Dubai World Cup

[maclr11]

Here are my selections that will come out in a special insider edition on Friday March 30th for the Dubai World Cup.
Please go and subscribe to the insider if you feel like it, you will see my weekly column along with other racing tidbits and stories from a little racetrack that tries up in the cold snows of Manitoba. They also sponsor some of the PACS and provide many of the trophies that go to the winner.

www.assiniboiadowns.com

[maclr11]

Race 2: Godolphin Mile
This is a mile race for older horses. This is a wide open affair with a couple of North American backgrounds in the field.
Picks are: 4-1-8
4. African Story- Won a grade three over the Meydan surface last time. Godolphin always brings there horses ready to go. He defeated the highly regarded Barbecue Eddie on Jan 26th and is the pick her. You can never go wrong with the flying Italian, Lanfranco Dettori. Odds- 7/2
1. Richard’s Kid- This American import has had mixed results in his Dubai career after a strong career as an American handicap horse. He is however receiving major class relief in this field. Moving out of the third leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge, the winner of that race, Capponi will be one of the favorites for the $10 million dollar Dubai World Cup. He should close late with Richard Mullen aboard. Odds- 12/1
8. Western Aristocrat- The 2011 Jamaica Handicap winner has good form over the synthetics. He won a stake at Kempton racetrack in England last year and has been working beautifully in preparation for this start. Jeremy Noseda is a world class trainer and brings his horses ready to go off of long layoffs. He defeated Brilliant Speed in the Jamaica as well, who ran a bang up third in the 2011 Breeders Cup Turf. Odds-6/1
Race 3: Dubai Gold Cup
The inaugural running of this 2 mile marathon race over the Meydan turf course. A field of 13 evenly matched horses will contest the race.
Picks: 10-8-11

10. Opinion Poll: Love, love love the jockey change as Frankie Dettori leaves the eleven horse who beat Opinion Poll last time and gets on this horse for today. He is second off a long layoff and did run well going long in England last year. None of these horses will compare with the field he faced in the Ascot Gold Cup last year where he finished 2nd after racing wide and rallying from far back to catch an impressive winner. He looked like he will eat up the extra distance he is getting this time as well. Odds 3/1
8. Mikhail Glinka: This horse chose this race over the two later distance turf races. The trainer, Herman Brown choose this race because the horse should eat up the distance and the light company. He won a grade two last time out going 1 ½ on the turf. The Galileo breeding on the sire side just screams give me distance. Odds 8/1
11. Fox Hunt- The other Godolphin horse, he won the local prep over his stable mate Opinion Poll. He is 2 for 2 over this Meydan turf course and could very well get the jump again today. I do not like the jockey change but Silvestre De Sousa has won on him before. He should certainly stay the distance and be close when the running starts after the last bend. Odds 5/2

Race 4: UAE Derby
Tough race as a full field drew in. Which continent will dominate? The Americans, the Europeans, or the Locals?
Picks: 4-1-12

4. Balada Sale- Yes, I know I am taking an Argentinian filly against an international group of colts, but go watch her last two races and tell me that those don’t impress you. In the Argentinian Oaks last time out she duels every step of the way in a half mile in 45 3/5, gets headed at the top of the lane and draws off to win by eleven going a mile and a quarter. Just as impressively in the Argentinian 1000 Guineas she gets pinched back at the start and stalks the pace and draws off late to win by an unhurried four lengths. This filly is the real deal. You can see her races on YouTube, search Balada Sale or Argentinian Oaks. Odds 8/1

1. Lucky Chappy- The local hopeful, Lucky Chappy rallied last time to get beat a nose in the El Camino Real Derby to Daddy Nose Best. Daddy Nose Best came back to win the Sunland Derby quite impressively. He should handle the surface and the distance. Graham Motion will have him ready to go on race day; it’s just whether or not he can catch this filly late. Odds- 6/1
12. Red Duke- Was only beaten 4 lengths in the Dewhurst Stakes last October at Newmarket. That race featured the best two year olds in England, including the highly regarded Parish Hall. He ran better earlier in the year as a two year old and could run big after given some time to grow up. Notice the American breeding on both the top and bottom as he is a son of Hard Spun out of a Gone West mare. Odds 20/1

Race 5: Al Quoz Sprint
Do you have a need for speed? Don’t blink or you might miss this race.
Picks: 6-3-15
6. Joy and Fun- This Hong Kong invader won the 2010 version of this race. He has been off for a long time with only one 2011 start, but he has been impressive early in 2012 with a 1st and a 2nd place finish in two grade one events in Hong Kong. Brett Doyle stays aboard a horse that likes the course and should have first run on the leaders. Odds 4/1 BEST BET

3. Regally Ready- The 2011 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner flopped in his first Dubai start but don’t hold that against him. He should improve in his second start in the foreign land. He is acclimatized now, and Asmussen and co. should have him roaring and ready to go. Nakatani makes the trip over for this start and that should be a calming influence on the horse as well. Odds 6/1
15. Sole Power- The hard knocking English colt was just beaten by a short head in his return to the races over the Meydan turf course on March the 10th. Look for him to improve back to his form where he finished third in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp. If he runs his race he could be tough, but he does draw poorly in the 15 hole. Odds 10/1

Race 6: Dubai Golden Shaheen
The dirt sprint, this race will be a contest between the Americans and the Australians it appears like.
Picks: 7-9-1

7. The Factor- Bob Baffert’s freaky speed horse should outpace the rest of this field. He showed how talented he was when he won the Palos Verdes over Amazombie and the Malibu Stakes by 3 ½ in 119 4/5. The California colt has been working beautifully in Dubai and has wins over a similar synthetic track at Del Mar. They will have to catch him to beat him. Odds 3/1
9. Sepoy- The Australian colt has only lost twice in his illistrious career. He is without a doubt the second best sprinter down under. If you cannot name the best one, you probably should not be wasting your time and money playing international races. He has been dodging Black Caviar for months now and this big three year old should be able to translate his turf form into dirt form. He is a son of Elusive Quality who sired Smarty Jones among others. Odds 4/1
1. Rocket Man- The old Australian vet. He won this race last year, and was 2nd in 2010 to Kinsale King. He should be tough breaking from the rail but I am not sure he will be able to keep pace with the top two. That being said this is an experienced six year old gelding who is well traveled and knows how to win. Odds- 9/2
Race 7: Dubai Duty Free
Really tough race as there is graded stakes winners from 5 continents in this race.
Picks: 4-7-11

4. Ambitious Dragon- This Hong Kong representative has won back to back Grade 1 races. In both of those races he defeated fellow contenders Xtension and Portus Blendium. He was well bet in both of those races and he won convincingly. Ran well in the Hong Kong Cup three back having a troubled trip and being beaten a nose by Zazou for third. Odds 4/1
7. Dark Shadow-The Japanese import is 2 for 2 at the distance going the 1 1/8. He has run bang up seconds in the last two Japanese races. This race comes second off the layoff. He was one of the horses noted that looks good in the morning, and he is 9 for 11 in the top two over his career. Odds 10/1
11. City Scape- This Juddmonte entry has been running well over a mile in France and Italy and most recently in Hong Kong. He was narrowly beaten in the Hong Kong Mile and ran well in the top mile races in Europe. There will be no Goldikova in here for him to chase, so maybe he can get up with the extra eighth of a mile added. Odds 12/1
Race 8: Dubai Sheema Classic
Classic turf race, Is it going to be a classic duel to the wire.
Picks: 9-8-6

9. St Nicholas Abbey- The 2011 Breeders Cup Turf winner was impressive for Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien. He went off at 6-1 in the Turf and rolled home. He has been freshened but don’t worry about the layoff as O’Brien brings them back ready to go. His young son Joseph O’Brien will once again be on the colt. He has been right there against the top English horses last year such as Sarafina and Nathaniel. He is the choice here. Odds 2/1
8. Cirrus des Aigles- This classy French colt beat the champions So You Think and Snow Fairy in the 2011 Champion Stakes over Royal Ascot. He was only beaten two lengths in the Hong Kong Cup where he was late to gain his best stride. Last time out he was beaten only two lengths on the synthetic. If he runs back to any of his races from last summer he could be very tough. Odds 3/1
6. Treasure Beach- He very well could be the pace of the race and will try to hang around late. He is an international traveler with races at Arlington, Woodbine, Longchamp and the Curragh. He has won over 2,000,000 in his career and no one can throw out an Aiden O’Brien on the turf internationally. Jamie Spencer rides for the Grade 1. Secretariat Stakes. Odds 20/1
Race 9: Dubai World Cup
The richest race in the world, do I need to say anymore?
Picks: 7-4-14-2

7. Royal Delta- Throw out her last race, Mott just needed to get her out and let her gallop around. She stumbled at the start and ran into a complete freak in Awesome Maria. She has been the talk of the town in the morning at Meydan and she is bred to eat up the extra distance. A daughter of the Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker out of a daughter of Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy this filly has won over the synthetic at Keenland all ready and is 8 for 9 in the money. Her race in the Alabama over a mile and a quarter was impressive as well. She should stalk a major duel here and have first run. Odds- 8/1
4. So You Think- This horse is the epitome of class. He won the Cox Plate in Australia, ran third in the Melbourne Cup. He beat Workforce and Snow Fairy respectively in the Coral Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes. He ran fourth in the L’Arc de Triomphe and came over and ran a close sixth in the Breeders Cup Classic for super Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien. The question mark is the synthetic, but he will love the ten furlongs and he will stalk the duel and he is the gamest horse of this era. He will be there somewhere in the end. Odds- 5/1
14. Game on Dude- Bob Baffert’s speedy gelding ran second in the Breeders Cup Classic. He will keep rider Chantal Sutherland aboard for Bob Baffert. The question marks though are the distance as he has come up just short in 3 of his four 1 ¼ starts. He has also lost twice over the synthetics in California. He will be close to the pace early and this post could be difficult if he gets hung wide in the first turn. If he gets loose on the lead he will be tough, but the speed on the inside from the Japanese entries along with a Capponi could make it very tough for Baffert’s Dude. Odds- 3/1
2. Eishin Flash- This Japanese import will eat up the distance. The question mark is the synthetic surface, will his class and talent transfer over. He was incredible in running second in the Arima Kinen in Nakayama. He was beaten by Orfevre, the Japanese triple crown winner and Japanese super horse. If he runs that race back he could be incredibly tough. Last year’s Dubai World Cup winner was a Japanese entrant. Odds- 10/1