Que
12-27-2003, 05:46 AM
I read Steve Davidowitz's recent comments about the Southern California jockey colony with interest. Although I didn't have time to compare all his facts/observations with my own--below is my comparison regarding the first jockey he listed. Now, this isn't intended to knock Davidowitz's by any means--in fact, I really like his books and writing. However, I think his analysis just skimmed the surface, and by digging a little deeper you can get a much better understanding of a jockey's strenghts and weaknesses.
DAVIDOWITZ's comments on Tyler Baze:
"Tyler Baze: Apprentice winner from 2000 has always been good on speed types, but improved his game in 2003. Is much stronger tactically with inside rides and is better on turf as well. Very popular with many trainers and gets in the top three often, but still needs to avoid losing races he is in position to win. Good connections with Doug O'Neill, Barry Abrams, and Rafael Bacerra."
My observations/comments (all ROIs are for $1):
All Races: 3453 447-431-435 (0.841|0.781|0.763) 12.95%/13.07%
Comment: Tyler Baze has only a slightly better than average ROI (-16% win only) than the track take. His wins are slightly less than expected too, i.e. 12.95% observed vice 13.07% expected.
Early (E): 426 62-71-50 (0.863|0.923|0.805) 14.55%/15.25%
Early Presser (EP): 304 47-45-37 (0.816|0.841|0.823) 15.45%/14.90%
Early (E) & Early Speed (ES) Rank = 1: 209 35-32-25 (0.904|0.870|0.777) 16.75%/16.59%
Early Presser (EP) & ES Rank = 1: 107 20-18-13 (0.925|0.971|0.903) 18.68%/16.54%
Comments: Tyler Base's highest ROI is on Pressers (P) and Slow Sustained (SS), i.e. 1.009 and 0.933 respectively. However if you played all his mounts with the best early speed ranking his ROI drops to 0.760 in 1167 mounts. But, if you bet all his mounts with an early speed ranking of 8th or greater, you would have had a 1.147 ROI in 351 mounts.
Dirt: 2695 375-349-351 (0.839|0.782|0.770) 13.91%/14.00%
Turf: 758 72-82-84 (0.848|0.777|0.739) 9.50%/9.77%
Comments: Tyler Baze appears to be equally adept when on the dirt or the turf, i.e. he loses in accodance with the track take. But below are a few interesting nuggets about his turf mounts:
First-time (FT) turf: 154 15-11-10 (1.075|0.856|0.658) 9.74%/8.26%
Second-time (ST) turf: 116 14-6-11 (1.204|0.761|0.667) 12.07%/8.60%
Not FT/ST turf: 488 43-65-63 (0.694|0.757|0.781) 8.81%/10.53%
Comments: Tyler Baze is very good on horse's making their first or second time turf attempts; after that stay off his turf mounts.
O'Neal Doug: 346 64-55-57 (1.032|1.008|0.979) 18.50%/15.36%
Abrams Barry: 13 0-4-0 (0.000|0.992|0.565) 0.00%/11.82%
Becerra Rafael: 210 36-36-27 (0.794|0.922|0.944) 17.14%/14.98%)
Comments: True, Tyler Baze & Doug O'Neal is a good combination, but the other two? (Maybe I'm missing some mounts with Barry Abrams?)
Here's my analysis of Tyler Baze (all ROIs to win):
Tyler Baze: Average rider, 12.95% wins vice an expectation of 13.07%. Better in sprints than routes, ROI's of 0.907 vice 0.722 respectively. Best bets are at Santa Anita rather than Holloywood Park or Del Mar, with ROIs of 0.957, 0.785, and 0.708 respectively. Has a respectable ROI with horse's making changes, i.e. first-time Lasix, 1.041 (332 mounts); second time starter, 1.070 (270 mounts); first race off claim, 0.925 (190 mounts); and first time turf, 1.075 (154 mounts). Significantly better ROI when shortening a horse up, vice stretching a horse out from last race--especially in sprints! Tyler Baze is a "mudder," look for his horse's on a muddy track or when his mount is wearing mud calks; ROIs of 1.920 (20 mounts) and 1.694 (34 mounts), respectively. Never bet a Tyler Baze horse that's had a workout in the previous 1-2 days, better to bet his mounts with a workout 10-14 days prior, i.e. ROIs of 0.029 (81 mounts) and 1.336 (183 mounts), respectively. If you played every Tyler Baze horse's in a sprint that was 1st or 2nd at the 1st call in their last race your ROI would have been 0.937 (711 mounts) vice 0.825 (1195 mounts) otherwise. Tyler Baze horse's are now over bet--his ROI has only been 0.749 for the past year. If you like to bet Tyler Baze's mounts, play his horses during the months of October (1.131, 299 mounts) and November (1.154, 332 mounts). Also, try betting his mounts with these lesser known connections: Burnison E G (1.984, 6 wins in 19 mounts); Devereux Joseph A (2.160, 6 of 35); Dollase Wallace A (2.524, 8 of 29); McAnally Ron (1.315, 7 of 66); Mitchell Mike (1.110, 11 of 63); and Sadler John (1.085, 55 of 317).
