Statistical Database handicapping.

[Suff]

You know all these "stat" type players that get spotted out here on PA's Board.. The real smart guys...They can PROVE everything with statistics... here's one for them.

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A statitician is a person who says that, when 3 people are supposed
to be in a room but 5 came out, 2 have to go in so the room gets
empty...

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There are 3 types of lies.

1. Lies
2. damn lies
3. statistics.


Good stuff...try to work it into your arsenal. Humbles the lot.

[Larry Hamilton]

A person who uses numbers would not say, "There are 3 people in the room."

He would say, "There is likely to be 3 people in the room most of the time. Some times there will be more, and some times less. I will recalculate again soon to determine who many more or less and how often. But, most of the time when I wager there will be 3, I will be correct."

As to the "damned Lies":
Frequently, people come on here and spout stats not even knowing what they are saying is wrong. They have asked the wrong question of their number set or they have come to some unsupportable conclusions. If you are betting on their claims, I suppose it doesn't matter whether it's a lie or a mistake.

There are many important reasons to use statistical concepts in an analytic game, but one of the more important is that at the end of the year I can say, "Using this concept, say--early speed--I win 40% of my bets and late speed was only predictive in 15% of my bets. I have a method for determining what I won with, how much and how often." These are things that I cannot do with a garage filled with old DRF's, legal pad and a #2 pencil.

[Suff]

I hear yea larry. I admire your work... and others.. did you see que's post on jockey Tyler Baze.. jiminey christmas..

Look at the work these guys do... its mind boggling...

But I had that Joke collecting dust in the closet so I dusted it off and threw it up for shits and grins...

A stock analyst and a Wall Street broker went to the races. The broker suggested to bet $10,000 on a horse. The analyst was sceptical, saying that he wanted first to understand the rules, to look on horses, etc. The broker whispered that he knew a secret algorithm for the success, but he could not convince the analyst.

"You are too theoretical," he said and bet on a horse. Surely, that horse came first bringing him a lot of money. Triumphantly, he exclaimed: "I told you, I knew the secret!"
"What is your secret?" the analyst asked.
"It is rather easy. I have two kids, three and five year old. I sum up their ages and I bet on number nine."
"But, three and five is eight," the analyst protested.
"I told you, you are too theoretical!" the broker replied, "Haven't I just shown experimentally that my calculation is correct?!"

[Larry Hamilton]

oh, I get it, I am the straight man hehehehe

as to que's post, I wish I could read it but the length of it really exercises my dyslexia--my loss as he is one of the sharpest in here...

[kenwoodallpromos]

Common sense will tell you the 3 who went in the room were a midwife and 2 very pregnant women!! Now guess why 5 came out?LOL!!

[Brian Flewwelling]

Originally posted by kenwoodallpromos
Common sense will tell you the 3 who went in the room were a midwife and 2 very pregnant women!! Now guess why 5 came out?LOL!!

Similar to your 4-furlong theory/system, you make assumptions. :D But i like these assumptions.

I would like to know what is the gender of the people in the room?
How long are they in there?

What conditions are required for those going into the room?

Is the room's floor carpetted or lino?

Are all your meaurements for just this one room?

How long is the room?

Brian

;) ;)

[Dan Montilion]

What Room?

Dan Montilion

[Tom]

Is there a back door?
Is there a hidden rat hole?
Is anyone invisible?
Were the three that came out canibles?

:rolleyes:

[Lefty]

if you've heard this, well i've told it before...
A man goes to his stat man and says, "I have to take a flight. What's the odds there might be a bomb on board?"
"about a million to one," the stat man says.
"Not good enough for me."
The stat man brightens, "Then take your own bomb, the odds that there will be two on board are 3 million to one."