Ranking your handicapping methods

[sammy the sage]

Would be nice if there were clear cut organized seperate threads on each...

such as for example...my preferences...(realizing everybody is different)

1st...pace...imagine that...lone speed or speed duel...ect...

2nd...breeding for today's condition...often be much lower than this...(actually...most of the time it is)...for example...Barbaro...well bred for grass..showed good dirt affinity...how-ever...on a sloppy track for example goes here...or even #1...think...Super Saver/Mind that Mind in the Derby's for example

3rd...Trainer...connections...

4th...Class...

5th...race frequency...fitness...distance...cut back...or increase...

6th...Jock...

7th...weight...

8th...tips...yeah...I know...

9th...walk prior to race...think....(Life at Ten fiasco)....if possible

just a few...yours?

Would love to see seperate threads on each..

[dav4463]

Mine is fairly simple.

1. Speed figure pattern (to hopefully predict improvement, decline, or same)
2. Class move
3. Running style
4. Jockey
5. Odds I will accept (always looking for a longshot that I feel can peak today)

[Qstick333]

running styles/pace of the race (I consider these two to be dependent on each other)

class

horse's ability @ distance

trainer/jockey

I'm not into the breeding lines at all, just not my style.....

[Robert Goren]

1. how the track is playing
2. who will be where in the race.
3. speed rating
4. class (claiming prices mostly)
5. other assorted junk(trainers mostly)
6. odds

[misscashalot]

Would be nice if there were clear cut organized seperate threads on each...

such as for example...my preferences...(realizing everybody is different)

1st...pace...imagine that...lone speed or speed duel...ect...

2nd...breeding for today's condition...often be much lower than this...(actually...most of the time it is)...for example...Barbaro...well bred for grass..showed good dirt affinity...how-ever...on a sloppy track for example goes here...or even #1...think...Super Saver/Mind that Mind in the Derby's for example

3rd...Trainer...connections...

4th...Class...

5th...race frequency...fitness...distance...cut back...or increase...

6th...Jock...

7th...weight...

8th...tips...yeah...I know...

9th...walk prior to race...think....(Life at Ten fiasco)....if possible

just a few...yours?

Would love to see seperate threads on each..

1- The board
2- The board
3- yet again

[dav4463]

Anybody consider the morning line at the better tracks? I find my value most often comes from 6/1 or higher morning line that I rank in my top four in races with nine or less entries and top five in races with ten or more entries.

[pondman]

1. Connections with disposable cash, and an ego, who have fired their trainer.

Add: A horse with awful looking PPs, off a layoff,changing surfaces, distances. and tracks. Doesn't always need a class drop,as long as it's a known play ground. This is the type of ticket I like to cash.

2. A maiden winner. Big overlays.

3. A hose moving onto the grass for the first time on the high end. This is the only time I'll look at a rating.

[GaryG]

1. Trips with relation to race shape
2. Pace
3. Class
4. Trainer patterns

[rubicon55]

1. how the track is playing
2. who will be where in the race.
3. speed rating
4. class (claiming prices mostly)
5. other assorted junk(trainers mostly)
6. odds

Robert, I found your 1st item interesting and also I agree. I can recall so many times watching the first couple of races and watching horses not running to their par times for their class and level and yet I still find myself playing that track while ignoring the earlier signs that speed, pace, class, etc was not going to get me into the winner’s circle. I have wasted so much money fighting against this unseen scenario when pace, speed and adjusted times looked good on paper but fell flatly when the track was not behaving as predicted. Whether you want to call it the "track gods", win cycles, biorhythms, psychology, bad day, or whatever voodoo character you want to make up, LOL, etc. I should have called it a day and saved that money - alas hindsight is 20/20. In handicapping methodology I have found IMO that I, also known as me can be the biggest factor in a race to handicap before placing a wager.

[sammy the sage]

yes...a "DEAD" rail...such as Churchhill has had 3 of last 5 big events can definitely outweigh many factors...

Yielding turf on the other hand would enhance "breeding" handicapping...

I think each race at each track at each day...is in itself...an event...in which NO SET handicapping style can overcome....which means...emphasis can and DOES change for each race...for which methods should apply.