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View Full Version : Post your MLB season win total over/under plays


Valuist
03-22-2012, 08:48 PM
Arizona 86.5 Atlanta 86.5 Baltimore 69.5 Boston 90 Chi Cubs 73.5 Chi Sox 76 Cincinnati 87.5 Cleveland 78.5 Colorado 82 Detroit 92 Houston 63 Kansas City 79 LA Angels 92 LA Dodgers 80.5 Miami 86.5 Milwaukee 85 Minnesota 73.5 NYM 72 NY Yanks 93 Oakland 71.5 Philly 92.5 Pitt 74 San Diego 73.5 San Fran 87 Seattle 71 St Louis 83.5 Tampa 87 Texas 91.5 Toronto 81 Washington 84

A few thoughts:
Cincinnati OVER 87.5--came back to earth after a big 2010 season. Pujols and Fielder leave division. Houston is horrible and Cubs not much better

Cubs UNDER 73.5---Epstein making no bones about rebuilding. They could be good.....in 2014. They'll suck this year.

White Sox UNDER 76--South side won't be much better, if at all, than the North side. Would need a return to 2010 form by Dunn for any shot at an over.

KC---OVER 79---its time to put up or shut up w/all their prospects. We've heard for a few years now that their system is loaded. Other than Detroit, the division is terrible so they should be able to top .500 for first time since 2003.

Philly OVER 92.5---a big number but who's taking them down in that division, Miami? I don't see that. Too much starting pitching here.

PITT OVER 74---They were on pace for a .500 season last year but totally quit late. Two terrible teams below them, and two of the best hitters leave the division

OTM Al
03-22-2012, 10:23 PM
Yankees over, very good team this year.
Phillies under, getting old and injured. Further offensive decline will increase low scoring losses
Baltimore over, not great, but not that bad
White Sox over, number two team in division should be closer to .500

jdhanover
03-22-2012, 10:46 PM
If I were a sports bettor I would go:

Cincy Over (agree with your take)

ChiSox - Over - think they will surprise in a fairly weak division after Detroit. ventura is right guy for them post-Ozzie. Dunn will bounce back as will Floyd

KC - Under - everyone thinks they will be good. I dont think so

Pitt - over - better than people realize

Cubs/Phil - pass - lines seem dead on

Would add SEA over ...just a hunch

Marlin
03-22-2012, 10:50 PM
Detroit - Under
Minny - Over
NYM - Under
St. Louis - Under
Cleve - Under

Playing against Detroit, Cabrera a huge liability at 3rd. It won't work. Minny over, hoping Mourneau can play everyday. Mets always under. St Louis is not the same team. Cleveland is a tough one. Jiminez is the key. I think he goes the wrong way.

HoofedInTheChest
03-24-2012, 10:10 PM
Toronto - OVER - 81
Improved pitching rotation, deeper bullpen, actual closer. The most explosive offence in baseball, 18-4 in the pre-season, and counting. ;)

Go Jays!

ElKabong
03-25-2012, 01:24 AM
Reds, under. Madsen out for the yr

Rangers under. Felix is no cinch, Nathan's arm isn't either.....You take the 2nd or 3rd best closer in the game and replace him with an old arm off major surgery.....still make it as a wild card or div winner

Detroit, under. Horrible on defense at the corners. Late in the yr it'll catch up to the pitching staff having to get 30 outs a game, every game

Houston, under. I feel sorry for Stro's fans. Tough road they're on...been there, done that as a R's fan

NYY, under. Joba out? Team getting old in some places. Best 2b in the game.

Boston, over. Dead cat bounce with Bobby V

Valuist
03-26-2012, 11:21 AM
People are underestimating St. Louis. The assumption is that with Pujols gone, they'll just go downhill. They are forgetting that Adam Wainwright is back; 39-19 with a 2.50 ERA in the 2009-2010 seasons. When A-Rod left Seattle, they went out and won something like 115 games the next season.

exactatom
03-26-2012, 03:16 PM
Reds Under closer out for year
White Sox Over A lot of bad teams in the division
Cardinals Under Cheap ownership group.
Phils Under Beginning the downhill slide
Brewers Over In a division with Cubs and Astros and Front Row Amy is worth 3 wins herself.

Valuist
03-26-2012, 04:20 PM
Reds Under closer out for year
White Sox Over A lot of bad teams in the division
Cardinals Under Cheap ownership group.
Phils Under Beginning the downhill slide
Brewers Over In a division with Cubs and Astros and Front Row Amy is worth 3 wins herself.

