Why would anyone.......

[porchy44]

Why would anyone bet a longshot to show.

A 10/1 shot might pay $4.00 to show .
In the same race a 7/5 shot might pay $3.00 to show.
Seems risk to reward in comparison the longshot would be a bad bet.
(Maybe only exception would be a bridgejumping race.)

[Dave Schwartz]

I think that people remember that occasionally they get $187 to show or some other such ridiculous payoff.

[Tom]

I bet a horse a long time ago at OTB.
IT won, and paid $12.80 6.80 77.00

I bet win/place! :faint:

[shouldacoulda]

It really depends on the size of the pool, distribution within the pool and who comes in the money. I've gotten as little as 4.60 for place on a 10-1 and as much as 8.00+. Wed night a 80-1 shot paid $41.00 for place at Penn. Not too shabby. You really need to look at the pools before you bet. I learned that on this forum. There are a couple of good posts about it. Now I know what to expect when I put in a bet on place or show. Sometimes I don't even bother because there isn't enough money spread to make it worthwhile. This forum is a great source of information.

[shouldacoulda]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46831&highlight=calculate+show+payout

[Kevroc]

I can make a good case for show betting longshots in maiden races.

One of the hardest things to teach a horse is to pass other horses. The pack mentality to chase is instinctual.. but, to be in front of the pack and "chasing nothing" can be a difficult for some horses to embrace.

So I can see many 0 for 30 type runners that will be largely ignored on the tote but, may be the "fastest" horses. They just don't "want" to win.. so, good show probability.. maybe not good "bets".. as the show pool would need to dictate that.. but, their probabilty of hitting the board is in no way in sync with their win potential.

I don;t know if my answer helps but, I have def bet horses like this to show with confidence. $4.00 is normally just peachy, as oftentimes they seem (to me at least) much better than even money to run second or third.. but, maybe 20:1 or worse to actually hit the wire first.

[Robert Goren]

Before betting a long shot to show, you should take a look at the %s being bet in the show pool. If the highest % bet on a horse is below 65%, you are get a decent show payoff if the favorite runs out, but a huge one. When you are betting a long shot to show you are also betting that a heavy favorite will run out. I don't see how betting a long shot in the show pool can be profitable in the long run without a lot of money being bet on one of the other horses. The breakage in the show pool really hurts when the payoffs are low.

[GaryG]

If the longshot has fully exposed form he will almost surely be an underlay in the show pool. The ones that pay good show prices are more likely to be FTS, long layoff, etc.

[Robert Goren]

A note to those who interested, I am tentatively decided to start my thread on bridge jumper races on or about May 1.

[Linny]

Since show pools are impacted by who else finishes in the money, if you think a heavy favorite may run off the board and that the 2nd choice is also vulnerable, you don't really know who is going to WIN but you like a price horse a show bet might be OK. If you are right about the top choices and your longshot hits the board, you might cash a bigger ticket.

I do also like to bet against the bridgejumpers hitting ALL in the show pool against heavy favorites in small to moderate fields.

[HuggingTheRail]

Since show pools are impacted by who else finishes in the money, if you think a heavy favorite may run off the board and that the 2nd choice is also vulnerable, you don't really know who is going to WIN but you like a price horse a show bet might be OK. If you are right about the top choices and your longshot hits the board, you might cash a bigger ticket.

I do also like to bet against the bridgejumpers hitting ALL in the show pool against heavy favorites in small to moderate fields.

If you felt the top 2 favs were vulnerable to hit the board, and they have less than 75% of the show pool combined, I think you would likely do much better dutching horses in the win slot.

[davew]

I do sometimes - it depends why the horse is a longshot, how many 'better' horses in the race, how the show pool money is wagered.

I am not a big fan of longshot systems with a 10% win rate, even if they have +ve ROI - the thought of losing 30 or even 50 bets in a row makes me sick, especially when the show prices pay for many losing win bets.

I realize I am bucking breakage and track take in the show pool, but frequently they pay more than favorites do to win and if alot of money is on a vulnerable horse that my longshot would possibly knock out of the winners in the pool, I look at it closer.

There are many options at the track, why not pick and choose which to use and when?

so why would anyone ever bet the Pick 6 ?

[therussmeister]

Why would anyone bet a longshot to show.

A 10/1 shot might pay $4.00 to show .
In the same race a 7/5 shot might pay $3.00 to show.
Seems risk to reward in comparison the longshot would be a bad bet.
(Maybe only exception would be a bridgejumping race.)
As a person who bets about 650 show bets per year, I have to say, it would be rare to get prices like you outlined. Typically a 10/1 would be at least $5.00 and 7/5 is virtually always below $3.00. Net pool pricing gives you a higher price on longshots to show, and a lower price on the favorites, compared to the old method of calculating payouts. If you were inspired to write this thread whilst watching Aqueduct this week, Aqueduct show prices were skewed in several races, paying quite generous show prices to low odds horses, which sometimes happens for a few weeks with the switch to the outer track.

As far as risk goes, you are implying a long shot to win is also a long shot to show, but that is not the type of show bet you want to make. I specifically look for horses that have a poor chance to win but a great chance to come in second or third. Most of my bets are on horses that I figure should be the heavy favorite to finish precisely third. I will accept a minimum of $3.00 and import tote information into excel to tell me minimum show prices on horses of interest.

For the record, my main business is superfectas. Once I have structured my superfecta wagers, it only takes me about 10 seconds to determine if my key horse would make a good show bet.