Pace Figures Derby Preps

[redshift1]

Just noticed the new figures, thanks.



http://www.pacefigures.com/preps12.html

[cj]

I'll be updating the older races this week so you can see what the figures looked like before the races as well. The Gotham and later are done, and the BC Juvenile as well.

[pktruckdriver]

Thank You

Any idea where this guy went ... Dullahan


SaberCat

Hansen

Daddy Knows Best

Prospective


For me it is normally the horse coming full of run the win the Derby, but there are exceptions, as Hansen does look very good, if still healthy.

And the next few weeks will tell us so much more, 1 year I am going to do the Derby Trail trip and try to catch some of these races in person, sounds fun to me.

Again thanks Guys


Patrick

[Skanoochies]

Neat stuff CJ. Thanks for letting us all have a look. Much appreciated. :ThmbUp:

[Speed Figure]

CJ, why did you change the scale of the numbers?

[cj]

CJ, why did you change the scale of the numbers?

I felt more comfortable making my own. I found several flaws with the Beyer chart. He obviously has also considering the tinkering he has done with turf and synthetic racing. I'm not criticizing him, his charts were made a long time ago using little data compared to what can be done with today's resources.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Are all the numbers going to be changed CJ?

[cj]

Are all the numbers going to be changed CJ?

Yes, at some point they will.

[cj]

The figures for last weekends races and this weekends upcoming races are posted.

[cj]

Updated (http://www.pacefigures.com/preps12.html) with the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby.

[redshift1]

Updated (http://www.pacefigures.com/preps12.html) with the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby.

On determining the race shape for the new numbers do you still use +10 or -10 or have they been reduced as well?

http://www.pacefigures.com/numbers.html

[Tom]

Notice who had a better fig than Union Rags, and combined it with the best Early speed points.

I wish I had Saturday! :(

[cj]

On determining the race shape for the new numbers do you still use +10 or -10 or have they been reduced as well?

http://www.pacefigures.com/numbers.html

That would be reduced a bit. I would say about 6 points off the top of my head.

[cj]

Figures for this weekend's upcoming preps are available here (http://www.pacefigures.com/preps12.html).

[cj]

I updated with the figures for today. The SA Derby is disappointingly slow in my opinion.

[PhantomOnTour]

I updated with the figures for today. The SA Derby is disappointingly slow in my opinion.
Especially the pace.

It's funny, they keep running and running and no one can match the two performances by Secret Circle in the Sham (2nd) and the Southwest Div2 (1st).
Depending on how one rates the Holy Bull, which was a one turn mile on a very weird day at GP that had three different track conditions, Secret Circle has an edge on them all....10f is the big question for him. Heck, maybe 9f is a question too.
It's still a mess.
I expected someone to step up today with a big time race...nope...maybe next week. Creative Cause was the one i thought would bust through but he seems kinda reluctant to battle it out in the lane; a little passive imo.
He did chase a terribly slow pace and made a nice move to lose by just a nose, but he was a disappointment to me.

[cj]

Seemed an odd time to take blinks off CC.

[maddog42]

Seemed an odd time to take blinks off CC.
I didn't notice. Maybe that had something to do with his performance. Probably not, but some horses do react to the change.

[Valuist]

Especially the pace.

It's funny, they keep running and running and no one can match the two performances by Secret Circle in the Sham (2nd) and the Southwest Div2 (1st).
Depending on how one rates the Holy Bull, which was a one turn mile on a very weird day at GP that had three different track conditions, Secret Circle has an edge on them all....10f is the big question for him. Heck, maybe 9f is a question too.
It's still a mess.
I expected someone to step up today with a big time race...nope...maybe next week. Creative Cause was the one i thought would bust through but he seems kinda reluctant to battle it out in the lane; a little passive imo.
He did chase a terribly slow pace and made a nice move to lose by just a nose, but he was a disappointment to me.

IMO those 1 mile races at Oaklawn won by a horse on or near the lead are suspect. Speed just has such a tremendous advantage in those races.

Can't help but wonder if Creative Cause had the blinkers on if he would've gone by.

Nobody is saying much about the Sunland race. Looking at the chart I was surprised that Daddy Knows Best was within a length after 6f. The runner-up in that race ran huge, IMO. Just a poorly timed ride being too close to a very fast pace.

I think the best way is to eliminate any of the races less than 1 1/8 miles. For whatever reason, the 110 yards from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles is a more difficult jump than the 220 yards from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles.

[PhantomOnTour]

IMO those 1 mile races at Oaklawn won by a horse on or near the lead are suspect. Speed just has such a tremendous advantage in those races.

Can't help but wonder if Creative Cause had the blinkers on if he would've gone by.

Nobody is saying much about the Sunland race. Looking at the chart I was surprised that Daddy Knows Best was within a length after 6f. The runner-up in that race ran huge, IMO. Just a poorly timed ride being too close to a very fast pace.

I think the best way is to eliminate any of the races less than 1 1/8 miles. For whatever reason, the 110 yards from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles is a more difficult jump than the 220 yards from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles.
Can't disagree...we will find out a whole bunch about Secret Circle in the ArkyDby.
These preps have all been very close in terms of speed figs, with the occasional fast paced affair (like the Spiral at TP...which was very fast early) and no one has distinguished himself as the colt to beat at CD.

[classhandicapper]

I've been a little reluctant to get on the Creative Cause bandwagon because he doesn't have a high percentage trainer with a history of handling high quality/Triple Crown horses.

[plainolebill]

I've been a little reluctant to get on the Creative Cause bandwagon because he doesn't have a high percentage trainer with a history of handling high quality/Triple Crown horses.

I don't know if it's because of the stock he's had but Harrington seems to have trouble getting one to go two turns much less a classic distance, so I have the same reluctance. Best luck to him at any rate.

[redshift1]

I see this weekends preps are up, thanks.

[cj]

http://www.pacefigures.com/preps12.html

Updated with the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass figures.

[Leparoux]

http://www.pacefigures.com/preps12.html

Updated with the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass figures.
Looks like one heckuva pace that Hansen had going.

[cj]

Looks like one heckuva pace that Hansen had going.

For polytrack, yes. It doesn't necessarily mean he can run that fast on the dirt and keep going like he did, but it was an impressive effort.

It is pretty tough to imagine either winner from Saturday taking the Derby if the other is in the race.

[letswastemoney]

For polytrack, yes. It doesn't necessarily mean he can run that fast on the dirt and keep going like he did, but it was an impressive effort.

It is pretty tough to imagine either winner from Saturday taking the Derby if the other is in the race.
Do you mean Hansen and Bodemeister? Cause I thought it would help Dullahan if both winners from Saturday are in.

[cj]

Do you mean Hansen and Bodemeister? Cause I thought it would help Dullahan if both winners from Saturday are in.

Yes, I misspoke, sorry. I know a lot of people are dismissing Dullahan because he hasn't won on dirt, but before Saturday, I had the BC Juvy as his best race.

[cj]

http://www.pacefigures.com/preps12.html

Updated with the upcoming Jerome and Lexington figures. Maybe not a lot of Derby horses here, but surely some will appear later in the the Triple Crown.

[cj]

Updated with figures from today's races.

[cj]

Derby (and Oaks) figures are now available here (http://www.pacefigures.com).

[Bubbles]

A great tool as always. Thanks CJ!

[Tom]

Say goodnight, Hansen.

[Leparoux]

Say goodnight, Hansen.
Say goodnight, Bodemeister then too right?

[Tom]

Same negative pattern with him.

[Bettowin]

Thanks for the link. Comparing this year's Derby numbers to last year, this year's numbers are low across the board. Did something change in the process? I can't imagine this year's horses are that much worse. I must have missed something.

[Tom]

New scale - not Beyer.

[Bettowin]

New scale - not Beyer.

Thanks. Figured it was something like that:)

[tribecaagent]

Is it me or does Dullahan look pretty good?

Somebody smart please advise.