Yeah, and the White Sox are one of those bad teams in the AL Central.

Before people jump on the Reds UNDER bandwagon, it should be pointed out there may be no falloff going from Madson to Marshall. Madson was a proven closer for only one year, and in that year he had a higher ERA and WHIP while pitching less innings than Marshall.

1st time lasix
03-26-2012, 09:27 PM
if the blue jays and orioles are going to be better.....than either the bosox or rays will be under. Which is it?

Valuist
03-26-2012, 11:11 PM
if the blue jays and orioles are going to be better.....than either the bosox or rays will be under. Which is it?

What about the Yankees? Of the 3 teams at the top, that's who I would take. They are priced for absolute perfection. And talk of Pineda's fastball in the mid 80s. No margin for error with 97 wins.

Bettowin
03-27-2012, 03:41 PM
Parlay Cubs under and Twins over 73.5.

lamboguy
03-27-2012, 03:44 PM
if the blue jays and orioles are going to be better.....than either the bosox or rays will be under. Which is it?
I'd say the sox

OTM Al
03-27-2012, 04:07 PM
if the blue jays and orioles are going to be better.....than either the bosox or rays will be under. Which is it?

Why? Most games are against teams outside the division.

andtheyreoff
03-27-2012, 05:55 PM
Some notable selections:

Yankees-OVER- Potential for a 100 win season this year, IMO.
Tigers-OVER- With a star-studded lineup and a pitiful division, 100 wins is definitely a possibility, perhaps even more than that.
Phillies-UNDER- Their lack of an offense will likely overshadow their star pitching.
Nationals-OVER- From the laughingstocks of baseball to NL East contenders in just three years. Their current lineup got a solid 80-81 season last year, and if the Chosen Ones (Strasburg and Harper) materialize, they will be dangerous.
Cardinals-OVER- Somehow, I don't think the loss of Pujols will automatically negate 7 wins, not to mention potenial postseason heroics.
Reds-UNDER- Not that they will be a bad team, but 88 wins is giving them way too much credit.
Dodgers-OVER- But not by much.

Johnny V
03-28-2012, 08:06 AM
CHW- over
KC -under
MIN -under
OAK- under
STL -over
TEX -over
WAS -under

OTM Al
07-09-2012, 11:49 AM
Yankees over, very good team this year.
Phillies under, getting old and injured. Further offensive decline will increase low scoring losses
Baltimore over, not great, but not that bad
White Sox over, number two team in division should be closer to .500


At the half way point so thought I'd dredge this up and see how we're all doing. Like mine for a clean sweep

Yankees (over 93) 52-33. Not the team expected at the time, but playing very well. Expect them to win AL East at around 97-98 games
Phillies (under 92.5) 37-50. This one might pay by August....
Baltimore (over 69.5) 45-40. Probably will finish slightly under .500 but should easily clear this
White Sox (over 76) 47-38. Did I say second best team in the Central?

Don't have a dime on it of course, but glad I still know a little about the game (and a little luck doesn't hurt either....)

Bettowin
07-09-2012, 04:24 PM
I took a parlay of the Cubs under and the Twins over 73.5.

With Cubs at 33 wins and the Twins at 36 I have a chance if the Twins can pick up the pace:)

Valuist
07-09-2012, 08:20 PM
At the half way point so thought I'd dredge this up and see how we're all doing. Like mine for a clean sweep

Yankees (over 93) 52-33. Not the team expected at the time, but playing very well. Expect them to win AL East at around 97-98 games
Phillies (under 92.5) 37-50. This one might pay by August....
Baltimore (over 69.5) 45-40. Probably will finish slightly under .500 but should easily clear this
White Sox (over 76) 47-38. Did I say second best team in the Central?

Don't have a dime on it of course, but glad I still know a little about the game (and a little luck doesn't hurt either....)

Very well done.

OTM Al
07-09-2012, 10:43 PM
Very well done.

Not until it's October. Baseball can be funny like that, but will admit the picks do look pretty solid.

Valuist
07-10-2012, 10:23 AM
Not until it's October. Baseball can be funny like that, but will admit the picks do look pretty solid.

True but here's what you need:

NYY need to go at least 42-33. Decent but not a lock.
Philly would need to go 56-19 for you to lose. That's 75%. Its baseball. It has no chance.
Baltimore needs to go 25-52 for you to lose. This would take a huge collapse. I guess not as unlikely as Philly winning 75% but not far off. White Sox only need to go 30-47 for you to win. While I think that team has some holes, this looks like money in the bank.

3-1 is a lock and 4-0 is likely.