Que.
DAVIDOWITZ's comments on Tyler Baze:
"Tyler Baze: Apprentice winner from 2000 has always been good on speed types, but improved his game in 2003. Is much stronger tactically with inside rides and is better on turf as well. Very popular with many trainers and gets in the top three often, but still needs to avoid losing races he is in position to win. Good connections with Doug O'Neill, Barry Abrams, and Rafael Bacerra."
My observations/comments (all ROIs are for $1):
All Races: 3453 447-431-435 (0.841|0.781|0.763) 12.95%/13.07%
Comment: Tyler Baze has only a slightly better than average ROI (-16% win only) than the track take. His wins are slightly less than expected too, i.e. 12.95% observed vice 13.07% expected.
Early (E): 426 62-71-50 (0.863|0.923|0.805) 14.55%/15.25%
Early Presser (EP): 304 47-45-37 (0.816|0.841|0.823) 15.45%/14.90%
Early (E) & Early Speed (ES) Rank = 1: 209 35-32-25 (0.904|0.870|0.777) 16.75%/16.59%
Early Presser (EP) & ES Rank = 1: 107 20-18-13 (0.925|0.971|0.903) 18.68%/16.54%
Comments: Tyler Base's highest ROI is on Pressers (P) and Slow Sustained (SS), i.e. 1.009 and 0.933 respectively. However if you played all his mounts with the best early speed ranking his ROI drops to 0.760 in 1167 mounts. But, if you bet all his mounts with an early speed ranking of 8th or greater, you would have had a 1.147 ROI in 351 mounts.
Dirt: 2695 375-349-351 (0.839|0.782|0.770) 13.91%/14.00%
Turf: 758 72-82-84 (0.848|0.777|0.739) 9.50%/9.77%
Comments: Tyler Baze appears to be equally adept when on the dirt or the turf, i.e. he loses in accodance with the track take. But below are a few interesting nuggets about his turf mounts:
First-time (FT) turf: 154 15-11-10 (1.075|0.856|0.658) 9.74%/8.26%
Second-time (ST) turf: 116 14-6-11 (1.204|0.761|0.667) 12.07%/8.60%
Not FT/ST turf: 488 43-65-63 (0.694|0.757|0.781) 8.81%/10.53%
Comments: Tyler Baze is very good on horse's making their first or second time turf attempts; after that stay off his turf mounts.
O'Neal Doug: 346 64-55-57 (1.032|1.008|0.979) 18.50%/15.36%
Abrams Barry: 13 0-4-0 (0.000|0.992|0.565) 0.00%/11.82%
Becerra Rafael: 210 36-36-27 (0.794|0.922|0.944) 17.14%/14.98%)
Comments: True, Tyler Baze & Doug O'Neal is a good combination, but the other two? (Maybe I'm missing some mounts with Barry Abrams?)
Here's my analysis of Tyler Baze (all ROIs to win):
Tyler Baze: Average rider, 12.95% wins vice an expectation of 13.07%. Better in sprints than routes, ROI's of 0.907 vice 0.722 respectively. Best bets are at Santa Anita rather than Holloywood Park or Del Mar, with ROIs of 0.957, 0.785, and 0.708 respectively. Has a respectable ROI with horse's making changes, i.e. first-time Lasix, 1.041 (332 mounts); second time starter, 1.070 (270 mounts); first race off claim, 0.925 (190 mounts); and first time turf, 1.075 (154 mounts). Significantly better ROI when shortening a horse up, vice stretching a horse out from last race--especially in sprints! Tyler Baze is a "mudder," look for his horse's on a muddy track or when his mount is wearing mud calks; ROIs of 1.920 (20 mounts) and 1.694 (34 mounts), respectively. Never bet a Tyler Baze horse that's had a workout in the previous 1-2 days, better to bet his mounts with a workout 10-14 days prior, i.e. ROIs of 0.029 (81 mounts) and 1.336 (183 mounts), respectively. If you played every Tyler Baze horse's in a sprint that was 1st or 2nd at the 1st call in their last race your ROI would have been 0.937 (711 mounts) vice 0.825 (1195 mounts) otherwise. Tyler Baze horse's are now over bet--his ROI has only been 0.749 for the past year. If you like to bet Tyler Baze's mounts, play his horses during the months of October (1.131, 299 mounts) and November (1.154, 332 mounts). Also, try betting his mounts with these lesser known connections: Burnison E G (1.984, 6 wins in 19 mounts); Devereux Joseph A (2.160, 6 of 35); Dollase Wallace A (2.524, 8 of 29); McAnally Ron (1.315, 7 of 66); Mitchell Mike (1.110, 11 of 63); and Sadler John (1.085, 55 of 317).
Que.