[Valuist]

Summer Applause certainly looks like a contender. 15-1? Is Battaglia on crack?

[Valuist]

Is it me or does Dullahan look pretty good?

Somebody smart please advise.

His only big fig was on Poly. Toss.

[cj]

His only big fig was on Poly. Toss.

I personally don't think it is that easy. He is an improving 3yo that had run his best race on dirt prior to the BG. He may be an underlay, but I consider him a contender.

[Bubbles]

Am I crazy for liking Prospective a little bit? Strikes me as a very similar horse to Daddy Nose Best, only at twice the price. I don't think either win, but both have the potential to be the late-running closer that crashes the exotics after the race falls apart behind the winner.

[tribecaagent]

I personally don't think it is that easy. He is an improving 3yo that had run his best race on dirt prior to the BG. He may be an underlay, but I consider him a contender.

Thanks for your input CJ. From my interpretation, Dullahan has: a)never taken a backward step, b)ran his two-year-old top >on dirt, c)is the fastest closer in a race that figures to be quick up-front.

Obviously, I'm not a subscriber of your figures. This is why I asked for a person "in-the-know" for their opinion. Thanks again.

[Valuist]

I personally don't think it is that easy. He is an improving 3yo that had run his best race on dirt prior to the BG. He may be an underlay, but I consider him a contender.

Maybe figure wise but watching the replay of his race in the BC, he was never a factor and picked up the pieces for a clunk up 4th. In both his Kee wins, he benefitted from a blazing pace. His fig may not say so but his turf race at GP was probably his most visually impressive race. The winner was a loose on the lead wire winner and Dullahan made a big move 4 wide on the far turn. I loved him in the BG but I thought the pace suited him and that Poly is his best surface.

Gotta take a stand somewhere. If he's in the exacta, I will lose money.

[depalma113]

Summer Applause certainly looks like a contender. 15-1? Is Battaglia on crack?


I hope the rest of the world buys what Battaglia is selling.

Summer Applause should be one of the top 3 choices.

[peeptoad]

Maybe figure wise but watching the replay of his race in the BC, he was never a factor and picked up the pieces for a clunk up 4th. In both his Kee wins, he benefitted from a blazing pace. His fig may not say so but his turf race at GP was probably his most visually impressive race. The winner was a loose on the lead wire winner and Dullahan made a big move 4 wide on the far turn. I loved him in the BG but I thought the pace suited him and that Poly is his best surface.

Gotta take a stand somewhere. If he's in the exacta, I will lose money.

I agree, however I'll probably use Dullahan if the track comes up sloppy.
On paper he appears to prefer synth. He may handle dirt, but there are others who handle it better imo that won't also have to weave through as much traffic.

I'm not convinced the addition of Trinniberg is going to throw the pace out of whack. There seems to be a pretty even mixture of early speed, pace and sustained runners this year, and Trinniberg (even at sprint distances) has not been putting up the early pace figures that some of the others have been (e.g. Hansen).
The short version: I don't expect this year's Derby to wind up being Spanish Chestnut redux.

[The WindfallAngler]

Am I crazy for liking Prospective a little bit? Strikes me as a very similar horse to Daddy Nose Best, only at twice the price. I don't think either win, but both have the potential to be the late-running closer that crashes the exotics after the race falls apart behind the winner.

Not altogether. At the price we're likley to be getting, he belongs. Boxcars....

[School of Forego]

Not altogether. At the price we're likley to be getting, he belongs. Boxcars....

You're both crazy:cool:

[MNslappy]

per CJ's figs, the best late pace numbers at 9 furlongs

UR - 91
BOD - 86
TCI - 84
DUL - 83
HAN - 82
DNB - 81

[peeptoad]

I agree, however I'll probably use Dullahan if the track comes up sloppy.
On paper he appears to prefer synth. He may handle dirt, but there are others who handle it better imo that won't also have to weave through as much traffic.

I'm not convinced the addition of Trinniberg is going to throw the pace out of whack. There seems to be a pretty even mixture of early speed, pace and sustained runners this year, and Trinniberg (even at sprint distances) has not been putting up the early pace figures that some of the others have been (e.g. Hansen).
The short version: I don't expect this year's Derby to wind up being Spanish Chestnut redux.

Man, I was wrong on all counts, except for the fact that Trinniberg was not setting those fractions. :P

[cj]

I think it is pretty clear I blew the SA Derby figure, but then again, so did everyone else. I thought about it long and hard the day after the race, but I just couldn't see any reason to break the race out from the others.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think it is pretty clear I blew the SA Derby figure, but then again, so did everyone else. I thought about it long and hard the day after the race, but I just couldn't see any reason to break the race out from the others.

What was it originally CJ?

[sammy the sage]

I think it is pretty clear I blew the SA Derby figure, but then again, so did everyone else. I thought about it long and hard the day after the race, but I just couldn't see any reason to break the race out from the others.

I think many blew the N.Y. figs as well....esp...Dr. Roman's PF #'s

[sammy the sage]

By the way...I think Cali. figs were right...I'm now thinking it's a matter of "FITNESS" ...they train them faster/harder out there....not as much coddling...I think it showed up...esp. since S.A. went back to DIRT!

[lamboguy]

I think it is pretty clear I blew the SA Derby figure, but then again, so did everyone else. I thought about it long and hard the day after the race, but I just couldn't see any reason to break the race out from the others.
i didn't think that it was that good a race either. i thought the WOOD was the best race and that turned out to be a blank.

everyday that goes by, i learn that this game of picking and spotting horses gets tougher and tougher.

i just wonder how accurate the numbers are that come out of HASTINGS, NORTHLANDS and ARAPHOE. ARAPAHOE got to be the touhest numbers to come up with with because they don't run that many thoroughbred races there on a daily basis.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think it is pretty clear I blew the SA Derby figure, but then again, so did everyone else. I thought about it long and hard the day after the race, but I just couldn't see any reason to break the race out from the others.
The SA Derby was run on the same day as the Amazombie/ Solar Rocket conundrum. They ran virtually the same time but received Beyers that were about 12pts apart...weird day.
Andy obviously felt the track was slowing down (that was his quote) so Amazombie got a bigger fig for his Potrero Grande win.

The thing about the SA Derby for me is how fast they went after the first half mile. No other 9f Derby prep went as fast from the 1/2m to the wire. They did run 9f in under 148.00.
I gave the race a final fig that was 5pts below par. To me the SA Derby was a race where the two big players (Creative Cause and I'll Have Another) almost got caught napping by racing each other and ignoring the lone frontrunner setting soft splits. They were barely able to catch him, and had to haul ass late to do so. Although they finished up well, the final fig was doomed to be low due to the very slow early pace.
We know that time and distance lost early is very tough to make up late.
Races just don't speed up on dirt the same way they slow down...a big pace fig can cause a speed fig to plummet to God knows where, but a slow pace fig will not automatically translate to a huge speed fig.
Come to think of it, the SA Dby was run like a nice long workout. Loped along early and finished up strongly...nice tightener for the Kentucky Derby :D

I don't think you blew the figure, nor me, nor Beyer.

[cj]

What was it originally CJ?

I didn't change it. I almost never go back and change a figure unless Equibase changes the times.

[turninforhome10]

I think if you look at the gallop out after the Wood and the Sa Derby, the Wood horses seemed much more fatigued than the SA Derby. This was my clue.
I got screwed up on Daddy's Nose Best and the track variant for Sunland and rated that much higher than it turned out to be.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I didn't change it. I almost never go back and change a figure unless Equibase changes the times.

You know I'm not ballbusting you.I just wondered if you thought it might be higher and what you were thinking about it,the process of it all.I definitely trust your opinion but I kind of read some self doubt into that post about the SA Derby.Just wondered what factors you were juggling.Nothing more.

[cj]

You know I'm not ballbusting you.I just wondered if you thought it might be higher and what you were thinking about it,the process of it all.I definitely trust your opinion but I kind of read some self doubt into that post about the SA Derby.Just wondered what factors you were juggling.Nothing more.