ElKabong
07-11-2012, 11:42 AM
don't count on NYY or Texas to make their #'s until you see their pitching thru August. Both staffs are thin, getting thinner

I'm concerned about the way Wash / Maddux handled this staff from opening day. First 45 days they were running a full court press w/ the staff-- extending every key pitcher in the rotation & pen....half of em are on the DL NOW

andtheyreoff
10-03-2012, 06:15 PM
So, how did it turn out?

Arizona 86.5
UNDER

Atlanta 86.5
OVER

Baltimore 69.5
OVER. Yeah, don't think anyone saw this one coming.

Boston 90
UNDER. At best, 20 games below the prediction. Disastrous season on all accounts.

Chi Cubs 73.5
UNDER. Had a brief run in July where they won 11 out of 15 but that couldn't save them from losing 100. It's gonna take a lot more than Theo to get this team back on track, IMO.

Chi Sox 76
OVER. A dissapointing end, but you can't say this season was anything but a good one, considering they were not predicted to do much (SI predicted them to come in last). We'll see if that will keep up next year.

Cincinnati 87.5
OVER. I really underestimated them this year. Absolutely dominant season.

Cleveland 78.5
UNDER. When you look at their record, remember that they were 4 games up in the AL Central on May 17.

Colorado 82
UNDER. One must wonder how the over/under guy came up with this figure for a team that wound up having an injury riddled offense and no pitching, plus just 73 wins last year. Brilliant.

Detroit 92
UNDER. I'm glad I can't actually bet on these totals, else I would've placed way more than I should've on the OVER. Still wound up winning the division, though.

Houston 63
UNDER. I think my favorite part about their seasons was that they were 1 game below .500 on May 25.

Kansas City 79
UNDER. That's 17 losing seasons in 18 years for this club. At least they got third place...

LA Angels 92
UNDER. Keep in mind this figure was set before Trout was called up and starting dominating. Talk about underachieving...

LA Dodgers 80.5
OVER. Really bad season. They had a 7.5 game lead at the end of May in the NL West, blew that in about 5 weeks, snared Ramirez, Victorino, Gonzalez, and Beckett, to go along with Kemp, Ethier and Kershaw, and still couldn't get into the playoffs. Now THAT is underachiving.

Miami 86.5
UNDER. $22,000,000 spent on Reyes, Buherle and Bell combined this year, all for 0 days above .500 after June 15. Nice going, Marlins! :ThmbUp:

Milwaukee 85
UNDER. Put in a nice run for the wild card, but it wasn't enough to get that spot...or over on this.

Minnesota 73.5
UNDER. Had a truly horrendous start, which doomed them to their horrendous season, their second one after they fell off a cliff.
On a relate note, it boggles the mind how a team with TWO former MVPs on it can have back to back seasons that are that bad. Does everyone else there just suck that much?

NYM 72
OVER. That brief time when they were in first place seems so long ago now...

NY Yanks 93
OVER. Wild season. .500 on May 21, 10 games up on July 17, and since September 1 or so engaged in a tremendous divisional battle with the O's. Chance to win it tonight. :ThmbUp:

Oakland 71.5
OVER. Not much you can say that hasn't been said already.

Philly 92.5
UNDER. A total non-factor after being factor pretty much every day for the last 4 years. At least they put in that little wild card run, to give their fans a little something to cheer for.

Pitt 74
OVER. Regardless of the dissapointment the fans must have felt, it has to be a major accomplishment for them that they were still in contention with three weeks to go, after being dead by mid-August for the past 20 years.

San Diego 73.5
OVER. Rebounded from a terrible first half to have the second best record in the NL West in the second half, and as such just squeaked over the OVER.

San Fran 87
OVER

Seattle 71
OVER.Had a surge in July and August to get above their prediction but didn't make a dent in the AL West that whole time. WTG.

St Louis 83.5
OVER. Talk about underselling a team. I mean, was Pujols really worth 6.5 wins?

Tampa 87
OVER.

Texas 91.5
OVER. In the next 30 minutes or so, however, this season could become a very dark one...

Toronto 81
UNDER. I don't think this has been very well publicized, because no one cares about the Blue Jays, but this wound up being their worst season since 2004. One of these years, I guess.

Washington 84
OVER. It's easy to forget, because they've been very good this whole season, but the Nationals are definitely one of those surprise teams of the year, going from 103 losses just three years ago to NL East champs. It's also the first playoff trip for the team since 1981 (which was a record for playoff futility), and the first time a team based in Washington is going since 1933 (which covers 46 seasons of baseball). A great story for sure.