On Fire Baby/Watchmaker/Derby Candidate?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I read this little tidbit at the end of Mike Watchmaker's blog yesterday;"It might be time to take Alternation a little more seriously in the handicap division.Yes the speedy Tapizar was taken in hand and conceeded the early lead to him in the Razorback,a lead that Alternation never relinquished.But when a stone-cold closer like Alternation wins with a style that had previously been completely alien to him,it's noteworthy,and very good sign.

On Fire Baby,the filly who remains on the fringes of the kentucky Derby discussion,was much better winning the Honeybee than her 2 length margin would suggest."

He obviously placed this back to back for us to draw our own conclusion.Both races run less than an hour apart on Saturday at Oaklawn.

Honeybee-23.3-47.1-111.3-137-143.3-99 BSF

Razorback-23.3-47-111.4-137-143.2-100 BSF


These races were also run nearly identically except On Fire baby caught the horse in front of her.

If Watchmaker is that fired up about Alternation and the older male handicap division,what does that say about this filly?

Or do you think that what the filly did casts a bad light on Alternation and Tapizar?

Those two at least have some stakes seasoning vs males even though the Beyer's aren't eye popping.And at this point while some of the winning moves of the 3yo's looked good none of the figures are run away just yet.This filly to me after this race should be just as likely a contender as any of the boys,because with all we're waiting for that one,big,blowup performance.

[NTamm1215]

I read this little tidbit at the end of Mike Watchmaker's blog yesterday;"It might be time to take Alternation a little more seriously in the handicap division.Yes the speedy Tapizar was taken in hand and conceeded the early lead to him in the Razorback,a lead that Alternation never relinquished.But when a stone-cold closer like Alternation wins with a style that had previously been completely alien to him,it's noteworthy,and very good sign.

On Fire Baby,the filly who remains on the fringes of the kentucky Derby discussion,was much better winning the Honeybee than her 2 length margin would suggest."

He obviously placed this back to back for us to draw our own conclusion.Both races run less than an hour apart on Saturday at Oaklawn.

Honeybee-23.3-47.1-111.3-137-143.3-99 BSF

Razorback-23.3-47-111.4-137-143.2-100 BSF


These races were also run nearly identically except On Fire baby caught the horse in front of her.

If Watchmaker is that fired up about Alternation and the older male handicap division,what does that say about this filly?

Or do you think that what the filly did casts a bad light on Alternation and Tapizar?

Those two at least have some stakes seasoning vs males even though the Beyer's aren't eye popping.And at this point while some of the winning moves of the 3yo's looked good none of the figures are run away just yet.This filly to me after this race should be just as likely a contender as any of the boys,because with all we're waiting for that one,big,blowup performance.

The list of 3YO fillies that Watchmaker has in front of On Fire Baby on his Watchmaker Watch is frightening.

For the last year, he has been over-compensating for what he felt like was a perceived East Coast bias. He has routinely over-valued Californians, and some of them are indefensible.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The list of 3YO fillies that Watchmaker has in front of On Fire Baby on his Watchmaker Watch is frightening.

For the last year, he has been over-compensating for what he felt like was a perceived East Coast bias. He has routinely over-valued Californians, and some of them are indefensible.

If not the Kentucky Derby I'd at least like to see her attempt the Arkansas Derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

C'mon man.Tell me something you think about this filly.Can't get her off the brain.I didn't think I had to beg for responses about a fast 3yo in March from horseplayers on a good site.Jesus!

[Beachbabe]

C'mon man.Tell me something you think about this filly.Can't get her off the brain.I didn't think I had to beg for responses about a fast 3yo in March from horseplayers on a good site.Jesus!


He could prolly help you, but he's not a member here. There was someone who impersonated him awhile back but I haven't seen him around lately.

;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

He could prolly help you, but he's not a member here. There was someone who impersonated him awhile back but I haven't seen him around lately.

;)


Arrrrgggghhhh!!!What do you think there Babe?!

[plainolebill]

I'll tell you what I think: I wouldn't use Tapizar as a point of reference for who's good and who isn't. IMO he hasn't got any heart, Alternation may or may not be a good horse but beating Tapizar, in my mind, doesn't make him one.

So who knows about the filly?

[Father Guy]

On Fire Baby's winning time performance was fair and no more; Alternation's was modest at best and noticeably slower than On Fire Baby's once weight carried and weight for age are taken into account, as they always should be.

The best relative time performances on that card came from Whinston in race 8 and Awesome Truth in race 2.

On Fire Baby has shown enough from a form perspective to be just about on the very fringe of the Derby picture but she has still to post a time performance anywhere near as good.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Antithesis.Very good.

Still were talking about an early 3 year old filly in reference to some older males in stakes races.If their mediocrity is a point of reference then this filly has a bright future.It's all uphill for a February 3yo doing good things.

CJ I hate to openly reference you every time I'm interested in some figures,but could you please give us the numbers for these 2 races?

[nijinski]

I'm impressed she's gone over a mile and done so well with her pedigree .

I'm not looking forward to her in the Derby though , at best the Preakness.
Don't want to see her getting bumped around with that big field and anticipate her chances with the added distance .

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm impressed she's gone over a mile and done so well with her pedigree .

I'm not looking forward to her in the Derby though , at best the Preakness.
Don't want to see her getting bumped around with that big field and anticipate her chances with the added distance .

I wasn't aware of the distance limitations.That changes everything.They'll be smart to keep her in her own division if that's the case.Not agreeing with you that she's fragile in a crowd because she's a gal though!:cool:

[nijinski]

I wasn't aware of the distance limitations.That changes everything.They'll be smart to keep her in her own division if that's the case.Not agreeing with you that she's fragile in a crowd because she's a gal though!:cool:

You may want to watch and read about two Classics that were memorable.
Genuine Risk and Winning Colors in the their Preakness bids.
One was a mugging and the other just plain stupidity , Day and WC .

[depalma113]

If not the Kentucky Derby I'd at least like to see her attempt the Arkansas Derby.

I thought they pretty much have said her next start will be the Arkansas Derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You may want to watch and read about two Classics that were memorable.
Genuine Risk and Winning Colors in the their Preakness bids.
One was a mugging and the other just plain stupidity , Day and WC .

Duly noted.I look at Rachel Alexandra imposing her will on that crop in the Preakness as evidence of a good filly able to do damage.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought they pretty much have said her next start will be the Arkansas Derby.

I didn't see that Depalma.That has me really excited.:ThmbUp: