skipaway100
03-31-2012, 07:19 AM
FormScore.Com's Race Of The Week - Florida Derby.
#1 Fort Loudon - Ran a new top 47 FormScore Trip-Adjusted Speed Figure in January, but regressed. Will need a forward move to compete in this, unlikely. Another promising horse ruined by a heavy 2-year old workload from Stanley Gold.
#2 News Pending - Romans had trouble with this one last fall, but the kinks seem to be out, followed up a decent turf performance (44) with a second move forward (46). Could move again, but still a bit outclassed next to the favorites.
#3 Take Charge Indy - Patrick Byrne is back. Solid figures on the synthetics last fall (45-47), didn't take to the dirt right away, but a huge performance (49) at Gulfstream a couple months ago. If there's going to be an upset today, my chips rest here.
#4 Neck N' Neck - Promising horse, with a 44 as a two-year old. He's already put up a 46 here and the pattern isn't all that bad looking. Could run a good race and catch the back end of the exotics at a price.
#5 Z Camelot - 40 top, and on turf. Completely outclassed here.
#6 Union Rags - Absolute pristine pattern and development. All the way up to the 52 in the BC Juvenile, he paired it up in his 3-yo debut. Could have used another weeks rest coming into this IMO, but a well deserved favorite and absolute serious Ky Derby player.
#7 Bartolome - 42 top. Another with zero chance.
#8 El Padrino - The other Pletcher candidate has exploded onto the scene this winter. Nothing in his pattern to discourage me from giving him a big shot here.
#9 Reveron - Eligible to hit the back end of the exotics with a 46 route top, and solid pattern entering this.
The morning line makers have this race pegged IMO with the correct lineup of 6-8-3. My major disagreement would be with the #4 Neck N' Neck who has a legit chance to move forward to a figure around 50 and catch a piece of the exotics (or pull of a shocker if he can catch the perfect trip while the others don't).
Thanks and Good Luck!
#1 Fort Loudon - Ran a new top 47 FormScore Trip-Adjusted Speed Figure in January, but regressed. Will need a forward move to compete in this, unlikely. Another promising horse ruined by a heavy 2-year old workload from Stanley Gold.
#2 News Pending - Romans had trouble with this one last fall, but the kinks seem to be out, followed up a decent turf performance (44) with a second move forward (46). Could move again, but still a bit outclassed next to the favorites.
#3 Take Charge Indy - Patrick Byrne is back. Solid figures on the synthetics last fall (45-47), didn't take to the dirt right away, but a huge performance (49) at Gulfstream a couple months ago. If there's going to be an upset today, my chips rest here.
#4 Neck N' Neck - Promising horse, with a 44 as a two-year old. He's already put up a 46 here and the pattern isn't all that bad looking. Could run a good race and catch the back end of the exotics at a price.
#5 Z Camelot - 40 top, and on turf. Completely outclassed here.
#6 Union Rags - Absolute pristine pattern and development. All the way up to the 52 in the BC Juvenile, he paired it up in his 3-yo debut. Could have used another weeks rest coming into this IMO, but a well deserved favorite and absolute serious Ky Derby player.
#7 Bartolome - 42 top. Another with zero chance.
#8 El Padrino - The other Pletcher candidate has exploded onto the scene this winter. Nothing in his pattern to discourage me from giving him a big shot here.
#9 Reveron - Eligible to hit the back end of the exotics with a 46 route top, and solid pattern entering this.
The morning line makers have this race pegged IMO with the correct lineup of 6-8-3. My major disagreement would be with the #4 Neck N' Neck who has a legit chance to move forward to a figure around 50 and catch a piece of the exotics (or pull of a shocker if he can catch the perfect trip while the others don't).
Thanks and Good Luck!