I know you weren't, didn't think that at all.

I used the same variant for all the races that day. But, the more I looked at the SA Derby and the figures the top two had run coming into it, it didn't make sense they would run well and regress at that point in their careers. I didn't find the pace was anything but average. It didn't look pedestrian to me, not for a 1m 1/8.

I debated just bumping it up about 3 lengths because it just seemed to be more correct. In the end though, I'm very reluctant to do that without some evidence other than past figures being better, so I didn't. It is the same type of decision I make many times every day. Nobody can get them all right.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I know you weren't, didn't think that at all.

I used the same variant for all the races that day. But, the more I looked at the SA Derby and the figures the top two had run coming into it, it didn't make sense they would run well and regress at that point in their careers. I didn't find the pace was anything but average. It didn't look pedestrian to me, not for a 1m 1/8.

I debated just bumping it up about 3 lengths because it just seemed to be more correct. In the end though, I'm very reluctant to do that without some evidence other than past figures being better, so I didn't. It is the same type of decision I make many times every day. Nobody can get them all right.

Glad you elaborated.Means much CJ.I imagine it is a pure nightmare making figures for younger horses.I know by now that even at 3 they are subject to serious mood swings figure wise,there probably is a lot of guesswork.You get plenty of them right bro,don't sweat it.I can testify!:cool:

[cj]

Race figures from the weekend:

Oaks 1/2: 90 3/4: 81 F: 80
Derby 1/2: 107 1m: 90 F: 80

[cj]

These are the figures I came up with for the Triple Crown series:


Bel 06/09 11 12.0 Belmont-G1 85 80 80
Pim 05/19 12 9.5 Preakns-G1 88 88 86
CD 05/05 12 10.0 KyDerby-G1 107 89 80

[lamboguy]

These are the figures I came up with for the Triple Crown series:


Bel 06/09 11 12.0 Belmont-G1 85 80 80
Pim 05/19 12 9.5 Preakns-G1 88 88 86
CD 05/05 12 10.0 KyDerby-G1 107 89 80 please correct me if i am wrong, its looks to me that those numbers are saying that the horses have regressed from the derby to the belmont.

what a joke this game has turned out to be. yesterday, PAYNTER, a horse that had just won a terrible never win 2 allowance race, almost won a $1 million race.

i understand that this is a game of attrition, and the last man standing is going to be the winner, but this is bazaar. the whole field staggered home after a very slow 49 second half. after a foal crop of over 10,000, these are the only 10 left standing and it is a poor representation compared to years ago,

those numbers do explain the lack of interest in the sport, true fans are not interested in watching horses run around the track that have trained on a clenbeuterol mix to gain a temporary edge of the competition that doesn't use anything. when time passes, the mix don't help the horse doesn't go fast anymore and you wind up with slower horses running on race tracks that are packed hard to give the impression that the horses are going fast. and then the horses come up with injury's.

[nijinski]

please correct me if i am wrong, its looks to me that those numbers are saying that the horses have regressed from the derby to the belmont.

what a joke this game has turned out to be. yesterday, PAYNTER, a horse that had just won a terrible never win 2 allowance race, almost won a $1 million race.

i understand that this is a game of attrition, and the last man standing is going to be the winner, but this is bazaar. the whole field staggered home after a very slow 49 second half. after a foal crop of over 10,000, these are the only 10 left standing and it is a poor representation compared to years ago,

those numbers do explain the lack of interest in the sport, true fans are not interested in watching horses run around the track that have trained on a clenbeuterol mix to gain a temporary edge of the competition that doesn't use anything. when time passes, the mix don't help the horse doesn't go fast anymore and you wind up with slower horses running on race tracks that are packed hard to give the impression that the horses are going fast. and then the horses come up with injury's.
Ah , don't be so hard on them , lol .We've seen slower Belmont Stakes before.
Drosselmeyer probably one of the more recent ones. That means one of these
horses could win the BC Classic.
Thunder Gulch's was even slower in the 1990's .