Since this thread popped back up, I will just add that PK is back in the fold as a valued customer.

He is back to learning and seems to be enjoying his time with the "Live Play Boys" at Handicapping Live, 24-7, our Skype group.

[lsosa54]

I'm glad the saga is over but what happened to:

"yet currently I am winning with my current tools, RDSS being one of them, and a few others things too". Guess you just added back HSH?

[pktruckdriver]

I'm glad the saga is over but what happened to:

"yet currently I am winning with my current tools, RDSS being one of them, and a few others things too". Guess you just added back HSH?


For the record it was and always will be a tool in my handicapping box, Rdss2 is still a wonderful tool, as is HSH too, and sometimes I will use Brisnet PP generator, when I am in the mood for the older DRF type of pp's, and Pace Appraiser, by Randy Giles.

Look in on the Skype group and see my picks when Live play is being done, and the same can be said of RDSS2 , they have a monthly Contest, teaching you how to better use and develop a winning method there too.

Both groups are different, yet have one thing in common, they are all horse players trying to hone their skills, by helping each other, sharing what they can to help others learn and win, great people all of them, no matter how inmature I may be or act, these people are there and they too may have their quirks, but who doesn't. Stop by and check it out, please.

This message is approved by me

[lsosa54]

Patrick: Can't argue with any of that. I'm glad it has started to come together for you. Lou

[Capper Al]

I have developed my own system and have output to my own specification as I see that I need it. Even with my own system, it is not turnkey. I have to watch the tote-board to find plays.

[Capper Al]

Look in on the Skype group and see my picks when Live play is being done, and the same can be said of RDSS2 , they have a monthly Contest, teaching you how to better use and develop a winning method there too.

This message is approved by me

Are any of these Skype groups open to the public?

[dkithore]

Are any of these Skype groups open to the public?

Yes, Dave S.'s skype group is and he has invited people to join in, if I recall. Pl. contact him.

Dk

[raybo]

I have developed my own system and have output to my own specification as I see that I need it. Even with my own system, it is not turnkey. I have to watch the tote-board to find plays.

I would think that, unless your system has the capability to grab live odds, then waiting for live odds, to determine a pass/play on individual horses, would not take it out of the realm of "turnkey".

IMO, "turnkey" means that there is no "handicapping" involved. Watching the tote board, IMO, is not handicapping, whether the system watches it or you watch it. As long as the system has rules on what odds are acceptable, then in my mind the system could still qualify as a turnkey system.

Maybe Dave has a different take on this?

[raybo]

Yes, Dave S.'s skype group is and he has invited people to join in, if I recall. Pl. contact him.

Dk

Although I haven't taken advantage of that, yet, but I think doing so, for almost anyone, would be a positive thing for their play. I can't see any negatives, unless possibly, you have a winning system already and the approaches offered in the group contradict your own approach. In that case, there could be some negatives, but those negatives could probably be dealt with easy enough.

Collaboration and coaching, especially for the non-expert/new player (and even some struggling old-timers, assuming they aren't too set in their ways and are open to new ideas), is almost essential to becoming profitable. I was one of the lucky ones and was introduced to the game and coached by a very knowledgeable player from the very beginning. A great asset!

[Capper Al]

I would think that, unless your system has the capability to grab live odds, then waiting for live odds, to determine a pass/play on individual horses, would not take it out of the realm of "turnkey".

IMO, "turnkey" means that there is no "handicapping" involved. Watching the tote board, IMO, is not handicapping, whether the system watches it or you watch it. As long as the system has rules on what odds are acceptable, then in my mind the system could still qualify as a turnkey system.

Maybe Dave has a different take on this?

It could just be a matter of definition. For me, it was input data, crunch the numbers, and make your bets.

[Dave Schwartz]

I would think that, unless your system has the capability to grab live odds, then waiting for live odds, to determine a pass/play on individual horses, would not take it out of the realm of "turnkey".

IMO, "turnkey" means that there is no "handicapping" involved. Watching the tote board, IMO, is not handicapping, whether the system watches it or you watch it. As long as the system has rules on what odds are acceptable, then in my mind the system could still qualify as a turnkey system.

Maybe Dave has a different take on this?

Dave DOES have a different take.

The goal of most HSH users is to develop their own "black box" of handicapping.

I do not see where "automatic play" and "automatic betting" is part of a "turn-key" system.

I question that an automated system would actually work today - considering how inaccurate the post times are. In order to make timely wagers you MUST actually watch the horses nearing the gate.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[raybo]

Dave DOES have a different take.

The goal of most HSH users is to develop their own "black box" of handicapping.

I do not see where "automatic play" and "automatic betting" is part of a "turn-key" system.

I question that an automated system would actually work today - considering how inaccurate the post times are. In order to make timely wagers you MUST actually watch the horses nearing the gate.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Makes sense, and is what I meant, I guess. If one of the keys to success is "value", then one must make sure that value is there, and the only way you know that is by monitoring the odds on your selection(s) and comparing it to some method of probability of success. That is not part of "handicapping" that is part of "wagering". In my mind they are distinct.

To me, a "turnkey" system, in whatever vehicle you choose, be it horse racing, or business, etc., says, "Here, use this and follow the rules (that are either ingrained in it, or accompany it), and you will be successful".

By the way Dave, I listened to the interview you did with the professional gambler, and I was truly impressed, by your questions and remarks, as well as his. It so mirrored my thinking, regarding racing and poker, and golf, etc., etc., that I had a smile on my face throughout the entire interview. I knew what he was going to say before he said it. It is seldom that one experiences that, especially regarding racing.

I just want to thank you for taking the time to do that, and hope that every gambler that wants to be successful, or more successful, listens to it. It's the truth and the light!