Are 134 longshots good??

[Fastracehorse]

That is what I posted on DRF this year: 134 top pick longshots ( 6-1 or more ).

I tried to do it with integrity too. That is, I posted whom I thought would win the race ( favorite or longshot ) - didn't matter the odds. I posted alot more than 134 winners - I am just talking about longshots.

Why??

I guess I like to show that my methods have life.

Two things: I didn't post the month of Nov. and I got off to an unusually slow start.

I remember quite a few longshots that I didn't have time to post this year. One that sticks out in my mind is a + $100 winner at Gulfstream I didn't post. But, thankfully I did post two of those scuds.

Good luck to all the other bombers out there!

fffastt

[JustRalph]

And the point of this post was?????

[JimG]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
That is what I posted on DRF this year: 134 top pick longshots ( 6-1 or more ).


fffastt

To answer your question...NO...You are just pulling down your own odds posting such horses on public boards and stroking your own handicapping ego.

[keilan]

You are just pulling down your own odds posting such horses on public boards and stroking your own handicapping ego.


Jim, do you really think guys like this whom post more a few thousand picks annually are wagering on their selections? For everyone he hits he's probably wrong 30 times, nobody is playing his picks.

I asked him this question October 4th,2003 after again reading about his amazing accomplishment.

"Questions for ya -- of the 120 long shots hit this year 1)how many races have you posted? 2)how many horses have you picked to finish 1st which paid $10.00 or less".

My question then, was met with a degree of hostility as I'm sure this post will garner. ;)

[JimG]

Originally posted by keilan
Jim, do you really think guys like this whom post more a few thousand picks annually are wagering on their selections?


No I don't. Seems like a big waste of time.

[Fastracehorse]

The point was a question.

Are 134 longshots good??

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<To answer your question...NO...You are just pulling down your own odds posting such horses on public boards and stroking your own handicapping ego.

What I meant was: Is a method that picks 134 longshots good??

I have noticed bets on my selections.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<Jim, do you really think guys like this whom post more a few thousand picks annually are wagering on their selections? For everyone he hits he's probably wrong 30 times, nobody is playing his picks.

Yes, I do wager on many of those winners. The two posted $100 + horses I did wager on.

1 for 30?? Random # chosing would produce a better result than 1 for 30.

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<Questions for ya -- of the 120 long shots hit this year 1)how many races have you posted? 2)how many horses have you picked to finish 1st which paid $10.00 or less".

A better question is: Of all the longshots that won at the tracks you posted, how many did you identify with your top pick??

Remember Keilan, I am at a 33% disadavantage immediately with only the public choice. What about the 2nd, 3rd, and, 4th favorites??

fffastt

[BIG HIT]

I think it is great if you made a profit.? That's all that count's at the end.And only you can if your approach is better above or at 6 to 1 or above rather then lower price horse.
Glad for you hope next year is even better.I would sure be interested in how you sort out your contender's. But happy new year to you and all other's on this board

[Larry Hamilton]

You picked 134 longshots in one year? Now you tell everyone you can pick longshots. It wont take much untill you are betting on a 4:5 longshots. How many betters do you think it takes to ruin a longshot at Penn?

Years ago, with my brother at Charlestown, I stumbled on a pick I liked at 30:1. I put 200 on this one to win. The odds immediately dropped to 15:1. My brother and his friends wanted a piece and the odds slid to 7:1. Hell, why didnt I tell every one in the joint, maybe I could have made it the favorite!!!

The point is if you and your angle are good, talking about it is going to slide you to the mean.

You want another example--ask Andy Beyer what he thinks of the profitability of his speed number. The hardest part about this game is if you have something that works--SHUT UP.

[JustRalph]

definition of a longshot? I had two $100 plus horses this year....now I understand that is a longshot.....


just wondered what your definition is?

[stgeorge]

Answer: One longshot is good if it's the only horse you played all year and you walked away a winner.

On the other hand, 200 longshots is bad if you played every race offered at your local simulcast facility and walked away decimated by year's end.

It's all relative.

[Fastracehorse]

<Glad for you hope next year is even better.I would sure be interested in how you sort out your contender's.

I started the new year yesterday - I'm at #1.

Contenders: Trainer intent, adjusted speed figures, and, projected trip.

Good Luck to you too.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<Hell, why didnt I tell every one in the joint, maybe I could have made it the favorite!!!

You learned your lesson.

I knew a guy who told a high roller about a horse - the high roller got the p-3 100 times - my friend got it 3 times. He learned his lesson the hard way.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<just wondered what your definition is?

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Personally, 6-1 isn't really a longggggggggg shot. It's a decent win mutuel.

I like a$30 horse.

It's just that there are so many players that bang chalk, and can't stop themselves, and actually think 7:2 is a longshot.

I mean those types of horses are useful, but I only get excited when I think a bomb has a chance.

fffastt

[Larry Hamilton]

Oh, I see. The point of my response to your post was to advise myself...

[Fastracehorse]

Don't think the cynicism went unnoticed :)

All The Best to your family through the holidays.

fffastt

[takeout]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
Years ago, with my brother at Charlestown, I stumbled on a pick I liked at 30:1. I put 200 on this one to win. The odds immediately dropped to 15:1.
So that was you! :D

I once saw an even thousand bet to win on a horse at CT (before simulcasting) that appeared to have no chance on paper. A real head scratcher. Over zealous owner? Bookie dumping a bet he couldn't lay off? Booster play? Who knows? The horse ran terrible, just like he looked on paper.

[Fastracehorse]

<I once saw an even thousand bet to win on a horse at CT (before simulcasting) that appeared to have no chance on paper. A real head scratcher. Over zealous owner? Bookie dumping a bet he couldn't lay off? Booster play? Who knows? The horse ran terrible, just like he looked on paper.

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That is one great thing about this game - you will see anything!

Happy Holidays.

fffastt

[kenwoodallpromos]

A longshot is any horse over 4-1 that beats mine!!

[Tom]

HTR defines a LS as paying $15 or more. Here is a link to rick's longshot chart-rates each track by how many LSs are hitting. It is updted through 11/30/03. This is good to know-you can look at the top of the list tracks for your best chances of find LSs.

http://www.homebased2.com/km/longshotchart.htm

[Fastracehorse]

I did know HTR set the mark at $15. I set mine at $14 - I don't know why.

That chart is very useful - it's nice for me to know, and other longshot players alike, that other people value the price horse.

Happy Holidays.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I know you use works in your analysis.

Works work!! :)

fffastt

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thank You! And show betting on GGF favs works too even if longshots come in in the mud!! Knowing when to take the money and run is the hard part!!

[BIG RED]

I have my own simple longshot play using JUST works and with simulcasting I can get up to 10 a day. Some of these are HUGE!!
(biggest so far $384 to win in Kentucky) MDNS is where I find the triple digit prices.
And reguarding to what Larry said 'SHUT UP', I agree. I could tell this board in one sentence how, and that would be the end of that! Happy New Year:cool:

[Fastracehorse]

<Knowing when to take the money and run is the hard part!!

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Undersanding how to make money is just as important as understanding how to pick them - you are right, it is the hard part, we wouldn't like it if it was easy :)

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Obviously you aren't afraid of a bomb or too :)

When you hit one of those beauties it does wonders for your passion towards this game.

fffastt